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![Sample guide for setting goals in animal health [Table adopted from (World Organisation for Animal
Health, 2014)]
CONTROL PROGRAM OUTCOME, OUTPUTS, ACTIVITIES
Outcome is what had previously been termed “objective/s”. However the current approach is to have
only one outcome defined in one brief statement which describes the change that the project is expected
to generate in the target group. The outcome is the result of outputs which are the result of activities.
Outcome ___________
Output 1. ___________
Activity 1.1. __________
Activity 1.2. __________
Output 2. ___________
Activity 2.1. __________
Activity 2.2. __________](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/episeminarws-160527001617/75/Episeminarws-10-2048.jpg)
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- 1. Animal Disease Control Preparedby: Noemi Diloy- Encarnacion, DVM, MVetEpi Session objectives: At the end of this topic, the participants should be able to: • Assess the importance of local diseases based on selected criteria; • Distinguish prevention, control and eradication; and • Describe the various strategies for animal disease control. Disease control programs are essential for the reduction, elimination or eradication of animal and poultry diseases and the prevention of the introduction or outbreak of foreign or domestic diseases. Definitions Prevention- refers to measures designed to prevent disease occurrence. Disease control- reduction of the prevalence of a disease to a level where it is no longer considered a major health and/or economic problem. Goals are: o Reduce mortality o Reduce morbidity Disease elimination- this is the near eradication stage; it is the stage between disease control and disease eradication status. The goal is to reduce the disease to a level that it has become a minor health problem. WHO (1991) defines it as “reduction of prevalence to a level below one case per million population.” Eradication- total elimination of a disease. Achieved by eliminating the reservoir or source of the agent, severing the transmission chain or making the hosts immune to the disease. WHO describes this stage as having “no further cases of a disease occurring anywhere, and continued control measures are unnecessary.” How do you know a good disease control officer? 1. He/she knows how to make a “priority” list. 2. He/she responds quickly 3. He/she can mobilize the right persons for the task: diagnose, control, and monitor disease problems. 4. He/she can control the disease with the least cost. Choose the diseases to control Public Health Significance Impact on the livestock industry 1. What zoonotic diseases occur more frequently? 2. What zoonotic diseases cause severe sickness in humans? 3. Present mortality and morbidity rates 1. How easily is the disease transmitted from farm to farm? 2. What are the losses due to morbidity? 3. What are the losses due to mortality? 4. What are the effects on trade and commerce?
- 2. Prioritization Items are rankedin order based on their “perceived or measured importance or significance”. Make the best use of limited human and financial resources A. Simplex: Group perceptions are obtained by the use of questionnaires. B. Nominal Group planning: Panel of experts is formed and individual judgments must be tapped and combined to arrive at decisions which cannot be determined by one person. C. Criteria Weighting Method: Mathematical process whereby participants establish a relevant set of criteria and assign a priority ranking to issues based on how they measure against the criteria. The calculated values do not necessarily dictate the final policy decision, but offer a means by which choices can be ordered. Examples of Prioritization Techniques (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
- 3. DISEASE PRIORITIZATION TOOL ScoreCo- eff Total DISEASE KNOWLEDGE - 10 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Speed of spread None Non transmissible Very slow Low lev el of transmission within holdings and unlikely between holdings Slow Slow transmission between holdings with or without animal mov ements Medium Rapid transmission between holdings with or without animal mov ements High Rapid transmission between holdings without animal mov ements 2.5 Number of liv estock species inv olv ed One ND or expected to be limited Limited 2 species Medium 3 species11 High 4 species and ov er 2.5 Persistence of the inf ectious agent in the env ironment No Nev er Found Rare Occasionally f ound ND if unknown Constant Animal reserv oir or v ector Not remov able f rom the env ironment 2.5 Risk of spread to susceptible populations No Not contagious Low Transmissible direct contact ND if unknown Medium Indirect contact, contagion High Airborne inf ection 2.5 Potential f or silent spread None Negligible Signs of inf ection easily recognised and likely to occur in animal under superv ision Low Signs of inf ection easily recognised but depends on the lev el of superv ision Moderate Specif ic diagnosis may be dif f icult in one or more species High Disease/inf ection not likely to be detected f or some time 2.5 Wildlif e reserv oir and potential spread Negligible No known wildlif e reserv oir Minor Prev alence in remote wildlif e Moderate Wildlif e reserv oir: no direct contact with humans or domestic animals Signif icant Wildlif e reserv oir Serious Wildlif e reserv oir in close contact with humans and/or domestic animals 2.5
