5 Things You Need to Know About the Coming Trump vs. Clinton ShowdownAtif Fareed
What to expect if The Donald doesn’t change course, and what to expect if he does.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-things-you-should-know-213875#ixzz48Ld19944
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
From Baylor Law "Peoples Law School" February 9, 2019 presentation by David Schleicher. Some of the later slides involve items for discussion as to whether particular findings would be likely or not to garner a 2/3rds vote for conviction in the Senate. Earlier slides cover rules governing Special Counsel. If any questions or comments, David's email is david@gov.law
2017.04.06 how should we elect our leadersNUI Galway
Dr Ashley Piggins, Economics, gave this talk entitled "How should we elect our leaders?" on behalf of the Group Decision Making research cluster as part of the 2017 Whitaker Institute Research Day on the 6th of April 2017 at NUI Galway.
The US elections- the most awaited event of the year, is now out of the way. It should be in the rear-view mirror for us, already looking forward and contemplating what a Biden Presidency will look like; perhaps musing on the legacy of the most erratic, divisive and possibly dangerous presidency in living memory. But that is not to be. The elections are over. Check. The results are known. Check.
"Touching, Traces: 2020 Election Diaries"
By Tamiko Thiel, 2020/2021
Giclée prints 21x29cm printed on 30cm x 38cm Hahnemühle paper.
In the coronavirus crisis we are now hyperaware of the surfaces we touch, and of the traces that may or may not be on those surfaces. Indeed, for those alone in self-isolation, our mobile devices are now the surfaces we touch and stroke most intimately and most often.
These are prints from my 2020 Election Diaries, records of my frantic "doomscrolling" on news sites and Facebook on key days of the 2020 election. Living in Europe, isolated from the events in the USA by time and distance, trying to make to make sense of the weird events and the weeks of uncertainty and suspense, and seeking solace in my online community of friends and media analysts.
WHY DONALD TRUMP AND BITCOIN ARE BOTH UNSTOPPABLESteven Rhyner
What do Bitcoin and U.S. Republican Presidential front runner Donald Trump have in common? Both are new to their respective arenas, both are highly disruptive to existing power structures, and both, at this point, are unstoppable.
5 Things You Need to Know About the Coming Trump vs. Clinton ShowdownAtif Fareed
What to expect if The Donald doesn’t change course, and what to expect if he does.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-things-you-should-know-213875#ixzz48Ld19944
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
From Baylor Law "Peoples Law School" February 9, 2019 presentation by David Schleicher. Some of the later slides involve items for discussion as to whether particular findings would be likely or not to garner a 2/3rds vote for conviction in the Senate. Earlier slides cover rules governing Special Counsel. If any questions or comments, David's email is david@gov.law
2017.04.06 how should we elect our leadersNUI Galway
Dr Ashley Piggins, Economics, gave this talk entitled "How should we elect our leaders?" on behalf of the Group Decision Making research cluster as part of the 2017 Whitaker Institute Research Day on the 6th of April 2017 at NUI Galway.
The US elections- the most awaited event of the year, is now out of the way. It should be in the rear-view mirror for us, already looking forward and contemplating what a Biden Presidency will look like; perhaps musing on the legacy of the most erratic, divisive and possibly dangerous presidency in living memory. But that is not to be. The elections are over. Check. The results are known. Check.
"Touching, Traces: 2020 Election Diaries"
By Tamiko Thiel, 2020/2021
Giclée prints 21x29cm printed on 30cm x 38cm Hahnemühle paper.
In the coronavirus crisis we are now hyperaware of the surfaces we touch, and of the traces that may or may not be on those surfaces. Indeed, for those alone in self-isolation, our mobile devices are now the surfaces we touch and stroke most intimately and most often.
These are prints from my 2020 Election Diaries, records of my frantic "doomscrolling" on news sites and Facebook on key days of the 2020 election. Living in Europe, isolated from the events in the USA by time and distance, trying to make to make sense of the weird events and the weeks of uncertainty and suspense, and seeking solace in my online community of friends and media analysts.
WHY DONALD TRUMP AND BITCOIN ARE BOTH UNSTOPPABLESteven Rhyner
What do Bitcoin and U.S. Republican Presidential front runner Donald Trump have in common? Both are new to their respective arenas, both are highly disruptive to existing power structures, and both, at this point, are unstoppable.
Post election chaos 12 nov 2020 - war room slideshiddenlevers
Monday morning quarterbacking is finally possible a week after US elections. The clean result was a nice surprise, but is now fully priced in on the upside. The next few months before inauguration will be filled with a health care system unable to cure record covid infections, and a Fed unable to cure main street ailments.
