The document summarizes the impacts of Typhoon Hagibis in Japan in October 2019 and discusses economic evaluation of flood control projects. Specifically: - Typhoon Hagibis brought record rainfall and caused 140 levee breaches, killing 90 people. Flood control facilities like dams and retarding basins helped mitigate flooding. - Principles on investing in water-related disaster risk reduction were introduced, aiming to double such investment by 2025 and prioritize prevention over response. - Japan evaluates flood control projects using benefit-cost analysis and non-monetary indicator analysis to assess economic and social impacts like damage to infrastructure, traffic disruptions, and ripple effects on local economies. Simulation of

1. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Economic Evaluation for Flood Control
Investment in Japan
December 3, 2019
Kazushi FURUMOTO
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Japan
OECD High Level Risk Forum (December 2019)

2. Outline
1.Overview of Typhoon Hagibis in Oct. 2019
2.Introduction of Principles on Investment and
Financing for Water-related Disaster Risk
Reduction
3.Economic evaluation for flood control project
and recent effort in Japan
4.Summary and next step

3. 2
1. Overview of Typhoon Hagibis
(Oct. 2019)

4. Overview of Typhoon Hagibis
・Typhoon Hagibis brought record-breaking rain in Japan on 12th-13th October,
especially in Tokyo and surrounding areas.
・Total amount of rainfall reached 1000mm in Hakone and exceed 500mm in 17 spots
Typhoon route
Tokyo
Tokyo
3

5. Total precipitation
Break the record
Break the record in Oct.
24 hours Rainfall Record
Record Break 103 Stations
24 hours Rainfall
From 2019.10.10-10.13
Spot Total Precipitation (mm)
Hakone (Kanagawa) 1001.5
Yugashima (Shizuoka) 760.0
Urayama (Saitama) 687.0
Ozawa (Tokyo) 649.0
Hippo (Miyagi) 607.0