- 4. Vector reserv oirand potential spread None No known v ector or reserv oir Low Competent v ector(s) thought to exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection Medium Competent v ector(s) exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection High Competent v ector(s) exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing but could transmit inf ection Very High Competent v ector(s) exist in the country and is (are) capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection 2.5 Variability of the agent Negligible One ty pe, stable host/v ector Low Few ty pes, not mutating, stable host/v ector Moderate Few ty pes, not mutating, low host specif icity , stable v ector if any High Numerous ty pes or mutating, low host or v ector specif icity Very High Numerous ty pes and mutating, low host or v ector specif icity 2.5 Understanding of f undamental immunology Fully understood, both humoral and cellular immunity Fully understand humoral immunity and partial understanding of cellular immunity Partially understand humoral and cellular immunity Partially understand humoral immunity None Nothing known about the immunology 2.5 Host-Pathogen interaction Fully understand the host-pathogen interactions Understand some aspects of the host and pathogen interactions Partially understand the host-pathogen interactions Little understanding of the host-pathogen interactions No inf ormation 2.5 IMPACT ON ANIMAL HEALTH AND WELFARE - 3 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Disease impact on production None Production not af f ected Very low Some loss of production but no major impact on income Low Production reduced by less than 20%. Major loss of income Medium Production reduced by more than 20%. Major loss of income Sev ere Production reduced by more than 50%. Major loss of income and v iability of industry threatened 8.33 Duration of animal welf are impact None No impact Transcient Impact less than 48 hours Short Term 48 hours to 13 day s Medium term 15 day s to 24 months Permanent Greater than 24 months 8.33
- 5. Proportion of animalaf f ected suf f ering pain/ injury / distress as a result of the disease None No animal af f ected Very low <5% of animals suf f er serious impact Low 6-20% of animals suf f er serious impact Medium 21 to 50% of animals suf f er serious impact Serious >50% of animals suf f er serious impact 8.33 IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH - HUMAN HEALTH - 6 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Impact of occurence on human health None Humans not considered susceptible to inf ection Mild Sy mptoms mild, transcient without lasting ef f ects Medium Sy mptoms may require time of f work, (1week) and/or medical interv ention Serious Sy mptoms of ten prov oke medical interv ention, possible long term health ef f ects (>1 month). Extreme pain and discomf ort. Fatalities uncommon High High case f atality (>5%) and/or permanent health ef f ects 4.16 Likelihood of occurrence None Prov e n impossibility of transmission to humans through liv e animals, animal products, v ectors or f ood Extremely rare Probability lower than 1/1000000 Occasional Occurs at an incidence lower than 1/10000 Regular Occurs at an incidence lower than 1/1000 Frequent Occu rs at an incidence higher than 1/1000 4.16 Impact of occurrence on f ood saf ety No Not spread in f ood Negligible Very low lev el of contamination of f ood but unlikely to cause problems Low Low lev el of contamination and can cause disease/inf ection if organisms ingested in large numbers Medium Probability of spread v ia f ood but large numbers of organisms needed to cause problems. Precautions required High High probability of spread v ia f ood, small inf ectiv e dose and strict precautions required 4.16
