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Artificial Intelligence:
How can AI help me on the battlefield?
Prof dr ir Jan C. Scholtes
11th Airmobile Brigade
The Netherlands
Officers Day, April 26, 2019
2
Your presenter today:
Anthropomorphism
Forget
about
Hollywood
AI is reality
4
3rd Weapon Revolution
• Gunpowder
• Atomic power
• Artificial Intelligence
Many governments fear a new “Sputnik” moment
6
Near Future: huge government
investments in AI worldwide
Source: https://www.cifar.ca/cifarnews/2018/12/06/building-an-ai-world-report-on-
national-and-regional-ai-strategies
7
AI was Born on the Battlefield
• Alan Turing Enigma
(1942)
• TCP/IP (the internet)
(1983)
• Closed in Weapon
Systems (Phalanx)
(1973)
• Defensive Autonomous
Weapons (Patriot, C-
RAM) (1984-2006)
• Tomahawk and JDAM
(1991-1997)
8
Future Role of AI on the Battlefield
Intelligent Agents will be Targets,
but they can also be used as
Perpetrators or Defenders
9
Intelligence & Reconnaissance
10
Advanced Targeting and Lethality
Automated System (ATLAS)
In February 2019, the
U.S. Army asked
experts for ideas on
how to build a system
that would allow
tanks and other
ground-combat
vehicles to quickly
and automatically
“acquire, identify, and
engage” targets.
How can Artificial Intelligence help me on the Battlefield?
12
13
14
Cyber wars
Source: http://www.forbesindia.com/blog/life/the-geography-of-cyber-warfare/
How can Artificial Intelligence help me on the Battlefield?
The question of whether a computer can
think is no more interesting than the
question of whether a submarine can
swim.- Edsger Dijkstra
17
AI solves problems differently than
humans …
Computers have different skillset than humans. They excel in:
• Infinite speed & memory
• 24/7 availability
• Scalability
 A computer program can try something 100 millions of times in a
fraction of the time humans in order to fine tune all parameters to
find an optimal solution.
 Computer programs can use data structures representing 100
millions of features to find patterns and solve problems.
AI approaches language, vision, listening, and movement different than humans.
18
What is Artificial Intelligence?
19
What is an Autonomous Agent
• An autonomous agent
is an intelligent agent
operating on an owner's
behalf but without any
interference of that
ownership entity.
• Can be a computer
program but also a
robot, vehicle, drone or
vessel.
20
• 1997: Brute force
computer power
• No intuition or
creativity
Why is Artificial Intelligence Suddenly so Good??
21
• 2011: Text
retrieval &
Inferencing with
rules
• All knowledge
engineered by
humans
22
• 2016: Deep &
Reinforcement learning
• Creativity
• Self-learning
23
The development of AI
Brute force computer
power (evaluate 200
million positions per
second!). Algorithms
explicitly programmed
by check experts.
Massive information
retrieval (four
terabytes of
information). Little
learning or reasoning.
Based on (deep)
machine-learning.
Started with games
from professional
players. Learned
further from playing
30 million games
against itself.
24
This is only the beginning
How can Artificial Intelligence help me on the Battlefield?
Faculty Humanities and Sciences
Where does this growth come from ?
61 years of
exponential data
growth
27
As a result, the cost of technology is decimating
29
Exponential Growth: Deception
30
Technology is exponential, humans
are not!
32
Remember this …
Today, holograms are for real
Teleportation
Quantum computers
37
The Singularity is Near (2005)
The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil defines singularity as a time period
in which technology growth (exponential) is at a such a pace that it blurs
the distinct lines between nature and technology. The singularity is when
technology merges with and overtakes biology and the human brain.
Our intelligence becomes super powerful, evolving into a non-biological
entity with the extraordinary processing power of machines. This merge is
the core of singularity. Kurzweil believes it will be in 2045.
How can Artificial Intelligence help me on the Battlefield?
39
• AI Agents learn by using
imitation and reinforcement
learning (like AlphaGo).
• Create more realistic
enemies.
40
Computers are ruthless… fruit picking game
• Google’s AI got “highly
aggressive” when
competition got stressful in
a fruit-picking game.
• Shoot other players at
beginning of game.
