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韋葆蘭
香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
SHAPING GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKET
影响全球消费市场15大零售高科技趋势
	
  
零售
业的
未来	
  
2
PRODUCTS & MARKETS
1. Everything is Smart
全面智能化
产品和市场
3
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
•  Smart Clothing 智能服装
•  Smart Homes 智能家居
•  Smart Cars 智能汽车
4
5
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
•  Connected Kids 联网儿童
•  Connected Pets 联网宠物
•  Smart Senior Home Care
智能家居老人护理
•  Smart Beauty 智能美容
6
1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market
消费市场全面智能化
市场规模
Market Size
(亿美元,Billions USD)
复合年增长率
CAGR
智能家居老人护理 Senior Home Care 4000 6.3%
智能美容 Smart Beauty 2480 3.4%
智能汽车 Smart Cars 800 8.5%
联网儿童 Connected Kids 640 10%
智能家居 Smart Homes 580 18%
联网宠物 Connected Pets 60 10%
智能服装 Smart Clothing 28 100%+
7
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping
移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
8
2. Mobile Apps Bury the Browser In Shopping
移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
The browser is dead …
浏览器时代已经殆尽…
88% 82%
12% 18%
Smartphone Tablet
Mobile App vs. Browser Split
App Browser
R.I.P.	
  
BROWSER	
  
安息吧,浏览器
	
  
	
  
	
  
1999-­‐2014	
  
… long live app nation!
…移动应用万岁
智能手机 平板电脑	
  
应用 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  浏览器	
  
移动应用与浏览器使用比例	
  
9
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
10
•  What is Click & Collect 什么是点击提货
•  More than two-thirds of UK shoppers used Click & Collect services in 2014
2014年超过三分之二的英国消费者使用过点击提货服务
Walmart	
  	
  
Drive-­‐Through	
  
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
11
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
•  Amazon launched its lockers in Sept. 2011
亚马逊在2011年9月份推出储物柜服务
•  Only 17% of US consumers used Click & Collect in 2013
2013年只有17%的美国消费者使用点击提货服务
•  Walmart started testing a drive-through grocery pick-up service in Oct. 2014
沃尔玛在2014年10月开始测试免下车食品杂货提货服务
Walmart	
  	
  
Drive-­‐Through	
  
Walmart	
  	
  Drive-­‐Through	
  
沃尔玛免下车服务
12
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
13
4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
线下展厅网络展厅
店内浏览
网上购买店内购买
网上浏览
14
4
8
8
10
12
13
16
17
22
25
28
9
18
20
18
29
25
30
26
34
35
40
消费电子
家用电器
衣服和鞋类
书籍,音乐,电影和视频游戏
食品杂货
家具和家居用品
自制/家居装饰
健康和美容
珠宝首饰/手表
体育设备/户外
玩具
2014 2013来源:普华永道,美国零售调查,2015年2月
4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
•  Webrooming, or researching online
and then buying in a store, has
become the norm and more common
than showrooming
网络展厅(在线研究,店内购买)已经变得
比线下展厅普遍
%	
  of	
  Shoppers	
  Not	
  Researching	
  Online	
  Before	
  Buying
40
35
34
26
30
25
29
18
20
18
9
28
25
22
17
16
13
12
10
8
8
4
Toys
Sporting Goods
Jewelry/Watches
Health & Beauty
DIY/Home Improvement
Furniture/Home Goods
Grocery
Books, Music & Movies
Clothing and Footwear
Household Appliances
Consumer Electronics 2014 2013
Source:	
  PwC	
  US	
  Retail	
  Survey,	
  February	
  2015
%的购物者在购物前没有进行在线研究
电子产品	
  
15
4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming
网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
Why Shoppers Webroom? 为什么购物者会通过网络展厅方式购物?
•  Don’t want to pay for shipping 不想支付运费 (47%)
•  Don’t want to wait for delivery不想等待送货(23%)
•  Like to touch and feel a product before they buy
他们购买之前, 喜欢手触商品 (46%)
•  Like to ask store to match better prices found online
喜欢要求店家匹配他们在网上发现的更优惠的价格 (36%)
•  Like the option to return to store if needed喜欢能去商店退货 (37%)
16
人们的购物方式
THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP
5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
17
5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
•  Consumers love the convenience and dependability of the services
消费者喜欢便捷和可信赖的服务
•  Retailers love subscription models as a source of recurring revenue
零售商希望将(网络)订购模式作为循环性的收入来源
18
选择一个计划
低至23美元
选择男性、女性或中性
Pijon选择内容
零售价为30-60美元
美味和健康的零食、健康和
美容用品、家庭必需品和有
趣的礼物	
  
每月交付不同
产品的盒子!
看看大家在说什么!	
  