- 6. Transmissibility (spread from animal to human) No No transmission possible Negligible No known transmission to humans or no inf ormation Low Possible transmission and existing contacts with liv e animals Medium Possible transmission or contamination through direct or indirect contact or v ector/f ood High Very low species barrier, possible airborne or through the env ironment 4.16 Spread in humans No Non- transmissible Negligible No known transmission between humans or no inf ormation Low Transmission between humans is uncommon Moderate Transmission between humans requires prolonged or high lev el challenge Rapid Trans mission between humans occurs f requently and is common 4.16 Bioterrorism potential None Agent unav ailable or impossible to handle or no harm Negligible Agent av ailable but dif f icult to handle or low potential harm Low Agent av ailable and easy to handle by pros and labs but low potential harm Medium Agent av ailable and easy to handle by pros and labs and high potential harm Sev ere Agent av ailable and easy to handle by indiv iduals and high potential harm 4.16 IMPACT ON WIDER SOCIETY - 3 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Economic direct impact (including cumulativ e costs (e.g. Enzoonotic v s Epizootic)) None No loss, no control measures Negligible Minor reduction in production Low Production reduced but not banned. Treatment and v accination Medium Production reduced and partially banned. Test and slaughter High Production reduced and banned. Total slaughter 8.33 Economic indirect impact (social, market) None Products continue to be distributed Negligible Minor impact on distribution of products Low Herd products redirected to lower v alue markets Medium Market price reduced temporarily by less than 30% High Reduction by more than 30% ov er a month or a country wide ban 8.33
- 7. Agriterrorism potential None Agent unavailable or impossible to handle or no spread Negligible Agent av ailable but dif f icult to handle or low spread or low economic damages Low Agent av ailable and easy to handle by prof essionals and labs but low spread or low economic damages Medium Agent av ailable and easy to handle by prof essionals and labs and rapidly spread or high economic damages Sev ere Agent av ailable and easy to handle by indiv iduals and rapidly spread and great economic damages 8.33 IMPACT ON TRADE - 4 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Impact on international trade due to existing regulations None No restriction or only at animal lev el Minor Only at herd lev el Moderate At zone lev el and/or a list of commodities, no loss of of f icial status Signif icant Zone standstill, loss of of ficial status, short recov ery period Serious Possible nationwide ban standstill with or without list, of f icial atatus dif f icult to recov er 6.25 Impact on Economic trade due to existing regulations None No restriction or only at animal lev el Minor Only at herd lev el Moderate At zone lev el and/or list of commodities Signif icant At zone lev el and/or no list of commodities Serious Nationwide ban/standstill with or without list 6.25 Potential f or zoning High Zoning possible at f arm lev el Moderate Zoning possible 1 to 10 kms Low Zoning possible but more than 10 kms Very low Zoning using wider administrativ e boundaries None Only compartments 6.25 Impact on security of f ood supply Extremely limited, anecdotal Low v alue Only in some remote areas Moderate Someremote areas may be temporarily out of stock High Some areas of the country may be out of stock Very High May cause or increase hunger problems 6.25 CONTROL TOOLS - 3 criteria 2 1 0 -1 -2
- 8. Appropriate diagnostics Need:Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 Appropriate v accines Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 Appropriate pharmaceuticals Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Bacteria - Yes Need: Virus - Desirable Av ailability : Bacteria - Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Av ailability : Virus - No Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 TOTAL Source:http://www.discontools.eu/
- 9. Estimate the monetaryvalue Cost of disease Cost of disease control Benefits of disease control Costs due to mortality costs due to morbidity Costs associated with treatment Extra labor to nurse the sick animals Prohibition of sales of animal products (ex. milk) Increase in food conversion index Impact on trade Diagnostic tests Vaccines Drugs Travel costs Staff costs Vehicles Equipment Genetic loss due to the slaughter policy etc. Benefit = Losses due to the disease without control project − Losses due to the disease with control project = RATIONALE FOR ESTABLISHING A DISEASE CONTROL PROGRAM Justification for the disease control program, summarizing the current knowledge about the epidemiological situation within an area, providing detailed information on: 1. the disease situation 2. disease impacts (animal and public health, food safety, food security, biodiversity and socioeconomic impact) and how these are distributed among stakeholders 3. identity, level of interest and involvement of stakeholders CONTROL PROGRAM GOALS Goals are the desired results or outcomes that a control program envisions, plans and commits to achieve. Examples: a. Improve control of swine respiratory diseases in Bulacan. b. Control and management of surra in the Philippines will contribute to increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, improving livelihoods and ensuring food security.
