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EDI Lecture: Energy Architecture & UN SDGs: Leading Innovation and Change


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workshop/lecture : Executive Programme Energy transition and innnovation class in Aachen 29 May 2018

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EDI Lecture: Energy Architecture & UN SDGs: Leading Innovation and Change

  1. 1. Founding partners Energy Architecture & UN Sustainable Development- opportunities and our leadership over change - 29 May 2018, Aachen- Adriaan Kamp Energy For One World Executive Programme Energy Transition & Innovation 2018
  2. 2. Adriaan Kamp 2012 - Energy For One World A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Leadership. Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership Education 20 years Industry/Shell International : Upstream ( 5 Countries and HQ).
  3. 3. Contents of Session 1. Years 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energy Realities, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves for Success: Innovation and Change 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  4. 4. Global Context 1. Global Change and Geo-Politics of Emotions 2. New Energy Realities - New Era for Energy Politics (Davos WEF 2018) - New Technologies, Architectures and Market Models - Energy available, affordable and sustainable: “Free of Concerns” - 3. Paris Climate Change Agreement 4. UN Sustainable Development 5, Our Collective Leadership
  5. 5. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development 5/27/2018 Clickable Video Presentation
  6. 6. Clickable Presentation
  7. 7. 2015 Year of Energy, Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development 2030 Agenda
  8. 8. UN FCCC COP21 Paris (3) - Paris Climate Change Agreement
  9. 9. Pope Francis and his Encyclical Laudato Si! – on Poverty, People and the Environment: Care for Creation
  10. 10. Transbiblica
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. Living Planet Reports
  13. 13. Club Of Rome- 50 years: Book Launch: Come on! Short-termism, Population and the Destruction of the Planet Ernst von Weizsacker/ Anders Wijkman Age of Discovery- Navigating the Risk and Rewards of our New Age Renaissance. Ian Goldin- Oxford Martin School 13
  14. 14. Year 2017 – A new styled President Trump with Executive Orders 16
  15. 15. COP23 in Bonn: Organizing for delivery of the Paris Agreement
  16. 16. COP23 in Bonn: Organizing for delivery of the Paris Agreement (2) : “Between Hope and Despair” 18
  17. 17. UNFCCC report on Climate Risks 20
  18. 18. IEA’s year 2017 analysis of how renewables are growing
  19. 19. Year 2040 Expectations vs. Goals IEA WEO2017 (and international Oil & Gas community) 80 : 20 UN FCCC (& Science Community) 20 : 80
  20. 20. 23
  21. 21. The State of our UN SDGs (2017)
  22. 22. 2017 IMF Economic Global Growth Forecast: “All Time High”
  23. 23. Davos 2018- “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World” • The global context today has changed dramatically: geostrategic fractures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging political, economic and social consequences. • “Our collective inability to secure inclusive growth and preserve our scarce resources puts multiple global systems at risk simultaneously. Our first response must be to develop new models for cooperation that are not based on narrow interests but on the destiny of humanity as a whole," said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum. 27
  24. 24. Ocean Plastic Clean-Up 28
  25. 25. WEF Davos: New Era in Energy Politics 29
  26. 26. Founding partners 27.05.2018 Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments • Economic and finance system change and fundamentals • A new technological era: 4th Industrial Revolution. • Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations • Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for social wealth & justice • Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities • Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets Global Change
  27. 27. 31 2014 2030-2050 7 Billion People 9 Billion People 90 trillion USD economy 180-210 trillion USD 225 million oil eq/day (15 TW) 500- 750 million oil eq/day (55 TW) 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century ??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
  28. 28. BRIC: It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of our people You’ll fix whatever you want to fix! The West: “If you do as I have done it will be a mess.” Let us all change- rapidly Let’s secure our nation, people and planet Emerging: Will there be enough for us? Can i afford it? Who will deliver it to me? The poor: When will we see electricity and get mobility? Opec and GasPec: You need us! We can deliver your needs! What is all that fuzz about Availability and climate change?