6. Damage due to Typhoon Hagibis (Levee Breach)
： Breach point (MLIT)
： Breach point (prefecture)
： Rivers managed by MLIT
利根川水系秋山川（佐野市）【2箇所】
阿武隈川水系広瀬川（伊達市）
鳴瀬川水系吉田川（大郷町）
信濃川水系三念沢（長野市）
荒川水系都幾川（東松山市）
宇多川水系宇多川（相馬市）【3箇所
】
小泉川水系小泉川（相馬市）
那珂川水系那珂川（常陸大宮市）【2箇所】
荒川水系越辺川（川越市）
久慈川水系久慈川（常陸大宮市）【3箇所】
荒川水系越辺川（東松山市）
関川水系矢代川（上越市）
利根川水系黒川（壬生町）【3箇所】
利根川水系三杉川（栃木市）
那珂川水系蛇尾川（大田原市）
利根川水系思川（鹿沼市）【3箇所】
利根川水系出流川（足利市）
砂押川水系砂押川（利府町）
鳴瀬川水系渋井川（大崎市）
荒川水系新江川（東松山市）
那珂川水系那珂川（那珂市）
荒川水系都幾川（東松山市）
那珂川水系藤井川（水戸市）【2箇所
】
阿武隈川水系阿武隈川（須賀川市）
阿武隈川水系阿武隈川（矢吹町）【3箇所】
阿武隈川水系濁川（福島市）
阿武隈川水系滝川（伊達市）
阿武隈川水系安達太良川（本宮市）
阿武隈川水系社川（白河市）【5箇所】
阿賀野川水系藤川（会津美里町）
三滝川水系三滝川（新地町）
太田川水系太田川（南相馬市）
小高川水系小高川（南相馬市）【2箇所】
北上川水系照越川（栗原市）【2箇所
】
小高川水系川房川（南相馬市）
夏井川水系夏井川（いわき市）【5箇所
】
北上川水系荒川（栗原市） 北上川水系石貝川（登米市）
久慈川水系久慈川（常陸大宮市）
久慈川水系浅川（常陸太田市）
久慈川水系里川（常陸太田市）【2箇所
】
阿武隈川水系社川（棚倉町）【3箇所】
信濃川水系魚野川（南魚沼市）
阿武隈川水系斎川（白石市）
阿武隈川水系新川（丸森町）【4箇所】
阿武隈川水系内川（丸森町）【10箇所
】
阿武隈川水系五福谷川（丸森町）【4箇所
】
阿武隈川水系半田川（角田市）
阿武隈川水系高倉川（角田市）
鳴瀬川水系身洗川（大和町）
鳴瀬川水系小西川（大和町）
鳴瀬川水系名蓋川（大崎市）【2箇所
】
北上川水系熊谷川（栗原市）
利根川水系荒井川（鹿沼市）
阿武隈川水系阿武隈川（鏡石町）【2箇所
】
阿武隈川水系阿武隈川（玉川村）
北上川水系富士川（石巻市）
北上川水系水沼川（石巻市）
真野川水系上真野川（南相馬市）
新田川水系水無川（南相馬市）
信濃川水系麻績川（麻績村）【2箇所】
利根川水系永野川（栃木市）【6箇所
那珂川水系荒川（那須烏山市）【3箇所
】
阿武隈川水系藤田川（郡山市）
北上川水系瀬峰川（栗原市）
阿武隈川水系鈴川（鏡石町）【2箇所】
鮫川水系鮫川（いわき市）
阿武隈川水系谷田川（郡山市）【2箇所】
鳴瀬川水系名蓋川（加美町）
阿武隈川水系佐久間川（桑折町）
阿武隈川水系社川（石川町）
阿武隈川水系社川（浅川町）【3箇所】
阿武隈川水系藤野川（白河市）
夏井川水系好間川（いわき市）
信濃川水系皿川（飯山市）
那珂川水中川（矢板市）【3箇所】
那珂川水系内川（さくら市）
那珂川水系百村川（大田原市）
利根川水系新川（下野市）
信濃川水系千曲川（長野市）
信濃川水系志賀川（佐久市）
信濃川水系滑津川（佐久市）
 The torrential rains caused flooding and levee breaches in many areas
 90 people died, 9 people missing, 28,800ha and 70,341 houses inundated
The number of breaches : 140
Administrated by MLIT : 12
by Prefecture : 128
Tokyo
5

7. Leave Breaches
Kuji-river（Ibaraki）
Typhoon route
Chikuma-river （Nagano）
Oppe-river （Saitama）
Abukuma-river （Fukushima）
6

8. 泥水につかった
7

9. Comparison with the Hazard maps along Chikuma river
8

10. Emergency works for levee breach (Chikuma-River)
Oct.13 7:10AM Oct.14 9:10AM Oct.15 7:50AM
Oct.15 4:10PM Oct.18 9:00AM
70m
50m 20m
10m
Breach
Oct.13 3~5:30AM

11. Social and Economic Damages
Category Items
Transportation Highway
Railway
15 sections collapsed
93 sections closed by strong wind
247 lines affected
Industry Car (SUBARU)
Transportation
business
Financial Service
Suspended for 10 days
Late delivery in All over Japan for 5 days
83 ATM closed
Lifeline Clean Water, Gas, Sewerage and other life line facilities suffered
Medical care Hospital
Nursing home
33 hospitals inundated
47 homes inundated
Wastes Over 670,000 tons generated
Many Treatment plants suspended by inundation
Agriculture Total damage over 2.7 billion US dollars

12. Effect of Flood control facilities (Retarding Basin)
160million m3
90million m3
Sugao, Inadoi, TanakaWatarase
11

13. 940,000m3
Effect of Flood control facilities (Retarding Basin)
35,000,000m3
Arakawa Tsurumi
Yokohama
International
Stadium

14. Effects of Flood control facilities (Multi-Purpose Dam)
10/12 9:00 (EL.522.7m)
10/13 6:00 (EL.573.9m)
Yanba Multi-Purpose Dam
75million m3

