Half of people in nine European countries believe UK will vote to leave the EU • Half think Brexit could lead to a ‘domino effect’ • Europeans more likely to think Brexit will harm the EU than the UK • On the eve of Europe Day, four in ten Europeans foresee a reduced EU by 2020 With the British referendum on European Union (EU) membership on 23 June rapidly approaching, a new poll from Ipsos reveals that half (49%) of Europeans in eight other EU countries believe that Britain will vote to leave the EU. The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.

1. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 1
Ipsos Brexit poll
May 2016

2. 2Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Contents
 Referendum on EU
 Impact of Brexit
 Future of Europe

3. 3Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Methodology
• These are the findings of the Brexit Survey. In total 11,030 interviews were conducted between March 25th – April 8th 2016 among
adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and adults aged 16-64 in all other countries.
• The survey was conducted in 14 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are
Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, and the
United States of America.
• The nine European Union countries represent approximately three-quarters of the EU’s population and 80% of its GDP.
• Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of
Belgium, Hungary, India, Poland, South Africa, and Sweden, where the sample was approximately 500+. The precision of Ipsos
online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of 500 accurate
to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos’ use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.
• In countries where internet penetration is approximately 60% or higher the data output reflects the general population. Of the 14
countries surveyed online, 12 yield results that are balanced to reflect the general population: Australia, Belgium, Canada, France,
Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States. The two remaining countries surveyed -
India (19%) and South Africa (47%) - have lower levels of internet connectivity and are therefore not reflective of the general
population; however, the online sample in these countries are valuable in their own right as they are more
urban/educated/income than their fellow citizens and are often referred to as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.
• Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or
not stated responses. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

4. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 4
Referendum on the
EU

5. 5Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave?
Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the
following outcomes do you think is most likely?
53%
47%
62%
38%
European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO
REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE
THE EUROPEAN UNION

6. 6Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
65
59
57
56
56
51
50
42
40
68
64
60
58
58
35
42
43
44
44
49
50
58
60
32
36
40
42
42
Great Britain
Germany
Poland
Hungary
Sweden
Spain
Belgium
France
Italy
Canada
United States
India
Australia
South Africa
Will Britain stay in the EU or vote to leave?
Thinking about Britain's referendum on European Union membership, which of the
following outcomes do you think is most likely?
European Union countries
Countries outside of the European Union
% - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO
REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION
% - BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO
LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION

7. 7Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016
Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”?
Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European
Union membership?
How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now?
45% 33%
Think their own
country should hold a
referendum on EU
membership
Would vote "out" if a
referendum on their
country's EU
membership was held
now

8. 8Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 6017 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016
Who wants a referendum on the EU and would vote “OUT”?
Do you think your own country should or should not hold a referendum on its European
Union membership?
How would you vote if your country held such a referendum now?
58%
55%
43%
42%
41%
40%
40%
38%
48%
41%
39%
29%
22%
34%
26%
29%
Italy
France
Sweden
Belgium
Poland
Germany
Spain
Hungary
THINK THEIR OWN COUNTRY SHOULD HOLD A
REFERENDUM ON EU MEMBERSHIP
WOULD VOTE "OUT" IF A REFERENDUM ON THEIR
COUNTRY'S EU MEMBERSHIP WAS HELD NOW

9. 9Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Impact of Brexit on future EU
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow
48%
35%
18%
42%
42%
16%
European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union
AGREE
NEITHER AGREE NOR
DISAGREE
DISAGREE

10. 10Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Impact of Brexit on future EU
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
If Britain left the European Union, other countries would follow
15
9
16
12
9
8
11
9
8
9
15
9
5
5
40
42
35
39
39
37
32
33
34
40
33
35
30
28
26
31
37
31
37
34
40
40
36
41
33
35
51
53
13
9
9
13
10
18
12
13
19
9
12
16
12
11
6
9
3
5
4
3
5
5
3
2
8
5
2
3
Hungary
Sweden
Italy
Germany
Belgium
Poland
Spain
France
Great Britain
United States
India
South Africa
Canada
Australia
European Union countries
Countries outside of the European Union
% STRONGLY AGREE
% TEND TO AGREE
% NEITHER AGREE NOR
DISAGREE
% TEND TO DISAGREE
% STRONGLY AGREE

11. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 11
Impact of Brexit

12. 12Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy
If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive
or negative impact, or make no difference, on…
the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy?
European Union
countries
Countries outside of the
European Union
36%
51%
29%
41%
THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT
TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY
THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT
TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY

13. 13Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
The impact of Brexit on the British and EU economy
If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive
or negative impact, or make no difference, on…
the EU’s economy / Britain’s economy?
European Union countries
Countries outside of the
European Union
75
60
53 53
49 49
44
40 39
49
44 44
39
28
46
37 36
30
39
24
43
30
43
34 31
26 26 25
Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy Great
Britain
France Germany South
Africa
Canada United
States
Australia India
% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT
TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR THE EU'S ECONOMY
% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT
TO VERY NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY

14. 14Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
The impact of Brexit on world politics
If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive
or negative impact, or make no difference, on…
the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage?
European Union
countries
Countries outside of the
European Union
38%
48%
26%
34%
THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY
NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE
THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY
NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE

