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iv
Contents
Preface ................................................................................................v
Acknowledgement .............................................................................vi
Author’s notes ...................................................................................vii
1 Introduction ................................................................................1
2 Existing Theoretical Landscape ................................................6
3 Campaign ................................................................................. 13
4 Roles in a Campaign ................................................................. 15
5 Campaign-Leader..................................................................... 20
6 Candidate - Categories............................................................. 23
7 Candidates' Style-scripts .......................................................... 34
8 The Electorate........................................................................... 37
9 The Voter's Search .................................................................... 69
10 Strategising the campaign ....................................................... 85
11 For incumbents...................................................................... 104
12 Concluding Notes .................................................................. 123
13 References............................................................................. 124
Soumendra Narain Bagchi
Foundation Publishing House
First Floor, 4, Tulsi Apartment, Govind Mitra Road,
Patna - 800004, Bihar, India
Tel. No. : 0612-2300557, Telefax : 0612-2300819, Mobile : 9031789345
Email : info@fph.co.in, URL : www.fph.co.in
First published in India in 2013 by Foundation Publishing House, Patna
© Soumendra Narain Bagchi 2013
ISBN : 9788192312668
Cover images: By Al Jazeera English : (1. Congress supporters, 2. BJP and Shiv
Sena flags & 3. Samajwadi Socialist Party rally) [CC-BY-SA-2.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Typeset by Author
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Jamshedpur, Jharkhand – 831 006
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The views and opinions expressed in this book are strictly those of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of XLRI, Jamshedpur, and, the
publishers are not in any way liable for the contents of this book.
While every effort has been made to verify the authenticity of the information
contained in this book, the publishers are not in any way liable for the same.
All rights reserved. This book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by
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content taken from creative commons depositories, no reproduction in any form, in
whole or in part, except for quotations for further research on the topic or for
reviews, may be made without written permission of the publishers.
v
Preface
Living in a society is bound to lead to what is called politics, an aggregate of
human aspirations, motives and behaviours. Probably the only humans who
were apolitical were Adam and Eve. But then, politics manifested itself
among the sons of Adam and Eve. From that mythical start, if one were to go
by the Bible, politics has been a constant companion to human beings,
manifesting itself in all types of social groups, irrespective of its settings,
prompting Aristotle to profess that man, by nature, was a political animal.
Reactions to politics vary from a resigned acceptance of its omnipresence, to
a pragmatic opinion about it being a necessity in everyday life, to a more
cynical ‘last refuge of scoundrels’, from being pointed out as the reason for
India’s dismal record in development, to being labelled as the cause of all the
ills of the country. Participation in politics of everyday life evokes reactions
ranging from passionate debates to sceptical dismissal or passive acceptance.
However neither the passionate debate nor the cynical dismissal does anyone
any good. Wishful thinking by citizens waiting for better sense to prevail on
existing politicians or the system to change on its own somewhat miraculously
remains just that. It will take nothing short of a revolution to change things
overnight. Even that, for that matter, does not guarantee that the right people
would be at the top. The history of many a country is proof enough.
The other option, among other possibilities, could be to understand how the
so called 'system' works. Once the heuristics that guide the working of the
system are unravelled, we could perhaps hope that politics would attract
better players. This book is written with that perspective in mind – to decode
the hitherto obscure aspects of election-campaign, and present it as subject to
clear out mental hurdles that often prevent better people from entering
politics, people who may be better suited to the demands of the profession.
This book represents a strategic theory of campaigns in electoral contests,
aiming to provide a coherent basis to allow exploration into victories and
losses in electoral contests.
vi
AcknowledgementAcknowledgementAcknowledgementAcknowledgement
The theory presented in this book had its birth in the month of May 2012 in
the form of a working paper in XLRI. From that stage of infancy, the theory
has grown enough, despite certain rough edges, to be presented to a larger
audience. The journey from the initial working paper to its present stage in
the form of a full fledged book has been helped by the discussions and
debates with different faculty members of XLRI, which have helped me to
identify different gaps in the initial working paper.
I gratefully acknowledge Pranav Mishra, my former student and a strategist in
his own right, who has been a sounding board for my ideas, providing
valuable inputs from time to time. The help given by Ms. Deepa Xavier to
polish my ideas as well as my initial document is appreciatively recognized.
The patience and fortitude shown by my wife has been remarkable during the
course of working on this book. Her support has been crucial in the
completion of this book.
This book is humbly dedicated to my father, late Sanjeev Narayan Bagchi,
whose debt can never be adequately acknowledged. The blessings of my late
father-in-law, Dilip Kumar Ganguly, have been a constant source of
inspiration for my endeavours.
Soumendra Narain Bagchi
Jamshedpur
May 31, 2013
vii
Author’s NotesAuthor’s NotesAuthor’s NotesAuthor’s Notes
Not too long ago, campaigns implied public walls covered with posters and
party graffiti, extensive rallies and speeches, and finally topped with door
door campaign by a khadi clad candidate. Now these activities have been
accompanied by SMS broadcasts and emails, and debates on
Youtube, Facebook or Twitter. Till the late 1990s, the use of official TV
channels was a privilege, often taken advantage of by the ruling party. Now
many political parties boast of their own satellite based TV channels.
Yet the knowledge about the winning combination seems elusive. The losses
suffered by political behemoths, in the recent elections and in differe
arenas viz., Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal
Karnataka along with the last elections of Lok Sabha, are evidence
same.
This book, for the first time, sets out strategic theory for analysing and
strategizing a campaign. The issues deliberated in this book pertain to real life
political battles. So are the examples of different players in Indian political
world, which are taken to illustrate the concepts. The varied vignettes in this
book have been selected from multiple contexts and contests so as to best
illustrate the concepts and principles and interweave them with the theoretical
narrative, and not with an idea to make this book a compendium on current
affairs.
To allow the readers to relate to the examples, the illustrations have been
taken from the recent past, which of course leads to a certain bias as actions
of existing actors, in their respective roles in the political arena,
most contemporary examples. Choice of certain examples may be considered
contentious as they might appear to focus too much on an individual or a
single political party. However that is a function of time, as different
individuals and parties occupy different positions at different points of time.
For readers, especially those who might take offence regarding choice of
examples, one would like to recall the old adage of learning from one’s own
mistakes. Regarding learning from other’s mistakes, especially one’s enemies,
one might recall the instruction given by the great Chanakya:
One should accept good qualities even from an enemy. One should reject
bad qualities even of the guru.
with posters and
party graffiti, extensive rallies and speeches, and finally topped with door-to-
door campaign by a khadi clad candidate. Now these activities have been
accompanied by SMS broadcasts and emails, and debates on television,
1990s, the use of official TV
taken advantage of by the ruling party. Now
channels.
ms elusive. The losses
suffered by political behemoths, in the recent elections and in different
h, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal,
evidence of the
for analysing and
The issues deliberated in this book pertain to real life
political battles. So are the examples of different players in Indian political
to illustrate the concepts. The varied vignettes in this
from multiple contexts and contests so as to best
illustrate the concepts and principles and interweave them with the theoretical
book a compendium on current
To allow the readers to relate to the examples, the illustrations have been
taken from the recent past, which of course leads to a certain bias as actions
, will be the
may be considered
as they might appear to focus too much on an individual or a
However that is a function of time, as different
parties occupy different positions at different points of time.
For readers, especially those who might take offence regarding choice of
one would like to recall the old adage of learning from one’s own
mistakes, especially one’s enemies,
rom an enemy. One should reject
1 Introduction
Ein jeder lebt's, nicht vielen ist's bekannt.
We are all doing it; very few of us understand what we are doing.
- Goethe
Politics, a term that encapsulates the good and the bad of a democracy, at
the same time also represents the means by which an individual, or a group
of individuals, attempt to reform the society according to a particular world
view, instead of travelling down the road towards a bloody revolution. The
opening up of positions of power to contestants, individuals and political
parties, in the form of electoral contests, or simply put the elections, allows
the voters to choose from the different ideologies of the contestants, allowing
the governed to decide on the governors, with the temporal nature of office
creating an accountability mechanism.1
Traditional approaches in political studies have been either philosophical
(which is normative in character and exemplified by scholars like Plato,
Hobbes, Locke, and Marx), or historical/institutional (both of which
incorporate study of development and functioning of political institutions), or
legalistic (study of power with regarding to legalistic provisions).2
The study
of conduct of the contestants which allow them to win elections has been,
unfortunately, neglected. To remedy this, in this book I propose and expound
a strategic approach, guided by a single question - how does a candidate or
a political party win an election?
Congress's Jai Ho versus BJP's Bhai Ho
The 2009 general elections witnessed a clash of songs. The rights to the song of Oscar
winning movie Slumdog Millionaire were reportedly bought by Indian National Congress
Congress and used in its campaign. This was countered by Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)
with a parody based on the same tune. How did these initiatives impact outcomes of an
election? Do the electorate consider these activities while making their choices, or are these
dismissed as pre-election gimmicks?
Among the many possible explanations, money, and the entitlements that
acompanies it, emerges as the foremost of the candidates. An affluent
candidate is able to mobilise the resources necessary for waging an
elaborate campaign, and can, if required, go to the extent of ‘buying’ votes,
rewarding voters if they vote in his/her favour. Such buying, theoretically,
ought to be more straightforward for candidates already entrenched in
power. With access to power, funds can be diverted to obtain additional
resources like people to participate in rallies, or in certain contexts, the
1 Election. Merriam-Webster online. Retrieved December 24, 2012.
2 Readers interested in the different approaches may refer to any standard book on political science, for
example, Bhushan (2011), Biswal (2013) or many credible sources on Internet.
1
required muscle power would be more easily accessible. Or, announcement
of welfare schemes can be synchronised with the election calendar. One
can, therefore, identify the resource based theory, if one were to term it
such, as the intitial explanation to explore.
Media-Spending based explanation?
The Gujarat-assembly elections of 2012 reportedly witnessed a campaign-spending of Rs.
200-500 cr by Narendra Modi in different forms: print ads, firms, campaigns on online
forums like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. Such massive communication campaign
reportedly caused uneasiness in the mind of Arjun Modhwadia, president of the Gujarat unit
of the Congress party, who had to create a counter campaign.3
In absence of data regarding expenditure by Congress, any conclusion would be premature.
Ironically BJP, if it hypothetically spent more than Congress in 2012, obtained 115 seats,
which was two less than that it won in the 2007 elections! What is overlooked in the media
based explanation is Narendra Modi’s win over Congress in 2012 was like a repeat of the
2007 story. In both the elections a high powered Congress campaign was led by Sonia
Gandhi + Rahul Gandhi combine.
The state assembly election of Uttar Pradesh was one of the most high
profile political battles in 2012. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) headed by
Mayawati, Samajwadi Party (SP) headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav, BJP
with its stalwarts like former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Gujarat
Chief Minister Narendra Modi, along with Lal Krishna Advani, Sushma
Swaraj among others, and Congress headed by Rahul Gandhi, were the
significant parties in the contest.
The resource based theory fails to provide adequate answer as to why
Samajwadi Party won, winning 224 seats out of 403 assembly
constituencies, and the other parties, which one may tentatively argue to be
more or less equally endowed, lost.4
Noteworthy was the loss suffered by
BSP, which had been ruling the state till the conduct of election, and had all
the aforementioned advantages of an incumbent.
The wide coverage by media did not pick up any fraudulent means adopted
in the elections, which could have been an alternate explanation. Neither can
one identify religion or caste based ideology as a significant factor in this
election. Uttar Pradesh elections 2012 also witnessed candidates being
fielded based on strategic considerations, as reported, rather than on pure
ideological considerations. An example would be the candidate profile of
BSP - 117 upper caste, including 74 Brahmins and 33 Kshattriyas, 85
religious minorities candidates, 88 SC candidates and 113 OBC candidates.5
Confining oneself to resource based explanation, one will be at a loss to
3 With adspend of Rs 200-500 cr Modi's election PR blitz leaves Congress dazed. 2012 From www.rediff.com
4 Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2012. From http://en.wikipedia.org
5 Bring back BSP to power: Mayawati to party workers. 2012. From http://www.dnaindia.com
2
account for the defeat of the ruling Left Front in West Bengal, which was
swept out of power after 34 years of uninterrupted rule. In the 2011
assembly elections, apart from the loss of the party, the elections also
witnessed political heavy-weight candidate like Buddhadeb Bhattacharya,
the West Bengal Chief Minister, losing from Jadavpur constituency, which
had been his constituency for the last 20 years.6
Alternate reductionistic explanations, based on religion or caste, or popular
terms like wave, lead to similar unsatisfactory conclusions.
West Bengal witnessed an massive upsurge towards Trinamool Congress in
2011 assembly elections. Labelled by the media as the ‘Mamata wave’, out
of 226 candidates put forward by Trinamool, 184 emerged as winners. One
would look at those who did not win, the 42 candidates, as data defying the
wave based explantion. Why did not, or could not, these candidates ride the
wave?
In Gujarat elections of 2012, out of 182 candidates put forth by BJP, 115
'rode' the wave and emerged winners, while for the remaining 67 candidates,
the wave could not lift them to glory. Differences in the potency of waves is
another puzzle to resolve. Thereotically a wave implies a significant swell of
goodwill towards a particular party, which ought to translate into votes for
the party candidates. In West Bengal, All India Trinamool Congress had a
success rate, based on successfull candidates as a percentage of
candidates put forth, of 81.42% while its ally Indian National Congress had a
success rate of 63.64%. In contrast, BJP in Gujarat in 2012, with the widely
reported Narendra Modi wave, had a success ratio of only 63.19%, lesser
than the Congress in West Bengal, where Congress was a weaker ally of
Trinamool.7
These facts points out to insufficiency of the wave based explanation, and to
possible existence of other factors or variables which need to be considered
in order to obtain a more robust explanation.
One might be tempted to explain election-results using ‘voters’ preference’
as a catch-all answer, but that again leads us to back to the starting point
rather than resolving the puzzle. What accounts for voters’ preferences? And
then, what explains the shifts when the voters vote out the incumbent?
The statement by Nirmala Sitaraman, BJP spokesperson, explaining the
choice of candidates during assembly elections of Gujarat, 2012, “winnability
is important”8
provides a clue that it is not just the resource entitlement
alone. There is something called winnability, which differentiates candidates,
making someone more and others less winnable. What leads to winnability
6 Alok Pandey (2011). The man who beat Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee for the first time in 24 years. May 13,
2011. From http://drop.ndtv.com
7 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in.
8 Modi selects his side, rejects Muslim candidates. 2012. From http://www.hindustantimes.com
3
has been however left untouched and undiscussed.
Welfare programs – the path to electoral victory?
Certain political scientists hold government welfare programs as reasons for electoral
contests. For example, Arun R. Swamy in his work "Political Mobilization" argued that
Congress’s return to power in 2004 at the head of United Progressive Alliance was
predominantly due to “the large poverty alleviation programmes initiatied by the Congress
government in the 1980s and 1990s”; continuing with the welfare program based
explanation, NREGA, now renamed as MGNREGA, was credited to be “a major, and
perhaps the most important reason for the Congress’ victory in 2009” (Swamy, 2010:283).
However the welfare scheme based explanation needs to overcome challenges by alternate
explanations.
The last significant win for Congress prior to 1991 general elections was in 1984 in the
aftermath of Indira Gandhi's assassination, after which the Congress had struggled to return
to power. It returned to power in 1991 in the aftermath of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. An
alternate sympathy based explanation emerges to counter the welfare program based
explanation.
One would also like to look at the perspective as to whether it was a win due to efforts of the
Congress, or did the mistakes of the opposition help the outcome. The BJP's insistence on
"India Shining" despite reported farmers' suicides and starvation deaths in rural hinterland in
2004, and a negative anti-Congress campaign were certain factors that helped the
Congress in 2004 and 2009.9
Most of the analysis in media is in the form of post-hoc analysis, or worse,
using circular logic. An example is cited from 2012 election related report.
Hinting at Congress hoping for anti-incumbency factor, Economic Times
published an article containing the lines: “The hopes of cashing in on anti-
incumbency in Punjab and Uttarakhand remained a pipedream”.10
A vote against the ruling regime in a particular state becomes a specific
instance, and not a cause of the phenomenon. Anti-incumbency is, as an
article in Hindu illustrates “one word for many failures” where “different
reasons to vote out a government... are usually massed together under this
catch-all concept”.11
A look into the history of state assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, the state
which has made the term anti-incumbency famous, presents a different
picture of the anti-incumbency phenomenon.12
9 Sonia Sarkar (2009). Left, right and centre. The Telegraph. Calcutta. December 27, 2009.
10 Election results 2012: Congress ends up with 28 seats in UP, 6 more than its 2007 tally. From The
Economic Times.
11 Five verdicts, one lesson. 2012. From http://www.thehindu.com/ opinion/editorial
12 List of Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu. Accessed from http://en.wikipedia.org
4
Table 1: Chief Minsiters of Tamil Nadu
The Madras Legislative Asembly Elections of 1946, 1952, 1957, and 1962
witnessed domination by Indian National Congress in the erstwhile Madras
State. In 1967, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) came to power
defeating Indian National Congress, the first instance of anti-incumbency
vote. If one were to consider the entire history, then it would be a tie between
anti-incumbency vote and pro-incumbency vote with seven each.
Historical evidence of different states forces us to disprove anti-incumbency
as a pervasive phenomenon. One example would be the state of
Maharashtra which historically has seen a domination of Indian National
Congress as the ruling party. Similarly other states like Tripura, Meghalaya,
Kerela, Gujarat, Bihar etc., do not provide evidence of electorate that flip-
flops in their choice of political party every election.
The question regarding what leads to an election victory is a profound one.
Not only does it impact the fortunes of a country, but it also represents a
significant gap in the existing theory of leadership and politics. In the
following chapter the existing theories are explored as to how they stand up
to the challenge of explaining the wins and losses of leaders.
5
2 Existing Theoretical Landscape
He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a
rudder and compass and never knows where he may cast.
- Leonardo da Vinci
Electoral contests, taking place under the umbrella of the rules and the
procedures that are characteristic of the democracy in question, are marked
by campaigns of different contestants. Campaigns are typically manifested
as rallies, posters, speeches, televised debates, and other related activities
engaged in by contestants and their supporters. What are the characteristic
of a winning campaign? The prevalent discourse regarding campaigns,
specifically in media, is seemingly bereft of any robust explanation which
would offer a candidate rudimentary signposts on how to go about planning
his/her campaign.13
Literature on related subjects of war-campaigns, politics and governance can
be classified into two broad categories - the traditional, pre-1900 and the
modern, post-1900. Before moving forward, it would be wise to browse
through the existing scholarly works on the allied subjects.
The pre-1900 tradition, often practised by those who had developed
expertise on any subject through thoughtful observation and deliberation,
consisted of presenting one’s ideas in a comprehensive treatise. Examples
of the same are the treatises that focused on military campaigns, e.g., of Sun
Tzu’s Art of War (circa 512 BCE) and Carl von Claustiwiz’s On War (circa
1830), or on strategies for governance, e.g., Chanakya’s Arthasashtra (circa
350–283 BC) and Niccolò Machiavelli’s The Prince (circa 1530). Some of
these works have been extrapolated to contexts different from that originally
intended, e.g., On War has been converted into Marketing Warfare by Al
Ries and Jack Trout in 1985 while Art of War has been used to explore
business strategy as well (e.g., The Art of War for Executives: Ancient
Knowledge for Today's Business Professional by Donald G. Krause).
