This document summarizes the global pork trade outlook for 2019, with a focus on key markets and issues. Global pork trade is expected to set new records this year, though the degree to which the U.S. benefits depends on tariffs. China, Europe, Mexico, and Japan are highlighted as four key areas due to African swine fever, Brexit, U.S. tariffs on Mexico, and continued growth in Japan-U.S. trade respectively. Strong global demand remains but will be impacted by these issues and economic conditions.
Dustin Baker - Pork Industry Economic UpdateJohn Blue
Pork Industry Economic Update - Dustin Baker, National Pork Producers Council, from the 2019 Minnesota Pork Congress, February 5 - 6, 2019, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_5bHW6MgRAxR_WyINKBPyCwAeXFJ5CfZ
The beef market in Northern Australia is booming, with cattle properties being highly sought after assets. Beef cattle prices are at record highs due to declining herd numbers from drought and increased global demand. This has boosted property prices, with large cattle stations selling for over $1,000 per acre. International investors are increasingly interested in the Northern Australian beef market, exemplified by the upcoming sale of Kidman & Co's large cattle portfolio attracting overseas bidders.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Livestock & Poultry OutlookJohn Blue
Livestock & Poultry Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Vice-President, Pork Analysis, EMI Analytics, from the 2016 World Pork Expo, June 8 - 10, 2016, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-world-pork-expo
Dr Dev Kambhampati | USDA- Livestock & Poultry- World Markets & TradeDr Dev Kambhampati
India and Turkey are gaining global market share in beef and poultry exports due to competitive advantages of geography and product differentiation. India's beef exports have nearly tripled since 2008 and are forecast to reach a record 1.9 million tons in 2014, giving it a 20% global market share. Turkey's broiler meat exports have also increased dramatically and are forecast to reach a record 480,000 tons in 2014, though it only has a 4% global market share currently. Their proximity to key markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East helps reduce shipping costs for India, while over half of Turkey's volume is shipped overland to Iraq. Both countries also supply halal meat desired in many of their Muslim-majority import markets
The document provides an overview and outlook of commodity markets in 2020, with a focus on US and Canadian/Ontario market situations and projections. It summarizes key data on crop and livestock production, exports, prices, and supply/demand balances for major commodities like corn, soybeans, beef, and pork in the US and Ontario from 2007-2019. Projections show stable-to-increasing production and exports for most commodities in North America through 2021.
This document provides an economic outlook for the pork industry in 2015 and beyond from Steve Meyer, Vice President of Pork Analysis at EMI Analytics. Key points discussed include the impacts of PEDv, avian influenza, beef and grain market dynamics, consumer demand trends, and export issues. Meyer predicts generally positive profits and prices for pork producers in 2015 and 2016, with production expected to increase around 2% annually as the breeding herd rebuilds from PEDv losses. Chicken production is forecast to increase 3-4% in 2015 due to improving productivity and weights. Beef supplies will remain tight in the short-term due to herd rebuilding and weather impacts.
The Rabobank Global Cattle Price Index improved further in 2H 2013. Supported by both continuing strong Chinese import growth and lower-than-expected supply in the main export markets, cattle prices were mainly positive. However, the market has been unable to reach its full potential due to consumers’ resistance against high prices in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), still two of the main beef markets.
Dustin Baker - Pork Industry Economic UpdateJohn Blue
Pork Industry Economic Update - Dustin Baker, National Pork Producers Council, from the 2019 Minnesota Pork Congress, February 5 - 6, 2019, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL_5bHW6MgRAxR_WyINKBPyCwAeXFJ5CfZ
The beef market in Northern Australia is booming, with cattle properties being highly sought after assets. Beef cattle prices are at record highs due to declining herd numbers from drought and increased global demand. This has boosted property prices, with large cattle stations selling for over $1,000 per acre. International investors are increasingly interested in the Northern Australian beef market, exemplified by the upcoming sale of Kidman & Co's large cattle portfolio attracting overseas bidders.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Livestock & Poultry OutlookJohn Blue
Livestock & Poultry Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Vice-President, Pork Analysis, EMI Analytics, from the 2016 World Pork Expo, June 8 - 10, 2016, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-world-pork-expo
Dr Dev Kambhampati | USDA- Livestock & Poultry- World Markets & TradeDr Dev Kambhampati
India and Turkey are gaining global market share in beef and poultry exports due to competitive advantages of geography and product differentiation. India's beef exports have nearly tripled since 2008 and are forecast to reach a record 1.9 million tons in 2014, giving it a 20% global market share. Turkey's broiler meat exports have also increased dramatically and are forecast to reach a record 480,000 tons in 2014, though it only has a 4% global market share currently. Their proximity to key markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East helps reduce shipping costs for India, while over half of Turkey's volume is shipped overland to Iraq. Both countries also supply halal meat desired in many of their Muslim-majority import markets
The document provides an overview and outlook of commodity markets in 2020, with a focus on US and Canadian/Ontario market situations and projections. It summarizes key data on crop and livestock production, exports, prices, and supply/demand balances for major commodities like corn, soybeans, beef, and pork in the US and Ontario from 2007-2019. Projections show stable-to-increasing production and exports for most commodities in North America through 2021.
