The EU is going through an existential crisis. Support for the EU is at an all-time low across a swathe of Member States. The campaigns for the forthcoming European Parliament elections (22-25 May) have represented an important opportunity for current and candidate MEPs to explain to citizens what the EU is and does, and the benefits of membership. But has that opportunity been squandered? FTI Consulting examine the results of some proprietary research conducted at how successful MEPs have been in communicating about the EU in the run up to the elections.
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
Olivier Desbarres - UK Election Special – When Two Tribes Go To WarOlivier Desbarres
British voters will on Thursday 8th June vote on the composition of the 650-seat House of Commons – the third major popular vote in two years – after Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision back in April to trigger early general elections.
Theresa May’s motivations were arguably four-fold: (1) Win a popular rather than party mandate, (2) Capitalise on the massive lead in the polls the ruling Conservatives enjoyed over the opposition Labour Party and thus allow her to push through her own agenda, including a possibly softer form of Brexit, (3) Allow the government more time to secure a new EU trade deal, and (4) Strengthen the government’s stance in negotiations with the EU.
Objectives (1) and (3) will likely be met but objectives (2) and (4) may prove more elusive.
Opinion polls point to a trend-fall in popular support for the Conservatives to around 44% and sharp rise for Labour to 35%, with the gap between the two main parties halving to about 9pp from 20pp six weeks ago. Aggregate support for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, SNP and Green Party is flat-lining around 18%.
However, there is still great discrepancy amongst polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions. Moreover the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to translate share of votes into seats numbers. Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority, as You Gov currently predicts, is a tough call.
Nevertheless, a number of important themes have emerged in recent months.
First, the slingshot campaign has exposed the frailty and flaws of the Conservative machine, including of its leader and manifesto, and reinforced my view, first set out in December, that the government is ill-equipped, ill-prepared and lacking in institutional capacity to negotiate complex deals with the EU and non-EU partners.
Second, it is a two-horse race between the ruling Conservatives and Labour, with the other parties on course to secure only a modest number of seats – a break with recent elections.
Finally, the political centre of gravity has shifted to the left, with in particular tax rates likely to rise regardless of which party wins next week’s election.
My core scenario is a hollow victory for the Conservatives: 360-370 seats with a low voter turnout. This would reduce the risk of opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs torpedoing government legislation but would fall short of the landslide victory which Conservatives thought possible back in April.
Finally, a modest (or even significant) increase in the Conservative’s parliamentary majority is unlikely to materially improve the government’s hand when negotiating with the EU.
Immigration is one of the key issues which will affect how people vote in the upcoming EU referendum, along with the effect on the economy and Britain’s sovereignty, a new Ipsos MORI study published today finds.
The survey of c.4,000 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration change over time.
Journalists and media in Ukraine - Reporters Without Borders - 2016DonbassFullAccess
The Ukrainians’ trust in the media increased slightly in 2015 compared to 2014. A survey carried out by the Institute of Sociology at the National Academy of Sciences in 2015 showed that 32.3 percent of Ukrainians trusted the media while 38.9 percent didn’t. The survey from the previous year showed that only 25.2 percent trusted the media while 45.4 percent said they didn’t.
During the research for this report most of the people Reporters Without Borders (RSF) talked to expressed concern that faced with the triple challenge of the war in the east of the country, the economic crisis and the digitization of mass media.
This report is based on approximately 30 interviews conducted by RSF Germany board member Gemma Pörzgen in January/February 2016 with journalists, media experts and observers in Kiev, Lviv and Odessa. It deals with the situation of journalists and the media in those areas of Ukraine over which the Ukrainian government has sovereignty. The situation in Crimea, annexed by Russia in March 2014, and in the separatist-controlled areas of Eastern Ukraine is not dealt with here. It deserves its own separate report, particularly since access to these areas is extremely difficult for foreign observers at present.
