The Future of Work version 1.0 6 18-19
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Dean Whittaker, President and CEO of Whittaker Associates, Inc., presented on trends shaping the future of work. He discussed that there are two types of trends - hard trends like demographics and technology that are certain, and soft trends like behavior that are probable. Trends are driven by resources, technology, demographics, and governance. Whittaker analyzed trends using the STEEP framework looking at social, technological, economic, environmental, and political factors in the short term (1-3 years), medium term (3-5 years), and long term (5+ years) to outline possible, probable, and preferred futures of work. He emphasized the need to anticipate exponential technological change and its impact on how
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The Future of Work version 1.0 6 18-19
- 1. Wednesday, June 19, 2019 Presented by Dean Whittaker, President/CEO, Whittaker Associates, Inc.
- 2. OUR SPEAKER Dean Whittaker President/CEO Whittaker Associates, Inc. • Economic development futurist • 30 years’ experience in economic development at t he city, county, and state levels • Certified in Innovation Methodology from the New North Center for Design in Business
- 5. AGENDA Why – Becoming Future Smart How – STEEP Process What – Trends Shaping the Future of Work
- 6. CHANGE Adapt Linear Rearview mirror Where we’ve been Dinosaur approach Victim of change Anticipate Exponential rate of change Trend-focused Skate where the puck is going Becoming future smart Choosing a future
- 7. TRENDS IMPACTING THE FUTURE OF WORK Old Analog Real Left Brain Knowledge Driven Job Focus New Digital Virtual Left/Right Brain Data Driven Gig Focus
- 8. HOW & WHERE WE WORK Old Competition Wisdom of a Few IQ Local Individual/Independent New Collaboration Knowledge of Many (Crowd) EQ Global Networked/Connected
- 9. WORK
- 10. Time Event LINEAR THINKING IN A CYCLICAL WORLD
- 11. TWO KINDS OF CHANGE (TRENDS) Cyclical – repeating Linear – non-repeating
- 12. TWO KINDS OF TRENDS Hard Trends – See the Future • Certain • Demographics • Acceleration of technology • Measurable • Fact-based Soft Trends – Shape the Future • Probable • Based on behavior • Statistical • Might happen • Future maybe
- 13. FOUR FORCES DRIVING TRENDS
- 15. TECHNOLOGY EXPONENTIAL RATE OF CHANGE Source: Khan Academy
- 16. DEMOGRAPHICS United States - 2014 Germany - 2014
- 17. DEMOGRAPHICS Canada 2014 India 2014
- 18. DEMOGRAPHICS Japan 2014 Japan 2030
- 19. GOVERNANCE How we relate to each other Rules by which we share resources Share vision & leadership
- 20. STEEP TREND ANALYSIS 1-3 years | 3-5 years | 5+years Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
- 21. SOCIAL • Aging population • Increasing health concerns • Increasing fear of technology • Decreasing trust in our institutions • Increasing concern for climate change
- 22. TECHNOLOGICAL MOORE’S LAW The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future.
- 23. TECHNOLOGICAL Health Tech - Genetics AI/Robotics Internet of Things (IoT) Data Analytics FinTech
- 24. TECHNOLOGICAL Cyber war becomes a growing concern Militarization of Cyberspace
- 25. ECONOMIC Work moves to the people More complex requiring high skill level Fewer workers, same output 30% of work done in home office
- 26. ECONOMIC - THE GAP Source: The Second Machine Age Source: The Second Machine Age
- 27. WORKING FOR A NON-HUMAN? Dr. Watson I presume? AI – now and in the future Robot caregivers Robot networks
- 28. FINANCE Bank alternatives grow - Paypal, micro-loans, etc. U.S. devalues its currency by 20%, China bails out Europe Banks, re-capitalized, can now afford to foreclose on non-performing loans Investment banks continue to block crowd funding of start-ups
- 29. TALENT Talent drives location Live first, work second Zero-sum talent pool Enormous demand for talent Business demands education reinvention
- 30. ENVIRONMENTAL Climate change Extreme weather increases Natural gas replaces coal Water becomes a global issue
- 31. POLITICAL U.S. become an “Accidental Super Power” Federal and State Gov. become dysfunctional Government becomes more transparent Political Revolt Underway