What is the 2021 impact of divided government?
Will the govt stimulus delays tip vulnerable sectors into the abyss?
What’s the lag between the vaccine market boost and GDP normalcy?
Take a look as we re-assess the shape of the recovery and learn the history of toxic lame ducks.
The Electoral System of the USA // The 2012 Presidential ElectionValentinSchraub
I have created this presentation for an English exam in my last year at the Immanuel Kant high school in Leinfelden, Germany. It is about the 2012 presidential election in the United States and its electoral system. I got 14 out of 15 credits for this presentation and after it I conducted a spontaneous survey among the 15 students on who they would vote for if they were Americans. 13 out of 15 voted for Barack Obama, the remaining two for Mitt Romney.
In today's political environment, is it possible to have the kinds of conversation that makes democracy meaningful? The Twin Cities Election Forum worked to produce a list of reasons why Twin Cities voters might support each of the major-party presidential candidates and to cultivate understanding across the partisan divide.
Post election chaos 12 nov 2020 - war room slideshiddenlevers
Monday morning quarterbacking is finally possible a week after US elections. The clean result was a nice surprise, but is now fully priced in on the upside. The next few months before inauguration will be filled with a health care system unable to cure record covid infections, and a Fed unable to cure main street ailments.
What is the 2021 impact of divided government?
Will the govt stimulus delays tip vulnerable sectors into the abyss?
What’s the lag between the vaccine market boost and GDP normalcy?
Take a look as we re-assess the shape of the recovery and learn the history of toxic lame ducks.
The Electoral System of the USA // The 2012 Presidential ElectionValentinSchraub
I have created this presentation for an English exam in my last year at the Immanuel Kant high school in Leinfelden, Germany. It is about the 2012 presidential election in the United States and its electoral system. I got 14 out of 15 credits for this presentation and after it I conducted a spontaneous survey among the 15 students on who they would vote for if they were Americans. 13 out of 15 voted for Barack Obama, the remaining two for Mitt Romney.
In today's political environment, is it possible to have the kinds of conversation that makes democracy meaningful? The Twin Cities Election Forum worked to produce a list of reasons why Twin Cities voters might support each of the major-party presidential candidates and to cultivate understanding across the partisan divide.
In anticipation of the second Democratic primary debates, we’ve put together a brief Election 2020 snapshot outlining where things stand heading into the debates and what to watch for during the two-night event.
US elections : Media & Current Affairs : Student CollaborationAli Haider Saeed
An illustration of student-teacher collaborative discussion model in the subject of Media & Current Affairs during the Fall session 2020, Students engaged in the discussion on US General Elections 2020
write a few sentences for each a,b & c . In your opinion, how do.pdffazilfootsteps
* write a few sentences for each a,b & c .
In your opinion, how does the voting rights of convicted felons impact on
a) political
b)social
c) economic
Solution
a)Political:
As per Uggen and Manza, there\'s various races where Democrats have endured because of
felony disenfranchisement. They trust that since felons couldn\'t vote, Republican competitors
had a \"little however clear\" favorable position over Democrats in each presidential and
senatorial race cycle from 1972 to 2000, incorporating races in Virginia, Georgia, Texas,
Kentucky, and Wyoming.
The most remarkable, and most faced off regarding, is the 2000 race that put George W. Hedge
in the White House. He prevailed upon Democrat Al Gore by picking up Florida\'s 25
discretionary school votes by 537 votes in the prevalent decision.
In 2000, Florida had in excess of 827,000 detainees and previous felons who weren\'t allowed to
vote. Uggen and Manza gauge that 68.9% would have voted Democrat. They evaluated the
turnout at 27.2%. That would have given the Democrats an additional 155,025 votes and Gore
would have prevailed upon Bush by very nearly 85,000 votes. Regardless of whether turnout
among felons and prisoners was only 13.1%, Gore would have scored enough additional votes to
have won Florida and the presidential decision.
Not every person concurs with Uggen and Manza. Traci Burch, political researcher and partner
educator at Northwestern University, says that since Florida\'s felon populace was to a great
extent white, the dominant part would have voted in favor of Bush, and the consequence of the
race would have stay unaltered.
