Future of Work: Heather McGowan
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Deck from a talk at the Mackinaw Policy Conference on the imperative of life long learning in workforce development.
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Future of Work: Heather McGowan
- 1. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan 1 What Is Happening 2 Why It Matters 3 How To Think Differently Heather E. McGowan Context About The Future of Work and Learning
- 2. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan 1 What Is Happening
- 3. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan RESILIENCE + PROPULSION CommunityGeopoliticsWork/Learn WHAT IS HAPPENING | FRIEDMAN THEORY: 3 CLIMATE CHANGES Ethics RE- SHAPING POLITICS Technology Moore’s Law Exponential Change Climate Later To Now Market Interconnected To Interdependent My Focus
- 4. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan WHAT IS HAPPENING | Linear Vs. Exponential Change CHANGE TIME 1 Billion Meters 26x Around Globe 30 Meters 2 3 4 5 5 1 2 4 8 16 32 1
- 5. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan WHAT IS HAPPENING | Rising Machine Intelligence 1950 2000 CAPABILITY Human Machine (Non Biological) Intelligence 2050 TIME
- 6. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan End of the 18th century Start of the 20th Century Start of 1970s Today 1.0 Steam Engine Mechanical Manufacturing 2.0 Electricity, Mass Production, Division of Labor 3.0 Computer, Automation of Manufacturing 4.0 Cyber-Physical Systems, Internet of Things Learning Agility, Adaptability, Empathy, Trans-disciplinary Deep Expertise, Disciplinary STEM Business Reduce Risk, Standardization, Certainty Physical Labor, Basic Engineering Learn A Skill Talent TIME COMPLEXITY WHAT IS HAPPENING: Next Industrial Revolution (World Economic Forum 4th)
- 7. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowanTALENT TIMESPAN TIME: WE ARE HERE TOOLS Strength + Speed Creativity, Agility + Adaptability Acquired Knowledge + Skill Efficiency + Optimization Know How + Stamina 1,000,000s 10s100s1,000s Hunter – Gather Era Agricultural Era Industrial Era Information Era Augmented Era Labor Efficiency Labor Augmentation Labor Replacement Cognitive Reduction Cognitive Augmentation Concept of Augmented Era © Jeff Kowalski, CTO Autodesk OUR MENTAL MODELS ARE HERE WHAT IS HAPPENING: Talent Shifts in The Next Era
- 8. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan 2 Why It Matters
- 9. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan CAREEREDUCATIONRETIRE K-12 University Ladder Job Career Age 5- 18/22 Age 18/22- 65 Pension Age 66+ Life Expectancy 67 Success Measures: Codified and Transferred Skills + Knowledge WHY IT MATTERS: Old Economy Paradigm (Context) Job
- 10. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan LEVERAGELEARNLONGEVITY LEARN LEARN LEARN LEARN LEARN LEARN Engagement Engagement Engagement Engagement Engagement Engagement Remain Engaged Life Expectancy 90+Success Measures: Learning Agility, Adaptability, Agency WHY IT MATTERS: New Reality Paradigm
- 11. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan LEARN LEARN LEARNUNLEARN RELEARN Image credit: Giulia Forsythe WHY IT MATTERS: The Illiterate of the 21st Century (Asimov)
- 12. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan WHY IT MATTERS: We Must Retire These Questions What Do You Want To Be When You Grow Up? What Is Your Major? What Do You Do? Work In Their Major Automated by 2033 Jobs That Do Not Exist Yet65% 47% 27% 17 5Jobs Industries
- 13. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan 3 How To Think Differently
- 14. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowanWHAT HOW WHY WHAT The Company Sells HOW The Company Is Special WHY The Company Exists PRODUCT PROCESS PURPOSE HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: (Sinek) Start With Why Start With Why: Simon Sinek
- 15. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan We Make Computers And Electronics We Challenge The Status Quo By Making Technology Easy To Use In Everything We Do, We Challenge Status Quo, We THINK DIFFERENT WHAT HOW WHY PRODUCT PROCESS PURPOSE Computer Phone Media Home HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: (Sinek) Start With Why: Apple
- 16. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan How Do You Apply Your Gifts Aligned With Your Purpose TODAY What Are Your Unique Abilities? What Interests You? What Drives You? WHAT HOW WHY JOB SUPER POWER PURPOSE Job 1 Job 2 Industry 2 Job 3 HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: Start With Why: Human
- 17. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: Agile Learning Mindset Agency (Motivation, Self Awareness, Personality Types) Learning Agility (Learning + Unlearning, Learning Styles) Uniquely Human Skills (Empathy, Social Intelligence, Creativity, etc.) Adaptability (Navigate Ambiguity, Unstructured Problems)
- 18. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan Changing Hierarchy Education vs. Learning NEW LEARNING IMPERATIVEOLD MODEL: EDUCATION DOMAIN EXPERTISE FOUNDATION SKILLS LEARNING CONDITIONS PORTABLE SKILLS PURPOSE + LEARNING CONDITIONS DOMAIN EXPERTISE LEARN EXPLICIT FOCUS ON ADAPTING + APPLYING EXPAND , REPLACE + CONNECT THE POWER OF LEARNING AGILE LEARNING MINDSET + OFTEN MISSED FOCUS ON EASILY MEASURABLE FOCUS ON CAREER PREP (FIRST JOB)
- 19. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan Preparation Activity (Work) Goal- Target Byproduct LEARN LEARN TO LEARN Unit of ValueDO Unit of ValueLEARN DO Increased Capacity OLD ECONOMY NEW REALITY HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: New Paradigm = New Goals @heathermcgowan