- 32. THE FUTURE The Probable Future of Work Time Frame Social Technological Economic Environmental Political 0-3 years Boomers working past retirement; Millenials start buying houses Humans begin working with an AI assistant. Mfg automation accelerates. Inequality continues with more wealth concentrated in the hands of a few. Extreme weather events triggered by climate change increase Countries become increasingly nationalistic; conflicts escalate Increase in healthcare concern; Call centers replaced by Chat Bots Unskilled worker unemployment increases. Diaster recovery becomes an industry China assumes global leadership role Social media brought under scrunity; regulations imposed on personal data AI impacts legal, accounting, and other managerial functions. Electric vehicle 30% market share Major shift in mfg. process of components. Air quality degrades in major cities US Global influence declines Hate crimes increase; social unrest grows. Accelerating rate of change driven by technology in everything. Skill/talent shortage grows Preparation for extreme weather events increase in coastal location; companies develop backup capability. Cyberwar underway and escalates Increasing distrust of institutions. Sensors connect computers to their envirnoment including taste and smell. Work shift from physical to cognitive; Analog to Digital. Water quality and availablity grow in importance. Increasing disfunctional US national government; city/state takes over 3-5 years Munlti-generational workplace impacts corporate culture Humans and AI work collaboratively; Automation accelerates Larger number of workers made redundant. Mass layoff begins. Falling water table becomes a concern. Climate agreement reached with CO2 targets set and enforced. Leadership gender balanced Self-driving vehicle 50% of market Emotional Intelligence becomes key to employee engagment. Water quality and availablity grow in importance. Tranparentcy and accountablity demanded. Social entrepreneurship increases to attract talent AI impacts legal, accounting, and other managerial functions increases EV 50% of market for transportation upending parts manufactures. Water use restrictions put in place permanently. New political party formers - Green movement. Aging population puts strains on healthcare system Info tech and bioscience converge Employee company ownership emerges as a trends. Safe rooms in homes become the norm. Food & Energy issues become global problem for China Collaborative learning centers emerge. Continuous learning becomes the norm. Major diseases are overcome. China behavior control implemented globally. Corporate social purpose desired by Millenials. Algorithms collaborate to maximize impact. Apprenticeships become major workforce development tool Movement to protect workers rather than jobs. Beyond 5 years New human/machine species emerge Mental and Physical bio-hacking common Large underclass develops; Relocation from high risk coastal areas begins. Self-govening systems replace republics. Universal basic income implemented; subsidized transportation; healthcare; educations Reality is augmented and virtual. The nature of work gets redefined. The human species split - bioenhanced and non-bioenhanced. AI permission needed for human to work. Population decline globally especially in developed countries. The Preferred Future of Work Time Frame Social Technological Economic Environmental Political 0-3 years (2019- 2021) Multii-generational workplace create synergy Human Augmented through AI Rurual/Urban collaborate to solve relevance/food issues International Collaboration Formed to work on climate change. Focus shifted to common goals and away from divisive issues Legalization of Marijuna; decrimilization Automation of everything - simple stuff Recession - intterest rates drop Urban Farming Disalusion two party system - younger congress; higher particiaption rate 3-5 years (2021- 2028) Single Households - later marriage if at all; fewer children Interest rate skyrocket as Boomers retire Concerted global effort gets underway to reduced CO2 emissions. Imigration accepted Medical advances - extended life Imigration of skilled workers increases Moving away from coast in high income countries Participatoin increases - local; regional; national; International. Augmented humans becomes an option Mobilty becomes electric Mfg become automated - major worker upskill re-training underway. Preparation for extreme weather become the norm with diaster recovery becoming an industry. China becomes less free; Hong Kong move under mainland control. Beyond 5 years (2028 - ) Develop the forum for mutually common goods initiatives. Advances in medicine prolong life Guaranteed minimum income becomes the norm Progress is made of climate restoration Collaborative form of government replace bipartisanship
- 33. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR OPPORTUNITY
- 36. WRAPPING UP Three Futures – Possible, Probable, and Preferred Two Kinds of Trends – Hard and Soft Four Drivers of Change – Resources, Technology, Demographics and Governance STEEP Framework –Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political
- 37. THANK YOU! Dean Whittaker Whittaker Associates, Inc. 1121 Ottawa Beach Road, Suite 240 Holland, MI 49424 616-786-2500 www.whittakerassociates.com dean@whittakerassociates.com
Editor's Notes
- This presentation is dedicated to Rich Funderburk, a mentor, friend and Department of Commerce and Community Affairs 1979 to 1997, recipient of the Distiguished Economic Developer of the Year by the Illinois Development Council in 1984. His memorial service is begin held in Springfield today. We all owe Rich a debt of gratitude.