  29. 29. 2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
  30. 30. Pathways
  31. 31. Between Oceans and Mountains: There is a Sky! • The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Sky builds on previous Shell scenarios publications and is our most optimistic scenario in terms of climate outcomes. • A new energy system is emerging. The Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address. By 2070 there is the potential for a very different energy system to emerge. • The Sky Scenario outlines what we believe to be a technologically, industrially, and economically possible route forward, consistent with limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre- industrial levels. It reveals the potential for an energy system to emerge that brings modern energy to all in the world, without delivering a climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to. • Sky shows a transformation to a lower-carbon energy system, with the world achieving the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Consumers, companies and governments will face tough choices and the paths towards lower-carbon energy will vary by country and sector. Over the course of 50 years, it transforms the way society uses and produces energy. • But while encouraging news, success towards the Paris Agreement aim is not guaranteed. The Sky Scenario relies on a complex combination of mutually reinforcing actions by society, markets and governments. It recognises that the necessary changes will unfold at different paces in different places, and must ultimately transform all sectors of economic activity. The changes are economy-wide, sector-specific, and amount to re-wiring the global economy in just 50 years. 35
  32. 32. BP Energy Outlook - 2017
  33. 33. BP Energy Outlook 2035 5/27/2018
  34. 34. Exxon Mobile Analytical View of the World 38
  35. 35. 39 Clickable Go to Website
  36. 36. Contents of Session 1. Years 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energies Realities, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves for Success: Innovation and Change 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  37. 37. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
  38. 38. Sustainable Community Building
  39. 39. The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCities and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada The top 10 cities by population: 1. Tokyo, (34 million) 2. Seoul (24.4 million) 3. Guangzhou (24.2 million) 4. Mexico City (23.4 million) 5. Delhi (23.2 million) 6. Mumbai (22.8 million) 7. New York (22.2 million) 8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million) 9. Manila (19.6 million) 10. Shanghai (19.4 million) All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
  40. 40. Organizing ourselves: “zippered”- in dimensions Mainstream • UN Re-organisation (0) • Governments (1) • Corporates and Global Compact (2a) • Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b) • New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3) • Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up • Community, Start-up Community (5)
  41. 41. Some Regional Development Examples (as it is today)
  42. 42. Click to Go To Website Germany: An example how it works- in real
  43. 43. Energy in the Netherlands • RutteIII • What to do after “Groningen Gas (21/12 Bcm) & New Energy Transition (Climate) Accord- II ? • What to do with/after Pernis? • Electrification of Homes, Cars, Transport and Cities • Greening of intensive energy Industries-, Agri-, Petro-; • Regional Energy Markets • What new export markets can we create?
  44. 44. Energy in the Netherlands (2) The challenge we are facing now is a triple national budget and investment challenge: • 1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen Gas. The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125 Billion Euro. • 2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as "bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas. • 3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification, the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to meet Paris [1] 54
  45. 45. 55
  46. 46. A New Green Plan- NW Europe
  47. 47. “Holland”- in and between Germany, UK, France and ScandinaviA
  48. 48. New Start-up valleys focussing on “Doing Good”, whilst earning “Good”
  49. 49. 61
  50. 50. Better Business- Better World 62
  51. 51. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs 63
  52. 52. UN Regional Blocks Countries Cities Communities Companies and Institutes Co-alitions of the Willing
  53. 53. Some Examples- from our Energy Sector (as it is today)
  54. 54. Focus Areas (Energy Sector) (Year 2018 and beyond- example only) Oil& Petrochemicals – Plastics in the Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon in the Atmosphere Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and Mobility- Energy Architectures Energy Architecture Developments, Economies and UN SDGs GeoPolitics, Free trade and “Energy to All” or “Energy-Economies Free of Concerns” Change & Transformation
  55. 55. Old and New Clickable Presentations Vs 350 Bn USD investment
  56. 56. 68
  57. 57. Statoil: Equinor 69
  58. 58. Example Shell: “A decisive step to a cleaner energy future” Royal Dutch Shell pledged to double its investment in renewable fuels and to cut its carbon emissions in half by 2050. • In comments to investors, Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said that from 2018 to 2020, the company’s new-energies division would spend up to $2 billion a year on renewable energy sources like wind, solar and hydrogen power and on electric-car charging stations. • Mr. van Beurden stressed that the pledge was just a start and that the company supported the goal of the Paris accord, which is to keep global temperatures 70 It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in the transition to a lower-carbon world. This is how I plan to drive change through the company.- 8 December 2017
  59. 59. Example Shell (2): “A decisive step to a cleaner energy future” Into the 2020s, however, we plan a greater focus on revenue streams that will be less constrained by policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including petrochemicals and electricity. Shell has made a series of moves in recent months to strengthen its position in the power industry, with deals to buy Texas electricity group MP2, electric vehicle charging company NewMotion, and UK energy retailer First Utility. “If you fast forward with another twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, the power segment is going to be a very dominant part of the total energy system,” Mr van Beurden said. “At the moment it’s only 18 per cent but it will be more than 50 by the time this century is over. So we cannot pass up on that opportunity.” 71 It’s time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in the transition to a lower-carbon world. This is how I plan to drive change through the company.- 8 December 2017