- 20. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan RETIREWORKEDUCATE Lifespan = 73 Years RETIRE RECONDITION ENGAGE LEARN Lifespan = 90 Years OLD ECONOMY NEW ECONOMY HOW TO THINK DIFFERENTLY: New Economy Shifts Life Blocks @heathermcgowan
- 21. The Skillman Foundation www.heathermcgowan.com Copyright @heathermcgowan SUMMARY • 3 Accelerations Re-shaping Our World • The Future of Work is Learning • Start With Purpose • Build Agency Through Purpose (Super Power) • Focus on Learning Agility and Adaptability
Editor's Notes
- To understand what is happening, I borrow from my friend and teacher Tom Friedman who explains in his latest book, thank you for being late an optimists guide to thriving in the age of accelerations that we are in the midst of three interconnected accelerations. First we are going through an acceleration in technology evidenced by Moore’s Law. Soon anything mentally routine or predictable can be achieved by an algorithm. Second we are going through an acceleration in the market. We are moving from connected to interconnected to interdependent where our changes in a market on the other side of the globe has immediate impact here in the US. Third we are going through a acceleration in the change of the climate. Where we once to could address things like climate change and biodiversity loss later. Later is gone, anything we are going to save we have to save now. Collectively these three things are reshaping our world across 5 key dimensions: work and learning, geopolitics, community (how we form it and what it means), ethics, and collectively those four, Friedman believes, should force an entirely new political party forward– one based not on left and right but instead on modeling systems in nature by focusing on two things: resilience and propulsion. How do adapt to these accelerated changes and not only how do we bounce back but how do we bounce forward. I focus my work and this talk today on the Working and learning dimension
- To engage in this discussion it is important to understand the difference between linear and exponential change. Folks at Singularity University have come up with a simple way of explaining it in terms of steps. If you were to take 30 linear steps, at the end you would have gone 30 meters. If you were to take 30 exponential steps, where each step is double the prior step, at the end of 30 steps you would be 1 billion meters or 26x around the globe. It is important to note that the first few steps are close together but the accelerations continue to advance the steps become much further apart. We are starting to feel some of that distance now.
- Humans are adaptive. We evolve. We have to reset our median number for IQ because, according researched James Flynn, we see an increase in IQ of about 3 points every ten years as we, as a species, adapt to move complex environments. Humans also adapt to other changes in their environment. That adaptation is linear at best. About 65 some odd years ago we started creating better tools. They are just tools no matter how smart they become. Tools need humans. Humans have become reliant on tools. There increase in capabilities of these tools requires that we rethink what humans do and what tools do.
- We are entering our next industrial revolution.. What is notable is two things 1) each industrial revolution builds upon the technological progress of the prior revolution and therefore each one scales faster than the one prior. 2) let’s look at the progress from the 3rd to the 4th industrial revolution. The 4th is based upon the internet infrastructure built in the 3rd industrial revolution and requires the digitization of the economy. Right now we have only digitized less than 20% of our economy according to McKinsey Global Institute. The notable thing here is as we move from the 3rd to the 4th we need talent that shifts from set disciplinary expertise to learning agility, adaptability, and transdisciplinarity with an emphasis on uniquely human skills. This is the moment we stop competing with machines as Robert just mentioned and we start focusing on human-machine partnerships where humans focus on uniquely human skills.
- As we move into the 4th Industrial Revolution it is interesting to look at the corresponding human eras Each era is dramatically shorter than the prior, collapsing by a factor of ten and each has a different value for talent and a different relationship with tools
- This is how the old paradigm worked- life existed in three discrete band: education, career retire. One was educated by some means to fill a role that became their identity. Think about it, what is the first question we ask each other “So what do you do?” and it starts at a young age. We ask children as young as five years old “What do you want to be when you grow up? “ This is an increasingly absurd question when most jobs they will have do not exist yet. Whatever that education was put them on a career ladder or escalator until they reached the magical age of 65, retired, collected a pension and died two year s later– by design. It kept the retirement costs down when you only have to pay them for 18-24 months.
- That model is gone yet many of our mental models, references, and practices are based upon it. Life expectancy is further out at 90+. It is not yet but it will be. We are experiencing some life span shortening due to lifestyle factors but I believe they are temporary in the overall longevity trend. The education, career, retire bands become overlapping areas of learn, leverage, and longevity. Learn and leverage become constant cycles and success measures shift away from hiring for demonstrated skills and past experience to measuring learning agility and adaptability to navigate the longer more volatile learning tours of duty that will require adding and deleting skills.