- Welcome! Thank you for joining us today for our discussion about the trends shaping the future of work. My intention is that you will be smarter about the future of work at the end of our time together today. I hope you will take away a few tools that you can use as you start looking for trends shaping your future economy. Lastly, I would like for you to become aware of the opportunities that these trends present.
- I thought we would take a brief look at Why it pays to become smart about the future. Then we will explore a few tools to help you to do so and then lastly to discuss some of the specific trends shaping the future. As Jami mentioned, please enter your questions in the Question box and we will either address them on the fly or during the Q&A.
- One of the reason that it is important to think about the future is because it will be here before you know it. In fact, much sooner than you expect. In the past we could adapt to changes that occurred from one generation to the next. Now, we no longer have time to do so. If we are going to avoid becoming extinct, we must anticipate the coming changes and prepare for them before they arrive. Change is accelerating driven by technology and demographics – more on that in a moment.
- One of the reason that it is important to think about the future is because it will be here before you know it. In fact, much sooner than you expect. In the past we could adapt to changes that occurred from one generation to the next. Now, we no longer have time to do so. If we are going to avoid becoming extinct, we must anticipate the coming changes and prepare for them before they arrive. Change is accelerating driven by technology and demographics – more on that in a moment.
- One of the reason that it is important to think about the future is because it will be here before you know it. In fact, much sooner than you expect. In the past we could adapt to changes that occurred from one generation to the next. Now, we no longer have time to do so. If we are going to avoid becoming extinct, we must anticipate the coming changes and prepare for them before they arrive. Change is accelerating driven by technology and demographics – more on that in a moment.
- Another observation along the way is that as a species, us humans tend to think in a linear fashion in a cyclical world. As a result we become inefficient in our allocation of resources and our risk taking. We either over estimate or under estimate…in our predictions. Some examples: The stock market…bear or bull doesn’t last forever but think and act like it does. The economic recession (or depression) doesn’t last forever, it just feels like it is going to and, again, we act accordingly. What examples do you see?
- There are two kinds of trends: Cyclical and Linear Cyclical trends repeat themselves. Seasons of the year, day/night, the stock market are examples Linear trends continue in one direction. Aging is a good example of a linear trends.
- The cool thing about trends is that there are two kinds. Hard Trends that enable us to clearly see the future and soft trends that let us shape it by the decisions we make in the present. The tricky part is determining if the trends is hard (certain) or soft (subject to change). One way to tell is to ask is it based on facts or emotion. Factual change is likely to be a hard trends. While trends subject to emotion are what might happen.
- Trends are driven by four forces. Resources – natural and man-made. Examples are water, food, shelter and people. All wars have been fought over resources. Technology – The tools we use to manipulate our environment and resources Demographic – We form tribes to collaborate to accomplish things we can not on our own. Governance – What are the rules of our society and how we allocated the resources among people.
- When it comes to resources, we are blessed in North American with one of rich supply of fresh water and fertile land. Peter Zeihan, in his book “The Accidental Super Power talks about the combination of land, water and transportation that has given North American such a competitive advantage in the World.
- Technology is one of the key drives of change. The interesting thing about it builds on itself and therefore grows at an exponential rate. We tend to over estimate technology early (think flying cars) and significantly underestimate its impact long term. We will talk more about technology is a moment.
- Demographics provides us with an interesting insight into to the future. Peter Zehihan, also tells us in his book, “The Accidental Superpower” that many nations will struggle with aging of their population and having enough workers coming into their economy to support it and the growth of those no longer productive. In the US there are 385 Baby Boomers retiring per hour according to Daniel Burris, in his book “Flash Foresight.”
- As you can see from the graph, Canada will be facing the same problem as many other nations. One might wonder about India and Africa. There challenge going forward to infrastructure particularly transportation. This is why we see China building rail road in Africa to provide than access to its resources. China is also building a Navy base on the coast of Africa to protect the oil tankers brining them oil from the Mideast.
