2. Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World (2012- Present)
A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy
Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership
Education
20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5
Countries and EPHQ).
3. 3
2021
2030-2050
7.9 Billion
People
10 Billion
People
100 trillion
USD
economy
180-210
trillion USD
225 million
oil eq/day
(15 TW)
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
(55 TW)
414 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 1.5 degrees/ 21st
century
??? ppm CO2 and
Climate Change Effects
10. COP26, Boris Johnson (ala James Bond), Sir David
Attenborough and a Single Number 414
11.
12. COP26 Optimism, New Initiatives and Breakthroughs
Stop Deforestation 2030
Methane Emission Reductions 30% 2030
Clean Technology Initiative
FGANZ- 130 trillion USD in asset finance
First Movers Coalition/ Breakthrough Catalysts
End Fossil Fuel (Coal) Investments/ Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance
Phasing-out the Combustion engine for LCVs
UK-India New Grid Initiative
UK-SouthAfrica New Power Initiative
UK - ESA space Agency Climate Change Research
Scotland Loss and Damage Fund
Etc etc
14. “On the back of an envelope”- 130 trillion USD
130 trillion over 30 years, is about
4 trillion per year.
Will that work?
Let me give you some hints:
First of all,
Today, our world energy system has a working capacity of about 15-20 TW,
and that equals 15- 20 Trillion USD in assets.
Presently, every year, the world needs approximately 300-400 Bn
USD/annum to counter depletion, allow for growth and maintain or keep the
oil and gas flowing.
Over coming decades our world energy system is expected to double: to at
least 40-50 TW is thus 40-50 Trillion USD in assets.
So spending 4 trillion USD per annum (on energy system), in a present world
economy of 100 trillion USD) looks like (more than) enough to see the job
gets done (ie invest in existing and new infrastructures transition)
Now and But, :
We, OECD, have today nor the capacity, nor the capabilities(manufacturing,
value chains) nor the skills (program management, engineers, construction
people), nor the socio-economic and political system to make these transition
spending programs at home, or abroad.
And: We need “to drive” our present incumbent energy corporations to change
this, scale-up and step-up.
And as a Swedish Foreign Investment Manager noted: It is not about the
money or on paper. This is about the real physical world: we find it difficult to
create bankable projects in a messy world, abroad. Collectively, we are invited
to become much better in project framing and de-risking- and realize beyond
our imagination.
The US-China co-operation and Boris Johnson New Grid Initiative
(with India) - can be the Kick-starter to see this going- and free-up
this dream of making Energy Free of Concerns.
22. What “Power” comes out of your “Socket” ?
As Black as Black
can be
(Coal, Dirt, Unfair),
And
Unreliable
Affordable, Nor
Sustainable
Grey
Gas Powered
Imported LNG Gas, with
ETS Offsets/ Nature
Based Solutions.
Available, Costly
(but not 100%
Sustainable)
Local Utility Scaled
Renewables Plus Gas/
CCUS
Plus
ETS/ Nature Based
Solutions
With market rivalries, profit
seeking and competitions
Available?, Affordable?
(and not 100% sustainable)
Regional Utility
Scaled Renewables
(Super Grid) Plus
Local mini-grids and
Zero-Plus Home
(and sustainable,
circular economy
value chains)
(Energy Free of
Concerns)
23. 1 Energy is a system- behind every button, switch
and fuel pump is a myriad of connections.
2. Energy Transition is a Process, not a destination
and it cannot be delivered all in one go.
3. Diversity in energy systems is increasing in the
broadest sense- geographies, technologies, skills,
and cultures
4. The Future of Energy cannot be predicted, but
better energy futures can be co-created if we avoid
fear , and open-up to new and progressive bridges
and pathways
5. Energy Technology Transition always involves
societal disruption and transformation
1. Rebalancing act between our Engineered World
with that of Nature.
2. Rebalancing act between ourselves- Rich- Poor,
North-South, East-West, Have and Have nots.
3. It is about the Climate AND it is about the UN
SDGs
4. It is about making new Energy-Economies
Architectures: Sustainable, Inclusive and Free
of Concerns. Here and There. Now and
Tomorrow
5. It is about Responsible, Decent and Servant
Leadership
WEC 100 years lessons on Energy
Transitions
EFOW 10 years lessons with Energy
Transition
( e.g. 99 Theses to Build Back Better)
WEC : World Energy Council led by Dr Angela Wilkinson
24. War in Ukraine : The Great De-coupling
Extension of Coal Licenses, Imports of new LNG, Energy Saving
Measures, Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
Rationing of Gas Consumption, Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers, Oil Reserves, Scouting for
New Safe Resource Basins, including New Fracking, Accelerating
Transitions,
25. War in Ukraine,
in the “ Year of the Tiger” :
A rare combination of Geo-political interests- , international
security- and global system fault lines that collide:
“ A perfect storm” .
(“ Democracy vs Autocracy”
1. Energy, Energy System and Commodity
Prices, and Access Uncertainties: The
Great-Decoupling
2. De-coupling and glocalisation of Global Value
Chains: Geo-politics, Security, post-Covid,
3. Inflation, Debts, Economic Risks and Stability
International Finance System (risks,
uncertainties)
4. Food, Energy and Finance Insecurities in
Developing and Developed Nations: Rise of
Poverties
5. Nature Agenda, Nature Crisis
6. US/ Western Political System- US Elections,
Western Re-actions, Chaos vs Order.
XiJinping re-election (“ Year of the Tiger”)
26. War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (1)
Closing the Ranks: If…then…Me, We, They,
Them and The Others…
….Are we truly “ in control” ?
Extension of Coal Licenses,
Imports of new LNG to Europe from US, Qatar
Energy Saving Measures,
Sanctioning of Russia Economy and Oil and Gas imports,
(Western Companies sanctionting or exiting Russian Assets
and Market)
Rationing of Gas Consumption,
Doubling of Renewables Capacities,
Subsidizing of Energy Bills to the Consumers,
Access to Oil Reserves,
Scouting for New Safe Resource Basins, including New
Fracking,
Accelerating Transitions, etc. etc.
27. War in Ukraine
Impact on Energy and Sustainability : “The Great De-coupling” (2)
"In uncertain times, one of bp's primary roles
is to maintain the safe, secure supply of the
energy on which societies depend. The
importance of that role has rarely been
clearer than in recent weeks."
Helge Lund, chair
28. The remorse and lessons of George Verberg (79)-
The Dutchman who negotiated and signed the Gas Agreements with
Russia
Source: Interview Volkskrant, 15 April 2022
● Miscalculation of Putin and Putin Plans
● Groningen Gas, Safety and Earthquakes
● Gas as a Transition Fuel, in the Paris
Agreement
● The neo-liberal free market, the short-term
opportunism and free rides, and the lack of
long-term assurance of energy to homes and
markets
35. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership.
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp (Founder)
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
TelCall Direct line (Netherlands):
0031-614939194
E-Mail:
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com
www.EnergyForOneWorld.com