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August 2014IBM Security Systems
IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly,
3Q 2014
Get a closer look at Heartbleed—from the latest attack activity to mitigation strategies—
using 2014 mid-year data and ongoing research
2 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
	 2	 Executive overview
	 4	 Heartbleed attack activity: Then and now
	 9	 The race to prevent one-day attacks
	13	Vulnerability disclosures in the first half of 2014
	18	 About X-Force
	19	 Contributors
	19	 For more information
Welcome to the latest quarterly report from the IBM®
X-Force® research and development team. In this report, we’ll
look at how the Heartbleed vulnerability—CVE-2014-0160,
disclosed in April 2014—impacted organizations around the
world. We’ll focus on how attackers continue to take advantage
of this pervasive vulnerability, review potential mitigation
strategies and assess how the disclosure compares to the rest of
our data from the first half of 2014.
So far, the disclosure of the Heartbleed vulnerability in the
OpenSSL library has been the biggest event to hit the security
industry in 2014. The bug permitted unauthenticated acccess
from servers and clients alike. While the initial impact of
Heartbleed is waning, a second wave of new vulnerabilities
found within open-source and reusable software merits further
discussion.
Servers worldwide continue to be affected by this serious
vulnerability, so we wanted to investigate what has happened
since the Heartbleed disclosure took so many organizations by
surprise. Not only did the flaw focus the attention of
researchers looking for new areas of vulnerabilities within
open-source and reusable code, it also gave attackers another
great opportunity to use one-day attack methods.
With the help of IBM Managed Security Services (MSS), we’ll
first look at how organizations dealt with the immediate
aftermath of the Heartbleed announcement, while also
adopting practical, large-scale mitigation strategies for ongoing
protection. Then, from an attack perspective, our X-Force
researchers will explain what the attackers might have been
looking for and attempting to achieve with this type of
vulnerability.
Executive overviewContents
IBM Security Systems 3
Throughout this report, you’ll learn how an unexpected,
widespread and difficult-to-patch vulnerability such as
Heartbleed forces organizations to look deeper into their risk
management and critical communication processes. This was
especially true for major software vendors who had integrated
OpenSSL into their commercial products and offerings. In
addition to protecting against imminent attacks to their own
potentially vulnerable systems, vendors also had to perform a
thorough investigation of their own products—that is, they had
to determine if any of their products were using this open-
source library in order to provide patches.
For many of these reasons, Heartbleed had a far greater risk
impact than other types of vulnerabilities; however,
consequences were not as disastrous as they could have been.
There were only a handful of breaches attributed to Heartbleed
even though it was a vulnerability in the core technology that
protects e-commerce and helps ensure privacy.
Finally, we’ll close the report with a look at how Heartbleed
compares to other publicly disclosed vulnerabilities, and how
this midway point of 2014 compares to previous years. The
good news is that the overall disclosure trend is decreasing. But
when comparing the real-world impact of Heartbleed to its
Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) ranking—
which is only a 5.0, or “medium” risk—our researchers noted a
significant disparity. We’ll discuss some of the shortcomings in
the current CVSS standard, the inconsistencies in scoring
across different organizations, and the loss of confidence in the
CVSS score as an accurate and reliable measure of risk. Then,
we’ll explain how the upcoming release of CVSS version 3 is
expected to address many concerns of the security industry.
What is Heartbleed?
The Heartbleed vulnerability is a bug in OpenSSL, a popular
open-source protocol used extensively on the Internet,
which allows anyone who knows how to exploit the
vulnerability to access and read the memory of systems
thought to be protected.
Vulnerable versions of OpenSSL allow compromise of secret
keys, user names, passwords and even actual content. Many
security experts believe that this vulnerability has actually
existed for at least two years and might have been exploited
for just as long. Although many companies have issued
statements claiming that they have now remedied the
vulnerability in their environment, there is truly no way of
knowing how much data has fallen into the wrong hands
through the exploitation of this vulnerability.
For more information about Heartbleed, refer to the IBM
Security Intelligence blog post from April 20141
or the
Heartbleed website.2
4 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
What was the real-world impact of Heartbleed? Learn how the waves of attacks have
affected IBM Managed Security Services customers.
Heartbleed attack activity: Then and now
O
n 7 April 2014, one of the most significant security
events of the past few years occurred—that’s when
the Heartbleed vulnerability in OpenSSL (CVE-
2014-0160) was publicly disclosed. The bug was introduced
approximately two years ago and left more than half a million
servers vulnerable to unencrypted data leaks of system memory
with minimal trace of exploitation. The disclosure caused panic
across a wide range of industries, government agencies and
consumer groups that had used OpenSSL to keep their
transactions private—and had instead found themselves
vulnerable to an attack and without any proof of when leaks
occurred (that is, no log-file evidence).
Almost as soon as the vulnerability was released as an
OpenSSL advisory, IBM Managed Security Services (MSS)
witnessed attackers immediately re-tooling and exploiting the
bug on a global scale. Once the major vendors of intrusion
detection and prevention systems created protection
signatures, MSS was able to see just how bad the situation had
become. On 15 April 2014, MSS witnessed the largest spike in
activity across the customer base with more than 300,000
attacks in a single 24-hour period. That’s an average of 3.47
attacks per second for more than hundreds of customers.
Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers
April 2014
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Event count
Figure 1. Attack activity related to the Heartbleed vulnerability, as noted for IBM Managed Security Services customers, in April 2014
Attacks peaked with
more than 300,000
attacks in one day
Execution of the attack activity
Let’s take a closer look at the attack activity after the
Heartbleed disclosure. Rather than a single IP address
executing the attack repeatedly, many of the attacks used a
distributed method. A wide range of IP addresses across
multiple autonomous system numbers (ASNs) attacked the
networks monitored by MSS. In fact, entire ranges of IP
addresses attacked several servers at once. This enabled
attackers to have a large, diversified attack surface and the
flexibility to overcome rudimentary blocking strategies.
What are autonomous system numbers?
On the Internet, an autonomous system refers to a
connected group of one or more Internet Protocol routing
prefixes run by one or more network operators to support a
single, clearly defined routing policy. Each autonomous
system is assigned a globally unique routing number, known
as an autonomous system number (ASN).
Originally, autonomous systems were controlled on behalf of
a single entity, such as an Internet service provider (ISP) or a
very large organization with independent connections to
multiple networks. Now, multiple organizations can run the
Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) using private ASNs that sit
behind an ISP. Although multiple autonomous systems may
be supported by the ISP, the Internet only sees the routing
policy of the ISP. Therefore, only the ISP must have an
officially registered ASN.
IBM Security Systems 5
Distributed Heartbleed attack
Attacker
1.1.1.1 1.1.1.2 1.1.1.3 1.1.1.4
Requests
Leaked data
Vulnerable server
Graphic 1. Distributed Heartbleed attack
The attacks slowed down after 22 April 2014. However, Figure
2 shows that despite the leveling off of attack activity, the
number of attacked customers has remained relatively
consistent over time. Why? As large organizations vulnerable
to Heartbleed were able to apply the issued patch to their
infrastructure, they rendered the attacks less fruitful. As a
result, attackers focused on other exploits. MSS witnessed a
significant drop in both the number of source IPs generating
attacks and the total number of attacks globally against the
MSS customer base.
6 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
A historical look at Heartbleed attack activity
April 2014 through June 2014
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Event count Customer count Source IP count
Figure 2. A historical look at Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers, April 2014 through June 2014
A significant
decline
Continued
activity
Consistent
impact on
customers
IBM Security Systems 7
But the current status of attacks is still significant. MSS sees an
average of 7,000 attacks per day across a large attack surface.
Organizations that have applied the OpenSSL patch to their
infrastructure and deployed blocking mechanisms, such as
intrusion detection or intrusion prevention systems, can
breathe a little easier.
Sampling of Heartbleed attack activity
24 April 2014 through 1 July 2014
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
800
600
400
200
0
Final peak in
distributed
attacks
Attack activity
still averages
7,000 per day
Event count Customer count Source IP count
Figure 3. Sampling of Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers, 24 April 2014 through 1 July 2014
8 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
Lessons learned and recommendations
There were many lessons learned from the Heartbleed attacks.