- 10. Sample guide forsetting goals in animal health [Table adopted from (World Organisation for Animal Health, 2014)] CONTROL PROGRAM OUTCOME, OUTPUTS, ACTIVITIES Outcome is what had previously been termed “objective/s”. However the current approach is to have only one outcome defined in one brief statement which describes the change that the project is expected to generate in the target group. The outcome is the result of outputs which are the result of activities. Outcome ___________ Output 1. ___________ Activity 1.1. __________ Activity 1.2. __________ Output 2. ___________ Activity 2.1. __________ Activity 2.2. __________
- 11. Output 3. ___________ Activity3.1 __________ Etc. Outcome and outputs should be formulated in very clear terms that are qualitatively and quantitatively verifiable so that relevant indicators can be easily derived for monitoring and evaluation purposes. Outputs are usually described as nouns and adjectives Activities are the actions that the project will carry out in order to obtain the outputs. Note the activities are usually described as verbs and adverbs. Examples: Outcome: The strategy program envisions the Philippines to control and manage surra by 2025 such that incidence would be nearly 0 by that date. Expected Output: 1. Greater understanding on the epidemiology of surra Corresponding Activities: 1. Training on surra surveillance 2. Conduct surveillance to establish true prevalence of surra. RISKS AND ASSUMPTIONS Risk assessment and management are essential in project planning not necessarily to avoid risks but to plan for them and to mitigate their impact on the project. outline the key risks assessing their impact and probability describe how the risks will be monitored; explain whether there is a credible programme external to the project that addresses these risks (e.g. to improve public sector standards and systems); and outline steps proposed within the project to address these risks and indicate if these steps have been agreed with project partners. VARIOUS STRATEGIES FOR ANIMAL DISEASE CONTROL PREVENTION 1. On-Farm Biosecurity. The word is defined as measures adopted to keep diseases out of herds where they do not currently exist. a. Isolation of new animals brought to the farm b. Restriction on movement of people, animals, and equipment c. Use of safe feeds- Swill feeding can be dangerous d. Hygiene. Effective combination of cleaning and disinfection 2. Border controls to prevent the entry of animals, animal products and other potentially disease- causing products- at national, provincial, municipal or farm levels. 3. Regulation of importations- strict enough to prevent entry of exotic diseases but liberal enough to encourage legal importations. 4. Strict observance of export and import protocols a. Pre-export testing, quarantine and animal health certification
- 12. b. Post-arrival inspection,testing and quarantine 5. Inspection of persons and products arriving at airports and seaports 6. Proper disposal of food wastes from international aircraft and ship. a. Incineration b. Deep burial 7. Vaccination 8. Vector control 9. Public awareness and communication CONTROL Strategies to reduce the magnitude of existing disease 1. Reduce contact rate a. case finding & isolation b. contact tracing & quarantine c. behavior change d. “Resting” of farm or premises- length is not less than the survival time of the pathogen. FAO recommends a minimum of 21 days. e. Slaughter of susceptible animals f. Closure of livestock markets and other congregations of susceptible species (e.g. livestock auction markets, race meetings and livestock exhibit/shows) g. Removal of animals from areas with high insect population 2. Reduce infectiousness: treatment, vaccination 3. Reduce susceptibility a. Vaccination: Selective ( “ring vaccination”) or Total (“blanket” vaccination ) b. immune globulin 5. Identify and control reservoir/source a. pest/vector control a. Treatment or Destruction of breeding sites b. Use of insecticidal sprays b. environmental disinfection c. Surveillance- regular inspection of animals d. Biological - Read the success story on eradication of New World screwworm fly (Cochliomyia hominovorax) in the Americas and North Africa using the sterile insect release method (SIRM). e. Ban swill feeding or cook swill 6. Reduce prevalence of infectious sources a. identify and control infectious sources a. Proper disposal of contaminated carcasses- deep burial or burning 7. Reduce duration of infectiousness: Treatment, Vaccination 8. Increase herd immunity a. Vaccination b. Genetic improvement c. Improved husbandry 9. Public education- to inform people of the nature of the disease and of the restrictions in place. 10. Contact tracing- trace forward and trace back 11. Zoning- The designation of geographic areas in which specific disease control strategies is to be carried out.
