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  1. 1. Foresight & Innovation INNOPROM
2011
 Adam
Gordon,
M.S.,
MBA
 adam.gordon@futuresavvy.net
 Tamara
Carleton,
PhD
 Bill
Cockayne,
PhD
 Stanford
University

  2. 2. Introductiono  Stanford Foresight & Innovation Groupo  Strategic Foresight, Houstono  INSEADo  Future Savvy: Quality in Foresighto  Forbes: “Management By Looking Ahead”o  South Africa – Innovation – Emerging Markets BRICSA 2
  3. 3. Paul Saffo on academics vs. futurists… 3
  4. 4. Foresight & Innovation at Stanford: Benefits of the Approacho  Acknowledge change, threats, opportunities of the future. Engage and stimulate thinking about the future.o  Connects long-term perspectives with innovation actions today. Overcome the gap between big idea and on-the-ground executiono  Built to work in the style of today’s collaborative, team-based approach to projects in the workplace 4
  5. 5. Seeing Future Opportunities (Threats)
  6. 6. Getting Ahead of Change That look of surprise
  7. 7. Avoiding Surprises
  8. 8. Renewing Success (Innovation)
  9. 9. Foresight Tools Focused on Action© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 9
  10. 10. Three Phases to Build Foresight Perspective Opportunity Solution© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 10
  11. 11. Phase I: Perspective Perspective Opportunity SolutionDevelop a broad and historical perspective about an area of interestrelevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first inorder to look forward.o  What is the bigger context for the sector/industry you are interested in?o  What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be identified as drivers of todays reality?o  When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in timing and adoption exist today?© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 11
  12. 12. Phase II: Opportunity Perspective Opportunity SolutionDevelop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today andextend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrowsinnovations.o  What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the future?o  Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?o  What might you expect from future users and customers?© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 12
  13. 13. Phase III: Solution Perspective Opportunity SolutionDefine the questions that exist along different paths to innovation.Prototype new solutions are specific to your industry, customers,organization, and individual skills.o  How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrows future innovation?o  Looking at what youve learned, how long does each step take along the various paths?o  What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 13
  14. 14. Phase I: Perspective
  15. 15. Perspective Opportunity Solution The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward. Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones Context Mapping is a mapping Progression Curves are a Janus Cones is a foresight tool technique for capturing emergent graphical representation that for looking backwards and conversation themes in complex explains the progression of forwards in time to identify the problems to show integrated changes in terms of timing of historical events and context. technological, social, and related how timing affects potential filters. future events.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 15
  16. 16. © 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 16
  17. 17. Progression CurvesProgression Curves explain the progression of changes in terms oftechnological, social, and related filters.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 17
  18. 18. Common Technology & Social Curves© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 18
  19. 19. Janus ConesJanus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards intime to identify the timing of historical events and how these timingsaffect potential future events.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 19
  20. 20. 1946:Stanford The Development of Silicon ValleyResearchInstitute 1958: [Sputnik] was a(SRI) wakeup call, and Americafounded answered it. – John Kao 2009: During a recession, in Innovation Nation, 2008 Silicon Valley doesn t curl up 1952: IBM into a fetal position and pout. opened its San 1968: Jose R&D office It continues to take chances, Engelbart 1972: Kleiner throwing sparks at kindling, 1951: Stanford demo Perkins 1992: Apple knowing that something will Caufield & 1984: closes Fremont Industrial Park 1964: UC catch fire. It s the U.S. Byers NUMMI plant plant established (Varian Berkeley starts economy s secret weapon. " founded opened 1992: TiE (The Associates, GE, its study abroad – Portfolio, 2/09 and Kodak sign Indus Entrepre- 2000: SFO program 1987: neurs) founded opened new first leases) 1978: Silicon Valley SEMANTECH 1958: Stanford 1990: San Jose international 1957: Manufacturing founded starts its study airport expanded terminal 2008: 1/3 of Stanford Stanford Group founded abroad program Terminal A MBA 1982: Silicon MBA students (and students 1958: 1976: Valley Bank 1994: cases) are international start the NASA Apple founded Netscape, 2001: Accel 2005: Sequoia Intern l set ups founded Yahoo! 1968: Partners Capital Business research founded Intel launched first launched first Club facility founded EU fund China fund1939: 1958:HP Fairchildfounded founded 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Today © 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 20
  21. 21. © 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 21
  22. 22. Development of Key Industries in S.Valley© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 22
  23. 23. Phase II: Opportunity
  24. 24. Perspective Opportunity Solution The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today s opportunities become tomorrow s innovations. Demographics Future Users Futuretelling Demographics is a research method Future Users explores the potential Futuretelling are short and to identify and track population future of a chosen demographic dramatic performances that changes within a specific group over through the comparative analysis illustrate a particular user need time in order to understand between similar groups over time. as a scene from the future. impending changes on the This is active storytelling at its workforce, life stages, future best. markets, and other variables.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 24
  25. 25. Demographics in 20 Years (2028) Demographics is aU.S.