However explicit modification for guiding political campaigns in a democracy
has not been presented so far.
Gustave Le Bon’s The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind (circa 1986)
which had psychology of the crowd as its subject matter is an exception. In
this work the author had explored electoral crowds. While certainly providing
critical insights, the book is not exactly applicable due to the characteristics
and working of modern democracies, which are distinctly different from
regimes which existed during which the book was written.14
13 One often comes across news of students interning in different political parties,specially when the students
come from premier institutes like IIMs or the IITs. Whether that has led to development of any theory or
conceptual framework is not known. As of date, there is none publicly available known to the author.
14 The principles articulated by Le Bon are under the premise of the electorate as less willing to think or more
or less under the sway of the propaganda of the moment, and that is reflected in the description of
electorates as “working men and peasants” which may have been the situation in Gustave’s time. That
6
With the rise of academic journals in the 1990s, as major outlets of scholarly
work, research output of scholars has altered significantly in format as well
as in quantity. In contrast to the holistic treatment of the subject matter in the
pre-1900 tradition, the post-1900 practice has been driven predominantly by
the search for trends in micro-level data, and the work limited to the space
restrictions enforced by journals' editors.15
The inadequacy of such research
is not the focus of this paper; the inability of these micro-models to account
for the recent election results, especially in the Indian context, or even for
that matter the results of elections in any constituency, would suffice to be a
pointer to any researcher or any practitioner.
An exception to this has been Thomas Holbrook's 1996 study of campaigns
of UP presidential elections Do Campaigns Matter? in which the impact of
media coverage, conventions, presidential debates, and scandals was
studied. While the conclusion was that the campaigns indeed mattered, the
variables discussed were limited to US presidential elections. Among the few
which explored the role of strategy in politics, Stephen Barber's Political
Strategy: Modern Politics in Contemporary Britain focuses on application of
strategic concepts in British politics, with the book more of a chronicle of
“strategic history of the period” (Barber, 2005: 213). Yet, neither of these two
offer clear clarity on the guiding principles that would be instrumental in
structuring a campaign.
Devoid of a coherent theory, the existing body of literature does not offer any
holistic understanding of the subject which would guide either the researcher
or the practitioner, particularly in non-western context like that of India, on
potency or failings of certain strategic action-choices. Take for example the
issue of posters. Would more of posters lead to victory or would it be the
rallies on the streets that would be more helpful? What should the speeches
delivered by different candidates focus on? How does one predict the impact
of these individual elements, not only in isolation, but also taken together, so
that one can understand which initiatives mutually reinforce each other and
which of the moves probably might be cancelling out each other?
As discussed earlier, the resource based theory, which tries to explain the
outcomes as a function of the resource engaged by the contestants, initially,
was an interesting candidate to start exploring the subject with. This is more
however, I believe, would be radically different from the world of today, where the electorate is more often
than naught more aware of the ground realities, despite the government propaganda or the so called
'official news'. Therefore to build a theory which has the naivety of the electorate as one of the premises
would be to have an ineffectual foundation for the theory.
15 Some of the studies which reflect the same are: the impact on candidate’s vote shares due to changes in
campaign contribution restrictions (Stratmann and Aparicio, 2001), the effect of candidate's campaign
rhetoric on beliefs of voters (Aragones & Postlewaite, 2000), campaign spending (Geber, 2004), voter’s
belief in terms of political efficacy (Vercellotti, 2011), the focus on issues in candidate interaction in
competitive and non-competitive elections (Banda, 2011), voters’ responses to campaign promises and
later fulfilments (Elinder, Jordahl and Poutvaara, 2008), impact of misleading advertisement on voter
participation (Houser, Ludwig and Stratmann 2009) etc. These have been selected primarily to understand
the extent of theoretical development done, and should not be construed as to be fully representative of
entire post-1900 research available on the subject.
7
so in Indian context where it is believed by many that the resources spent
during elections by candidates exceed what is declared officially (e.g., see
Ray, 2009). This belief has found support in some empirical research done
by Kapur and Vaishnav (2011) and by Prabash (2011), to quote a few.
Resources are an essential requirement for any endeavour and there is no
denying that. However the evidence seems to indicate resources to be more
of a necessary condition rather than a sufficient condition for ensuring an
election-victory.
There is a substantive literature existing on propaganda and its use during
election campaigns which may interest any reader. This place is not the
place for listing such books. However the subject matter focuses on a single
aspect of communication and persuasion, which is considered to be a
simplisic view of campaigns.
Existing leadership theories from management literature present
an alternate perspective. Can these be used to examine electoral
battles? There too, one is faced with significant challenges. All
leaders are supposed to carry out, with some variation, the
essential tasks of 1) identifying and articulating the vision, 2)
strategising 3) communicating to ensure shared understandings,
meanings and goals, 4) monitoring progress and making mid-
course modifications, and 5) developing subordinates, the
elements common to all the leadership theories.16
These tasks,
modified for the context of electoral contests, are typically carried out by
almost all contestants, even more faithfully by those backed by major
political parties, with their extensive organisation and resources. If that is so,
how does one explain the varying outcomes? The inadequacy of the existing
body of leadership literature or the inapplicability of the same in electoral
context, is, primarily due to the premise of the theories - that the dyadic
relationship between the leader and the follower(s) is already established,
and that the different leadership styles as discussed in literature are in reality
different action-choices. The followers of the management theories
therefore mistake different temporary situation-specific action-principles,
such as transactional or transformational, for different leadership styles.
In other words, the premise of the existing leadership theories is that the
individual leader is already placed at the head of the troops, and his/her sole
focus should be (or is) on how to get the troops, i.e., the employees down
the hierarchy, to follow him/her towards his/her goal. Such an assumption
would be inapplicable in a democratic contest, where the question is how to
16 Leadership theories, as existing, are broadly classified into different types: 1.The “Great Man”, 2.Trait
theories, 3.Contingency theory, 4.Situational theory, 5. Behavioral theory, 6. Participative theory, and
7.Management theories, 8.Relationship theory, 9. Servant Leadership etc. For brevity, I have not given
details of different theories or a review of the different leadership theories. For a detailed exposition of the
leadership theories the reader is advised to consult the existing literature.
8
be accepted by, first the initial group who would form the nucleus of the
contestant’s organisation, and then by the electorate. Or for cadidates
aspiring for party-tickets from established political parties, how does one get
nominated to be the party's candidate, after which comes the bigger
question of how to win the elections. It is after the declaration of the final
results, does one get to be at the position of the authority and power to
influence the administrative apparatus to work towards a certain goal.
Attempts have been made to overcome the lack of a guiding theory by
opinion polls, both formal as well as informal, by different political parties.
The results have not been encouraging. As the example of the Uttar Pradesh
elections 2012 indicates, such an approach can hardly be termed reliable.
Reliability of Opinion Polls: Uttar Pradesh, 2012
Opinion polls by agencies like STAR News-Nilsen and News24 had indicated a hung
assembly. A comparison with the final results indicates the extent of error in the predictions.
Description BSP Samajwadi
Party
BJP INC-RLD Others
STAR News-Nielsen Opinion
Poll
101 135 61 99 7
News24 Opinion Poll 108 127 57 94 17
Final Results 80 224 47 28+9 15
Source of data: Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 201217
Do these examples imply that an understanding of campaigns is lacking, not
only among the surveyors, but also among practitioners? It seems difficult to
accept that any political party would campaign, with all the investment in
terms of time, money and greatest of all, reputation of the individuals
concerned, with an intent of losing.
The results of 2009 general elections and the comments by some of the
senior leaders illustrate certain efforts towards post-result introspection
among the national level parties. E.g., it was reported that BJP lost despite
having the "ideal platform", with the leaders citing infighting among leaders,
excessive dependence on "media management" and "ideological
confusion".18
One would be hard-pressed to understand why these issues
were ignored during the campaign by the strategists.
Available evidence indicates a lack of a precise understanding of the
principles at play during electoral contests. One might take as supporting
evidence an article published by the prominent Times of India, in relation to
2012 elections in Andhra Pradesh, wherein it was reported that the ruling
17 Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2012. From http://en.wikipedia.org
18 Sanjay Jha (2009). BJP's double ache: election defeat and rival revival. From The Telegraph. 18 May 2009.
9
Congress was “mystified at how the beneficiaries of the pro-poor schemes of
the state government" could support any other party and could not fanthom
the reasons for shift of its traditional vote bank (comprising of SCs,
Christians and Muslims) to Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.19
During the Gujarat elections of 2012, apart from the activities of local leaders
of Congress, there was active campaigning by Congress president Sonia
Gandhi, General Secretary of the Indian National Congress, Rahul Gandhi
and the Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh who, together, effectively
reflect the top leadership of the party. What is important to note, that from a
practitioner’s perspective, this was the most high-powered campaign of the
Congress party, going all out in Gujarat. The results with 61 candidates
winning out of 176, evidently does not do justice to the efforts and resources
invested by the Indian National Congress in the campaign.
The results of state assembly elections of Karnataka of 2013 present a
similar picture about BJP. The failure of its campaign despite the
involvement of Narendra Modi who has been projected as BJP's candidate
for the post of prime minister presents a disturbing picture for BJP and a
morale booster for Congress. The results have also been used to pull down
Narendra Modi who has often been highlighted as the BJP's candidate for
the post of Prime Minister and the leader who would lead the electoral
campaign as regards the general elections of 2014. As reportedly attributed
to Congress leader Subodh Kant Sahay, the loss was a failure of Narendra
Modi's magic,with the Gujarat Congress claiming that BJP lost those seats
where Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi addressed public meetings.20
Analysis of data of last five general elections (see table 2) and recent
assembly elections (see table 3) is educative. At an aggregate level national
parties fared better than state level parties and registered (unrecognised)
parties till 2009 general elections.
Table 2: A Look at Results of General Elections21
Success ratio of different parties (%) 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
National Parties 22.18 25.92 28.41 26.94 23.14
State Parties 16.95 21.44 21.07 19.85 37.06
Registered (Unrecognised) Parties 0.27 5.63 1.53 1.67 0.54
Independents 0.08 0.31 0.31 0.21 0.23
Total 3.89 11.43 11.68 9.99 6.73
In the 2009 general elections, at an aggregate level, the state parties had
better succcess ratio as compared to national parties, which are gererally
well endowned, both in terms of resources, organisation, and are graced by
19 Anti-incumbency haunts Congress. 2012. From http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
20 Rahul above Modi in Karnataka. 09 May, 2013. From http://www.newsbullet.in
21 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in
10
presence of leaders of stature. In the statistics, one finds further support of
the idea that the elections are contested by significant parties, more as a
gamble and less guided by a coherent strategy.
Performance of the individual national parties in the state assembly elections
of 2011 and 2012 shows how the state parties have dominated the contests.
The success rate of the national parties in certain states emerges to be no
better than the tens of registered (unrecognised) parties that took part in the
elections and had zero success rate (see table 3).
Table 3: Performance of National Parties in Recent State Assembly Elections22
Note: National Congress Party (NCP) did not contest in Tamil Nadu elections, 2011.
In contrast, the performance of certain state level parties was better that
national parties in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Uttar
Pradesh. Even then one cannot generalise to the conclusion that state level
parties will always fare better than national parties due to disconfirming
evidence in the same elections.
If the above data proves anything, it is probably that even leading parties,
particularly the national parties, have no coherent body of knowledge that
will guide them in the contests. In absence of such, the contests are
contested more in the form of a speculative exercise, or in a possible best
case scenario, backed by a rudimentary analysis. As an example, if one
were to analyse the report about Mayawati, which highlighted Mayawati's
decision of reverting back to the "winning formula" of dalit-upper caste
combination and therefore nominating Brahmins (50% of candidates in the
first list as reported in the article) in order to prepare for the coming 2014
general elections, along with her demand for reservation for the
22 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in
11
economically-challenged among the upper castes, it would indicate an
assumption that such a caste-based combination that had helped her earlier
would hold true in the future as well.23
One might counter argue that the knowledge is present, but is not acted
upon. Or, an alternate state of affairs might be that all the parties use a
common body of knowledge thus levelling any advantage that might have
accrued to a single party. To refute the first counter argument is quite an
easy task: if it exists, then it ought to be acted upon, unless, the parties
concerned have a fascination for ignoring such knowledge and chalking up
losses in such high stake contests. Refutation of the second counter
argument is difficult unless one has access to the decision making process
of significant, if not all, political parties. But even then, the results, over a
period of time, should lead to an equilibirium, in form of a stable distribution
of seats among the contesting parties, absence of which indicates elsewise.
Reflecting on writings of certain commentators, one would find suggestions
of strategic analysis. For example, post-result analyses for the Uttar Pradesh
elections 2012 put forward by Seema Mustafa have pointed out “absence of
an organisation” as an important factor, along with absence of locally strong
leaders.24
Publicised self-reflection of certain leaders also hint at certain variables that
were ignored by them during the contests. For example, it was reported that
Rahul Gandhi had identified Congress’ weak organisational structure as the
primary reason for the loss suffered in UP 2012 elections.25
Therefore, in order to understand ‘campaign’ in all its complexity, we will
subject it to a sustained analysis in the tradition of traditional scholars, the
foundation grounded in few core principles, or axioms, and the
superstructure built up brick by brick, so that a reasonably educated reader
is taken step by step from simple and self-evident principles to complex and
detailed analyses, while at all times assuring himself/ herself of the empirical
validity of the theory by reverting to real world happenings.
While expounding the principles, reference has been made to different
historical events as chronicled from different information-sources. Each of
these historical event, have their own detailed story, the details of which can
not be captured in this small work, without making it unnecessarily gigantic.
It is assumed, maybe somewhat optimistically, that the reader will be
acquainted with the full details of such historical events.
23 Tapas Chakraborty (2013). Maya courts Brahmins. The Telegraph. April 19, 2013.
24 No wave at all for Rahul in UP election. From The Statesman. 21 January 2012.
25 Rahul’s campaign fails to deliver a lift for Congress. 2012. From http://www.livemint.com/
12
3 Campaign
...organized effort to secure nomination and election of candidates for government
offices
- The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia
The 2009 general election saw a battle of epic proportions - 7 national
parties, 34 state parties and 323 registered (unrecognised) parties, including
independent candidates as a separate category. There were 8070
contestants (1623 from national parties, 394 from state parties, 2222 from
registered (unrecognised) parties along with 3831 independent), with more
than 71 crore voters spread across 543 constituencies.26
It can safely be
prophesied that the coming 2014 Lok Sabha elections will be of greater
magnitude.
Apart from the magnitude of the world’s largest democracy, elections in India
are a complex phenomenon. One has multiple competing candidates with
different alliances and factions, some supported by established political
parties while others fight as independents or start their own parties, the
different clusters in the electorate based on class, castes and sub-castes,
religions etc., the supporters of different candidates, families and friends of
supporters, along with government agencies who conduct the electoral
process. The suppliers of different accoutrements and paraphernalia used by
candidates and their supporters, the economy that produces and supplies
these, the financiers of the candidates and so on, add to the intricacies of
this colossal tournament. The emergence of newer technologies like
Internet, with its own media and forums for interaction, and mobile telephony
has brought in additional dimensions.
Despite such apparent complexity in the world of elections, the contests can
be made comprehensible by anchoring oneself at one point and then moving
forward to explore the compexity. In the following sections, we enter this
world using the contestant's world-view to guide us.
Moving apart from the definition, what does a campaign signify for a
contestant? Here we broad base the definition of the campaign to:
a means for a candidate to communicate his/her vision and
showcase his/her leaderdership and organising capabilities and
strengths, relative to the competing contestants, to the electorate in
order to obtain their vote.
This definition provides the essential ingredients for any campaign:
i. candidate
ii. vision
26 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in
13
iii. organisation
iv. communication
v. leadership
The above constituents, which are common to what is observed in almost all
organised human endeavour, will be analysed within the context of political
contests.
The inclusion of leadership does not mean that we fall back on the
metaphysical hero-explanation, i.e., a contest’s outcomes are result of a
particular candidate being the magnificent hero persona. On the contrary, it
is leadership, in the fullest meaning of the word, which probably ties together
the other ingredients into a multi-dimensional animated gestalt. It is this
feature of gestalt that has to be borne in mind when analysing different
ingredients. The configurations which forms due to the combination of
different elements can be hypothesised to exhibit properties or
characteristics that are not due to presence or absence of a single element,
or the strength or potency of a single element alone.
14
4 Roles in a Campaign
Every role you do is kind of a side of yourself. That's why they give you the part.
- John Cusack
Different labels are used in media: aspirant, contestant, or torch-bearer,
while discussing campaings. For the purpose of this thesis, certain terms are
adopted and clarified in terms of the roles they are required to play, so that
we are consistent in our deliberations as we delve further in the subject.
Spiritual-head: is identified as the central decision maker in an electoral
contest, defined as the one aiming at the leadership position, either for
himself (or herself) or for someone else others backed by him (or her),
primarily as a mean to certain end. This necessarily implies that the spiritual-
head might not be interested in holding the leadership position. The spiritual-
head is akin to the torch-bearer, at the forefront of the campaign as a
personification of the vision or the values for which the entire struggle is all
about.
The difference between the reality as it exists, and the spiritual-head’s vision
of what it ought to be, is the motivational trigger for a spiritual-head
embarking on this odyssey. The dissatisfaction due to the existence of this
difference may be felt by a lone individual, the spiritual-head or may be a
common occurence in the collective mind of the populace, which may be
reaped either by one genuinely concerned or by a political entrepreneur.
This vision-in-mind is distinguished from vision-espoused or communicated
to the populace at large, often in form of a manifesto or in form of speeches
etc. The vision-in-mind may range from redress of personal grievance or
self-aggrandisement to genuine concern for the improvement of the society
or a temporary focus on certain fervent issues.27
Contestant: Contrasted with the spiritual-head persona, a contestant is
often the participant-apparent in the electoral process as one of the
candidates for the power position, subjecting himself/herself to the electoral
process.28
How does a spiritual-head differ from a contestant? This answer is based on
the reasons for an individual to engage in the political process. An example
would clarify the significance of the distinction adopted in this thesis.
Chanakya’s extreme dissatisfaction with the prevailing status quo during the
27 Vision, a simple word, is often difficult to actualize in an impactful manner so as to capture the electorate’s
imagination, while at the same time being credible and not thought of something bizarre or invented for the
sole sake of elections. Some readers may be genuinely concerned about the explicit, but not advocated,
difference identified in this book between the public stance and the thoughts-in-private, which would guide
the spiritual-heads, being a justification of deceit. The intent is, however not so. The idea is to make the
necessary distinctions between different concepts to ensure a robust foundation on which to develop the
theoretical edifice.
