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On paradoxes, robots and
autonomous systems -
conceptual model or losing
control?
Speaker: Opher Etzion
Asimov coined the
axioms for robotics.
These are the assertions
that every robot must
obey
3
4
5
The Autonomous Car
Paradox
) based on article in
Scientific American)
OUTLINE:
1. On Paradox, contradiction and logic
2. On Autonomous Systems
3. On dillemas
6
1. On Paradoxes
2. On Autonomous Systems
3. On Dilemmas
OUTLINE:
OUTLINE:
1. On Paradox, contradiction and logic
2. On Autonomous Systems
3. On dillemas
7
On Paradoxes
8
Paradoxes: Let’s go
to the basics…
9
Russell’s paradox:
The Barber
version
10
Bibliographies
that quote
themselves
Bibliographies
that don’t quote
themselves
Russell’s paradox:
The Librarian
version
11
These are the assertions
that every model must
obey
12
13
14
The Heap
Paradox
15
Zenon’s Paradox
16
The man from
Mars allegory
Nuel Belnap
What is the color
of this desk?
17
Is the desk RED ?
Sure...
18
Not really.
This
desk is
YELLOW
Is the desk RED ?
19
I don’t
have a
clue
Is the desk RED ?
20
This desk
is
GREEN
This desk
is RED
Is the desk RED ?
21
Nuel Belnap
The man from
Mars allegory
22
Fuzzy Logic
On Autonomous
Systems
23
Autonomous systems – analogy to human thinking
Sensing
Making
sense of
what we
sense
Real Time
Decision
Making
Acting
24
IoT and robotics
Robots serve as intelligent actuators – and
are becoming autonomous
25
Healthcare robotics
Rehabilitation robots: enhancing patients
with motoric and cognitive skills
Assistive robots: Robots for independent
living of disabled persons
26
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
Automated assistance of monitored
patients
27
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
Help in sit-to-stand and sit-down actions
for people with motor disabilities
28
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
Autonomous moving of drugs and medical
equipment within the hospital
29
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
Support of medical staff in various
activities
30
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
People movement and movement monitoring
31
Some future healthcare
robotics applications
People assistance in panic and danger
situations
32
I(
The classical use of robots are for
industrial purposes: production,
machinery control, product design…
Industrial Robots
33
I(
Autonomic management and coordination of
production activities among multiple
robots
Industrial Robots and
IoT
34
I(
Autonomous management of equipment and
instruments
Industrial Robots and
IoT
35
I(
Immediate reaction to critical situations
such as: high temperature, harmful
chemicals in the air
Industrial Robots and
IoT
36
I(
Autonomic control of electrical and energy
plants
Industrial Robots and
IoT
37
Robotics for defense
Robots are used for unmanned tools
(ground and air) for transport and
intelligence , threat detection and combat
38
Robotics for defense and IoT
Autonomous and smart detection of
harmful chemicals and biological weapons
39
Robotics for defense and IoT
Autonomic control of land vehicles and
aircrafts
40
Robotics for defense and IoT
Identification and access prevention of
suspicious people intruding to sensitive
places
41
Robotics for defense and IoT
Rescue trapped people
42
Smart pacemaker
A pacemaker is a
small device
that's placed in
the chest or
abdomen to
help control
abnormal heart
rhythms. This
device uses
electrical
pulses to
prompt the
heart to beat
at a normal
rate.
Implants for cardiovascular diseases
source:
https://www.cambridgeconsultants.com/media
/press-releases/setting-pace
43
Sensors and
actuators –
technology still
under
development
Goal:
to improve insulin
replacement
therapy until
glycemic
control is
practically
normal, and to
ease the
burden of
therapy for the
insulin-
dependent.
Implants for diabetes patients
Source:
https://www.slideshare.net/energexsystems/p
ancreas-presentation
Dilemmas
44
45
Causality
In order to derive conclusions from facts
and events there is a need to identify
causalities.
Statistical methods can infer correlations.
Causality inference is more tricky….
46
Causal inference
How the knowledge about causality is being
acquired?
Expert knowledge
Statistical inference
Inference using semantic or association net
Necessity? and relevance?
47
Dangers of using correlation as causality
indicator
Correlation between A and B:
1. A causes B
2. B causes A
3. There is C which causes both A and B
4. A combination of all three
interpretations
The faster windmills are observed to
rotate, the more wind is observed to be.
Therefore wind is caused by the rotation of
windmills.
48
Dangers of using correlation as causality
indicator
Correlation between A and B:
1. A causes B
2. B causes A
3. There is C which causes both A and B
4. A combination of all three
interpretations
Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly
correlated with waking up with a
headache.
Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on
causes headache.
(correct answer: going to bad drunk causes
both)
49
Dangers of using correlation as causality
indicator
Correlation between A and B:
1. A causes B
2. B causes A
3. There is C which causes both A and B
4. A combination of all three
interpretations
As ice cream sales increase, the rate of
drowning deaths increases sharply.
Therefore, ice cream consumption causes
drowning. (real answer: they are both in
the same context – summer).
