In a live webinar presentation to AWPresenter, Toby Procter, director of Trend Tracker Ltd, outlined the prospects for electric vehicle prices once governments stop offering financial incentives to customers.

1. Electric vehicle pricing: life after government incentives AW Presentation prepared by Toby Procter

2. Electric Vehicles: Energy, Infrastructure and Mobility in the Real World This study attempts to define what challenges have to be overcome for battery-electric cars to successfully displace conventional vehicles before mid-century, when oil supply is likely to have become at least highly problematical. © copyright

3. Study Methodology Literature research, discussions with key players, experts and interviews took place over three years, assessing a growing body of EV-related literature To provide first of all a broad picture of current and potential future developments in technology and the activities of all the stakeholders – manufacturers, researchers, start-ups, governments included – then to find out what issues have not yet been addressed. © copyright

4. Core problems for mobility The human population is growing towards 9 billion and the global car population is growing five times as fast, towards 2 billion. Besides other resource scarcities, oil to fuel cars is finite; so is space to park them.

5. Core problems with the EV solution Value - EVs are around twice as expensively priced as the cars they would displace, and offer far less utility. So they can only appeal to a restricted niche of suburban commuters or wealthy leisure users. Not enough to cut rising global oil consumption or transport emissions.

6. Core problems with the EV solution (Cont.) Subsidy dependence - To keep within 200% of the purchase price of comparable conventional vehicles, EV buyers need purchase subsidies of up to £5,000, and EV technology and infrastructure investors need comparable or greater amounts of subsidy too.

7. Core problems with the EV solution (Cont.) Infrastructure dependence - To assure even the modest commuting ranges available from today’s li ion battery technologies, recharging points need to be installed in public places and workplaces, at an average unit price equivalent to the price of a new car.

8. How much time for solutions? Given the high cost of EV subsidy, how long do suppliers have to make EVs profitable before governments turn off the tap?

9. What cost reductions do EVs need to achieve volume without subsidy?

10. What range do EVs need to achieve? And how long do batteries need to last?

11. External factors needed to help EVs survive Costly oil Punitive emissions legislation Fiscal carrots and sticks

12. The scale of the challenge “We cannot let electric vehicles turn into another niche product. To truly combat our oil dependence, we must put ourselves on the pathway toward millions, then tens of millions, then hundreds of millions of electric cars and trucks.” Frederick Smith, chairman, president and CEO of FedEx Corp. and co-chairman of the Energy Security Leadership Council

13. How many EVs, how fast? To electrify the global light vehicle parc by 2050, EV production needs to reach 50 million units/year by 2035 That’s 2 million more units a year for 23 years

14. To make growth like that happen Better electric cars are not the only solution.

15. The value of ‘feebates’ Carrot-and-stick incentives can change consumer and supplier behaviour better than carrots or sticks alone

16. Big questions on EV infrastructure It’s question of space and time How many charging points? How fast?

17. Supporting one car for the price of two? Should every parking space have a charging point?

18. The structure of public recharging markets Who should own the power? And the hardware?

19. Ramping up EV production What’s needed to reach mass-market EV volumes across the automotive industry?

20. Competitive products are the prime requirement Changing a billion-plus cars to EVs is a task far beyond the capacity of state subsidy

21. EVs should be game-changers A different logic for vehicle architecture A different logic for retailing More people, more vehicles, no more space: a more restrictive mobility market

22. Replacing oil - possibly the greatest disruption any industry has faced