5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives
(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
19
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores
纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
20
6. Ecommerce Pure Plays Open Brick-and-Mortar Stores
纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
•  Excluding Amazon, most online pure-plays hit a $1
billion revenue ceiling
除亚马逊之外,大部分纯粹的线上品牌公司都一般在10亿
美元时达到营收上限
•  Establishing a brick-and-mortar presence aids in
brand building and growing consumer awareness
设立实体店有助于推广品牌和提高消费者认知
•  Easier to get VC funding with technology connection
in the apparel/retail business model
在服装/零售商业模式中结合高技术更容易获得风险投资
•  More in 2015 2015年这一趋势会继续
21
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
线上食品百货是新的增长领域
22
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
线上食品百货是新的增长领域
•  Global Grocery Market: $4 Trillion 全球食品杂货市场:4万亿美元
•  U.S. Grocery Market: $600B 美国食品杂货市场:6000亿美元
•  Percent Online 在线销售比例: 1.2%
•  Approx. 12% of Internet users have bought grocery items online
大约12%的互联网用户曾经在线购买过食品杂货
•  主要品牌
–  Fresh Direct
–  Google Express
–  Instacart
23
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth
“点击支付”必将实现快速增长
24
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised for Dramatic Growth
“点击支付”必将实现快速增长
$3,737
$6,815
$10,451
$16,240
$23,472
$34,160
2014	
   2015	
   2016	
   2017	
   2018	
   2019	
  
CAGR	
  =	
  50%	
  
复合年增长率	
  
US	
  Contactless	
  Mobile	
  Payment	
  Market($	
  Millions)	
  
美国非接触式移动支付市场(百万美元)
%	
  	
  of	
  
All	
  Mobile	
  
Payments	
   7%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  10%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  13%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  16%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  20%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  24%	
  
Source: Forrester Research, October 2014
在所有移动
支付中所占
的百分率
来源:弗雷斯特研究公司,2014年10月
25
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise
零售商的技术支出在不断增加
26
9. Retailer Tech Spending On the Rise
零售商的技术支出在不断增加
•  Capex was approximately 3.6% of sales in 2013
资本支出大约占到2013年销售额的3.6%
•  We estimate that this increased to 4% in 2014
预计这一比例会在2014年增加到4%
•  Technology capex:
技术资本支出:
–  Walmart: 30% of capex in 2013; Spending $1.2-$1.5B on
ecommerce in FY2016 (= 9-13% of total)
沃尔玛:2013年占到30%的资本支出;2016财年电子商务支
出为12-15亿美元(占全部支出的9-13%)
–  Nordstrom: “Technology investments account for more
than 30% of our plan, up from roughly 20% historically”
诺德斯特龙:“技术投资占到计划投资的30%以上,超过以
往最高的20%左右”
–  Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards
interconnected retail and technology”
家得宝: “联网零售和技术方面的投资比例在不断增加”
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
JCPenneyNordstrom Target TJ Maxx Kohl's Macy's Walmart Home
Depot
CVS Sears
Capex/Sales Average
Capex/Sales	
  for	
  Selected	
  Retailers	
  
所选零售商的资本支出/销售额
	
  
Average	
  =	
  3.6%	
  
平均值 	
  
资本支出/销售额
	
  
平均值 	
  
27
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台
28
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台
•  Internet now ruled by pictures and videos
互联网上现在充斥着图片和视频
•  Consistent but slowing growth in social media
usage expected worldwide over the next 5 years
未来五年社交网络使用量会出现持续但缓慢的增长
•  Most of the growth in Asia
大部分的增长来自亚洲
•  Growth in the number of users is decelerating
用户增长率趋缓
•  Many social media experiences now on a
mobile phone
许多人通过智能手机访问社交网络
1.22
1.47
1.73
1.97
2.18
2.37
2.55
23.7%	
  
20.4%	
  
18.0%	
  
13.4%	
  
10.8%	
  
8.9%	
  
7.5%	
  
2011	
   2012	
   2013	
   2014	
   2015	
   2016	
   2017	
  
Social	
  Network	
  Users	
  Worldwide	
  (Bil.)	
  
