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EFOW 2018 New Energy Realities- 2018

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Workshop, lecture and closing remarks at EDI/ Nyenrode Business University Executive New Energy Realities miniMBA- 2018

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EFOW 2018 New Energy Realities- 2018

  1. 1. Founding partners Energy Architecture & UN Sustainable Development- opportunities and our personal leadership - 8 Feb 2018, Berlin- Adriaan Kamp Energy For One World MiniMBA New Energy Realities 2018
  2. 2. Adriaan Kamp 2012 - Energy For One World A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education 20 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
  3. 3. Contents of Session 1. Years 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energy Realities, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  4. 4. Global Context 1. Global Change and Geo-Politics of Emotions 2. New Energy Realities - New Era for Energy Politics (Davos WEF 2018) - New Technologies, Architectures and Market Models - Energy available, affordable and sustainable: “Free of Concerns” - www.energyandstuff.org 3. Paris Climate Change Agreement 4. UN Sustainable Development 5, Our Collective Leadership
  5. 5. The World in Year 2015 5
  6. 6. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development 1/31/2018 Clickable Video Presentation
  7. 7. Clickable Presentation
  8. 8. 2015 Year of Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development 2030 Agenda
  9. 9. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) - Paris Climate Change Agreement
  10. 10. Pope Francis and his Encyclical Laudato Si! – on Poverty, People and the Environment: Care for Creation
  11. 11. Transbiblica
  12. 12. 12
  13. 13. Living Planet Reports
  14. 14. G7 and the next 100 years
  15. 15. Club Of Rome- Graham Maxton Age of Discovery- Navigating the Risk and Rewards of our New Age Renaissance. Ian Goldin- Oxford Martin School 15
  16. 16. Year 2017 – A new styled President Trump with Executive Orders 18
  17. 17. COP23 in Bonn: Organizing for delivery of the Paris Agreement
  18. 18. COP23 in Bonn: Organizing for delivery of the Paris Agreement (2) : “Between Hope and Despair” 20
  19. 19. UNFCCC report on Climate Risks 22
  20. 20. IEA’s year 2017 analysis of how renewables are growing
  21. 21. Year 2040 Expectations vs. Goals IEA WEO2017 (and international Oil & Gas community) 80 : 20 UN FCCC (& Science Community) 20 : 80
  22. 22. 25
  23. 23. The State of our UN SDGs (2017)
  24. 24. 2017 IMF Economic Global Growth Forecast: “All Time High”
  25. 25. Year 2017 in 12 Charts (World Bank) 29
  26. 26. Technology Revolution vs Jobs and Social justice 4th Industrial Revolution ILO 2017: World Jobless
  27. 27. 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer 31
  28. 28. Ocean Plastic Clean-Up 32
  29. 29. SG Guterres: RED Alert and 12 points
  30. 30. WEF 2018: Global Risk Report 34
  31. 31. Great Power competition: “Great Fences makes Good Neigbours” 35
  32. 32. Davos 2018- “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World” • The global context today has changed dramatically: geostrategic fractures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging political, economic and social consequences. • “Our collective inability to secure inclusive growth and preserve our scarce resources puts multiple global systems at risk simultaneously. Our first response must be to develop new models for cooperation that are not based on narrow interests but on the destiny of humanity as a whole," said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum. 36
  33. 33. WEF Davos: New Era in Energy Politics 37
  34. 34. America First State of the Union and a Dinner Table 38
  35. 35. Founding partners 31.01.2018 Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments • Economic and finance system change and fundamentals • A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution. • Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations • Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for social wealth & justice • Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities • Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets Global Change
  36. 36. 40 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day (15 TW) 500- 750 million oil eq/day (55 TW) 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
  37. 37. BRIC: It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of our people You’ll fix whatever you want to fix! The West: “If you do as I have done it will be a mess.” Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation, people and planet Emerging: Will there be enough for us? Can i afford it? Who will deliver it to me? The poor: When will we see electricity and get mobility? Opec and GasPec: You need us! We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about Availability and climate change?
