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FANRPAN Climate Change
      Initiatives

            Presented by Sepo Hachigonta at the
SACAU consultation workshop on climate change and agriculture,
        19 October 2011, Johannesburg, South Africa
Background to FANRPAN
•   Call by Ministers of Agriculture from East and Southern Africa in 1994

•   Created in 1997, registered in 2002 in Zimbabwe, relocated to RSA in 2005

•   Focus:
     § Improving policy research, analysis and formulation on key SADC
       priority themes
     § Developing human and institutional capacity for coordinated policy
       dialogue among all stakeholders
     § Improving policy decision making by enhancing the generation,
       exchange and use of policy-related information

•   Stakeholder categories:
    Farmers, Government, Parliamentarians, Researchers, Private sector,
    Media, Development Partners
•   National nodes in 16 east and southern African countries:
    Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Lesotho,
    Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa,
    Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Food, Agriculture and Policy Analysis
 Network (FANRPAN)
Aim
To promote appropriate agricultural and natural resources policies
  in order to reduce poverty, increase food security and enhance
  sustainable agricultural development in Africa
Vision
A food secure Africa free from hunger and poverty
Mission
To promote evidence based policy development in the Food,
  Agriculture and Natural Resources (FANR) sector
How?
  q   facilitating linkages and partnerships between government
      and civil society
  q   building the capacity for policy analysis and policy dialogue in
      Africa
  q   Create capacity to demand evidence for policy development
FANRPAN Structure
   A network of networks                                               Commercial Farmers


                                                                             Farmers
                                                       CSOs                          Commodity Associations
                              Malawi   Government                            Small-scale farmers associations
             Zimbabwe
                                       Namibia                     Private Sector

   Botswana                                                   Zambia

                                                                       Researchers
                                                 Mozambique
                        FANRPAN
Angola                  Regional                  Madagascar
                        Secretariat
                                                 Tanzania
Lesotho


                                               DRC
         Swaziland
                                        Mauritius
                        South Africa
Future change



 Southern Africa projected temperature change at the
 large scale                  Regional temperature:
                              - Historical observed (Black line)
                              - Historical simulated by 21 global
                                models (Red envelope)
                              - Projected ranges by 21 global
                                models
Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in
Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most
                 Vulnerable

                      In partnership with
     International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
                          and CGIAR
Objectives
n   Promote adaptation among vulnerable populations through developing
    comprehensive systems for assessing global changes and the changes of
    these impacts across disaggregated systems, groups, and factors
    influencing initial state of vulnerability.

n   Provide regional organisations, policy-makers and farmers in sub-Saharan
    Africa with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies.

n   Study countries:
    Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, South
    Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
Swaziland scenarios for 2050
   Maize Production               Population projections




                               Number of malnourished
                               children under 5
        GDP per capita
Some adaptation recommendations identified in the
                country chapters include:
n    Development of policies on climate change that would support increased
     investment in adaptation programmes highlighted in the NAPA reports;

n    Incorporation of climate change adaptation in long-term planning and
     developmental programmes including budgetary allocations to climate
     change adaptation strategies;

n    Smallholder irrigation development targeting the vulnerable communities

n    Capacity building in skills and tools for technical assessments, planning and
     policy development in the context of climate change

n    Awareness raising: A sufficient political awareness of climate change issues
     is required to gather the support for action, within government, NGOs,
     private sector and the public at large;

n    Developing and promote drought-tolerant crop varieties and hardy livestock.
Knowledge gaps in estimating regional climate change


 • The impact of regional changes in other drivers are not sufficiently
   understood e.g. land use change, aerosol emissions - what will be the
   impact of increases in biomass burning ?

 • Bridging the gap in historical and far future change – the next 20 years ?

