This document discusses forecasting increases in audience levels on YouTube. It explores the relationship between audience levels (measured by in-degree like subscriber counts) and user/content behavior. Features like post view counts and favorite counts are analyzed to discover patterns that can be used for forecasting whether a user's audience will grow given their behavior. A dataset was collected from YouTube and analyzed using linear regression models. Model selection was performed to determine the best predictors. The results showed user's audiences could be accurately predicted, and feature selection improved performance. The work aims to quantify online reputation and understand how to increase audiences.
Spenser Skates, Amplitude , @spenserskates
Most companies aren’t going deep enough with their user behavior data.
In this talk, Spenser Skates, CEO and Co-founder of Amplitude, will introduce a framework of the 3 levels of analytics. Many companies are only measuring vanity metrics and figuring out where their problems are, but aren’t finding new ways to grow.
By analyzing the actions that your users take, you’ll discover how you can improve your product to drive growth. As with Facebook’s famous ‘7 friends in 10 days’, learn how you can find the ‘magic moment’ to focus your product around.
Gary Shochat - PAU Education - Web Strategy and Communication Action Plan for...Web2LLP
First session of the Web2LLP pilot for the online training course on web strategies and maximising the social media presence of Lifelong Learning Projects.
Topic: Setting up a web strategy and communication action plan
Author: Gary Shochat
Website: http://web2llp.eu/training/pilot-online-session-1-web-strategy
Some Like it Mobile - The New Motion Picture: How Mobile Devices Are Revolut...Qualvu
Qualvu CEO & Founder John Williamson was a keynoter at the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) Digital Conference on Thursday, November 17. John’s subject was “The New Motion Picture: How Mobile Devices Are Revolutionizing Consumer Research.” He was joined by a panel of distinguished research pros including Edward Paul Johnson, Director of Analytics at ASE; Miles Wright, Director of Mobile Research at SSI; Lenny Murphy of Brandscan360.com; and Leslie Townsend of Kinesis Survey Technologies. Together, they delved into such questions as:
Is mobility research “client approved”? What do the clients think?
Are we turning into research voyeurs? Webcams everywhere 24 /7?
Does mobility break down the traditional qual quant barrier? Can we work together now?
Surveys are now shorter but are they more engaging?
Is mobility research world simply an app?
How do we analyse all the videos?
Does anyone care about validity and reliability anymore?
The mobile Landscape – Who is using what and when and why and where
What do case Studies reveal so far?
What innovative methods are being used? (QR codes, video capture, webcams)
How far can we go with mobile research? Where is the future?
Spenser Skates, Amplitude , @spenserskates
Most companies aren’t going deep enough with their user behavior data.
In this talk, Spenser Skates, CEO and Co-founder of Amplitude, will introduce a framework of the 3 levels of analytics. Many companies are only measuring vanity metrics and figuring out where their problems are, but aren’t finding new ways to grow.
By analyzing the actions that your users take, you’ll discover how you can improve your product to drive growth. As with Facebook’s famous ‘7 friends in 10 days’, learn how you can find the ‘magic moment’ to focus your product around.
Gary Shochat - PAU Education - Web Strategy and Communication Action Plan for...Web2LLP
First session of the Web2LLP pilot for the online training course on web strategies and maximising the social media presence of Lifelong Learning Projects.
Topic: Setting up a web strategy and communication action plan
Author: Gary Shochat
Website: http://web2llp.eu/training/pilot-online-session-1-web-strategy
Some Like it Mobile - The New Motion Picture: How Mobile Devices Are Revolut...Qualvu
Qualvu CEO & Founder John Williamson was a keynoter at the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) Digital Conference on Thursday, November 17. John’s subject was “The New Motion Picture: How Mobile Devices Are Revolutionizing Consumer Research.” He was joined by a panel of distinguished research pros including Edward Paul Johnson, Director of Analytics at ASE; Miles Wright, Director of Mobile Research at SSI; Lenny Murphy of Brandscan360.com; and Leslie Townsend of Kinesis Survey Technologies. Together, they delved into such questions as:
Is mobility research “client approved”? What do the clients think?
Are we turning into research voyeurs? Webcams everywhere 24 /7?
Does mobility break down the traditional qual quant barrier? Can we work together now?
Surveys are now shorter but are they more engaging?
Is mobility research world simply an app?
How do we analyse all the videos?
Does anyone care about validity and reliability anymore?
The mobile Landscape – Who is using what and when and why and where
What do case Studies reveal so far?
What innovative methods are being used? (QR codes, video capture, webcams)
How far can we go with mobile research? Where is the future?