  60. 60. Shell 72
  61. 61. Shell (2):2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year. • The European Cleantech Corporation of the Year award exists to recognize “a major European enterprise whose activities, actions and consistent support over multiple years have significantly contributed to the growth of cleantech innovation, and/or demand for cleaner products and services, and who has made some particularly noteworthy actions over the last 12 months.” • The 2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year was awarded to Shell. The following three reasons are why Shell stood out for this award: • 1. The sense of a new level of commitment and action, with which Shell is gripping the challenges of the huge and disruptive transitions ongoing in the world of energy and transportation, and the urgency with which it has been making strategic moves. • 2. The range of actions it has been taking. A few examples to illustrate include: • a. New Energy Solutions. Capital commitments of on average $1-2bn per annum behind this relatively new initiative (launched in May 2016) represents a significant commitment by Shell to transforming its own business model. • b. Commitments to lower carbon. Shell announced plans in Nov 2017 to cut the net carbon footprint of its energy products by around half by 2050, with an interim step of 20% by 2035 in line with society. • c. Acquisitions. There have been a number, but most striking are MP2 Energy and First Utility, for example, that set out Shell’s clear strategic intent to become a player in the electricity markets of the future. • d. Shell Ventures, Springboard and other initiatives and their work with the global innovation ecosystem and entrepreneurs, shaping the future industrial world. • e. A global player. We have seen deals across the map, geographically and in terms of the different dynamics on energy’s future – from renewables to EV charging, from mobility services to energy access. • f. Working in partnership with peers. Shell is one of the founding members of OGCI (Oil & Gas Climate Initiative), the cross-industry effort to de-carbonise the oil & gas industry. • 3. The actions and transactions levels have noticeably increased over the last 12 months. • a. Shell has been the most active European-based CVC across the energy and industrial innovation themes we cover. Deals have included Axiom Energy, Husk Power, HyET, Innowatts, Steamaco, and Sunseap. • b. Shell has been an active acquirer. Examples over the period include: • i. The significant stake acquired in the US solar developer, Silicon Ranch Corporation (Jan 2018) ii. The entry into the UK retail market via the acquisition of First Utility (Dec 2017) iii. The acquisition of the Dutch venture-backed company, NewMotion, the pan-European network of electric vehicle charging stations (Oct 2017) iv. The acquisition of Texas-based MP2 Energy, a leader in Demand Response Solutions (formally closed in September 2017) 73
  62. 62. New Possibility Thinking (1)- Mission Innovation
  63. 63. 75
  64. 64. New Possibility Thinking (3)- Largest Solar Farm (First Solar) 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr 3500 hectares 160,000 homes 1,5 Bn USD 550 MW 8 million panels
  65. 65. New Possibility Thinking (4)- Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s 4 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr An offshore area of 100km2 175 wind turbines Two offshore substations Nearly 450km of offshore cabling One onshore substation 630MW of electricity Enough power for nearly half a million homes
  66. 66. New Possibility Thinking (5): New distributed utility
  67. 67. New Possibility Thinking (6)- Solar City- A New Value Proposition
  68. 68. New Possibility Thinking (7)- Car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation. It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future. (Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self- driving and navigating new car concepts)
  69. 69. Uber Google
  70. 70. Tony Seba- RethinkX (TaaS) study on personal mobility 82 TaaS= Transport as a Service
  71. 71. But with a possible rare earth metal (mining) scarcity.. Cobalt 83
  72. 72. New Possibility Thinking(8) Smart Cities The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000 Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities: • C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India • King Abdullah + Economic Cities Saudi Arabia • e.g. China Tianjin Development •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities •King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
  73. 73. New Possibility Thinking (9) Better Architecture- Zero, Zero-Plus and more 5/27/2018
  74. 74. 86
  75. 75. New Possibility Thinking (11) Energy Project Finance
  76. 76. New Possibility Thinking (12) Finance, Banks and Insurers
  77. 77. We are here- so mind the gap !
  78. 78. IRENA’s 2017 Annual Renewable Capacity Statistics 90 2008 1 TW 2016 2 TW
  79. 79. Roughly Equals Present Oil & Gas Company Jobs
  80. 80. Clean-Tech/ Renewables Oil & Gas
  81. 81. The Present Big Elephant in the Room: “The Prize of Oil”
  82. 82. The Context We see Ourselves in
  83. 83. Responsible sector leadership (example only) category score Excel, expand and maintain Reserves, Operating Envelopes and Production Performances Be a Leaders within the Sector- On Economic Rentability (over time), Sustainability and Outlook of the whole and the aggregate in the sector Act as a Steward over the developments in the whole energy value chains Integrate Sustainable Development in the Business Model of Resource Exploitation Actively support the transition from fossil fuels consumption in our cars, homes and service sectors
  84. 84. Clickable Access to Report
  85. 85. BluePrint For Business Leadership on the SDGs 100
  86. 86. 197 countries need to change
  87. 87. “Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to all”.- Adriaan Kamp, -2015 Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015 103
  88. 88. A New Business Worthiness Pledge The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to end poverty, combat climate change and fight injustice and inequality. By applying innovation, resources and expertise, I will pursue the business opportunities inherent in building greener, more equitable and inclusive societies I am a business leader who knows that business cannot succeed in societies that fail. I will do my utmost to be business worthy in all my efforts, and true to my business to support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. I call on my peers to do the same.