 • Regional ocean temperatures are only crudely represented

 • The effect of topography as a modifier of change i.e. temperature
   changes at higher altitudes (will come with running models at a higher
   spatial resolution)

 • How do all the above interact with the greenhouse gas forced changes
   ? – do they act in concert (pushing the system into further change) or
   mitigate some of the change ?
Information should be presented within the context of uncertainty and projections from multiple
models – choices are informed by carefully evaluated risks !
Strengthening Evidence-Based Climate Change
             Adaptation Policies
          (SECCAP) for Agriculture

                       with support from


              Project inception meeting for Malawi
                          27 May 2011




                                                     policy@fanrpan.org
                                                       www.fanrpan.org
Focal Countries
Lesotho, Malawi and Swaziland
SECCAP Objectives


1. To generate solid scientific understanding on climate
   change downscaling;

2. To integrate downscaled climate scenarios with
   district-wide household vulnerability information;

3. To determine the socio-economic         feasibility   of
   recommended cropping options;

4. To develop appropriate policy recommendations, in
   particular the NAPA priorities in agriculture;

5. To transfer the knowledge generated to decision/policy
   makers and local communities;
Integrated Approach


                Cost Benefit Analysis
                                             Enhanced
Informed                                      Science
  Policy


                      Livelihoods
                       Analysis

   Crop Production                       Downscaled
       Models                           Climate Models
Future change




                Downscaling

                The challenge of
                bring confident
                large scale
                projections to
                scales of
                adaptation and
                policy
Expected outcomes

• Strengthened local scientific, expertise and local
  knowledge;


• Strengthened     partnership     and   networking    on
  adaptation research among different institutions;


• Use integrated approach to assesses adaptation
  investment    options    (combining     climate,   crop,
  productivity and livelihoods);


• Rank cropping adaptation options on the basis of
  feasibility (climate, cost benefit and policy);
Project partners




University of Cape Town         University of Malawi   National University of Lesotho




 University of Venda        University of Swaziland        International Food Policy
   (South Africa)                                              Research Institute
Building Climate Change Resilience in Africa's
     Agricultural Research Programmes

              The Rockefeller Foundation

           Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
Objectives

n   Improving food security throughout sub-Saharan Africa by promoting
    the integration of climate change adaptation into agriculture
    research and policy agendas, and making climate change science
    more comprehensible to policy-makers, scientists and the private
    sector.

n   To provide advocacy support on policy research initiative on climate
    change.
Outputs
n   Advisory Notes to governments based on dialogue proceedings

n   Ministerial/Parliamentarians’ responses

n   Policy Briefs on mainstreaming climate change knowledge into
    agriculture research programmes

n   A database of stakeholders keen on interface

n   A long-term research proposal on climate proofing agriculture
    research

n   Information and Knowledge Dissemination
Copyright
                        FANRPAN Regional Secretariat
141 Cresswell Road, Weavind Park 0184, Private Bag X2087 ,Pretoria, South Africa
               Tel: +27 (0) 12 804 2966 , Fax: +27 (0) 12 804 0600
           Email: policy@fanrpan.org        Website: www.fanrpan.org