28 For the rest of this book the terms contestant and candidate will be used synonymously.
15
Nanda rule and the felt need for change led to his engaging in the leadership
process through his protégé Chandragupta Maurya.
The same phenomenon is amply manifested in political parties offering party
tickets to candidates, wherein the individuals queueing up for a party ticket
do not qualify to be called the spiritual-head. Similarly, when certain
candidates are ordered by party-leadership to vacate a seat to
accommodate other candidates, in those cases the party-leadership may be
identified as the true spiritual-heads of the respective parties, while the role
of different candidates in different constituencies would be nearer to that of
pieces in a real-world chess game.29
Triggers
The conversion of an individual into a political Spiritual-head is often triggered by intense
personal experience which acts as the turning point in the life of the individual. Once might
term the insult in the court of Dhana Nanda suffered by Chanakya, or in case of Mohandas
Karamchand Gandhi it was racial indignities suffered by him and other fellow Indians in
South Africa, or in case of Bal Thackeray it was the victimization felt at the hands of the
editors of Free Press Journal in which he was employed (Purandare, 2012:2) as the turning
points in their lives.
This nuanced distinction not only allows us to analyse the leadership
process more carefully without getting blinded by the appearance of the
contestants, but also allows us to account for the facts at the ground level
where different party-leaders nominate candidates in different
constituencies. Example of this would be leaders of national political parties
who aspire that their party should form government in different states, and
hence play the role of spiritual-heads. To further their aim, they shortlist
suitable individuals to contest in different constituencies, those whom we
have labelled as contestants.
The individual in the role of the spiritual-head is the nucleus, the heart
providing the vision which motivates others to join him/her in his/her
odyssey. That does not necessarily imply that the same person would be
heading the campaign. The spiritual-head may be the person heading the
national political party headquartered away from different constituencies, at
best coming down to portray support for the local candidate. One would also
be open to the possibility of the spiritual-head not visible in the entire picture,
as was evidenced by the subtle absence of some of the top BJP leaders in
the Gujarat 2012 elections.
Such multi-layered power differences exists even during non-campaign
periods. This is evident from the episode related to Uttarakhand Chief
29 It may be noted that ideal-types of Spiritual-head and candidate are theoretical constructs. In reality, there
will be substantial overlap as very few candidates may be found who would willingly subordinate their
personal agendas and ambitions to the vision of the Spiritual-heads. The utility of this distinction is in
allowing us to understand different strategic moves better.
16
Minister B C Khanduri in which, faced with rebellion from the state BJP unit,
the chief minister went to New Delhi to 'explain his position' to the BJP
leadership.30
The question of accountability helps us to acutely distinguish
spiritual-head from the candidates, as a spiritual-head is accountable only to
himself/ herself.
The linkage between spiritual-head and contestant is hierarchical, with
possibilities of multiple levels. For example Rashtriya Sangh Sevak (RSS)
does not contest in elections, but it weilds significant influence over the
Bhartiaya Janta Party. Therefore, one might look at the possibility of the
locus of strategic-control being different from the locus of operational-control.
The leadership of the BJP can, at a national level, be termed as contestant
with RSS leadership as spiritual-head. Taken a level down, while RSS might
give a broad agenda, it is upto to regional leaders to win in the electoral
contests. Therefore one would allow a degree of ideological flexibility to even
the operational leaders.31
Thus, in the Gujarat elections, Narendra Modi
defined the vision in form of declaring 2012 ‘youth power year’ in
Vivekananda year, along with his focus on “neo-middle class’. For
candidates chosen by Narendera Modi, Narendra Modi was the spiritual-
head. On the other hand, for the Congress, the dyadic combination of Sonia
Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi represented the spiritual-head, with Arjun
Modhwadia and the other members of the state Congress team as
contestants in the Gujarat elections 2012.
A successful spiritual-head is like the person whose call will be responded to
by the population. An example would be Anna Hazare, whose call led to
support pouring in from people belonging to different walks of life at Jantar
Mantar in 2012. While he has stayed away from taking part in the elections,
Anna Hazare’s case probably provides a significant example in today’s
times about a torch-bearer whose call is capable of rallying the public,
exemplifying a standard which potential leaders should aspire to. Despite
alleged praise for Narendra Modi and the controversy arising due to that,
Anna Hazare’ movement against corruption was supported by Mufti
Mukarram, Shahi Imam of Fatehpuri Masjid, Delhi, the Muslim Personal Law
Board, the India Ulema Council, the Pasmanda Muslim Mahaj, All India
Muslim Women Personal Law Board and the All India Muslim Majlish-a-
Mushawarat; this was despite the statement by Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid,
Syed Ahmed Bhukhari, that since the Anna movement had as its war cry
Vande Mataram and Bharat Mata Ki Jai, the movement was against Islam
and exhorted Muslims not to join the movement (Ashutosh, 2012: 123).
Another example can be taken to be Mamata Banerjee during her struggle
against the ruling Left Front in West Bengal. Her calls were heeded to not
30 Uttarakhand CM meets Rajnath Singh. From Times of India, Aug. 10, 2008.
31 How far the freedom is agreed upon in private can never be known, and one would have to allow for
certain ambiguity regarding this if one takes into account the discussions in media. E.g., RSS's belief
in swadeshi which contrasts with Narendra Modi's free economic philosophy and Narendra Modi's
efforts which have cut the strings with which the RSS tried to control him have been part of media-
debates. Source: Family Tales. The Telegraph. Dec. 22, 2012.
17
only by her party members, but was actively supported in rural West Bengal
(Basu, 2012).
In cases where both spiritual-head and contestant are one and the same
person, the postulates expounded would hold equally well.
Campaigner: The person brought in to boost the probability of a party's or
an individual contestant's winning the contest. Campaigners range from film
stars, sports persons, to politicians who are not directly related to the
elections and have participated to show their support to the party or the
individual contesting the elections. A significant example would be Narendra
Modi campaigning in Karnataka state elections of 2013. While in certain
cases the spiritual-head, the candidate and the campaigner can be different
individuals, one also witnesses situations where single individual takes
multiple responsibilities.
Sonia Gandhi campaigning in Gujarat, 2012
In Gujarat 2012 elections, an analysis of the role played by Sonia Gandhi wil bring home the
differences between Spiritual-head and campaigner. As head of Congress, Sonia Gandhi
would represent the Spiritual-head in the party, who directs the organisation based on her
vision. She also represents herself in her constituency of Rae Bareilly and therefore is also
a candidate, and when she campaigns on behalf of other Congress candidates, she takes
on the additional role of campaigner as well.
Image taken from commons depository.
The success record of campaigners in terms of being able to deliver victories
for candidates, other then themselves, is mixed one. Along with the history of
elections of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh etc., we now have the results of
Karnataka assembly elections for analysis. The failure of Narendra Modi,
who campaigned in Karnataka on behalf of BJP, to deliver a win in
Karnataka assembly elections 2013, points out that campaigners may not be
sufficient to obtain voters' confidence and the vote.
18
With all these distinctions – spiritual-head, candidate, and campaigner, who
actually drives a campaign? Who is the person who can lay claim credit in
case of a win, or would have to accept responsibility in case of a defeat?
During the campaign, to whom should the lowest party worker look up to for
directions? This role is discussed in the following chapter.
19
5 Campaign-Leader
The man who ranges in No Man's Land
Is dogged by shadows on either hand
- James H. Knight-Adkin
The campaign-leader operates in the middle-ground, placed in between
ideology of the spiritual-head and the harsh realities of the political
landscape. A campaign – leader's job is the most strenuous of all the roles
identified. He/she is the person who would have to be aware of the
challengers, their strengths and weaknesses, the faults and shortcomings of
the spiritual-head he/she campaigns for, the failings of the members of own
party-members, the trade-off that goes on in different decisions at multiple
levels along with the challenges to his/her own position that may come from
both within and without.
Without someone at the helm of affairs, the elements of the campaign will
never be aligned together and is likely to operate in bits and pieces.
Therefore we define this role of the campaign-leader, the equivalent of
sarsenapati. The person in this role takes a panoramic view of the entire
campaign, plans and guides the different individuals and every other
possible resource in order to deliver a victory to his/her spiritual-head.
While the spiritual-head provides the ideological underpinning to the
campaign, the campaign-leader directs the campaign in terms of the
strategies and tactics to the extent that, if required by the campaign-leader,
the spiritual-head will be required to subordinate his/her words and deeds to
the requirement of the strategy as formulated by the campaign-leader.
Great thought has to be given to the person taking up the role of campaign-
leader. In elections where different parties ally together, resolving the issue
of campaign-leader will be of the utmost significance for the parties in the
coalition.
This role allow us to account for situations wherein political parties dominant
in certain states, try to expand in other states, which may be either due to
political entrepreneurship among certain individuals trying to leverage a
party's brand in another region offering a win-win situation to the
stakeholders concerned, or a conscious strategy of the political party
concerned. For example, Trinamool Congress's foray into Uttar Pradesh and
plans in Himachal Pradesh can be cited as examples.32
In Trinamool's case,
the role of spiritual head remains with Mamata Banerjee, while that of the
candidate and campaign-leader in the different states are played by the
32 TMC’s foray in UP was was led by Shyam Sundar Sharma who won the Mat constituency of Mathura in
Assembly bye-election in 2012. From http://news.outlookindia.com
20
candidates contesting as Trinamool's representative. For independent
candidates, in absence of an organisation, the roles of spiritual-head,
candidate, and campaign-leader may well be played out primarily by the sole
individual.
Does that necessarily imply that in a campaign there will always be distinct
persons taking on different roles – one for being the spiritual-head, another
for candidate and the third for being the campaign-leader? The answer
would be: not necessarily. These conceptual distinctions are made so as to
account for certain real life situations as illustrated. While, theoretically, all
three – the spiritual-head, the candidate, and the campaign-leader - may be
different individuals, one has to look consequences of such a situation. How
would the electorate perceive such a combination where the local candidate
is more like a quasi chess-piece for a distant power centre is a question that
has to be thought through before embarking on such a course of action.
Nitish's refusal to Modi's campaign in Bihar
Much had been written about Nitish’s refusal to allow Narendra Modi from campaigning in
Bihar in 2009 and 2012 general elections as evidence of 'frosty relationshsip' between
them.
The concept of campaign-leader allows us to re-analyse the issue in a different light, and
examine as to whether such a refusal was justified or not. Nitish’s refusal prevented any
possible situation where he would have been required to subordinate his campaign to the
aspirations of BJP leadership, raising questions about the real-driver, the Spiritual-head as
well as the campaign-leader of the campaign. The strategic significance of being the on-the-
ground leader and being the campaign-leader of the campaign, as compared to out-of-
context leader Narendra Modi was probably not lost on Nitish Yadav. Nitish's refusal
probably avoided a muatually detrimental situation. The argument about Nitish worrying
about the impact on the Muslim vote may be an additional, but is argued using the
emergent theoretical concept of spiritual-head to be a secondary, factor.
Mamata Banerjee’s highly publicised assertiveness in setting the trend in
selection of candidates and deciding the seat sharing in West Bengal state
assembly elections, 2011 can be an apt example to understand the issues
being discussed in this section. If she had not done that, instead of her, the
perception of the campaign-leader in the minds of the electorate could have
shifted to Congress leadership at the centre. This could have led to the idea
that the local issues have been subordinated to the strategic agenda of the
national party. Such a shift could have been damaging to her individual
candidature as well as to her party candidates.
One can look back to the loss suffered by B. C. Khanduri led BJP in
Uttarakhand in 2012 state elections and hypothesise about the reasons for
the same. Could the subsuming the role of campaign-leader as well as that
of spiritual-head in local state affairs to party leadership at the centre be one
of the reasons, among the other possible reasons of internal strife in the
21
state BJP etc., for BJP losing the favour of electorate?33
While the RSS represents the spiritual-head, the organisation providing the
ideology that guides BJP, in Gujarat elections of 2012, Narendra Modi’s
strong communication about his vision, and his aggressive campaigning, led
to no doubts in the mind of the electorate in Gujarat about who the spiritual-
head in the state was. The total control on the campaign also made him the
campaign-leader of the entire campaign, keeping a tight leash on the entire
campaign.
Without spiritual-head and campaign-leader
Lok Paritan, formed in 2006 by graduates from IIT Bombay and IIT Kanpur, attracted much
attention among younger voters, especially on online forums. However the party had not
been able to achieve much success in the elections. Probably one can look at the lack of a
significant individual in the party, who can be identified as the spiritual-head. The lack of a
powerful campaign-leader probably is probably an added compounding factor.
Such may be the case with the numerous political parties which fail to make any impact on
the political landscape.
This concludes the section on the campaign-leader and the significance of
that role in campaign.
33 Uttarakhand polls: Khanduri sweats amid rebellion, strong opponent. From The Times of India. Jan 27,
2012.
22
6 Candidate - Categories
Science is the systematic classification of experience.
- George Henry Lewes
The following gives a tentative list of different categories of candidates, who
enter the contest either on their own or are nominated by their respective
political parties, after which. some of them mature to being spiritual-heads or
campaign-leaders.
6.1 Inheritors
Nothing succeeds like ones own successor.
- Clarence Meredith Hincks
Family names have a history of success in leading the next generation to a
successful launch of political career, including guiding an individual to the
Parliament, with reportedly 21 out of 30 MPs below the age of 35 coming
from political families.34
The next generation is saved the trouble of starting
their careers as a lowly cadre or foot-soldier, and is placed directly at the
helm of affairs in a political party.
The families are not also shy of modifying norms to suit their ends. As
reported on the amendment of a constitutional order which stipulated that
only those born on Lakshwadeep could be included in the Scheduled Tribe
list, “without this amendment Delhi-born Hamdulla, son of former Union
power minister P. M. Sayeed, could not contest from Lakshwadeep”. 35
Apart from the significant examples within Indian National Congress,
Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, and DMK in Tamil Nadu, other examples,
to quote but a few, as members of parliament in 2009, are: Mausam Noor,
27, the Congress MP and grand-niece of A B A Ghani Khan Chowdhury, the
MP from Malda for 26 years; Congress party's Mohammad Hamdulla
Sayeed AB, son of former Union power minister P M Sayeed and Jayant
Chaudhary, 30, the MP from Mathura from the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and
grandson of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh and RLD chief
Ajit Singh's son.36
There is no doubt, for a candidate, being in the family has lot of advantages
as compared to an outsider. The previous generation’s persona gets
extrapolated, other things remaining unchanged, to the next generation.
Such a tentative hypothesis might explain the win of the next generation
candidates like Priya Dutt, daughter of Sunil Dutt, from Mumbai North
34 In the name of the father & grandfather...May 21, 2009. Accessed from http://election.rediff.com
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
23
Central, who, after her first win in 2005, won again by defeating lawyer
Mahesh Jethmalani by a margin of almost 200,000 votes, for Mumbai North
Central seat.37
Dynasties in Indian democracy
The most famous dynasty in history of Indian democracy is the one that starts from
Jawaharlal Nehru. After Nehru, the mantle of leadership passed on to Indira Gandhi, with
the baton taken by Rajiv Gandhi after her assissination. After the unfortunate assassination
of Rajiv Gandhi, the leadership of Congress was handled by Sonai Gandhi, and now with
the entry of Rahul Gandhi, we have him as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the Congress
party.
Among other examples of dynasties is that of the Abdullah family in Kashmir. In Tamil Nadu,
we have similar examples. Apart from M. Karunanidhi who has been the mainstay of family
in politics, eldest son M K Azhagiri, youngest son Stalin, daughter Kanimozhi also a Rajya
Sabha MP, his grandnephew Dayanidhi Maran etc., who are all actively involved in political
careers.38
The newest family that has emerged is that of Lalu Yadav who launched his sons
Tej Pratap and Tejaswi into politics, with the argument that it was time to advocate the case
of youth. During the launch, the presence of his daughter Misa Bharti also indicated the
possible role for her in the near future.39
In certain cases, opposition obliges, knowingly or unknowingly, by putting a
weak challenge. If one were to question the issue of family legacy, the
constituency of Mandi (Himachal Pradesh) would probably be a good case. It
was in news due to former union minister Sukh Ram who was campaigning
for his son Anil Sharma [Kumar], a Congress candidate. Sukh Ram had
been pleading ill health to avoid conviction in a 1996 telecom irregularities
case, and was on interim bail granted by the Supreme Court as per media
reports. What was also in the news, and which is relevant here is BJP's
choice of candidate - D.D. Thakur, who had earlier lost two consecutive
assembly elections in 2003 and 2007.40
The advantage for BJP in nominating
a candidate with a history of repeated loss in the very same constituency is
an interesting question for any student of politics.
Similarly, the win of Abhijit Mukherjee, son of President Pranab Mukherjee,
and Congress candidate in Jangipur Lok Sabha by-election and whether it
was facilitated by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress abstaining, would
be an interesting point to explore for students of politics.41
37 'I won the first election because of my father' - April 30, 2009. From www.rediff.com
38 Relative values: Meet India's political families, May 26, 2009. From http://ibnlive.in.com
39 Lalu Prasad launches his sons at massive anti-Nitish rally. May 16, 2013. From
www.timesofindia.com
40 Ex-telecom minister campaigning for son in Himachal . From http://www.sify.com , & ANIL KUMAR, MLA
MANDI, From http://www.hindustanpages.com
41 Pranab Mukherjee's son wins Jangipur by-poll by just over 2500 votes. 2012. From http://www.ndtv.com
24
6.1.1 Successes and failures of different generations
You fail to recognize that it matters not what someone is born, but what they grow to
be!
-from the movie Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
However not all candidates have been able to successfully leverage their
family name. The 2012 elections of Uttar Pradesh year saw two powerful
families pitted against each other – Indian National Congress headed by
Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party headed by Mulayam Singh and his son
Akhilesh Yadav. The results hint at factors more than just the name. The
same has been indicated twice in Gujarat, first in 2007 and then in 2012,
wherein Rahul Gandhi participated and directed Indian National Congress's
campaign without being able to dislodge BJP's hold on power.
Generation Disconnect: Poster Linking Varun Gandhi to Sanjay Gandhi42
While Varun Gandhi has emerged as a leader in his own right, one can ask as to whether
he has been able to achieve the stature equivalent to that possessed by his father.
In cases where the win is predominantly driven by the weight of the party’s
brand name and resources, rather than by the influence of the individual
concerned, the advantage for a party is negligible; the party adds more value
to the individual’s career rather than the other way round. This becomes
even more when the glories of the previous older generation leader fade
away from the memories of the population.
A deciding factor leading to success of inheritors is the memory of earlier
generation in the minds of the voters. An interesting comment reflecting the
same, with regard to the poster reminding voters about Sanjay Gandhi, was
put up on a website: www.satyameva-jayate.org: “50% of Indians who were
perhaps not even born when Sanjay Gandhi died”.
42 Doosra* Sanjay Gandhi? May 26, 2010. From http://satyameva-jayate.org. Image used with permission.
25
In the coming elections of 2014, one would find new candidates in this
category. For example, the chronicle of success of Tej Pratap and Tejaswi,
both sons of Lalu Prasad should be of interest to students of politics.43
6.2 Spiritual-Head's Nominee
The true test of a leader is whether his followers will adhere to his cause from their
own volition, enduring the most arduous hardships without being forced to do so,
and remaining steadfast in the moments of greatest peril.
