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Analysis Frameworks for  Sustainability:   Linking Energy and the Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Integrative Science and Engineering for ‘Grand Challenges’  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],This is an exploration of frameworks for integrated Energy Environmental Analysis Interested in the EE integration challenge? Join us on the  wiki !
Sustainable Development (SD) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],National Academy, 1999
Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system  (Gaia Theory) Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged.  Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed. Atmospheric CO 2  has been increasing because the rate of input  is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.
Major Biogeochemical  Processes Visualized by Aerosols Dust storms Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution Fires Anthropogenic pollution perturbs the natural processes and material flows
Analysis Frameworks ,[object Object],[object Object],Causality Loop (Combined Social-Physical-Biological System) Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Engineering; Biology; Conservation Laws) Assessment Controls  Monitoring
Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop Assessment Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions Track Progress Controls  (Actions) Monitoring (Sensing) Set Goals Assessment  turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.) Monitoring  collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and  Human activities exert  pressures , e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the  state  of environment.  The impaired environmental state, elicits  responses , such as regulations in a feedback loop All living organisms use this type of  sensory-motor feedback  to maintain their existence. Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for  sustainable development.
Monitoring: New Global Measurements - Satellites  ERBS Terra Aqua Grace IceSat QuikScat Sage SeaWinds TRMM Toms-EP UARS Jason Landsat  7 SORCE SeaWiFS ACRIMSAT TOPEX/Poseidon EO-1
Eskes at al, 2006 Source Identification: - Man-made, Soil, Biomass, Lightning - Seasonal pattern of each Trend 1995-2005: - Reductions in N. America & Europe  - Increase over East Asia (China) Monitoring Global Change: Tropospheric NO2 Measurements from Satellites:
Analysis of OMI satellite NO2 observations: NO 2  Weekly Cycle Weekend/weekday NO2 patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions See  screencast  (1 minute)  The revolutions in sensing and data distribution now allow the monitoring and analysis of the chemical weather and climate over the Earth.
Setting Goals: Air Quality Goal:  Attaining Natural Condition by 2064
Controls: Sustainability Transition
[object Object],[object Object]
Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon
Nitrogen Cycle
 
Consequences of Ecosystem Changes
How and what to Control??  Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment Health-Welfare Energy-Environment Socio-Economic
Causality: Linear System Model
Trend of Indicators ,[object Object],1960s 1980s 1990s
Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions ,[object Object],Industr. Energy Transp. Energy ResCom.Engy Coal Oil Gas Electric Energy SOx NOx HC PM Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k Ind. Chemicals Industr. Goods Pop.,  P Metals Mercury a i Consump./Person b ij Fuels/Energy c jk Emission/Fuel- j j i i i j Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE   =     a i  P  Fuels and Materials Flow: FM   =        a i   b ij  P  Emission of Pollutants: EM   =           a i   b ij  c jk  P Industrial Prod. Transportation ResComercial EconMeasure(EM)
Coal Production and S Content
Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998 ,[object Object],Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer ,[object Object]
Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Spatial Transfer Matrices
Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation 1960-2003 Env 449 Class project, SP 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Carbon Emission Drivers for US Housing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Env 449 Class project, SP 2007
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Analysis Frameworks Link Energy Environment

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  • 4. Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system (Gaia Theory) Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged. Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed. Atmospheric CO 2 has been increasing because the rate of input is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.
  • 5. Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols Dust storms Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution Fires Anthropogenic pollution perturbs the natural processes and material flows
  • 6.
  • 7. Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop Assessment Compare to Goals, Plan Reductions Track Progress Controls (Actions) Monitoring (Sensing) Set Goals Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.) Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and Human activities exert pressures , e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment. The impaired environmental state, elicits responses , such as regulations in a feedback loop All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence. Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.
  • 8. Monitoring: New Global Measurements - Satellites ERBS Terra Aqua Grace IceSat QuikScat Sage SeaWinds TRMM Toms-EP UARS Jason Landsat 7 SORCE SeaWiFS ACRIMSAT TOPEX/Poseidon EO-1
  • 9. Eskes at al, 2006 Source Identification: - Man-made, Soil, Biomass, Lightning - Seasonal pattern of each Trend 1995-2005: - Reductions in N. America & Europe - Increase over East Asia (China) Monitoring Global Change: Tropospheric NO2 Measurements from Satellites:
  • 10. Analysis of OMI satellite NO2 observations: NO 2 Weekly Cycle Weekend/weekday NO2 patterns associated with reduced Sunday emissions See screencast (1 minute) The revolutions in sensing and data distribution now allow the monitoring and analysis of the chemical weather and climate over the Earth.
  • 11. Setting Goals: Air Quality Goal: Attaining Natural Condition by 2064
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  • 16.  
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  • 19. Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment Health-Welfare Energy-Environment Socio-Economic
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  • 23. Coal Production and S Content
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  • 25. Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Spatial Transfer Matrices
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