Electric Trucks - Global Markets.pptx
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This document discusses electric trucks, including their history, variations, key players, market growth, strengths, weaknesses, and how consumers prefer to purchase them. Electric trucks have existed for over a hundred years, typically using lead-acid batteries, and battery technologies have rapidly advanced in the 21st century. While the electric truck market is growing, challenges remain around charging infrastructure and higher costs compared to diesel trucks. Government policies can help address barriers and incentivize further adoption.
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Electric Trucks - Global Markets.pptx
- 2. Moore’s Law In 1936 T.P. Wright, aerospace engineer and later an official in the FDR and Truman presidencies, determined that for every doubling of airplane production the labor requirement was reduced by 10-15%. produced. Now known as “Wright’s Law”, or experience curve effects, Wright’s paper described that “we learn by doing” and that the cost of each unit produced decreases as a function of the cumulative number of units produced. Wright’s Law According to Wright’s Law, lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery cell costs fall by 28% for every cumulative doubling of units
- 3. ELECTRIC TRUCKS : WHERE THEY MAKE SENSE ● An electric truck is an electric vehicle powered by batteries designed to transport cargo, carry specialized payloads, or perform other utilitarian work. ● Electric trucks have serviced niche applications like milk floats, pushback tugs and forklifts for over a hundred years, typically using lead-acid batteries, with rapid development of lighter and more energy-dense battery chemistries in the twenty-first century. ● Battery electric commercial vehicles are here today and are a growing alternative to traditional diesel, alternative fuel, and hybrid powertrains.
- 4. Electric Truck Variations General Trucks Pickup trucks Semi-trailer Milk float Offroad and Mining Trucks Tractor Trucks
- 5. Key Players - Commercial Market ESTABLISHED UPSTART
- 6. Key Players - Consumer Market ESTABLISHED UPSTART
- 7. MARKET GROWTH A record three million electric cars were registered globally last year, 41 percent higher than in 2020. That trend has continued into 2021 with 2.5 as many registrations recorded as during the same period last year. The growth is being driven by strong sales in Europe and China with 450,000 and 500,000 EVs sold, respectively. Europe surpasses China as the world’s largest EV market for all time.
- 8. Strengths ● Significantly lower maintenance costs when compared to regular trucks ● Self-driving EV trucks improve fuel economy by ten percent ● Reduced emissions lower carbon footprint and lead to cleaner energy ● Quieter motors in EV trucks reduce fleet noise for early morning and late night trips
- 10. Weaknesses ● Not enough charging outlets to meet the current and projected demand ● Not easy to alleviate range anxiety amongst logistics and commercial companies ● Race to Lithium and Cobalt mining could result in the exploitation of resources and the local populace ● Rise in the costs of electricity could create market unpredictability
- 13. How they would prefer to purchase an EV ● Traditional Dealership dominates the selling in the whole US. ● Arguing that traditional dealerships and direct-to-consumer sales should coexist, EV startups are waging a campaign for access to state markets that currently only allow dealerships or online sales.
- 14. EV Rate of Adoption United States In 2020# of charging stations grew by18% 2015- 2019, charging stations nearly doubled
- 15. EV Rate of Adoption Europe 900,000+EV sold in just 2020
- 16. Comparative Development - US, EU, & China
- 17. Charging Stations in the Developing World
- 18. Estimated Electricity Demand from the Electric Vehicle Fleet by Country and Region, 2030 United States, China, Europe have the largest demand. India and the Rest of the World are lagging behind with adoption
- 19. Government Barriers for Adoption of Electric Vehicles Infrastructure & Development Lack of charging network and cost of transition is higher compared to continue using gasoline. Developing Nations Economic Conditions Currently, electric vehicles are more costly than cheaper gas vehicles or using older vehicles. Developing Nations Fossil Fuel Reliability Oil production is a prominent part of the GDP and would threaten economics of the country. Texas, Venezuela, Middle East, Mexico Tariffs & Domestic Industry Import cost is too high from countries that manufacture EVs. EV sales may impact sales of domestic companies. India, Developing Nations
- 20. Government Incentives for the EV Industry EVs are given special permissions to use carpool lanes and free parking. California, EU Paying Consumers to switch to an EV. United States, EU, China Governments give corporate tax incentives to EV manufacturers. California, Germany, US Tax Credits for Manufacturers Tax Rebates Commuter Benefits Registration Tax based on carbon emissions of vehicles. EU, Japan, China, Canada, Mexico, South Korea Registration Tax Commercial Credit Fast Charge Stations Building Charging Stations commercially in new construction EU, US, California, NJ, NY Tax Credits for companies to switch fleet over to EV United States, Canada, UK Japan, China, EU
Editor's Notes
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rise-electric-vehicle/
- Electric Trucks and Buses are on the rise and that’s good since nearly 30% of Climate damaging emissions come from transportation nationwide. Switching to electric trucks and powering them with clean energy like solar and wind will slash out the emissions helping in climate change, 2021 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the electric vehicle. While this is true across weight classes and duty cycles, perhaps none are better positioned for growth than trucks.
