China & Japan’s mobile internet market




  BO Yiqun, VP & Co-Founder | Great Wall Club | www.thegreatwallclub.com
            NRC Beijing Annual Fall Conference| September 2010
薄益群
BO Yiqun
www.thegreatwallclub.com
Biz platform for global mobile
      internet executives
      China  Asia  West
GMIC: #1 mobile internet conference
               in China
+800 attendees, ~40% internationals, 18 countries, +50% executives
Monthly event   Monday Dinner

    GTrip         Consulting
Agenda
1. Where we are?

2. Where is the money?

3. Is there any local innovation?

4. What can we learn from Japan?
1. Where we are?
large
#1 digital population

  Country
 population      300       1300                  127                   50

Internet users   238        420                    99                  39
    (MM)         (2009)   (Jun 2010)            (2009)               (2009)

Mobile users     286        805                  112                   47
  (MM)           (2009)   (Jun 2010)          (Aug 2010)             (2009)



                   1/5                        1,677 MM
                   <1/2
                   <1/3
                              =                558 MM
                                               964 MM

                             Source: MIIT, Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, Wireless Watch Japan
potential
High potential in China




 Internet users             32%                        77%
       (MM)               (Jun 2010)                   (2009)

 Mobile users               60%                        92%
       (MM)               (Jun 2010)                   (2009)

 Over 50% additional
users from rural market
 = Actively expanded
     “Blue Ocean”
                                       Source: MIIT, Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, GWC
Mobile Internet taking off (1)
• Fixed-line                   For many users
• Mobile                         and SMEs,
                              Internet will only
                                  be mobile
                         70
    Penetration rate %




                         60    Mobile = 60%
                         50
                         40
                         30
                         20    Fixed-line = 23%
                         10
                          0




                                                   Source: MIIT
Mobile Internet taking off (2)
277MM mobile internet users, 49MM connect Internet
                 only via mobile

             Cost of laptop
             Traffic pricing
        3G, Smart phone, Apps

 We expect Mobile Internet market is going to boom
                     next year


                                        Source: CNNIC, GWC, Aug 2010
No dominant yet


           Mobile
          operator




                     Service &
Handset
                       App
 maker
                     provider
2. Where is the money?
3G
    =
  Girls
Gambling
 Games
3G
    =
   X
  Girls
   X
Gambling
 Games
Mobile game market in China

    1.8 bln RMB in 2009
What else?
Who makes money?
iPhone developer or Apple?
vs
3. Is there any local innovation?
Low cost of handset making
• Low price

• Short time-to-
  market
                                 125~142 USD
• Over 90% of
  functions are
  directly onto
  the MTK chip



                         Source: an e-commerce site, Jan 2010
“Obama” Endorses Chinese
              “BlockBerry”
• “BlockBerry” made by HAFF-COMM




                                   Source: The Wall Street Journal Blogs, Jun 2009
Low cost creates variety



Shaver phone
                                  Cigarette case shaped

                                                          Barbie dressing case phone
                   PSP shaped, popular
                    games preinstalled
                                                             Watch phone




   Car shaped
                                                           Solar power rechargeable
                    Super lens attachable
                                                                   handset
Apple “peel”
                      From iTouch to iPhone




From iPad to laptop
Local features create



Job service in mobile just for
      migrant workers




         Fake info
        filtering is
         the key!
B2C instead of B2B
Company   Operating Margin   Online Ad / Total
                                   rev.
NetEase         60%                13%
Tencent        48.6%                8%
 Sohu          39.6%               34%           Sohu’s online gaming biz lists in Apr 2009
Shanda         38.9%               <4%           with a market cap over 1.8 bln USD.  1st
                                                      IPO on Nasdaq since Nov 2008
Online payment popular in a
    country with low-trust
           Low trust                                 E-commerce booming

• Few credit card                                • 142MM online shopping
   – 2.3% of Chinese own credit                    users by June 2010
     card                                             – vs. 114MM for Amazon.com
                                                        and 90MM for eBay
• Bad credit system                              • Taobao GMV: $29B in 2009,
   – Huge population
                                                   up 2x Y/Y
   – Unbalanced economic
                                                      – accounting for 1.5-2% of
     development
                                                        China’s overall retail sales

  Alipay’s (brother company of Taobao) online escrow system helps both buyer and seller
      build trust between each other, and largely accelerated online shopping market.