全球社交网络用户	
  
Social	
  Network	
  Users	
   Change	
  %	
  
Source: eMarketer, April 2013
Note: Internet users using a social networking site at least once a month
来源:电子营销者,2014年4月
社交网络用户全球 增长率
29
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
社交媒体成为新的营销平台
移动消息	
  
估测计量	
  
30
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
31
11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
•  What is a beacon? 什么是信标?
•  The best solution for improving
the in-store retail experience
信标是改善店内购物体验的最佳解决方案
32
33
11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs
信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
•  2016 is expected to be the Year of The Beacon
预计2016年将成为信标年
•  US installed base expands rapidly, but consumer
response is key to further penetration
美国信标安装量在快速增加,不过顾客反应是进一步
渗透的关键
$4.1
$44.4
2015 2016
Beacon-Influenced In-Store Retail Sales
($ Billion)
信标影响的店内零售销售额 (10亿美元)
Source: Bi Intelligence, Feb. 9, 2015
34
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
微型定位提高店内体验
35
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
微型定位提高店内体验
They know where you are! 通过信标可以获知你的位置!
36
37
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
游戏化刺激新的消费行为
38
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
游戏化刺激新的消费行为
•  Gamification is the use of elements from
computer and video games in real-world
or other activities
游戏化是指在真实世界或其他活动中使用计
算机和视频游戏元素
•  These elements stimulate our
psychological needs for desire,
incentive, challenge, achievement and
rewards, feedback, and mastery
这些元素模拟我们的各种心理需求:
渴望、刺激、挑战、成就感等等
39
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model
Uber实现分享经济模式
40
14. Uberfication Enbodys The Sharing Economy Model
Uber实现分享经济模式
•  Uber is the most visible player (and driver)
of the “sharing economy”
Uber是“分享经济”最著名的参与者
和推动者)
•  Changing consumer mindsets will
challenge retailers
改变消费者的思维观念会对零售商提出新挑战
•  Opportunities for retailers: How much is
convenience worth?
零售商的机遇:便捷性到底有多少价值?
41
零售商业模式
Retail Business Models
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
42
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
•  Retailers need to spend smarter, not
necessarily more on cybersecurity
在网络安全方面,零售商需要作出更加明智
的支出,但是支出量不一定会增加
•  Holistic, enterprise-wide cyber-risk
detection and prevention are critical
first steps
首先应当实施覆盖整个企业的整体性网络风
险监测和预防措施
•  Human error has played a major role
in the recent cyber-attacks
在最近的网络攻击中,人为错误占主要因素
43
1. Everything is Smart
2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping
3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels
4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming
5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives
6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores
7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area
8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth
9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise
10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing
11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs
12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience
13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors
14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model
15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
15大零售高科技趋势
44
RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
15大零售高科技趋势
1.全面智能化
2.移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
3.网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
4.网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
5.(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
6.纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
7.线上食品百货是新的增长领域
8.“点击支付”必将实现快速增长
9.零售商的技术支出在不断增加
10.社交媒体成为新的营销平台
11.信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
12.微型定位提高店内体验
13.游戏化刺激新的消费行为
14.Uber实现分享经济模式
15.网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
45
韋葆蘭
香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
謝謝
THANK YOU

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The Future of Retail - Deborah W.'s Presntation for the 13th Department Store Summit Apr. 17, 2015