Lorenzo Martellini - Improving Web Strategies and maximizing Social Media Pre...Web2LLP
On 5 March 2013, Lorenzo Martellini from Pixel in Italy gave this presentation about the Web2LLP Project, during the annual INTED Conference (http://iated.org/inted2013/) held in Valencia (Spain). In it, the state of the art as far as internet presence of LLP projects was presented, highlighting the reasons which led to the project’s development. The solutions proposed by the project team were also exposed, including the training material developed in the framework of the project and collected on project website http://www.web2llp.eu.
Behavioral Targeting and Audience Analysis for NetworksJordan Mitchell
The next giant step in ad optimization centers around people and their behavior. Others Online offers a drop-dead-simple behavioral profiling and targeting Web service that shows large online media companies what their audience cares about, allowing them to better understand, segment, target and monetize their audience.
This is a project for my Social Media Management course at the University of Florida. It is a social media strategy that I have come up with for Chili's in order to bring more positive exposure to the brand.
Para este reporte de diferentes verticales dentro de B2B, se utilizó el software TrackMaven para analizar 12 meses de contenidos de 316 empresas con foco en B2B a través de 5 canales principales: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn y Pinterest.
Instagram became very big in Asia especially in Thailand. So how about Vietnam? We ran the survey to more than 2000 people to find out if Facebook kingdom of Vietnam will become different
Lorenzo Martellini - Improving Web Strategies and maximizing Social Media Pre...Web2LLP
On 5 March 2013, Lorenzo Martellini from Pixel in Italy gave this presentation about the Web2LLP Project, during the annual INTED Conference (http://iated.org/inted2013/) held in Valencia (Spain). In it, the state of the art as far as internet presence of LLP projects was presented, highlighting the reasons which led to the project’s development. The solutions proposed by the project team were also exposed, including the training material developed in the framework of the project and collected on project website http://www.web2llp.eu.
Behavioral Targeting and Audience Analysis for NetworksJordan Mitchell
The next giant step in ad optimization centers around people and their behavior. Others Online offers a drop-dead-simple behavioral profiling and targeting Web service that shows large online media companies what their audience cares about, allowing them to better understand, segment, target and monetize their audience.
This is a project for my Social Media Management course at the University of Florida. It is a social media strategy that I have come up with for Chili's in order to bring more positive exposure to the brand.
Para este reporte de diferentes verticales dentro de B2B, se utilizó el software TrackMaven para analizar 12 meses de contenidos de 316 empresas con foco en B2B a través de 5 canales principales: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn y Pinterest.
Instagram became very big in Asia especially in Thailand. So how about Vietnam? We ran the survey to more than 2000 people to find out if Facebook kingdom of Vietnam will become different
Actionable Cohort Analysis: How to use behavior-based cohorting to maximize e...Amplitude
Most companies aren’t going deep enough with their user data.
Conversion funnels, retention, and segmenting by install cohort help you identify where your users are getting stuck or leaving, but aren’t very helpful in telling you what you should do instead.
In this session from Opticon 2015, Spenser Skates, CEO and Co-founder of Amplitude, discusses how you can use behavior-based cohorting to maximize user engagement and retention. By grouping your users based on what actions they take, you'll discover how you can improve your product to drive growth.
As with Facebook’s famous ‘7 friends in 10 days’, learn how you can find the ‘magic moment’ to focus your product around.
Watch the video here: https://amplitude.wistia.com/medias/hdpnipul1l
Anna Chiaretta Lavatelli, Trilce Navarrete, Elena Villaespesa, Emily Robbins
The Media Production and Branding SIG and the Data and Insights SIG have combined efforts to develop an online survey to gain an understanding of the scope of production and goals of production in museums today. In this talk we will present an analysis of the collected data from the survey to gain understanding of the state of video production in museums.
Session 1: Gary Shochat (PAU) The basics of setting up a web strategy and com...Web2LLP
First session of the Web2LLP online training course on web strategies and maximising the social media presence of Lifelong Learning Projects.
Topic: Setting up a web strategy and communication action plan
Author: Gary Shochat (PAU Education)
Website: http://web2llp.eu/training/online-session-1-web-strategy
Growth PM: How to Grow Your Product by LinkedIn Product LeaderProduct School
Main takeaways:
-Learn about growth product management of all aspects, from acquisition, to activation, retention, engagement and monetization.
-Learn successful product examples that you can apply to your product right away
build up awareness of different growth tactics and be able to continuously expand your growth knowledge by yourself
What Is Data-Driven Product Development by Aaptiv Senior PMProduct School
In this talk, we talked about how to implement a full cycle of collaborative, data-driven product development. Lisa explained how to use qualitative and quantitative research to make product decisions, and how to facilitate design and ideation workshops to encourage team problem solving. This talk went deep into real-world case studies from the digital fitness space.