                                                                   Source: Morgan Stanley, CNNIC
4. What we can learn from
         Japan?
127 MM people

88%, or 112 MM mobile users
3G started 10 years ago


~100% mobile are 3G today
mobile internet started 11
 years ago with i-mode
 94 MM mobile internet
       users today
                             Source: NTT DoCoMo
High ARPU - mobile data service
makes up 30% of total revenue
Japan from 2004 to 2007




                     Source: Plus Eight Star
SNS is making money
            •   5 SNS listed in stock market
            •   4 in Asia
            •   3 in Japan
            •   2 nearly pure mobile




                                     3 bln USD



                                     4 bln USD
2008

                           Users                Mostly PC     Mostly Mobile
                                                users         users
                           Market Value         30 (E)        3
                           (billion USD)
                           User Total (MM)      +500          ~20
                           Revenue (MM          635 (E)       352
                           USD)
                           Profit Ratio         Loss          32%
                           Business Model       97%           Advertising(23
                                                Advertisin    %),Virtual
 Yashikazu Tanaka                               g             Goods and
    CEO, Gree                                                 Games
                           Revenue from         3%            77%
                           User Fees
2nd youngest billionaire
      in the world

                                          Source: Gree, GWC
Zappallas
• Introduction                                   Paid user percentage>40%,
                                                   way higher that that of
   – Founded in March 2000                         traditional internet (5-
   – Started fortune-telling business in April    10%).Tencent's paid user        Paying users
     2004                                             percentage is 8%                                    1.5M
                                                                                    2.2 mln             fortune-
                                                  (considering only active
   – Went public in May 2005 (TYO:3700)                     users).
                                                                                                      telling users

   – Employees:171 as of April 2009
   – Japan's largest mobile fortune-telling                                        Free users
     service provider                                                               2.9 mln


• Facts –July 2009                                                            20~34 Female Users
   – 5,154,000 active users, of them
     2,223,000 are paid users
   – Far more female users than male users                                                Male
   – Average age of users: 29.1
   – Runs 240 fortune-telling websites
                                                                                  Female



                                                                                  Source: Zappallas
Zappallas
• Financial Situation – 2008
                                                                  Zappallas Revenue
   – Revenue:103M USD
   – Profit:26.3%                                                  Ad
   – Market value:210M USD                              Mobile Commerce


• Business Model                                                                 Paid content service
   –    Paid services: fortune-telling+ mobile email
   –    Mobile commerce
   –    Advertising
   –    Fortune-telling revenue makes up 40% of Japan’s
        mobile internet revenue.
                                                                        Source : Zappallas
       According to i-mode, 5 of the top 10 fortune-telling
        websites are run by Zappallas.
Zappallas
• Business Concept
   – “Fortune-telling:the mobile content users never get tired of Service grows
     steadily”
       • Three types of content are checked by users everyday: Weather forcast,
          News, and fortune-telling
       • In Japan, fortune-telling also appears frequently on TV and print media,
          especially on women magazines.
   – Fortune-telling enables Zappallas to understand customer behaviors and make
     effective marketing strategies.
       • Users are required to fill in their personal infromation such as location, Masanori SUGIYAMA
          birthday, occupation and blood type.                                      Former CEO, Zappallas
       • In order to get accurate results, users will provide accurate/commplete
          information.
       • Most users use the service everyday, enabling Zappallas to keep track of
          their latest information.
       • Even users who use the service only once will leave their information
          stored in Zappallas servers.
   – User DemographicsUnderstanding User Behaviors Effective Marketing
     Strategies
   – No one complains about the accuracy of fortune-telling, people do it for fun.
Operators dominate Japan's mobile
            industry
• Operators dominate cell phone market
• Operators dominate mobile content market
• They invest in CP
                                Mobile UGC