- 13. Vaccination Tips 1. Choosethe safe and correct antigenic type. 2. Maintain vaccine quality- no contamination, potency, etc. 3. Follow the recommended vaccination coverage (preferably 70 %) 4. Mark vaccinated animals 5. Monitor proper storage temperatures for vaccines 6. Organize trained personnel into “clean” and “dirty” teams 7. Remember that gathering different herds together in one vaccination station maybe convenient but dangerous. 8. Count your needles and bottles before and after vaccination. ERADICATION Strategies to eliminate selected organisms from a defined population. Conditions for eradication 1. Social acceptability of the proposed eradication strategies; 2. Limited host range of the disease agent; 3. Limited transmission mechanisms; 4. Availability of reliable diagnostic tools that can even detect the pathogen in reservoirs or carriers; and 5. Effective method for destruction of agents in reservoirs Source: (Smith 2005) Strategies for Eradication 1. Cleaning, disinfection and rest period 2. Animal treatments 3. Treatment of products and by-products 4. Culling 5. Test and isolation 6. Test and slaughter 7. Depopulation/repopulation a. Advantages of stamping out i. the most efficient method for the rapid elimination of disease ii. It is often the most cost-effective. iii. The disease eradication campaign is shorter iv. Shorter waiting period before the country can be recognized as being free of the disease and the export of livestock and animal products resumed. b. Factors to consider before implementing the “slaughter” strategy i. Community acceptance ii. Availability of other strategies iii. Immediate availability of resources
- 14. Writing an AnimalDisease Control Plan Prepared by: Noemi Diloy-Encarnacion, DVM, MVetEpi I. Identify five diseases present in your locality that will satisfy the following criteria. Public Health Significance Impact on the livestock industry 1. What zoonotic diseases occur more frequently? 2. What zoonotic diseases cause severe sickness in humans? 3. Present mortality and morbidity rates 1. How easily is the disease transmitted from farm to farm? 2. What are the losses due to morbidity? 3. What are the losses due to mortality? 4. What are the effects on trade and commerce? II. Rank the diseases based on their measured importance using the prioritization tool. Write the summary of scores in the table below. DISEASES DISEASE KNOWLEDGE IMPACT ON ANIMAL HEALTH AND WELFARE IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH AND HUMAN HELATH IMPACT ON WIDER SOCIETY IMPACT ON TRADE CONTROL TOOLS TOTAL SCORE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5
- 15. Score Co- eff Total DISEASE KNOWLEDGE- 10 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Speed of spread None Non transmissible Very slow Low lev el of transmission within holdings and unlikely between holdings Slow Slow transmission between holdings with or without animal mov ements Medium Rapid transmission between holdings with or without animal mov ements High Rapid transmission between holdings without animal mov ements 2.5 Number of liv estock species inv olv ed One ND or expected to be limited Limited 2 species Medium 3 species11 High 4 species and ov er 2.5 Persistence of the inf ectious agent in the env ironment No Nev er Found Rare Occasionally f ound ND if unknown Constant Animal reserv oir or v ector Not remov able f rom the env ironment 2.5 Risk of spread to susceptible populations No Not contagious Low Transmissible direct contact ND if unknown Medium Indirect contact, contagion High Airborne inf ection 2.5 Potential f or silent spread None Negligible Signs of inf ection easily recognised and likely to occur in animal under superv ision Low Signs of inf ection easily recognised but depends on the lev el of superv ision Moderate Specif ic diagnosis may be dif f icult in one or more species High Disease/inf ection not likely to be detected f or some time 2.5 Wildlif e reserv oir and potential spread Negligible No known wildlif e reserv oir Minor Prev alence in remote wildlif e Moderate Wildlif e reserv oir: no direct contact with humans or domestic animals Signif icant Wildlif e reserv oir Serious Wildlif e reserv oir in close contact with humans and/or domestic animals 2.5
