The document outlines key digital trends predicted for 2016, including the rise of voice consumer engagement, mobile payments, and increased consumer willingness to share data. It also addresses expected challenges like unresolved ad blocking and disagreements on viewability. Furthermore, it forecasts that mobile commerce will grow significantly, comprising 25% of US eCommerce sales, while digital ad spending is not anticipated to surpass TV ad spending that year.

1. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Digital Trends 2016:
What Will Happen–and Won’t Happen–in the Year Ahead
December 10, 2015
Ezra Palmer
Content Chief, eMarketer
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2. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
The sixth edition of our annual predictions for
key trends in the digital marketplace
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3. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Five Things That WILL Happen
in 2016

4. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#1: The voice of
the consumer
will be heard
We’re talking about consumers’
actual voices.
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5. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Search and
native social
pages will
drive voice
activity growth
Volume from
search will rise
more than 15%,
and the volume
from social will
nearly double
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6. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Are inbound voice calls really the wave of the
future?
Cathy Boyle, senior analyst, mobile
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7. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#2: Mobile
payments will
take off
In 2016, the divide between digital
and physical commerce will be
bridged further.
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8. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Growth of US Proximity Mobile Payment Users
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
37.5 million
users
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9. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Growth of Mobile Payment Transaction Value
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$27.05
billion
$210.45
billion
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10. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How common will mobile payments become in
2016?
Bryan Yeager, senior analyst, emerging
platforms and mobile payments
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11. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Consumers
will be free
with their data
Millennials and centennials
especially.
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12. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
People say
they value
privacy, but
they are quick
to give up
personal data
in return for
value
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13. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Facebook
will become
nearly entirely
mobile
More than three-quarters of
Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile.
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14. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
% of WW Facebook Users Who Are Mobile-Only
2014 2015
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34%
47%

15. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Is mobile-only Facebooking a US phenomenon?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
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16. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#5: Mobile
commerce will
move down the
funnel
Mcommerce will make up 25%
of US ecommerce sales in 2016.
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17. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How the big players are goosing mobile
commerce:
 Screen Size
– Bigger smartphone screens mean bigger mcommerce sales.
 Mobile Payments
– Android Pay and Apple Pay simplify in-app purchases.
 Buy Buttons
– Buy buttons could make social commerce more of a reality.
 Mobile Search
– Consumers often start mobile product searches on Amazon’s app.
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18. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Are mobile payments a big driver for mobile
commerce?
Bryan Yeager, senior analyst,
emerging platforms and mobile payments
#eMwebinar

19. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#6: Marketers
will join the
conversation
(The conversation
in messaging apps, that is.)
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20. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger are on the
way to having 1 billion MAUs worldwide
 Facebook is the
big player in the
US
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21. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How can marketers have a voice in one-to-one
communications?
Cathy Boyle, senior analyst, mobile
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22. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
… We interrupt this
trend report to talk
about ad blocking …

23. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Ad blocking
won’t get
solved in 2016
The problems of ad blocking and
ad avoidance will persist.
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24. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
The good
news is that
ad blocking is
less common
in the US than
elsewhere
For desktops,
anyway …
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25. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Will native advertising soar because of ad
blocking?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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26. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Four More Things
That WON’T Happen in 2016

27. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#1: Like ad
blocking,
viewability
won’t get
solved, either
Disagreements will continue.
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28. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
There’s just
not a lot of
agreement
about
viewability
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29. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How important is it to solve viewability?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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30. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#2: Facebook
won’t kill
YouTube
Different platforms, different
solutions for marketers.
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31. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Is Facebook cannibalizing YouTube?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
#eMwebinar

32. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Young
people won’t
abandon
Facebook in
droves
Sorry, President Obama.
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33. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
More than 60% of
recent high school
graduates check
Facebook at least
once a day
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34. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How many young people will use Facebook in the
future?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
#eMwebinar

35. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Digital ad
spending won’t
surpass TV ad
spending
Not in 2016, anyway.
#eMwebinar

36. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
TV will remain
the largest
channel for
US ad
spending in
2016
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37. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Will digital and TV work together? How?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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Anastasia Pavlova
Sr. Director, Marketing, Marketo

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43. © 2015 eMarketer Inc.
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Ezra Palmer
Digital Trends 2016:
What Will Happen–and Won’t
Happen–in the Year Ahead
 Social Advertising Effectiveness Scorecard: Industry Execs Grade
the Leading Platforms
 Mobile Messaging Apps: Global User Forecast, Leaderboard and
Outlook on Monetization
 Cross-Device Targeting: First-Party Data, TV and Privacy Are Big
Factors for 2016
 US Mobile Payments Forecast: Driven by User Growth and Broader
Acceptance, Transaction Value Will Triple in 2016