75% of 130 analysts, consultants, journalists, finance specialists, real-sector heads, policy-makers and portfolio managers forecast that the UK electorate will vote in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union (EU) in the 23rd June referendum, in a survey which I conducted between the 10th and 16th May. That ratio jumps to 81% when the 10 respondents who did not have a view are excluded.
Olivier Desbarres - UK Election Special – When Two Tribes Go To WarOlivier Desbarres
British voters will on Thursday 8th June vote on the composition of the 650-seat House of Commons – the third major popular vote in two years – after Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision back in April to trigger early general elections.
Theresa May’s motivations were arguably four-fold: (1) Win a popular rather than party mandate, (2) Capitalise on the massive lead in the polls the ruling Conservatives enjoyed over the opposition Labour Party and thus allow her to push through her own agenda, including a possibly softer form of Brexit, (3) Allow the government more time to secure a new EU trade deal, and (4) Strengthen the government’s stance in negotiations with the EU.
Objectives (1) and (3) will likely be met but objectives (2) and (4) may prove more elusive.
Opinion polls point to a trend-fall in popular support for the Conservatives to around 44% and sharp rise for Labour to 35%, with the gap between the two main parties halving to about 9pp from 20pp six weeks ago. Aggregate support for the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, SNP and Green Party is flat-lining around 18%.
However, there is still great discrepancy amongst polling agencies which in the past have misestimated true voting intentions. Moreover the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it difficult to translate share of votes into seats numbers. Whether the Conservatives significantly improve on their current 330 seats or fail to secure a parliamentary majority, as You Gov currently predicts, is a tough call.
Nevertheless, a number of important themes have emerged in recent months.
First, the slingshot campaign has exposed the frailty and flaws of the Conservative machine, including of its leader and manifesto, and reinforced my view, first set out in December, that the government is ill-equipped, ill-prepared and lacking in institutional capacity to negotiate complex deals with the EU and non-EU partners.
Second, it is a two-horse race between the ruling Conservatives and Labour, with the other parties on course to secure only a modest number of seats – a break with recent elections.
Finally, the political centre of gravity has shifted to the left, with in particular tax rates likely to rise regardless of which party wins next week’s election.
My core scenario is a hollow victory for the Conservatives: 360-370 seats with a low voter turnout. This would reduce the risk of opposition parties and rebel Conservative MPs torpedoing government legislation but would fall short of the landslide victory which Conservatives thought possible back in April.
Finally, a modest (or even significant) increase in the Conservative’s parliamentary majority is unlikely to materially improve the government’s hand when negotiating with the EU.
Immigration is one of the key issues which will affect how people vote in the upcoming EU referendum, along with the effect on the economy and Britain’s sovereignty, a new Ipsos MORI study published today finds.
The survey of c.4,000 British adults is the latest in a unique longitudinal study which looks to track how individuals’ views on immigration change over time.
Journalists and media in Ukraine - Reporters Without Borders - 2016DonbassFullAccess
The Ukrainians’ trust in the media increased slightly in 2015 compared to 2014. A survey carried out by the Institute of Sociology at the National Academy of Sciences in 2015 showed that 32.3 percent of Ukrainians trusted the media while 38.9 percent didn’t. The survey from the previous year showed that only 25.2 percent trusted the media while 45.4 percent said they didn’t.
During the research for this report most of the people Reporters Without Borders (RSF) talked to expressed concern that faced with the triple challenge of the war in the east of the country, the economic crisis and the digitization of mass media.
This report is based on approximately 30 interviews conducted by RSF Germany board member Gemma Pörzgen in January/February 2016 with journalists, media experts and observers in Kiev, Lviv and Odessa. It deals with the situation of journalists and the media in those areas of Ukraine over which the Ukrainian government has sovereignty. The situation in Crimea, annexed by Russia in March 2014, and in the separatist-controlled areas of Eastern Ukraine is not dealt with here. It deserves its own separate report, particularly since access to these areas is extremely difficult for foreign observers at present.
What do citizens think about the EU and how they will vote in European Parlia...Kantar Public
CEPS Ideas Lab brings together Europe's top decision-makers and thinkers to discuss the most pressing issue confronting the EU. Kantar Public Brussels' Nicolas Bécuwe joined a panel on 21 February to give insight into how the citizens of the EU will vote, and what they think about the EU.
