1) We developed a method to estimate comprehensive flood loss from numerically simulated river and inundation data using a global river model.
2) We applied this method to estimate direct and indirect economic costs from the 2011 Thailand floods using damage functions, capital stock data, and numbers of affected households and companies.
3) Our damage estimates were similar to independent estimates by the World Bank, and computational general equilibrium modeling estimated a GDP loss of 1.75% from the floods, similar to the World Bank's estimate of 1.1%. The model also found industrial activity stoppage had the largest impact on GDP loss.
The importance of geospatial data to calculate the optimal distribution of re...Paula Díaz
Díaz, P., Masó, J. (2013). The importance of geospatial data to calculate the optimal distribution of renewable energies.
Poster in EGU General Assembly 2013, Session ERE – Energy, Resources and the Environment, Vienna, April 2013.
The importance of geospatial data to calculate the optimal distribution of re...Paula Díaz
Díaz, P., Masó, J. (2013). The importance of geospatial data to calculate the optimal distribution of renewable energies.
Poster in EGU General Assembly 2013, Session ERE – Energy, Resources and the Environment, Vienna, April 2013.
Strengthening the evidence base for disaster risk management policy analysis ...OECD Governance
Presentation by Kenichiro Tachi at the OECD Workshop on Improving the Evidence Base on the Costs of Disasters (21 November 2014). Find more information at http://www.oecd.org/governance/risk/workshoponimprovingtheevidencebaseonthecostsofdisasters.htm.
Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Effective water management and sustainabl...UNDP Climate
Thailand, 27-28 November 2017 - UNDP and GIZ partnered with the Thailand Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE) to launch a workshop designed to connect vital stakeholders to build an effective National Adaptation Plan.
The two-day workshop at the Rama Garden Hotel had 20 participants from each department under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC). The workshop was designed to build capacity of planning officers to formulate better projects and budget submissions as well as potential climate finance proposal using cost-benefit analysis and ecosystem-based analysis appraisal tools.
Economic Evaluation for Flood Control Investment in JapanOECD Governance
Investing in infrastructure: Costs, benefits and effectiveness of disaster risk reduction measures.
Presentation made by:
Kazushi FURUMOTO
Director for International Coordination of River Engineering
River Planning Division, Water and Disaster Management Bureau
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Japan
Economic Loss Accounting in Japan, Tomoyuki Okada MLIT OECD Governance
Presentation made at the expert meeting organised jointly by the European Commission, the OECD and the project PLACARD, in Paris 26th -28th October 2016. For more information see www.oecd.org/gov/risk/joint-expert-meeting-on-disaster-loss-data.htm
Experiences From The Tohoku Disaster In Japan And Stakeholder Perceptions On ...Prabhakar SVRK
The presentation has two parts, the first part informs about the important lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku disaster in Japan and the second part informs about the implications of loss and damage associated with climate change and adaptation in terms of the stakeholder perceptions and what they mean for knowledge networks.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sv_R_K_Prabhakar/publication/264744472_Experiences_from_the_Tohoku_Disaster_in_Japan_and_Stakeholder_Perceptions_on_Loss_and_Damage_Associated_with_Climate_Change_and_Adaptation/links/53edc21b0cf26b9b7dc5fd93?origin=publication_detail
Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of pr...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Hirokazu TATANO1, Yoshio KAJITANI2
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
The Final Seminar of the Project for Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk for the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal was held on 14 February 2018.
The public seminar was held three times during the project.
The Final Seminar, “ Understanding Disaster Risks and Moving Towards DRR and Resilience”, presented on the activities and accomplishment of the project, construction of robust and resilient society against natural disaster risk.
Thank you all for your support and enthusiastic participation in this seminar.
Presentation: Local Disaster and Climate Resilience Plan (LDCRP) and Standard Operation Procedure (SOP)
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
Strengthening the evidence base for disaster risk management policy analysis ...OECD Governance
Presentation by Kenichiro Tachi at the OECD Workshop on Improving the Evidence Base on the Costs of Disasters (21 November 2014). Find more information at http://www.oecd.org/governance/risk/workshoponimprovingtheevidencebaseonthecostsofdisasters.htm.