False positives and negatives
False positive:
The pattern is matched;
The real-world situation
does not occur
False negative:
The pattern is not matched;
The real-world situation
occurs
Learning
from
experience
51
Sensing can be noisy
What are we uncertain of?
Uncertain whether a reported
event has occurred (e.g.
accident)
Uncertain what really
happened. What is the type
and magnitude of the
accident (vehicles involved,
casualties)
Uncertain when an event
occurred (will occur): timing
of forecasted congestion
Uncertain where an event
occurred (will occur):
location of forecasted
congestion
Uncertain about the level of
causality between a car
heading towards highway
and a car getting into the
highway
Uncertain about the accuracy
of a sensor input: count of
cars, velocity of cars…
The pattern: more
than 100 cars
approach an area
within 5 minutes after
an accident derives a
congestion forecasting
Uncertain about the validity
of a forecasting pattern
Uncertain about the quality
of the decision about traffic
lights setting
Sources of uncertainty
Uncertain
input data/
Events
Source
Malfunction
Thermomete
r
Human error
Malicious
Source
Fake tweet
Sensor
disrupter
Projection
of temporal
anomalies
Wrong hourly
sales summary
Source
Inaccuracy
Sampling
or
approximation
Propagation
of
uncertainty
Visual data
Rumor
Wrong trend
Inference based
on uncertain
value
54
Defense Robots
Unmanned aerial vehicle – Robots that are
being employed for logistics, intelligence,
and combat
In reality –
Asimov’s axioms
were not
adopted
55
What
would you
do?
BACK TO:
The Autonomous Car
Paradox
) based on article in
Scientific American)
56
Deep Learning is taking
over autonomous
systems
Autonomous systems are equipped with
self-learning capabilities. This creates a
situation where the actual algorithm
behind their activities is not transparent
57
Murder by the Internet
“With so many devices being Internet connected, it makes murdering
people remotely relatively simple, at least from a technical
perspective. That’s horrifying,” said IID president and CTO Rod
Rasmussen. “Killings can be carried out with a significantly lower
chance of getting caught, much less convicted, and if human history
shows us anything, if you can find a new way to kill, it will be
eventually be used.”
EXAMPLES: Turn off pacemakers, Shutdown car systems while
driving, stop IV drip from functioning
Safe vs. connected
58
The Singularity
Dillema
59
Who will move to the next phase of evolution?
60
Implications on social
equality
Will the majority of humanity stay
behind?
61
The Solaria Paradox
||autonomous systems|| >>
||human beings||
62
Progress vs.
Employability
What will be the purpose in life? How
should the time be spent?
63
Maybe Asimov was right
and the galaxy should be
controlled by a smart
robot?

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ER 2017 tutorial - On Paradoxes, Autonomous Systems and dilemmas

  • 1. On paradoxes, robots and autonomous systems - conceptual model or losing control? Speaker: Opher Etzion
  • 2. Asimov coined the axioms for robotics. These are the assertions that every robot must obey
  • 3. 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. 5 The Autonomous Car Paradox ) based on article in Scientific American)
  • 6. OUTLINE: 1. On Paradox, contradiction and logic 2. On Autonomous Systems 3. On dillemas 6 1. On Paradoxes 2. On Autonomous Systems 3. On Dilemmas OUTLINE:
  • 7. OUTLINE: 1. On Paradox, contradiction and logic 2. On Autonomous Systems 3. On dillemas 7 On Paradoxes
  • 10. 10 Bibliographies that quote themselves Bibliographies that don’t quote themselves Russell’s paradox: The Librarian version
  • 11. 11 These are the assertions that every model must obey
  • 12. 12
  • 13. 13
  • 16. 16 The man from Mars allegory Nuel Belnap What is the color of this desk?
  • 17. 17 Is the desk RED ? Sure...
  • 19. 19 I don’t have a clue Is the desk RED ?
  • 20. 20 This desk is GREEN This desk is RED Is the desk RED ?