  89. 89. Building New Bridges
  90. 90. BREAK 106
  91. 91. Contents of Session 1. Year 2015-2018: Global Change, New Energies Realities Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 2. Organising ourselves 3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Leadership
  92. 92. One World. Many Needs. Many Views
  93. 93. Founding partners “In Leadership- we are all students for life” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  94. 94. Leadership Levels • Managing Yourself • Leading Innovation • Leading change in complex multi-stakeholder and societal settings
  95. 95. Managing yourself Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  96. 96. Founding partners “Only good can come from good” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  97. 97. How much do you know about (your) self? Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  98. 98. What happy people know Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  99. 99. Conquering the self Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  100. 100. Bishop Currie 116
  101. 101. Leading Innovation Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  102. 102. Founding partners “The art of making things Better” Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  103. 103. 119
  104. 104. 120
  105. 105. 121
  106. 106. 122
  107. 107. 123
  108. 108. 124
  109. 109. 125
  110. 110. 126
  111. 111. 127
  112. 112. 128
  113. 113. 129
  114. 114. 130
  115. 115. 131
  116. 116. A little conceptual.. (adding it all together)
  117. 117. Open Innovation- for true system change 133
  118. 118. 134
  119. 119. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society. The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio- political, economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests exercised on location. The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now and in the future. 135 Energy Architecture
  120. 120. Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition and Transformation” Renewables Energy Efficiency Product Re- designs Energy Architectures Re-designs Fossil 1 2 3 4 5
  121. 121. Levels of Change • Level 1 • Level 2 • Level 3 • Level 4 • Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2 tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying • Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and capital control structures • Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio- economic and corporate business models- also in international trade • Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
  122. 122. The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1) • OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia • (Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec • China Inc., India Inc. • Developing (without Resources) • Developing (with Resources) • Least developed. Poor.
  123. 123. The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
  124. 124. Mainstream • Governments (1) • Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2) • New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3) • Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4) 1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system Bottoms-up • Community, Start-up Community (5) The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
  125. 125. The way it works (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination “Organizational Forms and Formats” - that works 142 e.g. Country Catogories, Geographies & Markets Business Formula- and Cross-Sectors Forms of Collaboration
  126. 126. Leading change in complex stakeholder and societal settings Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
  127. 127. 144
  128. 128. 145
  129. 129. 146
  130. 130. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved “”Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear- to all”
  131. 131. Organizing people 5/27/2018
  132. 132. 149
  133. 133. Rex Tillerson (“Hi- I am the New Guy”) Plain Leadership talk – at US State Department Accountability Honesty Respect One TEAM, One Mission
  134. 134. Rex Tillerson Plain Leadership talk – at US State Department (part 2) 152 System Rethink World View Re-Organisation Approach Unconstrained Re-think Respect to Staff
  135. 135. 153
  136. 136. 154 Kotter on Change and Organizations for Change
  137. 137. Kotter on Change and Organizations for Change
  138. 138. Can We Listen before Change?
  139. 139. Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works Energy For One World- 2017, All Rights Reserved
  140. 140. Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The way it works 158 The Way it Works for a System Rethink World View Cultures Institutions Our Leadership Ways
  141. 141. Core Values Cultural Dimensions Global People Skills CONSCIOUS UNCONSCIOUS
  142. 142. Servant Leadership • Compassionate love • Authenticity • Humbleness • Empowerment • Provide direction • Stewardship Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound
  143. 143. Example Shell AGM: Shell, investors and the People The People Shell AGM 161
  144. 144. Pope Francis: Dream Big
  145. 145. 163 1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of Globalization (2016) 2. Sustainable Humanity (2012) 3. We can no longer manage decency (2018) 4. Asia- the sustainable centre of the world (2019) “Leading Global Decency”
  146. 146. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDG’s and Our Leadership. – Energy For One World - Mail Address: p/a Adriaan Kamp (Founder), Dirk Hoogenraadstraat 152A, 2586 TN The Hague, The Netherlands. Skype: Adriaan.Kamp Direct line (Netherlands): 0031-614939194 (director)