- 16. Vector reserv oirand potential spread None No known v ector or reserv oir Low Competent v ector(s) thought to exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection Medium Competent v ector(s) exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection High Competent v ector(s) exist in the country but not considered capable of surv iv ing but could transmit inf ection Very High Competent v ector(s) exist in the country and is (are) capable of surv iv ing and transmitting inf ection 2.5 Variability of the agent Negligible One ty pe, stable host/v ector Low Few ty pes, not mutating, stable host/v ector Moderate Few ty pes, not mutating, low host specif icity , stable v ector if any High Numerous ty pes or mutating, low host or v ector specif icity Very High Numerous ty pes and mutating, low host or v ector specif icity 2.5 Understanding of f undamental immunology Fully understood, both humoral and cellular immunity Fully understand humoral immunity and partial understanding of cellular immunity Partially understand humoral and cellular immunity Partially understand humoral immunity None Nothing known about the immunology 2.5 Host-Pathogen interaction Fully understand the host-pathogen interactions Understand some aspects of the host and pathogen interactions Partially understand the host-pathogen interactions Little understanding of the host-pathogen interactions No inf ormation 2.5 IMPACT ON ANIMAL HEALTH AND WELFARE - 3 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Disease impact on production None Production not af f ected Very low Some loss of production but no major impact on income Low Production reduced by less than 20%. Major loss of income Medium Production reduced by more than 20%. Major loss of income Sev ere Production reduced by more than 50%. Major loss of income and v iability of industry threatened 8.33 Duration of animal welf are impact None No impact Transcient Impact less than 48 hours Short Term 48 hours to 13 day s Medium term 15 day s to 24 months Permanent Greater than 24 months 8.33
- 17. Proportion of animalaf f ected suf f ering pain/ injury / distress as a result of the disease None No animal af f ected Very low <5% of animals suf f er serious impact Low 6-20% of animals suf f er serious impact Medium 21 to 50% of animals suf f er serious impact Serious >50% of animals suf f er serious impact 8.33 IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH - HUMAN HEALTH - 6 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Impact of occurence on human health None Humans not considered susceptible to inf ection Mild Sy mptoms mild, transcient without lasting ef f ects Medium Sy mptoms may require time of f work, (1week) and/or medical interv ention Serious Sy mptoms of ten prov oke medical interv ention, possible long term health ef f ects (>1 month). Extreme pain and discomf ort. Fatalities uncommon High High case f atality (>5%) and/or permanent health ef f ects 4.16 Likelihood of occurrence None Prov e n impossibility of transmission to humans through liv e animals, animal products, v ectors or f ood Extremely rare Probability lower than 1/1000000 Occasional Occurs at an incidence lower than 1/10000 Regular Occurs at an incidence lower than 1/1000 Frequent Occu rs at an incidence higher than 1/1000 4.16 Impact of occurrence on f ood saf ety No Not spread in f ood Negligible Very low lev el of contamination of f ood but unlikely to cause problems Low Low lev el of contamination and can cause disease/inf ection if organisms ingested in large numbers Medium Probability of spread v ia f ood but large numbers of organisms needed to cause problems. Precautions required High High probability of spread v ia f ood, small inf ectiv e dose and strict precautions required 4.16
