Short-term weather fluctuations should not blind us from what long -term climate trends are telling us. Other unexpected aspects of complex system dynamics are the Butterfly Effect and the descendent benefit of epidemics.
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: ATMOSPHERE AND WEATHER - 2.1 LOCAL ENERGY BU...George Dumitrache
A comprehensive presentation of subchapter 2.1 Local Energy Budgets, from the second chapter of Physical Geography, AS Cambridge, Atmosphere and Weather.
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: ATMOSPHERE AND WEATHER - 2.2 THE GLOBAL ENER...George Dumitrache
A comprehensive presentation of subchapter 2.2 The Global Energy Budget, from the second chapter of Physical Geography, AS Cambridge, Atmosphere and Weather.
The attached powerpoint presentation contains information about the Meteorology - 2nd unit in Open Elective - Air Pollution and Control Engineering, for affiliated institutions of Anna University.
OCE551 - Air Pollution and Control Engineering
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: ATMOSPHERE AND WEATHER - 2.1 LOCAL ENERGY BU...George Dumitrache
A comprehensive presentation of subchapter 2.1 Local Energy Budgets, from the second chapter of Physical Geography, AS Cambridge, Atmosphere and Weather.
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: ATMOSPHERE AND WEATHER - 2.2 THE GLOBAL ENER...George Dumitrache
A comprehensive presentation of subchapter 2.2 The Global Energy Budget, from the second chapter of Physical Geography, AS Cambridge, Atmosphere and Weather.
The attached powerpoint presentation contains information about the Meteorology - 2nd unit in Open Elective - Air Pollution and Control Engineering, for affiliated institutions of Anna University.
OCE551 - Air Pollution and Control Engineering
Jason Thompson helped Dr. Oliver Hemmers communicate why climate models fail.
Biography
Dr. Oliver Hemmers received his Ph.D. in physics in 1993 from the Technical University in Berlin, Germany, with specialization in x-ray atomic and molecular spectroscopy. Recent research focuses on developments of biofuels and new materials for hydrogen fuel storage. He currently manages a multiyear, multimillion-dollar biodiesel project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. Over the past 10 years, he has been a principal investigator or co-PI on several research projects at UNLV totaling more than $6 million. Hemmers has made approximately 200 presentations at national and international meetings, published approximately 90 research articles, written one book, and holds one patent. He is a member of the American Physical Society and a reviewer for the American Institute of Physics and the Institute of Physics.
Jason Thompson is an alternative energy photojournalist who wrote more than 300 articles in Diesel Power which around 2010 was the #1 selling automotive magazine at Walmart. He now studies the visual framing of climate control from 1824 to the present.
IB Extended Essay Sample APA 2018-2019 by WritingMetier.comWriting Metier
APA style International Baccalaureate Extended Essay Sample years 2018-2019 written by WritingMetier.com
Topic:
Adverse effects of global warming and what can be done to reduce it?
Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingNASBLA
State Climatologist David Zierden presented Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Boating to the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators on September 9, 2008
1. My career from technician to scientist-engineer
2. How Climate Change Impacts Hurricanes and Weather Extremes
3. Finding Truth, Evaluating “Fake News” which confuses Weather & Climate.
4. What we can do to stop global warming.
An overview of the scientific evidence that climate change is occurring, and what was normal in the past is not going to be normal for the future. Recent extreme-weather events -- snowstorms, last summer's derecho, and two severe hurricanes in the space of just over a year, are harbingers of more to come. Because the future will be different, we must use future-based modeling rather than historical data to prepare.
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Global Warming: A Climate in Crisis Essay
Summary: It is not disputed that mean temperature of Earth has increased by 0.8° C since the early 20th century. Various factors affecting Earth’s surface temperature have been examined and it is found that no mathematical correlation exists between those factors and Global Warming. It is suggested that Earth dynamically keeps its surface temperature.
John Holdren on Climate Change Challenge 2018 02-15Vincent Everts
In Nantucket I attended an amazing and scary presentation by John Holdren on Climate Change. John Paul Holdren was the senior advisor to President Barack Obama on science and technology issues through his roles as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).
Holdren was previously the Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program at the School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and Director of the Woods Hole Research Center.