 research method to identify and track population growth within a specific group over time in order toChina
 understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.India
© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 25
  26. 26. Future UsersFuture Users explores the potential future of a customer demographicthrough the comparison of changes to similar groups over time. Past Today Tomorrow© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 26
  27. 27. Jimmie
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© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 27
  28. 28. Describing a future user based on a real person today A future persona describes a sample user (or customer segment) you want to target, based on current real evidence of similar target today o  Demographics – age, household income, religion, etc. o  Interests – family details, hobbies, etc. o  Aspirations – career goals, personal dreams, etc. o  Beliefs – attitudes, values, etc. o  Behaviors – shopping habits, technology usage, etc. o  Other details – influencers, segment category, etc.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 28
  29. 29. Comparing Managers in India Nikhil Similarities age 34   Both married and have children   Purchased apartment after marriage   Commute using chauffeur-driven car   Domestic help takes care of sundry shopping, cleaning and cooking   Family owns a farmhouse   Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby malls Siddhartha Sid Differences age 34   Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to " top position in father s company   Nikhil lives separately, Sid lives with parents   Farmhouse is a novelty for Sid, " an ancestral land for Nikhil 1996 2008 2020© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 29
  30. 30. FuturetellingFuturetelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate aparticular population need or possible scene from the future.© 2010 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 30
  31. 31. Phase III: Solution
  32. 32. Perspective Opportunity Solution The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills. White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups White Spots are a strategic tool for Change Paths are a set of data- Paper mockups in three- studying the future opportunity space driven narratives exploring different dimensions (3D) are an defined by two salient issues. paths and key decision points advanced design method to Opportunities can be discovered in toward possible future innovations. prototype and communicate a the white spots , or empty areas. new concept using paper and inexpensive materials. A specific iteration is the Dark Horse Prototype.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 32
  33. 33. White SpotsWhite Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunityspace defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered inthe white spots , or empty areas.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 33
  34. 34. © 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 34
  35. 35. Change PathsChange Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring differentpaths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 35
  36. 36. Change Paths© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 36
  37. 37. The Change Path to White SpotsWith a future opportunity in mind, creating a set of data-driven narratives helps to explore the Change Paths towardpossible solutions that are 2+ innovation cycles in thefuture.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 37
  38. 38. Paper MockupsPaper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method toprototype and communicate a new concept using paper andinexpensive materials.© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 38
  39. 39. © 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 39
  40. 40. Integration
  41. 41. Foresight Tools Focused on Action© 2011 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 41
  42. 42. Perspective Opportunity Solution Context Maps Janus Cones© 2011 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 42
  43. 43. Perspective Opportunity Solution Future Users Futuretelling Demographics© 2011 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 43
  44. 44. Perspective Opportunity Solution White Spots Change Paths 3D Mockups© 2011 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 44
  45. 45. Taking Action Towards Future Innovation Illustrative© 2011 | Cockayne & Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 45
  46. 46. Questions?
  47. 47. Stanford Foresight & Innovation Network Foresight and Innovation Bill Cockayne, Tamara Carleton http://foresight.stanford.edu 424 Panama Mall Stanford University Stanford, California 94305 Adam Gordon adam.gordon@futuresavvy.net +44 790 6054848

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