- 18. Transmissibility (spread from animal to human) No No transmission possible Negligible No known transmission to humans or no inf ormation Low Possible transmission and existing contacts with liv e animals Medium Possible transmission or contamination through direct or indirect contact or v ector/f ood High Very low species barrier, possible airborne or through the env ironment 4.16 Spread in humans No Non- transmissible Negligible No known transmission between humans or no inf ormation Low Transmission between humans is uncommon Moderate Transmission between humans requires prolonged or high lev el challenge Rapid Trans mission between humans occurs f requently and is common 4.16 Bioterrorism potential None Agent unav ailable or impossible to handle or no harm Negligible Agent av ailable but dif f icult to handle or low potential harm Low Agent av ailable and easy to handle by pros and labs but low potential harm Medium Agent av ailable and easy to handle by pros and labs and high potential harm Sev ere Agent av ailable and easy to handle by indiv iduals and high potential harm 4.16 IMPACT ON WIDER SOCIETY - 3 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Economic direct impact (including cumulativ e costs (e.g. Enzoonotic v s Epizootic)) None No loss, no control measures Negligible Minor reduction in production Low Production reduced but not banned. Treatment and v accination Medium Production reduced and partially banned. Test and slaughter High Production reduced and banned. Total slaughter 8.33 Economic indirect impact (social, market) None Products continue to be distributed Negligible Minor impact on distribution of products Low Herd products redirected to lower v alue markets Medium Market price reduced temporarily by less than 30% High Reduction by more than 30% ov er a month or a country wide ban 8.33
- 19. Agriterrorism potential None Agent unavailable or impossible to handle or no spread Negligible Agent av ailable but dif f icult to handle or low spread or low economic damages Low Agent av ailable and easy to handle by prof essionals and labs but low spread or low economic damages Medium Agent av ailable and easy to handle by prof essionals and labs and rapidly spread or high economic damages Sev ere Agent av ailable and easy to handle by indiv iduals and rapidly spread and great economic damages 8.33 IMPACT ON TRADE - 4 criteria 0 1 2 3 4 Impact on international trade due to existing regulations None No restriction or only at animal lev el Minor Only at herd lev el Moderate At zone lev el and/or a list of commodities, no loss of of f icial status Signif icant Zone standstill, loss of of ficial status, short recov ery period Serious Possible nationwide ban standstill with or without list, of f icial atatus dif f icult to recov er 6.25 Impact on Economic trade due to existing regulations None No restriction or only at animal lev el Minor Only at herd lev el Moderate At zone lev el and/or list of commodities Signif icant At zone lev el and/or no list of commodities Serious Nationwide ban/standstill with or without list 6.25 Potential f or zoning High Zoning possible at f arm lev el Moderate Zoning possible 1 to 10 kms Low Zoning possible but more than 10 kms Very low Zoning using wider administrativ e boundaries None Only compartments 6.25 Impact on security of f ood supply Extremely limited, anecdotal Low v alue Only in some remote areas Moderate Some remote areas may be temporarily out of stock High Some areas of the country may be out of stock Very High May cause or increase hunger problems 6.25 CONTROL TOOLS - 3 criteria 2 1 0 -1 -2
- 20. Appropriate diagnostics Need:Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 Appropriate v accines Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 Appropriate pharmaceuticals Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Low Need: Yes Av ailability : No Market Potential: Yes Need: Bacteria - Yes Need: Virus - Desirable Av ailability : Bacteria - Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Av ailability : Virus - No Market Potential: Low to Medium Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (not f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes Either Need: No or Need: Yes Av ailability : Yes (f ully ef f ectiv e) Market Potential: Yes 16.6 6 TOTAL
- 21.
- 22. CONTROL PROGRAM GOALS/ IMPACT OUTCOMEEXPECTED OUTPUT/ PRODUCT BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE CORRESPONDING ACTIVITIES/ WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE
- 23. Risk Matrix Risk ImpactProbability Mitigation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
- 24. OUTPUTS / ACTIVITIESYEAR 1 YEAR 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12