With Simon Hix Harold Laski Professor of Political Science, Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science; Philipp Schulmeister Head of Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, European Parliament; Aart de Geus (moderator) Chairman Executive Board, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
For more information about the CEP Ideas Lab 2019 and the full programme, please visit their website.
Business and Brexit: The risks of taking a stanceIpsos UK
British adults think that businesses should be involved in the EU referendum debate – but that doesn’t mean they will trust them. When asked whether different types of business should take part in the EU referendum campaign, support was high for British businesses to participate by publicly backing one side or the other, especially SMEs. However, this does not necessarily mean the public trust what big businesses say on the issues.
The new survey finds three-quarters (75%) of the public say that small and medium-size British businesses should participate in the debate – more than say the same for other groups such as academics (68%), think tanks (54%) and newspapers (52%). The contributions of SMEs are more welcome than those of big businesses – but still nearly seven in ten (69%) of British adults are happy for big British businesses which trade internationally to make their opinion on Brexit known. However, while three-fifths (57%) say that they trust small business owners on issues relating to the referendum, leaders of large businesses fare worse, being trusted on the issues by just three in ten (29%).
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2014 - EuropeIpsos UK
Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.
The first round of the French Presidential elections is due to be held in 25 days (on 23rd April), with the likely second round two weeks later on 7th May. In many ways this is proving to be a unique election campaign but the centre-left Emmanuel Macron still comfortably leads National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in second round polls.
This in-depth four-part Election Series examines all core elements of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections and takes a quantitative and qualitative approach. In Part II, I tackle seven questions, looking at past presidential elections where appropriate:
Q1: Who are the presidential candidates?
Eleven candidates, spanning the breadth of the political spectrum, will officially contest the first round in a bid to capture the 46 million or so votes up for grabs. However, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen remain comfortably ahead in the polls on around 25%.
Q2: What are their relative strengths and weaknesses?
The recent televised debate between the top five candidates was high calibre, in my view, and the front-runners have in recent months shown clear strengths…but also weaknesses.
Q3: What are the odds of a candidate winning an absolute majority in the first round?
No candidate has ever obtained more than 50% of the popular vote in the first round. This time looks no different and a second round is a near certainty based on latest polls.
Q4: Does the number of sponsors have a bearing on first round results?
The relationship is tenuous but does suggest that Le Pen will fail to win the presidency.
Q5: Does the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?
The large number of candidates points to the winner and runner-up of the first round winning only just over half of the votes, broadly in line with recent opinion polls.
Q6: Does the first round result have a bearing on the outcome of the second round?
Precedent suggests that a small margin of victory in the first round makes the second round outcome harder to predict. This year’s election could prove a break with the past.
Q7: Does it matter who came third or fourth in the first round?
It has on a few occasions but assuming that Fillon comes third and the left-wing candidates fourth and fifth, polls point to a convincing Macron win versus le Pen in the second round.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
It's 2015 and MEPs use social media. Is that news? Probably not. But how do MEPs use online tools and more generally, how do they consume information and prefer to interact with stakeholders? Follow #MEPDigital and @FleishmanEU for a steady stream of insights on what these results mean for public affairs professionals.
Rendez-vous de l’économie FTI Consulting en partenariat avec Odoxa - Les Echo...FTI Consulting FR
Ce mois-ci, notre « Rendez-vous de l’économie FTI Consulting en partenariat avec Odoxa - Les Echos et Radio Classique » porte sur la loi santé.
Les résultats de ce sondage ont été publiés ce matin dans Les Echos et diffusés sur Radio Classique. On y apprend notamment que :
• Sept Français sur dix soutiennent la généralisation du tiers-payant, disposition phare du PLS de Marisol Touraine
• Pourtant, les Français comprennent aussi l’opposition des médecins à cette généralisation du tiers payant
• Santé publique : l’assouplissement de la loi Evin et l’instauration des paquets neutres divisent les Français, suscitant un assez fort clivage gauche-droite
Tribune de Bruno Poulin, Président d'Ossiam, société de gestion spécialiste du smart beta et des ETF de stratégie, sur les « robo-advisors ». Retrouvez cette tribune dans l'Agefi Hebdo du 22 - 28 octobre 2015.
