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© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Patrick Tucker
Technology Editor, Defense One @deftechpat
AI and the Future of the U.S.
Defense Department
I, Robot… You?
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Now consider GO
Chess # of branching moves = around 30-40 vs. GO = 200-250
Marriage = ?
Exponential Advancement in Artificial
Intelligence
“The machine isn’t going to walk out of the hotel there and start doing extraordinary
things. It can’t manage a baseball team, can’t tell you what to do with a bad
marriage.
– George Plimpton after watching Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in 1997
“
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Narrow AI: Applications of machine learning and algos to specific, defined
tasks… translate this, solve this calculation, find this.
Central questions:
• Did we define this problem correctly?
• Do we understand the scaling functions?
Today’s AI (ML) Narrow and Everywhere
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
General AI: Applications of machine learning, and possibly deep
learning, neural nets or other techniques for dealing with
amounts of unstructured data to a much wider class of problems
(general) … fix this problem, invent, create, predict.
Central questions:
• Are we mistaking its judgement for our own?
• How do we trust it?
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
General AI + Bad Data = Bad Day
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
• Clear public mandate to strive for superiority, labor concerns subordinate
• Peer competitors have same mandate
• Unlike some other sectors of the economy, defense suffers chronic talent
labor shortage in relation to size of problem (too much data, two few
humans to produce better national security outcomes from data)
Result: The defense space will have an impact on the
future of AI because they can bypass labor concerns
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
SEPTEMBER 26, 2017
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
When Robots Storm the Beach
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
There will be 44 times as much
digital information in 2020 (35ZB) as
there was in 2009 according to IDC
((.8 ZB) according to IDC.)
© 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Thank you!
@Deftechpat

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AI and the Future of the U.S. Defense Department

  • 1. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Patrick Tucker Technology Editor, Defense One @deftechpat AI and the Future of the U.S. Defense Department I, Robot… You?
  • 2. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 3. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Now consider GO Chess # of branching moves = around 30-40 vs. GO = 200-250 Marriage = ? Exponential Advancement in Artificial Intelligence “The machine isn’t going to walk out of the hotel there and start doing extraordinary things. It can’t manage a baseball team, can’t tell you what to do with a bad marriage. – George Plimpton after watching Deep Blue beat Gary Kasparov in 1997 “
  • 4. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Narrow AI: Applications of machine learning and algos to specific, defined tasks… translate this, solve this calculation, find this. Central questions: • Did we define this problem correctly? • Do we understand the scaling functions? Today’s AI (ML) Narrow and Everywhere
  • 5. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 6. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. General AI: Applications of machine learning, and possibly deep learning, neural nets or other techniques for dealing with amounts of unstructured data to a much wider class of problems (general) … fix this problem, invent, create, predict. Central questions: • Are we mistaking its judgement for our own? • How do we trust it?
  • 7. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. General AI + Bad Data = Bad Day
  • 8. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. • Clear public mandate to strive for superiority, labor concerns subordinate • Peer competitors have same mandate • Unlike some other sectors of the economy, defense suffers chronic talent labor shortage in relation to size of problem (too much data, two few humans to produce better national security outcomes from data) Result: The defense space will have an impact on the future of AI because they can bypass labor concerns
  • 9. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 10. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 11. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 12. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
  • 13. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. SEPTEMBER 26, 2017
  • 14. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. When Robots Storm the Beach
  • 15. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. There will be 44 times as much digital information in 2020 (35ZB) as there was in 2009 according to IDC ((.8 ZB) according to IDC.)
  • 16. © 2018, Amazon Web Services, Inc. or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Thank you! @Deftechpat