                                Mobile SNS


                                Mobile commerce


                                Mobile portal
Japan's mobile commerce, twice the
            mobile content market
•   Beginning from 2004, Japan's mobile commerce sales exceeds that of content. In
    2008, MC is about twice as much as CP.

                             Mobile
                                                   MC market
                            Commerce
                              (MC)                 8.7 bln USD
      Individual
        Users                                                                  2008
                             Mobile
                                                    CP market
                             Content
                                                   4.8 bln USD
                               (CP)

       Advertis              Advertis              Mobile Ad
         ers                   ers                  market                     2007
                                                  620 mln USD




                                                        Source: 总务省 (Japan), MCF (Japan)
Conclusion on Japan
• Not only high ARPU, but real mobile data
  services, 30% of total revenue

• Key factors of success: network, data pricing,
  handset, content

• Mobile operators dominate the market
About Great Wall Club
About Great Wall Club
• GWC, Global Mobile Internet CEO Club!
   – Presently 73 members from China, Japan, Korea, Russia and Europe
   – Headquartered in Beijing, having subsidiaries in Japan and Singapore


• Vision, Mission and Target
   – To be a leading global business platform for mobile internet
   – Friendship, Cooperation and Globalization
What We Do
• Build a worldwide CEO-level network in the mobile internet
  industry
• Organize annual event: GMIC (Global Mobile Internet
  Conference)
• Organize monthly events
   –   GWC Salon
   –   Internal Communication Meeting
   –   Monday Dinner
   –   Study Trip
   –   Summit
• Market research: Gport Weekly, other market reports
Our Members (partly)

 Leilei WANG       David WEI     Xiaofeng SHAO Gaofei WANG                 Ke DING                Renfei DAI         Tao SONG
KongZhong, CEO Alibaba Inc., CEO Alipay, President Sina Wireless, GM Tencent Wireless GM China Unicom Newspace, GM Sky-Mobi, CEO




Xiangdong ZHANG         Shuang LIU        Bin LIU            Yongfu YU      Joshua MA              Haila WANG              Jerry LI
3g.cn, President Phoenix New Media, CEO Yicha, CEO          UCWEB, CEO    MadHouse, CEO         Orange Beijing, CEO       PP.cn, CEO




  Yilong LAI         Rong MU            Zhihao ZHANG        Song CHEN      Jianwu ZHU               Xi WANG               Dongwan PU
 Labox, CEO         Bedo, CEO            12580, CEO        Byread, CEO     Lexun, CEO              Easou, CEO         Xunjie Network, CEO




  Alex LIANG           Xinyu LI        Yongquan XIAO       Gang WU       Weiguo ZHAO               Yongzhe JIN               Yu LIN
  PICA, CEO       Talkweb, President    d.cn, President   3GV8, CEO CEYUAN Ventures, President Senior VP, SKT China       NetQin, CEO
Our Members

Europe

               Kirill Pctrov   Evgeny Kosolapov             Jari P.                 PauI Asel      Rune Bundesen
                  i-Free       United Fun Traders Finland Investment Bureau   Nokia Growth Partners NeoConsult
                   CEO                CEO             Senior BD Director       Managing Director        CEO




Japan

                Akio Tanaka        Masanori Sugiyama Hirokazu Mashita          Masahiro Irie    Hoshuyama Takayuki
         Infinity Venture Partners    ZAPPALLAS     Hikari Tsushin Group,      Yicha Japan     D2Communications COO
                 Co-Founder              CEO              Chairman                 CEO