Thailand UNDP-GIZ workshop on CBA - Effective water management and sustainabl...UNDP Climate
Thailand, 27-28 November 2017 - UNDP and GIZ partnered with the Thailand Office of Agriculture Economics (OAE) to launch a workshop designed to connect vital stakeholders to build an effective National Adaptation Plan.
The two-day workshop at the Rama Garden Hotel had 20 participants from each department under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC). The workshop was designed to build capacity of planning officers to formulate better projects and budget submissions as well as potential climate finance proposal using cost-benefit analysis and ecosystem-based analysis appraisal tools.
Economic Evaluation for Flood Control Investment in JapanOECD Governance
Investing in infrastructure: Costs, benefits and effectiveness of disaster risk reduction measures.
Presentation made by:
Kazushi FURUMOTO
Director for International Coordination of River Engineering
River Planning Division, Water and Disaster Management Bureau
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Japan
Economic Loss Accounting in Japan, Tomoyuki Okada MLIT OECD Governance
Presentation made at the expert meeting organised jointly by the European Commission, the OECD and the project PLACARD, in Paris 26th -28th October 2016. For more information see www.oecd.org/gov/risk/joint-expert-meeting-on-disaster-loss-data.htm
Experiences From The Tohoku Disaster In Japan And Stakeholder Perceptions On ...Prabhakar SVRK
The presentation has two parts, the first part informs about the important lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku disaster in Japan and the second part informs about the implications of loss and damage associated with climate change and adaptation in terms of the stakeholder perceptions and what they mean for knowledge networks.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Sv_R_K_Prabhakar/publication/264744472_Experiences_from_the_Tohoku_Disaster_in_Japan_and_Stakeholder_Perceptions_on_Loss_and_Damage_Associated_with_Climate_Change_and_Adaptation/links/53edc21b0cf26b9b7dc5fd93?origin=publication_detail
Measuring industrial production capacity caking account of malfunctions of pr...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
Hirokazu TATANO1, Yoshio KAJITANI2
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan; 2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
The Final Seminar of the Project for Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk for the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal was held on 14 February 2018.
The public seminar was held three times during the project.
The Final Seminar, “ Understanding Disaster Risks and Moving Towards DRR and Resilience”, presented on the activities and accomplishment of the project, construction of robust and resilient society against natural disaster risk.
Thank you all for your support and enthusiastic participation in this seminar.
Presentation: Local Disaster and Climate Resilience Plan (LDCRP) and Standard Operation Procedure (SOP)
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
The ability to recreate computational results with minimal effort and actionable metrics provides a solid foundation for scientific research and software development. When people can replicate an analysis at the touch of a button using open-source software, open data, and methods to assess and compare proposals, it significantly eases verification of results, engagement with a diverse range of contributors, and progress. However, we have yet to fully achieve this; there are still many sociotechnical frictions.
Inspired by David Donoho's vision, this talk aims to revisit the three crucial pillars of frictionless reproducibility (data sharing, code sharing, and competitive challenges) with the perspective of deep software variability.
Our observation is that multiple layers — hardware, operating systems, third-party libraries, software versions, input data, compile-time options, and parameters — are subject to variability that exacerbates frictions but is also essential for achieving robust, generalizable results and fostering innovation. I will first review the literature, providing evidence of how the complex variability interactions across these layers affect qualitative and quantitative software properties, thereby complicating the reproduction and replication of scientific studies in various fields.
I will then present some software engineering and AI techniques that can support the strategic exploration of variability spaces. These include the use of abstractions and models (e.g., feature models), sampling strategies (e.g., uniform, random), cost-effective measurements (e.g., incremental build of software configurations), and dimensionality reduction methods (e.g., transfer learning, feature selection, software debloating).
I will finally argue that deep variability is both the problem and solution of frictionless reproducibility, calling the software science community to develop new methods and tools to manage variability and foster reproducibility in software systems.