- Governance is how we allocated resources. It is how we agree to related to each other in our society and it is also a shared belief system that enables us to collaborate to accomplish those things that we can not do on our own. For example, go to the moon. In the book, “Saipens: A Brief History of Humankind” Yuval Noah Harari the evolution of our ability to collaborate through a shared vision and belief system.
- Here’s a frame work for thinking about trends that may help you monitor them in your life. Take a moment to jot down a few trends you see in each of the categories and time frames. Most of us struggle when thinking beyond five years. We are not use to thinking in this time frame. Picture yourself in the year 2032. Based on the trends you see, what will your life be like.
- Next, we will explore the five STEEP trends. Here are few… remember to look for the opportunity these trends present. What are the implication to you and your organization?
- Moore’s Law has been in effect since 1965 and is predicted to continue through 2020 with the power doubling every 18-24 months and the cost drop by half. Technology will continue to advance at an accelerating speed due to exponential nature. Hang on to your hat. It is just starting to get interesting.
- Perhaps the crux of the opportunity lies in those industry that are changing at an exponential rate. Genetics – We are seeing daily advances in cancer treatment through genetic manipulation. Robotics – Beginning with self driving car (and trucks), assisted-living robots, and chatbots (AI assistants) Will robots take our jobs…probably but not right away. I of T – Everything is connect and creating data – Nest Thermostat Big Data – Data is the new raw material and data science is the new factory of ideas Connected – Being connected to 7 billion customers is critical to the future of business and your community. How is your infrastructure? Broadband speed is critical.
- I put cyber security on a separate slide being it is becoming such an pressing issue. None of us are prepared for what is happening and yet to come. A cyberwar would last 15 mintues according to the book “Cyberwar” by Richard A. Clark. Again, look for the opportunity – cyber security industry is one of the fastest growing sectors
- We all have experienced work moving to the people but it hasn’t always been that way. Advance in communication technology enable us to access talent and resources around the globe. More of us work part of our time from home. This trend will continue as the technology advances for Virtual Realty teams are connected to a virtual company doing virtual work getting paid real money.
- One of the economic trends that has been underway since 1975 is the split between productivity and wages. The majority of the reward from the increase in productivity have gone to capital with wages being stagnant. Much of this has been brought about by automation and a greatly expanded labor supply through NAFTA.
- Speaking of automation. We are just beginning to see the impact of a new life form…artificial intelligence. Yesterday, I met Amy, my friends AI assist whom he has asked to schedule our next meeting. She proposed dates based on his calendar, I countered with mine and we found a common time to meet. She then sent out a meeting invitation for my calendar.
- Fintech as it is called is just taking off. With the use of block chain, an encryption technology beneath Bit coin (a non-sovern currency), peer-to-peer financial transaction are being enable.
- Talent is in the drivers seat and the power has shifted. We’ve seen the demographics. However, with the rapid change demands continuous learning. Are your educational institutions ready?
- Whew! Climate change is upon us. What are some of the opportunities it presents? How about protecting our cities to minimize damage…put utilities underground (maybe), Gear up emergency response system, develop disaster recovery plans (before they are needed). There is lots we can do… stash emergency supplies close to where natural disasters are likely to occur.
- Here’s a rough matrix I created from trends that I see happening. Since it is very easy to predict a dystopian future… I also created a preferred one. One of the risks of this process it is very easy because of the media’s negative slant on events. Try to get outside of your information bubble to get a bigger view…CNBC vs Foxnews…Aljazir, the Economist, the Guardian. What is the source of your “information?”
- As you contemplate the trends that are shaping our future economy, look for the opportunities and most importantly, take action to seize these opportunities.
- Here are a few book recommendations: “Think Like a Futurist” by Cecily Sommers “Flash Foresight” by Daniel Burris; and The Industries of the Future” by Alec Ross.
- Abundance is the antidote to fear of technology…the authors also wrote “Bold” as a follow on. They envison a world of abundance brought about by technology.
- Wrapping up… We’ve talked about the three futures – possible, probable and preferred. We learned there are two kinds of trends, hard (facts) and soft (behavior). We heard about the four drives of change behind the trends we see. And, we look a tool for finding the trends in our life.
- Thank you for participating in todays discussion. I would be glad to discuss any questions you might have in the time remaining.