Korea

               Jin Ho Hur          Chongsik Kim           Jeong Ho Kim          Young il Lee        James Song
             Neowiz Internet    INNOACE / KWISA          NHN, Hangame             Com2us             GameVIL
                  CEO                 CEO                     CEO               CEO & CTO              CEO
Next GMIC




April 27-28, 2010, Beijing
Contact us
www.thegreatwallclub.com
                                          Tel: +86 10 5167 2880
                                          Fax: +86 10 5167 2887

yiqun@thegreatwallclub.com                        Address:
                                          Room 0709-0711, Jing
                                               Liang Building
                                           No.16 East 3rd Ring
                                                Middle Road
http://www.slideshare.net/greatwallclub     Chaoyang District
                                          Beijing, China, 100022
Thanks

China and Japan's mobile internet

  • 1.
    China & Japan’smobile internet market BO Yiqun, VP & Co-Founder | Great Wall Club | www.thegreatwallclub.com NRC Beijing Annual Fall Conference| September 2010
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
    Biz platform forglobal mobile internet executives China  Asia  West
  • 5.
    GMIC: #1 mobileinternet conference in China +800 attendees, ~40% internationals, 18 countries, +50% executives
  • 6.
    Monthly event Monday Dinner GTrip Consulting
  • 7.
    Agenda 1. Where weare? 2. Where is the money? 3. Is there any local innovation? 4. What can we learn from Japan?
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
    #1 digital population Country population 300 1300 127 50 Internet users 238 420 99 39 (MM) (2009) (Jun 2010) (2009) (2009) Mobile users 286 805 112 47 (MM) (2009) (Jun 2010) (Aug 2010) (2009) 1/5 1,677 MM <1/2 <1/3 = 558 MM 964 MM Source: MIIT, Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, Wireless Watch Japan
  • 11.
  • 12.
    High potential inChina Internet users 32% 77% (MM) (Jun 2010) (2009) Mobile users 60% 92% (MM) (Jun 2010) (2009) Over 50% additional users from rural market = Actively expanded “Blue Ocean” Source: MIIT, Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, GWC
  • 13.
    Mobile Internet takingoff (1) • Fixed-line For many users • Mobile and SMEs, Internet will only be mobile 70 Penetration rate % 60 Mobile = 60% 50 40 30 20 Fixed-line = 23% 10 0 Source: MIIT
  • 14.
    Mobile Internet takingoff (2) 277MM mobile internet users, 49MM connect Internet only via mobile Cost of laptop Traffic pricing 3G, Smart phone, Apps We expect Mobile Internet market is going to boom next year Source: CNNIC, GWC, Aug 2010
  • 15.
    No dominant yet Mobile operator Service & Handset App maker provider
  • 16.
    2. Where isthe money?
  • 17.
    3G = Girls Gambling Games
  • 18.
    3G = X Girls X Gambling Games
  • 19.
    Mobile game marketin China 1.8 bln RMB in 2009
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
    3. Is thereany local innovation?
  • 25.
    Low cost ofhandset making • Low price • Short time-to- market 125~142 USD • Over 90% of functions are directly onto the MTK chip Source: an e-commerce site, Jan 2010
  • 26.
    “Obama” Endorses Chinese “BlockBerry” • “BlockBerry” made by HAFF-COMM Source: The Wall Street Journal Blogs, Jun 2009
  • 27.
    Low cost createsvariety Shaver phone Cigarette case shaped Barbie dressing case phone PSP shaped, popular games preinstalled Watch phone Car shaped Solar power rechargeable Super lens attachable handset
  • 28.