The EconomistClimate and the weatherIs it global warming.docxbob8allen25075
The Economist
Climate and the weather
Is it global warming or just the weather?
Scientists are getting more confident about attributing heatwaves and droughts to human influence
May 9th 2015 | From the print edition
Timekeeper
EARLY this year, touring a drought-stricken fruit farm in California, Barack Obama cited the state’s three-year dry spell, the worst on record, as an example of the harm that climate change can cause. Politicians like this sort of pronouncement. David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, said in 2014 that he very much suspected that climate change was behind floods in parts of the country’s south-west. In contrast, climate scientists have been ultra-cautious about attributing specific weather events to global warming. Because the weather is by its nature variable, it is impossible to know whether climate change caused any particular drought or flood. So the scientists have steered away from making firm connections.
Until now. A new branch of climate science is starting to provide answers to the question: was this drought (or heatwave or storm) at least partly attributable to climate change? In some cases, the answer seems to be a cautious yes. As the research progresses, it could change public perceptions and government policy.
For years, the central debate of climate science has focused on how much global mean surface temperatures would rise by 2100. This is so important that a target for mean temperature rises is likely to be embodied in an international treaty to be signed in Paris later this year. The increase in the mean is the simplest way to measure the long-term impact of climate change. But it has drawbacks. It makes global warming seem like something that will happen in 100 years’ time. Most people do not think about global temperatures but local ones. And climate change affects ecosystems not just through increases in the mean, but also through changes in the extremes—more intense droughts, say. Extremes also have a profound impact on people: a heatwave in 2003 caused about 70,000 premature deaths in Europe. Focusing on links between climate change and the local weather thus makes sense in terms of both science and public understanding.
In principle, attributing the weather to climate change might seem straightforward. The two are so closely related that the climate can be defined as the average daily weather over a long period (or, as Edward Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist, once put it, “climate is what you expect; weather is what you get”).
Of butterflies and bad weather
In practice, though, there are so many influences upon the weather—famously expressed by Lorenz’s idea of a butterfly’s wingbeat in one part of the world causing a hurricane in another—that isolating any individual factor is hard. That remains true. It is not possible to say categorically that climate change has caused any individual storm, flood or heatwave.
But scientific attribution does not require certainty; it de.
The True Science of Climate Change - April 2023 r3.pdfKeith_Shotbolt
This Study reviews the sciences of Earth's atmospheric circulation, the Greenhouse Effect and the Water Cycle. It includes observations by 15 leading authorities, and concludes that increased atmospheric water vapour from crop irrigation is by far the main cause of observed changes to climate. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, still less than 1 part in 2,000 (0.05%), has had no identifiable influence on world temperatures, polar sea ice extents, and glaciers.
COVID's Impact on Inflation and Income EqualityPaul H. Carr
Will inflation from the COVID recovery be permanent?
What does the Federal Reserve Predict?
Has the COVID recovery increased income equality?
Why do job openings now outnumber job seekers?
Wage Serfs: Principles & Politics Trumping PeoplePaul H. Carr
Presented at Thoreau Society Annual Gathering
Higher taxes in Europe result in more income equality than in the US.
Invisible hand of Adam Smith's economics versus the Tragedy of the Commons
Golden Rule of Economics: Those who have the gold make the rules.
Overcoming Limitations of "Naturalism Without Religion"Paul H. Carr
Tillich’s existential and Whitehead’s process theologies overcome the limitations of “naturalism without religion.”
Tillich, Wildman, Whitehead, and Bracken update the Bible’s promise of eternal life as well as the meaning and goal of history. Tillich’s description of religion as the Dimension of Depth resonates with Goodenough’s "Sacred Depths of Nature."
For Whitehead, the goal of the Universe is the production of beauty.
“The thirst for beauty that permeates our lives is an opening to transcendence,” according to theologian Philip Hefner.
GREEN ENERGY’S ECONOMIC PROGRESS
Reducing carbon missions by 51% in 2030
-Environmental, social, and governance funds have more than tripled to reach $2 Trillion.
-Three new “Mean Green” board members are forcing Exxon to clean up its act.
-GM is betting big on batteries for electric vehicles with a new $2.3 billion plant in Ohio.
-Advances in electric vehicles and next-generation nuclear reactors are helping the US achieve its goal of reducing carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.