For example, MSS found that having an incident response
plan—and maintaining an asset database—were both absolutely
critical to reducing exposure to the attacks. Organizations that
had struggled to maintain a current asset database were left
blind to which systems were vulnerable and which systems were
critical. Even if they had an incident response plan, they needed
an up-to-date asset database in order to deploy it.
On the other hand, companies that had maintained their asset
database and incident response plan were able to rapidly deploy
patches on critical systems vulnerable to attack, thereby
reducing their exposure to Heartbleed. They also face
significantly less risk for threats in the future.
It’s also important to understand the detection and defense
strategies for attacks such as Heartbleed. In certain scenarios,
organizations can utilize firewalls to block out the bulk of the
attacks toward their networks. The MSS security operations
center (SOC) applies this methodology when large global
attacks happen and the majority of the attacks stem from a small
subset of hosts. This blocking technique can provide short,
temporary reprieve from attack activity, providing valuable time
for critical systems to be patched.
Firewalls are an excellent defense when a small subset of hosts
are generating the attacks. In addition, intrusion detection and
prevention devices can provide an even greater protection by
blocking attacks at the offending packet level. This alleviates the
need for maintaining an active list of attackers and reduces the
risk involved while systems are patched.
IBM Security Systems 9
The race to prevent one-day attacks
Discover how quickly attackers rush to exploit a vulnerability such as Heartbleed—and how
you can mitigate the threat.
“H
ow fast can we get a patch deployed?” That is the
question most organizations asked themselves
when the Heartbleed security advisory
(CVE-2014-0160) was published on 7 April 2014. Immediately
after the announcement, organizations rushed to patch their
systems. Meanwhile, just one day after the disclosure, a
proof-of-concept tool3
capable of exploiting the Heartbleed
bug began circulating, exposing unpatched systems to skilled
and unskilled attackers alike. But more troubling is the fact that
also a day after the disclosure, attacks leveraging the
vulnerability began to occur,4
and the actions of some of the
affected organizations in mitigating attacks or patching the
vulnerability were already too late.5, 6
Timeline of one-day attacks for Heartbleed vulnerability
7 April 2014 through 9 April 2014
Figure 4. Timeline of one-day attacks for Heartbleed vulnerability (CVE-2014-0160), 7 April 2014 through 9 April 2014
7 April 2014
2014
Heartbleed security
advisory issued
(CVE-2014-0160)
9 April 2014
Mumsnet patched
its systems, but a
breach had
already occurred
8 April 2014
First proof-of-
concept began
circulating
Attack against a
Mandiant client
occurred
Canadian Revenue
Agency removed
public access to its
online services, but
a breach had
already occurred
10 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
Reflections of Java attacks in 2012
Heartbleed isn’t the first time one-day attacks have occurred—
that is, attacks leveraging an already-patched vulnerability. In
fact, X-Force analysts noted this trend after the disclosure of
the 2012 Java vulnerability (CVE-2012-1723), as discussed in
our IBM X-Force 2012 Trend and Risk Report.
In the case of this Java vulnerability, a security researcher
claimed that he was able to create a proof-of-concept exploit
just a day after a fix was issued for the vulnerability, and a week
later, published the details of the vulnerability.7
Fortunately, in
this particular case, the proof-of-concept code was not
released. However, the integration of working exploit code in a
popular mass exploit kit8
—posted just a month after the patch
was made available for the vulnerability—meant that many
still-unpatched systems became potential targets via drive-by
attacks. Later, the exploit for the vulnerability was integrated
into other exploit kits, further increasing the risk of unpatched
systems becoming compromised.
Timeline of one-day attacks for 2012 Java vulnerability
12 June 2012 through 11 July 2012
Figure 5. Timeline of one-day attacks for 2012 Java vulnerability (CVE-2012-1723), 12 June 2012 through 11 July 2012
2012
12 June 2012
Java security
advisory issued
(CVE-2012-1723)
11 July 2012
Exploit code
was integrated
into the
Blackhole
exploit kit
19 June 2012
Security
researcher
published the
vulnerability
details
13 June 2012
Security researcher
claimed that a
proof-of-concept
(private/unreleased)
was successfully
created
IBM Security Systems 11
A race to patch
Both the Heartbleed and Java vulnerability examples
demonstrate that one-day attacks can be just as dangerous as
zero-day attacks. Unlike zero-day attacks—where the
vulnerability is unknown and a patch is not available—the issue
with one-day attacks is in how long it takes a patch to be
deployed. Patch management is a complex challenge, especially
for large deployments and for mission-critical systems that
require extensive pre-deployment testing.
Additionally, if the vulnerability is in a widely-used library, such
as the OpenSSL library as in the case of Heartbleed, the issue is
further complicated because organizations are dependent on
the additional time it takes for software vendors to integrate
and test the patches in their own products before the patched
product is handed off to them. This additional waiting time
means an increased exposure window that attackers can turn to
their own advantage.
A race to exploit
From an attacker’s standpoint, recently-patched vulnerabilities
represent an opportunity, as they are potential (albeit
temporary) weak points in their targets’ infrastructure. For
one-day attacks, the goal of the attacker is to take advantage of
the exposure window of organizations between when the
patches are announced and when the patches are actually
deployed.
The following sections explain how attackers create one-day
exploits, so you can understand how quickly a weaponized
attack can take advantage of a patched vulnerability.
Locating the patched bug
Typically, attackers first need to identify the code that has been
patched in response to a vulnerability. For open-source projects,
this is a straightforward task because they can simply review
publicly accessible source-code repositories and source-code
check-ins relating to the vulnerability. For closed-source
applications, they can use a process called “binary diffing” to
find which parts of the binary code have changed, narrowing it
down to changed functions and, eventually, the vulnerable code.
For experienced attackers, binary diffing can be as
straightforward as finding differences in source code.
Our research has shown that an experienced attacker can find
vulnerable code in just a few minutes (in the case of open-
source applications with commented check-ins) to a maximum
of a few hours (in the case of binary applications with multiple
unrelated changes).
Exploiting the bug
The major factor that affects when an attacker might leverage a
vulnerability is the difficulty involved with developing an
exploit, or weaponizing it. On the one hand, there are
vulnerabilities that can only be exploited if the application is in
a particular state and/or exploit mitigations are bypassed. For
these cases, more research time is required in order to develop a
working exploit. But on the other hand, there are vulnerabilities
that can easily be exploited and the associated exploit
mitigations can be bypassed using previously-used or published
techniques.
For an experienced attacker, an exploit code for easy-to-exploit
vulnerabilities can usually be developed within a few hours. In
contrast, an exploit code for difficult-to-exploit vulnerabilities
can take up to a few days, weeks or even months to develop,
depending on the level of difficulty.
Unfortunately, in the case of Heartbleed, development of
exploit code was straightforward, as evidenced by the release of
the exploit code just a day after the disclosure.
12 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
Mitigations
The race to deploy patches and develop exploits will not always
be won by organizations, and it is prudent to assume that most
of the time, attackers may win. However, there are ways for
organizations to improve their posture against one-day attacks
while patches are being tested and deployed:
•	Apply workarounds. Check if the vendor provides guidance
for a temporary workaround that can help prevent
exploitation of the vulnerability. This may involve changing a
particular configuration or temporarily disabling a module or
a feature where the vulnerability exists or is being used as a
vector for exploiting the vulnerability.
•	Block attacks. Security products—such as intrusion
detection or intrusion prevention systems and anti-virus
software—can serve as a first line of defense against
exploitation of vulnerabilities while patches are being tested
and deployed. Vendor programs such as the Microsoft Active
Protections Program (MAPP)9
provide security software
providers with early access to vulnerability information so
that when Microsoft patches are released, security vendors
can immediately release security content that can help detect
and block exploits against the recently patched vulnerabilities.