This document provides an economic outlook for the pork industry in 2015 and beyond from Steve Meyer, Vice President of Pork Analysis at EMI Analytics. Key points discussed include the impacts of PEDv, avian influenza, beef and grain market dynamics, consumer demand trends, and export issues. Meyer predicts generally positive profits and prices for pork producers in 2015 and 2016, with production expected to increase around 2% annually as the breeding herd rebuilds from PEDv losses. Chicken production is forecast to increase 3-4% in 2015 due to improving productivity and weights. Beef supplies will remain tight in the short-term due to herd rebuilding and weather impacts.
The Rabobank Global Cattle Price Index improved further in 2H 2013. Supported by both continuing strong Chinese import growth and lower-than-expected supply in the main export markets, cattle prices were mainly positive. However, the market has been unable to reach its full potential due to consumers’ resistance against high prices in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), still two of the main beef markets.
Gold futures fell over one percent in American trade as the dollar index gained ground following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy and ahead of
Dr. Steve Meyer - Livestock & Poultry Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Livestock & Poultry Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Express Markets, from the 2016 Iowa Pork Congress, January 27-28, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-iowa-pork-congress
23rd january,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
This document provides an overview of Ireland's agri-food industry in 2019/2020. Some key points:
- Agriculture makes up 4.4 million hectares of Ireland's land area and employs over 265,000 people. The average age of farmers is rising.
- Agri-food exports reached €12.1 billion in 2018, down 4% from 2017 due to currency fluctuations. Dairy was the strongest performer with exports up 5%.
- New tractor registrations increased 5% in the first 7 months of 2019 compared to 2018, as farms get larger and need more powerful machinery. Used tractor sales also rose significantly.
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook_May 2012joseleorcasita
The document summarizes outlooks for various livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors in the United States for 2013. Specifically:
- Pork and poultry production are expected to increase moderately in 2013, while beef production declines. Pork exports are also forecast to grow moderately.
- Broiler and turkey production are both expected to increase in 2013, while egg production is mixed.
- Milk production growth is expected to be slight in 2013 as dairy cow numbers contract, lifting milk prices.
- The document provides further details on expectations for various sectors.
Beef production in 2013 is expected to be lower than 2012 despite reduced cattle slaughter, as heavier dressed weights have offset some of the decrease. Both cattle feeders and beef packers continue to struggle with poor margins that are unlikely to improve in the near future without higher cattle and beef prices or lower feed costs. U.S. beef imports have grown moderately in 2012 while exports have declined, constrained by tight domestic supplies and lower shipments to traditional trade partners. The outlook is for continued challenges for the beef industry over the coming year.
- Beef production in January 2013 was 2.1% higher than January 2012 when adjusted for the additional slaughter day. Cattle slaughter was up 4.4% but carcass weights were significantly heavier, averaging 20 pounds more.
- Pork production was 0.4% lower than January 2012 when adjusted for slaughter days. Hog slaughter was down 0.3% while carcass weights were slightly lower.
- Inventories of some pork products remain above year-ago levels, putting pressure on futures prices given reliance on exports for almost a quarter of US pork production.
This document provides an overview and outlook for various agricultural commodities in 2019. It summarizes the US and Canadian market situations and key factors influencing supply and demand. In the US, yields were forecasted to be above trend in 2018, keeping prices downward despite trade issues. The USDA implemented market facilitation payments for soybeans, hogs, and other crops impacted by trade disputes. Corn and soybean stocks were projected to decline while beef and pork production continued increasing to meet demand. In Ontario, soybean production has grown significantly in recent years while other crops have remained stable or declined.
Becca Nepple, Dr. Dermot Hayes - U.S. Exports & International TradeJohn Blue
U.S. Exports & International Trade - Becca Nepple, National Pork Board, and Dr. Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University, from the 2016 World Pork Expo, June 8 - 10, 2016, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-world-pork-expo
13th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news for readers.
Share your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine contact riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
- Commodity markets were mixed, with gold and base metals falling while energy markets rose.
- Traders are nervous about low volumes during China's upcoming Lunar New Year holiday and its impact on markets.
- Data showed a rise in US housing starts and building permits beating forecasts, while import prices also rose more than expected.
- Turmeric and jeera prices fell due to higher arrivals of the new crop, while soybean prices may find support due to lower crop forecasts.
- Mentha oil prices continued falling but seem to have found support at current levels.
Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDADr Dev Kambhampati
The document summarizes changes to USDA forecasts for US agricultural trade in Fiscal Year 2014. Key points include:
- Exports are forecast to increase $6.9 billion to a record $149.5 billion
- Imports are forecast to increase $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion
- The trade surplus is forecast to increase $6.4 billion to $39 billion
- Grain exports are forecast to increase driven by record soybean and feed volumes
- Livestock exports are forecast to increase to a record $35 billion
The document summarizes June 2012 export data for U.S. pork, beef, and chicken. Some key points:
- U.S. pork exports declined from May levels for major markets but remained 7.8% higher than June 2011. Exports to China were lower than recent averages but 57.6% higher than a year ago.
- Total beef exports continued to lag 2011, down 11.4% for the year. However, beef export value was slightly higher than June 2011.
- Chicken exports exceeded year-ago levels by over 13% through June, with shipments to Mexico and Eastern Europe significantly higher than 2011.