As far as constituent outcomes, President Obama would have added 2.6pt to his 0.9pt Florida
edge had felons and ex-felons been permitted to vote. Regardless of whether we simply tally ex-
felons, it would have been 2.2pt. Al Gore would have effectively won the state given this
information. Obama would have attached another 1.6pt to his 3.9pt win in the swing territory of
Virginia in the event that it had the felon voting tenets of Maine or Vermont. It would at present
have been an extra 1.2pt including just ex-felons – as permitted in most by far of states.
b)social:Losing one\'s voting rights propagates sentiments of estrangement, doubt of government
and a sentiment of weakness. It makes the disappointed more averse to draw in with or add to
their locale. Weaver and Lerman found that wherever people are denied of voting rights, their
families, neighbors, kindred church individuals don\'t go to the surveys on race day either. That
six million populace who doesn\'t vote due to its inclusion with the criminal equity framework
can turn out to be considerably greater.
c)Economic:
The disenfranchisement of felons has a long history that is firmly fixing to the early English
routine with regards to reallocating an indicted felon\'s bequest before he was killed. In the
United States, felon disenfranchisement was utilized by Southern states in the Jim Crow Era, and.
Markets are priced for a soft landing and bad news could disrupt returns but based on starting yields it would be hard to get a negative return. How will high yield bond spreads be influenced by the economy's ability to achieve a soft landing?
Will the economy experience a soft economic landing as inflation decreases or will the change to inflation be more than expected? Is a hard economic landing still possible?
Will geopolitical sentiment resemble the post Berlin Wall era and cause an uproar in the the equity markets? Or will hostilities towards the US increase?
What impacts will the Midterm Election have on the strength of the economy? Will we experience typical Midterm performance or will inflationary pressures control the market?
What impacts will the Midterm Election have on on the strength of the economy? Will we experience typical Midterm performance or will inflationary pressures control the market?
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
5. ELECTION CHAOS GRIDLOCK
sources: HiddenLevers, Wikipedia
Most outcomes lead to Gridlock – 51 seats is NOT a Senate Sweep
Trump + GOP Congress
Trump + Dem Congress
Biden + GOP Congress
Biden + Split Congress
Biden + Dem Congress
Trump + Split CongressStatus Quo = Gridlock
exec
senate
house
zero chance in 2020
weak control at best
GOP
GOP 53/47
DEM 235/197
Past Senate Sweeps
1994 GOP +10
2008 DEM +10
6. sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes
Elections have NO impact on
stock market long term
ELECTION CHAOS PRESIDENTIAL RETURNS
Only Incumbents to lose were
Carter (1980) + Bush (1992)
7. sources: HiddenLevers, LPL Research
Returns usually higher in Nov/Dec than Sep/Oct in election years
Pre-Election
Fizzle
Post-Election
Rally
ELECTION CHAOS MARKETS LIKE CERTAINTY
8. ELECTION CHAOS BEWARE OF AGENDAS
sources: HiddenLevers, Fidelity
^^ Points to GOP as better choice for markets ^^
Election Winner Oct-Dec S&P %Δ Same Congress?
1928 Hoover +15.1% Yes
1932 FDR -0.4 Yes
1936 FDR +4.1 Yes
1940 FDR -1.7 Yes
1944 FDR +4.5 Yes
1948 Truman -5.1 No
1952 Eisenhower +8.1 Yes
1956 Eisenhower +0.5 No
1960 JFK +7.6 Yes
1964 LBJ -0.6 Yes
1968 Nixon +0.8 No
1972 Ford +7.7 No
1976 Carter +4.8 Yes
1980 Reagan +4.6 No (Split)
1984 Reagan +0.6 No (Split)
1988 HW Bush -0.1 No
1992 Clinton +8.2 Yes
1996 Clinton +6.8 No
2000 Bush -7.8 Yes
2004 Bush +7.1 Yes
2008 Obama -22.2 Yes
2012 Obama -1.2 No (Split)
2016 Trump +3.6 Yes
9. ELECTION CHAOS BEWARE OF AGENDAS
NO GOP until 1850s
(Lincoln)
Markets like certainty, not concerned with party
sources: HiddenLevers, Fidelity
Election Winner Oct-Dec S&P %Δ Same Congress?