- Xenophon
Though all candidates as described in the following sections, as well as
those in the inheritor category, have to be nominated or selected by the
party's spiritual-heads, some candidates, in certain situations explicitly
exemplify spiritual – head's choice.
The same is also epitomized by extreme examples during panchayat
elections, where women candidates are put up to represent their husbands.
The phenomenon has been delightfully captured by journalist Seram Neken
and is given in the following box.
From husband to wife
Forced to retreat as the constituencies get reserved for women, the men explore the
feminine power from their families. "Man changes words from Love Me to Love my Wife".
Ignoring their capabilities, wives, daughters, grand-daughters, daughters-in-law etc., are
promoted to candidature.” 44
Women candidates represent this category most commonly. With due
respect to the gender, the ladies might be elected but it seems apparently
that the ‘real power’ remains with their spouses or political mentors, if the
reports about them, specially within the context of panchayat elections, are
true.
As per reports, “...in Faizabad, legislator and national general secretary of
the Samajwadi Party, Awadhesh Prasad, is reported to have managed a win
for his wife Sona Devi”. Regarding the issues in the neighbouring districts of
Maharjganj and Siddharhnagar, it was reported that former parliamentarian
Pankaj Chaudhary had got Ujjwala Chaudhary, his mother, and Sadhana
Chaudhary, his sister elected.45
43 Lalu launches his own Gen Next at rally. From The Times of India, May 16.2013.
44 VOTE FOR MY WIFE: A different facet of Women Empowerment in Manipur Panchayat Elections. 2012.
From http://www.hueiyenlanpao.com
45 Women win top panchayat posts, but husbands 'rule'. 2000. From http://www.rediff.co.in
26
6.3 Movie Stars
Holier-than-thou for the public and unholier-than-the-devil in reality.
- Grace Kelly
The glamour in Indian elections is primarily brought forth by the candidates
who shift careers from the dream world of movies to the real world of politics.
Movie stars in the south have behaved different from that of the north. In the
south they have created their own parties and been the torch-bearers as well
as campaign-leaders. In the north, most of the candidates – movie stars
have been content to be the candidates in the elections.
How have the stars fared? The answers vary, from experiences in the
southern states which have had leaders like Jayalalithaa Jayaram,
Karunanidhi, late M.G. Ramachandran and late N. T. Rama Rao who have
risen to head state governments to situations in northern states which have
seen Amitabh Bachchan, Shabana Azmi, Jaya Bachchan, Shatrughan
Sinha, Sanjay Dutt etc., playing relatively minor roles. 46
NT Rama Rao : the movie star who shone bright
The three biggest success stories of film stars-turned-politicians are from the south: the late
N.T. Rama Rao or NTR in Andhra Pradesh and the late M.G. Ramachandran or MGR and
AIADMK leader Jayaram Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu.
Image taken from commons depository.
This could be due to the vision, espoused by the cine stars of south as
compared to those of the north, which has been strongly flavoured by
regional nationalism, or a genuine concern for social causes for some, or a
combination of both.47
46 In article - Southern movie stars fare better in politics.From http://www.sify.com
47 Ibid.
27
Actors have come to represent the aspirations of their fans, and their deaths
have been treated as a personal loss by their supporters, which have been
followed by suicides by their followers, riots, and looting, prompting the
police to resort to shoot-at-sight orders.48
The episodes following the death
of MG Ramachandran in 1987, and Karnataka film star Rajkumar in 2006
may be cited as examples of hysteria which the death of movie stars have
been able to generate in their supporters.
What is it that movie stars have to attract the population in the southern
states as compared to the northern states? Certain tentative hypotheses
can be made:
1. Ability to mould the collective mind, in the absence of credible
opposition, or
2. In absence of credible achievements in other spheres of public life,
the ‘achievements’ in the ‘dream world are extrapolated to the real
life by the population. In regions marked by governance failures
movie stars offer hope to the electorate that they will live up their
hero-image. As put forward by BBC respondent Damian, who had
followed the campaign of Chiranjeevi in 2009 “The difference is the
poor have a new hero to believe in now, the man they already
idol”.49
6.4 Sports Stars
I don't know anything that builds the will to win better than competitive sports.
-Richard M Nixon
The kind of fan following which the movie stars have is hardly matched by
that of sportsperson, but they have provided valuable support to different
political parties. For example, Mohammad Azharuddin joined Indian National
Congress in the Indian general election, 2009 contested from Moradabad in
western Uttar Pradesh,50
Kirtivardhan Bhagwat Jha Azad, who had come
from a political family (his father Bhagwat Jha Azad was former Chief
Minister of Bihar) went on to become a member of parliament on a Bharatiya
Janata Party ticket from Darbhanga, Bihar, and was previously an MLA from
Delhi's Gole Market constituency. Other significant name is Aslam Sher
Khan, Indian hockey player and a former member of the Indian team which
won the gold medal in 1975 World Cup. Aslam Sher Khan was Congress
Member of Parliament and a Union Minister as well. In December 1997,
Aslam Sher Khan joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but resigned from
the party on 27 January 1999.51
Navjot Singh Sidhu, a two time winner of
48 Why Mumbai has shut down today. 2012. From http://www.firstpost.com
49 India's film star election candidate. 23 April 2009. Video accessed on August 24, 2012 from
http://news.bbc.co.uk /2/hi/south_asia/8015188.stm
50 Mohammed Azharuddin. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
51 Aslam Sher Khan. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
28
Amritsar seat on BJP ticket would be a good example of contestant, but has
been following the trend of movie stars of north, where they become
members of an established party rather than starting a party from scratch.52
6.5 Philosopher
Be a philosopher; but, amidst all your philosophy, be still a man.
- David Hume
Individuals driven primarily with a very public and passionately espoused
world-view, sometimes radically distinct as compared to the existing one,
tend to be in this category. They are driven by an extreme sense of
dissatisfaction with the status quo and are driven to challenge and change it.
Within this, we have two sub-categories:
6.5.1 Philosopher - Mentor
The person who would develop a second rung of leaders to carry forth the
philosophy during his/her time as well as in his/her absence. The protégés
would both be encouraged and guided to go ahead and develop the party
and take the necessary steps to realize the philosophy, or would in some
cases be developed to take over after the demise of the leader. Kanshi
Ram's name will always go together with that of his protégé Mayawati, and
he would be a shining example of this category.53
6.5.2 Philosopher - Candidate
This category of philosopher is more in the nature of a lone rebel with his/her
band of followers. While he/she would also have his philosophy, the focus on
development of protégés and of the organization is relegated to the side-
lines, and the predominant focus is on the personalised philosophy driven
attempts to change the status-quo. Success of such candidates is often
restricted to his/her constituency as lack of leadership down the ranks and
maybe of a well developed organization constricting further growth. Bal
Thackeray, exemplifies the possibilities of such candidates, driven by a
strong philosophy that resonates with the population, to rise in the political
landscape.54
Adityanath Yogi, the parliamentarian from Gorakhpur Lok
Sabha constituency may be cited here as another example.55
The success of philosophy, among other things, is dependent on to what
extent the philosophy resonates with the electorate, with a narrowly defined
philosophy becoming a possible constraint while a broadly defined
52 Navjot Singh Sidhu. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
53 Mayawati. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org Interested readers are requested to
refer to Behenji: A Political Biography of Mayawati by Ajoy Bose, New Delhi: Penguin Books India: 2008.
54 Bal Thackrey. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
55 Adityanath Yogi. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
29
philosophy would allow the party more space for expansion. The shelf life of
a philosophy is driven also by the breadth of the philosophy, which is
assessed with respect to electorate's other dominant, but possibly unstated,
expectations.
An example would be the domination of Bihar by Lalu Yadav. Riding the
wave of political empowerment for backward castes in Bihar, the state which
had seen the exploitation of backward castes for probably the longest period
after India's freedom, the shift from Lalu Yadav took place as the ideology
plank was rendered hollow by the failures in governance, and lack of
economic development in the state.
6.6 The Outsiders
In the fell clutch of circumstance, I have not winced nor cried aloud.
Under the bludgeonings of chance, My head is bloody, but unbowed.
- William Ernest Henley
Outsiders represent war-scarred veterans from the out-land, different
domains, unsullied by any compromises made in the course of their careers.
There are two categories: the first category represents individuals who have
cut their teeth in politics, either as a trade union leader, as exemplified by
George Fernandes, or as the case of Lalu Yadav illustrates, as a student
leader.
The second category represents individuals typically with government
service background, their initial careers marked with dramatic challenges
and successes in a world different from politics. They may enter politics
either due to their dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs and would
want to take responsibility to clean things up, or are co-opted by political
parties looking forward to shore up their chances of winning the elections. In
some cases, this move of co-option by political parties may represent the
only credible way to gain rapid success, for example, for a newly formed
political party. Maj. Gen. (Retd) Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, AVSM, in
Uttarakhand,56
and Dr. Ajoy Kumar, IPS in Jharkhand,57
would be cases
where the political parties have leveraged on their legacy and achieved
successes. Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan, IAS, in Andhra Pradesh58
would be an
example where he created his own political party.
In spite of having no experience in politics, the presence of Outsiders may
be game changers in certain contexts. Even in circumstances where political
parties may not have a distinct and credible vision to offer to electorate, the
presence of Outsiders creates a powerful signal to the electorate, signifying
an extrapolation of legacy of the Outsider to the party and the party leaders,
or founders in case of a newly formed party. It may be noted that this is in
56 B. C. Khanduri. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
57 Ajay Kumar. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
58 Jayaprakash Narayan. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org
30
stark contrast to the case of Inheritors where the legacy of the party, party
leaders or party founders is extrapolated to the Inheritors.
Outsiders place themselves at significant risks when they shift to a new
domain. If their statuses and accompanying apparatuses in the previous
domain had contributed to their achievements, then outside that world, bereft
of the power and authority, it is possible to end up like the powerful crocodile
out of its element, or when unable to understand the betrayals possible in
politics, to paraphrase Thomas Hardy's depiction, as biblical Samson, shorn
of his locks.
6.7 Past Election Winners
The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it.
- Thomas S. Monson
Representing individuals who have held the position of power and have had
opportunity to prove their skills and abilities to the electorate. This category
does not include the former players in general – those who have been in
politics for long time and can be termed as old warhorses, unless they were
in power positions. Based on their performance in power positions, there can
be two distinct sub-categories:
6.7.1 Governance Case Studies
These are those candidates who have been at a post of responsibility and
authority and have created a showcase of governance, or have been able to
turn around moribund situations and thus have ensured that their deeds and
results they have obtained have led to a legacy difficult for electorate to
ignore, and problematical for opponents to challenge or deny.
6.7.2 Governance Failures
The other side of the coin is a category where individuals have created a
legacy of non-performance or far-reaching failures in governance that is too
durable to deny. If one were to leaf through the newspapers published during
their rule the articles and comments that one would find about such
candidate's tenure can be collated together to create encyclopedia-sized
treatises.
These candidates have managed to create the proverbial ‘new level zero’ in
governance, details of which can be educative to those interested in public
administration with regard to what not to do. Often they are known by names
given to them by the population. For example, one feature of Gujarat's
Navnirman movement of the early 1970s was the label ‘Chimanchor.’given to
Chimanbhai Patel, the then chief minister,59
the label proving enough to
59 Corruption is not everyone's cause. 2012. From http://indiatoday.intoday.in
31
effect a Congress defeat in Gujarat in 1975.60
The Story of Two Regimes
The states of Bihar and West Bengal provide good examples where two different political
parties have ruled. Coming to power in 1990, Lalu Prasad Yadav became an icon for the
‘oppressed,’ typically backward castes. In 1995, the Lalu’s Janata Dal split and Lalu named
his party the Rashtriya Janata Dal adopting the symbol of hurricane lantern. True to his
adopted symbol, RJD swept the polls with an unprecedented mandate. However the
governance issues started to emerge soon after. The most famous one was the fodder
scam. The enormity of the fodder scam was without precedence, with some reports
mentioning siphoning of billions of dollars from the Animal Husbandry and Fodder
department that was being aided by the World Bank. Apart from the corruption, Lalu's rule
came to be synonymous with nepotism. His three brothers-in-law, having serious criminal
charges ranging from murder to kidnapping and extortion, were made ministers. The worst
case which showcased the helplessness of government machinery was perhaps the charge
of the rape of an IAS officer’s wife Champa Biswas against Mritunjay Yadav, a close
associate of former chief minister Laloo Prasad Yadav.61
Kidnapping became an industry,
affecting people from all walks of life. Victims of kidnapping included doctors, businessmen,
students, government officials etc., with episodes of kidnapping happening on almost on a
daily basis plunging Bihar into total chaos and anarchy."62
Contrasted to 15 years in Bihar, in West Bengal it was a case of 34 years of Left Front's
rule. During the three decades of rule, industry moved out of the state and unemployment
soared. "Bengal's poor became worse off than poor folks in most other states. Healthcare
and education were ruined, graft mushroomed and political violence became
endemic."63
What were the charactieristics of Left Front’s strategy that maintained the grip on
the voters? The article by Abheek Barman in Economic Times gives a glimpse. The
"strategy of territorial control, called elaka dokhol in Bangla, was one of the Left's most
potent political weapons" maintained by the armed wing of CPM; termed the harmad, it was
used in battles for territory as well as to silence opposition. Apart from that CPM provided
benefits for loyalists, leading to rural poor, who had to depend on government to look up to
CPM. These reportedly explain why districts like Burdwan, Bankura, Purulia and Medinipur,
which were poor and largely agricultural in nature, were dominated by Left Front.64
The Y2K led wave in information technology in 1990s, and the subsequent boom in IT and
ITES services which happended in different parts of the country, bypassed both the states,
and was a conversation topic at the street level among the unemployed. Those who could
migrated out. Those who could not had to adapt and survive.
Between these two extreme examples, would be candidates who have
60 BJP follows Congress path to ruin. May 10, 2013. From http://www.rediff.com
61 The Patna High Court in its order set aside the trial court order convicting the monther – son duo and
acquited them, after 12 years. As per reports, the single – judge bench of Justice Mandhata Singh had
found that the relationship between Champa and Mrityunjay of consensual nature. Source: 12 years on, HC
relief for rape convict. May 22, 2010. Accessed on May 11, 2013 from
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-05-22/patna/28310206_1_ias-officials-champa-biswas-
convict
62 Accessed on November 12, 2012 from http://www.instablogs.com/lalu-prasad-yadav-end-of-days.html
63 Left rules West Bengal for 34 years and ruins the state. 2011. From The Times of India.
64 Ibid.
32
stayed somewhere in the middle, the perception of their work among the
population will position them somewhere near to being status quo-ist.
33
7 Candidates' Style-scripts
The beauty of a move lies not in its’appearance, but in the thought behind it.
- Aaron Nimzovich
While the styles of performance vary from candidate to candidate and from
situation to situation, the dominant style-scripts of different candidates are
briefly dwelt upon in the following sections.
7.1 The Maverick
Weirdism is definitely the cornerstone of many an artists' career.
- E.A. Bucchianeri
The eccentric and the nonconformist individual is an interesting spectacle in
often the boring world of politics. Every day electorate faces dreary media-
reports about crimes, stories about corruption in high places, the abuse of
power and so on. In such a world a maverick endears himself or herself to a
section of population for being just that. On top of that, if he manages an
enormous fund of support from that segment, he has the ability to win
elections.
Being a maverick is being more than eccentric in one’s behaviour and
speech. The population's expectations rise due to the changing
demographics, differential prosperity and opportunities, and news about
developments in rest of the world. If these expectations are not heeded to by
the maverick, the candidate then creates a situation where his earlier deeds
and words no longer charm the audience, with the scripts appearing stale
and bereft of the magic which initially endeared him/ her to the population.
Among other things that will kill the initial goodwill or that adoration, are
actions/ outcomes due to which the maverick ends up recognised as no
different from the others, or the maverickism becoming perceived as a cloak
for failures by the population. The promised utopia fails to materialise, and
the harsh realities of real world erode the faith.
Historically Lalu Yadav was the maverick in Indian politics. Ruling over Bihar
for nearly 15 years (including those in which Rabri Devi was the Chief
Minister), the initial good will was lost in the wake of scams and scandals.
The lack of economic development and dearth of jobs were significant
contributing factors. The external environment too made the situation worse,
as people started to benchmark their own state to the other states where
their friends and relatives migrated to, or they themselves were migrating to,
in search of economic benefits. This failure of governance was often badly
rubbed in by the treatment meted out in states like Punjab and Maharastra
where people from Bihar used to migrate in search for work. The
controversies created by Shiv Sena during Chath puja in Maharashtra is a
34
case in point.
7.2 The Stoic Performer
The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious.
- Marcus Aurelius
In contrast to a maverick, the stoic is an epitome of the dictum that emotions
lead to destructive errors of judgement. In word and deed, there is a steady
consistency which flows towards a larger goal, though not manifest in all its
totality, to the common man. Reflective and considerate, such a candidate
often ends up as the population's choice after the disappointment of a
maverick's rule. Historically there have been many leaders who have been
followers of stoicism, for example P. V. Narasimha Rao, about whom it was
said by Natwar Singh with reference to Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru, “Nehru had a
temper, PV a temperament”.65
In recent times the example of Nitish Kumar
stands tall, his rule gaining “popularity due to his initiating a series of
developmental and constructive activities including “building of long-delayed
bridges, re-laying roads that had ceased to exist, appointing over 100,000
school teachers, ensuring that doctors worked in primary health centers, and
keeping crime in check”.66
7.3 The Disciplined Party Soldier
Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die.
- Lord Alfred Tennyson
The candidate in this cateogry, as the title suggests, presents oneself as a
true follower of the party command and is best exemplified by BC Khanduri,
who resigned in accord with the party-leadership wishes.
However, a political leader behaving as a disciplined soldier, may not be,
what the population probably expects. Such a behavior might imply to the
supporters that the people who elected the candidate to power are a second
priority as compared to the people in party hierarchy and their wishes.
7.4 The Constant Warrior
Courage, above all things, is the first quality of a warrior.
- Karl von Clausewitz
Such a candidate maintains his/her touch with the electorate irrespective of
the fact that he/she is in power or out of power. The constant touch is
65 P. V. Narasimha Rao. Accessed on April 2, 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org
66 Nitish Kumar. Accessed on April 2, 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org
35
maintained by his/her focus on burning issues and getting involved with the
challenges being faced by relevant sections of the electorate.
For such a candidate every day brings forth new opportunities, which are
weighed and acted upon to communicate to the electorate at large, as well
as to showcase the vision and find flaws with the current state of affairs. Raj
Thackrey’s actions would be an example which would offer us much to learn
from. From organising protest against the toll charges on roads towards
organising a protest towards the violence by Muslims,67
towards supporting
policemen inflicted by violence,68
his personality is worthy of study by
students of politics. If one were to compare it with Mamata Banerjee’s style
during her struggle against the ruling Left Front, one would find certain
distinctive similarities.