•	Shut down systems temporarily. Although business leaders
may object, another solution is to temporarily shut down or
disconnect the affected system while a patch is being tested.
This option may be the best way to help prevent the loss of
customers’ personal or financial information. If a temporary
shutdown of a vulnerable system will help stop their
information from being stolen, customers will likely
understand why a service is temporarily unavailable.
Attackers are opportunistic; they will grab every opportunity to
attack when a target is in a weak state. An organization’s best
defense against one-day attacks is to be ready—to have action
plans prepared and mitigations in place when a critical
vulnerability is reported.
IBM Security Systems 13
S
ince 1997, X-Force has been tracking public disclosures
of vulnerabilities in software products, such as the
Heartbleed disclosure (CVE-2014-0160) from earlier this
year. Our X-Force researchers collect software advisories from
vendors, read security-related mailing lists, and analyze
hundreds of vulnerability web pages where remedy data,
exploits and vulnerabilities are disclosed.
In the first half of 2014, we reported just over 3,900 new
security vulnerabilities affecting 926 unique vendors. If this
trend continues through the end of the year, the total projected
vulnerabilities would fall below 8,000 total vulnerabilities for
the first time since 2011.
Vulnerability disclosures in the first half of 2014
What’s the state of security beyond Heartbleed? Find out about this year’s disclosure trends
and proposed changes for vulnerability scoring.
Vulnerability disclosures growth by year
1996 through 2014 (projected)
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Figure 6. Vulnerability disclosures growth by year, 1996 through 2014 (projected)
ProjectedEvent count
14 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
It is difficult to point to any one factor that has contributed to
the decline in the number of vulnerability disclosures in 2014.
However, it is interesting to note that the total number of
vendors disclosing vulnerabilities has decreased year over year
(1,602 vendors in 2013, compared to 926 vendors in 2014).
Even with the projected decline in the overall number of
vulnerability disclosures in 2014, the number of vulnerabilities
disclosed by the largest enterprise software vendors remains
relatively unchanged year over year (34 percent in 2013,
compared to 32 percent in 2014), as shown in Figure 7.
When looking at trends in enterprise software, the X-Force
team looks at major software vendors who create the widest
variety of enterprise software. We observed that out of
thousands of vendors, these companies consistently disclose a
significant number of security vulnerabilities. We categorize
these vendors in a top 10 group, leaving out the content
management system (CMS) vulnerabilities since the majority of
those are in third-party plug-ins and add-ons and not widely
used as enterprise-level software. These vendors typically have a
more comprehensive approach to security that includes policies
and practices for properly addressing and responding to
security vulnerabilities, which likely leads to a larger number of
public vulnerability disclosures.10
Vulnerability disclosures by large enterprise software vendors
2013 and 1H 2014
Figure 7. Vulnerability disclosures by large enterprise software vendors, 2013 and 1H 2014
Top 10 vendors
Other vendors
32%34%
66% 68%
2013 1H 2014
IBM Security Systems 15
Vulnerabilities in content management systems
Vulnerabilities in CMS continue to be some of the most
reported in 2014, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the total
vulnerabilities researched. What’s more, the largest percentage
of CMS vulnerabilities occur in plug-ins or modules written by
third-party sources—not by the core CMS vendor.
Many CMS plug-ins are maintained by one person or a small
group of people, and they may have infrequent updates (or
none at all). Therefore, many plug-ins contain tempting,
unpatched security vulnerabilities. Figure 8 shows the lag in
patch rates for plug-ins, as compared to core CMS platforms,
and the data is unchanged since our 2013 reporting.
While X-Force has previously cautioned against using CMS
plug-ins, a new wave of attacks against these platforms was
launched in recent months, showing the continued risk.
Russian site Yandex reported on a malware dubbed the
Mayhem Virus11
that seeks to compromise web servers through
CMS vulnerabilities and brute-force attacks of weak or default
credentials.
After these web servers are compromised, they can be used to
serve malware or carry out large-scale, high-bandwidth
distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against other sites
and targets. For example, WordPress was used in an
amplification DDoS attack in March 2014 that affected more
than 162,000 sites.12
In this case, attackers used the legitimate
functionality of the XML-RPC pingback feature to link blog
content from different authors to a third-party website.
Figure 8. Web application vulnerabilities for core CMS platforms and CMS plug-ins,
as a percentage of all disclosures and corresponding patch rates, 1H 2014
Web application vulnerabilities for core CMS platforms and CMS plug-ins, 1H 2014
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Core CMS platforms
CMS plug-ins
0.9%
8.4%
Unpatched Patched
46%
22%
78% 54%
Core CMS vulnerabilities, 1H 2014 CMS plug-in vulnerabilities, 1H 2014
Patch rates for CMS vulnerabilities
16 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
CVSS scoring
X-Force uses version 2 of the Common Vulnerability Scoring
System (CVSS) to communicate the severity of vulnerabilities.
We score vulnerabilities from three different perspectives: as a
vulnerability database that tracks third-party vulnerability
disclosures, as a security research organization that discovers
new vulnerabilities, and as a large software vendor that needs to
help customers accurately assess the severity of vulnerabilities
within its products. X-Force is currently working alongside
other organizations on developing the new CVSS, version 3.13
In the scoring of vulnerabilities for the first half of 2014, we
found that the majority of issues fall into the CVSS medium-
severity range (67 percent), with 24 percent of all
vulnerabilities rated critical or high. As shown in Figure 9,
these results are unchanged from 2013, and this is the third
consecutive year where the majority of vulnerabilities have
been rated as medium-level risks.
CVSS base scores, 2012 through 1H 2014
Figure 9. CVSS base scores, 2012 through 1H 2014
CVSS base score 2012 CVSS base score 2013 CVSS base score 1H 2014
10
7.0 – 9.9
4.0 – 6.9
0.0 – 3.9
Critical A successful exploit is likely to have catastrophic adverse effects
High A successful exploit is likely to have significant adverse effects
Medium A successful exploit is likely to have moderate adverse effects
Low A successful exploit is likely to have limited adverse effects
66%
Medium
1%
Critical
5%
Low
28%
High
67%
Medium
2%
Critical
8%
Low
23%
High
67%
Medium
1%
Critical
9%
Low
23%
High
CVSS score Severity level
IBM Security Systems 17
Many in the industry, including security analysts, corporate
incident response teams and enterprise software consumers,
have become dissatisfied with scoring inconsistencies that often
occur across different organizations. Sometimes the
inconsistencies are the result of the subjectivity that can go into
how an individual or organization scores vulnerabilities, but
they can also result from some of the inherent flaws in the
current CVSS standard and a lack of clear guidelines on how to
objectively assess certain types of vulnerabilities. As a result, the
CVSS score often fails to reflect the true risk a vulnerability
may pose to an organization, causing an overall loss of
confidence in the CVSS score as an accurate and reliable
measure of risk.
To learn more about the concerns surrounding CVSS and the
development of the new CVSS, version 3, refer to the CVSS v3
Development website, hosted by the Forum of Incident
Response and Security Teams (FIRST).13
The most obvious example of how some CVSS scores do not
always represent true risk and impact to an organization is the
Heartbleed vulnerability. As mentioned earlier in this report,
Heartbleed was disclosed in April 2014, but it had actually
existed for two years. This vulnerability received a CVSS base
score of 5.0, which falls into the medium-risk level—along with
67 percent of all other vulnerabilities reported during the first
half of 2014.
However, with the number of products impacted, the time and
attention IT teams spent patching systems and responding to
customer inquiries, as well as the potential sensitivity of data
exposed, the true impact of the Heartbleed vulnerability was
greater than the CVSS base score would indicate. This also
brings to question what other vulnerabilities fell into the
medium-risk category (CVSS base score 4.0 to 6.9) that may
have been disregarded by organizations, but that also had
potential large-scale impacts similar to Heartbleed.