- While I do believe the future of work is learning. I do not think it is as simple as learn, learn, learn. One of the most important parts of this transition we will go through is the process of unlearning--- the process of letting go of our old mental models and methods to adapt and relearn new ones.
- We ask children what they want to be when they grow up and that is becoming an increasingly absurd question when the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that 65% of those jobs (routed in a digitized economy not yet here) have not even been invented yet. Further, researchers Frey and Osborne reported in their famed Oxford study that 47% of our current work could be achieved by todays available technologies. This is not just physical labor or low skilled cognitive labor this is financial advising, legal research, etc. We still ask students to declare an undergraduate major early, many times before they even begin university study. The Federal Reserve Bank of NYC study found that only 27% of graduates work in the field of their undergraduate major. Deloitte suggests that soon 50% of the content of that undergraduate degree may be obsolete within 5 years. We know the debt lasts longer so why are we so myopically focused on skills transfer for jobs that may not be there? And Finally we ask each other what do you do for a living. These questions all calcify the mindset around an application of skills and knowledge at a moment in time. That moment is moving faster as the generation entering today may have 17 jobs across 5 different industries. We need to think of new ways of defining ourselves and focusing our studies.
- About a decade ago in Puget Sound, a then not so well known guy named Simon Sinek gave a TEDX talk to a relatively small audience where he shared his theory about how great leaders communicate and and inspire. That TED talk has now been viewed 35 million times and it is one of the most watched TED Talks of all time. It presented a very simple concept which we think is even more relevant, although for different reasons, a decade later. The theory is simple, Sinek says every company can tell you what they do or sell (products or services) which they can generally describe. Good companies can tell you something about their process or what makes them unique or special but only really great companies and leaders can tell you why---their purpose– why they exist. He proposes that those who start with why rather than what create a more enduring, deeper connection. Why does this matter?
- It matters because as companies and/or their business models launch, scale, and die in faster cycles– they are best served to navigate these evolutions if they define themselves by their culture– their driving principle and purpose first. Take Apple, it is a simple example. Apple starts with why. Their purpose is their north star leading through all that they do. In everything we do, we challenge the status quo, we think differently. We challenge that status quo by making technology that is easy to use– or the how. And now the What– we just happen to make computers and electronics. This framing allows apple to span across industries even dropping the word computer from their name a decade or so back. Would you buy a watch from Dell or a phone from HP– no right? Because they have focused on their what– they have defined themselves in that tight box of computers. Similarly you can look at Amazon vs. Barnes and Noble. Can you imagine Barnes and Noble winning academy awards or launching a home automation hub like Alexa right? It was not long ago that Amazon and Barnes and Noble were both book sellers. Why does this matter and what does it have to do with the academy? I am going to hand it back to Robert to thread that needle.
- I believe we need to take this very same approach with humans. Start with why. Start with purpose. Purpose is what will keep the lifelong learning candle lit. Marina Gorbis from the institute for the future of work says that as we close the digital divide we will have to address the motivational divide. I believe the best way to address it is to start with purpose first. From there help people understand how they work and learn best. What are their superpowers or unique abilities. After the why and the how is in place individuals can navigate through many whats with the resilience and propulsion they will need to traverse their career web of many jobs and several industries.
- I use the term “Agile Learning Mindset” to cover the new operating system of the future– I think that you may be best served to look for future employees that first have these four things– learning agility– an understanding of how they learn, the ability to learn and unlearn, a focus on and understanding of their uniquely human skills notably empathy, social intelligence, creativity– the stuff that is difficult to replace with automation, adaptability– the ability to navigate ambiguity and change, and agency– the motivation and self awareness to take ownership of their future as they no longer sit passively on the career escalator but rather traverse the complex and emerging career web.
- The conditions of learning were often missed as long as you could suffer through as learning was an early phase of life– one and done. Now the conditions of learning become more important as learning is irrefutably life long. Foundational skills become portable skills, domain expertise is not longer the top but rather a middle band of tools– think of like a swiss army knife– swap out and add to frequently and the tip becomes learning agility– the ability to learn and adapt, applying your portable skills and expertise to emerging challenges.
- So to summarize this theory in very simple terms. Old Model: You learned in order to do (something) from which you created a unit of value. New Model: You Learn + Do in a cycle in order to build capability, the unit of value created is no longer the goal/output but rather a by-product. Simple examples of this increased capability are looking at companies like Amazon and Tesla that are always trying to learn. Everything they sell is a vehicle for further learning. If the most successful entities are thinking this way, so too should the individuals. The future of work is learning and talent is the engine of that future.
- So to cap off this section with a very simple visual– our lives long existed in simple blocks: learn, work, retire. We moved through those blocks in a pretty smooth arc across our 70 something life span. Now those blocks are turned 90 degrees and we move through them differently. Retirement as we have known it will be gone for most and work will look differently. The learning block is now lifelong and we will move in an out of work, learning, and re-tooling periods.
- I call my think tank work to learn because I believe we are coming out of an era in which we learned to do one thing in order to work doing that thing for set career arc. We now must reverse that by working in order to learn continuously for a much longer web of interconnected experiences.