7.5 Pre-Election Awakening
Tis the voice of the sluggard; I heard him complain, "You have wak'd me too soon, I
must slumber again.
- Isaac Watts
The person who remains silent and wakes out of his/ her slumber at the
approach of the elections is often a common phenomenon in electoral
contests. Even more common are candidates, who have good intentions, but
do not recognise the amount of investment required in order to be accepted
by the electorates. Many candidates, both from established political parties
and those fighting elections as independent candidates, would fall in this
category.
This concludes a tentative list of the style-scripts demonstrated by the
candidates.
67 MNS rally: Raj Thackeray spread political net wider. 2012. From http://www.firstpost.com
68 Disillusioned cop gifts Raj Thackeray a rose, lands in trouble. From Mid-Day. August 22, 2012.
36
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Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
Election campaign
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Election campaign
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Election campaign

  • 1. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2348539
  • 2. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2 ABOUT THIS DOCUMENTABOUT THIS DOCUMENTABOUT THIS DOCUMENTABOUT THIS DOCUMENT 1. This document is uploaded on ssrn.com with certain pages blanked out for copyright reasons. Full access to the book may be had from the publisher whose website is www.fph.co.in 2. Comments regarding the work may be emailed to author – s_bagchi@xlri.ac.in
  • 3.
  • 4. iv Contents Preface ................................................................................................v Acknowledgement .............................................................................vi Author’s notes ...................................................................................vii 1 Introduction ................................................................................1 2 Existing Theoretical Landscape ................................................6 3 Campaign ................................................................................. 13 4 Roles in a Campaign ................................................................. 15 5 Campaign-Leader..................................................................... 20 6 Candidate - Categories............................................................. 23 7 Candidates' Style-scripts .......................................................... 34 8 The Electorate........................................................................... 37 9 The Voter's Search .................................................................... 69 10 Strategising the campaign ....................................................... 85 11 For incumbents...................................................................... 104 12 Concluding Notes .................................................................. 123 13 References............................................................................. 124
  • 5.
  • 6. Soumendra Narain Bagchi Foundation Publishing House First Floor, 4, Tulsi Apartment, Govind Mitra Road, Patna - 800004, Bihar, India Tel. No. : 0612-2300557, Telefax : 0612-2300819, Mobile : 9031789345 Email : info@fph.co.in, URL : www.fph.co.in
  • 7. First published in India in 2013 by Foundation Publishing House, Patna © Soumendra Narain Bagchi 2013 ISBN : 9788192312668 Cover images: By Al Jazeera English : (1. Congress supporters, 2. BJP and Shiv Sena flags & 3. Samajwadi Socialist Party rally) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons Typeset by Author Printed at: Goyal Paper Udyog M. E. School Road, Jugsalai, Jamshedpur, Jharkhand – 831 006 Phones : (0657) 2291651, 2292887 Email : goyalpaper@hotmail.com The views and opinions expressed in this book are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of XLRI, Jamshedpur, and, the publishers are not in any way liable for the contents of this book. While every effort has been made to verify the authenticity of the information contained in this book, the publishers are not in any way liable for the same. All rights reserved. This book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, hired out, resold, circulated, and except for the content taken from creative commons depositories, no reproduction in any form, in whole or in part, except for quotations for further research on the topic or for reviews, may be made without written permission of the publishers.
  • 8. v Preface Living in a society is bound to lead to what is called politics, an aggregate of human aspirations, motives and behaviours. Probably the only humans who were apolitical were Adam and Eve. But then, politics manifested itself among the sons of Adam and Eve. From that mythical start, if one were to go by the Bible, politics has been a constant companion to human beings, manifesting itself in all types of social groups, irrespective of its settings, prompting Aristotle to profess that man, by nature, was a political animal. Reactions to politics vary from a resigned acceptance of its omnipresence, to a pragmatic opinion about it being a necessity in everyday life, to a more cynical ‘last refuge of scoundrels’, from being pointed out as the reason for India’s dismal record in development, to being labelled as the cause of all the ills of the country. Participation in politics of everyday life evokes reactions ranging from passionate debates to sceptical dismissal or passive acceptance. However neither the passionate debate nor the cynical dismissal does anyone any good. Wishful thinking by citizens waiting for better sense to prevail on existing politicians or the system to change on its own somewhat miraculously remains just that. It will take nothing short of a revolution to change things overnight. Even that, for that matter, does not guarantee that the right people would be at the top. The history of many a country is proof enough. The other option, among other possibilities, could be to understand how the so called 'system' works. Once the heuristics that guide the working of the system are unravelled, we could perhaps hope that politics would attract better players. This book is written with that perspective in mind – to decode the hitherto obscure aspects of election-campaign, and present it as subject to clear out mental hurdles that often prevent better people from entering politics, people who may be better suited to the demands of the profession. This book represents a strategic theory of campaigns in electoral contests, aiming to provide a coherent basis to allow exploration into victories and losses in electoral contests.
  • 9. vi AcknowledgementAcknowledgementAcknowledgementAcknowledgement The theory presented in this book had its birth in the month of May 2012 in the form of a working paper in XLRI. From that stage of infancy, the theory has grown enough, despite certain rough edges, to be presented to a larger audience. The journey from the initial working paper to its present stage in the form of a full fledged book has been helped by the discussions and debates with different faculty members of XLRI, which have helped me to identify different gaps in the initial working paper. I gratefully acknowledge Pranav Mishra, my former student and a strategist in his own right, who has been a sounding board for my ideas, providing valuable inputs from time to time. The help given by Ms. Deepa Xavier to polish my ideas as well as my initial document is appreciatively recognized. The patience and fortitude shown by my wife has been remarkable during the course of working on this book. Her support has been crucial in the completion of this book. This book is humbly dedicated to my father, late Sanjeev Narayan Bagchi, whose debt can never be adequately acknowledged. The blessings of my late father-in-law, Dilip Kumar Ganguly, have been a constant source of inspiration for my endeavours. Soumendra Narain Bagchi Jamshedpur May 31, 2013
  • 10. vii Author’s NotesAuthor’s NotesAuthor’s NotesAuthor’s Notes Not too long ago, campaigns implied public walls covered with posters and party graffiti, extensive rallies and speeches, and finally topped with door door campaign by a khadi clad candidate. Now these activities have been accompanied by SMS broadcasts and emails, and debates on Youtube, Facebook or Twitter. Till the late 1990s, the use of official TV channels was a privilege, often taken advantage of by the ruling party. Now many political parties boast of their own satellite based TV channels. Yet the knowledge about the winning combination seems elusive. The losses suffered by political behemoths, in the recent elections and in differe arenas viz., Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal Karnataka along with the last elections of Lok Sabha, are evidence same. This book, for the first time, sets out strategic theory for analysing and strategizing a campaign. The issues deliberated in this book pertain to real life political battles. So are the examples of different players in Indian political world, which are taken to illustrate the concepts. The varied vignettes in this book have been selected from multiple contexts and contests so as to best illustrate the concepts and principles and interweave them with the theoretical narrative, and not with an idea to make this book a compendium on current affairs. To allow the readers to relate to the examples, the illustrations have been taken from the recent past, which of course leads to a certain bias as actions of existing actors, in their respective roles in the political arena, most contemporary examples. Choice of certain examples may be considered contentious as they might appear to focus too much on an individual or a single political party. However that is a function of time, as different individuals and parties occupy different positions at different points of time. For readers, especially those who might take offence regarding choice of examples, one would like to recall the old adage of learning from one’s own mistakes. Regarding learning from other’s mistakes, especially one’s enemies, one might recall the instruction given by the great Chanakya: One should accept good qualities even from an enemy. One should reject bad qualities even of the guru. with posters and party graffiti, extensive rallies and speeches, and finally topped with door-to- door campaign by a khadi clad candidate. Now these activities have been accompanied by SMS broadcasts and emails, and debates on television, 1990s, the use of official TV taken advantage of by the ruling party. Now channels. ms elusive. The losses suffered by political behemoths, in the recent elections and in different h, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, evidence of the for analysing and The issues deliberated in this book pertain to real life political battles. So are the examples of different players in Indian political to illustrate the concepts. The varied vignettes in this from multiple contexts and contests so as to best illustrate the concepts and principles and interweave them with the theoretical book a compendium on current To allow the readers to relate to the examples, the illustrations have been taken from the recent past, which of course leads to a certain bias as actions , will be the may be considered as they might appear to focus too much on an individual or a However that is a function of time, as different parties occupy different positions at different points of time. For readers, especially those who might take offence regarding choice of one would like to recall the old adage of learning from one’s own mistakes, especially one’s enemies, rom an enemy. One should reject
  • 11. 1 Introduction Ein jeder lebt's, nicht vielen ist's bekannt. We are all doing it; very few of us understand what we are doing. - Goethe Politics, a term that encapsulates the good and the bad of a democracy, at the same time also represents the means by which an individual, or a group of individuals, attempt to reform the society according to a particular world view, instead of travelling down the road towards a bloody revolution. The opening up of positions of power to contestants, individuals and political parties, in the form of electoral contests, or simply put the elections, allows the voters to choose from the different ideologies of the contestants, allowing the governed to decide on the governors, with the temporal nature of office creating an accountability mechanism.1 Traditional approaches in political studies have been either philosophical (which is normative in character and exemplified by scholars like Plato, Hobbes, Locke, and Marx), or historical/institutional (both of which incorporate study of development and functioning of political institutions), or legalistic (study of power with regarding to legalistic provisions).2 The study of conduct of the contestants which allow them to win elections has been, unfortunately, neglected. To remedy this, in this book I propose and expound a strategic approach, guided by a single question - how does a candidate or a political party win an election? Congress's Jai Ho versus BJP's Bhai Ho The 2009 general elections witnessed a clash of songs. The rights to the song of Oscar winning movie Slumdog Millionaire were reportedly bought by Indian National Congress Congress and used in its campaign. This was countered by Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) with a parody based on the same tune. How did these initiatives impact outcomes of an election? Do the electorate consider these activities while making their choices, or are these dismissed as pre-election gimmicks? Among the many possible explanations, money, and the entitlements that acompanies it, emerges as the foremost of the candidates. An affluent candidate is able to mobilise the resources necessary for waging an elaborate campaign, and can, if required, go to the extent of ‘buying’ votes, rewarding voters if they vote in his/her favour. Such buying, theoretically, ought to be more straightforward for candidates already entrenched in power. With access to power, funds can be diverted to obtain additional resources like people to participate in rallies, or in certain contexts, the 1 Election. Merriam-Webster online. Retrieved December 24, 2012. 2 Readers interested in the different approaches may refer to any standard book on political science, for example, Bhushan (2011), Biswal (2013) or many credible sources on Internet. 1
  • 12. required muscle power would be more easily accessible. Or, announcement of welfare schemes can be synchronised with the election calendar. One can, therefore, identify the resource based theory, if one were to term it such, as the intitial explanation to explore. Media-Spending based explanation? The Gujarat-assembly elections of 2012 reportedly witnessed a campaign-spending of Rs. 200-500 cr by Narendra Modi in different forms: print ads, firms, campaigns on online forums like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. Such massive communication campaign reportedly caused uneasiness in the mind of Arjun Modhwadia, president of the Gujarat unit of the Congress party, who had to create a counter campaign.3 In absence of data regarding expenditure by Congress, any conclusion would be premature. Ironically BJP, if it hypothetically spent more than Congress in 2012, obtained 115 seats, which was two less than that it won in the 2007 elections! What is overlooked in the media based explanation is Narendra Modi’s win over Congress in 2012 was like a repeat of the 2007 story. In both the elections a high powered Congress campaign was led by Sonia Gandhi + Rahul Gandhi combine. The state assembly election of Uttar Pradesh was one of the most high profile political battles in 2012. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) headed by Mayawati, Samajwadi Party (SP) headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav, BJP with its stalwarts like former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, along with Lal Krishna Advani, Sushma Swaraj among others, and Congress headed by Rahul Gandhi, were the significant parties in the contest. The resource based theory fails to provide adequate answer as to why Samajwadi Party won, winning 224 seats out of 403 assembly constituencies, and the other parties, which one may tentatively argue to be more or less equally endowed, lost.4 Noteworthy was the loss suffered by BSP, which had been ruling the state till the conduct of election, and had all the aforementioned advantages of an incumbent. The wide coverage by media did not pick up any fraudulent means adopted in the elections, which could have been an alternate explanation. Neither can one identify religion or caste based ideology as a significant factor in this election. Uttar Pradesh elections 2012 also witnessed candidates being fielded based on strategic considerations, as reported, rather than on pure ideological considerations. An example would be the candidate profile of BSP - 117 upper caste, including 74 Brahmins and 33 Kshattriyas, 85 religious minorities candidates, 88 SC candidates and 113 OBC candidates.5 Confining oneself to resource based explanation, one will be at a loss to 3 With adspend of Rs 200-500 cr Modi's election PR blitz leaves Congress dazed. 2012 From www.rediff.com 4 Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2012. From http://en.wikipedia.org 5 Bring back BSP to power: Mayawati to party workers. 2012. From http://www.dnaindia.com 2
  • 13. account for the defeat of the ruling Left Front in West Bengal, which was swept out of power after 34 years of uninterrupted rule. In the 2011 assembly elections, apart from the loss of the party, the elections also witnessed political heavy-weight candidate like Buddhadeb Bhattacharya, the West Bengal Chief Minister, losing from Jadavpur constituency, which had been his constituency for the last 20 years.6 Alternate reductionistic explanations, based on religion or caste, or popular terms like wave, lead to similar unsatisfactory conclusions. West Bengal witnessed an massive upsurge towards Trinamool Congress in 2011 assembly elections. Labelled by the media as the ‘Mamata wave’, out of 226 candidates put forward by Trinamool, 184 emerged as winners. One would look at those who did not win, the 42 candidates, as data defying the wave based explantion. Why did not, or could not, these candidates ride the wave? In Gujarat elections of 2012, out of 182 candidates put forth by BJP, 115 'rode' the wave and emerged winners, while for the remaining 67 candidates, the wave could not lift them to glory. Differences in the potency of waves is another puzzle to resolve. Thereotically a wave implies a significant swell of goodwill towards a particular party, which ought to translate into votes for the party candidates. In West Bengal, All India Trinamool Congress had a success rate, based on successfull candidates as a percentage of candidates put forth, of 81.42% while its ally Indian National Congress had a success rate of 63.64%. In contrast, BJP in Gujarat in 2012, with the widely reported Narendra Modi wave, had a success ratio of only 63.19%, lesser than the Congress in West Bengal, where Congress was a weaker ally of Trinamool.7 These facts points out to insufficiency of the wave based explanation, and to possible existence of other factors or variables which need to be considered in order to obtain a more robust explanation. One might be tempted to explain election-results using ‘voters’ preference’ as a catch-all answer, but that again leads us to back to the starting point rather than resolving the puzzle. What accounts for voters’ preferences? And then, what explains the shifts when the voters vote out the incumbent? The statement by Nirmala Sitaraman, BJP spokesperson, explaining the choice of candidates during assembly elections of Gujarat, 2012, “winnability is important”8 provides a clue that it is not just the resource entitlement alone. There is something called winnability, which differentiates candidates, making someone more and others less winnable. What leads to winnability 6 Alok Pandey (2011). The man who beat Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee for the first time in 24 years. May 13, 2011. From http://drop.ndtv.com 7 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in. 8 Modi selects his side, rejects Muslim candidates. 2012. From http://www.hindustantimes.com 3
  • 14. has been however left untouched and undiscussed. Welfare programs – the path to electoral victory? Certain political scientists hold government welfare programs as reasons for electoral contests. For example, Arun R. Swamy in his work "Political Mobilization" argued that Congress’s return to power in 2004 at the head of United Progressive Alliance was predominantly due to “the large poverty alleviation programmes initiatied by the Congress government in the 1980s and 1990s”; continuing with the welfare program based explanation, NREGA, now renamed as MGNREGA, was credited to be “a major, and perhaps the most important reason for the Congress’ victory in 2009” (Swamy, 2010:283). However the welfare scheme based explanation needs to overcome challenges by alternate explanations. The last significant win for Congress prior to 1991 general elections was in 1984 in the aftermath of Indira Gandhi's assassination, after which the Congress had struggled to return to power. It returned to power in 1991 in the aftermath of Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. An alternate sympathy based explanation emerges to counter the welfare program based explanation. One would also like to look at the perspective as to whether it was a win due to efforts of the Congress, or did the mistakes of the opposition help the outcome. The BJP's insistence on "India Shining" despite reported farmers' suicides and starvation deaths in rural hinterland in 2004, and a negative anti-Congress campaign were certain factors that helped the Congress in 2004 and 2009.9 Most of the analysis in media is in the form of post-hoc analysis, or worse, using circular logic. An example is cited from 2012 election related report. Hinting at Congress hoping for anti-incumbency factor, Economic Times published an article containing the lines: “The hopes of cashing in on anti- incumbency in Punjab and Uttarakhand remained a pipedream”.10 A vote against the ruling regime in a particular state becomes a specific instance, and not a cause of the phenomenon. Anti-incumbency is, as an article in Hindu illustrates “one word for many failures” where “different reasons to vote out a government... are usually massed together under this catch-all concept”.11 A look into the history of state assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, the state which has made the term anti-incumbency famous, presents a different picture of the anti-incumbency phenomenon.12 9 Sonia Sarkar (2009). Left, right and centre. The Telegraph. Calcutta. December 27, 2009. 10 Election results 2012: Congress ends up with 28 seats in UP, 6 more than its 2007 tally. From The Economic Times. 11 Five verdicts, one lesson. 2012. From http://www.thehindu.com/ opinion/editorial 12 List of Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu. Accessed from http://en.wikipedia.org 4
  • 15. Table 1: Chief Minsiters of Tamil Nadu The Madras Legislative Asembly Elections of 1946, 1952, 1957, and 1962 witnessed domination by Indian National Congress in the erstwhile Madras State. In 1967, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) came to power defeating Indian National Congress, the first instance of anti-incumbency vote. If one were to consider the entire history, then it would be a tie between anti-incumbency vote and pro-incumbency vote with seven each. Historical evidence of different states forces us to disprove anti-incumbency as a pervasive phenomenon. One example would be the state of Maharashtra which historically has seen a domination of Indian National Congress as the ruling party. Similarly other states like Tripura, Meghalaya, Kerela, Gujarat, Bihar etc., do not provide evidence of electorate that flip- flops in their choice of political party every election. The question regarding what leads to an election victory is a profound one. Not only does it impact the fortunes of a country, but it also represents a significant gap in the existing theory of leadership and politics. In the following chapter the existing theories are explored as to how they stand up to the challenge of explaining the wins and losses of leaders. 5