Final thoughts on the first half of 2014
Although overall vulnerability numbers are down for the first
half of 2014, the impact to the top 10 enterprise software
vendors remains consistent. It is uncertain at this point whether
this trend will continue through the end of the year as attackers
continue to seek higher impact/higher potential reward targets
or whether we will see an increase in the second half of the year
in the number of disclosed vulnerabilities against smaller
vendors and components, such as CMS plug-ins.
X-Force also anticipates the release and adoption of CVSS
version 3 to help foster more consistency in risk assessment
across organizations and more confidence in the use of CVSS as
one of the primary components within an organization’s overall
incident response plan. This way, when disclosures such as
Heartbleed occur in the future, the industry as a whole will be
better prepared for potential threats.
18 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014
The IBM X-Force research and development team studies and
monitors the latest threat trends including vulnerabilities,
exploits, malware, spam, phishing and malicious web content.
The research team includes a variety of skill sets and
backgrounds, leveraging IBM acquisitions in the Internet
security market—including Internet Security Systems, IBM
Trusteer™14
and IBM Security AppScan®—and combining
them with intelligence from active network monitoring from
the IBM Managed Security Services group. In addition to
advising customers and the general public about emerging and
critical threats, X-Force also develops security content and
protection techniques to help protect IBM customers from
these threats.
IBM Security collaboration
IBM Security represents several brands that provide a broad
spectrum of security competency:
•	The IBM X-Force vulnerability research and development
team discovers, analyzes, monitors and records a broad range
of computer security threats, vulnerabilities, and the latest
trends and methods used by attackers. Other groups within
IBM use this rich data to develop protection techniques for
our customers.
•	The IBM Trusteer product family delivers a holistic endpoint
cybercrime prevention platform that helps protect
organizations against financial fraud and data breaches.
Hundreds of organizations and tens of millions of end users
rely on these products from IBM Security to protect their
web applications, computers and mobile devices from online
threats (such as advanced malware and phishing attacks).
•	The IBM X-Force content security team independently
scours and categorizes the web by crawling, independent
discoveries, and through the feeds provided by IBM Managed
Security Services.
•	IBM Managed Security Services is responsible for
monitoring exploits related to endpoints, servers (including
web servers) and general network infrastructure. This team
tracks exploits delivered over the web as well as via other
vectors such as email and instant messaging.
•	IBM Professional Security Services delivers enterprise-wide
security assessment, design and deployment services to help
build effective information security solutions.
•	IBM QRadar® Security Intelligence Platform offers an
integrated solution for security intelligence and event
management (SIEM), log management, configuration
management, vulnerability assessment and anomaly
detection. It provides a unified dashboard and real-time
insight into security and compliance risks across people, data,
applications and infrastructure.
•	IBM Security AppScan enables organizations to assess the
security of web and mobile applications, strengthen
application security program management and achieve
regulatory compliance by identifying vulnerabilities and
generating reports with intelligent fix recommendations to
ease remediation. IBM Hosted Application Security
Management service is a cloud-based solution for dynamic
testing of web applications using AppScan in both pre-
production and production environments.
About X-Force
Advanced threats are everywhere. Help minimize your risk with insights from the experts
at IBM.
IBM Security Systems 19
Contributor Title
Brad Sherrill Manager, IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Database
John Kuhn Senior Threat Researcher, IBM Managed Security Services
Leslie Horacek Manager, IBM X-Force Threat Response
Lyndon Sutherland Threat Intelligence Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services
Mark Vincent Yason Senior Threat Researcher, IBM X-Force Advanced Research
Nick Bradley Practice Lead, Threat Research Group
Pamela Cobb Worldwide Market Segment Manager, IBM X-Force and IBM Security Threat Portfolio
Robert Freeman Manager, IBM X-Force Advanced Research
Scott Moore Software Developer, Team Lead, IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Database
Thomas Van Tongerloo Senior Cyber Threat Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services
Troy Bollinger Threat Intelligence Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services
Producing the IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly is a
dedicated collaboration across all of IBM. We would like to
thank the following individuals for their attention and
contribution to the publication of this report.
To learn more about IBM X-Force, please visit:
ibm.com/security/xforce/
Contributors For more information
© Copyright IBM Corporation 2014
IBM Corporation
Software Group
Route 100
Somers, NY 10589
Produced in the United States of America
August 2014
IBM, the IBM logo, ibm.com, AppScan, QRadar, and X-Force are
trademarks of International Business Machines Corp., registered in many
jurisdictions worldwide. Other product and service names might be
trademarks of IBM or other companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is
available on the web at “Copyright and trademark information” at
ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml
Trusteer is a trademark of Trusteer, an IBM Company.
Microsoft is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the United States,
other countries, or both.
Java and all Java-based trademarks and logos are trademarks or registered
trademarks of Oracle and/or its affiliates.
This document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be
changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every country
in which IBM operates.
THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED “AS IS”
WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED,
INCLUDING WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF
MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE
AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF NON-
INFRINGEMENT. IBM products are warranted according to the terms
and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided.
The client is responsible for ensuring compliance with laws and regulations
applicable to it. IBM does not provide legal advice or represent or warrant
that its services or products will ensure that the client is in compliance with
any law or regulation. Statements regarding IBM’s future direction and
intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice, and represent
goals and objectives only.
Statement of Good Security Practices: IT system security involves
protecting systems and information through prevention, detection and
response to improper access from within and outside your enterprise.
Improper access can result in information being altered, destroyed or
misappropriated or can result in damage to or misuse of your systems,
including to attack others. No IT system or product should be considered
completely secure and no single product or security measure can be
completely effective in preventing improper access. IBM systems and
products are designed to be part of a comprehensive security approach,
which will necessarily involve additional operational procedures, and may
require other systems, products or services to be most effective. IBM does
not warrant that systems and products are immune from the malicious or
illegal conduct of any party.
1
Chris Poulin, “What to Do to Protect against Heartbleed OpenSSL
Vulnerability,” IBM Security Intelligence Blog, 10 April 2014.
http://securityintelligence.com/heartbleed-openssl-vulnerability-what-
to-do-protect/
2
“The Heartbleed Bug,” codenomicon, 29 April 2014.
http://heartbleed.com
3
“Untitled,” pastebin, Accessed 25 July 2014.
http://pastebin.com/qyXE7myF
4
Christopher Glyer and Chris DiGiamo, “Attackers Exploit the Heartbleed
OpenSSL Vulnerability to Circumvent Multi-factor Authentication on
VPNs,” Mandiant M-unition Blog, 18 April 2014.
https://www.mandiant.com/blog/attackers-exploit-heartbleed-
openssl-vulnerability-circumvent-multifactor-authentication-vpns/
5
“Statement by the Commissioner of the Canada Revenue Agency on the
Heartbleed Bug,” Reuters, 14 April 2014.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/
idUKnMKWbNWG8a+1dc+MKW20140414
6
“The Heartbleed security breed - and what to do,” Mumsnet, 16 April
2014.
http://www.mumsnet.com/info/the-heartbleed-security-breach-to-do
7
Michael Schierl, “CVE-2012-1723 – Oracle Java Applet Field Bytecode
Verifier Cache Remote Code Execution,” Accessed 25 July 2014.
http://schierlm.users.sourceforge.net/CVE-2012-1723.html
8
Kafeine, “Inside Blackhole Exploits Kit v1.2.4 - Exploit Kit Control
Panel,” Malware don’t need Coffee, 22 July 2012.
http://malware.dontneedcoffee.com/2012/07/inside-blackhole-
exploits-kit-v124.html
9
“Microsoft Active Protections Program,” Security TechCenter, Accessed 25
July 2014.
http://technet.microsoft.com/en-US/security/dn467918
10
John Lucassen, “Are Vendors Doing What Is Needed to Mitigate Security
Vulnerabilities?” IBM Security Intelligence Blog, 30 June 2014.
http://securityintelligence.com/are-vendors-doing-what-is-needed-to-
mitigate-security-vulnerabilities/#.U9FWSrG7IUi
11
Swati Khandelwal, “Mayhem — A New Malware Targets Linux and
FreeBSD Web Servers,” The Hacker News, 24 July 2014.
http://thehackernews.com/2014/07/mayhem-new-malware-targets-
linux-and_24.html
12
Ryan Barnett, “More than 162,000 WordPress sites used in DDoS attack,”
Trustwave SpiderLabs, 12 March 2014.
http://blog.spiderlabs.com/2014/03/wordpress-xml-rpc-pingback-
vulnerability-analysis.html
13
Seth Hanford, “Common Vulnerability Scoring System, V3 Development
Update,” FIRST, June 2014.
http://www.first.org/cvss/v3/development
14
Trusteer, Ltd. was acquired by IBM in September of 2013.