Industrial growth in India unexpectedly declined to 0.1% in March due to a 1.2% contraction in manufacturing output. Consumer price inflation rose to a 3-month high of 5.4% in April, exceeding expectations and driven by high food prices. The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting in June given low growth and inflation above the target rate of 5% for fiscal year 2017.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
Vietnam's meat market is growing rapidly due to rising incomes and population growth. While pork production meets domestic demand, there are shortages in beef and chicken. Geographical limitations, reliance on imported feed, and small farm sizes constrain sustainable livestock raising. Meat imports have doubled in four years, with bovine meat imports increasing four-fold and now accounting for 45% of total meat imports. While pork remains the most consumed meat, beef and poultry consumption are growing faster. Foreign meat producers have competitive advantages over local producers due to economies of scale and access to cheap feed. However, large Vietnamese companies adopting integrated production models from feed to retail are finding success in competing. The opening market presents opportunities for foreign investors but also challenges for
Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade away from December 29 lows as the dollar index fell from January 18 highs for the second session following earlier
Dr. Dermot J. Hayes - Pork Export OutlookJohn Blue
Pork Export Outlook - Dr. Dermot J. Hayes, Professor of Economics, Iowa State University, from the 2018 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 16 - 17, 2018, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-minnesota-pork-congress
Dr. Travis Arp - International View - Around the World in 90 Days - Policies ...John Blue
International View - Around the World in 90 Days - Policies Influencing Our Journey - Dr. Travis Arp, Manager of Technical Services, U.S. Meat Export Federation, from the 2015 Animal Agriculture Alliance Stakeholders Summit, The Journey to Extraordinary, May 6 - 7, 2015, Kansas City, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2015-the-journey-to-extraordinary
Gold futures fell over one percent in American trade as the dollar index gained ground following earlier data from the US, the world's largest economy and ahead of
Dr. Steve Meyer - Livestock & Poultry Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Livestock & Poultry Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Express Markets, from the 2016 Iowa Pork Congress, January 27-28, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-iowa-pork-congress
23rd january,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
This document provides an overview of Ireland's agri-food industry in 2019/2020. Some key points:
- Agriculture makes up 4.4 million hectares of Ireland's land area and employs over 265,000 people. The average age of farmers is rising.
- Agri-food exports reached €12.1 billion in 2018, down 4% from 2017 due to currency fluctuations. Dairy was the strongest performer with exports up 5%.
- New tractor registrations increased 5% in the first 7 months of 2019 compared to 2018, as farms get larger and need more powerful machinery. Used tractor sales also rose significantly.
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook_May 2012joseleorcasita
The document summarizes outlooks for various livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors in the United States for 2013. Specifically:
- Pork and poultry production are expected to increase moderately in 2013, while beef production declines. Pork exports are also forecast to grow moderately.
- Broiler and turkey production are both expected to increase in 2013, while egg production is mixed.
- Milk production growth is expected to be slight in 2013 as dairy cow numbers contract, lifting milk prices.
- The document provides further details on expectations for various sectors.
Beef production in 2013 is expected to be lower than 2012 despite reduced cattle slaughter, as heavier dressed weights have offset some of the decrease. Both cattle feeders and beef packers continue to struggle with poor margins that are unlikely to improve in the near future without higher cattle and beef prices or lower feed costs. U.S. beef imports have grown moderately in 2012 while exports have declined, constrained by tight domestic supplies and lower shipments to traditional trade partners. The outlook is for continued challenges for the beef industry over the coming year.
- Beef production in January 2013 was 2.1% higher than January 2012 when adjusted for the additional slaughter day. Cattle slaughter was up 4.4% but carcass weights were significantly heavier, averaging 20 pounds more.
- Pork production was 0.4% lower than January 2012 when adjusted for slaughter days. Hog slaughter was down 0.3% while carcass weights were slightly lower.
- Inventories of some pork products remain above year-ago levels, putting pressure on futures prices given reliance on exports for almost a quarter of US pork production.
This document provides an overview and outlook for various agricultural commodities in 2019. It summarizes the US and Canadian market situations and key factors influencing supply and demand. In the US, yields were forecasted to be above trend in 2018, keeping prices downward despite trade issues. The USDA implemented market facilitation payments for soybeans, hogs, and other crops impacted by trade disputes. Corn and soybean stocks were projected to decline while beef and pork production continued increasing to meet demand. In Ontario, soybean production has grown significantly in recent years while other crops have remained stable or declined.
Becca Nepple, Dr. Dermot Hayes - U.S. Exports & International TradeJohn Blue
U.S. Exports & International Trade - Becca Nepple, National Pork Board, and Dr. Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University, from the 2016 World Pork Expo, June 8 - 10, 2016, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-world-pork-expo
13th may,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news for readers.
Share your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine contact riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
- Commodity markets were mixed, with gold and base metals falling while energy markets rose.
- Traders are nervous about low volumes during China's upcoming Lunar New Year holiday and its impact on markets.
- Data showed a rise in US housing starts and building permits beating forecasts, while import prices also rose more than expected.
- Turmeric and jeera prices fell due to higher arrivals of the new crop, while soybean prices may find support due to lower crop forecasts.