    Apple “peel” From iTouch to iPhone From iPad to laptop
  • 29.
    Local features create Jobservice in mobile just for migrant workers Fake info filtering is the key!
  • 30.
    B2C instead ofB2B Company Operating Margin Online Ad / Total rev. NetEase 60% 13% Tencent 48.6% 8% Sohu 39.6% 34% Sohu’s online gaming biz lists in Apr 2009 Shanda 38.9% <4% with a market cap over 1.8 bln USD.  1st IPO on Nasdaq since Nov 2008
  • 31.
    Online payment popularin a country with low-trust Low trust E-commerce booming • Few credit card • 142MM online shopping – 2.3% of Chinese own credit users by June 2010 card – vs. 114MM for Amazon.com and 90MM for eBay • Bad credit system • Taobao GMV: $29B in 2009, – Huge population up 2x Y/Y – Unbalanced economic – accounting for 1.5-2% of development China’s overall retail sales Alipay’s (brother company of Taobao) online escrow system helps both buyer and seller build trust between each other, and largely accelerated online shopping market. Source: Morgan Stanley, CNNIC
  • 32.
    4. What wecan learn from Japan?
  • 33.
    127 MM people 88%,or 112 MM mobile users
  • 34.
    3G started 10years ago ~100% mobile are 3G today
  • 35.
    mobile internet started11 years ago with i-mode 94 MM mobile internet users today Source: NTT DoCoMo
  • 36.
    High ARPU -mobile data service makes up 30% of total revenue
  • 37.
    Japan from 2004to 2007 Source: Plus Eight Star
  • 38.
    SNS is makingmoney • 5 SNS listed in stock market • 4 in Asia • 3 in Japan • 2 nearly pure mobile 3 bln USD 4 bln USD
  • 39.
    2008 Users Mostly PC Mostly Mobile users users Market Value 30 (E) 3 (billion USD) User Total (MM) +500 ~20 Revenue (MM 635 (E) 352 USD) Profit Ratio Loss 32% Business Model 97% Advertising(23 Advertisin %),Virtual Yashikazu Tanaka g Goods and CEO, Gree Games Revenue from 3% 77% User Fees 2nd youngest billionaire in the world Source: Gree, GWC
  • 40.
    Zappallas • Introduction Paid user percentage>40%, way higher that that of – Founded in March 2000 traditional internet (5- – Started fortune-telling business in April 10%).Tencent's paid user Paying users 2004 percentage is 8% 1.5M 2.2 mln fortune- (considering only active – Went public in May 2005 (TYO:3700) users). telling users – Employees:171 as of April 2009 – Japan's largest mobile fortune-telling Free users service provider 2.9 mln • Facts –July 2009 20~34 Female Users – 5,154,000 active users, of them 2,223,000 are paid users – Far more female users than male users Male – Average age of users: 29.1 – Runs 240 fortune-telling websites Female Source: Zappallas
  • 41.
    Zappallas • Financial Situation– 2008 Zappallas Revenue – Revenue:103M USD – Profit:26.3% Ad – Market value:210M USD Mobile Commerce • Business Model Paid content service – Paid services: fortune-telling+ mobile email – Mobile commerce – Advertising – Fortune-telling revenue makes up 40% of Japan’s mobile internet revenue. Source : Zappallas According to i-mode, 5 of the top 10 fortune-telling websites are run by Zappallas.
  • 42.
    Zappallas • Business Concept – “Fortune-telling:the mobile content users never get tired of Service grows steadily” • Three types of content are checked by users everyday: Weather forcast, News, and fortune-telling • In Japan, fortune-telling also appears frequently on TV and print media, especially on women magazines. – Fortune-telling enables Zappallas to understand customer behaviors and make effective marketing strategies. • Users are required to fill in their personal infromation such as location, Masanori SUGIYAMA birthday, occupation and blood type. Former CEO, Zappallas • In order to get accurate results, users will provide accurate/commplete information. • Most users use the service everyday, enabling Zappallas to keep track of their latest information. • Even users who use the service only once will leave their information stored in Zappallas servers. – User DemographicsUnderstanding User Behaviors Effective Marketing Strategies – No one complains about the accuracy of fortune-telling, people do it for fun.