  • 16. 2 Existing Theoretical Landscape He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a rudder and compass and never knows where he may cast. - Leonardo da Vinci Electoral contests, taking place under the umbrella of the rules and the procedures that are characteristic of the democracy in question, are marked by campaigns of different contestants. Campaigns are typically manifested as rallies, posters, speeches, televised debates, and other related activities engaged in by contestants and their supporters. What are the characteristic of a winning campaign? The prevalent discourse regarding campaigns, specifically in media, is seemingly bereft of any robust explanation which would offer a candidate rudimentary signposts on how to go about planning his/her campaign.13 Literature on related subjects of war-campaigns, politics and governance can be classified into two broad categories - the traditional, pre-1900 and the modern, post-1900. Before moving forward, it would be wise to browse through the existing scholarly works on the allied subjects. The pre-1900 tradition, often practised by those who had developed expertise on any subject through thoughtful observation and deliberation, consisted of presenting one’s ideas in a comprehensive treatise. Examples of the same are the treatises that focused on military campaigns, e.g., of Sun Tzu’s Art of War (circa 512 BCE) and Carl von Claustiwiz’s On War (circa 1830), or on strategies for governance, e.g., Chanakya’s Arthasashtra (circa 350–283 BC) and Niccolò Machiavelli’s The Prince (circa 1530). Some of these works have been extrapolated to contexts different from that originally intended, e.g., On War has been converted into Marketing Warfare by Al Ries and Jack Trout in 1985 while Art of War has been used to explore business strategy as well (e.g., The Art of War for Executives: Ancient Knowledge for Today's Business Professional by Donald G. Krause). However explicit modification for guiding political campaigns in a democracy has not been presented so far. Gustave Le Bon’s The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind (circa 1986) which had psychology of the crowd as its subject matter is an exception. In this work the author had explored electoral crowds. While certainly providing critical insights, the book is not exactly applicable due to the characteristics and working of modern democracies, which are distinctly different from regimes which existed during which the book was written.14 13 One often comes across news of students interning in different political parties,specially when the students come from premier institutes like IIMs or the IITs. Whether that has led to development of any theory or conceptual framework is not known. As of date, there is none publicly available known to the author. 14 The principles articulated by Le Bon are under the premise of the electorate as less willing to think or more or less under the sway of the propaganda of the moment, and that is reflected in the description of electorates as “working men and peasants” which may have been the situation in Gustave’s time. That 6
  • 17. With the rise of academic journals in the 1990s, as major outlets of scholarly work, research output of scholars has altered significantly in format as well as in quantity. In contrast to the holistic treatment of the subject matter in the pre-1900 tradition, the post-1900 practice has been driven predominantly by the search for trends in micro-level data, and the work limited to the space restrictions enforced by journals' editors.15 The inadequacy of such research is not the focus of this paper; the inability of these micro-models to account for the recent election results, especially in the Indian context, or even for that matter the results of elections in any constituency, would suffice to be a pointer to any researcher or any practitioner. An exception to this has been Thomas Holbrook's 1996 study of campaigns of UP presidential elections Do Campaigns Matter? in which the impact of media coverage, conventions, presidential debates, and scandals was studied. While the conclusion was that the campaigns indeed mattered, the variables discussed were limited to US presidential elections. Among the few which explored the role of strategy in politics, Stephen Barber's Political Strategy: Modern Politics in Contemporary Britain focuses on application of strategic concepts in British politics, with the book more of a chronicle of “strategic history of the period” (Barber, 2005: 213). Yet, neither of these two offer clear clarity on the guiding principles that would be instrumental in structuring a campaign. Devoid of a coherent theory, the existing body of literature does not offer any holistic understanding of the subject which would guide either the researcher or the practitioner, particularly in non-western context like that of India, on potency or failings of certain strategic action-choices. Take for example the issue of posters. Would more of posters lead to victory or would it be the rallies on the streets that would be more helpful? What should the speeches delivered by different candidates focus on? How does one predict the impact of these individual elements, not only in isolation, but also taken together, so that one can understand which initiatives mutually reinforce each other and which of the moves probably might be cancelling out each other? As discussed earlier, the resource based theory, which tries to explain the outcomes as a function of the resource engaged by the contestants, initially, was an interesting candidate to start exploring the subject with. This is more however, I believe, would be radically different from the world of today, where the electorate is more often than naught more aware of the ground realities, despite the government propaganda or the so called 'official news'. Therefore to build a theory which has the naivety of the electorate as one of the premises would be to have an ineffectual foundation for the theory. 15 Some of the studies which reflect the same are: the impact on candidate’s vote shares due to changes in campaign contribution restrictions (Stratmann and Aparicio, 2001), the effect of candidate's campaign rhetoric on beliefs of voters (Aragones & Postlewaite, 2000), campaign spending (Geber, 2004), voter’s belief in terms of political efficacy (Vercellotti, 2011), the focus on issues in candidate interaction in competitive and non-competitive elections (Banda, 2011), voters’ responses to campaign promises and later fulfilments (Elinder, Jordahl and Poutvaara, 2008), impact of misleading advertisement on voter participation (Houser, Ludwig and Stratmann 2009) etc. These have been selected primarily to understand the extent of theoretical development done, and should not be construed as to be fully representative of entire post-1900 research available on the subject. 7
  • 18. so in Indian context where it is believed by many that the resources spent during elections by candidates exceed what is declared officially (e.g., see Ray, 2009). This belief has found support in some empirical research done by Kapur and Vaishnav (2011) and by Prabash (2011), to quote a few. Resources are an essential requirement for any endeavour and there is no denying that. However the evidence seems to indicate resources to be more of a necessary condition rather than a sufficient condition for ensuring an election-victory. There is a substantive literature existing on propaganda and its use during election campaigns which may interest any reader. This place is not the place for listing such books. However the subject matter focuses on a single aspect of communication and persuasion, which is considered to be a simplisic view of campaigns. Existing leadership theories from management literature present an alternate perspective. Can these be used to examine electoral battles? There too, one is faced with significant challenges. All leaders are supposed to carry out, with some variation, the essential tasks of 1) identifying and articulating the vision, 2) strategising 3) communicating to ensure shared understandings, meanings and goals, 4) monitoring progress and making mid- course modifications, and 5) developing subordinates, the elements common to all the leadership theories.16 These tasks, modified for the context of electoral contests, are typically carried out by almost all contestants, even more faithfully by those backed by major political parties, with their extensive organisation and resources. If that is so, how does one explain the varying outcomes? The inadequacy of the existing body of leadership literature or the inapplicability of the same in electoral context, is, primarily due to the premise of the theories - that the dyadic relationship between the leader and the follower(s) is already established, and that the different leadership styles as discussed in literature are in reality different action-choices. The followers of the management theories therefore mistake different temporary situation-specific action-principles, such as transactional or transformational, for different leadership styles. In other words, the premise of the existing leadership theories is that the individual leader is already placed at the head of the troops, and his/her sole focus should be (or is) on how to get the troops, i.e., the employees down the hierarchy, to follow him/her towards his/her goal. Such an assumption would be inapplicable in a democratic contest, where the question is how to 16 Leadership theories, as existing, are broadly classified into different types: 1.The “Great Man”, 2.Trait theories, 3.Contingency theory, 4.Situational theory, 5. Behavioral theory, 6. Participative theory, and 7.Management theories, 8.Relationship theory, 9. Servant Leadership etc. For brevity, I have not given details of different theories or a review of the different leadership theories. For a detailed exposition of the leadership theories the reader is advised to consult the existing literature. 8
  • 19. be accepted by, first the initial group who would form the nucleus of the contestant’s organisation, and then by the electorate. Or for cadidates aspiring for party-tickets from established political parties, how does one get nominated to be the party's candidate, after which comes the bigger question of how to win the elections. It is after the declaration of the final results, does one get to be at the position of the authority and power to influence the administrative apparatus to work towards a certain goal. Attempts have been made to overcome the lack of a guiding theory by opinion polls, both formal as well as informal, by different political parties. The results have not been encouraging. As the example of the Uttar Pradesh elections 2012 indicates, such an approach can hardly be termed reliable. Reliability of Opinion Polls: Uttar Pradesh, 2012 Opinion polls by agencies like STAR News-Nilsen and News24 had indicated a hung assembly. A comparison with the final results indicates the extent of error in the predictions. Description BSP Samajwadi Party BJP INC-RLD Others STAR News-Nielsen Opinion Poll 101 135 61 99 7 News24 Opinion Poll 108 127 57 94 17 Final Results 80 224 47 28+9 15 Source of data: Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 201217 Do these examples imply that an understanding of campaigns is lacking, not only among the surveyors, but also among practitioners? It seems difficult to accept that any political party would campaign, with all the investment in terms of time, money and greatest of all, reputation of the individuals concerned, with an intent of losing. The results of 2009 general elections and the comments by some of the senior leaders illustrate certain efforts towards post-result introspection among the national level parties. E.g., it was reported that BJP lost despite having the "ideal platform", with the leaders citing infighting among leaders, excessive dependence on "media management" and "ideological confusion".18 One would be hard-pressed to understand why these issues were ignored during the campaign by the strategists. Available evidence indicates a lack of a precise understanding of the principles at play during electoral contests. One might take as supporting evidence an article published by the prominent Times of India, in relation to 2012 elections in Andhra Pradesh, wherein it was reported that the ruling 17 Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2012. From http://en.wikipedia.org 18 Sanjay Jha (2009). BJP's double ache: election defeat and rival revival. From The Telegraph. 18 May 2009. 9
  • 20. Congress was “mystified at how the beneficiaries of the pro-poor schemes of the state government" could support any other party and could not fanthom the reasons for shift of its traditional vote bank (comprising of SCs, Christians and Muslims) to Jaganmohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.19 During the Gujarat elections of 2012, apart from the activities of local leaders of Congress, there was active campaigning by Congress president Sonia Gandhi, General Secretary of the Indian National Congress, Rahul Gandhi and the Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh who, together, effectively reflect the top leadership of the party. What is important to note, that from a practitioner’s perspective, this was the most high-powered campaign of the Congress party, going all out in Gujarat. The results with 61 candidates winning out of 176, evidently does not do justice to the efforts and resources invested by the Indian National Congress in the campaign. The results of state assembly elections of Karnataka of 2013 present a similar picture about BJP. The failure of its campaign despite the involvement of Narendra Modi who has been projected as BJP's candidate for the post of prime minister presents a disturbing picture for BJP and a morale booster for Congress. The results have also been used to pull down Narendra Modi who has often been highlighted as the BJP's candidate for the post of Prime Minister and the leader who would lead the electoral campaign as regards the general elections of 2014. As reportedly attributed to Congress leader Subodh Kant Sahay, the loss was a failure of Narendra Modi's magic,with the Gujarat Congress claiming that BJP lost those seats where Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi addressed public meetings.20 Analysis of data of last five general elections (see table 2) and recent assembly elections (see table 3) is educative. At an aggregate level national parties fared better than state level parties and registered (unrecognised) parties till 2009 general elections. Table 2: A Look at Results of General Elections21 Success ratio of different parties (%) 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009 National Parties 22.18 25.92 28.41 26.94 23.14 State Parties 16.95 21.44 21.07 19.85 37.06 Registered (Unrecognised) Parties 0.27 5.63 1.53 1.67 0.54 Independents 0.08 0.31 0.31 0.21 0.23 Total 3.89 11.43 11.68 9.99 6.73 In the 2009 general elections, at an aggregate level, the state parties had better succcess ratio as compared to national parties, which are gererally well endowned, both in terms of resources, organisation, and are graced by 19 Anti-incumbency haunts Congress. 2012. From http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com 20 Rahul above Modi in Karnataka. 09 May, 2013. From http://www.newsbullet.in 21 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in 10
  • 21. presence of leaders of stature. In the statistics, one finds further support of the idea that the elections are contested by significant parties, more as a gamble and less guided by a coherent strategy. Performance of the individual national parties in the state assembly elections of 2011 and 2012 shows how the state parties have dominated the contests. The success rate of the national parties in certain states emerges to be no better than the tens of registered (unrecognised) parties that took part in the elections and had zero success rate (see table 3). Table 3: Performance of National Parties in Recent State Assembly Elections22 Note: National Congress Party (NCP) did not contest in Tamil Nadu elections, 2011. In contrast, the performance of certain state level parties was better that national parties in states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. Even then one cannot generalise to the conclusion that state level parties will always fare better than national parties due to disconfirming evidence in the same elections. If the above data proves anything, it is probably that even leading parties, particularly the national parties, have no coherent body of knowledge that will guide them in the contests. In absence of such, the contests are contested more in the form of a speculative exercise, or in a possible best case scenario, backed by a rudimentary analysis. As an example, if one were to analyse the report about Mayawati, which highlighted Mayawati's decision of reverting back to the "winning formula" of dalit-upper caste combination and therefore nominating Brahmins (50% of candidates in the first list as reported in the article) in order to prepare for the coming 2014 general elections, along with her demand for reservation for the 22 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in 11
  • 22. economically-challenged among the upper castes, it would indicate an assumption that such a caste-based combination that had helped her earlier would hold true in the future as well.23 One might counter argue that the knowledge is present, but is not acted upon. Or, an alternate state of affairs might be that all the parties use a common body of knowledge thus levelling any advantage that might have accrued to a single party. To refute the first counter argument is quite an easy task: if it exists, then it ought to be acted upon, unless, the parties concerned have a fascination for ignoring such knowledge and chalking up losses in such high stake contests. Refutation of the second counter argument is difficult unless one has access to the decision making process of significant, if not all, political parties. But even then, the results, over a period of time, should lead to an equilibirium, in form of a stable distribution of seats among the contesting parties, absence of which indicates elsewise. Reflecting on writings of certain commentators, one would find suggestions of strategic analysis. For example, post-result analyses for the Uttar Pradesh elections 2012 put forward by Seema Mustafa have pointed out “absence of an organisation” as an important factor, along with absence of locally strong leaders.24 Publicised self-reflection of certain leaders also hint at certain variables that were ignored by them during the contests. For example, it was reported that Rahul Gandhi had identified Congress’ weak organisational structure as the primary reason for the loss suffered in UP 2012 elections.25 Therefore, in order to understand ‘campaign’ in all its complexity, we will subject it to a sustained analysis in the tradition of traditional scholars, the foundation grounded in few core principles, or axioms, and the superstructure built up brick by brick, so that a reasonably educated reader is taken step by step from simple and self-evident principles to complex and detailed analyses, while at all times assuring himself/ herself of the empirical validity of the theory by reverting to real world happenings. While expounding the principles, reference has been made to different historical events as chronicled from different information-sources. Each of these historical event, have their own detailed story, the details of which can not be captured in this small work, without making it unnecessarily gigantic. It is assumed, maybe somewhat optimistically, that the reader will be acquainted with the full details of such historical events. 23 Tapas Chakraborty (2013). Maya courts Brahmins. The Telegraph. April 19, 2013. 24 No wave at all for Rahul in UP election. From The Statesman. 21 January 2012. 25 Rahul’s campaign fails to deliver a lift for Congress. 2012. From http://www.livemint.com/ 12
  • 23. 3 Campaign ...organized effort to secure nomination and election of candidates for government offices - The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia The 2009 general election saw a battle of epic proportions - 7 national parties, 34 state parties and 323 registered (unrecognised) parties, including independent candidates as a separate category. There were 8070 contestants (1623 from national parties, 394 from state parties, 2222 from registered (unrecognised) parties along with 3831 independent), with more than 71 crore voters spread across 543 constituencies.26 It can safely be prophesied that the coming 2014 Lok Sabha elections will be of greater magnitude. Apart from the magnitude of the world’s largest democracy, elections in India are a complex phenomenon. One has multiple competing candidates with different alliances and factions, some supported by established political parties while others fight as independents or start their own parties, the different clusters in the electorate based on class, castes and sub-castes, religions etc., the supporters of different candidates, families and friends of supporters, along with government agencies who conduct the electoral process. The suppliers of different accoutrements and paraphernalia used by candidates and their supporters, the economy that produces and supplies these, the financiers of the candidates and so on, add to the intricacies of this colossal tournament. The emergence of newer technologies like Internet, with its own media and forums for interaction, and mobile telephony has brought in additional dimensions. Despite such apparent complexity in the world of elections, the contests can be made comprehensible by anchoring oneself at one point and then moving forward to explore the compexity. In the following sections, we enter this world using the contestant's world-view to guide us. Moving apart from the definition, what does a campaign signify for a contestant? Here we broad base the definition of the campaign to: a means for a candidate to communicate his/her vision and showcase his/her leaderdership and organising capabilities and strengths, relative to the competing contestants, to the electorate in order to obtain their vote. This definition provides the essential ingredients for any campaign: i. candidate ii. vision 26 Data taken from website of Election Commission of India, eci.gov.in 13
  • 24. iii. organisation iv. communication v. leadership The above constituents, which are common to what is observed in almost all organised human endeavour, will be analysed within the context of political contests. The inclusion of leadership does not mean that we fall back on the metaphysical hero-explanation, i.e., a contest’s outcomes are result of a particular candidate being the magnificent hero persona. On the contrary, it is leadership, in the fullest meaning of the word, which probably ties together the other ingredients into a multi-dimensional animated gestalt. It is this feature of gestalt that has to be borne in mind when analysing different ingredients. The configurations which forms due to the combination of different elements can be hypothesised to exhibit properties or characteristics that are not due to presence or absence of a single element, or the strength or potency of a single element alone. 14
