eMarketer Webinar: Key Digital Trends for 2017

© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Key Digital Trends for 2017
A Glance Back at 2016, A Look Ahead to 2017
December 2016
Ezra Palmer
Content Chief
Cathy Boyle
Principal Analyst
Lauren Fisher
Senior Analyst

How Have Our
Predictions Held Up?

#1: US digital
ad spending
won’t surpass
TV ad spending
(Not in 2016, anyway)

2014 2015 2016 2017
$72.7 B
$67.1 B
US Ad Spending, September 2015
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2015
#eMwebinar

$71.3 B
US Ad Spending, September 2016
#eMwebinar

What’s behind
the accelerated
crossover and
what does it mean
for the future of
advertising? Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar

Google and Facebook success, tech advances
and mobile shift are key contributors
2016: $29.6B ^ 19.8% 40.9%
2017: $33.9B ^ 14.8% 41.3%
2016: $11.9B ^ 48.6% 16.6%
2017: $15.2B ^ 27.3% 18.3%
US Net Digital Ad Revenues
Precise targeting
Better measurement
Shift to mobile
#eMwebinar

A few additional reasons: growth in
programmatic and digital video spending
$25.2B
$31.9B
$37.9B
US Programmatic Digital
Display Ad Spending
US Digital Video Ad Spending
$10.3B $12.6B
$14.4B
#eMwebinar

#2: The voice of
the consumer
will be heard
We’re talking about consumers’
actual voices
#eMwebinar

Search and
native social
pages will
drive voice
activity growth
Volume from
search will rise
more than 15%,
and the volume
from social will
nearly double
#eMwebinar

#eMwebinar

Are voice-based
interfaces the next
mobile frontier for
marketers and
advertisers?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar

31%
YOY Growth
2015 to 2016
The volume of inbound calls to businesses from
mobile devices is growing at double-digit rates
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
#eMwebinar

86 billion
Marketers need to be prepared for a heavier
volume of inbound calls, now and going forward
But ...
BIA/Kelsey did
adjust its 2016
projection
downward
#eMwebinar

$1 Trillion
Still, inbound calls from mobile phones will
influence roughly one-third of in-store sales
Source: BIA/Kelsey, July 2016
In-store retail spending
influenced by inbound calls
from mobile users in the US
#eMwebinar

Voice-initiated
search queries
make up 20%
of all queries
made through
Google’s
mobile app
1 in 5
The number of
searches initiated
by voice
Source: Google, Sep 2016
#eMwebinar

2%
The number of
households with
voice-activated
assistant devices
in 2016
Source: Strategy Analytics, Aug 2016
1.8 million
voice-activated
assistant devices
are projected to
be sold in the US
this year
Most will be Amazon Echo
#eMwebinar

#3: Mobile
payments will
take off
In 2016, the divide between digital
and physical commerce will be
bridged further
#eMwebinar

US Mobile Payment Users
2014 2015 2016 2017
23.2 M
50.2 M
37.5 M
16.4 M
Source: eMarketer, Oct 2015
#eMwebinar

Average Annual Spend per US Mobile Payment
User
2014 2015 2016 2017
$375
$1,231
$721
$224
#eMwebinar

Annual Mobile Payments Transaction Value
2014 2015 2016 2017
$8.7 B
$61.8 B
$27.1 B
$3.7 B
#eMwebinar

Is there still a
case for rapid US
mobile payments
growth or are
expectations
tempered? Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar

Two data points, of many, that point to growth:
Other sources see increased penetration High interest among younger consumers
#eMwebinar

#4: Facebook
will become
nearly entirely
mobile
More than three-quarters of
Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile
#eMwebinar

US Facebook
users who access
the social network
exclusively via
desktop or laptop
will number
less than
14 million in 2016
#eMwebinar

Will Facebook’s
mobile growth—in
both users and ad
revenue—hit a
ceiling this year?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar

There’s still room for growth in the number of
mobile Facebook users
Source: eMarketer, Aug 2016
86%
of Facebook users will
access the platform
from a mobile phone
2016
90%
of Facebook users will
access the platform
from a mobile phone
2018
#eMwebinar

The story is similar on the advertising front—
there’s still room for growth on the mobile side
85%
of Facebook’s US ad
revenue will come
from mobile ads
2016
90%
of Facebook’s US ad
revenue will come
from mobile ads
2018
#eMwebinar

#5: Facebook
won’t kill
YouTube
Different platforms, different
solutions for marketers
#eMwebinar