15. Investment for preparedness (Kano River Basin)
 Typhoon Ida hit the Eastern Japan in September, 1958
 1,269 people died or missing (In Tokyo, 46 people died or missing, and 330,000
housed were inundated)
 In Kano River Basin (West of Tokyo), there were 853 victims，14 levee breaches
 The root and strength of Typhoon Hagibis is similar to Typhoon Ida
Typhoon route
Typhoon Ida
(1958)
Typhoon Hagibis
(2019)
Rainfall: 739mm Rainfall: 778mm

16. 15
Innundate Area houses damage amount
16000
1800ha $ 6789mil.
Effect of Discharge Channel
Discharging
1000m3/s
Normal
Discharge Channel
lowered the water
level in river 1.85m
and there was no
flooding
Project cost $ 275mil.
$ 0
24.6:1 !!
Discharge
Channel
(1965)

17. 2. Principles on Investment and Financing
for
Water-related Disaster Risk Reduction
※Launched at 4th UN Special Session on Water and Disasters in NY
(Jun. 24, 2019)
http://www.wateranddisaster.org/cms310261/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/HELP-
Principles-Full-Final-Printing.pdf

18. High-level Experts and Leaders Panel
on Water and Disasters (HELP)
Objectives: Assist the international community, governments and
stakeholders in mobilizing political will and resources, and take
effective measures to address the issues of water and disasters.
Chair: Dr. Han, Seung-soo (Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-
General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Water, Former Prime
Minister of the Republic of Korea)
Members: Indonesia, Japan, Myanmar,
Netherlands, South Korea, US, ADB, AMCOW,
GWP, JICA, MunichRe, NARBO, OECD,
UNESCO, UNISDR, WB, WMO, WWC, Others
http://www.wateranddisaster.org/
17

19. Goal of the Principles
• Double globally the investment and financing for
water-related disaster risk reduction by 2025.
• Shift international assistance from disaster
response to preparedness.
Current Goal
Emergency Response/
Rehabilitation 90% 50% 10%
Disaster Risk Reduction/
Preparedness 10% 50% 90%
18

20. Key Messages of the Principles
1. Water-related disaster risk reduction is indispensable
for sustainable development.
2. Pre-disaster prevention measures should be
prioritized and incentivized.
3. Governments should improve their systems and
allocate sufficient budget.
4. More funding sources than public funds should be
mobilized.
5. International community should expand financing.
6. Science, technology and knowledge systems should
support sound investment decisions.
19

21. 3. Economic evaluation for
Flood control project, and recent effort
in Japan
20

22. Non-Monetary Indicator Analysis
- MLIT has published the “Guidance for Non-Monetary Indicator Analysis of
Damage from Flood Disasters (2013 Trial Version).”
- The guidance illustrates calculation methods that base on certain assumptions to
allow for limits of data availability and limits of spendable human efforts.
Table of Contents
① Damage to people
② Damage from the functional decline of medical and
social welfare facilities
③ Damage from the functional decline of disaster-
prevention facilities
④ Ripple effects of the disruption of traffic
⑤ Ripple effects of the disconnection of lifelines
⑥ Ripple effects of damage to economy inside and
outside the disaster area
⑦ Damage to underground space
⑧ Damage to cultural facilities
21

23. Simulation of Inundation
River improvement plan
Estimation of benefits
Estimation of total
benefits
Benefit-cost ratio
Annual costs = construction costs
and maintenance costs incurred
during the year
Estimation of annual costs
of the river improvement
Total costs = sum of annual costs
Incurred during the project years
Estimation of total costs
of the river improvement
Non-Monetary Indicator Analysis for
the “with-the improvement” condition
and “without-the improvement”
condition
Estimation of damage
Can benefits be estimated in
monetary terms?
Benefit-Cost
Analysis
Non-Monetary Indicator
Analysis
• Selection of non-monetary
indicators of damage
• Estimation of annual average
reduction of damage
• Selection of the scale of flooding
• Division of the inundation area
into subsets
No
Yes
Calculating numbers for non-
Monetary indicators of damage
22
Implementation of the Non-Monetary Analysis

