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Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
Climate Change and Farming Systems  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from…  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Different views of climate change and farming systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Nemani et al 2003 Science  (6 June 03) Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems
Ryan et al 2010
Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
 
Research on farming systems ,[object Object]
Passioura 1979 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural communities
 
Passioura 1979 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Five Questions at the farming systems level  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],CCRSPI  2008
1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region? ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
Lyndoch Nurioopta Eden Valley N
Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
 
April to October rainfall
April to October rainfall
April to October rainfall
 
Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline Temporal analogues  –  eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site
Ryan et al 2010
Five Questions at the farming systems level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Garnault: costs of climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Five Questions at the farming systems level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The challenge of  “additionality”  in adaptation.
Howden  et al  2010
Sep 2000
Sep 2002
Sep 2006
Five Questions at the farming systems level ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Garnaut 2010 ( Aust J Ag & Res Ec ) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Different views of climate change and farming systems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Weather – Season – Climate change ,[object Object]
 

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Climate change and Australian farming systems - Peter Hayman, SARDI