WGL03057-USEN-01
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IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014

  • 1. August 2014IBM Security Systems IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly, 3Q 2014 Get a closer look at Heartbleed—from the latest attack activity to mitigation strategies— using 2014 mid-year data and ongoing research
  • 2. 2 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 2 Executive overview 4 Heartbleed attack activity: Then and now 9 The race to prevent one-day attacks 13 Vulnerability disclosures in the first half of 2014 18 About X-Force 19 Contributors 19 For more information Welcome to the latest quarterly report from the IBM® X-Force® research and development team. In this report, we’ll look at how the Heartbleed vulnerability—CVE-2014-0160, disclosed in April 2014—impacted organizations around the world. We’ll focus on how attackers continue to take advantage of this pervasive vulnerability, review potential mitigation strategies and assess how the disclosure compares to the rest of our data from the first half of 2014. So far, the disclosure of the Heartbleed vulnerability in the OpenSSL library has been the biggest event to hit the security industry in 2014. The bug permitted unauthenticated acccess from servers and clients alike. While the initial impact of Heartbleed is waning, a second wave of new vulnerabilities found within open-source and reusable software merits further discussion. Servers worldwide continue to be affected by this serious vulnerability, so we wanted to investigate what has happened since the Heartbleed disclosure took so many organizations by surprise. Not only did the flaw focus the attention of researchers looking for new areas of vulnerabilities within open-source and reusable code, it also gave attackers another great opportunity to use one-day attack methods. With the help of IBM Managed Security Services (MSS), we’ll first look at how organizations dealt with the immediate aftermath of the Heartbleed announcement, while also adopting practical, large-scale mitigation strategies for ongoing protection. Then, from an attack perspective, our X-Force researchers will explain what the attackers might have been looking for and attempting to achieve with this type of vulnerability. Executive overviewContents
  • 3. IBM Security Systems 3 Throughout this report, you’ll learn how an unexpected, widespread and difficult-to-patch vulnerability such as Heartbleed forces organizations to look deeper into their risk management and critical communication processes. This was especially true for major software vendors who had integrated OpenSSL into their commercial products and offerings. In addition to protecting against imminent attacks to their own potentially vulnerable systems, vendors also had to perform a thorough investigation of their own products—that is, they had to determine if any of their products were using this open- source library in order to provide patches. For many of these reasons, Heartbleed had a far greater risk impact than other types of vulnerabilities; however, consequences were not as disastrous as they could have been. There were only a handful of breaches attributed to Heartbleed even though it was a vulnerability in the core technology that protects e-commerce and helps ensure privacy. Finally, we’ll close the report with a look at how Heartbleed compares to other publicly disclosed vulnerabilities, and how this midway point of 2014 compares to previous years. The good news is that the overall disclosure trend is decreasing. But when comparing the real-world impact of Heartbleed to its Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) ranking— which is only a 5.0, or “medium” risk—our researchers noted a significant disparity. We’ll discuss some of the shortcomings in the current CVSS standard, the inconsistencies in scoring across different organizations, and the loss of confidence in the CVSS score as an accurate and reliable measure of risk. Then, we’ll explain how the upcoming release of CVSS version 3 is expected to address many concerns of the security industry. What is Heartbleed? The Heartbleed vulnerability is a bug in OpenSSL, a popular open-source protocol used extensively on the Internet, which allows anyone who knows how to exploit the vulnerability to access and read the memory of systems thought to be protected. Vulnerable versions of OpenSSL allow compromise of secret keys, user names, passwords and even actual content. Many security experts believe that this vulnerability has actually existed for at least two years and might have been exploited for just as long. Although many companies have issued statements claiming that they have now remedied the vulnerability in their environment, there is truly no way of knowing how much data has fallen into the wrong hands through the exploitation of this vulnerability. For more information about Heartbleed, refer to the IBM Security Intelligence blog post from April 20141 or the Heartbleed website.2
  • 4. 4 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 What was the real-world impact of Heartbleed? Learn how the waves of attacks have affected IBM Managed Security Services customers. Heartbleed attack activity: Then and now O n 7 April 2014, one of the most significant security events of the past few years occurred—that’s when the Heartbleed vulnerability in OpenSSL (CVE- 2014-0160) was publicly disclosed. The bug was introduced approximately two years ago and left more than half a million servers vulnerable to unencrypted data leaks of system memory with minimal trace of exploitation. The disclosure caused panic across a wide range of industries, government agencies and consumer groups that had used OpenSSL to keep their transactions private—and had instead found themselves vulnerable to an attack and without any proof of when leaks occurred (that is, no log-file evidence). Almost as soon as the vulnerability was released as an OpenSSL advisory, IBM Managed Security Services (MSS) witnessed attackers immediately re-tooling and exploiting the bug on a global scale. Once the major vendors of intrusion detection and prevention systems created protection signatures, MSS was able to see just how bad the situation had become. On 15 April 2014, MSS witnessed the largest spike in activity across the customer base with more than 300,000 attacks in a single 24-hour period. That’s an average of 3.47 attacks per second for more than hundreds of customers. Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers April 2014 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Event count Figure 1. Attack activity related to the Heartbleed vulnerability, as noted for IBM Managed Security Services customers, in April 2014 Attacks peaked with more than 300,000 attacks in one day
  • 5. Execution of the attack activity Let’s take a closer look at the attack activity after the Heartbleed disclosure. Rather than a single IP address executing the attack repeatedly, many of the attacks used a distributed method. A wide range of IP addresses across multiple autonomous system numbers (ASNs) attacked the networks monitored by MSS. In fact, entire ranges of IP addresses attacked several servers at once. This enabled attackers to have a large, diversified attack surface and the flexibility to overcome rudimentary blocking strategies. What are autonomous system numbers? On the Internet, an autonomous system refers to a connected group of one or more Internet Protocol routing prefixes run by one or more network operators to support a single, clearly defined routing policy. Each autonomous system is assigned a globally unique routing number, known as an autonomous system number (ASN). Originally, autonomous systems were controlled on behalf of a single entity, such as an Internet service provider (ISP) or a very large organization with independent connections to multiple networks. Now, multiple organizations can run the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) using private ASNs that sit behind an ISP. Although multiple autonomous systems may be supported by the ISP, the Internet only sees the routing policy of the ISP. Therefore, only the ISP must have an officially registered ASN. IBM Security Systems 5 Distributed Heartbleed attack Attacker 1.1.1.1 1.1.1.2 1.1.1.3 1.1.1.4 Requests Leaked data Vulnerable server Graphic 1. Distributed Heartbleed attack
  • 6. The attacks slowed down after 22 April 2014. However, Figure 2 shows that despite the leveling off of attack activity, the number of attacked customers has remained relatively consistent over time. Why? As large organizations vulnerable to Heartbleed were able to apply the issued patch to their infrastructure, they rendered the attacks less fruitful. As a result, attackers focused on other exploits. MSS witnessed a significant drop in both the number of source IPs generating attacks and the total number of attacks globally against the MSS customer base. 6 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 A historical look at Heartbleed attack activity April 2014 through June 2014 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Event count Customer count Source IP count Figure 2. A historical look at Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers, April 2014 through June 2014 A significant decline Continued activity Consistent impact on customers
  • 7. IBM Security Systems 7 But the current status of attacks is still significant. MSS sees an average of 7,000 attacks per day across a large attack surface. Organizations that have applied the OpenSSL patch to their infrastructure and deployed blocking mechanisms, such as intrusion detection or intrusion prevention systems, can breathe a little easier. Sampling of Heartbleed attack activity 24 April 2014 through 1 July 2014 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 800 600 400 200 0 Final peak in distributed attacks Attack activity still averages 7,000 per day Event count Customer count Source IP count Figure 3. Sampling of Heartbleed attack activity for IBM Managed Security Services customers, 24 April 2014 through 1 July 2014
  • 8. 8 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 Lessons learned and recommendations There were many lessons learned from the Heartbleed attacks. For example, MSS found that having an incident response plan—and maintaining an asset database—were both absolutely critical to reducing exposure to the attacks. Organizations that had struggled to maintain a current asset database were left blind to which systems were vulnerable and which systems were critical. Even if they had an incident response plan, they needed an up-to-date asset database in order to deploy it. On the other hand, companies that had maintained their asset database and incident response plan were able to rapidly deploy patches on critical systems vulnerable to attack, thereby reducing their exposure to Heartbleed. They also face significantly less risk for threats in the future. It’s also important to understand the detection and defense strategies for attacks such as Heartbleed. In certain scenarios, organizations can utilize firewalls to block out the bulk of the attacks toward their networks. The MSS security operations center (SOC) applies this methodology when large global attacks happen and the majority of the attacks stem from a small subset of hosts. This blocking technique can provide short, temporary reprieve from attack activity, providing valuable time for critical systems to be patched. Firewalls are an excellent defense when a small subset of hosts are generating the attacks. In addition, intrusion detection and prevention devices can provide an even greater protection by blocking attacks at the offending packet level. This alleviates the need for maintaining an active list of attackers and reduces the risk involved while systems are patched.
