General overview of 2008 results and preview of 2010 races.

1. Penultimate Draft 1

2. WHAT IS FILIBANTER?
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3. Jim Ellis’ Political Baseball Card
Hometown: Sacramento, California
Rookie Season: San Diego County Republican Party,
and then served as an original staff member for then-
Congressman Bill Lowery (R-CA).
All Star: Served as consultant to three national
Republican Party organizations in DC, the National
Federation of Independent Business, and various
national conservative groups.
Position: Provides political analysis for clients that
include corporations such as AT&T, UPS, DuPont, and
Wal-Mart, as well as lobbying organizations and trade
associations.
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4. Bennet Kelley’s Political Baseball Card
Hometown: Providence, Rhode Island.
Rookie Season:: Senator Claiborne Pell’s re-
election campaign and also worked in Capitol
Hill and District Offices.
All Star: Co-founded and was National Co-
Chair for the Democratic National Committee’s
Saxophone Club, its young professional
fundraising and outreach arm during Clinton
era.
Position: Award winning political columnist for
Huffington Post and Santa Monica Daily Press.
Founder Internet Law Center.
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5. Filibanter Provides
Unique Insights
on Post-Partisan
Washington
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6. Post Partisan?
We tried that in my
country.
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7. OK, that was wishful thinking.
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8. You Can Hear Them Every Thursday
on
Straight Talk with Melissa Hopkins
Or read their Point-Counterpoint
postings on Politics Magazine’s
Campaign Insider Blog
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9. In our last episode . . .
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10. Source: Wikipedia
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11. Changes from 2004
9 States +
Nebraska (02)
Switched from
R to D from 2004
Source270toWin.com
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12. Changes from 1996
Different
coalition than
Clinton’s
1996 Win
Source270toWin.com
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13. Senate: +8 Dems
House: +21 Dems
GOP Suffers Major Set Backs for
2nd Election in a row
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14. GOP Pct of Congressional
Vote by Region (2008)
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15. States GOP/Dems Received 55%
or Higher of Congressional Vote
GOP REGION DEMS
PACIFIC STATES 1
2 BIG SKY + AK 2
ROCKY MT 1
2 PLAINS 2
INDUSTRIAL MIDWEST 3
BORDER STATES 1
2 CONFEDERATE STATES 2
MID ATL (EXCL DC) 4
NEWENGLAND 4
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16. Highest Turnout since 1968
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17. …Ah, to be Young Again
2008 Youth (18-24) vote
12.5 million - All-time record
Accounted for 2/3rds of increased
turnout
66% for Obama
Carried approx. 40 states
2-1 Party ID advantage for Dems
Photo by Phoney Nickle
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18. African Americans
Since 2004:
2% increase of overall
electorate
4 million new voters
21.7% more voted than
2004
Photo: Damon Winter
Key factor in NC and
VA switching
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19. What Year is It?
• Republicans hope
Health Care will lead to
repeat of 1994
– House: +54, Senate + 8
• High unemployment could
parallel 1982
– House: +27, Senate + 1
GOP EYE EXAM Penultimate Draft 19

20. 1934?
• Democrats hope for first New Deal
midterm
– House: +9, Senate +9
(despite high unemployment)
– High Disapproval of Cong. GOP
– Only 29% believe acting in good faith
• Backlash against GOP Congress
helped Clinton avoid midterm losses
in ‘98
– House: +5, Senate – NC
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21. For Some House Members
Election Day is Friday the 13th
21 House Democrats are in District where Obama Vote
Was 10% or More Below National Result
AL: Bright (2nd), Griffith (5th), MS: Taylor (4th), Children (1st)
Berry (1sT) OK: Boren (2nd)
AR: Berry (1st), Ross (4th) TN: Davis (4th), Gordon (6th),
GA: Marshall (8th) Tanner (8th)
ID: Minnick (1st) TX: Edwards (17th)
KY: Chandler (6th) UT: Matheson (2nd)
LA: Melancon (3rd) VA: Boucher (9th)
MD: Kratovil (1st) WV: Mollohan (1st), Rahall (3rd)
MO: Skelton (4th)
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22. For Some House Members
Election Day is Friday the 13th
40%
In 14 Districts Obama Got Less Than 40%
AL: Bright (2nd), Griffith (5th), MS: Taylor (4th), Children (1st)
Berry (1sT) OK: Boren (2nd)
AR: Berry (1st), Ross (4th) TN: Davis (4th), Gordon (6th)
ID: Minnick (1st) TX: Edwards (17th)
TX:
UT: Matheson (2nd)
LA: Melancon (3rd)
MO: Skelton (4th)
MO:
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23. Friday the 13th Part 2
Joe Cao (LA-2) is the only
(LA-
Republican House Member in
District where McCain vote was
10% or more below the national
result
Obama carried the
district with 74%
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24. Cardinal Rules of
American Politics
#1 - All politics is local
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25. Cardinal Rules of
American Politics
#1 - All politics is local
#2 – Never forget the first Rule
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26. Look at Races by Region
West: Pacific Coast and Rocky Mountain States East: New England and Mid Atlantic States (PA in Midwest Group)
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South: Confederate States and Border States Midwest: Rust Belt, Great Lakes Region and Plains States