Exposé invité Journées Nationales du GDR GPL 2024
Professional air quality monitoring systems provide immediate, on-site data for analysis, compliance, and decision-making.
Monitor common gases, weather parameters, particulates.
Observation of Io’s Resurfacing via Plume Deposition Using Ground-based Adapt...Sérgio Sacani
Since volcanic activity was first discovered on Io from Voyager images in 1979, changes
on Io’s surface have been monitored from both spacecraft and ground-based telescopes.
Here, we present the highest spatial resolution images of Io ever obtained from a groundbased telescope. These images, acquired by the SHARK-VIS instrument on the Large
Binocular Telescope, show evidence of a major resurfacing event on Io’s trailing hemisphere. When compared to the most recent spacecraft images, the SHARK-VIS images
show that a plume deposit from a powerful eruption at Pillan Patera has covered part
of the long-lived Pele plume deposit. Although this type of resurfacing event may be common on Io, few have been detected due to the rarity of spacecraft visits and the previously low spatial resolution available from Earth-based telescopes. The SHARK-VIS instrument ushers in a new era of high resolution imaging of Io’s surface using adaptive
optics at visible wavelengths.
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
Richard's aventures in two entangled wonderlandsRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
1. A CGE analysis of economic costs of flood considering indirect
loss: A case study of 2011 Thailand flooding disaster
Shogo Nakata (1), Yukiko Hirabayashi (1)*, Shiniciro Fujimori(2) and Satoshi Watanabe(1)
(1)Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo, Japan
*contact : hyukiko@sogo.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp
(2)National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES RESULTS
REFERENCES
Koirala S, Yeh PJ-F, Hirabayashi Y, Kanae S, Oki T (2014) Global-scale land surface hydrologic modeling with
the representation of water table dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 119:75-89.
Yamazaki D, Kanae S, Kim H, Oki T (2011) A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in
a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47.
Fujimori S, Mosui T, Matsuoka Y (2014) Development of a global computable general equilibrium model
coupled with detailed energy end-use technology. Applied Energy 128:296-306.
• Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $ 19 billion in 2012
(Munic Re, 2013).
• If global warming proceeds, flood risk will increase globally in
particular Asia and Africa (Hirabayashi et al., 2013).
• Previous studies have been focused mainly on direct tangible
losses, however, indirect loss could cause considerable effects on
local eonomy as well.
•A retrospective river and inundation simulation
was conducted by CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011)
•The CaMa-Flood was obtained from a land
surface model, MATSIRO-GW (Koirala et al., 2014),
forced with a corrected reanalysis data (Iizumi et al.,
in prep.).
•Satellite-derived river width (Yamazaki et al., 2015)
was used for the simulation, while a parameter
of river depth was calibrated to obtain best-fit of
observed flood peak for the period between
1990 and 2000.
•Calculated daily inundation depth from CaMa-
Flood at a 0.1-deg horizontal resolution was
diagnostically downscaled onto DEM at 18 arc-
second (about 500m).
Direct asset loss
Modeled flood loss
Objective
①Estimating comprehensive flood risk including indirect loss.
②Estimating economical spreading effect of flood loss
METHOD
Damage RatioCapital stock ( 資産 )
Modeled annual maximum
inundation depth
Global River-Floodplain Model
CaMa-Flood
[Yamazaki et al., 2012]
Climate forcing(GFDJ55)
Land Surface Model
MATSIRO-GW
[Koirala et al., 2014]
Computable General Equilibrium model
CGE
[Fujimori et al., 2010]
Satellite-derived
inundation area
(MODIS)
validation
runoff
Damage depth function
Inundation Depth
Inundation Period
Direct Loss
Loss of direct
asset
Loss of
farmland
Indirect Loss
Emergency aid
expense
Recovery Cost Industrial
activity stop
Objective① Comprehensive Flood Loss
GDP
Observed
GDP
validation
Objective② Economical spreading effect
•Direct loss was estimated from modeled flood
exposure (potentially affected capital stock) and
damage ratio defined from damage-depth functions
for 3 land use types (urban, forest and cropland).