  • 25. 4 Roles in a Campaign Every role you do is kind of a side of yourself. That's why they give you the part. - John Cusack Different labels are used in media: aspirant, contestant, or torch-bearer, while discussing campaings. For the purpose of this thesis, certain terms are adopted and clarified in terms of the roles they are required to play, so that we are consistent in our deliberations as we delve further in the subject. Spiritual-head: is identified as the central decision maker in an electoral contest, defined as the one aiming at the leadership position, either for himself (or herself) or for someone else others backed by him (or her), primarily as a mean to certain end. This necessarily implies that the spiritual- head might not be interested in holding the leadership position. The spiritual- head is akin to the torch-bearer, at the forefront of the campaign as a personification of the vision or the values for which the entire struggle is all about. The difference between the reality as it exists, and the spiritual-head’s vision of what it ought to be, is the motivational trigger for a spiritual-head embarking on this odyssey. The dissatisfaction due to the existence of this difference may be felt by a lone individual, the spiritual-head or may be a common occurence in the collective mind of the populace, which may be reaped either by one genuinely concerned or by a political entrepreneur. This vision-in-mind is distinguished from vision-espoused or communicated to the populace at large, often in form of a manifesto or in form of speeches etc. The vision-in-mind may range from redress of personal grievance or self-aggrandisement to genuine concern for the improvement of the society or a temporary focus on certain fervent issues.27 Contestant: Contrasted with the spiritual-head persona, a contestant is often the participant-apparent in the electoral process as one of the candidates for the power position, subjecting himself/herself to the electoral process.28 How does a spiritual-head differ from a contestant? This answer is based on the reasons for an individual to engage in the political process. An example would clarify the significance of the distinction adopted in this thesis. Chanakya’s extreme dissatisfaction with the prevailing status quo during the 27 Vision, a simple word, is often difficult to actualize in an impactful manner so as to capture the electorate’s imagination, while at the same time being credible and not thought of something bizarre or invented for the sole sake of elections. Some readers may be genuinely concerned about the explicit, but not advocated, difference identified in this book between the public stance and the thoughts-in-private, which would guide the spiritual-heads, being a justification of deceit. The intent is, however not so. The idea is to make the necessary distinctions between different concepts to ensure a robust foundation on which to develop the theoretical edifice. 28 For the rest of this book the terms contestant and candidate will be used synonymously. 15
  • 26. Nanda rule and the felt need for change led to his engaging in the leadership process through his protégé Chandragupta Maurya. The same phenomenon is amply manifested in political parties offering party tickets to candidates, wherein the individuals queueing up for a party ticket do not qualify to be called the spiritual-head. Similarly, when certain candidates are ordered by party-leadership to vacate a seat to accommodate other candidates, in those cases the party-leadership may be identified as the true spiritual-heads of the respective parties, while the role of different candidates in different constituencies would be nearer to that of pieces in a real-world chess game.29 Triggers The conversion of an individual into a political Spiritual-head is often triggered by intense personal experience which acts as the turning point in the life of the individual. Once might term the insult in the court of Dhana Nanda suffered by Chanakya, or in case of Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi it was racial indignities suffered by him and other fellow Indians in South Africa, or in case of Bal Thackeray it was the victimization felt at the hands of the editors of Free Press Journal in which he was employed (Purandare, 2012:2) as the turning points in their lives. This nuanced distinction not only allows us to analyse the leadership process more carefully without getting blinded by the appearance of the contestants, but also allows us to account for the facts at the ground level where different party-leaders nominate candidates in different constituencies. Example of this would be leaders of national political parties who aspire that their party should form government in different states, and hence play the role of spiritual-heads. To further their aim, they shortlist suitable individuals to contest in different constituencies, those whom we have labelled as contestants. The individual in the role of the spiritual-head is the nucleus, the heart providing the vision which motivates others to join him/her in his/her odyssey. That does not necessarily imply that the same person would be heading the campaign. The spiritual-head may be the person heading the national political party headquartered away from different constituencies, at best coming down to portray support for the local candidate. One would also be open to the possibility of the spiritual-head not visible in the entire picture, as was evidenced by the subtle absence of some of the top BJP leaders in the Gujarat 2012 elections. Such multi-layered power differences exists even during non-campaign periods. This is evident from the episode related to Uttarakhand Chief 29 It may be noted that ideal-types of Spiritual-head and candidate are theoretical constructs. In reality, there will be substantial overlap as very few candidates may be found who would willingly subordinate their personal agendas and ambitions to the vision of the Spiritual-heads. The utility of this distinction is in allowing us to understand different strategic moves better. 16
  • 27. Minister B C Khanduri in which, faced with rebellion from the state BJP unit, the chief minister went to New Delhi to 'explain his position' to the BJP leadership.30 The question of accountability helps us to acutely distinguish spiritual-head from the candidates, as a spiritual-head is accountable only to himself/ herself. The linkage between spiritual-head and contestant is hierarchical, with possibilities of multiple levels. For example Rashtriya Sangh Sevak (RSS) does not contest in elections, but it weilds significant influence over the Bhartiaya Janta Party. Therefore, one might look at the possibility of the locus of strategic-control being different from the locus of operational-control. The leadership of the BJP can, at a national level, be termed as contestant with RSS leadership as spiritual-head. Taken a level down, while RSS might give a broad agenda, it is upto to regional leaders to win in the electoral contests. Therefore one would allow a degree of ideological flexibility to even the operational leaders.31 Thus, in the Gujarat elections, Narendra Modi defined the vision in form of declaring 2012 ‘youth power year’ in Vivekananda year, along with his focus on “neo-middle class’. For candidates chosen by Narendera Modi, Narendra Modi was the spiritual- head. On the other hand, for the Congress, the dyadic combination of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi represented the spiritual-head, with Arjun Modhwadia and the other members of the state Congress team as contestants in the Gujarat elections 2012. A successful spiritual-head is like the person whose call will be responded to by the population. An example would be Anna Hazare, whose call led to support pouring in from people belonging to different walks of life at Jantar Mantar in 2012. While he has stayed away from taking part in the elections, Anna Hazare’s case probably provides a significant example in today’s times about a torch-bearer whose call is capable of rallying the public, exemplifying a standard which potential leaders should aspire to. Despite alleged praise for Narendra Modi and the controversy arising due to that, Anna Hazare’ movement against corruption was supported by Mufti Mukarram, Shahi Imam of Fatehpuri Masjid, Delhi, the Muslim Personal Law Board, the India Ulema Council, the Pasmanda Muslim Mahaj, All India Muslim Women Personal Law Board and the All India Muslim Majlish-a- Mushawarat; this was despite the statement by Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Syed Ahmed Bhukhari, that since the Anna movement had as its war cry Vande Mataram and Bharat Mata Ki Jai, the movement was against Islam and exhorted Muslims not to join the movement (Ashutosh, 2012: 123). Another example can be taken to be Mamata Banerjee during her struggle against the ruling Left Front in West Bengal. Her calls were heeded to not 30 Uttarakhand CM meets Rajnath Singh. From Times of India, Aug. 10, 2008. 31 How far the freedom is agreed upon in private can never be known, and one would have to allow for certain ambiguity regarding this if one takes into account the discussions in media. E.g., RSS's belief in swadeshi which contrasts with Narendra Modi's free economic philosophy and Narendra Modi's efforts which have cut the strings with which the RSS tried to control him have been part of media- debates. Source: Family Tales. The Telegraph. Dec. 22, 2012. 17
  • 28. only by her party members, but was actively supported in rural West Bengal (Basu, 2012). In cases where both spiritual-head and contestant are one and the same person, the postulates expounded would hold equally well. Campaigner: The person brought in to boost the probability of a party's or an individual contestant's winning the contest. Campaigners range from film stars, sports persons, to politicians who are not directly related to the elections and have participated to show their support to the party or the individual contesting the elections. A significant example would be Narendra Modi campaigning in Karnataka state elections of 2013. While in certain cases the spiritual-head, the candidate and the campaigner can be different individuals, one also witnesses situations where single individual takes multiple responsibilities. Sonia Gandhi campaigning in Gujarat, 2012 In Gujarat 2012 elections, an analysis of the role played by Sonia Gandhi wil bring home the differences between Spiritual-head and campaigner. As head of Congress, Sonia Gandhi would represent the Spiritual-head in the party, who directs the organisation based on her vision. She also represents herself in her constituency of Rae Bareilly and therefore is also a candidate, and when she campaigns on behalf of other Congress candidates, she takes on the additional role of campaigner as well. Image taken from commons depository. The success record of campaigners in terms of being able to deliver victories for candidates, other then themselves, is mixed one. Along with the history of elections of Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh etc., we now have the results of Karnataka assembly elections for analysis. The failure of Narendra Modi, who campaigned in Karnataka on behalf of BJP, to deliver a win in Karnataka assembly elections 2013, points out that campaigners may not be sufficient to obtain voters' confidence and the vote. 18
  • 29. With all these distinctions – spiritual-head, candidate, and campaigner, who actually drives a campaign? Who is the person who can lay claim credit in case of a win, or would have to accept responsibility in case of a defeat? During the campaign, to whom should the lowest party worker look up to for directions? This role is discussed in the following chapter. 19
  • 30. 5 Campaign-Leader The man who ranges in No Man's Land Is dogged by shadows on either hand - James H. Knight-Adkin The campaign-leader operates in the middle-ground, placed in between ideology of the spiritual-head and the harsh realities of the political landscape. A campaign – leader's job is the most strenuous of all the roles identified. He/she is the person who would have to be aware of the challengers, their strengths and weaknesses, the faults and shortcomings of the spiritual-head he/she campaigns for, the failings of the members of own party-members, the trade-off that goes on in different decisions at multiple levels along with the challenges to his/her own position that may come from both within and without. Without someone at the helm of affairs, the elements of the campaign will never be aligned together and is likely to operate in bits and pieces. Therefore we define this role of the campaign-leader, the equivalent of sarsenapati. The person in this role takes a panoramic view of the entire campaign, plans and guides the different individuals and every other possible resource in order to deliver a victory to his/her spiritual-head. While the spiritual-head provides the ideological underpinning to the campaign, the campaign-leader directs the campaign in terms of the strategies and tactics to the extent that, if required by the campaign-leader, the spiritual-head will be required to subordinate his/her words and deeds to the requirement of the strategy as formulated by the campaign-leader. Great thought has to be given to the person taking up the role of campaign- leader. In elections where different parties ally together, resolving the issue of campaign-leader will be of the utmost significance for the parties in the coalition. This role allow us to account for situations wherein political parties dominant in certain states, try to expand in other states, which may be either due to political entrepreneurship among certain individuals trying to leverage a party's brand in another region offering a win-win situation to the stakeholders concerned, or a conscious strategy of the political party concerned. For example, Trinamool Congress's foray into Uttar Pradesh and plans in Himachal Pradesh can be cited as examples.32 In Trinamool's case, the role of spiritual head remains with Mamata Banerjee, while that of the candidate and campaign-leader in the different states are played by the 32 TMC’s foray in UP was was led by Shyam Sundar Sharma who won the Mat constituency of Mathura in Assembly bye-election in 2012. From http://news.outlookindia.com 20
  • 31. candidates contesting as Trinamool's representative. For independent candidates, in absence of an organisation, the roles of spiritual-head, candidate, and campaign-leader may well be played out primarily by the sole individual. Does that necessarily imply that in a campaign there will always be distinct persons taking on different roles – one for being the spiritual-head, another for candidate and the third for being the campaign-leader? The answer would be: not necessarily. These conceptual distinctions are made so as to account for certain real life situations as illustrated. While, theoretically, all three – the spiritual-head, the candidate, and the campaign-leader - may be different individuals, one has to look consequences of such a situation. How would the electorate perceive such a combination where the local candidate is more like a quasi chess-piece for a distant power centre is a question that has to be thought through before embarking on such a course of action. Nitish's refusal to Modi's campaign in Bihar Much had been written about Nitish’s refusal to allow Narendra Modi from campaigning in Bihar in 2009 and 2012 general elections as evidence of 'frosty relationshsip' between them. The concept of campaign-leader allows us to re-analyse the issue in a different light, and examine as to whether such a refusal was justified or not. Nitish’s refusal prevented any possible situation where he would have been required to subordinate his campaign to the aspirations of BJP leadership, raising questions about the real-driver, the Spiritual-head as well as the campaign-leader of the campaign. The strategic significance of being the on-the- ground leader and being the campaign-leader of the campaign, as compared to out-of- context leader Narendra Modi was probably not lost on Nitish Yadav. Nitish's refusal probably avoided a muatually detrimental situation. The argument about Nitish worrying about the impact on the Muslim vote may be an additional, but is argued using the emergent theoretical concept of spiritual-head to be a secondary, factor. Mamata Banerjee’s highly publicised assertiveness in setting the trend in selection of candidates and deciding the seat sharing in West Bengal state assembly elections, 2011 can be an apt example to understand the issues being discussed in this section. If she had not done that, instead of her, the perception of the campaign-leader in the minds of the electorate could have shifted to Congress leadership at the centre. This could have led to the idea that the local issues have been subordinated to the strategic agenda of the national party. Such a shift could have been damaging to her individual candidature as well as to her party candidates. One can look back to the loss suffered by B. C. Khanduri led BJP in Uttarakhand in 2012 state elections and hypothesise about the reasons for the same. Could the subsuming the role of campaign-leader as well as that of spiritual-head in local state affairs to party leadership at the centre be one of the reasons, among the other possible reasons of internal strife in the 21
  • 32. state BJP etc., for BJP losing the favour of electorate?33 While the RSS represents the spiritual-head, the organisation providing the ideology that guides BJP, in Gujarat elections of 2012, Narendra Modi’s strong communication about his vision, and his aggressive campaigning, led to no doubts in the mind of the electorate in Gujarat about who the spiritual- head in the state was. The total control on the campaign also made him the campaign-leader of the entire campaign, keeping a tight leash on the entire campaign. Without spiritual-head and campaign-leader Lok Paritan, formed in 2006 by graduates from IIT Bombay and IIT Kanpur, attracted much attention among younger voters, especially on online forums. However the party had not been able to achieve much success in the elections. Probably one can look at the lack of a significant individual in the party, who can be identified as the spiritual-head. The lack of a powerful campaign-leader probably is probably an added compounding factor. Such may be the case with the numerous political parties which fail to make any impact on the political landscape. This concludes the section on the campaign-leader and the significance of that role in campaign. 33 Uttarakhand polls: Khanduri sweats amid rebellion, strong opponent. From The Times of India. Jan 27, 2012. 22
  • 33. 6 Candidate - Categories Science is the systematic classification of experience. - George Henry Lewes The following gives a tentative list of different categories of candidates, who enter the contest either on their own or are nominated by their respective political parties, after which. some of them mature to being spiritual-heads or campaign-leaders. 6.1 Inheritors Nothing succeeds like ones own successor. - Clarence Meredith Hincks Family names have a history of success in leading the next generation to a successful launch of political career, including guiding an individual to the Parliament, with reportedly 21 out of 30 MPs below the age of 35 coming from political families.34 The next generation is saved the trouble of starting their careers as a lowly cadre or foot-soldier, and is placed directly at the helm of affairs in a political party. The families are not also shy of modifying norms to suit their ends. As reported on the amendment of a constitutional order which stipulated that only those born on Lakshwadeep could be included in the Scheduled Tribe list, “without this amendment Delhi-born Hamdulla, son of former Union power minister P. M. Sayeed, could not contest from Lakshwadeep”. 35 Apart from the significant examples within Indian National Congress, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, and DMK in Tamil Nadu, other examples, to quote but a few, as members of parliament in 2009, are: Mausam Noor, 27, the Congress MP and grand-niece of A B A Ghani Khan Chowdhury, the MP from Malda for 26 years; Congress party's Mohammad Hamdulla Sayeed AB, son of former Union power minister P M Sayeed and Jayant Chaudhary, 30, the MP from Mathura from the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and grandson of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh and RLD chief Ajit Singh's son.36 There is no doubt, for a candidate, being in the family has lot of advantages as compared to an outsider. The previous generation’s persona gets extrapolated, other things remaining unchanged, to the next generation. Such a tentative hypothesis might explain the win of the next generation candidates like Priya Dutt, daughter of Sunil Dutt, from Mumbai North 34 In the name of the father & grandfather...May 21, 2009. Accessed from http://election.rediff.com 35 Ibid. 36 Ibid. 23
  • 34. Central, who, after her first win in 2005, won again by defeating lawyer Mahesh Jethmalani by a margin of almost 200,000 votes, for Mumbai North Central seat.37 Dynasties in Indian democracy The most famous dynasty in history of Indian democracy is the one that starts from Jawaharlal Nehru. After Nehru, the mantle of leadership passed on to Indira Gandhi, with the baton taken by Rajiv Gandhi after her assissination. After the unfortunate assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the leadership of Congress was handled by Sonai Gandhi, and now with the entry of Rahul Gandhi, we have him as the Prime Ministerial candidate for the Congress party. Among other examples of dynasties is that of the Abdullah family in Kashmir. In Tamil Nadu, we have similar examples. Apart from M. Karunanidhi who has been the mainstay of family in politics, eldest son M K Azhagiri, youngest son Stalin, daughter Kanimozhi also a Rajya Sabha MP, his grandnephew Dayanidhi Maran etc., who are all actively involved in political careers.38 The newest family that has emerged is that of Lalu Yadav who launched his sons Tej Pratap and Tejaswi into politics, with the argument that it was time to advocate the case of youth. During the launch, the presence of his daughter Misa Bharti also indicated the possible role for her in the near future.39 In certain cases, opposition obliges, knowingly or unknowingly, by putting a weak challenge. If one were to question the issue of family legacy, the constituency of Mandi (Himachal Pradesh) would probably be a good case. It was in news due to former union minister Sukh Ram who was campaigning for his son Anil Sharma [Kumar], a Congress candidate. Sukh Ram had been pleading ill health to avoid conviction in a 1996 telecom irregularities case, and was on interim bail granted by the Supreme Court as per media reports. What was also in the news, and which is relevant here is BJP's choice of candidate - D.D. Thakur, who had earlier lost two consecutive assembly elections in 2003 and 2007.40 The advantage for BJP in nominating a candidate with a history of repeated loss in the very same constituency is an interesting question for any student of politics. Similarly, the win of Abhijit Mukherjee, son of President Pranab Mukherjee, and Congress candidate in Jangipur Lok Sabha by-election and whether it was facilitated by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress abstaining, would be an interesting point to explore for students of politics.41 37 'I won the first election because of my father' - April 30, 2009. From www.rediff.com 38 Relative values: Meet India's political families, May 26, 2009. From http://ibnlive.in.com 39 Lalu Prasad launches his sons at massive anti-Nitish rally. May 16, 2013. From www.timesofindia.com 40 Ex-telecom minister campaigning for son in Himachal . From http://www.sify.com , & ANIL KUMAR, MLA MANDI, From http://www.hindustanpages.com 41 Pranab Mukherjee's son wins Jangipur by-poll by just over 2500 votes. 2012. From http://www.ndtv.com 24
  • 35. 6.1.1 Successes and failures of different generations You fail to recognize that it matters not what someone is born, but what they grow to be! -from the movie Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire However not all candidates have been able to successfully leverage their family name. The 2012 elections of Uttar Pradesh year saw two powerful families pitted against each other – Indian National Congress headed by Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party headed by Mulayam Singh and his son Akhilesh Yadav. The results hint at factors more than just the name. The same has been indicated twice in Gujarat, first in 2007 and then in 2012, wherein Rahul Gandhi participated and directed Indian National Congress's campaign without being able to dislodge BJP's hold on power. Generation Disconnect: Poster Linking Varun Gandhi to Sanjay Gandhi42 While Varun Gandhi has emerged as a leader in his own right, one can ask as to whether he has been able to achieve the stature equivalent to that possessed by his father. In cases where the win is predominantly driven by the weight of the party’s brand name and resources, rather than by the influence of the individual concerned, the advantage for a party is negligible; the party adds more value to the individual’s career rather than the other way round. This becomes even more when the glories of the previous older generation leader fade away from the memories of the population. A deciding factor leading to success of inheritors is the memory of earlier generation in the minds of the voters. An interesting comment reflecting the same, with regard to the poster reminding voters about Sanjay Gandhi, was put up on a website: www.satyameva-jayate.org: “50% of Indians who were perhaps not even born when Sanjay Gandhi died”. 42 Doosra* Sanjay Gandhi? May 26, 2010. From http://satyameva-jayate.org. Image used with permission. 25