  • 9. IBM Security Systems 9 The race to prevent one-day attacks Discover how quickly attackers rush to exploit a vulnerability such as Heartbleed—and how you can mitigate the threat. “H ow fast can we get a patch deployed?” That is the question most organizations asked themselves when the Heartbleed security advisory (CVE-2014-0160) was published on 7 April 2014. Immediately after the announcement, organizations rushed to patch their systems. Meanwhile, just one day after the disclosure, a proof-of-concept tool3 capable of exploiting the Heartbleed bug began circulating, exposing unpatched systems to skilled and unskilled attackers alike. But more troubling is the fact that also a day after the disclosure, attacks leveraging the vulnerability began to occur,4 and the actions of some of the affected organizations in mitigating attacks or patching the vulnerability were already too late.5, 6 Timeline of one-day attacks for Heartbleed vulnerability 7 April 2014 through 9 April 2014 Figure 4. Timeline of one-day attacks for Heartbleed vulnerability (CVE-2014-0160), 7 April 2014 through 9 April 2014 7 April 2014 2014 Heartbleed security advisory issued (CVE-2014-0160) 9 April 2014 Mumsnet patched its systems, but a breach had already occurred 8 April 2014 First proof-of- concept began circulating Attack against a Mandiant client occurred Canadian Revenue Agency removed public access to its online services, but a breach had already occurred
  • 10. 10 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 Reflections of Java attacks in 2012 Heartbleed isn’t the first time one-day attacks have occurred— that is, attacks leveraging an already-patched vulnerability. In fact, X-Force analysts noted this trend after the disclosure of the 2012 Java vulnerability (CVE-2012-1723), as discussed in our IBM X-Force 2012 Trend and Risk Report. In the case of this Java vulnerability, a security researcher claimed that he was able to create a proof-of-concept exploit just a day after a fix was issued for the vulnerability, and a week later, published the details of the vulnerability.7 Fortunately, in this particular case, the proof-of-concept code was not released. However, the integration of working exploit code in a popular mass exploit kit8 —posted just a month after the patch was made available for the vulnerability—meant that many still-unpatched systems became potential targets via drive-by attacks. Later, the exploit for the vulnerability was integrated into other exploit kits, further increasing the risk of unpatched systems becoming compromised. Timeline of one-day attacks for 2012 Java vulnerability 12 June 2012 through 11 July 2012 Figure 5. Timeline of one-day attacks for 2012 Java vulnerability (CVE-2012-1723), 12 June 2012 through 11 July 2012 2012 12 June 2012 Java security advisory issued (CVE-2012-1723) 11 July 2012 Exploit code was integrated into the Blackhole exploit kit 19 June 2012 Security researcher published the vulnerability details 13 June 2012 Security researcher claimed that a proof-of-concept (private/unreleased) was successfully created
  • 11. IBM Security Systems 11 A race to patch Both the Heartbleed and Java vulnerability examples demonstrate that one-day attacks can be just as dangerous as zero-day attacks. Unlike zero-day attacks—where the vulnerability is unknown and a patch is not available—the issue with one-day attacks is in how long it takes a patch to be deployed. Patch management is a complex challenge, especially for large deployments and for mission-critical systems that require extensive pre-deployment testing. Additionally, if the vulnerability is in a widely-used library, such as the OpenSSL library as in the case of Heartbleed, the issue is further complicated because organizations are dependent on the additional time it takes for software vendors to integrate and test the patches in their own products before the patched product is handed off to them. This additional waiting time means an increased exposure window that attackers can turn to their own advantage. A race to exploit From an attacker’s standpoint, recently-patched vulnerabilities represent an opportunity, as they are potential (albeit temporary) weak points in their targets’ infrastructure. For one-day attacks, the goal of the attacker is to take advantage of the exposure window of organizations between when the patches are announced and when the patches are actually deployed. The following sections explain how attackers create one-day exploits, so you can understand how quickly a weaponized attack can take advantage of a patched vulnerability. Locating the patched bug Typically, attackers first need to identify the code that has been patched in response to a vulnerability. For open-source projects, this is a straightforward task because they can simply review publicly accessible source-code repositories and source-code check-ins relating to the vulnerability. For closed-source applications, they can use a process called “binary diffing” to find which parts of the binary code have changed, narrowing it down to changed functions and, eventually, the vulnerable code. For experienced attackers, binary diffing can be as straightforward as finding differences in source code. Our research has shown that an experienced attacker can find vulnerable code in just a few minutes (in the case of open- source applications with commented check-ins) to a maximum of a few hours (in the case of binary applications with multiple unrelated changes). Exploiting the bug The major factor that affects when an attacker might leverage a vulnerability is the difficulty involved with developing an exploit, or weaponizing it. On the one hand, there are vulnerabilities that can only be exploited if the application is in a particular state and/or exploit mitigations are bypassed. For these cases, more research time is required in order to develop a working exploit. But on the other hand, there are vulnerabilities that can easily be exploited and the associated exploit mitigations can be bypassed using previously-used or published techniques. For an experienced attacker, an exploit code for easy-to-exploit vulnerabilities can usually be developed within a few hours. In contrast, an exploit code for difficult-to-exploit vulnerabilities can take up to a few days, weeks or even months to develop, depending on the level of difficulty. Unfortunately, in the case of Heartbleed, development of exploit code was straightforward, as evidenced by the release of the exploit code just a day after the disclosure.
  • 12. 12 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 Mitigations The race to deploy patches and develop exploits will not always be won by organizations, and it is prudent to assume that most of the time, attackers may win. However, there are ways for organizations to improve their posture against one-day attacks while patches are being tested and deployed: • Apply workarounds. Check if the vendor provides guidance for a temporary workaround that can help prevent exploitation of the vulnerability. This may involve changing a particular configuration or temporarily disabling a module or a feature where the vulnerability exists or is being used as a vector for exploiting the vulnerability. • Block attacks. Security products—such as intrusion detection or intrusion prevention systems and anti-virus software—can serve as a first line of defense against exploitation of vulnerabilities while patches are being tested and deployed. Vendor programs such as the Microsoft Active Protections Program (MAPP)9 provide security software providers with early access to vulnerability information so that when Microsoft patches are released, security vendors can immediately release security content that can help detect and block exploits against the recently patched vulnerabilities. • Shut down systems temporarily. Although business leaders may object, another solution is to temporarily shut down or disconnect the affected system while a patch is being tested. This option may be the best way to help prevent the loss of customers’ personal or financial information. If a temporary shutdown of a vulnerable system will help stop their information from being stolen, customers will likely understand why a service is temporarily unavailable. Attackers are opportunistic; they will grab every opportunity to attack when a target is in a weak state. An organization’s best defense against one-day attacks is to be ready—to have action plans prepared and mitigations in place when a critical vulnerability is reported.