  • 1. 1 韋葆蘭 香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管 Deborah Weinswig Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SHAPING GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKET 影响全球消费市场15大零售高科技趋势   零售 业的 未来  
  • 2. 2 PRODUCTS & MARKETS 1. Everything is Smart 全面智能化 产品和市场
  • 3. 3 1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 •  Smart Clothing 智能服装 •  Smart Homes 智能家居 •  Smart Cars 智能汽车
  • 4. 4
  • 5. 5 1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 •  Connected Kids 联网儿童 •  Connected Pets 联网宠物 •  Smart Senior Home Care 智能家居老人护理 •  Smart Beauty 智能美容
  • 6. 6 1. Everything is Smart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 市场规模 Market Size (亿美元,Billions USD) 复合年增长率 CAGR 智能家居老人护理 Senior Home Care 4000 6.3% 智能美容 Smart Beauty 2480 3.4% 智能汽车 Smart Cars 800 8.5% 联网儿童 Connected Kids 640 10% 智能家居 Smart Homes 580 18% 联网宠物 Connected Pets 60 10% 智能服装 Smart Clothing 28 100%+
  • 7. 7 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP 2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
  • 8. 8 2. Mobile Apps Bury the Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物 The browser is dead … 浏览器时代已经殆尽… 88% 82% 12% 18% Smartphone Tablet Mobile App vs. Browser Split App Browser R.I.P.   BROWSER   安息吧,浏览器       1999-­‐2014   … long live app nation! …移动应用万岁 智能手机 平板电脑   应用                            浏览器   移动应用与浏览器使用比例  
  • 9. 9 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
  • 10. 10 •  What is Click & Collect 什么是点击提货 •  More than two-thirds of UK shoppers used Click & Collect services in 2014 2014年超过三分之二的英国消费者使用过点击提货服务 Walmart     Drive-­‐Through   3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
  • 11. 11 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道 •  Amazon launched its lockers in Sept. 2011 亚马逊在2011年9月份推出储物柜服务 •  Only 17% of US consumers used Click & Collect in 2013 2013年只有17%的美国消费者使用点击提货服务 •  Walmart started testing a drive-through grocery pick-up service in Oct. 2014 沃尔玛在2014年10月开始测试免下车食品杂货提货服务 Walmart     Drive-­‐Through   Walmart    Drive-­‐Through   沃尔玛免下车服务
  • 12. 12 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP 4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
  • 14. 14 4 8 8 10 12 13 16 17 22 25 28 9 18 20 18 29 25 30 26 34 35 40 消费电子 家用电器 衣服和鞋类 书籍,音乐,电影和视频游戏 食品杂货 家具和家居用品 自制/家居装饰 健康和美容 珠宝首饰/手表 体育设备/户外 玩具 2014 2013来源:普华永道,美国零售调查,2015年2月 4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 •  Webrooming, or researching online and then buying in a store, has become the norm and more common than showrooming 网络展厅(在线研究,店内购买)已经变得 比线下展厅普遍 %  of  Shoppers  Not  Researching  Online  Before  Buying 40 35 34 26 30 25 29 18 20 18 9 28 25 22 17 16 13 12 10 8 8 4 Toys Sporting Goods Jewelry/Watches Health & Beauty DIY/Home Improvement Furniture/Home Goods Grocery Books, Music & Movies Clothing and Footwear Household Appliances Consumer Electronics 2014 2013 Source:  PwC  US  Retail  Survey,  February  2015 %的购物者在购物前没有进行在线研究 电子产品  
  • 15. 15 4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 Why Shoppers Webroom? 为什么购物者会通过网络展厅方式购物? •  Don’t want to pay for shipping 不想支付运费 (47%) •  Don’t want to wait for delivery不想等待送货(23%) •  Like to touch and feel a product before they buy 他们购买之前, 喜欢手触商品 (46%) •  Like to ask store to match better prices found online 喜欢要求店家匹配他们在网上发现的更优惠的价格 (36%) •  Like the option to return to store if needed喜欢能去商店退货 (37%)
  • 16. 16 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLE SHOP 5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
  • 17. 17 5. Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案 •  Consumers love the convenience and dependability of the services 消费者喜欢便捷和可信赖的服务 •  Retailers love subscription models as a source of recurring revenue 零售商希望将(网络)订购模式作为循环性的收入来源
  • 19. 19 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
  • 20. 20 6. Ecommerce Pure Plays Open Brick-and-Mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店 •  Excluding Amazon, most online pure-plays hit a $1 billion revenue ceiling 除亚马逊之外,大部分纯粹的线上品牌公司都一般在10亿 美元时达到营收上限 •  Establishing a brick-and-mortar presence aids in brand building and growing consumer awareness 设立实体店有助于推广品牌和提高消费者认知 •  Easier to get VC funding with technology connection in the apparel/retail business model 在服装/零售商业模式中结合高技术更容易获得风险投资 •  More in 2015 2015年这一趋势会继续
  • 21. 21 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域
  • 22. 22 7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域 •  Global Grocery Market: $4 Trillion 全球食品杂货市场:4万亿美元 •  U.S. Grocery Market: $600B 美国食品杂货市场:6000亿美元 •  Percent Online 在线销售比例: 1.2% •  Approx. 12% of Internet users have bought grocery items online 大约12%的互联网用户曾经在线购买过食品杂货 •  主要品牌 –  Fresh Direct –  Google Express –  Instacart
  • 23. 23 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长
  • 24. 24 8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised for Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长 $3,737 $6,815 $10,451 $16,240 $23,472 $34,160 2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   CAGR  =  50%   复合年增长率   US  Contactless  Mobile  Payment  Market($  Millions)   美国非接触式移动支付市场(百万美元) %    of   All  Mobile   Payments   7%                          10%                          13%                          16%                            20%                        24%   Source: Forrester Research, October 2014 在所有移动 支付中所占 的百分率 来源:弗雷斯特研究公司,2014年10月