•Capital stock was obtained from re-gridded GPP
(Gross Provincial Product) multiplied by a
coefficient, 5.5, obtained from reported GPP in 2010
and estimated capital stock in 2010 by World Bank.
•Re-gridded GPP was obtained from a correlation
of percentage of urban grid and GPP for 77
province, as capital stock of urban grid was 2482
times of other grid.
GPP × 5.5
100.5E 100.75E
14.55N
13.95N
Million THB
Original GPP
GDP per capita multiply by
population density at 9km.
Re-grided GPP
Re-distribution of GPP
at 500 m.
Industrial area
Urban area
100.5E 100.75E
14.55N
13.95N
Million THB
Indirect asset loss
•Loss of industrial activity stop, ILi, was estimated as a number of days of activity stop multiplied
by total value-added amount as ILi = p x d, where p is value-added amount per day and d is the
number of activity stop (1.75 x days of inundation depth > 1m). This ratio was decided from
reported inundation period and stoppage of operation at 7 industrial estates.
•Emergency expense was calculated for households and business. The former includes working
cost of cleaning and additional family expense of fallback activities. Daily cleaning cost per
household (1935 THB, on 2010 PPP), total cleaning day at inundation level, additional family
expense and emergency expense per company were obtained from Japanese flood report (MLIT,
2005). Number of household and company of each province was obtained from Alpha Research
Company Ltd. (2008) and uniformly distributed.
We first developed a method to estimate comprehensive flood loss from numerically
simulated variables from river and inundation model. We then conducted CGE
analysis of 2011 Thailand flood to show economic costs of flood.
Flood simulation
CGE analysis
• A Computable General Equilibrium Model,
AIM/CGE (Fujimori et al., 2014) calculates economic
equilibrium.
• Model input was obtained from damage estimation
by World Bank.
Direct asset loss
(Industry, capital, household)
Loss of farmland
Emergency aid expense
( 救急費用 )
Industrial activity stop
( 産業活動停止 )
Recovery cost
( 修理費 )
Reduce capital stock
( 資本ストックを減じる )
All related variables×loss rate
Additional expenditure to
household ( 家計の追加的支出 )
Reduce capital operation rate
( 資本稼働率を減じる )
Increase capital stock
( 資本の形成 )
directindirect
Direct asset loss 845 bil.THB (The world Bank : 630 bil. THB)
Industrial activity stop 223 bil.THB (The World Bank : 528 bil. THB(industry +
agriculture))
Emergency expense 58 bil.THB (The World Bank : 38 bil. THB (household sector))
Modeled flood loss showed similar in magnitude comparing to
independent estimation by the World Bank.
Emergency expenseDirect asset loss Industrial activity stop
[Million THB]
CGE analysis of flood loss
Direct asset loss
excep. farmland
Capital Stock
(bil. THB)
Damage
(bil. THB)
Percentage
(%)
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries
1,676 5.67 0.34
Industry 211,770 513 2.36
Service 19,185 633 0.13
Transportation 6,224 248 1.02
Industrial activity
stop
Production
(mil. THB)
Damage
(bil. THB)
Percentage
(%)
Agriculture, Forestry
and Fisheries
1,327,575 34,715 2.61
Industry 13,275,427 493,258 3.72
Service 5,566,942 244,822 4.4
Transportation 1,468,494 9,496 0.65
• Loss of farmland: 8.57 %
• Recovery cost: 3.67%
• Aid from abroad: 10 million USD
GDPlossrate(%)
• Calculated GDP loss by CGE model (GDP of 2011 Thailand
flood minus GDP without flood) was -1.75%. This value is
similar to the estimation of the World Bank (-1.1%).
• Although loss of asset is the largest, effect of GDP loss from
Industry activity stop is the largest.
• The negative effect of flood loss lasts longer than 20-years
after the event.
GDPlossbyflooddamage
(millionUSD)
ACKNOWLEGEMENT
This study was supported by the Funding Program for the Global Environmental Research
Fund (S-14) by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan