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© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Key Digital Trends for 2017
A Glance Back at 2016, A Look Ahead to 2017
December 2016
Ezra Palmer
Content Chief
Cathy Boyle
Principal Analyst
Lauren Fisher
Senior Analyst
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
How Have Our
Predictions Held Up?
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#1: US digital
ad spending
won’t surpass
TV ad spending
(Not in 2016, anyway)
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
2014 2015 2016 2017
$72.7 B
$67.1 B
US Ad Spending, September 2015
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2015
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
$71.3 B
US Ad Spending, September 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
What’s behind
the accelerated
crossover and
what does it mean
for the future of
advertising? Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Google and Facebook success, tech advances
and mobile shift are key contributors
2016: $29.6B ^ 19.8% 40.9%
2017: $33.9B ^ 14.8% 41.3%
2016: $11.9B ^ 48.6% 16.6%
2017: $15.2B ^ 27.3% 18.3%
US Net Digital Ad Revenues
Precise targeting
Better measurement
Shift to mobile
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
A few additional reasons: growth in
programmatic and digital video spending
$25.2B
$31.9B
$37.9B
US Programmatic Digital
Display Ad Spending
US Digital Video Ad Spending
$10.3B $12.6B
$14.4B
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#2: The voice of
the consumer
will be heard
We’re talking about consumers’
actual voices
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Search and
native social
pages will
drive voice
activity growth
Volume from
search will rise
more than 15%,
and the volume
from social will
nearly double
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Are voice-based
interfaces the next
mobile frontier for
marketers and
advertisers?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
31%
YOY Growth
2015 to 2016
The volume of inbound calls to businesses from
mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
86 billion
Marketers need to be prepared for a heavier
volume of inbound calls, now and going forward
But ...
BIA/Kelsey did
adjust its 2016
projection
downward
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
$1 Trillion
Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will
influence roughly one-third of in-store sales
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
In-store retail spending
influenced by inbound calls
from mobile users in the US
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Voice-initiated
search queries
make up 20%
of all queries
made through
Google’s
mobile app
1 in 5
The number of
searches initiated
by voice
Source: Google, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
2%
The number of
households with
voice-activated
assistant devices
in 2016
Source: Strategy Analytics, Aug 2016
1.8 million
voice-activated
assistant devices
are projected to
be sold in the US
this year
Most will be Amazon Echo
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Mobile
payments will
take off
In 2016, the divide between digital
and physical commerce will be
bridged further
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
US Mobile Payment Users
2014 2015 2016 2017
23.2 M
50.2 M
37.5 M
16.4 M
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Average Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment
User
2014 2015 2016 2017
$375
$1,231
$721
$224
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Annual Mobile Payments Transaction Value
2014 2015 2016 2017
$8.7 B
$61.8 B
$27.1 B
$3.7 B
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Is there still a
case for rapid US
mobile payments
growth or are
expectations
tempered? Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Two data points, of many, that point to growth:
Other sources see increased penetration High interest among younger consumers
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Facebook
will become
nearly entirely
mobile
More than three-quarters of
Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
US Facebook
users who access
the social network
exclusively via
desktop or laptop
will number
less than
14 million in 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Will Facebook’s
mobile growth—in
both users and ad
revenue—hit a
ceiling this year?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
There’s still room for growth in the number of
mobile Facebook users
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2016
86%
of Facebook users will
access the platform
from a mobile phone
2016
90%
of Facebook users will
access the platform
from a mobile phone
2018
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
The story is similar on the advertising front—
there’s still room for growth on the mobile side
85%
of Facebook’s US ad
revenue will come
from mobile ads
2016
90%
of Facebook’s US ad
revenue will come
from mobile ads
2018
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#5: Facebook
won’t kill
YouTube
Different platforms, different
solutions for marketers
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
YouTube US Ad Revenues, 2015–2019
2015 2016 2017 2018
$2.2 B
$2.9 B
$3.4 B
$3.9 B
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook’s
video
penetration
has reached
competitive
levels in less
than two years
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
How much of a
threat to YouTube is
Facebook’s progress
with scaling digital
video?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
More US internet
users turn to
YouTube for
video viewing
than Facebook
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
YouTube has
proven to be a
reliable platform
for delivering a
positive return
on investment
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
A battle is being
waged over the
live video viewing
audience—
Facebook and
YouTube are tied
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#6: Young
people won’t
abandon
Facebook in
droves
Still not true
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Is Snapchat
making a dent in
Facebook usage
among teens and
millennials?
Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Facebook
and Instagram
remain dominant
social media
platforms for
millennials, but
Snapchat is
growing in
popularity
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#7: Ad blocking
won’t get
solved in 2016
The problems of ad blocking and
ad avoidance will persist
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Ad blocking hasn’t
been solved, but
what progress has
been made?
CathyEzra
Lauren
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Ad blocking
penetration
rates in US and
UK will slow in
2017, but still
see double-digit
growth
Ad Blocking Penetration
Among Internet Users
Source: eMarketer, April 2016, June 2016
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Publishers are making progress with ad blocking
in multiple ways
1. Passively reviewing ad blocking activity to better quantify
its effects on revenues and audiences
2. Preventing users who employ ad blockers from accessing
their content
3. Circumventing the ad blockers and serving ads anyway
4. Detecting ad blockers and giving consumers options
#eMwebinar
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Stay Tuned for Our
Predictions for 2017!
2017 Trends: The Future of Digital
Marketing
Charm Bianchini
Sr. Director of Marketing
Marketo
@charmbianchini
Marketo | © Marketo, Inc.
Trend 1: Technology
Marketers will leverage
marketing technology
more than ever before
to scale and guide
their customers at
exactly the right place
and the right time
Marketo | © Marketo, Inc.
Trend 2: Personalization
Marketers will improve
their level of
personalization and
move from basic
targeting to advanced,
orchestrated customer
experiences across
channels
Marketo | © Marketo, Inc.
Trend 3: Account focus
Marketers will
continue to shift from
lead-centric to
account-specific
insights to penetrate
companies within their
sweet spot
Thank You
Charm Bianchini
Sr. Director of Marketing
Marketo
@charmbianchini
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Our Predictions for 2017
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#1: Artificial Intelligence
Our prediction: AI will not put marketers out of
work. (At least not in 2017)
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#2: Papering Over Privacy
Our prediction: Internet users still won’t change
their behaviors despite hacking scares
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#3: Live Digital Video Will Clear a Huge Hurdle
Our prediction: Sometime in 2017, a live video
stream will win a primetime-sized audience
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#4: Chatbot Reality Check
Our prediction: Chatbots in 2017? All talk and
no action
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#5: Truly, Mobile, Deeply
Our prediction: 2017 will be the year of
“authentically mobile” experiences
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#6: Food for Thought
Our prediction: Online grocery shopping will
jump in 2017. And brick-and-mortar stores will play
a starring role
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#7: Attribution Arises
Our prediction: Marketers will make the move to
more complex forms of attribution modeling in 2017
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#8: The Medium Is the Message
Our prediction: 2017 will be the tipping point for
mobile messaging. More than half of mobile users
will use messaging apps
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#9: Fluent in Influencing
Our prediction: Influencers will take a
significant chunk of the ad market in 2017
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
#10: Let the Games Begin
Our prediction: Virtual Reality won’t be a
significant marketing channel until hardware
becomes more widespread
© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
The Predictions for 2017
 AI will not put marketers out of
work. (At least not in 2017.)
 Internet users still won’t change
their behaviors despite hacking
scares.
 Sometime in 2017, a live video
stream will win a
primetime-sized audience.
 Chatbots in 2017? All talk and
no action.
 2017 will be the year of
“authentically mobile”
experiences.
 Online grocery shopping will
jump in 2017. Brick-and-mortar
stores will play a starring role.
 Marketers will shift to more
complex forms of attribution.
 2017 will be the tipping point
for mobile messaging.
 Influencers will take a big chunk
of the ad market in 2017.
 VR won’t be a significant
marketing channel until
hardware becomes more
widespread.

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eMarketer Webinar: Key Digital Trends for 2017

  • 1. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Key Digital Trends for 2017 A Glance Back at 2016, A Look Ahead to 2017 December 2016 Ezra Palmer Content Chief Cathy Boyle Principal Analyst Lauren Fisher Senior Analyst
  • 2. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. How Have Our Predictions Held Up?