- Mentha oil prices continued falling but seem to have found support at current levels.
Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDADr Dev Kambhampati
The document summarizes changes to USDA forecasts for US agricultural trade in Fiscal Year 2014. Key points include:
- Exports are forecast to increase $6.9 billion to a record $149.5 billion
- Imports are forecast to increase $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion
- The trade surplus is forecast to increase $6.4 billion to $39 billion
- Grain exports are forecast to increase driven by record soybean and feed volumes
- Livestock exports are forecast to increase to a record $35 billion
The document summarizes June 2012 export data for U.S. pork, beef, and chicken. Some key points:
- U.S. pork exports declined from May levels for major markets but remained 7.8% higher than June 2011. Exports to China were lower than recent averages but 57.6% higher than a year ago.
- Total beef exports continued to lag 2011, down 11.4% for the year. However, beef export value was slightly higher than June 2011.
- Chicken exports exceeded year-ago levels by over 13% through June, with shipments to Mexico and Eastern Europe significantly higher than 2011.
Industrial growth in India unexpectedly declined to 0.1% in March due to a 1.2% contraction in manufacturing output. Consumer price inflation rose to a 3-month high of 5.4% in April, exceeding expectations and driven by high food prices. The RBI is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting in June given low growth and inflation above the target rate of 5% for fiscal year 2017.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
Vietnam's meat market is growing rapidly due to rising incomes and population growth. While pork production meets domestic demand, there are shortages in beef and chicken. Geographical limitations, reliance on imported feed, and small farm sizes constrain sustainable livestock raising. Meat imports have doubled in four years, with bovine meat imports increasing four-fold and now accounting for 45% of total meat imports. While pork remains the most consumed meat, beef and poultry consumption are growing faster. Foreign meat producers have competitive advantages over local producers due to economies of scale and access to cheap feed. However, large Vietnamese companies adopting integrated production models from feed to retail are finding success in competing. The opening market presents opportunities for foreign investors but also challenges for
Gold futures rose over one percent in American trade away from December 29 lows as the dollar index fell from January 18 highs for the second session following earlier
Dr. Dermot J. Hayes - Pork Export OutlookJohn Blue
Pork Export Outlook - Dr. Dermot J. Hayes, Professor of Economics, Iowa State University, from the 2018 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 16 - 17, 2018, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-minnesota-pork-congress
Dr. Travis Arp - International View - Around the World in 90 Days - Policies ...John Blue
International View - Around the World in 90 Days - Policies Influencing Our Journey - Dr. Travis Arp, Manager of Technical Services, U.S. Meat Export Federation, from the 2015 Animal Agriculture Alliance Stakeholders Summit, The Journey to Extraordinary, May 6 - 7, 2015, Kansas City, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2015-the-journey-to-extraordinary
Global pork supplies are abundant but demand from China remains strong, driving up prices. While Chinese imports are surging and profits are high now, government regulations may slow expansion over time. The U.S. and EU face a dilemma as their production rises - China's demand will not increase indefinitely and new markets will be needed. Overall global demand is projected to grow with world population and incomes, but markets will fluctuate in the short-term as Chinese demand and expansion impacts supplies.
Brett Stuart - Understanding the Course - Opportunities in a Global MarketJohn Blue
Understanding the Course - Opportunities in a Global Market - Brett Stuart, Global AgriTrends, from the 2016 World Pork Expo, June 8 - 10, 2016, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2016-world-pork-expo
Dr. Dermot Hayes, Becca Nepple - U.S. Exports & International Trade - PORK Ac...John Blue
U.S. Exports & International Trade - PORK Academy - Dr. Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University; Becca Nepple, National Pork Board, from the 2017 World Pork Expo, June 7 - 9, 2017, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-world-pork-expo
Despite the relatively stable growing trend over the past few years, meat output has not managed to keep up with the consumption demand. Whilst domestic pork production is relatively sufficient for the domestic consumption demand, there is a significant shortage in the supply of beef and chicken.
For more information, please email vietnam.bc@ipsos.com
Presentation-Australian livestock export to China(2018)Alice L
The keynote address by Dr. Geoff Raby summarized China's strong economic growth and changing consumption patterns, opportunities for Australian agribusiness in China, and recommendations for capitalizing on those opportunities. Specifically, it noted that China's GDP and disposable incomes have more than tripled in recent years, driving growth in meat consumption. It also outlined Australia's significant trade relationship with China in livestock and beef. Dr. Raby recommended Australian agribusiness leverage government cooperation, expand to lower-tier cities, and engage with China's new digital economy.
The document summarizes the global outlook for the U.S. pork industry. It notes that while pork production is up in the U.S., export challenges remain due to currency exchange rates and trade barriers. A key opportunity is selling pork to China, but access depends on resolving issues around the use of ractopamine. The document forecasts that exports will hinge on whether the U.S. gains meaningful access to China and if the EU gains access to the Russian market.
Production of Bovine Meat in Vietnam – Opportunities for Exporting Thai Lives...Ha Thu
With the increased demand for meat of bovine animals (beef and buffalo meat), Vietnamese producers need to be more strategic in their plans in order to be proficient to supply local
demand. They also need to compete with foreign imports. Quantity of bovine meat per capita in Vietnam increased yearly by level of consumption. The Vietnam livestock industry has many weaknesses from production to marketing.