  38. 38. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
  39. 39. Pathways
  40. 40. BP Energy Outlook - 2017
  41. 41. 2017- BP Energy Outlook 45
  42. 42. BP Energy Outlook 2035 1/31/2018
  43. 43. BP Energy Statistics 2016
  44. 44. Exxon Mobile Analytical View of the World 48
  45. 45. www.energyandstuff.org 49 Clickable Go to Website
  46. 46. Contents of Session 1. Years 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energies Realities, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  47. 47. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
  48. 48. Sustainable Community Building
  49. 49. The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada The top 10 cities by population: 1. Tokyo, (34 million) 2. Seoul (24.4 million) 3. Guangzhou (24.2 million) 4. Mexico City (23.4 million) 5. Delhi (23.2 million) 6. Mumbai (22.8 million) 7. New York (22.2 million) 8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million) 9. Manila (19.6 million) 10. Shanghai (19.4 million) All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
  50. 50. Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions Mainstream • UN Re-organisation (0) • Governments (1) • Corporates and Global Compact (2a) • Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b) • New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3) • Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up • Community, Start-up Community (5)
  51. 51. Some Regional Development Examples (as it is today)
  52. 52. Energy in the Netherlands • What to do after Groningen Gas / Energy Transition Accord- I ? • What to to after Pernis? • Electrification of Homes, Cars, Transport and Cities • Greening of intensive energy Industries-, Agri-, Petro-; • Regional Energy Markets • What new export markets can we create?
  53. 53. A New Green Plan- NW Europe
  54. 54. “Holland”- in and between Germany, UK, France and ScandinaviA
  55. 55. New Start-up valleys focussing on “Doing Good”, whilst earning “Good”
  56. 56. Education – Community Development (Bottoms-Up)
  57. 57. 70
  58. 58. Better Business- Better World 71
  59. 59. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs 72
  60. 60. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs (2) 73
  61. 61. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs (3) 74
  62. 62. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs (4) 75
  63. 63. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
  64. 64. Some Examples- from our Energy Sector (as it is today)
  65. 65. Focus Areas (Energy Sector) (Year 2018 and beyond- example only) Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon in the Atmosphere Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and Mobility- Energy Architectures Energy Architecture Developments, Economies and UN SDGs GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy to All” or “Energy-Economies Free of Concerns” Change & Transformation
  66. 66. Old and New Clickable Presentations Vs 350 Bn USD investment
  67. 67. Click to Go To Website Germany: An example how it works- in real
  68. 68. Example Shell: “A decisive step to a cleaner energy future” Royal Dutch Shell pledged to double its investment in renewable fuels and to cut its carbon emissions in half by 2050. • In comments to investors, Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said that from 2018 to 2020, the company’s new-energies division would spend up to $2 billion a year on renewable energy sources like wind, solar and hydrogen power and on electric-car charging stations. • Mr. van Beurden stressed that the pledge was just a start and that the company supported the goal of the Paris accord, which is to keep global temperatures 81 It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in the transition to a lower-carbon world. This is how I plan to drive change through the company.- 8 December 2017
  69. 69. Example Shell (2): “A decisive step to a cleaner energy future” Into the 2020s, however, we plan a greater focus on revenue streams that will be less constrained by policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including petrochemicals and electricity. Shell has made a series of moves in recent months to strengthen its position in the power industry, with deals to buy Texas electricity group MP2, electric vehicle charging company NewMotion, and UK energy retailer First Utility. “If you fast forward with another twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, the power segment is going to be a very dominant part of the total energy system,” Mr van Beurden said. “At the moment it’s only 18 per cent but it will be more than 50 by the time this century is over. So we cannot pass up on that opportunity.” 82 It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in the transition to a lower-carbon world. This is how I plan to drive change through the company.- 8 December 2017
  70. 70. Example Shell (3): “A decisive step to a cleaner energy future”
  71. 71. With a large range of global/ european utility, transport, service and industry partners..?