  • 21. 21 Nuel Belnap The man from Mars allegory
  • 23. 23 Autonomous systems – analogy to human thinking Sensing Making sense of what we sense Real Time Decision Making Acting
  • 24. 24 IoT and robotics Robots serve as intelligent actuators – and are becoming autonomous
  • 25. 25 Healthcare robotics Rehabilitation robots: enhancing patients with motoric and cognitive skills Assistive robots: Robots for independent living of disabled persons
  • 26. 26 Some future healthcare robotics applications Automated assistance of monitored patients
  • 27. 27 Some future healthcare robotics applications Help in sit-to-stand and sit-down actions for people with motor disabilities
  • 28. 28 Some future healthcare robotics applications Autonomous moving of drugs and medical equipment within the hospital
  • 29. 29 Some future healthcare robotics applications Support of medical staff in various activities
  • 30. 30 Some future healthcare robotics applications People movement and movement monitoring
  • 31. 31 Some future healthcare robotics applications People assistance in panic and danger situations
  • 32. 32 I( The classical use of robots are for industrial purposes: production, machinery control, product design… Industrial Robots
  • 33. 33 I( Autonomic management and coordination of production activities among multiple robots Industrial Robots and IoT
  • 34. 34 I( Autonomous management of equipment and instruments Industrial Robots and IoT
  • 35. 35 I( Immediate reaction to critical situations such as: high temperature, harmful chemicals in the air Industrial Robots and IoT
  • 36. 36 I( Autonomic control of electrical and energy plants Industrial Robots and IoT
  • 37. 37 Robotics for defense Robots are used for unmanned tools (ground and air) for transport and intelligence , threat detection and combat
  • 38. 38 Robotics for defense and IoT Autonomous and smart detection of harmful chemicals and biological weapons
  • 39. 39 Robotics for defense and IoT Autonomic control of land vehicles and aircrafts
  • 40. 40 Robotics for defense and IoT Identification and access prevention of suspicious people intruding to sensitive places
  • 41. 41 Robotics for defense and IoT Rescue trapped people
  • 42. 42 Smart pacemaker A pacemaker is a small device that's placed in the chest or abdomen to help control abnormal heart rhythms. This device uses electrical pulses to prompt the heart to beat at a normal rate. Implants for cardiovascular diseases source: https://www.cambridgeconsultants.com/media /press-releases/setting-pace
  • 43. 43 Sensors and actuators – technology still under development Goal: to improve insulin replacement therapy until glycemic control is practically normal, and to ease the burden of therapy for the insulin- dependent. Implants for diabetes patients Source: https://www.slideshare.net/energexsystems/p ancreas-presentation
  • 45. 45 Causality In order to derive conclusions from facts and events there is a need to identify causalities. Statistical methods can infer correlations. Causality inference is more tricky….
  • 46. 46 Causal inference How the knowledge about causality is being acquired? Expert knowledge Statistical inference Inference using semantic or association net Necessity? and relevance?
  • 47. 47 Dangers of using correlation as causality indicator Correlation between A and B: 1. A causes B 2. B causes A 3. There is C which causes both A and B 4. A combination of all three interpretations The faster windmills are observed to rotate, the more wind is observed to be. Therefore wind is caused by the rotation of windmills.
  • 48. 48 Dangers of using correlation as causality indicator Correlation between A and B: 1. A causes B 2. B causes A 3. There is C which causes both A and B 4. A combination of all three interpretations Sleeping with one's shoes on is strongly correlated with waking up with a headache. Therefore, sleeping with one's shoes on causes headache. (correct answer: going to bad drunk causes both)
  • 49. 49 Dangers of using correlation as causality indicator Correlation between A and B: 1. A causes B 2. B causes A 3. There is C which causes both A and B 4. A combination of all three interpretations As ice cream sales increase, the rate of drowning deaths increases sharply. Therefore, ice cream consumption causes drowning. (real answer: they are both in the same context – summer).
  • 50. False positives and negatives False positive: The pattern is matched; The real-world situation does not occur False negative: The pattern is not matched; The real-world situation occurs Learning from experience
  • 52. What are we uncertain of? Uncertain whether a reported event has occurred (e.g. accident) Uncertain what really happened. What is the type and magnitude of the accident (vehicles involved, casualties) Uncertain when an event occurred (will occur): timing of forecasted congestion Uncertain where an event occurred (will occur): location of forecasted congestion Uncertain about the level of causality between a car heading towards highway and a car getting into the highway Uncertain about the accuracy of a sensor input: count of cars, velocity of cars… The pattern: more than 100 cars approach an area within 5 minutes after an accident derives a congestion forecasting Uncertain about the validity of a forecasting pattern Uncertain about the quality of the decision about traffic lights setting
  • 53. Sources of uncertainty Uncertain input data/ Events Source Malfunction Thermomete r Human error Malicious Source Fake tweet Sensor disrupter Projection of temporal anomalies Wrong hourly sales summary Source Inaccuracy Sampling or approximation Propagation of uncertainty Visual data Rumor Wrong trend Inference based on uncertain value
  • 54. 54 Defense Robots Unmanned aerial vehicle – Robots that are being employed for logistics, intelligence, and combat In reality – Asimov’s axioms were not adopted
  • 55. 55 What would you do? BACK TO: The Autonomous Car Paradox ) based on article in Scientific American)
  • 56. 56 Deep Learning is taking over autonomous systems Autonomous systems are equipped with self-learning capabilities. This creates a situation where the actual algorithm behind their activities is not transparent
  • 57. 57 Murder by the Internet “With so many devices being Internet connected, it makes murdering people remotely relatively simple, at least from a technical perspective. That’s horrifying,” said IID president and CTO Rod Rasmussen. “Killings can be carried out with a significantly lower chance of getting caught, much less convicted, and if human history shows us anything, if you can find a new way to kill, it will be eventually be used.” EXAMPLES: Turn off pacemakers, Shutdown car systems while driving, stop IV drip from functioning Safe vs. connected
  • 59. 59 Who will move to the next phase of evolution?
  • 60. 60 Implications on social equality Will the majority of humanity stay behind?
  • 61. 61 The Solaria Paradox ||autonomous systems|| >> ||human beings||
  • 62. 62 Progress vs. Employability What will be the purpose in life? How should the time be spent?
  • 63. 63 Maybe Asimov was right and the galaxy should be controlled by a smart robot?