41
42
Reinforcement Learning
• What is your
reward
function?
• Simulate 100
millions of
situations
43
How to Evaluate the Quality?
44
The Strength and Weakness of AI
Strengths
Skills
 Memory
 Speed
 Force
 Vision
 Sensory
Weakness
 Judgement
 Knowledge
 Dealing with
uncertainty
and
unexpected
behavior
 Creativity
45
Battlefield Challenges we have not Solved yet …
• “No plan survives
first contact with
enemy”
• Dinky, Dirty,
Dynamic and
Deceptive Data*
• Computers break
down, have bugs,
malfunction, need
repair, maintenance
and energy.
• Malware, viruses,
electro-magnetical
interference, …
46
AI on the Battlefield: where are we?
• Sensor fusion for reconnaissance &
intelligence
• Simulations & training
• Planning
• Exo-skeletons
• Medical & Logistical support
• Guided weapons
• Precision targeting
• Missile defense
• Cyber security
• Omnipresent and Omniscient
autonomous vehicles, vessels or
drones
• Autonomous intelligence and
reconnaissance missions
• Automatically “acquire, identify, and
engage” targets
• Strategic decisions: big-data-driven
modeling, simulation, and war
gaming
• AI guided cyber attacks
• …
Now Future
47
How about Policy Rules?
• The human in the
loop: robot selects,
human shoots.
• The human on the
loop: activated and
goes. Cancel button.
• The human off the
loop: mines.
How about robot
beyond the loop when
agents developing their
own policy rules. Then
we can either end up
with a Skynet or War
Games scenario. Should
be avoided at all times!
1. A robot may not injure a human being or,
through inaction, allow a human being to
come to harm.
2. A robot must obey orders given it by
human beings except where such orders
would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as
long as such protection does not conflict
with the First or Second Law.
48
The Campaign to Stop Killer
Robots, a coalition of non-
governmental organizations
working to ban autonomous
weapons and maintain
“meaningful human control over
the use of force”.
Source:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA&feat
ure=youtu.be
In 2017, Stuart Russell showed a dystopian future
brought on by autonomous military weaponry that
activists say would “decide who lives and dies, without
further human intervention, which crosses a moral
threshold.”
Robot Rights Movement
But how about the other way around?
51
A Compilation of Robots Falling Down at the DARPA Robotics Challenge:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo&feature=youtu.be
Thank you!
Time for Q&A
Prof dr ir Jan C. Scholtes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jscholtes/
www.textmining.nu

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How can Artificial Intelligence help me on the Battlefield?

  • 1. Artificial Intelligence: How can AI help me on the battlefield? Prof dr ir Jan C. Scholtes 11th Airmobile Brigade The Netherlands Officers Day, April 26, 2019
  • 4. 4 3rd Weapon Revolution • Gunpowder • Atomic power • Artificial Intelligence
  • 5. Many governments fear a new “Sputnik” moment
  • 6. 6 Near Future: huge government investments in AI worldwide Source: https://www.cifar.ca/cifarnews/2018/12/06/building-an-ai-world-report-on- national-and-regional-ai-strategies
  • 7. 7 AI was Born on the Battlefield • Alan Turing Enigma (1942) • TCP/IP (the internet) (1983) • Closed in Weapon Systems (Phalanx) (1973) • Defensive Autonomous Weapons (Patriot, C- RAM) (1984-2006) • Tomahawk and JDAM (1991-1997)
  • 8. 8 Future Role of AI on the Battlefield Intelligent Agents will be Targets, but they can also be used as Perpetrators or Defenders
  • 10. 10 Advanced Targeting and Lethality Automated System (ATLAS) In February 2019, the U.S. Army asked experts for ideas on how to build a system that would allow tanks and other ground-combat vehicles to quickly and automatically “acquire, identify, and engage” targets.
  • 12. 12
  • 13. 13
  • 16. The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim.- Edsger Dijkstra
  • 17. 17 AI solves problems differently than humans … Computers have different skillset than humans. They excel in: • Infinite speed & memory • 24/7 availability • Scalability  A computer program can try something 100 millions of times in a fraction of the time humans in order to fine tune all parameters to find an optimal solution.  Computer programs can use data structures representing 100 millions of features to find patterns and solve problems. AI approaches language, vision, listening, and movement different than humans.