  • 3. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #1: US digital ad spending won’t surpass TV ad spending (Not in 2016, anyway)
  • 5. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2014 2015 2016 2017 $72.7 B $67.1 B US Ad Spending, September 2015 Source: eMarketer, Sep 2015 #eMwebinar
  • 6. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. $71.3 B US Ad Spending, September 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 7. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. What’s behind the accelerated crossover and what does it mean for the future of advertising? Ezra Lauren #eMwebinar
  • 8. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Google and Facebook success, tech advances and mobile shift are key contributors 2016: $29.6B ^ 19.8% 40.9% 2017: $33.9B ^ 14.8% 41.3% 2016: $11.9B ^ 48.6% 16.6% 2017: $15.2B ^ 27.3% 18.3% US Net Digital Ad Revenues Precise targeting Better measurement Shift to mobile Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 9. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A few additional reasons: growth in programmatic and digital video spending $25.2B $31.9B $37.9B US Programmatic Digital Display Ad Spending US Digital Video Ad Spending $10.3B $12.6B $14.4B Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 10. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #2: The voice of the consumer will be heard We’re talking about consumers’ actual voices #eMwebinar
  • 11. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Search and native social pages will drive voice activity growth Volume from search will rise more than 15%, and the volume from social will nearly double #eMwebinar
  • 12. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #eMwebinar
  • 13. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Are voice-based interfaces the next mobile frontier for marketers and advertisers? CathyEzra #eMwebinar
  • 14. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 31% YOY Growth 2015 to 2016 The volume of inbound calls to businesses from mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 15. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 86 billion Marketers need to be prepared for a heavier volume of inbound calls, now and going forward But ... BIA/Kelsey did adjust its 2016 projection downward #eMwebinar
  • 16. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. $1 Trillion Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will influence roughly one-third of in-store sales Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016 In-store retail spending influenced by inbound calls from mobile users in the US #eMwebinar
  • 17. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Voice-initiated search queries make up 20% of all queries made through Google’s mobile app 1 in 5 The number of searches initiated by voice Source: Google, Sep 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 18. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. 2% The number of households with voice-activated assistant devices in 2016 Source: Strategy Analytics, Aug 2016 1.8 million voice-activated assistant devices are projected to be sold in the US this year Most will be Amazon Echo #eMwebinar
  • 19. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #3: Mobile payments will take off In 2016, the divide between digital and physical commerce will be bridged further #eMwebinar
  • 20. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US Mobile Payment Users 2014 2015 2016 2017 23.2 M 50.2 M 37.5 M 16.4 M Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015 #eMwebinar
  • 21. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Average Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment User 2014 2015 2016 2017 $375 $1,231 $721 $224 Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015 #eMwebinar
  • 22. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Annual Mobile Payments Transaction Value 2014 2015 2016 2017 $8.7 B $61.8 B $27.1 B $3.7 B Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015 #eMwebinar
  • 23. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Is there still a case for rapid US mobile payments growth or are expectations tempered? Ezra Lauren #eMwebinar
  • 24. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Two data points, of many, that point to growth: Other sources see increased penetration High interest among younger consumers #eMwebinar
  • 25. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #4: Facebook will become nearly entirely mobile More than three-quarters of Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile #eMwebinar
  • 26. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. US Facebook users who access the social network exclusively via desktop or laptop will number less than 14 million in 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 27. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Will Facebook’s mobile growth—in both users and ad revenue—hit a ceiling this year? CathyEzra #eMwebinar
  • 28. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. There’s still room for growth in the number of mobile Facebook users Source: eMarketer, Aug 2016 86% of Facebook users will access the platform from a mobile phone 2016 90% of Facebook users will access the platform from a mobile phone 2018 #eMwebinar
  • 29. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The story is similar on the advertising front— there’s still room for growth on the mobile side 85% of Facebook’s US ad revenue will come from mobile ads 2016 90% of Facebook’s US ad revenue will come from mobile ads 2018 Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 30. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #5: Facebook won’t kill YouTube Different platforms, different solutions for marketers #eMwebinar