ACHIEVE NET ZERO CO2 BY 2050 or an Economic Depression
ECONOMICS (GDP)
- Increasing climate extremes cost $390 billion in 2020.
- Present trends indicate a 10%-GDP-decrease depression
-Carbon Fee Plus Dividend solution
NON-CARBON EMITTING TECHNOLOGIES:
Electric Vehicles (EVs) charged by
Next generation nuclear reactors
Greener Power for More Electric VehiclesPaul H. Carr
GREENER POWER FOR THE INCREASING NUMBER OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV)
by Paul H. Carr
Charge EVs at Night
- Electricity demand from 12 PM to 6 AM is very low.
Install PV charging stations for daytime charging.
More electricity by using the waste heat of present generators.
-Coal, nuclear 32% efficient
- Natural gas turbines 44% efficient
Replace carbon emitting coal and gas with nuclear.
Post-COVID Economic Challenges: Unemployment, Increasing Inflation & National...Paul H. Carr
Post-COVID Economic Challenges: Unemployment, Income inequality, Increasing Inflation, & National Debt.
Paul H Carr summarized a webinar by the following: Eric Rosengren, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; Wendy Edelberg, Brookings Institution, and Philip Swagel, Director, Congressional Budget Office. Would less inflationary and debt increasing relief act have been better than President Biden’s $1.9 Trillion bill?
A Newer, Millennial Testament of the Continuing Creation since 100 CE.Paul H. Carr
A NEWER, MILLENNIAL TESTAMENT of the Continuing Creation since 100 CE."
The Old Testament was from about 1500 BCE to 0. The New Testament was added and completed in 100 CE.
Let's add a Newer (Millennial) Testament of the 1900-year-increase in knowledge, wisdom, and truth to the New Testament:
newer science, poetry (Psalms), and literature. The universe is still awakening and we are called to be co-creators in the continuing creation. A Newer Testament , which updates the Bible's flat earth cosmology, would help in correcting the misinformation in the popular Creation Museum in Kentucky.
Quantum Mechanics: Electrons, Transistors, & LASERS. Paul H. Carr
Quantum Mechanics, QM, has enabled new technologies that impact our daily lives. Yet, there have been at least 14 different QM interpretations in the last century. “If you think you understand QM, you don’t,” said Richard Feynman. Our macroscopic language is inadequate to describe the wave-particle duality of microscopic QM particles. Mathematics works better. This talk illuminated the production of the play Copenhagen, in which German physicist Werner Heisenberg, who directed the German attempt to make an atom bomb, visited Niels Bohr in Denmark during WWII.
A NEWER TESTAMENT of Continuous Creation since 100 CEPaul H. Carr
Old Testament 1500 BCE to 0.
New Testament 0 to 100 CE. A total of 1600 yr.
1900 years since the Bible was completed in 100 CE.
Let’s add a Newer Testament of the 1900-year-increase in knowledge, wisdom, & truth to the “New Testament.”
-Newer Science, Cosmology’s Century
-New Poetry (Psalms)
-Hymns
-Literature & Theology
An awakening universe with increasing globalization.
NEW HOT-to-COOL COSMOLOGY: Amazing Progress Yet Greater QuestionsPaul H. Carr
Astronomy has progressed from astrology to precision, hot-to-cool, cosmology. Georges Lemaitre, using Einstein’s General Relativity, predicted in 1930s that our universe expanded from a primeval atom in a hot big bang. In 1964, radio astronomers detected the whispering cosmic microwave background radiation from this hot cosmic explosion. Since 1993, an increasing number of satellites have measured that this Planck black-body radiation has cooled, as it expanded, to a very cool 2.725 K. It also has fluctuations of one part in 100,000.
Alan Guth’ inflationary universe theory predicted this as arising from quantum fluctuations at the “Beginning.”
Climate Change Extremes: Increasing Wildfires & HurricanesPaul H. Carr
1. CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES: INCREASING FOREST FIRES AND HURRICANES
2. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE:
CO2 from fossil fuel burning is warming our Earth via the Greenhouse effect
3. WHAT WE CAN DO IMMEDIATELY:
A more vegetarian diet.