  • 13. IBM Security Systems 13 S ince 1997, X-Force has been tracking public disclosures of vulnerabilities in software products, such as the Heartbleed disclosure (CVE-2014-0160) from earlier this year. Our X-Force researchers collect software advisories from vendors, read security-related mailing lists, and analyze hundreds of vulnerability web pages where remedy data, exploits and vulnerabilities are disclosed. In the first half of 2014, we reported just over 3,900 new security vulnerabilities affecting 926 unique vendors. If this trend continues through the end of the year, the total projected vulnerabilities would fall below 8,000 total vulnerabilities for the first time since 2011. Vulnerability disclosures in the first half of 2014 What’s the state of security beyond Heartbleed? Find out about this year’s disclosure trends and proposed changes for vulnerability scoring. Vulnerability disclosures growth by year 1996 through 2014 (projected) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Figure 6. Vulnerability disclosures growth by year, 1996 through 2014 (projected) ProjectedEvent count
  • 14. 14 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 It is difficult to point to any one factor that has contributed to the decline in the number of vulnerability disclosures in 2014. However, it is interesting to note that the total number of vendors disclosing vulnerabilities has decreased year over year (1,602 vendors in 2013, compared to 926 vendors in 2014). Even with the projected decline in the overall number of vulnerability disclosures in 2014, the number of vulnerabilities disclosed by the largest enterprise software vendors remains relatively unchanged year over year (34 percent in 2013, compared to 32 percent in 2014), as shown in Figure 7. When looking at trends in enterprise software, the X-Force team looks at major software vendors who create the widest variety of enterprise software. We observed that out of thousands of vendors, these companies consistently disclose a significant number of security vulnerabilities. We categorize these vendors in a top 10 group, leaving out the content management system (CMS) vulnerabilities since the majority of those are in third-party plug-ins and add-ons and not widely used as enterprise-level software. These vendors typically have a more comprehensive approach to security that includes policies and practices for properly addressing and responding to security vulnerabilities, which likely leads to a larger number of public vulnerability disclosures.10 Vulnerability disclosures by large enterprise software vendors 2013 and 1H 2014 Figure 7. Vulnerability disclosures by large enterprise software vendors, 2013 and 1H 2014 Top 10 vendors Other vendors 32%34% 66% 68% 2013 1H 2014
  • 15. IBM Security Systems 15 Vulnerabilities in content management systems Vulnerabilities in CMS continue to be some of the most reported in 2014, accounting for nearly 10 percent of the total vulnerabilities researched. What’s more, the largest percentage of CMS vulnerabilities occur in plug-ins or modules written by third-party sources—not by the core CMS vendor. Many CMS plug-ins are maintained by one person or a small group of people, and they may have infrequent updates (or none at all). Therefore, many plug-ins contain tempting, unpatched security vulnerabilities. Figure 8 shows the lag in patch rates for plug-ins, as compared to core CMS platforms, and the data is unchanged since our 2013 reporting. While X-Force has previously cautioned against using CMS plug-ins, a new wave of attacks against these platforms was launched in recent months, showing the continued risk. Russian site Yandex reported on a malware dubbed the Mayhem Virus11 that seeks to compromise web servers through CMS vulnerabilities and brute-force attacks of weak or default credentials. After these web servers are compromised, they can be used to serve malware or carry out large-scale, high-bandwidth distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks against other sites and targets. For example, WordPress was used in an amplification DDoS attack in March 2014 that affected more than 162,000 sites.12 In this case, attackers used the legitimate functionality of the XML-RPC pingback feature to link blog content from different authors to a third-party website. Figure 8. Web application vulnerabilities for core CMS platforms and CMS plug-ins, as a percentage of all disclosures and corresponding patch rates, 1H 2014 Web application vulnerabilities for core CMS platforms and CMS plug-ins, 1H 2014 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Core CMS platforms CMS plug-ins 0.9% 8.4% Unpatched Patched 46% 22% 78% 54% Core CMS vulnerabilities, 1H 2014 CMS plug-in vulnerabilities, 1H 2014 Patch rates for CMS vulnerabilities
  • 16. 16 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 CVSS scoring X-Force uses version 2 of the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) to communicate the severity of vulnerabilities. We score vulnerabilities from three different perspectives: as a vulnerability database that tracks third-party vulnerability disclosures, as a security research organization that discovers new vulnerabilities, and as a large software vendor that needs to help customers accurately assess the severity of vulnerabilities within its products. X-Force is currently working alongside other organizations on developing the new CVSS, version 3.13 In the scoring of vulnerabilities for the first half of 2014, we found that the majority of issues fall into the CVSS medium- severity range (67 percent), with 24 percent of all vulnerabilities rated critical or high. As shown in Figure 9, these results are unchanged from 2013, and this is the third consecutive year where the majority of vulnerabilities have been rated as medium-level risks. CVSS base scores, 2012 through 1H 2014 Figure 9. CVSS base scores, 2012 through 1H 2014 CVSS base score 2012 CVSS base score 2013 CVSS base score 1H 2014 10 7.0 – 9.9 4.0 – 6.9 0.0 – 3.9 Critical A successful exploit is likely to have catastrophic adverse effects High A successful exploit is likely to have significant adverse effects Medium A successful exploit is likely to have moderate adverse effects Low A successful exploit is likely to have limited adverse effects 66% Medium 1% Critical 5% Low 28% High 67% Medium 2% Critical 8% Low 23% High 67% Medium 1% Critical 9% Low 23% High CVSS score Severity level
  • 17. IBM Security Systems 17 Many in the industry, including security analysts, corporate incident response teams and enterprise software consumers, have become dissatisfied with scoring inconsistencies that often occur across different organizations. Sometimes the inconsistencies are the result of the subjectivity that can go into how an individual or organization scores vulnerabilities, but they can also result from some of the inherent flaws in the current CVSS standard and a lack of clear guidelines on how to objectively assess certain types of vulnerabilities. As a result, the CVSS score often fails to reflect the true risk a vulnerability may pose to an organization, causing an overall loss of confidence in the CVSS score as an accurate and reliable measure of risk. To learn more about the concerns surrounding CVSS and the development of the new CVSS, version 3, refer to the CVSS v3 Development website, hosted by the Forum of Incident Response and Security Teams (FIRST).13 The most obvious example of how some CVSS scores do not always represent true risk and impact to an organization is the Heartbleed vulnerability. As mentioned earlier in this report, Heartbleed was disclosed in April 2014, but it had actually existed for two years. This vulnerability received a CVSS base score of 5.0, which falls into the medium-risk level—along with 67 percent of all other vulnerabilities reported during the first half of 2014. However, with the number of products impacted, the time and attention IT teams spent patching systems and responding to customer inquiries, as well as the potential sensitivity of data exposed, the true impact of the Heartbleed vulnerability was greater than the CVSS base score would indicate. This also brings to question what other vulnerabilities fell into the medium-risk category (CVSS base score 4.0 to 6.9) that may have been disregarded by organizations, but that also had potential large-scale impacts similar to Heartbleed. Final thoughts on the first half of 2014 Although overall vulnerability numbers are down for the first half of 2014, the impact to the top 10 enterprise software vendors remains consistent. It is uncertain at this point whether this trend will continue through the end of the year as attackers continue to seek higher impact/higher potential reward targets or whether we will see an increase in the second half of the year in the number of disclosed vulnerabilities against smaller vendors and components, such as CMS plug-ins. X-Force also anticipates the release and adoption of CVSS version 3 to help foster more consistency in risk assessment across organizations and more confidence in the use of CVSS as one of the primary components within an organization’s overall incident response plan. This way, when disclosures such as Heartbleed occur in the future, the industry as a whole will be better prepared for potential threats.