How do we as PR and communications professionals demonstrate our worth?eohart
Matt Appleby, Chair of CIPR Cymru and PR Director at Golley Slater, Cardiff addressed delegates at Community Housing Cymru's PR network and spoke about demonstrating our worth during a recession.
Managing and measuring social media coventry combinedWeb2LLP
Web2LLP Workshop, Coventry, 8 November 2013
Managing and Measuring the reach and impact of your social media activities
Auhtors: Gary Shochat (PAU Education) and Tatiana Codreanu (web2learn)
What Is Product Excellence by Google Product ManagerProduct School
What is an excellent product and does everyone agree? How did Google cultivate Product Excellence culture for teams of 5-10 Googlers? How did they do this in the entire operation with 60K+ employees in 50 countries, 100+ products used by tens of billions of users; across different platforms?
Sara discussed how Google did this along with the framework she designed to measure product excellence.
The goal of a recommender system is to predict the degree to which a user will like or dislike a set of items, such as movies or TV shows.
Most recommender systems use a combination of different approaches, but broadly speaking there are three different methods that can be used: Content analysis, Social recommendations and Collaborative filtering.
E-BOOK How to Run Profitable YouTube Channels.pdfsarangjain18
Discover the secrets to success on YouTube with our course, 'How to Run Profitable YouTube Channels.' Learn essential strategies for content creation, audience engagement, SEO optimization, and monetization. Gain the skills to turn your passion into a profitable venture on the world's largest video platform.
From User Needs to Community Health: Mining User Behaviour to Analyse Online ...Matthew Rowe
Invited keynote talk at the 1st Workshop of Quality, Motivation and Coordination of Open Collaboration @ the International Conference on Social Informatics 2013
Attention Economics in Social Web SystemsMatthew Rowe
Slides from a Highwire Digital Futures Seminar that I gave at Lancaster University on 25th October 2012 covering Attention Economics in Social Web Systems
Using Behaviour Analysis to Detect Cultural Aspects in Social Web SystemsMatthew Rowe
Presented at:
-Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK. 2011
-Keynote presentation at Detecting and Exploiting Cultural Diversity on the Social Web Workshop, 20th Annual Conference on Information and Knowledge Management 2011
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Tobias Schneck
As AI technology is pushing into IT I was wondering myself, as an “infrastructure container kubernetes guy”, how get this fancy AI technology get managed from an infrastructure operational view? Is it possible to apply our lovely cloud native principals as well? What benefit’s both technologies could bring to each other?
Let me take this questions and provide you a short journey through existing deployment models and use cases for AI software. On practical examples, we discuss what cloud/on-premise strategy we may need for applying it to our own infrastructure to get it to work from an enterprise perspective. I want to give an overview about infrastructure requirements and technologies, what could be beneficial or limiting your AI use cases in an enterprise environment. An interactive Demo will give you some insides, what approaches I got already working for real.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Let's dive deeper into the world of ODC! Ricardo Alves (OutSystems) will join us to tell all about the new Data Fabric. After that, Sezen de Bruijn (OutSystems) will get into the details on how to best design a sturdy architecture within ODC.
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewPrayukth K V
The IoT and OT threat landscape report has been prepared by the Threat Research Team at Sectrio using data from Sectrio, cyber threat intelligence farming facilities spread across over 85 cities around the world. In addition, Sectrio also runs AI-based advanced threat and payload engagement facilities that serve as sinks to attract and engage sophisticated threat actors, and newer malware including new variants and latent threats that are at an earlier stage of development.
The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
JMeter webinar - integration with InfluxDB and GrafanaRTTS
Watch this recorded webinar about real-time monitoring of application performance. See how to integrate Apache JMeter, the open-source leader in performance testing, with InfluxDB, the open-source time-series database, and Grafana, the open-source analytics and visualization application.
In this webinar, we will review the benefits of leveraging InfluxDB and Grafana when executing load tests and demonstrate how these tools are used to visualize performance metrics.
Length: 30 minutes
Session Overview
-------------------------------------------
During this webinar, we will cover the following topics while demonstrating the integrations of JMeter, InfluxDB and Grafana:
- What out-of-the-box solutions are available for real-time monitoring JMeter tests?
- What are the benefits of integrating InfluxDB and Grafana into the load testing stack?
- Which features are provided by Grafana?