1928 Hoover +15.1% Yes
1932 FDR -0.4 Yes
1936 FDR +4.1 Yes
1940 FDR -1.7 Yes
1944 FDR +4.5 Yes
1948 Truman -5.1 No
1952 Eisenhower +8.1 Yes
1956 Eisenhower +0.5 No
1960 JFK +7.6 Yes
1964 LBJ -0.6 Yes
1968 Nixon +0.8 No
1972 Ford +7.7 No
1976 Carter +4.8 Yes
1980 Reagan +4.6 No (Split)
1984 Reagan +0.6 No (Split)
1988 HW Bush -0.1 No
1992 Clinton +8.2 Yes
1996 Clinton +6.8 No
2000 Bush -7.8 Yes
2004 Bush +7.1 Yes
2008 Obama -22.2 Yes
2012 Obama -1.2 No (Split)
2016 Trump +3.6 Yes
10. sources: HiddenLevers, Project 538, CNBC
MovingRIGHTMovingLEFT
Iowa Ohio Nevada Pennsylvania
Georgia Texas Colorado Virginia
Florida
Perennial
Swing State
ELECTION CHAOS SWING STATES
2020
11. ELECTION CHAOS RE-ELECTION ODDS
Probability of Winning 2020 Election
Probability of Winning 2016 Election
Biden
Trump
2016: Wider swings in win probability
2020: Very little variation in win probability
SAME
SAME
sources: HiddenLevers, Ladbrokes, Project 538
12. sources: DonaldJTrump.com, JoeBiden.com, Tax Foundation, US Treasury, BEA, Motley Fool, HiddenLevers
• COVID Stimulus 2.0
• SALT Deductions Reinstated
LIKELY
• Covid Stimulus 2.0
• Infrastructure Bill
• Corp Tax Increase
• Income Tax Increases on HNW
• Covid Stimulus 2.0
• Tax Credits to Repatriate Jobs
TRUMP WINS /
SENATE STAYS GOP
BIDEN WINS /
SENATE STAYS GOP
PERCEIVED
• Cap Gains Tax Increases
• Unemployment Perma-boost
• Increased Financial Regulation
ELECTION CHAOS POTENTIAL 2021 POLICY
DEMOCRATS
SWEEP
SAME
SAME
13. ELECTION CHAOS TRUMP STRATEGY
sources: HiddenLevers
OPTICS VICTORIES EXEC AGENCY MEDDLING
FED
3 rate cuts in 2019 during
up-trending GDP + equity market
CDC
moving responsibility for pandemic
data to HHS
Census Bureau
wrapped up several weeks early to
“avoid White House meddling”
USPS
‘nuff said
USMCA TRADE WAR
OCT SURPRISE:
VACCINE ANNOUNCEMENT
15. ELECTION CHAOS TRUMP’S OWN WORDS
sources: HiddenLevers, HBO/Axios
Kenosha, Wisconsin NOW
You know, you could have a
case where this election
won’t be decided on the
evening of November 3rd.
This election could be
decided two months later.
It could be decided many
months later. You know
why?
Because lots of things will
happen during that period
of time.
Especially when you have
tight margins, lots of things
can happen.
03 August 2020
16. ELECTION CHAOS BUSH/GORE 2000
sources: HiddenLevers, Constitution Center, US Elections Atlas
FLORIDA 2000 LESSONS OF 2000 ELECTION
7 Nov 2000:
Election Day
Supreme Court
ends vote count
Market bottom
12/20, shortly
after electors
cast votes
Supreme Court has final say on
whether recount attempts are valid
State statutes on counting deadlines
(FL – 1 week) make manual recounts
difficult without court intervention
Election law requires states to send
electoral votes to Congress by 23 Dec
MDD
-11.8%
SPX -12%
NASDAQ -23%
19. ELECTION CHAOS UGLY
EOY profit taking
normal
perception
outweighs reality
record highs for
equities + gold
Cap Gains Panic
20. GOOD
S+P 500
2950
-15%
S+P 500
3650
+5%
S+P 500
3130
-10%
BAD
PROFIT TAKING IN 2020 TO
AVOID FUTURE
TAX UNCERTAINTY
POPULAR + ELECTORAL
COLLEGE VICTORY WITH NO
DISPUTE FROM OPPOSITION
MAIL FAILS + LEGAL DISPUTES
LEAD TO CONTESTED RESULT,
SUPREME COURT RULING,
AND CIVIL UNREST
ELECTION CHAOS MACRO RISK PARITY
NASDAQ
10.3K
-12%
BASELINE
10Y
0.5%
(-19bps)
10Y
0.75%
(+6bps)
10Y
0.55%
(-14bps)
NASDAQ
12.5K
+7%
NASDAQ
9300
-20%
Cap Gains Panic
Clean Result
Legal Challenges
21. Contested Election likely, and benefits Trump more
than Biden
Diminishing Coronavirus concerns raise Trump
approval in swing states
Markets care about certainty, not who wins
Voter Suppression is built into American elections
and is often unintentional
ELECTION CHAOS WHAT TO SAY