Mintec Market Price Movements report outlines important changes affecting key food ingredients and associated raw materials across global commodity markets and impacting procurement supply chains.
Becca Nepple, Dr. Dermot Hayes - U.S. Pork Exports- Situation & OutlookJohn Blue
U.S. Pork Exports- Situation & Outlook - Becca Nepple, National Pork Board; Dr. Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University, from the 2015 World Pork Expo, June 3 - 5, 2015, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-world-pork-expo
Brett Stuart - U.S. and Global Beef UpdateJohn Blue
U.S. and Global Beef Update - Brett Stuart, Global AgriTrend, from the 2014 Iowa Cattle Industry Convention, December 8 - 10, 2014, Des Moines IA, USA
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014-iowa-cattle-industry-convention
This document provides information about the poultry industry in South Africa. It details South Africa's population, GDP, unemployment levels, currency, and poultry association. It then summarizes South Africa's imports and exports of poultry products like broiler meat and eggs. It also discusses feed imports and exports. Finally, it outlines current issues like disease status and consumer consumption trends in the South African poultry industry.
Brett Stuart - Agriculture Economics Report and Thoughts on US / China Trade ...John Blue
Agriculture Economics Report and Thoughts on US / China Trade Future - Brett Stuart, Global AgriTrends, from the 2018 Midwest Pork Conference, December 4, 2018, Danville, IN, USA.
Mr. Sterling Liddell and Ms. Christine McCracken - Production Growth Ahead; C...John Blue
Production Growth Ahead; Competition Heats Up - Rabobank’s 2018 Pork/Animal Protein Outlook - Mr. Sterling Liddell and Ms. Christine McCracken, Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research, from the 2018 Missouri Pork Expo, February 6-7, 2018, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-missouri-pork-expo
The document discusses China's growing demand for imported beef and the opportunity this presents for Australian beef producers. It notes that China's beef consumption is projected to increase by over 70% by 2030, driven by rising incomes and urbanization. This will necessitate a 250% increase in beef imports to 3.8 million tonnes by 2030, representing a major opportunity for Australia which currently supplies over half of China's imports. However, Australia faces challenges in maintaining this market share given the need to significantly improve productivity to meet the doubling of export volumes required by 2030. Failure to boost productivity could result in $14 billion in lost export revenues.
Dr Dev Kambhampati | USDA- BRAZIL- Semi Annual Livestock & Products Report (2...Dr Dev Kambhampati
Post forecasts higher production of beef and pork in Brazil in 2014. Beef production is estimated to increase 2.5% to 9.9 million metric tons due to higher international demand and a small rise in domestic consumption. Pork production is forecast to grow 1.5% to 3.3 million metric tons, supported by record corn and soybean crops and expectations of increased exports and tourism-fueled domestic demand around the World Cup. Both beef and pork exports are expected to rise in 2014, helped by the weaker Brazilian real making Brazilian meat more competitive on world markets.
Food and associated commodity price movements for August 2019.
Enabling food procurement teams to track the impact of market price movements to reduce their raw material costs.
Jordan Hoewischer - OACI Farmer Certification ProgramJohn Blue
OACI Farmer Certification Program - Jordan Hoewischer, Ohio Farm Bureau, from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Fred Yoder - No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and IgnoranceJohn Blue
No-till and Climate Change: Fact, Fiction, and Ignorance - Fred Yoder, Former President, National Corn Growers Association, from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Dr. John Grove - Fifty Years Of No-till Research In KentuckyJohn Blue
Long-term no-till research can provide valuable insights into crop production over many seasons. This research found that no-till soils generally had higher yields than tilled soils over time. No-till soils had cooler temperatures, held more water after rain, and had different soil biological properties and nutrient stratification compared to tilled soils. The impacts of no-till and fertilizer nitrogen on soil organic carbon and crop yields changed over the 50 years of the study.
Dr. Warren Dick - Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962John Blue
Pioneering No-till Research Since 1962 - Dr. Warren Dick, OSU-OARDC (retired), from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Dr. Christine Sprunger - The role that roots play in building soil organic ma...John Blue
The role that roots play in building soil organic matter and soil health - Dr. Christine Sprunger, OSU - SENR, from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Dr. Leonardo Deiss - Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends afte...John Blue
Stratification, the Role of Roots, and Yield Trends after 60 years of No-till - Dr. Leonardo Deiss, OSU, from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Dr. Steve Culman - No-Till Yield Data AnalysisJohn Blue
No-Till Yield Data Analysis - Dr. Steve Culman, OSU Soil Fertility Extension Specialist, from the 2020 Conservation Tillage and Technology Conference, held March 3-4, 2020, Ada, OH, USA.