- Demonstration of InfluxDB and Grafana using a practice web application
To view the webinar recording, go to:
https://www.rttsweb.com/jmeter-integration-webinar
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
"Impact of front-end architecture on development cost", Viktor TurskyiFwdays
I have heard many times that architecture is not important for the front-end. Also, many times I have seen how developers implement features on the front-end just following the standard rules for a framework and think that this is enough to successfully launch the project, and then the project fails. How to prevent this and what approach to choose? I have launched dozens of complex projects and during the talk we will analyze which approaches have worked for me and which have not.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonDianaGray10
Here is something new! In our next Connector Corner webinar, we will demonstrate how you can use a single workflow to:
Create a campaign using Mailchimp with merge tags/fields
Send an interactive Slack channel message (using buttons)
Have the message received by managers and peers along with a test email for review
But there’s more:
In a second workflow supporting the same use case, you’ll see:
Your campaign sent to target colleagues for approval
If the “Approve” button is clicked, a Jira/Zendesk ticket is created for the marketing design team
But—if the “Reject” button is pushed, colleagues will be alerted via Slack message
Join us to learn more about this new, human-in-the-loop capability, brought to you by Integration Service connectors.
And...
Speakers:
Akshay Agnihotri, Product Manager
Charlie Greenberg, Host
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
From Daily Decisions to Bottom Line: Connecting Product Work to Revenue by VP...
Forecasting Audience Increase on Youtube
1. Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube Matthew Rowe Knowledge Media Institute, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
2. Reputation on the Social Web Reputation is: “the beliefs or opinions that are generally held about someone or something” On the Social Web, reputation = greater influence Important to information flow Control information diffusion How to quantify reputation? Greater audience = greater reputation Greater reputation = greater influence How to measure ‘reputation’? In-degree – i.e. number of ‘in links’ Audience levels, subscriber counts Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube 1
4. Why Forecast? Users want to expand their audience What can users do to increase their audience? What factors contribute to increases? Solution: explore the relation between Audience levels - i.e. in-degree, and; Behaviour – of user and content Discover patterns, then use patterns for forecasting Given my behaviour, will my audience grow? 3 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
5. Features User behaviour statistics In-degree – i.e. number of followers Out-degree – i.e. number follows User view count – number of posts viewed by the user Post count – number of posts uploaded by the user Content statistics Post view count – i.e. number of views Favourite count – i.e. number of likes of content 4 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
6. Schema Barrier Social Web platforms provide data using bespoke schemas i.e. communicating through different languages Data from platform A == data from platform B Schema from platform A != schema from platform B Models must function across platforms Enabling portable behaviour patterns How can we interpret data from different platforms? 5 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
7. Behaviour Ontology Solution: OU Behaviour Ontology Defines behaviour in a common format Extending the SIOC ontology Captures ‘impact’ Vital to capture time-stamped user statistics Two classes for impact User impact Models user features Post impact Models post statistics 6 www.purl.org/NET/oubo/0.23/ Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
8. Data Collection: YouTube Gathered a dataset from the video-sharing platform YouTube One aim of usage is to increase ‘channel’ popularity Gain more subscriptions For 10 days, at 4 hour intervals: Logged 100 most recently uploaded videos Stopping once 2k were logged Logged user + content stats for each video Randomly chose 10% for analysis Split dataset into 80/20 for training/testing 7 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
9. Forecasting Audience Increase How can we predict audience levels given observed features? 8 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
10. Forecasting Audience Increase How can we predict audience levels given observed features? 9 Error/residual vector Coefficient/weight Predictor/independent variable Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
11. Forecasting Audience Increase How can we predict audience levels given observed features? What features are good predictors? i.e. can we induce a better model than above? Perform model selection 10 Error/residual vector Coefficient/weight Predictor/independent variable Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
12. Model Selection I To perform model selection: Aim: maximise the coefficient of determination Procedure: average features within the training split in the same time period 11 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
13. Model Selection I To perform model selection: Aim: maximise the coefficient of determination Procedure: average features within the training split in the same time period First Model: all features 12 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
14. Model Selection I To perform model selection: Aim: maximise the coefficient of determination Procedure: average features within the training split in the same time period First Model: all features 13 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
15. Model Selection II How can we improve upon the previous model? Feature selection Exhaustive search of all possible feature combinations Optimize coefficient of determination 14 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
16. Model Selection II How can we improve upon the previous model? Feature selection Exhaustive search of all possible feature combinations Optimize coefficient of determination Shows improvements using certain models 15 Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube
17. Model Selection III Exhaustive feature selection drops user view count Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube 16
18. Model Selection III Exhaustive feature selection drops user view count Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube 17
19. Forecasting I Now have 2 models to forecast with: All features Best features Which model is best? Two experiments to test predictive power: One-step forecast Train model on previous k-steps, predict k+1 Final-step forecast Predict t=10, train on previous k-steps Predictions are user dependent Evaluation measure: Root Mean Square Error Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube 18
21. Conclusions and Future Work Quantified reputation by audience levels Content reception linked to increased levels: More content views = increased audience levels More favourites = increased audience levels Able to accurately predict audience levels Post feature selection improves performance Behaviour ontology captures required features Common conceptualisation of behaviour Future work: Extend analysis to a larger dataset Applying models to additional platforms Forecasting Audience Increase on YouTube 20