  72. 72. New Possibility Thinking (1)- Mission Innovation
  73. 73. New Possibility Thinking (3)- Largest Solar Farm (First Solar) 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
  74. 74. New Possibility Thinking (4)- Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s 4 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million homes
  75. 75. New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility
  76. 76. New Possibility Thinking (6)- Solar City- A New Value Proposition
  77. 77. New Possibility Thinking (7)- Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future. (Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self- driving and navigating new car concepts)
  78. 78. Uber Google
  79. 79. Tony Seba- RethinkX (TaaS) study on personal mobility 92 TaaS= Transport as a Service
  80. 80. But with a possible rare earth metal (mining) scarcity.. Cobalt 93
  81. 81. New Possibility Thinking(8) Smart Cities The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000 Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities: • C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India • King Abdullah + Economic Cities Saudi Arabia • e.g. China Tianjin Development •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities •King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
  82. 82. New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more 1/31/2018
  83. 83. New Possibility Thinking (10) RE-100 Group
  84. 84. New Possibility Thinking (11) Energy Project Finance
  85. 85. New Possibility Thinking (12) Finance, Banks and Insurers
  86. 86. We are here- so mind the gap !
  87. 87. IRENA’s 2017 Annual Renewable Capacity Statistics 100 2008 1 TW 2016 2 TW
  88. 88. Roughly Equals Present Oil & Gas Company Jobs
  89. 89. Clean-Tech/ Renewables Oil & Gas
  90. 90. The Present Big Elephant in the Room: “The Prize of Oil”
  91. 91. The Context We see Ourselves in
  92. 92. A little conceptual.. (adding it all together)
  93. 93. 108
  94. 94. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio- political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 109 Energy Architecture
  95. 95. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation” Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re- designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil 1 2 3 4 5
  96. 96. Levels of Change • Level 1 • Level 2 • Level 3 • Level 4 • Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying • Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures • Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio- economic and corporate business models- also in international trade • Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
  97. 97. The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1) • OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia • (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec • China Inc., India Inc. • Developing (without Resources) • Developing (with Resources) • Least developed. Poor.
  98. 98. The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
  99. 99. Mainstream • Governments (1) • Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2) • New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3) • Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up • Community, Start-up Community (5) The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
  100. 100. The way it works (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination “Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works 116 e.g. Country Catogories, Geographies & Markets Business Formula- and Cross-Sectors Forms of Collaboration
  101. 101. Responsible sector leadership (example only) category score Excel, expand and maintain Reserves, Operating Envelopes and Production Performances Be a Leaders within the Sector- On Economic Rentability (over time), Sustainability and Outlook of the whole and the aggregate in the sector Act as a Steward over the developments in the whole energy value chains Integrate Sustainable Development in the Business Model of Resource Exploitation Actively support the transition from fossil fuels consumption in our cars, homes and service sectors
  102. 102. Clickable Access to Report
  103. 103. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs 120
  104. 104. 197 countries need to change
  105. 105. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, -2015 Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015 123
  106. 106. A New Business Worthiness Pledge The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end poverty, combat climate change and fight injustice and inequality. By applying innovation, resources and expertise, I will pursue the business opportunities inherent in building greener, more equitable and inclusive societies I am a business leader who knows that business cannot succeed in societies that fail. I will do my utmost to be business worthy in all my efforts, and true to my business to support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. I call on my peers to do the same.
