As we enter the final week of campaigning ahead of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU), our new poll for STV News suggests that the majority of Scots will back the campaign to retain membership. Among those who are likely to vote next week, 58% would vote for the UK to stay in the EU while 33% support Brexit and 8% are undecided. Once we have removed undecided voters, 64% back Remain and 36% Brexit.

1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 1
EUROPE
Scottish Public
Opinion Monitor June 2016

2. 2Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
58%
33%
10%
53%
32%
15%
ALL (1,000) THOSE LIKELY TO VOTE (763)
EU Referendum voting intention Combined
REMAIN
LEAVE
UNDECIDED /
WOULD NOT VOTE /
REFUSED
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION:
‘SHOULD THE UK REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR SHOULD IT LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 6th-12th June 2016
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

3. 3Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
EU Referendum voting intentions
64%
36%
REMAIN
LEAVE
Base: All likely to vote excluding undecided/refused (670).
Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 6th-12th June 2016
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION:
‘SHOULD THE UK REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR SHOULD IT LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
ALL LIKELY TO VOTE AND GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
(670)

4. 4Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
Have voters decided yet?
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
84%
15%
1%
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
Base: All giving a voting intention (729).
Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 6th-12th June 2016
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

5. 5Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
Have voters decided yet?
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
82%
18%
Remain a member of EU Leave EU
Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (465) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (264)
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN IN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN
UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
86%
13%
1%

6. 6Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Impact of Leaving EU
IF THE UK VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT
WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
32%
32%
40%
34%
48%
13%
18%
20%
18%
22%
Your own standard of living
Scotland's influence in the world
Britain's influence in the world
Scotland's public services
Scotland's economy over the next
five years
Better Worse
Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 6th-12th June 2016

7. 7Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
IndyRef 2?
IF THE UK VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION WHEN VOTERS IN SCOTLAND VOTE TO
REMAIN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION, SOME HAVE SUGGESTED THAT ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE MAY BE HELD. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE WITHIN TWO YEARS
IF THE UK LEAVES THE EUROPEAN UNION WHEN VOTERS IN SCOTLAND VOTE TO REMAIN IN
THE EUROPEAN UNION?
47%
8%
45%
AGREE
NEITHER AGREE NOR
DISAGREE / DON’T KNOW
DISAGREE
Base: All. Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 6th-12th June 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

8. 8Political Monitor | June 2016 | Final | Public
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,000 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 6th – 12th June 2016.
Data are weighted by: age, sex, education qualification and working status using census data; tenure
using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public
Sector Employment series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,000) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com;
0131 220 5699