24. Intensification Benefit
10. Increase in land prices as a result of improvement in flood protection
Indirect Damage
3. Business interruption
• Business interruption damage (household, businesses, public and public interest services)
• Emergency response costs (household, businesses, public and public interest service)
4. Impairment of social welfare facilities (hospitals, social welfare facilities, disaster
management facilities)
5. Economic impact (disruption of traffic, lifeline, cascading economic impact of damages)
6. Other damage (underground space, cultural facilities, waste generated by flood)
7. Psychological damage
8. Risk premium (insecurities due to possibility of damage)
9. Damages that cause permanent changes to the local economic system
Direct Damage
1. Damage to asset
• General property damage (houses, residential properties depreciable assets and
inventory assets of businesses, depreciable assets of fishing and farming properties, etc.)
• Agricultural product damage
• Infrastructure damage
2. Human damage (human loss, people isolated etc.)
23
Items for Project Evaluation
Cost-benefit analysis and Quantitative assessment for flood control project

25. Quantitative Indicators for Non-Monetary Analysis
Indicatorsaresetfor
theitems#1to#4.
1. Indicators of damage to people
• Population in the inundation area
• Number of people that will require assistance at the time of disaster
• Estimated number of deaths
• Maximum number of people likely to be left in isolation
• Number of people likely to be left in isolation for more than three days
• Estimated frequency of evacuation per decade
• Estimated total number of evacuees per decade, etc.
2. Indicators of the functional decline
of society
• Estimated number of medical facilities affected by the disaster
• Estimated number of patients in medical facilities affected by the disaster
• Estimated number of dialysis patients in medical facilities affected by the disaster
• Estimated number of social welfare facilities affected by the disaster
• Estimated number of users of social welfare facilities affected by the disaster
• Estimated number of key disaster-prevention facilities affected by the disaster
• Population in the district whose disaster-prevention facility is to be affected by the
disaster, etc.3. Indicators of ripple effects of
damage
• Main roads to be disconnected
• Amount of traffic to be affected by the disconnection of roads
• Traveling time and expenses to be increased by the disconnection of roads
• Major railways to be disconnected
• Number of passengers to be affected by the disconnection of railways
• Population to be affected by the suspension of electricity, gas, water, and sewage
• Population to be affected by the suspension of landline and mobile phones
• Ripple effects of damage to economy estimated by economic models including
input-output analysis
• Likely impact of disaster-stricken companies on supply chains
• Number of listed companies to be inundated
• Number of employees of companies to be inundated, etc.4. Other indicators of damage
• Subway lines and stations to be inundated
• Number of passengers to be affected by the inundation of subways
• Underground malls/facilities to be inundated
• Number of users to be affected by the inundation of underground malls/facilities
• Cultural facilities to be inundated
• Amount of waste likely to be generated by flooding and inundation
• Estimated costs for treating flood waste, etc.
Estimation of damage
Direct damage
Damage to property
Damage to general assets Buildings for households and businesses
Household furnishings
Depreciable assets of businesses
Inventory assets of businesses
Depreciable assets of farmers and fishers
Inventory assets of farmers and fishers
Damage to agricultural produce
Damage to public works
1. Damage to people
Damage to people
Population in the inundation area, number of people requiring
assistance at the time of disaster, number of deaths, number
of people left in isolation, number of evacuees, etc.
Indirect damage
Damage to daily operations
Damage from the discontinuation of
daily operations
Households
Businesses
Public services
Costs for emergency response
Households
Businesses
National and local governments
2. Damage from the functional decline of society
Damage from the functional decline
of medical and social welfare
facilities
Medical and social welfare facilities
Damage from the functional decline
of disaster-prevention facilities
Disaster-prevention facilities of local government, police, and
fire department
3. Ripple effects of damage
Ripple effects of the disruption of
traffic
Roads, railways, airports, ports, etc.
Ripple effects of the disconnection
of lifelines
Power supply, water supply, gas supply, communication
services, etc.
Ripple effects of damage to
economy inside and outside of the
disaster area
Businesses
Mental damage
4. Others
Damage to underground space
Damage to cultural facilities
Waste generation from flooding and inundation
Risk premium
Ripple effects of changes in the socioeconomic structure of the disaster area
Estimated benefits from the sophistication of flood risk management
Items that have already been used for B/C analysis
Items that were added or modified recently
Items that have not yet been included in any analysis
24