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CEPS Ideas Lab brings together Europe's top decision-makers and thinkers to discuss the most pressing issue confronting the EU. Kantar Public Brussels' Nicolas Bécuwe joined a panel on 21 February to give insight into how the citizens of the EU will vote, and what they think about the EU.
With Simon Hix Harold Laski Professor of Political Science, Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science; Philipp Schulmeister Head of Public Opinion Monitoring Unit, European Parliament; Aart de Geus (moderator) Chairman Executive Board, Bertelsmann Stiftung.
For more information about the CEP Ideas Lab 2019 and the full programme, please visit their website.
Business and Brexit: The risks of taking a stanceIpsos UK
British adults think that businesses should be involved in the EU referendum debate – but that doesn’t mean they will trust them. When asked whether different types of business should take part in the EU referendum campaign, support was high for British businesses to participate by publicly backing one side or the other, especially SMEs. However, this does not necessarily mean the public trust what big businesses say on the issues.
The new survey finds three-quarters (75%) of the public say that small and medium-size British businesses should participate in the debate – more than say the same for other groups such as academics (68%), think tanks (54%) and newspapers (52%). The contributions of SMEs are more welcome than those of big businesses – but still nearly seven in ten (69%) of British adults are happy for big British businesses which trade internationally to make their opinion on Brexit known. However, while three-fifths (57%) say that they trust small business owners on issues relating to the referendum, leaders of large businesses fare worse, being trusted on the issues by just three in ten (29%).
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Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor for May reveals a large shift in public opinion towards staying in the European Union over the last two years. More than half of Britons (54%) would vote to stay in the European Union in a referendum, with 37% saying they would vote to leave. This is a turnaround since we last asked the question in November 2012, prior to David Cameron’s pledge to provide a referendum were the Conservatives to win power in next year’s general election, when 44% said they would vote to stay in the EU, with 48% saying they would vote to get out.
The first round of the French Presidential elections is due to be held in 25 days (on 23rd April), with the likely second round two weeks later on 7th May. In many ways this is proving to be a unique election campaign but the centre-left Emmanuel Macron still comfortably leads National Front candidate Marine Le Pen in second round polls.
This in-depth four-part Election Series examines all core elements of the upcoming presidential and legislative elections and takes a quantitative and qualitative approach. In Part II, I tackle seven questions, looking at past presidential elections where appropriate:
Q1: Who are the presidential candidates?
Eleven candidates, spanning the breadth of the political spectrum, will officially contest the first round in a bid to capture the 46 million or so votes up for grabs. However, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen remain comfortably ahead in the polls on around 25%.
Q2: What are their relative strengths and weaknesses?
The recent televised debate between the top five candidates was high calibre, in my view, and the front-runners have in recent months shown clear strengths…but also weaknesses.
Q3: What are the odds of a candidate winning an absolute majority in the first round?
No candidate has ever obtained more than 50% of the popular vote in the first round. This time looks no different and a second round is a near certainty based on latest polls.
Q4: Does the number of sponsors have a bearing on first round results?
The relationship is tenuous but does suggest that Le Pen will fail to win the presidency.
Q5: Does the number of candidates have a bearing on first round results?
The large number of candidates points to the winner and runner-up of the first round winning only just over half of the votes, broadly in line with recent opinion polls.
Q6: Does the first round result have a bearing on the outcome of the second round?
Precedent suggests that a small margin of victory in the first round makes the second round outcome harder to predict. This year’s election could prove a break with the past.
Q7: Does it matter who came third or fourth in the first round?
It has on a few occasions but assuming that Fillon comes third and the left-wing candidates fourth and fifth, polls point to a convincing Macron win versus le Pen in the second round.