  • 43.
    Operators dominate Japan'smobile industry • Operators dominate cell phone market • Operators dominate mobile content market • They invest in CP Mobile UGC Mobile SNS Mobile commerce Mobile portal
  • 44.
    Japan's mobile commerce,twice the mobile content market • Beginning from 2004, Japan's mobile commerce sales exceeds that of content. In 2008, MC is about twice as much as CP. Mobile MC market Commerce (MC) 8.7 bln USD Individual Users 2008 Mobile CP market Content 4.8 bln USD (CP) Advertis Advertis Mobile Ad ers ers market 2007 620 mln USD Source: 总务省 (Japan), MCF (Japan)
  • 45.
    Conclusion on Japan •Not only high ARPU, but real mobile data services, 30% of total revenue • Key factors of success: network, data pricing, handset, content • Mobile operators dominate the market
  • 46.
  • 47.
    About Great WallClub • GWC, Global Mobile Internet CEO Club! – Presently 73 members from China, Japan, Korea, Russia and Europe – Headquartered in Beijing, having subsidiaries in Japan and Singapore • Vision, Mission and Target – To be a leading global business platform for mobile internet – Friendship, Cooperation and Globalization
  • 48.
    What We Do •Build a worldwide CEO-level network in the mobile internet industry • Organize annual event: GMIC (Global Mobile Internet Conference) • Organize monthly events – GWC Salon – Internal Communication Meeting – Monday Dinner – Study Trip – Summit • Market research: Gport Weekly, other market reports
  • 49.
    Our Members (partly) Leilei WANG David WEI Xiaofeng SHAO Gaofei WANG Ke DING Renfei DAI Tao SONG KongZhong, CEO Alibaba Inc., CEO Alipay, President Sina Wireless, GM Tencent Wireless GM China Unicom Newspace, GM Sky-Mobi, CEO Xiangdong ZHANG Shuang LIU Bin LIU Yongfu YU Joshua MA Haila WANG Jerry LI 3g.cn, President Phoenix New Media, CEO Yicha, CEO UCWEB, CEO MadHouse, CEO Orange Beijing, CEO PP.cn, CEO Yilong LAI Rong MU Zhihao ZHANG Song CHEN Jianwu ZHU Xi WANG Dongwan PU Labox, CEO Bedo, CEO 12580, CEO Byread, CEO Lexun, CEO Easou, CEO Xunjie Network, CEO Alex LIANG Xinyu LI Yongquan XIAO Gang WU Weiguo ZHAO Yongzhe JIN Yu LIN PICA, CEO Talkweb, President d.cn, President 3GV8, CEO CEYUAN Ventures, President Senior VP, SKT China NetQin, CEO
  • 50.
    Our Members Europe Kirill Pctrov Evgeny Kosolapov Jari P. PauI Asel Rune Bundesen i-Free United Fun Traders Finland Investment Bureau Nokia Growth Partners NeoConsult CEO CEO Senior BD Director Managing Director CEO Japan Akio Tanaka Masanori Sugiyama Hirokazu Mashita Masahiro Irie Hoshuyama Takayuki Infinity Venture Partners ZAPPALLAS Hikari Tsushin Group, Yicha Japan D2Communications COO Co-Founder CEO Chairman CEO Korea Jin Ho Hur Chongsik Kim Jeong Ho Kim Young il Lee James Song Neowiz Internet INNOACE / KWISA NHN, Hangame Com2us GameVIL CEO CEO CEO CEO & CTO CEO
  • 51.
  • 52.
    Contact us www.thegreatwallclub.com Tel: +86 10 5167 2880 Fax: +86 10 5167 2887 yiqun@thegreatwallclub.com Address: Room 0709-0711, Jing Liang Building No.16 East 3rd Ring Middle Road http://www.slideshare.net/greatwallclub Chaoyang District Beijing, China, 100022
  • 53.