YouTube US Ad Revenues, 2015–2019
2015 2016 2017 2018
$2.2 B
$2.9 B
$3.4 B
$3.9 B
#eMwebinar

Facebook’s
video
penetration
has reached
competitive
levels in less
than two years
#eMwebinar

How much of a
threat to YouTube is
Facebook’s progress
with scaling digital
video?
CathyEzra
#eMwebinar

More US internet
users turn to
YouTube for
video viewing
than Facebook
#eMwebinar

YouTube has
proven to be a
reliable platform
for delivering a
positive return
on investment
#eMwebinar

A battle is being
waged over the
live video viewing
audience—
Facebook and
YouTube are tied
#eMwebinar

#6: Young
people won’t
abandon
Facebook in
droves
Still not true
#eMwebinar

Is Snapchat
making a dent in
Facebook usage
among teens and
millennials?
Ezra Lauren
#eMwebinar

Facebook
and Instagram
remain dominant
social media
platforms for
millennials, but
Snapchat is
growing in
popularity
#eMwebinar

#7: Ad blocking
won’t get
solved in 2016
The problems of ad blocking and
ad avoidance will persist
#eMwebinar

Ad blocking hasn’t
been solved, but
what progress has
been made?
CathyEzra
Lauren
#eMwebinar

Ad blocking
penetration
rates in US and
UK will slow in
2017, but still
see double-digit
growth
Ad Blocking Penetration
Among Internet Users
Source: eMarketer, April 2016, June 2016
#eMwebinar

Publishers are making progress with ad blocking
in multiple ways
1. Passively reviewing ad blocking activity to better quantify
its effects on revenues and audiences
2. Preventing users who employ ad blockers from accessing
their content
3. Circumventing the ad blockers and serving ads anyway
4. Detecting ad blockers and giving consumers options
#eMwebinar

Stay Tuned for Our
Predictions for 2017!

2017 Trends: The Future of Digital
Marketing
Charm Bianchini
Sr. Director of Marketing
Marketo
@charmbianchini

Marketo | © Marketo, Inc.
Trend 1: Technology
Marketers will leverage
marketing technology
more than ever before
to scale and guide
their customers at
exactly the right place
and the right time

Trend 2: Personalization
Marketers will improve
their level of
personalization and
move from basic
targeting to advanced,
orchestrated customer
experiences across
channels

Trend 3: Account focus
Marketers will
continue to shift from
lead-centric to
account-specific
insights to penetrate
companies within their
sweet spot

Thank You
Charm Bianchini
Sr. Director of Marketing
Marketo
@charmbianchini

Our Predictions for 2017

#1: Artificial Intelligence
Our prediction: AI will not put marketers out of
work. (At least not in 2017)

#2: Papering Over Privacy
Our prediction: Internet users still won’t change
their behaviors despite hacking scares

#3: Live Digital Video Will Clear a Huge Hurdle
Our prediction: Sometime in 2017, a live video
stream will win a primetime-sized audience

#4: Chatbot Reality Check
Our prediction: Chatbots in 2017? All talk and
no action

#5: Truly, Mobile, Deeply
Our prediction: 2017 will be the year of
“authentically mobile” experiences

#6: Food for Thought
Our prediction: Online grocery shopping will
jump in 2017. And brick-and-mortar stores will play
a starring role

#7: Attribution Arises
Our prediction: Marketers will make the move to
more complex forms of attribution modeling in 2017

#8: The Medium Is the Message
Our prediction: 2017 will be the tipping point for
mobile messaging. More than half of mobile users
will use messaging apps

#9: Fluent in Influencing
Our prediction: Influencers will take a
significant chunk of the ad market in 2017

#10: Let the Games Begin
Our prediction: Virtual Reality won’t be a
significant marketing channel until hardware
becomes more widespread

The Predictions for 2017
 AI will not put marketers out of
work. (At least not in 2017.)
 Internet users still won’t change
their behaviors despite hacking
scares.
 Sometime in 2017, a live video
stream will win a
primetime-sized audience.
 Chatbots in 2017? All talk and
no action.
 2017 will be the year of
“authentically mobile”
experiences.
 Online grocery shopping will
jump in 2017. Brick-and-mortar
stores will play a starring role.
 Marketers will shift to more
complex forms of attribution.
 2017 will be the tipping point
for mobile messaging.
 Influencers will take a big chunk
of the ad market in 2017.
 VR won’t be a significant
marketing channel until
hardware becomes more
widespread.

eMarketer Webinar: Key Digital Trends for 2017

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eMarketer Webinar: Key Digital Trends for 2017