From Reductionism to Emergence: Transcending Death During COVID-19Paul H. Carr
How might we reduce the above-normal death rates from COVID-19? Our hope is for science to develop a vaccine. The reductive sequencing of the parts of the coronavirus could help. Francis Collins, who led the team that developed the science for sequencing the parts
of the human genome, entitled his book The Language of God, God being the holistic creator. Religion helps us transcend death. Science itself is moving from reductionism to emergent holism, which is closer to religion.
Scientists like Wigner, Deacon, and Dickerson are developing an emergent and non-materialist worldview. Theologians Clayton and Nurnberger are working on the emergence of spirit. Carol and John Albright envision a creative Interactive World, Interactive God. Cardiologist Van Lommel’s 20-year observations of near-death experiences give evidence for life after death.
CREATIVITY: Individual & CollaborativePaul H. Carr
The Creative Process
1. Individual
"There is no logical way to discover. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order.” Albert Einstein
- The 3-step creative process: informed, unformed, transformed
- Neuroscience: listening to music inspires creativity
2. Collaborative
- Searching for truth to expand and share our limited knowledge and worldviews.
Confront COVID-19 and Climate Change NowPaul H. Carr
COVID-19 & CLIMATE: BOTH GLOBAL, TEMPERATURE INCREASE
If we wait for a crisis, it’s too late:
Time after drastic action: COVID, months;
CLIMATE, century.
The COVID “stay in place” reduced greenhouse emissions up to 17%. Reduced population.
Non-US-Deficit Increasing solution: Carbon fee plus dividend for all.
What we can do: more vegetarian diet, less airline travel, more nuclear reactors
From Theology to Fractals: Mystical to Mathematical BeautyPaul H. Carr
Mystical to Mathematical Beauty.
I traced the transition from mystical to mathematical beauty in American thought: from the theologian Jonathan Edwards in the 18th century, through natural philosopher David H. Thoreau's "Walden" in the 19th, to the mathematician, Benoit Mandelbrot's "Fractal Geometry of Nature" in the 20th century. Chapter 4 of Paul H. Carr's "Beauty in Science and Spirit,"
Paul Tillich: Climate Prophecy versus ProfitPaul H. Carr
Paul Tillich’s 1962 sermon, “Man and Earth,” was prophetic. He said, “ We have no guarantee against man-made floods….” Floods are now increasing. Global ice is melting. Sea levels are rising four times faster than in 1900 from global warming.
What are the preliminary and ultimate concerns of those who deny what 97% of climate scientists have concluded? That is, increasing carbon dioxide emissions, mostly from our profitable fossil fuel burning, are warming our planet via the Greenhouse effect.
Let’s invest in jobs with-long term payoff. Until we get a vaccine, there will be continuing unemployment in the jobs where people are close together: restaurants, theaters, sporting events, airplanes, and cruises. Grants for more energy efficient homes and industrial buildings would make jobs for local contractors. The resulting lower energy costs with lower carbon dioxide emissions would repay the cost several times over. This comes when science tells us there is no time for delay on dealing with climate change.
Joe Biden’s “build back better” will immediately invest in sustainable job creation, new industries, and re-invigorated regional economies.
To outcompete China, Americans could invent, commercialize and manufacture the new battery technology needed to store solar and wind energy and for electric vehicles. Businesses and job creators all across our country would supply the materials and parts.
Millions of construction workers are needed to build affordable housing and to rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, including aging nuclear reactors. These generate 20% of our electricity with no carbon dioxide emissions. Americans are developing advanced reactors that are smaller, safer, and more efficient at half today’s construction costs.
Reform COVID19's Inequality to Avoid RevolutionsPaul H. Carr
COVID19 amplifies inequality, increasing tensions between poor Blacks, Whites, Police, and Immigrants. Economically disadvantaged Blacks joined by Whites are taking to the streets to demand reform. Economic inequality contributed to the French Revolution and to our Civil War, with the most casualties in our history.
We need reform to prevent revolutions. Karl Marx’s wrote his 1847 Communist Manifesto in response the newly rich industrialist’s exploitation of the poor workers in England. During this time, author Charles Dickens, as a boy, had to work ten-hour shifts pasting labels on bottles to support this family, because his father was confined in Debtor’s Prison.