  • 18. 18 What is Artificial Intelligence?
  • 19. 19 What is an Autonomous Agent • An autonomous agent is an intelligent agent operating on an owner's behalf but without any interference of that ownership entity. • Can be a computer program but also a robot, vehicle, drone or vessel.
  • 20. 20 • 1997: Brute force computer power • No intuition or creativity Why is Artificial Intelligence Suddenly so Good??
  • 21. 21 • 2011: Text retrieval & Inferencing with rules • All knowledge engineered by humans
  • 22. 22 • 2016: Deep & Reinforcement learning • Creativity • Self-learning
  • 23. 23 The development of AI Brute force computer power (evaluate 200 million positions per second!). Algorithms explicitly programmed by check experts. Massive information retrieval (four terabytes of information). Little learning or reasoning. Based on (deep) machine-learning. Started with games from professional players. Learned further from playing 30 million games against itself.
  • 24. 24 This is only the beginning
  • 26. Faculty Humanities and Sciences Where does this growth come from ? 61 years of exponential data growth
  • 27. 27
  • 28. As a result, the cost of technology is decimating
  • 30. 30
  • 31. Technology is exponential, humans are not!
  • 32. 32
  • 37. 37 The Singularity is Near (2005) The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil defines singularity as a time period in which technology growth (exponential) is at a such a pace that it blurs the distinct lines between nature and technology. The singularity is when technology merges with and overtakes biology and the human brain. Our intelligence becomes super powerful, evolving into a non-biological entity with the extraordinary processing power of machines. This merge is the core of singularity. Kurzweil believes it will be in 2045.
  • 39. 39 • AI Agents learn by using imitation and reinforcement learning (like AlphaGo). • Create more realistic enemies.
  • 40. 40 Computers are ruthless… fruit picking game • Google’s AI got “highly aggressive” when competition got stressful in a fruit-picking game. • Shoot other players at beginning of game.
  • 41. 41
  • 42. 42 Reinforcement Learning • What is your reward function? • Simulate 100 millions of situations
  • 43. 43 How to Evaluate the Quality?
  • 44. 44 The Strength and Weakness of AI Strengths Skills  Memory  Speed  Force  Vision  Sensory Weakness  Judgement  Knowledge  Dealing with uncertainty and unexpected behavior  Creativity
  • 45. 45 Battlefield Challenges we have not Solved yet … • “No plan survives first contact with enemy” • Dinky, Dirty, Dynamic and Deceptive Data* • Computers break down, have bugs, malfunction, need repair, maintenance and energy. • Malware, viruses, electro-magnetical interference, …
  • 46. 46 AI on the Battlefield: where are we? • Sensor fusion for reconnaissance & intelligence • Simulations & training • Planning • Exo-skeletons • Medical & Logistical support • Guided weapons • Precision targeting • Missile defense • Cyber security • Omnipresent and Omniscient autonomous vehicles, vessels or drones • Autonomous intelligence and reconnaissance missions • Automatically “acquire, identify, and engage” targets • Strategic decisions: big-data-driven modeling, simulation, and war gaming • AI guided cyber attacks • … Now Future
  • 47. 47 How about Policy Rules? • The human in the loop: robot selects, human shoots. • The human on the loop: activated and goes. Cancel button. • The human off the loop: mines. How about robot beyond the loop when agents developing their own policy rules. Then we can either end up with a Skynet or War Games scenario. Should be avoided at all times! 1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. 2. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. 3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
  • 48. 48 The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, a coalition of non- governmental organizations working to ban autonomous weapons and maintain “meaningful human control over the use of force”. Source:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CO6M2HsoIA&feat ure=youtu.be In 2017, Stuart Russell showed a dystopian future brought on by autonomous military weaponry that activists say would “decide who lives and dies, without further human intervention, which crosses a moral threshold.”
  • 50. But how about the other way around?
  • 51. 51 A Compilation of Robots Falling Down at the DARPA Robotics Challenge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0TaYhjpOfo&feature=youtu.be
  • 52. Thank you! Time for Q&A Prof dr ir Jan C. Scholtes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jscholtes/ www.textmining.nu