27. The Northeast
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28. 70.00%
Cong. Vote %
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
D
30.00% R
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
2008 Avg. 00-08
3 11
Senate House 2008 EVs
Dem Dem Obama
GOP GOP McCain
17 64 98
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29. Rare Openings in Lion’s Den
Years in Senate for NE Senators
36
Leahy (VT)
Legend –
24
Mikulksi (MD) RED=OPEN SEAT
YELLOW=
YELLOW= IN
PLAY
Dodd (CT) 28
BLACK=SAFE
Kennedy (MA)
48
Biden (DE)
38
Gregg (NH)
18
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
.
© Yaay Penultimate Draft 29

30. The Midwest
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31. Cong. Vote %
60
54
51
48
50
43
40
D
30 R
20
10
0
2008 Avg. 00-08
16
EV
6
Senate House D
D 49 R
D
R
63 R
17 118
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32. The Main Event
• Open Senate Seats in IL and
OH
• 2 Dem and 2 GOP House seats
rated Tossups
• Districts for lightening rods
were listed as merely leaning
GOP:
– Jean Schmidt and
– Michele Bachmann
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33. The South
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34. Cong. Vote
52
51.1
51
49.94
50
49.1
49
48
47 46.4
46
45
44
2008 Avg. 00-08
55
5 EVs
Senate House Dem
Dem 75 Dem Rep
Rep 84 Rep
129
21
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35. Penultimate Draft 35

36. The West
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37. 60.00%
52.45%
50.56%
50.00% 46.11% Cong
43.48%
Vote
40.00%
D
30.00%
R
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
2008 AVG 00-08
28
37 House 10
Senate EVs
DEM DEM DEM
GOP GOP GOP
63 16
96
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38. Battle over boxers
• Harry Reid (former Boxer) in
trouble in NV
• Carly Fiorina to challenge
Barbara Boxer in CA
• Colorado’s Appointed
Senator Bennet in close race
• Major ballot initiatives in AZ
and CA
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39. Beating Goliath
Sen. Scott Lucas
Maj. Leader 1949-1951
Sen. Ernest McFarland
Maj. Leader
1951-1953
Rep. Tom Foley
Speaker
1989-1995 Sen. Tom Daschle
Maj. Leader
2001-2003
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40. Ballot Initiatives
• Tax cuts and increases
• Gay Marriage
• Gambling
• Legalize and Tax
Marijuana
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41. Governor’s Races
• 39 Gubernatorial
elections in 2009-10
• 21 Open Seats
• Ds must protect 21
states; Rs 18
• 12 States Projected to
Switch Parties
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42. Governor’s Races
• 39 Gubernatorial
elections in 2009-10
• 21 Open Seats
• Ds must protect 21
states; Rs 18
• 12 States Projected to
Switch Parties
Will Jerry Brown Orbit
Penultimate Draft the Governor’s Mansion again?
42

43. What Factor Will Race Play?
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44. Penultimate Draft 44

45. Penultimate Draft 45

46. CQ Projections: Senate
Senate
(60 Dems/40 GOP)
44 Dems 16 Dems 16 GOP 24 GOP
Not Up Up Up Not Up
Dem
Safe Likely Leans Dem GOP Leans Safe
Dems Dems Dem Leans GOP Likely GOP
Tossup Tossups
GOP GOP 5
6 4 3 2 5 2 6
1
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47. CQ House Projections
House
(257 Dems/178 GOP)
144 63 Dems 42 GOP 136 GOP
Safe Competitive Competitive Safe
GOP GOP Dem
Likely Leans Dem Leans Likely
Likely Leans Leans
Dem Dem Tossups GOP GOP
Dem Dem GOP
32 27 3 14 24
1 3 1
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48. CQ State House Projections
Governors
28 Dems/22 GOP
GOP GOP
Dem
Dems 16 Not
Not Up/Safe
18 Competitive Seats Competitive Up/Safe
10 Seats 5
GOP GOP DEM Dem
Likely Leans TOSSUP Leans Likely
Likely Leans Leans Likely
Dem Dem 3 Dems GOP GOP
Dem Dem GOP GOP
2 8 4 GOP 5 4
1 2 4 1
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49. Predictions
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50. “Prediction is very difficult,
especially about the future”
Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist
“There is no way Dukakis or anyone for that
matter can blow a 17 point lead.”
Bennet Kelley
Greece (August 1988)
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51. Penultimate Draft 51

52. Penultimate Draft 52