- When we talk about variety of trucks we are talking about consumer trucks and Commercial Trucks: General : Used for Logistics and transport cargo, specialised payload or perform other utilitarian work Pickup Truck : is a light-duty truck that has an enclosed cabin and an open cargo area with low sides and tailgate. Used as Passenger car and Lifestyle. Semi Trailer : Semi-trailer trucks are widely used to transport heavy products. Transporters prefer them because of their strength and versatility. Semi-trucks also provide job opportunities to many drivers. You must have seen them many times on the road hauling heavy loads. Milk Float : A common example of the battery electric trucks is the milk float. Because such vehicles make many stops, it is more practical to use an electric vehicle than a combustion truck, which would be idling much of the time; it also reduces noise in residential areas. For most of the 20th century, the majority of the world's battery electric road vehicles were British milk floats. Offroad and Mining: Electric mining trucks have the benefit of not polluting underground. In case of high-altitude mines, the downhill trip with ore recharges the batteries due to regenerative braking. Tractor Trucks: A Truck Tractor is a vehicle configuration consisting of a power-unit designed to draw/pull a semi-trailer. Thus, the truck tractor itself has no cargo carrying capability without an attached semi-trailer. is a heavy-duty truck used for hauling large loads. Technically, they're Class 7 or Class 8 vehicles.
- Mercedes-Benz GenH2 Truck, a fuel-cell truck with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers for long-haul transport – customer trials in 2023, start of series production in second half of this decade. Mercedes-Benz eActros LongHaul, a battery-electric truck with a range of about 500 kilometers for energy-efficient transport on plannable long-haul routes – projected to be ready for series production in 2024. Volvo VNR Electrics for local and regional distribution, pickup and delivery, and food and beverage distribution in the region, 150 mile range and battery charge of up to 80% in 70 minutes. Tesla Semi claims to offer a fuel savings of $200,000+ has a range of 300 or 500 mi (480 or 800 km) Anheuser-Busch, DHL Group, PepsiCo, Pride Group and Walmart put money down for the class 8 UK-based startup Arrival, which has signed a contract with UPS for 10,000 delivery vans, plans to open a second microfactory in the US, not too far from its first one in York County, South Carolina, that will produce electric buses. ... This second microfactory will produce electric vans starting late next year
- Ford plans to make the largest ever U.S. investment in electric vehicles at one time by any automotive manufacturer. Ford is investing $22 billion in electrification through 2025 as part of its plan to lead electrification in areas of strength Ford revealed the 2022 F-150 Lightning pickup truck early this June. The new Lightning will showcase many interesting features not present in other EVs or F-150s alike. In case of a power outage, the Lightning's battery can be utilized as a home power source for up to 10 days. GMC Early this April, GMC revealed its Hummer electric pickup truck. Unlike the Cybertruck and F-150 Lightning, the Hummer EV is significantly higher on the Pricing Spectrum. Production of the “Edition 1” trim is scheduled to start in fall 2021. General Motors has big plans when it comes to the electric vehicle segment, aiming to launch 30 new EV models worldwide by 2025. Rivian Rivian, Electric Truck Maker Backed by Amazon and Ford. The company, which has raised more than $10 billion from investors that include Amazon and Ford Motor. Rivian is aiming to list its shares at a valuation of roughly $70 billion, a person familiar with the matter said. That would be higher than the market capitalization of Ford, making the company one of the most valuable automakers in the world and It will beat the electric GMC Hummer pickup Truck from GM expected by the end of the year and Ford’s Electric F-150 lightning. Tesla There is a winner in the race to build the first consumer-ready electric pickup truck and it isn't Tesla, Ford or General Motors. The Tesla Cybertruck is designed to have the utility of a truck and the performance of a sports car. The vehicle is built to be durable, versatile, and capable, with exceptional performance both on-road and off-road. Production expected to begin in late 2021 With a range of over 500 miles expected in top trim, the Cybertruck proves to be among the most capable, in terms of range, of any of the electric trucks coming onto the scene.
