Beef Pork Broiler
MMT Global Meat and Broiler Production
2015 IS NOT 2014
Mood and Money
• Does crude matter?
• Petro-economies as importers (Africa and
Middle East nations)
• PEDv a non-issue, ABUNDANT pork & poultry
• Poultry breeding flock expansion
• Strong dollar pulling imports/hindering
• 45+ million birds affected
– 3% of turkeys, 11% of layers, <.0001% of broilers
• Virus now coming under control
– Assisted by warmer temps
– But what about fall/winter (when birds fly south)
• But trade bans are problematic
– China (and lesser others) banned all U.S. poultry
– Roughly 40+ others banning states, or counties
– MEXICO: allowing U.S. poultry for processing
– Estimated 17% of 2014 broiler export access now
Source: World Pork Import Report, Feb. 28, 2015, GTIS,
• Ractopamine is an FDA-approved and Codex
recommended compound that adds $2-
4/head benefit for pork producers ($220-440
• China is the largest and potentially largest
pork export market on earth with enormous
market diversity and opportunities
• China has a zero-tolerance for ractopamine
Even more complicated by…
• An impending pork gap is building in China as
as many as 9 million sows have been
liquidated over the past 19 months
• Prices will rise, import demand will surge
• Remember 2008/2011
– China/HK bought 6% of our entire pork production
for 4 months in the fall of 2011
– U.S. prices surged
• U.S. pork production is up +7% YTD; forecast
+6% for 2015
Source: China Ministry of Agriculture (calculated based on y/y percentage
changes by AgriTrends)
Source: Average of various Chinese market reports
U.S. Pork to China
The China Pork Paradox:
Forego the largest pork market on earth, or
bow to non-scientific barriers that reduce U.S.
• This is a “theoretical debate”
• Is the customer always right?
• Is this a “slippery slope”?
• Are we entering a new phase of “customer-
driven trade policy”?
With larger domestic production, and export
challenges, EXPORTS HINGE ON:
• CHINA: Will the U.S. have meaningful access,
and if not, how much EU pork will be pulled
away from Japan, Korea, and others?
• RUSSIA: Will EU pork be allowed (ASF ban)?
And will the food import ban be lifted (main
impact – Canada)?
Trade Policy Acronyms
– The clock is ticking…
• TPA: Trade Promotion Authority
– TAA: Trade Adjustment Assistance – precursor
needed, next step, by end of July?
• TPP: Trans Pacific Partnership
– Will progress quickly once TPA is granted
– Could be HUGE for U.S. pork longer term
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