  • 18. 18 IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly 3Q 2014 The IBM X-Force research and development team studies and monitors the latest threat trends including vulnerabilities, exploits, malware, spam, phishing and malicious web content. The research team includes a variety of skill sets and backgrounds, leveraging IBM acquisitions in the Internet security market—including Internet Security Systems, IBM Trusteer™14 and IBM Security AppScan®—and combining them with intelligence from active network monitoring from the IBM Managed Security Services group. In addition to advising customers and the general public about emerging and critical threats, X-Force also develops security content and protection techniques to help protect IBM customers from these threats. IBM Security collaboration IBM Security represents several brands that provide a broad spectrum of security competency: • The IBM X-Force vulnerability research and development team discovers, analyzes, monitors and records a broad range of computer security threats, vulnerabilities, and the latest trends and methods used by attackers. Other groups within IBM use this rich data to develop protection techniques for our customers. • The IBM Trusteer product family delivers a holistic endpoint cybercrime prevention platform that helps protect organizations against financial fraud and data breaches. Hundreds of organizations and tens of millions of end users rely on these products from IBM Security to protect their web applications, computers and mobile devices from online threats (such as advanced malware and phishing attacks). • The IBM X-Force content security team independently scours and categorizes the web by crawling, independent discoveries, and through the feeds provided by IBM Managed Security Services. • IBM Managed Security Services is responsible for monitoring exploits related to endpoints, servers (including web servers) and general network infrastructure. This team tracks exploits delivered over the web as well as via other vectors such as email and instant messaging. • IBM Professional Security Services delivers enterprise-wide security assessment, design and deployment services to help build effective information security solutions. • IBM QRadar® Security Intelligence Platform offers an integrated solution for security intelligence and event management (SIEM), log management, configuration management, vulnerability assessment and anomaly detection. It provides a unified dashboard and real-time insight into security and compliance risks across people, data, applications and infrastructure. • IBM Security AppScan enables organizations to assess the security of web and mobile applications, strengthen application security program management and achieve regulatory compliance by identifying vulnerabilities and generating reports with intelligent fix recommendations to ease remediation. IBM Hosted Application Security Management service is a cloud-based solution for dynamic testing of web applications using AppScan in both pre- production and production environments. About X-Force Advanced threats are everywhere. Help minimize your risk with insights from the experts at IBM.
  • 19. IBM Security Systems 19 Contributor Title Brad Sherrill Manager, IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Database John Kuhn Senior Threat Researcher, IBM Managed Security Services Leslie Horacek Manager, IBM X-Force Threat Response Lyndon Sutherland Threat Intelligence Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services Mark Vincent Yason Senior Threat Researcher, IBM X-Force Advanced Research Nick Bradley Practice Lead, Threat Research Group Pamela Cobb Worldwide Market Segment Manager, IBM X-Force and IBM Security Threat Portfolio Robert Freeman Manager, IBM X-Force Advanced Research Scott Moore Software Developer, Team Lead, IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Database Thomas Van Tongerloo Senior Cyber Threat Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services Troy Bollinger Threat Intelligence Analyst, IBM Managed Security Services Producing the IBM X-Force Threat Intelligence Quarterly is a dedicated collaboration across all of IBM. We would like to thank the following individuals for their attention and contribution to the publication of this report. To learn more about IBM X-Force, please visit: ibm.com/security/xforce/ Contributors For more information
  • 20. © Copyright IBM Corporation 2014 IBM Corporation Software Group Route 100 Somers, NY 10589 Produced in the United States of America August 2014 IBM, the IBM logo, ibm.com, AppScan, QRadar, and X-Force are trademarks of International Business Machines Corp., registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. Other product and service names might be trademarks of IBM or other companies. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the web at “Copyright and trademark information” at ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml Trusteer is a trademark of Trusteer, an IBM Company. Microsoft is a trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. Java and all Java-based trademarks and logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Oracle and/or its affiliates. This document is current as of the initial date of publication and may be changed by IBM at any time. Not all offerings are available in every country in which IBM operates. THE INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED “AS IS” WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF NON- INFRINGEMENT. IBM products are warranted according to the terms and conditions of the agreements under which they are provided. The client is responsible for ensuring compliance with laws and regulations applicable to it. IBM does not provide legal advice or represent or warrant that its services or products will ensure that the client is in compliance with any law or regulation. Statements regarding IBM’s future direction and intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice, and represent goals and objectives only. Statement of Good Security Practices: IT system security involves protecting systems and information through prevention, detection and response to improper access from within and outside your enterprise. Improper access can result in information being altered, destroyed or misappropriated or can result in damage to or misuse of your systems, including to attack others. No IT system or product should be considered completely secure and no single product or security measure can be completely effective in preventing improper access. IBM systems and products are designed to be part of a comprehensive security approach, which will necessarily involve additional operational procedures, and may require other systems, products or services to be most effective. IBM does not warrant that systems and products are immune from the malicious or illegal conduct of any party. 1 Chris Poulin, “What to Do to Protect against Heartbleed OpenSSL Vulnerability,” IBM Security Intelligence Blog, 10 April 2014. http://securityintelligence.com/heartbleed-openssl-vulnerability-what- to-do-protect/ 2 “The Heartbleed Bug,” codenomicon, 29 April 2014. http://heartbleed.com 3 “Untitled,” pastebin, Accessed 25 July 2014. http://pastebin.com/qyXE7myF 4 Christopher Glyer and Chris DiGiamo, “Attackers Exploit the Heartbleed OpenSSL Vulnerability to Circumvent Multi-factor Authentication on VPNs,” Mandiant M-unition Blog, 18 April 2014. https://www.mandiant.com/blog/attackers-exploit-heartbleed- openssl-vulnerability-circumvent-multifactor-authentication-vpns/ 5 “Statement by the Commissioner of the Canada Revenue Agency on the Heartbleed Bug,” Reuters, 14 April 2014. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/ idUKnMKWbNWG8a+1dc+MKW20140414 6 “The Heartbleed security breed - and what to do,” Mumsnet, 16 April 2014. http://www.mumsnet.com/info/the-heartbleed-security-breach-to-do 7 Michael Schierl, “CVE-2012-1723 – Oracle Java Applet Field Bytecode Verifier Cache Remote Code Execution,” Accessed 25 July 2014. http://schierlm.users.sourceforge.net/CVE-2012-1723.html 8 Kafeine, “Inside Blackhole Exploits Kit v1.2.4 - Exploit Kit Control Panel,” Malware don’t need Coffee, 22 July 2012. http://malware.dontneedcoffee.com/2012/07/inside-blackhole- exploits-kit-v124.html 9 “Microsoft Active Protections Program,” Security TechCenter, Accessed 25 July 2014. http://technet.microsoft.com/en-US/security/dn467918 10 John Lucassen, “Are Vendors Doing What Is Needed to Mitigate Security Vulnerabilities?” IBM Security Intelligence Blog, 30 June 2014. http://securityintelligence.com/are-vendors-doing-what-is-needed-to- mitigate-security-vulnerabilities/#.U9FWSrG7IUi 11 Swati Khandelwal, “Mayhem — A New Malware Targets Linux and FreeBSD Web Servers,” The Hacker News, 24 July 2014. http://thehackernews.com/2014/07/mayhem-new-malware-targets- linux-and_24.html 12 Ryan Barnett, “More than 162,000 WordPress sites used in DDoS attack,” Trustwave SpiderLabs, 12 March 2014. http://blog.spiderlabs.com/2014/03/wordpress-xml-rpc-pingback- vulnerability-analysis.html 13 Seth Hanford, “Common Vulnerability Scoring System, V3 Development Update,” FIRST, June 2014. http://www.first.org/cvss/v3/development 14 Trusteer, Ltd. was acquired by IBM in September of 2013. WGL03057-USEN-01 Please Recycle