  • 36. In the coming elections of 2014, one would find new candidates in this category. For example, the chronicle of success of Tej Pratap and Tejaswi, both sons of Lalu Prasad should be of interest to students of politics.43 6.2 Spiritual-Head's Nominee The true test of a leader is whether his followers will adhere to his cause from their own volition, enduring the most arduous hardships without being forced to do so, and remaining steadfast in the moments of greatest peril. - Xenophon Though all candidates as described in the following sections, as well as those in the inheritor category, have to be nominated or selected by the party's spiritual-heads, some candidates, in certain situations explicitly exemplify spiritual – head's choice. The same is also epitomized by extreme examples during panchayat elections, where women candidates are put up to represent their husbands. The phenomenon has been delightfully captured by journalist Seram Neken and is given in the following box. From husband to wife Forced to retreat as the constituencies get reserved for women, the men explore the feminine power from their families. "Man changes words from Love Me to Love my Wife". Ignoring their capabilities, wives, daughters, grand-daughters, daughters-in-law etc., are promoted to candidature.” 44 Women candidates represent this category most commonly. With due respect to the gender, the ladies might be elected but it seems apparently that the ‘real power’ remains with their spouses or political mentors, if the reports about them, specially within the context of panchayat elections, are true. As per reports, “...in Faizabad, legislator and national general secretary of the Samajwadi Party, Awadhesh Prasad, is reported to have managed a win for his wife Sona Devi”. Regarding the issues in the neighbouring districts of Maharjganj and Siddharhnagar, it was reported that former parliamentarian Pankaj Chaudhary had got Ujjwala Chaudhary, his mother, and Sadhana Chaudhary, his sister elected.45 43 Lalu launches his own Gen Next at rally. From The Times of India, May 16.2013. 44 VOTE FOR MY WIFE: A different facet of Women Empowerment in Manipur Panchayat Elections. 2012. From http://www.hueiyenlanpao.com 45 Women win top panchayat posts, but husbands 'rule'. 2000. From http://www.rediff.co.in 26
  • 37. 6.3 Movie Stars Holier-than-thou for the public and unholier-than-the-devil in reality. - Grace Kelly The glamour in Indian elections is primarily brought forth by the candidates who shift careers from the dream world of movies to the real world of politics. Movie stars in the south have behaved different from that of the north. In the south they have created their own parties and been the torch-bearers as well as campaign-leaders. In the north, most of the candidates – movie stars have been content to be the candidates in the elections. How have the stars fared? The answers vary, from experiences in the southern states which have had leaders like Jayalalithaa Jayaram, Karunanidhi, late M.G. Ramachandran and late N. T. Rama Rao who have risen to head state governments to situations in northern states which have seen Amitabh Bachchan, Shabana Azmi, Jaya Bachchan, Shatrughan Sinha, Sanjay Dutt etc., playing relatively minor roles. 46 NT Rama Rao : the movie star who shone bright The three biggest success stories of film stars-turned-politicians are from the south: the late N.T. Rama Rao or NTR in Andhra Pradesh and the late M.G. Ramachandran or MGR and AIADMK leader Jayaram Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu. Image taken from commons depository. This could be due to the vision, espoused by the cine stars of south as compared to those of the north, which has been strongly flavoured by regional nationalism, or a genuine concern for social causes for some, or a combination of both.47 46 In article - Southern movie stars fare better in politics.From http://www.sify.com 47 Ibid. 27
  • 38. Actors have come to represent the aspirations of their fans, and their deaths have been treated as a personal loss by their supporters, which have been followed by suicides by their followers, riots, and looting, prompting the police to resort to shoot-at-sight orders.48 The episodes following the death of MG Ramachandran in 1987, and Karnataka film star Rajkumar in 2006 may be cited as examples of hysteria which the death of movie stars have been able to generate in their supporters. What is it that movie stars have to attract the population in the southern states as compared to the northern states? Certain tentative hypotheses can be made: 1. Ability to mould the collective mind, in the absence of credible opposition, or 2. In absence of credible achievements in other spheres of public life, the ‘achievements’ in the ‘dream world are extrapolated to the real life by the population. In regions marked by governance failures movie stars offer hope to the electorate that they will live up their hero-image. As put forward by BBC respondent Damian, who had followed the campaign of Chiranjeevi in 2009 “The difference is the poor have a new hero to believe in now, the man they already idol”.49 6.4 Sports Stars I don't know anything that builds the will to win better than competitive sports. -Richard M Nixon The kind of fan following which the movie stars have is hardly matched by that of sportsperson, but they have provided valuable support to different political parties. For example, Mohammad Azharuddin joined Indian National Congress in the Indian general election, 2009 contested from Moradabad in western Uttar Pradesh,50 Kirtivardhan Bhagwat Jha Azad, who had come from a political family (his father Bhagwat Jha Azad was former Chief Minister of Bihar) went on to become a member of parliament on a Bharatiya Janata Party ticket from Darbhanga, Bihar, and was previously an MLA from Delhi's Gole Market constituency. Other significant name is Aslam Sher Khan, Indian hockey player and a former member of the Indian team which won the gold medal in 1975 World Cup. Aslam Sher Khan was Congress Member of Parliament and a Union Minister as well. In December 1997, Aslam Sher Khan joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) but resigned from the party on 27 January 1999.51 Navjot Singh Sidhu, a two time winner of 48 Why Mumbai has shut down today. 2012. From http://www.firstpost.com 49 India's film star election candidate. 23 April 2009. Video accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://news.bbc.co.uk /2/hi/south_asia/8015188.stm 50 Mohammed Azharuddin. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 51 Aslam Sher Khan. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 28
  • 39. Amritsar seat on BJP ticket would be a good example of contestant, but has been following the trend of movie stars of north, where they become members of an established party rather than starting a party from scratch.52 6.5 Philosopher Be a philosopher; but, amidst all your philosophy, be still a man. - David Hume Individuals driven primarily with a very public and passionately espoused world-view, sometimes radically distinct as compared to the existing one, tend to be in this category. They are driven by an extreme sense of dissatisfaction with the status quo and are driven to challenge and change it. Within this, we have two sub-categories: 6.5.1 Philosopher - Mentor The person who would develop a second rung of leaders to carry forth the philosophy during his/her time as well as in his/her absence. The protégés would both be encouraged and guided to go ahead and develop the party and take the necessary steps to realize the philosophy, or would in some cases be developed to take over after the demise of the leader. Kanshi Ram's name will always go together with that of his protégé Mayawati, and he would be a shining example of this category.53 6.5.2 Philosopher - Candidate This category of philosopher is more in the nature of a lone rebel with his/her band of followers. While he/she would also have his philosophy, the focus on development of protégés and of the organization is relegated to the side- lines, and the predominant focus is on the personalised philosophy driven attempts to change the status-quo. Success of such candidates is often restricted to his/her constituency as lack of leadership down the ranks and maybe of a well developed organization constricting further growth. Bal Thackeray, exemplifies the possibilities of such candidates, driven by a strong philosophy that resonates with the population, to rise in the political landscape.54 Adityanath Yogi, the parliamentarian from Gorakhpur Lok Sabha constituency may be cited here as another example.55 The success of philosophy, among other things, is dependent on to what extent the philosophy resonates with the electorate, with a narrowly defined philosophy becoming a possible constraint while a broadly defined 52 Navjot Singh Sidhu. Accessed on March 14, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 53 Mayawati. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org Interested readers are requested to refer to Behenji: A Political Biography of Mayawati by Ajoy Bose, New Delhi: Penguin Books India: 2008. 54 Bal Thackrey. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 55 Adityanath Yogi. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 29
  • 40. philosophy would allow the party more space for expansion. The shelf life of a philosophy is driven also by the breadth of the philosophy, which is assessed with respect to electorate's other dominant, but possibly unstated, expectations. An example would be the domination of Bihar by Lalu Yadav. Riding the wave of political empowerment for backward castes in Bihar, the state which had seen the exploitation of backward castes for probably the longest period after India's freedom, the shift from Lalu Yadav took place as the ideology plank was rendered hollow by the failures in governance, and lack of economic development in the state. 6.6 The Outsiders In the fell clutch of circumstance, I have not winced nor cried aloud. Under the bludgeonings of chance, My head is bloody, but unbowed. - William Ernest Henley Outsiders represent war-scarred veterans from the out-land, different domains, unsullied by any compromises made in the course of their careers. There are two categories: the first category represents individuals who have cut their teeth in politics, either as a trade union leader, as exemplified by George Fernandes, or as the case of Lalu Yadav illustrates, as a student leader. The second category represents individuals typically with government service background, their initial careers marked with dramatic challenges and successes in a world different from politics. They may enter politics either due to their dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs and would want to take responsibility to clean things up, or are co-opted by political parties looking forward to shore up their chances of winning the elections. In some cases, this move of co-option by political parties may represent the only credible way to gain rapid success, for example, for a newly formed political party. Maj. Gen. (Retd) Bhuwan Chandra Khanduri, AVSM, in Uttarakhand,56 and Dr. Ajoy Kumar, IPS in Jharkhand,57 would be cases where the political parties have leveraged on their legacy and achieved successes. Dr. Jayaprakash Narayan, IAS, in Andhra Pradesh58 would be an example where he created his own political party. In spite of having no experience in politics, the presence of Outsiders may be game changers in certain contexts. Even in circumstances where political parties may not have a distinct and credible vision to offer to electorate, the presence of Outsiders creates a powerful signal to the electorate, signifying an extrapolation of legacy of the Outsider to the party and the party leaders, or founders in case of a newly formed party. It may be noted that this is in 56 B. C. Khanduri. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 57 Ajay Kumar. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 58 Jayaprakash Narayan. Accessed on August 24, 2012 from http://en.wikipedia.org 30
  • 41. stark contrast to the case of Inheritors where the legacy of the party, party leaders or party founders is extrapolated to the Inheritors. Outsiders place themselves at significant risks when they shift to a new domain. If their statuses and accompanying apparatuses in the previous domain had contributed to their achievements, then outside that world, bereft of the power and authority, it is possible to end up like the powerful crocodile out of its element, or when unable to understand the betrayals possible in politics, to paraphrase Thomas Hardy's depiction, as biblical Samson, shorn of his locks. 6.7 Past Election Winners The past is behind, learn from it. The future is ahead, prepare for it. - Thomas S. Monson Representing individuals who have held the position of power and have had opportunity to prove their skills and abilities to the electorate. This category does not include the former players in general – those who have been in politics for long time and can be termed as old warhorses, unless they were in power positions. Based on their performance in power positions, there can be two distinct sub-categories: 6.7.1 Governance Case Studies These are those candidates who have been at a post of responsibility and authority and have created a showcase of governance, or have been able to turn around moribund situations and thus have ensured that their deeds and results they have obtained have led to a legacy difficult for electorate to ignore, and problematical for opponents to challenge or deny. 6.7.2 Governance Failures The other side of the coin is a category where individuals have created a legacy of non-performance or far-reaching failures in governance that is too durable to deny. If one were to leaf through the newspapers published during their rule the articles and comments that one would find about such candidate's tenure can be collated together to create encyclopedia-sized treatises. These candidates have managed to create the proverbial ‘new level zero’ in governance, details of which can be educative to those interested in public administration with regard to what not to do. Often they are known by names given to them by the population. For example, one feature of Gujarat's Navnirman movement of the early 1970s was the label ‘Chimanchor.’given to Chimanbhai Patel, the then chief minister,59 the label proving enough to 59 Corruption is not everyone's cause. 2012. From http://indiatoday.intoday.in 31
  • 42. effect a Congress defeat in Gujarat in 1975.60 The Story of Two Regimes The states of Bihar and West Bengal provide good examples where two different political parties have ruled. Coming to power in 1990, Lalu Prasad Yadav became an icon for the ‘oppressed,’ typically backward castes. In 1995, the Lalu’s Janata Dal split and Lalu named his party the Rashtriya Janata Dal adopting the symbol of hurricane lantern. True to his adopted symbol, RJD swept the polls with an unprecedented mandate. However the governance issues started to emerge soon after. The most famous one was the fodder scam. The enormity of the fodder scam was without precedence, with some reports mentioning siphoning of billions of dollars from the Animal Husbandry and Fodder department that was being aided by the World Bank. Apart from the corruption, Lalu's rule came to be synonymous with nepotism. His three brothers-in-law, having serious criminal charges ranging from murder to kidnapping and extortion, were made ministers. The worst case which showcased the helplessness of government machinery was perhaps the charge of the rape of an IAS officer’s wife Champa Biswas against Mritunjay Yadav, a close associate of former chief minister Laloo Prasad Yadav.61 Kidnapping became an industry, affecting people from all walks of life. Victims of kidnapping included doctors, businessmen, students, government officials etc., with episodes of kidnapping happening on almost on a daily basis plunging Bihar into total chaos and anarchy."62 Contrasted to 15 years in Bihar, in West Bengal it was a case of 34 years of Left Front's rule. During the three decades of rule, industry moved out of the state and unemployment soared. "Bengal's poor became worse off than poor folks in most other states. Healthcare and education were ruined, graft mushroomed and political violence became endemic."63 What were the charactieristics of Left Front’s strategy that maintained the grip on the voters? The article by Abheek Barman in Economic Times gives a glimpse. The "strategy of territorial control, called elaka dokhol in Bangla, was one of the Left's most potent political weapons" maintained by the armed wing of CPM; termed the harmad, it was used in battles for territory as well as to silence opposition. Apart from that CPM provided benefits for loyalists, leading to rural poor, who had to depend on government to look up to CPM. These reportedly explain why districts like Burdwan, Bankura, Purulia and Medinipur, which were poor and largely agricultural in nature, were dominated by Left Front.64 The Y2K led wave in information technology in 1990s, and the subsequent boom in IT and ITES services which happended in different parts of the country, bypassed both the states, and was a conversation topic at the street level among the unemployed. Those who could migrated out. Those who could not had to adapt and survive. Between these two extreme examples, would be candidates who have 60 BJP follows Congress path to ruin. May 10, 2013. From http://www.rediff.com 61 The Patna High Court in its order set aside the trial court order convicting the monther – son duo and acquited them, after 12 years. As per reports, the single – judge bench of Justice Mandhata Singh had found that the relationship between Champa and Mrityunjay of consensual nature. Source: 12 years on, HC relief for rape convict. May 22, 2010. Accessed on May 11, 2013 from http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-05-22/patna/28310206_1_ias-officials-champa-biswas- convict 62 Accessed on November 12, 2012 from http://www.instablogs.com/lalu-prasad-yadav-end-of-days.html 63 Left rules West Bengal for 34 years and ruins the state. 2011. From The Times of India. 64 Ibid. 32
  • 43. stayed somewhere in the middle, the perception of their work among the population will position them somewhere near to being status quo-ist. 33
  • 44. 7 Candidates' Style-scripts The beauty of a move lies not in its’appearance, but in the thought behind it. - Aaron Nimzovich While the styles of performance vary from candidate to candidate and from situation to situation, the dominant style-scripts of different candidates are briefly dwelt upon in the following sections. 7.1 The Maverick Weirdism is definitely the cornerstone of many an artists' career. - E.A. Bucchianeri The eccentric and the nonconformist individual is an interesting spectacle in often the boring world of politics. Every day electorate faces dreary media- reports about crimes, stories about corruption in high places, the abuse of power and so on. In such a world a maverick endears himself or herself to a section of population for being just that. On top of that, if he manages an enormous fund of support from that segment, he has the ability to win elections. Being a maverick is being more than eccentric in one’s behaviour and speech. The population's expectations rise due to the changing demographics, differential prosperity and opportunities, and news about developments in rest of the world. If these expectations are not heeded to by the maverick, the candidate then creates a situation where his earlier deeds and words no longer charm the audience, with the scripts appearing stale and bereft of the magic which initially endeared him/ her to the population. Among other things that will kill the initial goodwill or that adoration, are actions/ outcomes due to which the maverick ends up recognised as no different from the others, or the maverickism becoming perceived as a cloak for failures by the population. The promised utopia fails to materialise, and the harsh realities of real world erode the faith. Historically Lalu Yadav was the maverick in Indian politics. Ruling over Bihar for nearly 15 years (including those in which Rabri Devi was the Chief Minister), the initial good will was lost in the wake of scams and scandals. The lack of economic development and dearth of jobs were significant contributing factors. The external environment too made the situation worse, as people started to benchmark their own state to the other states where their friends and relatives migrated to, or they themselves were migrating to, in search of economic benefits. This failure of governance was often badly rubbed in by the treatment meted out in states like Punjab and Maharastra where people from Bihar used to migrate in search for work. The controversies created by Shiv Sena during Chath puja in Maharashtra is a 34
  • 45. case in point. 7.2 The Stoic Performer The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious. - Marcus Aurelius In contrast to a maverick, the stoic is an epitome of the dictum that emotions lead to destructive errors of judgement. In word and deed, there is a steady consistency which flows towards a larger goal, though not manifest in all its totality, to the common man. Reflective and considerate, such a candidate often ends up as the population's choice after the disappointment of a maverick's rule. Historically there have been many leaders who have been followers of stoicism, for example P. V. Narasimha Rao, about whom it was said by Natwar Singh with reference to Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru, “Nehru had a temper, PV a temperament”.65 In recent times the example of Nitish Kumar stands tall, his rule gaining “popularity due to his initiating a series of developmental and constructive activities including “building of long-delayed bridges, re-laying roads that had ceased to exist, appointing over 100,000 school teachers, ensuring that doctors worked in primary health centers, and keeping crime in check”.66 7.3 The Disciplined Party Soldier Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die. - Lord Alfred Tennyson The candidate in this cateogry, as the title suggests, presents oneself as a true follower of the party command and is best exemplified by BC Khanduri, who resigned in accord with the party-leadership wishes. However, a political leader behaving as a disciplined soldier, may not be, what the population probably expects. Such a behavior might imply to the supporters that the people who elected the candidate to power are a second priority as compared to the people in party hierarchy and their wishes. 7.4 The Constant Warrior Courage, above all things, is the first quality of a warrior. - Karl von Clausewitz Such a candidate maintains his/her touch with the electorate irrespective of the fact that he/she is in power or out of power. The constant touch is 65 P. V. Narasimha Rao. Accessed on April 2, 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org 66 Nitish Kumar. Accessed on April 2, 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org 35
  • 46. maintained by his/her focus on burning issues and getting involved with the challenges being faced by relevant sections of the electorate. For such a candidate every day brings forth new opportunities, which are weighed and acted upon to communicate to the electorate at large, as well as to showcase the vision and find flaws with the current state of affairs. Raj Thackrey’s actions would be an example which would offer us much to learn from. From organising protest against the toll charges on roads towards organising a protest towards the violence by Muslims,67 towards supporting policemen inflicted by violence,68 his personality is worthy of study by students of politics. If one were to compare it with Mamata Banerjee’s style during her struggle against the ruling Left Front, one would find certain distinctive similarities. 7.5 Pre-Election Awakening Tis the voice of the sluggard; I heard him complain, "You have wak'd me too soon, I must slumber again. - Isaac Watts The person who remains silent and wakes out of his/ her slumber at the approach of the elections is often a common phenomenon in electoral contests. Even more common are candidates, who have good intentions, but do not recognise the amount of investment required in order to be accepted by the electorates. Many candidates, both from established political parties and those fighting elections as independent candidates, would fall in this category. This concludes a tentative list of the style-scripts demonstrated by the candidates. 67 MNS rally: Raj Thackeray spread political net wider. 2012. From http://www.firstpost.com 68 Disillusioned cop gifts Raj Thackeray a rose, lands in trouble. From Mid-Day. August 22, 2012. 36