Presentation by Cornelius Hirsch at the 2019 CMPF Summer School for Journalists and Media Practitioners - Covering Political Campaigns in the Age of Data, Algorithms & Artificial Intelligence
It's 2015 and MEPs use social media. Is that news? Probably not. But how do MEPs use online tools and more generally, how do they consume information and prefer to interact with stakeholders? Follow #MEPDigital and @FleishmanEU for a steady stream of insights on what these results mean for public affairs professionals.
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03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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European Elections - MEPs and Constituent Communication
1. Strategic Communications
SNAPSHOT
EU Elections – MEPs & constituent communication
16 May 2014
CRITICAL THINKING AT THE CRITICAL TIME™
The EU is going through an existential crisis. Support for
the EU is at an all-time low across a swathe of Member
States. The campaigns for the forthcoming European
Parliament elections (22-25 May) have represented an
important opportunity for current and candidate MEPs to
explain to citizens what the EU is and does, and the
benefits of membership. But has that opportunity been
squandered? In the 7th in our series of FTI Consulting
snapshots on the European elections, we examine the
results of some proprietary research conducted at how
successful MEPs have been in communicating about the
EU in the run up to the elections.
FTI Consulting conducted two surveys to evaluate the
communication efforts of MEPs on specific issues, with the
purpose of benchmarking and comparing how answers
evolved over five months. We surveyed respondents across
Germany, France, Poland, Spain and the UK, representing
around 297m of 508m EU citizens, represented by 351 MEPs.
Communicating the EU
Overall the results of the poll are sobering: more than 50% of
respondents thought that their MEPs’ communication was
ineffective overall, with the situation stagnating or even
deteriorating between October 2013 and April 2014. Poland
was the only exception, where there was a slight improvement
in the perception of MEPs’ communications.
How well would you generally rate the effectiveness of your MEPs
communication on the following in the last 12 months: Overall?
When asked about the effectiveness of MEP communication
on specific subjects, for example on the benefits of the EU to
each of the countries, the picture changes only slightly. The
most striking finding is that in Germany the proportion of
respondents perceiving MEP communication on this subject to
be ineffective rose from 39% to 52%.
How well would you generally rate the effectiveness of your MEPs
communication on the following in the last 12 months: Benefits of the EU to your
country?
Again, in rating the effectiveness of MEP communication on
data protection, one of the most controversial subjects
currently debated in Europe, in all countries bar Poland
respondents expressed a more negative opinion in April 2014
than in October 2013. Indeed Poland markedly bucked the
trend here, where in October 2013 only 27% believed their
MEPs’ communication on this subject to be effective,
compared to the 44% who believed so in April 2014.
How well would you generally rate the effectiveness of your MEPs
communication on the following in the last 12 months: Data privacy?
With the notable exception of Poland, the impression is that
MEPs’ communication to citizens on key EU issues has
worsened during the election campaign. Perhaps somewhat
predictably, views are particularly negative in the UK and
France (where we have witnessed the rise of UKIP and the
Front National respectively). Even in Germany, which has the
largest and strongest EU economy, perceptions of how MEPs
have communicated the benefits of the EU are poor.
Negative campaigning
This may be due to by the fact that the major national political
parties tend to spend less on European election campaigns
than on in national elections1, whereas Eurosceptic parties
tend to spend more in EP than national elections.
Clearly, incumbent MEPs have not taken the opportunity the
election campaign has afforded to effectively communicate the
EU to their electorates, especially on issues of fundamental
importance to the EU and its future. It is then no surprise that
1 FAZ, 19 April: Parteien verdienen prächtig am Europawahlkampf
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
UK GermanyFrance Spain Poland
Don't know
Very or
slightly
ineffective
Very or
slightly
effective
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
UK Germany France Spain Poland
Don't know
Very or
slightly
ineffective
Very or
slightly
effective
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
UK GermanyFrance Spain Poland
Don't know
Very or
slightly
ineffective
Very or
slightly
effective