  107. 107. SG Guterres on 16 January 2018…
  108. 108. Building New Bridges
  109. 109. Contents of Session 1. Year 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energies Realities Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  110. 110. One World. Many Needs. Many Views
  111. 111. Founding partners “In Leadership- we are all students for life” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  112. 112. Leadership Levels • Managing Yourself • Managing Others • Managing complex change & • Managing multi-stakeholders
  113. 113. Managing yourself Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  114. 114. Founding partners “Only good can come from good” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  115. 115. How much do you know about (your) self? Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  116. 116. What happy people know Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  117. 117. Conquering the self Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  118. 118. 136
  119. 119. Managing others Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  120. 120. Founding partners “Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself” (golden rule) Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  121. 121. Organizing people 1/31/2018
  122. 122. Leadership and Vision: Opportunity Framing and Decision Based Delivery •The possibility for Value Creation is largest in the Early Stages of any opportunity How good is your Opportunity Framing ? Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  123. 123. Ram Charan- Execute Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  124. 124. Rex Tillerson (“Hi- I am the New Guy”) Plain Leadership talk – at US State Department Accountability Honesty Respect One TEAM, One Mission
  125. 125. Rex Tillerson Plain Leadership talk – at US State Department (part 2) 144 System Rethink World View Re-Organisation Approach Unconstrained Re-think Respect to Staff
  126. 126. Good is the enemy of Great
  127. 127. From Good to Great Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  128. 128. Servant Leadership • Compassionate love • Authenticity • Humbleness • Empowerment • Provide direction • Stewardship Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
  129. 129. Pope Francis and Laudato Si!
  130. 130. Managing complex change/ multi-stakeholders Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  131. 131. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved “Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
  132. 132. Kotter on Change and Organizations for Change
  133. 133. Can We Listen before Change?
  134. 134. Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works Energy For One World- 2017, All Rights Reserved
  135. 135. Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The way it works 154 The Way it Works for a System Rethink World View Cultures Institutions Our Leadership Ways
  136. 136. Core Values Cultural Dimensions Global People Skills CONSCIOUS UNCONSCIOUS
  137. 137. 156 1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of Globalization (2016) 2. Sustainable Humanity (2012) 3. We can no longer manage decency (2018) “Leading Global Decency”
  138. 138. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership. – Energy For One World - Mail Address: p/a Adriaan Kamp (Founder), Dirk Hoogenraadstraat 152A, 2586 TN The Hague, The Netherlands. Skype: Adriaan.Kamp Direct line (Netherlands): 0031-614939194 adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com (director)
  139. 139. Foundation & Regional Delivery Platforms- EFOW Organizational Change and Demonstrator Proposals Global Change Energy Architecture - Economy - Environment - Society UN Sustainable Development & Paris Agreement Outreach ---- Consultancy--- Delivery Programs
  140. 140. Attachments 160
  141. 141. Eco- Conscious  Moderated Consumerism  Limits to Growth  Cradle-to-Cradle, Bio-Mimicry  Zero emissions Nature First
  142. 142. Networked Society  Away with traditional country and/or corporate borders : City-Hubs.  Horizontal, cross-border collaborations  Cultural awareness and tolerance Power to the People
  143. 143.  Expansion of wealth, ownership and new growth  Continued Consumerism and Hedonistic life-styles.  Short-termism, Schumpeter, Ayn Rand, Resilience  A world of larger inequalities and divisions:  Rich and poor. Have’s and Have Not’s Money First Shared Capitalis m
  144. 144.  A world of Power , Principles and Politics  Polarisation between Beliefs and/or Power Blocks  The Geo-politics of Emotions Power to the Strongest, First Darwin
  145. 145. Techno Modernity  The world of Prof. Michio Kaku and  Kurz Weill Singularity  Game-changers and Disruptive Innovations  A world of Smart Cities, New Surprises , The Rule of Science & Technology
  146. 146.  Conscious Capitalism  The rise of new (global and business) leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s  Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality  Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set. Transformative leadership Conscious Humanity
  147. 147. 176
  148. 148. Roadmap UN SDG7 - Energy To All 178
  149. 149. No Jobs Plans DubaiUnderstanding our Ways

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