Alan Sundermeier and Dr. Vinayak Shedekar - Soil biological Response to BMPs John Blue
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Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
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Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
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Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
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Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
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Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
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Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
2. Pork trade in the year of the pig
• Global pork trade will set new records this year
• The degree to which the U.S. benefits will depend largely on tariffs
Four key areas:
• China – ASF & tariffs
• Europe – ASF & Brexit
• Mexico –tariffs
• Japan – Japan-U.S. urgency
• Strong demand remains in the rest of world,
But will be impacted by above & economy
3. A 10% drop in China’s production
means 4% decrease globally…
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Thousandmetrictons
Global Pork Production Others
Japan
Mexico
Korea, South
Philippines
Canada
Vietnam
Russia
Brazil
United States
European Union
China
Source: USDA/FAS fall 2018 & USMEF estimates
4. U.S. to continue to lead production
growth for top exporters
Source: USDA/FAS fall 2018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousandmt
Pork Production for Top Exporters
European Union
United States
Brazil
Canada
Mexico
Chile
5. In a scenario where China’s production drops by 10%,
exports to China could increase by 1.5 million mt
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f
Pork/pvm Exports to China/HK
Chile
Brazil
U.S.
Canada
EU28
6. Driving global pork trade to a record 9-10
million mt
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f
Metrictons
Global Pork & Variety Meat Exports, annual
China
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Canada
U.S.
EU28
Source: GTA and USMEF estimates
2019 is assuming a
10% drop in China’s
production; would
be similar to the shift
in 2016 trade
+17%
+18%
7. China already the largest importer of pork
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Metrictons
Pork & variety meat imports from all suppliers
2013 2017 2018e
8. Pork exports mostly flat outside China…
As growth across most markets has offset the loss of
Russia & Ukraine buying
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f
Metrictons
Pork & Variety Meats to Rest of World ex China/HK
Mexico
Chile
Brazil
Canada
U.S.
EU28
9. Drives a 10%-15% increase in total U.S.
exports vs. 5% baseline forecast
• The increase to China is 1.5 million mt, of which 900k mt can come from
the EU
• Drives EU exports to 4.45 million mt, +27%
• Canada’s growth could be constrained
• And the hedge against EU ASF …
favors U.S. growth
• Latin America
• Korea, Japan
• Southeast Asia
• U.S. 2019 export potential scenario… 2.75 million mt, +15%
*does not include HS 0504 variety meats
>>Retaliatory tariffs continue to
limit U.S. export opportunities
in China and Mexico
>>The “hole” in China’s
supplies might not materialize
until later in 2019, with a more
significant import surge in 2020
10. Slide with ChartAs of December, hog prices reflected abundant supplies
… and retaliatory tariffs
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Japan Korea Taiwan Vietnam China Mexico Chile EU Brazil U.S. Canada
U.S.$/lb.
Estimated Carcass Prices
Dec 5yr avg Dec-17 Dec-18
11. Slide with ChartU.S. futures now waiting for something
more tangible? China March 1 Deal?
14. Transportation of pork in China~ Boyar estimates
Yunnan
1100
Sichuan
-1150
Chongqing
-870
Guizhou
-190
Guangxi
140
Guangdong
-4480
Fujian
-630
Jiangxi
590
Zhejiang
-2070
Jiangsu
-1730Anhui
400
Liaoning
760
Hebei
930
Shandong
1360
Henan
2410
Hubei
1120
Hunan
1200
Beijing -580
Tianjin -390
Heilongjiang
580
Jilin
660
Inner Mongolia
60
Shanxi
-60
Shaanxi
40
Ningxia
-10
Gansu
-70
Qinghai
-30
Tibet
-30
Sinkiang
170
Import >100
In Balance: --100~100
Export: 100~490
Export: 500~990
Export: > 1000
Unit: 1,000 MT
Hainan
-90
In 2017, there were 16
provinces transported
pork out of the province,
a total of 11.53 million
MT.
There were 15 provinces
transported pork into the
province, a total of 13.54
million.
19. ASF in Eastern Europe
EU ASF-infected countries=
• 4.4 million mt pork
• 50 mil head slaughter
• 19% of EU 2017 production
• Poland, Hungary & Belgium
are/were major pork exporters
• Most major importers have
not recognized regionalization
for ASF and impose country-
wide import bans after
findings
20. ASF active
in January
• Domestic pigs:
Romania 22 plus a
couple cases in
Ukraine & Poland
• Wild boars: Poland
223, Hungary 95,
Latvia 70, Belgium
67, Lithuania 67,
Romania 44,
Estonia 24
Poland
Ukraine
RomaniaHungary
Belgium
Latvia
Lithuania
21. Europe’s cases mostly in wild boar; Romania
most active in domestic, backyard & large farms
1,163
109 105 51 10
170
2,438
41
1,443
161 138
685
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Romania Poland Ukraine Lithuania Belgium Hungary Latvia
cases
Cases of ASF in European Countries in 2018