15. 15Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
The impact of Brexit on world politics
If Britain did vote to leave the European Union, do you think it would have a positive
or negative impact, or make no difference, on…
the EU’s influence on the world stage / Britain’s influence on the world stage?
European Union countries
Countries outside of the
European Union
68
59
49 47 45 45
39 39 38
43
36 34 31
26
48
37 41
36
41
30
39 41
31
37
23 26 23 24
Hungary Sweden Spain Poland Belgium Italy Great
Britain
Germany France South
Africa
United
States
Canada Australia India
% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY
NEGATIVE FOR EU'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE
% THINK THAT BREXIT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT TO VERY
NEGATIVE FOR BRITAIN'S INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD STAGE

16. 16Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain,
Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK
If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship
between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference?
5%
46%
48%
16%
64%
21%
European Union countries Countries outside of the European Union
STRONGER
MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE
WEAKER

17. 17Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Base: 10025 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Spain,
Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Impact of Brexit on relationship with UK
If Britain leaves the European Union, do you think it would make the relationship
between your country and Britain stronger, weaker, or make no difference?
58
56
54
46
46
44
44
37
32
24
20
15
12
38
41
39
48
52
49
53
52
59
51
58
74
77
4
4
8
6
2
7
4
11
9
25
22
12
12
Spain
Germany
Hungary
Poland
Belgium
Italy
France
Sweden
South Africa
India
United States
Canada
Australia
European Union countries
Countries outside of the European Union
% STRONGER
% MAKE NO DIFFERENCE
% WEAKER

18. Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 18
Future of Europe

19. 19Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
How the future EU will and should look like
Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016
Do you think the European Union in 2020
will...
What should be the long-term policy of
your country?
6%
16%
39%
29%
11%
...have a single European government
...be more integrated, with more powers
for the European Union compared to
individual countries
...resemble todays European Union, with
the same balance of powers between the
EU and individual countries
...be less integrated, with fewer powers
for the European Union compared to
individual countries
...have disappeared altogether
15%
24%
18%
23%
21%
Work for the formation of a single
European government
Stay in the EU and try to increase the EU's
powers
Leave things as they are
Stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's
powers
Leave the European Union

20. 20Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
How the future EU will and should look like
(1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and
(2) What should be the long-term policy of your country…
21%
39% 40%39%
18%
43%
More Europe Same Less Europe
(1) ...have a single European
government+ ...be more integrated, with
more powers for the European Union
compared to individual countries
(2) Work for the formation of a single
European government + Stay in the EU
and try to increase the EU's powers
(1) ...resemble todays European Union,
with the same balance of powers
between the EU and individual
countries
(2) Leave things as they are
(1) ...be less integrated, with fewer
powers for the European Union
compared to individual countries +
...have disappeared altogether
(2) Stay in the EU and try to reduce
the EU's powers + Leave the European
Union
Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain , Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016
WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE (1)
WHAT PEOPLE WANT (2)

21. 21Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
How the future EU will and should look like
(1) Do you think the European Union in 2020 will... and
(2) What should be the long-term policy of your country…
17
47 3650
17
33
More Europe Same Less Europe
21 33 4743
21
36
More Europe Same Less Europe
21
38 41
20 28
52
More Europe Same Less Europe
22 27
5144
12
45
More Europe Same Less Europe
18
42 4140
13
47
More Europe Same Less Europe
22
45 3346
20 34
More Europe Same Less Europe
24
39 37
15 20
65
More Europe Same Less Europe
25 34 4143
14
43
More Europe Same Less Europe
22
46 32
48
18
34
More Europe Same Less Europe
Base: 7022 adults aged 16-64 across Belgium, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, March-April 2016
Belgium Poland Sweden
Hungary France Germany
Great Britain Italy Spain
% WHAT PEOPLE THINK IT WILL BE % WHAT PEOPLE WANT

22. 22Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016
29%
37%
34% 21%
39%
40%
Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor
Views on future EU - outside Europe
Do you think the European Union in 2020 will...
Base: 11030 adults aged 16-64 across Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Poland, South Africa,
Spain, Sweden, United States, March-April 2016
Outer pie:
Countries
outside of the
European Union
Inner pie: European
Union countries
…HAVE A SINGLE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT+ BE MORE INTEGRATED, WITH MORE POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
…RESEMBLE TODAYS EUROPEAN UNION, WITH THE SAME BALANCE OF POWERS BETWEEN THE EU AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
...BE LESS INTEGRATED, WITH FEWER POWERS FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION COMPARED TO INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES + ...HAVE DISAPPEARED ALTOGETHER
43%
34%
29%
23%
18%
28%
31%
35%
43%
47%
30%
35%
37%
34%
35%
India
South Africa
United States
Australia
Canada

23. www.ipsos-mori.com/
Brexit poll | May 2016 | Version 1 | Embargoed until 00:01 GMT Monday 9 May 2016 23
Jean-Michel Lebrun
Research Director, Ipsos
+32 (0) 2 642 49 10
jean-michel.lebrun@ipsos.com
For more information
Gideon Skinner
Research Director, Ipsos MORI UK
+44 (0)20 7347 3260
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Daan Bijwaard
Research Executive, Ipsos
+32 (0) 2 642 49 37
daan.bijwaard@ipsos.com