In 1917,Trotsky led the Communist Revolution in Russia that ousted the Tsars’ monarchy. In 1924 Stalin emerged as the leader of the USSR. After WWII, the US fought the Korean and Vietnam Wars to stop the Communists from overrunning the world.
The rich, miserly Scrooge in Charles Dickens’ “Christmas Carol” underwent a conversion to a generous person who celebrated Christmas. In contrast to the Communist revolution, this can be a metaphor for the rule of law that enabled the US to overcome worker exploitation. The US passed child, labor, and anti-trust laws that constrained the power of the rich industrialists.
Since the 1980s, hourly worker pay has not increased in proportion to inflation and increased productivity. This disparity is increasing economic inequality. Most of the increased productivity pay has gone to those with education beyond a bachelor’s degree.
The minimum federal pay of $7.25 per hour has not been increased for over a decade. To keep up with inflation and productivity increases, the minimum wage should be gradually advanced to $ 20 per hour. Recently the minimum wage in Washington, DC increased to $14 per hour.
The property tax that funds public schools results in poor neighborhoods having poor schools and rich neighborhoods having good schools. State, federal, and corporate funds are needed to keep poor kids from being locked into poverty. Our high tech civilization needs an educated workforce. Let’s educate our poor rather than import educated immigrants. We must also reform our tax structure and corporate policies.
This pdf is about the Schizophrenia.
For more details visit on YouTube; @SELF-EXPLANATORY;
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAiarMZDNhe1A3Rnpr_WkzA/videos
Thanks...!
Observation of Io’s Resurfacing via Plume Deposition Using Ground-based Adapt...Sérgio Sacani
Since volcanic activity was first discovered on Io from Voyager images in 1979, changes
on Io’s surface have been monitored from both spacecraft and ground-based telescopes.
Here, we present the highest spatial resolution images of Io ever obtained from a groundbased telescope. These images, acquired by the SHARK-VIS instrument on the Large
Binocular Telescope, show evidence of a major resurfacing event on Io’s trailing hemisphere. When compared to the most recent spacecraft images, the SHARK-VIS images
show that a plume deposit from a powerful eruption at Pillan Patera has covered part
of the long-lived Pele plume deposit. Although this type of resurfacing event may be common on Io, few have been detected due to the rarity of spacecraft visits and the previously low spatial resolution available from Earth-based telescopes. The SHARK-VIS instrument ushers in a new era of high resolution imaging of Io’s surface using adaptive
optics at visible wavelengths.
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
Slide 1: Title Slide
Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Slide 2: Introduction to Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Definition: Extrachromosomal inheritance refers to the transmission of genetic material that is not found within the nucleus.
Key Components: Involves genes located in mitochondria, chloroplasts, and plasmids.
Slide 3: Mitochondrial Inheritance
Mitochondria: Organelles responsible for energy production.
Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA): Circular DNA molecule found in mitochondria.
Inheritance Pattern: Maternally inherited, meaning it is passed from mothers to all their offspring.
Diseases: Examples include Leber’s hereditary optic neuropathy (LHON) and mitochondrial myopathy.
Slide 4: Chloroplast Inheritance
Chloroplasts: Organelles responsible for photosynthesis in plants.
Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA): Circular DNA molecule found in chloroplasts.
Inheritance Pattern: Often maternally inherited in most plants, but can vary in some species.
Examples: Variegation in plants, where leaf color patterns are determined by chloroplast DNA.
Slide 5: Plasmid Inheritance
Plasmids: Small, circular DNA molecules found in bacteria and some eukaryotes.
Features: Can carry antibiotic resistance genes and can be transferred between cells through processes like conjugation.
Significance: Important in biotechnology for gene cloning and genetic engineering.
Slide 6: Mechanisms of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Non-Mendelian Patterns: Do not follow Mendel’s laws of inheritance.
Cytoplasmic Segregation: During cell division, organelles like mitochondria and chloroplasts are randomly distributed to daughter cells.
Heteroplasmy: Presence of more than one type of organellar genome within a cell, leading to variation in expression.
Slide 7: Examples of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Four O’clock Plant (Mirabilis jalapa): Shows variegated leaves due to different cpDNA in leaf cells.
Petite Mutants in Yeast: Result from mutations in mitochondrial DNA affecting respiration.