Domestic Wild boar
Jan: 22 domestic;
44 wild boar
Jan: 1 domestic;
223 wild boar
Jan: 67 wild Jan: 95 wild Jan: 70 wildJan: 67 wildJan: 2
domestic
23. Europe’s big exporters mostly producing
more pork, except Germany
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Germany Spain Denmark Netherlands Poland France UK Ireland Hungary Others
Thousmetrictons
EU pork production by top exporters
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
24. EU exports continued to grow, without
access to Russia and despite ASF
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Metrictons
EU pork & pork variety meat exports to top markets
Others
Russia
Taiwan
Australia
United States
Hong Kong
Korea, South
ASEAN
Japan
China
Source: GTA and USMEF estimates
25. Especially to Asia…they remain key supplier to
China and China is by far their biggest market
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
China Japan ASEAN Korea,
South
Hong Kong United
States
Australia Taiwan Russia Others
Metrictons
EU pork & pork variety meat exports to top markets
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Source: GTA and USMEF estimates
26. EU pig prices remain low…waiting for the
China buying
• With sharp increase in pork
production (Jan-Oct 2018 +2.7%)
• Sluggish intra-EU demand and
relatively steady exports
Risks for their production:
• ASF, high feed prices, low hog prices
• 2019F is for steady production
27. A bit of a rebound in EU piglet prices
US$48/head
28. Brexit and increasing odds for crashing out could
have a big impact on over 1 million tons of pork trade
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
UK pork imports UK pork exports
Metrictons
UK Pork Trade
2016 2017 2018e
Net UK imports from EU member
states of about $2 billion
$2.5 billion
$610 million
29. Canada’s exports slow to China & U.S. but growth
to Japan, Mexico, elsewhere in Asia
-11%
-11%
+7%
+23%
-1% +31% +20%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
China, Hong
Kong
United States Japan Mexico Taiwan S. Korea Philippines Others
MetricTons
Canada’s pork & variety meat exports
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Source: GTA
2018: 1.15 MMT, -2.5%
China/HK accounted for 24% of Canada export volume, down from 29% in 2016
30. U.S. pork and variety meat exports managed
to set new records in 2018
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
BillionUSD
MetricTons
MT USD
Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF; fall 2018 forecasts
Pork exports
accounted for 22.7%
of production and
26.1% when adding
variety meats as
compared to 22.1%
and 26.5% last year.
Jan – Sep export value
per head averaged
$52.46/head, down
$0.32/head or -1%
31. Top 2018 U.S. Export Growth Markets…
the silver lining
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Korea S.
America
ASEAN C.
America
Caribb. Aus/NZ Japan Taiwan Mexico TOTAL
MetricTons
Year-over-Year U.S. Pork Export Growth
Jan - September
Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF
32. Mostly continued growth from 2017, but note
the dramatic slowdown to Mexico & China
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Korea S.
America
ASEAN C.
America
Caribb. Aus/NZ Japan Taiwan Mexico TOTAL China/HK Canada
MetricTons
Year-over-Year U.S. Pork Export Growth
Jan – September 2017 and 2018
Jan-Sept '17 Jan-Sept '18
Source: USDA/FAS & USMEF
33. Loss summary: impact of retaliatory duties following
U.S. Section 232 (China & Mexico) & 301 tariffs (China)
• U.S. ham primal -19% or -$6.63 per head
• U.S. picnic primal -22% or -$3.32 per head
• Loss in ham + picnic value = -$9.95 per head
• Front & hind feet & picnic hocks = -$1.80 per head
• Hams + picnics + feet lost value = -$11.75 per head
• $860 million when spread across June-Dec harvest
• Lost market share & customer efforts to diversify
• U.S. as a reliable supplier????
34. Mexico’s pork imports record-large again
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Metrictons
Exports of pork/pvm to Mexico
EU28
Chile
Canada
U.S.
U.S. includes HS 0504 variety meats
U.S. market share dropped
from 87% to 85%
35. Mexico’s hog prices have remained strong
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
U.S.$/lb
Live Hog Prices in Mexico & U.S.
Through Dec 2018
Mexico U.S.
36. With a strong finish to 2018 as tariffs
remained on U.S. pork
37. Mexico’s efforts to diversify suppliers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Metrictons
Pork exports to Mexico, excluding variety meats
Canada EU
TRQ use: 6,430 mt/
350,000 mt
Canada
EU
38. Growth in Mexico’s pork exports…CPTPP
Source: Global Trade Atlas
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e
Metrictons
Mexico’s Annual Exports, including variety meats
Others
Canada
China
S. Korea
U.S.
Japan
39. U.S. - Japan trade agreement
• Urgency: all is not yet lost, but we are now way behind
• Japanese market booming / in transition
• Companies looking to invest for future – noting decrease in
Japanese production expected, high labor costs, etc.
• Expect continued growth in Japanese red meat consumption and
imports accounting for a larger share of the market
• Need assurance that U.S. will be FTA/TAG partner soon
• What is the reality for rapid progress / agreement scope?
