Australian livestock event

1. 2017 LIVEXchange Conference
Keynote Address
Dr. Geoff Raby
Former Australian Ambassador to China
Chairman and CEO of Geoff Raby & Associates Ltd

2. Adapting to Succeed: Australian M&L in China
1. 19th Communist Party Congress
2. China’s economic performance and outlook
3. Market Analysis: China’s international M&L market
4. Recommendations

3. 19th Communist Party Congress

4. China’s Economic Performance and Outlook

5. China’s Economic Performance and Outlook
Rapid changes in incomes and consumption
GDP more than tripled from 2007-2016:
• $3.5t USD to $11.2t USD
From 2012-2016:
• Disposable income up 44% to $3580USD per capita (p.c.)
• Consumption expenditure up 33% to $2577USD p.c.
• F&B expenditure up 21% to $776USD p.c.

6. China’s Economic Performance and Outlook
Rapid changes in incomes and consumption
Retail value of meat market (2011-2016):
• Grew 37% to $169b USD; further 24% growth by 2020
• Beef & veal market: further 34% growth to $26b USD by 2020

7. China’s Economic Performance and Outlook
Population growth and urbanisation
• Population growth of 70 million from 2005-2015
• Urban population ratio up from 42% to to 56%
• Increasingly rapid and interconnected transportation network

8. China’s Economic Performance and Outlook
E-Commerce to drive 42% of total consumption growth by 2020

9. Market Analysis: China and Australia
In 2016, China was Australia’s:
• 3rd largest livestock market ($129m USD)
• 4th largest beef market by volume (94,000 tonnes, $565m USD)
ChAFTA signed June 2015:
• 10% tax on beef imports removed by 2020
Bright future: growing demand and industry infrastructure

10. Market Analysis: China and Australia
Major cattle and beef producing provinces:
• Henan
• Shandong
• Inner Mongolia
• Sichuan
Major beef importing provinces:
• Shandong
• Hebei
• Zhejiang
Qingdao’s beef and veal imports doubled to $96m USD in 2015

11. Market Analysis: China’s International Market
China’s domestic supply outpaced by demand
• $51.b imports of ‘food and animals used for food’ (2015)
In 2016, Australia was China’s:
• Top import origin for live cattle ($129m USD, 70% share)
• 4th largest import origin for meat and meat offal ($755m USD)
• 2nd largest import origin for sheep and goat meat ($573m USD)

12. Market Analysis: China’s International Market

13. Recommendations
• G to G cooperation
• From Tier-One to Tier-Two cities
• Leveraging the new economy

14. From Australia to China
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