- Market Growth The electric truck market was valued at around USD 20 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach USD 44 billion by 2026, and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 14.30 % during the forecast period (2021 - 2026).The electric truck market was valued at around USD 20 billion in 2020, and it is expected to reach USD 44 billion by 2026, and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 14.30 % during the forecast period (2021 - 2026). https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190619005425/en/Electric-Truck-Market-Worth-309.39-Thousand-Units-at-32-CAGR-During-2019-2023-Technavio In 2020, customers spent $120 billion on electric car purchases and governments supported them with $14 billion in subsidies, a 25 percent increase on 2019. This was driven by strong incentives in Europe that have seen the continent surpass China as the world's largest EV market for the first time. 52 % of the
- Owning an Electric Truck brings lower maintenance costs when compared to normal trucks. For example, Lordstown predicts a 37% savings over a 5-year period with its electric Endurance pickup versus a gas-powered F-150. TuSimple, a unique tech San Diego company, have designed a system wherein their autonomous trucks use brakes less than trucks operated by human drivers, thereby leading to an improvement by fuel economy by ten percent. Heavy-duty trucks are expected to contribute 41 percent of all road vehicle Carbon Dioxide emissions and 80 percent of black carbon emissions by 2030. EV Trucks have reduced emissions which lower the carbon footprint and result in cleaner energy. When we compare Electric Vehicles as a whole to Gasoline operated Vehicles, the Carbon Dioxide emissions is three times lesser in EV Vehicles. I will show you the graph in a while. The motors in EV trucks are quieter when compared to the motors in regular trucks. When EV trucks are used for early morning and late night trips in smaller towns and sleepy neighborhoods, it would be especially be easy not just on the air but also on the ears. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/carbon-footprint-of-trucking/
- Globally, the Carbon Dioxide emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles are projected to rise from 4.5 gigatons in 2019 to 8.2 gigatons in 2050. In the seven year span from 2011 to 2018, the annual emissions from diesel vehicles increased by 21.7 million tonnes. Looking ahead, the emissions from all Heavy Duty Vehicles are estimated to account for 41 percent of all road transport emissions in 2030. To reduce carbon footprint and move to environmentally sustainable energy, Electric Trucks are absolutely key.
- https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-global-demand-for-lithium/ 1. The biggest challenge facing the transition to Electric Trucks is the lack of sufficient charging stations and charging outlets. Just in the U.S., there are 97,589 charging outlets for all Electric Vehicles across the country. By 2035, the number of charging outlets needed to proportionally meet the demand of projected electric vehicles on the road is 1.8 million. Meeting this target looks highly optimistic at the moment. 2. Range anxiety is the fear that your Electric Vehicle would run out charge before reaching the required destination. Especially from the point of view of Electric Trucks, convincing commercial and logistics companies to buy them could be another obstacle as they would be concerned about the reliability of getting their supplies from point A to point B. 3. Lithium-Cobalt Batteries are powering the Electric Vehicle revolution. The reason why Lithium-Cobalt Batteries are unrivalled are because of their high energy density and recyclability. And the race to mining them is not just harmful for the environment holding a finite amount of these critical resources but it is also exploitative on the local populace working on the mining process. 4. Rise in the costs of electricity could create a sense of market unpredictability. For example, the average price per kilowatt-hour of electricity in the UK in the 2019 and 2020 was around 18 pence. It has grown to 24 pence per kilowatt-hour in September 2021. An electric vehicle with a 50 kilowatt-hour battery cost 9.50 British Pounds to fill at 2020’s average rate. At the rate of September 2021, the same electric vehicle costs around 13 British pounds to fill up to last approximately 200 miles. The rising price of electricity could increase the cost of charging in the years to come. As logistics companies are really big on profit margins, convincing them to adopt to electric trucks would be challenging.
- The dealerships have pushed back and are welcome to operate within the existing system Meanwhile, legacy automakers like GM that have begun working toward goals of producing all EVs in the next decade have repeatedly said they are committed to their franchise relationships, though they also plan to move more toward online sales and a new consumer experience.
- Veloz, GoodCarBadCar Single charging units vs multi charging stations Doubled, up 18% US 300,000, california is half of that, but EV is only 2%
- EAFO, Statista, EU Highest chargers per capita, and growing 900,000 ev sold in 2020 (double the population of europe)
- IEA Right now china has the largest market share of electric vehicles in the world That will continue to grow in 2030, and grow exponentially in 2040
- Outlook is a bit different outside of the 3 largest economies, you can count the amount of stations in south africa Mexico has 1 station per 1 million people And while development in the middle east is happening, it is limited in a few african countries However south east asia is interested in the adoption, despite how difficult it is for charging stations. https://theaseanpost.com/sites/default/files/13981_5.jpg, https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/middle-east-africa-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-market
- Even larger countries struggle with the adoption, india and the rest of the world lag behind china, japan, us, and eu
- https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/real-barriers-to-electric-vehicle-adoption
- https://www.fleetcarma.com/countries-best-incentives-ev-purchases/ https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/05/how-electric-car-incentives-around-the-world-work.html https://www.chargepoint.com/incentives/federal-charging-incentives/ In Europe, the European Union (EU) is committed to achieve its 20% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2020 for the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol (base year: 1990). The EU has also set the target to achieve 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2040 compared to 1990. By 2050, the EU aims to achieve the target of 0% greenhouse gas emission. The regulation EU 253/2014 sets the target of 147 gm of CO2 emission per kilometer for 2020 and 2021, for light commercial vehicles (LCVs), based on the NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) test procedure. The European Union set a target of 31% reduction of CO2 emission for LCVs by 2030. In the United States, the EPA and NHTSA have proposed the implementation of the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) vehicles rule to be implemented from 2021 to 2026. The rule may set the standards for corporate average fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions for passenger and light trucks. The Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Program requires OEMs to sell specific numbers of clean and zero emission vehicles (electric, hybrid, and fuel cell powered commercial and passenger vehicles). The ZEV plan aims at putting 12 million ZEVs on road by 2030.