• Exporter priorities conveyed to USTR= level playing field ASAP
• Near-term loss estimates: $600 million pork and $550 million beef
… lost opportunities exceed $1 billion each in 10 years
• http://www.usmef.org/usmef-assesses-potential-pork-and-beef-
industry-losses-due-to-japans-preferential-trade-agreements/
40. “Niku Boom” Japan imports record volumes of
pork (>$5 billion)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metrictons
Japan’s Pork & Variety Meat Imports
Others
Chile
Mexico
Canada
EU-28
United States
Total imports: 1.16 mil mt, +0.5%;
U.S.: 407,000 mt, steady
U.S. market share held at 35%
41. Japan’s imports of U.S. pork
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
chilled frozen gsp other processed
Metrictons
Japan’s U.S. pork imports by category
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Tariffs on
competitor’s
processed pork
phasing to zero
43. Initial tariff reductions on implementation (Dec 30 for CPTPP
and Feb 1 for EU) and again at start of JFY, April 1, 2019
4.30%
20.00%
10.00%
9%
2.20%
16.60%
8.30%
4.30%
1.96%
13.30%
6.60%
4.30%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Chilled/frozen pork Prepared pork Sausages Ham & Bacon
Advaloremduty
Japan’s Tariffs on Pork Imports
U.S. CPTPP & EU Implementation CPTPP & EU April 1, 2019
Zero by
2023
Zero by
2028
Source: USMEF and agreement text
Tariffs are eliminated by
2023 for prepared pork
& sausages; and by
2027-2028 for
chilled/frozen pork and
ham & bacon
Zero by
2027
Zero by
2023
45. Korea also importing record volumes of
pork; largest growth market for U.S.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metrictons
Korea’s Pork & Variety Meat Imports
Mexico
Chile
Canada
United States
EU-28
Total imports: 600,000 mt, +17%;
U.S.: 212,000 mt, +30%
U.S. market share increased from
31.6% to 35%
46. Korea producing & importing more pork
most imports duty-free
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Thousmetrictons
Korea’s Pork Situation
Dom production Imports U.S. SS rate
48. Summary
• It will be another wild year, with trade driven by forces out of our
control: disease and tariffs
• But U.S. exports will be record-large, barring our own crisis
• Degree to which U.S. is able to supply the world depends on U.S.
trade policy
• All pork producers globally are looking to sell more to China
• China’s supply “hole” will be partly offset by reduced
consumption and larger imports of pork, poultry, beef, sheep- the
big import surge might not happen until late 2019-2020
• Mexico’s domestic pork industry is growing – permanent damage
• Japan’s pork imports will continue to set new records, with growth
going to our competitors until we get a trade agreement
49.
50. Thank You…and Happy Year of the Pig!
Erin Borror
eborror@usmef.org
303-623-6328
www.usmef.org
52. Slide with ChartIts all about Korean consumption growth
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f
Korean per capita pork “consumption”
domestic per capita imported per capita U.S. per capita
53. Chilled pork…and GSP driving the growth in
Japan’s imports
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
chilled frozen gsp other processed
Japan’s pork imports by category
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019f
54. Mexico buying more from Canada and EU; less from
U.S., at lower prices
• Based on reported exports to Mexico, U.S. market share fell
from 87% to 81% in June-Oct (2017 vs. 2018)
• U.S. pork exports to Mexico decreased by $111 million in Jun-
Oct; although volume fell 4%, value decreased by 21%
• Canada’s pork/pvm exports to Mexico: July (12,200 mt, +24%),
Aug (11,685 mt, +26%), Sept (12,500 mt, +42%), Oct (12,157 mt,
+48%), Nov (12,456 mt, +30%)
• EU pork exports to Mexico surged in July (1,809 mt, +747%),
August (2,343 mt, +733%), Sept (1,634 mt, +323%), Oct (1,191
mt, +300%)
• U.S. ham primal -19%
• U.S. picnic primal -22% (June-Dec 2018 vs. year earlier)
• On a per head basis, hams = loss of $6.63 and for picnics a loss
of $3.32 for a combined decrease in per-head values of $9.95.
60. Record Large Global Pork Production
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Thousandmetrictons
Global Pork Production Others
Japan
Mexico
Korea, South
Philippines
Canada
Vietnam
Russia
Brazil
United States
European Union
China
Source: USDA/FAS fall 2018 & USMEF estimates
64. Partly due to domestic policies and closure to most imports,
Russia’s pork production has grown despite ASF
• Russia’s exports are mainly variety meats to Hong Kong and
Vietnam; cuts to Ukraine and Belarus
Russia pork Production Imports Exports Per Cap Cons.
2007 1,640,000 900,000 1,000 17.9 kg
2018 3,235,000 58,000 85,000 22.5 kg
Percent change
+97% -94% +26%
Source: USDA/FAS, GTA and USMEF estimates
How many of you expect record exports this year?
Due to China?
Producer profits for the last couple of years drove expansion around the world, in top import markets and in top export markets
Already trending lower but need to make up ~ 2 kg from other meats assuming 10% production drop
Biggest producers: Germany 5.5 mmt, Spain 4.25 mmt, France 2.2 mmt, Poland >2 mmt, Denmark/Italy/Netherlands each about 1.5 mmt
Belgium 1.05 mmt
Largely driven by China’s buying, 2011 global exports increased by 920,000 mt; 2016 could look similar with a forecast for over 1 mmt shown
2014 high prices for PEDv
Producer profits for the last couple of years drove expansion around the world, in top import markets and in top export markets
East Asia and Pacific: Growth in the region is forecast to slip to 6.2 percent in 2018 from an estimated 6.4 percent in 2017. A structural slowdown in China is seen offsetting a modest cyclical pickup in the rest of the region. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced. Stronger-than-expected growth among advanced economies could lead to faster-than-anticipated growth in the region. On the downside, rising geopolitical tension, increased global protectionism, an unexpectedly abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, and steeper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, including China, pose downside risks to the regional outlook. Growth in China is forecast to moderate to 6.4 percent in 2018 from 6.8 percent in 2017. Indonesia is forecast to accelerate to 5.3 percent in 2018 from 5.1 percent in 2017.