  • 25. 25 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加
  • 26. 26 9. Retailer Tech Spending On the Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加 •  Capex was approximately 3.6% of sales in 2013 资本支出大约占到2013年销售额的3.6% •  We estimate that this increased to 4% in 2014 预计这一比例会在2014年增加到4% •  Technology capex: 技术资本支出: –  Walmart: 30% of capex in 2013; Spending $1.2-$1.5B on ecommerce in FY2016 (= 9-13% of total) 沃尔玛:2013年占到30%的资本支出;2016财年电子商务支 出为12-15亿美元(占全部支出的9-13%) –  Nordstrom: “Technology investments account for more than 30% of our plan, up from roughly 20% historically” 诺德斯特龙:“技术投资占到计划投资的30%以上,超过以 往最高的20%左右” –  Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards interconnected retail and technology” 家得宝: “联网零售和技术方面的投资比例在不断增加” 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% JCPenneyNordstrom Target TJ Maxx Kohl's Macy's Walmart Home Depot CVS Sears Capex/Sales Average Capex/Sales  for  Selected  Retailers   所选零售商的资本支出/销售额   Average  =  3.6%   平均值   资本支出/销售额   平均值  
  • 27. 27 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台
  • 28. 28 10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台 •  Internet now ruled by pictures and videos 互联网上现在充斥着图片和视频 •  Consistent but slowing growth in social media usage expected worldwide over the next 5 years 未来五年社交网络使用量会出现持续但缓慢的增长 •  Most of the growth in Asia 大部分的增长来自亚洲 •  Growth in the number of users is decelerating 用户增长率趋缓 •  Many social media experiences now on a mobile phone 许多人通过智能手机访问社交网络 1.22 1.47 1.73 1.97 2.18 2.37 2.55 23.7%   20.4%   18.0%   13.4%   10.8%   8.9%   7.5%   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   Social  Network  Users  Worldwide  (Bil.)   全球社交网络用户   Social  Network  Users   Change  %   Source: eMarketer, April 2013 Note: Internet users using a social networking site at least once a month 来源:电子营销者,2014年4月 社交网络用户全球 增长率
  • 29. 29 10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台 移动消息   估测计量  
  • 30. 30 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
  • 31. 31 11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 •  What is a beacon? 什么是信标? •  The best solution for improving the in-store retail experience 信标是改善店内购物体验的最佳解决方案
  • 32. 32
  • 33. 33 11. Beacons Augment Couponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 •  2016 is expected to be the Year of The Beacon 预计2016年将成为信标年 •  US installed base expands rapidly, but consumer response is key to further penetration 美国信标安装量在快速增加,不过顾客反应是进一步 渗透的关键 $4.1 $44.4 2015 2016 Beacon-Influenced In-Store Retail Sales ($ Billion) 信标影响的店内零售销售额 (10亿美元) Source: Bi Intelligence, Feb. 9, 2015
  • 34. 34 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验
  • 35. 35 12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验 They know where you are! 通过信标可以获知你的位置!
  • 36. 36
  • 37. 37 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为
  • 38. 38 13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为 •  Gamification is the use of elements from computer and video games in real-world or other activities 游戏化是指在真实世界或其他活动中使用计 算机和视频游戏元素 •  These elements stimulate our psychological needs for desire, incentive, challenge, achievement and rewards, feedback, and mastery 这些元素模拟我们的各种心理需求: 渴望、刺激、挑战、成就感等等
  • 39. 39 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式
  • 40. 40 14. Uberfication Enbodys The Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式 •  Uber is the most visible player (and driver) of the “sharing economy” Uber是“分享经济”最著名的参与者 和推动者) •  Changing consumer mindsets will challenge retailers 改变消费者的思维观念会对零售商提出新挑战 •  Opportunities for retailers: How much is convenience worth? 零售商的机遇:便捷性到底有多少价值?
  • 41. 41 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
  • 42. 42 15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资 •  Retailers need to spend smarter, not necessarily more on cybersecurity 在网络安全方面,零售商需要作出更加明智 的支出,但是支出量不一定会增加 •  Holistic, enterprise-wide cyber-risk detection and prevention are critical first steps 首先应当实施覆盖整个企业的整体性网络风 险监测和预防措施 •  Human error has played a major role in the recent cyber-attacks 在最近的网络攻击中,人为错误占主要因素
  • 43. 43 1. Everything is Smart 2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming 5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives 6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores 7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth 9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise 10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs 12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model 15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势
  • 44. 44 RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势 1.全面智能化 2.移动应用购物远超浏览器购物 3.网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道 4.网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 5.(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案 6.纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店 7.线上食品百货是新的增长领域 8.“点击支付”必将实现快速增长 9.零售商的技术支出在不断增加 10.社交媒体成为新的营销平台 11.信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 12.微型定位提高店内体验 13.游戏化刺激新的消费行为 14.Uber实现分享经济模式 15.网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
  • 45. 45 韋葆蘭 香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管 Deborah Weinswig Executive Director – Head Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre 謝謝 THANK YOU