Democrats have won recent elections but face historical headwinds in 2010. Republicans are spending millions on attack ads through outside groups. The DCCC plans to stay on offense, highlight Republican problems, and capitalize on the weak Republican brand. Recent special elections show Democrats effectively countering Republican messages and energizing voters. The tea party movement presents challenges for Republicans by pushing extreme candidates and splitting the Republican vote with third party candidates. Questionable Republican candidates in some races could also aid Democrats. Support for Democratic candidates is encouraged.

2. 48.17mil30.64mil14.7 mil4.3 milThanks to supporters like you, Democrats have won back-to-back wave elections(+30 seats in ’06, +24 seats in ’08, 3 straight competitive special elections in ‘09/’10)

3. In addition to protecting our 2006 and 2008 gains, Democrats face a historical headwind this year

4. Right-Wing Outside GroupsOutside Groups Aiding GOP Cause This Cycle48.17milAided by the Citizens United ruling, groups like Karl Rove’s “American Crossroads are set to spend millions on swift-boat style attack ads

5. 2010 DCCC Game PlanPrepare our Frontline Members & Swing District MembersStay on OffenseCapitalize on GOP’s Problems and Make Election a ChoiceMobilization

6. Making the Elections A ChoiceDemocrats:Working to get the economy on track, creating jobs, fighting for the middle class, and protecting Social Security.Republicans: more unpaid tax cuts for the wealthiest that add billions to the deficit

7. taxpayer funded tax breaks for Big Oil

8. removing the new checks on Wall Street

9. taxpayer funded tax breaks for companies that ship American jobs overseas

10. privatizing Social Security and MedicareCapitalizing on GOP Problems:GOP Brand"The Republican brand is in the trash can...if we were dog food, they would take us off the shelf.“ --Tom Davis, former NRCC ChairRepublican Self ID is at its lowest since 1983– about 20%, and voters’ perception of the party is abysmal.

11. Democrats are trusted more than Republicans to handle the economy by an 8 point margin. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10]

12. Only 26 percent of likely voters have confidence in the Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country‘s future, trailing both Congressional Democrats and President Obama. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10] PA-12 Special Election (May 18, 2010)MarkCritz53%Tim Burns 45%Critz won all but three counties and outperformed Obama in 7 of 9 counties

13. Republican groups outspent Dems $1.5 million to $1.3 million

14. Only district in the country that voted for Kerry and McCainWhat the Pundits Said about the PA-12 GOP Failure“There are two parts to any Republican House campaign: the in-state campaign effort and the independent expenditure side run by the NRCC. In this case, like so many other special elections, neither was up to snuff. Democrats out-thought, out-planned and out-executed Republicans on both sides of the equation. This was not a candidate problem, but a problem in messaging, organization, and technical proficiency…” --Charlie Cook“Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition. Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy.”

15. PA-12 Lessons LearnedCandidates and campaigns matter.Elections are a choice, not a referendum.Democrat vs. Republican message test case: Middle class message trumped GOP effort to nationalize race.Republican agenda effective against Republican candidates. Outsourcing, Privatizing Social Security and Medicare, & the National Sales Tax.DCCC field program is effective and ready.Overcame GOP “enthusiasm gap.”

16. Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party InfluenceThe tea party has presented three problems for Republicans:48.17milExtreme Tea Party candidate beats moderate (and more electable) Republican candidate4.3 milIn November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck

17. Tea Party: Young Gun MisfiresParker GriffithAL-05 (Griffith)Vaughn WardID-01 (Minnick)Coulson & Green IL-10 (Kirk-Open)Ethan Hastert IL-14 (Foster)Jim Gibbons IA-03 (Boswell)Jeff Reetz KY-03 (Yarmuth) Lou Huddleston NC-08 (Kissell)Paul Huber PA-03 (Dahlkemper)

18. Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party InfluenceThe tea party has presented three problems for Republicans:Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base.48.17mil4.3 milIn November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck

19. Capitalizing on GOP Problems:Tea Party InfluenceThe tea party has presented three problems for Republicans:Tea Party candidates run as third party candidates which is splitting the Republican vote. There are more than 100 conservative third party candidates on the ballot. 48.17mil4.3 milIn November 2009, Democrats won a district that had been held by Republicans for 120 years by defeating a tea party candidate backed by Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh, and Glenn Beck

20. Third Party CandidatesMI-07 (Schauer): US Taxpayer Scott AughneyNY-23 (Owens): Conservative Doug HoffmanOH-18 (Space): Libertarian Lindsey SuttonTX-17 (Edwards): Libertarian Richard KellySD-AL (Herseth Sandlin): Independent Thomas MarkingVA-05 (Perriello): Independent Jeffery ClarkVA-02 (Nye): Independent Kenny GoldenFL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart-Open): TEA Party RolyArrojoMI-01 (Stupak-Open): Independent Glen Wilson

21. Flawed Republican CandidatesTX-23 (Rodriguez) Quico Canseco

22. Flawed Republican CandidatesNJ-03 (Adler) Jon Runyan

23. Flawed Republican CandidatesJon RunyanNJ-03 (Adler)Runyan is trying to run as a fiscal conservative, but has abused the farmland assessment program to get an absurd break on his own property taxes and has repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes on time.Michelle RollinsDE-AL (Castle-Open) Her compensation quadrupled when her bank received millions in TARP money on taxpayers’ dimeJim RenacciOH-16 (Boccieri) Trying to run as a fiscal conservative but has abused the farmland assessment program to get an absurd break on his own property taxes and has repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes on time. David HarmerCA-11 (McNerney) While Harmer constantly rails against TARP, the company he worked for paid him a bonus and severance after it took bailout funds.Support our Democratic Candidates dccc.org/frontline dccc.org/redtoblue

24. You Drive Our SuccessYour support has never been more critical. Join our Victory Partners Program today by visiting www.dccc.org/victory