Slide 8: Importance of Extrachromosomal Inheritance
Evolution: Provides insight into the evolution of eukaryotic cells.
Medicine: Understanding mitochondrial inheritance helps in diagnosing and treating mitochondrial diseases.
Agriculture: Chloroplast inheritance can be used in plant breeding and genetic modification.
Slide 9: Recent Research and Advances
Gene Editing: Techniques like CRISPR-Cas9 are being used to edit mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA.
Therapies: Development of mitochondrial replacement therapy (MRT) for preventing mitochondrial diseases.
Slide 10: Conclusion
Summary: Extrachromosomal inheritance involves the transmission of genetic material outside the nucleus and plays a crucial role in genetics, medicine, and biotechnology.
Future Directions: Continued research and technological advancements hold promise for new treatments and applications.
Slide 11: Questions and Discussion
Invite Audience: Open the floor for any questions or further discussion on the topic.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderlandRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...Sérgio Sacani
The ambient solar wind that flls the heliosphere originates from multiple
sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described
as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal
holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are
under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify
solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the
heliosphere. By combining magnetic feld modelling and spectroscopic
techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show
that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March
2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to
multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic feld footpoints
connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole
to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This
is refected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast
to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of
a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au
but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.
Professional air quality monitoring systems provide immediate, on-site data for analysis, compliance, and decision-making.
Monitor common gases, weather parameters, particulates.
What is greenhouse gasses and how many gasses are there to affect the Earth.moosaasad1975
What are greenhouse gasses how they affect the earth and its environment what is the future of the environment and earth how the weather and the climate effects.
PRESENTATION ABOUT PRINCIPLE OF COSMATIC EVALUATION
COUNTER-INTUITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: WEATHER VS. CLIMATE
1. COUNTER-INTUITY of
COMPLEX SYSTEMS:
WEATHER VS CLIMATE
SHORT TERM versus LONG
The Butterfly Effect
Short Term Drop in Oil Prices
Epidemic's Descendant Benefits
By Paul H. Carr, Ph.D.
www.MirrorOfNature.org
2. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
System Dynamics Pioneer, author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
6. The Lorenz Attractor: wibbly-wobbly mess of the millenium. Three
simulation runs (red, green, blue) are shown; they start close together
but quickly spin off on different trajectories, demonstrating sensitivity
to initial conditions (weather).
Nonetheless, the trajectories quickly converge on an intricate
structure in the phase space, called an 'attractor'. The attractor
doesn't vary with initial conditions, but is instead a feature of the
Lorenz equations themselves (climate).
8. Did chaos theory kill climatology ?
“Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined
as the average weather, or more rigorously,
as the statistical description in terms of the
mean and variability of relevant quantities
over a period of time ranging from months to
thousands or millions of years.” IPCC
NO! LONG TERM AVERAGES ARE PREDICTABLE
9. 1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE
1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE
(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)
LONG TERM AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS
10. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE. IS THERE A PHYSICAL
PROCESS LINKING TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO THAT OF GREENHOUSE GAS CO2?
11. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
12. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE
•Initial condition accuracy limits weather
predictions to days. After this predictions
become chaotic.
•Long term averages smooth out chaotic
fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is
independent of initial conditions.
•Long term climactic averages aided by
physical understanding can be predictable.
•Similar to quantum theory of particles.
13. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The
Weather Channel, said
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean
is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not
melting away.
Is this statement published in the
non-peer reviewed Daily Mail
correct from a climatology
perspective?
14. • The Sept 2012 minimum area set a record low.
• Sept 2013, 2014 is larger but not climate trend changing.
• http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Nat. Snow & Ice Data Ctr.
15. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
13
16. Meteorologist John Coleman, who co-founded The
Weather Channel, said
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../article.../Oct 23, 2014 - 'The ocean
is not rising significantly. The polar ice is increasing, not
melting away.
Is this statement published in the
non-peer reviewed Daily Mail
correct from a climatology
perspective?
17. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
Sea level rise has increased to 3.1 mm/year at
present from 0.8 mm/year 1870– 1924.
12 in./100
years.
7.5 in./100 years
3 in. /100 years
19. • Melting Greenland
• Melting Antarctica
• Mountain Glaciers
Global temperatures have risen since 1960, but rate of sea level rise has been greater.
EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036
M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014
Faux Pause
18
20. 19
The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
the CO2
increase.
Sea level rise is a proxy for
global temperature, since
it is due to thermal
expansion (50%) and the
melting of ice (50%)
SEA LEVEL RISE
IS A BETTER MEASURE OF
GLOBAL WARMING
THAN TEMPERATURE
21. Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global
ocean between 1980 and 2011.
A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full
Published by AAAS
20
22. Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different
indicated depths in the global ocean, A.
X Chen, and K Tung Science
2014;345:897-903
Published by AAAS
23. ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS
PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS
UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS.
From World Without Ice H. Pollack.
22
24. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
23
25. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
26. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the
low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure difference allows
waves of arctic air to invade the
South: Warmer & Colder Winters.
Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.
Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep
arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.
The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012
A Wacky Jet Steam Is Making Our Weather Severe , Scientific American, Nov 18, 2014
24
27. The jet stream that circles Earth's north pole travels west to east. But when the jet stream
interacts with a Rossby wave, as shown here, the winds can wander far north and south,
bringing frigid air to normally mild southern states. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-
way/2014/02/16/277911739/warming-arctic-may-be-causing-jet-stream-to-lose-its-way
32. In the long term, the Mid East will be the major oil producer.
33. THE LONG TERM BENEFICIARIES OF SHORT TERM DISASTERS
THE BRIGHT SIDE OF THE BACK DEATH
The Bubonic Plague left its mark on the human population of Europe,
showing that what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
American Scientist vol. 102, pg 410-413, Nov-Dec 2014
35. DESCENDENT BENEFITS
•Sharon DeWitte by examining cemeteries:
-A higher proportion of the population reached older ages
after the Black Death than before.
•Wages of labor rose due to higher demand.
•More land, food, and money for ordinary people.
• After 1492, Native American population plummeted
because they were not immune to European diseases.
-Advantage to European settlers in armed conflicts.
36. LONG TERM DESCENDENT BENEFITS
“God judged it better to bring
good out of evil, than to suffer no
evil to exist.”
Thomas Aquinas (1225–1274)
AMBIGUITY OF GOOD & EVIL
37. WEATHER VS. CLIMATE
•Initial condition accuracy limits weather
predictions to days. After this predictions
become chaotic.
•Long term averages smooth out chaotic
fluctuations. Equivalently the “attractor” is
independent of initial conditions.
•Long term climactic averages aided by
physical understanding can be predictable.
•Similar to quantum theory of particles.
38. Counterintuitiveness of Complex Systems
http://www.clexchange.org/curriculum/complexsystems/default.asp
By MIT Prof. JAY W. FORRESTER (1971)
Author of World Dynamics
•The intuitively obvious "solutions" to problems are wrong
(apt to fall into one of several traps set by the character of
complex systems.)
•Cause and effect are not closely related in time or space.
•Action is often ineffective because symptoms are treated,
not the problem.
-The cause of the problem is within the system.
•Conflicts arise between short-term and long-term goals.
39. “Where there is no vision,
the people perish.”
Proverbs 29: 18.
Editor's Notes
The temperature increase curve coincides with the temperature increase.
Oceanic heat sink. Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011. Since 2000, the subsurface ocean has warmed much faster than in the preceding two decades; this ocean warming may explain why average atmospheric temperatures have not risen during the past decade. The gray bars show the timing of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions. The yellow and blue bars show the timing of several key El Niño and La Niña events. Data from the ORAS-4 ocean reanalysis (10).
Integrated OHC.Integrated from the surface to different indicated depths in the global ocean (A), the Atlantic (B), the Pacific (C), the Southern Ocean (D), and the Indian Ocean (E). Shown is the 12-month running mean deviation from the climatological mean (1970 to 2012) for each layer, so attention should not be focused on the absolute distance between the curves but should be on their relative changes in time. Color lines show the OHC in the left scale, in units of 1023 J. The black line shows the mean SST up to 2013. (Insets) The division of the globe into the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean, and the Southern Ocean. Although shown in the figure, data in the earlier decades were not as reliable (see Data and Materials and Methods); the discussion in the text is focused on the better-observed regions and periods.