  • 31. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. YouTube US Ad Revenues, 2015–2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 $2.2 B $2.9 B $3.4 B $3.9 B Source: eMarketer, Sep 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 32. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Facebook’s video penetration has reached competitive levels in less than two years #eMwebinar
  • 33. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. How much of a threat to YouTube is Facebook’s progress with scaling digital video? CathyEzra #eMwebinar
  • 34. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. More US internet users turn to YouTube for video viewing than Facebook #eMwebinar
  • 35. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. YouTube has proven to be a reliable platform for delivering a positive return on investment #eMwebinar
  • 36. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. A battle is being waged over the live video viewing audience— Facebook and YouTube are tied #eMwebinar
  • 37. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #6: Young people won’t abandon Facebook in droves Still not true #eMwebinar
  • 38. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Is Snapchat making a dent in Facebook usage among teens and millennials? Ezra Lauren #eMwebinar
  • 39. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Facebook and Instagram remain dominant social media platforms for millennials, but Snapchat is growing in popularity #eMwebinar
  • 40. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #7: Ad blocking won’t get solved in 2016 The problems of ad blocking and ad avoidance will persist #eMwebinar
  • 41. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #eMwebinar
  • 42. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Ad blocking hasn’t been solved, but what progress has been made? CathyEzra Lauren #eMwebinar
  • 43. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Ad blocking penetration rates in US and UK will slow in 2017, but still see double-digit growth Ad Blocking Penetration Among Internet Users Source: eMarketer, April 2016, June 2016 #eMwebinar
  • 44. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Publishers are making progress with ad blocking in multiple ways 1. Passively reviewing ad blocking activity to better quantify its effects on revenues and audiences 2. Preventing users who employ ad blockers from accessing their content 3. Circumventing the ad blockers and serving ads anyway 4. Detecting ad blockers and giving consumers options #eMwebinar
  • 45. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Stay Tuned for Our Predictions for 2017!
  • 46. 2017 Trends: The Future of Digital Marketing Charm Bianchini Sr. Director of Marketing Marketo @charmbianchini
  • 47. Marketo | © Marketo, Inc. Trend 1: Technology Marketers will leverage marketing technology more than ever before to scale and guide their customers at exactly the right place and the right time
  • 48. Marketo | © Marketo, Inc. Trend 2: Personalization Marketers will improve their level of personalization and move from basic targeting to advanced, orchestrated customer experiences across channels
  • 49. Marketo | © Marketo, Inc. Trend 3: Account focus Marketers will continue to shift from lead-centric to account-specific insights to penetrate companies within their sweet spot
  • 50. Thank You Charm Bianchini Sr. Director of Marketing Marketo @charmbianchini
  • 51. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. Our Predictions for 2017
  • 52. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #1: Artificial Intelligence Our prediction: AI will not put marketers out of work. (At least not in 2017)
  • 53. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #2: Papering Over Privacy Our prediction: Internet users still won’t change their behaviors despite hacking scares
  • 54. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #3: Live Digital Video Will Clear a Huge Hurdle Our prediction: Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience
  • 55. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #4: Chatbot Reality Check Our prediction: Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action
  • 56. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #5: Truly, Mobile, Deeply Our prediction: 2017 will be the year of “authentically mobile” experiences
  • 57. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #6: Food for Thought Our prediction: Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. And brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role
  • 58. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #7: Attribution Arises Our prediction: Marketers will make the move to more complex forms of attribution modeling in 2017
  • 59. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #8: The Medium Is the Message Our prediction: 2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging. More than half of mobile users will use messaging apps
  • 60. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #9: Fluent in Influencing Our prediction: Influencers will take a significant chunk of the ad market in 2017
  • 61. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. #10: Let the Games Begin Our prediction: Virtual Reality won’t be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread
  • 62. © 2016 eMarketer Inc. The Predictions for 2017  AI will not put marketers out of work. (At least not in 2017.)  Internet users still won’t change their behaviors despite hacking scares.  Sometime in 2017, a live video stream will win a primetime-sized audience.  Chatbots in 2017? All talk and no action.  2017 will be the year of “authentically mobile” experiences.  Online grocery shopping will jump in 2017. Brick-and-mortar stores will play a starring role.  Marketers will shift to more complex forms of attribution.  2017 will be the tipping point for mobile messaging.  Influencers will take a big chunk of the ad market in 2017.  VR won’t be a significant marketing channel until hardware becomes more widespread.