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Fanrpan cc initiatives

  • 1. FANRPAN Climate Change Initiatives Presented by Sepo Hachigonta at the SACAU consultation workshop on climate change and agriculture, 19 October 2011, Johannesburg, South Africa
  • 2. Background to FANRPAN • Call by Ministers of Agriculture from East and Southern Africa in 1994 • Created in 1997, registered in 2002 in Zimbabwe, relocated to RSA in 2005 • Focus: § Improving policy research, analysis and formulation on key SADC priority themes § Developing human and institutional capacity for coordinated policy dialogue among all stakeholders § Improving policy decision making by enhancing the generation, exchange and use of policy-related information • Stakeholder categories: Farmers, Government, Parliamentarians, Researchers, Private sector, Media, Development Partners • National nodes in 16 east and southern African countries: Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
  • 3. Food, Agriculture and Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) Aim To promote appropriate agricultural and natural resources policies in order to reduce poverty, increase food security and enhance sustainable agricultural development in Africa Vision A food secure Africa free from hunger and poverty Mission To promote evidence based policy development in the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (FANR) sector How? q facilitating linkages and partnerships between government and civil society q building the capacity for policy analysis and policy dialogue in Africa q Create capacity to demand evidence for policy development
  • 4. FANRPAN Structure A network of networks Commercial Farmers Farmers CSOs Commodity Associations Malawi Government Small-scale farmers associations Zimbabwe Namibia Private Sector Botswana Zambia Researchers Mozambique FANRPAN Angola Regional Madagascar Secretariat Tanzania Lesotho DRC Swaziland Mauritius South Africa
  • 5. Future change Southern Africa projected temperature change at the large scale Regional temperature: - Historical observed (Black line) - Historical simulated by 21 global models (Red envelope) - Projected ranges by 21 global models
  • 6. Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable In partnership with International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and CGIAR
  • 7. Objectives n Promote adaptation among vulnerable populations through developing comprehensive systems for assessing global changes and the changes of these impacts across disaggregated systems, groups, and factors influencing initial state of vulnerability. n Provide regional organisations, policy-makers and farmers in sub-Saharan Africa with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. n Study countries: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
  • 8. Swaziland scenarios for 2050 Maize Production Population projections Number of malnourished children under 5 GDP per capita
  • 9. Some adaptation recommendations identified in the country chapters include: n Development of policies on climate change that would support increased investment in adaptation programmes highlighted in the NAPA reports; n Incorporation of climate change adaptation in long-term planning and developmental programmes including budgetary allocations to climate change adaptation strategies; n Smallholder irrigation development targeting the vulnerable communities n Capacity building in skills and tools for technical assessments, planning and policy development in the context of climate change n Awareness raising: A sufficient political awareness of climate change issues is required to gather the support for action, within government, NGOs, private sector and the public at large; n Developing and promote drought-tolerant crop varieties and hardy livestock.
  • 10. Knowledge gaps in estimating regional climate change • The impact of regional changes in other drivers are not sufficiently understood e.g. land use change, aerosol emissions - what will be the impact of increases in biomass burning ? • Bridging the gap in historical and far future change – the next 20 years ? • Regional ocean temperatures are only crudely represented • The effect of topography as a modifier of change i.e. temperature changes at higher altitudes (will come with running models at a higher spatial resolution) • How do all the above interact with the greenhouse gas forced changes ? – do they act in concert (pushing the system into further change) or mitigate some of the change ? Information should be presented within the context of uncertainty and projections from multiple models – choices are informed by carefully evaluated risks !
  • 11. Strengthening Evidence-Based Climate Change Adaptation Policies (SECCAP) for Agriculture with support from Project inception meeting for Malawi 27 May 2011 policy@fanrpan.org www.fanrpan.org
  • 13. SECCAP Objectives 1. To generate solid scientific understanding on climate change downscaling; 2. To integrate downscaled climate scenarios with district-wide household vulnerability information; 3. To determine the socio-economic feasibility of recommended cropping options; 4. To develop appropriate policy recommendations, in particular the NAPA priorities in agriculture; 5. To transfer the knowledge generated to decision/policy makers and local communities;
  • 14. Integrated Approach Cost Benefit Analysis Enhanced Informed Science Policy Livelihoods Analysis Crop Production Downscaled Models Climate Models
  • 15. Future change Downscaling The challenge of bring confident large scale projections to scales of adaptation and policy
  • 16. Expected outcomes • Strengthened local scientific, expertise and local knowledge; • Strengthened partnership and networking on adaptation research among different institutions; • Use integrated approach to assesses adaptation investment options (combining climate, crop, productivity and livelihoods); • Rank cropping adaptation options on the basis of feasibility (climate, cost benefit and policy);
  • 17. Project partners University of Cape Town University of Malawi National University of Lesotho University of Venda University of Swaziland International Food Policy (South Africa) Research Institute
  • 18. Building Climate Change Resilience in Africa's Agricultural Research Programmes The Rockefeller Foundation Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
  • 19. Objectives n Improving food security throughout sub-Saharan Africa by promoting the integration of climate change adaptation into agriculture research and policy agendas, and making climate change science more comprehensible to policy-makers, scientists and the private sector. n To provide advocacy support on policy research initiative on climate change.
  • 20. Outputs n Advisory Notes to governments based on dialogue proceedings n Ministerial/Parliamentarians’ responses n Policy Briefs on mainstreaming climate change knowledge into agriculture research programmes n A database of stakeholders keen on interface n A long-term research proposal on climate proofing agriculture research n Information and Knowledge Dissemination
  • 21. Copyright FANRPAN Regional Secretariat 141 Cresswell Road, Weavind Park 0184, Private Bag X2087 ,Pretoria, South Africa Tel: +27 (0) 12 804 2966 , Fax: +27 (0) 12 804 0600 Email: policy@fanrpan.org Website: www.fanrpan.org