26. The “maximum number of
people likely to be left in
isolation” will take account of
development of inundation
and passage of time.
Without dam… With the dam…
Legend
◎ Koshigaya City Hall
● Police station
● Fire department
Medical institution
● Large shopping center
Legend
(depth of inundation)
■ 30 cm or more
N N
25
• Decrease of the number of people to be left in isolation and the population to be
affected by the suspension of electricity supply by Yamba Dam Construction Project
Example of the Non-Monetary Indicator Analysis
• The areas surrounded by the red dashed line,
which correspond to urban areas shown in the
satellite phots, are the areas where the dam is
expected to bring its benefits.
1. Maximum Number of
people to be left in isolation
Indicator Damage
Area to be
inundated 110,000 ha
Maximum number
of people likely to
be left in isolation
(evacuation rate
40 %)
720,000
people
Indicator Damage
Area to be
inundated 120,000 ha
Maximum number
of people likely to
be left in isolation
(evacuation rate
40 %)）
800,000
people

27. The “depth of inundation likely to
cause the suspension of electricity
supply” will be associated with the
number of residents in the area in
blackout due to inundation.
Depth of inundation
■ 70 cm ~ 100 cm
■ 100 cm～ 340 cm
■ 340 cm or more「
Indicator Damage
Area to be
inundated 120,000 ha
Population to be
affected by the
suspension of
electricity supply
2.06 million
people
Indicator Damage
Area to be
inundated 110,000 ha
Population to be
affected by the
suspension of
electricity supply
1.9 million
people
Without the dam… With the dam…
Legend
◎ Katsushika City Hall
● Police station
● Fire department
Medical institution
● Large shopping center
2. The suspension of
electricity supply
26

28. The “maximum number of people likely to be left in isolation along
the Tone River” would decrease from 800,000 to 720,000 on
average, and the “population to be affected by the suspension of
electricity supply” would decrease from 2.06 million people to 1.9
million people on average.
Evaluation of
effects of the
project assessed
by the non-
monetary
indicator analysis
Project re-evaluation report
(December 2013)
27
In line with the guidance, the evaluation of effects of the project assessed by the
non-monetary indicator analysis appears in the project re-evaluation report.
Example of Project Re-Evaluation Report
http://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_info/seisaku_hyouka/gaiyou/hyouka/h2512/index.html

29.  For project evaluation:
Ways for a full-scale implementation of the analysis are
being explored.
 For risk evaluation:
Ways to include the analysis in the development of risk
management measures such as the following are being
explored.
• Development of management structures for emergency
evacuation
• Development of frameworks for emergency actions
Major Purposes of the Non-Monetary Indicator Analysis
28

30. ４．Summary and Next step
29

31. a) How to upgrade traditional cost-benefit analysis?
e.g. Discount rate
Evaluation by rate at B=C, not B/C, B-C
(Easy to compare with market rate)
b) How to assess the non-economic value of intangible?
e.g. Multi-evaluation method
c) How to assess the non-structural project?
e.g. Tax system, flood insurance, land-use regulation
d) How to assess the uncertainties?
e.g. Influence of Climate Change
Etc.
30
Thank you so much for your kind attention!

32. Categories of Flood Impact for Project Analysis
31
• The survey on direct and indirect damages considered in cost-benefit analysis
• Further updated and detailed research is necessary.

33. ・Annual occurrence of 1-hr rainfall
・Summary from nationwide 1,300
points of AMEDAS
Comparing the latest decade (2006-2015) and 30-yrs ago (1976-1985), heavy
rains of 50mm/hr and 100mm/hr increased 1,3 times and 1.6 times respectively.
Characteristics of Rainfall in the Recent Years
Occurrence of
heavy rain of
50mm/hr or more
32
Occurrence of
heavy rain of
100mm/hr or more
Ave.174 times
Ave.230 times
Approx.1.3 times
Ave. 1.9 times
Approx.1.6 times
Ave. 3.1 times