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The Future of Retail - Deborah W.'s Presntation for the 13th Department Store Summit Apr. 17, 2015
文档综述了影响全球消费市场的15大零售高科技趋势，包括全面智能化、移动应用购物的崛起、以及线上线下购物模式的融合等。强调了社交媒体营销和科技投资在零售业的重要性，并探讨了未来增长领域如线上食品和移动支付等。整体反映了零售环境的快速变化和创新。
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The Future of Retail - Deborah W.'s Presntation for the 13th Department Store Summit Apr. 17, 2015
- 1. 1 韋葆蘭 香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管 Deborah Weinswig Executive Director– Head Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SHAPING GLOBAL CONSUMER MARKET 影响全球消费市场15大零售高科技趋势 零售 业的 未来
- 2. 2 PRODUCTS & MARKETS 1.Everything is Smart 全面智能化 产品和市场
- 3. 3 1. Everything isSmart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 • Smart Clothing 智能服装 • Smart Homes 智能家居 • Smart Cars 智能汽车
- 4.
- 5. 5 1. Everything isSmart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 • Connected Kids 联网儿童 • Connected Pets 联网宠物 • Smart Senior Home Care 智能家居老人护理 • Smart Beauty 智能美容
- 6. 6 1. Everything isSmart in Consumer Market 消费市场全面智能化 市场规模 Market Size (亿美元,Billions USD) 复合年增长率 CAGR 智能家居老人护理 Senior Home Care 4000 6.3% 智能美容 Smart Beauty 2480 3.4% 智能汽车 Smart Cars 800 8.5% 联网儿童 Connected Kids 640 10% 智能家居 Smart Homes 580 18% 联网宠物 Connected Pets 60 10% 智能服装 Smart Clothing 28 100%+
- 7. 7 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLESHOP 2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物
- 8. 8 2. Mobile AppsBury the Browser In Shopping 移动应用购物远超浏览器购物 The browser is dead … 浏览器时代已经殆尽… 88% 82% 12% 18% Smartphone Tablet Mobile App vs. Browser Split App Browser R.I.P. BROWSER 安息吧,浏览器 1999-‐2014 … long live app nation! …移动应用万岁 智能手机 平板电脑 应用 浏览器 移动应用与浏览器使用比例
- 9. 9 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLESHOP 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
- 10. 10 • What isClick & Collect 什么是点击提货 • More than two-thirds of UK shoppers used Click & Collect services in 2014 2014年超过三分之二的英国消费者使用过点击提货服务 Walmart Drive-‐Through 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道
- 11. 11 3. Click &Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道 • Amazon launched its lockers in Sept. 2011 亚马逊在2011年9月份推出储物柜服务 • Only 17% of US consumers used Click & Collect in 2013 2013年只有17%的美国消费者使用点击提货服务 • Walmart started testing a drive-through grocery pick-up service in Oct. 2014 沃尔玛在2014年10月开始测试免下车食品杂货提货服务 Walmart Drive-‐Through Walmart Drive-‐Through 沃尔玛免下车服务
- 12. 12 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLESHOP 4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象
- 13.
- 14. 14 4 8 8 10 12 13 16 17 22 25 28 9 18 20 18 29 25 30 26 34 35 40 消费电子 家用电器 衣服和鞋类 书籍，音乐，电影和视频游戏 食品杂货 家具和家居用品 自制/家居装饰 健康和美容 珠宝首饰/手表 体育设备/户外 玩具 2014 2013来源：普华永道，美国零售调查，2015年2月 4.Webrooming BeatsShowrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 • Webrooming, or researching online and then buying in a store, has become the norm and more common than showrooming 网络展厅(在线研究,店内购买)已经变得 比线下展厅普遍 % of Shoppers Not Researching Online Before Buying 40 35 34 26 30 25 29 18 20 18 9 28 25 22 17 16 13 12 10 8 8 4 Toys Sporting Goods Jewelry/Watches Health & Beauty DIY/Home Improvement Furniture/Home Goods Grocery Books, Music & Movies Clothing and Footwear Household Appliances Consumer Electronics 2014 2013 Source: PwC US Retail Survey, February 2015 %的购物者在购物前没有进行在线研究 电子产品
- 15. 15 4.Webrooming Beats Showrooming 网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 WhyShoppers Webroom? 为什么购物者会通过网络展厅方式购物？ • Don’t want to pay for shipping 不想支付运费 (47%) • Don’t want to wait for delivery不想等待送货(23%) • Like to touch and feel a product before they buy 他们购买之前, 喜欢手触商品 (46%) • Like to ask store to match better prices found online 喜欢要求店家匹配他们在网上发现的更优惠的价格 (36%) • Like the option to return to store if needed喜欢能去商店退货 (37%)
- 16. 16 人们的购物方式 THE WAY PEOPLESHOP 5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
- 17. 17 5. Subscription Modelsas Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案 • Consumers love the convenience and dependability of the services 消费者喜欢便捷和可信赖的服务 • Retailers love subscription models as a source of recurring revenue 零售商希望将(网络)订购模式作为循环性的收入来源
- 18. 18 选择一个计划 低至23美元 选择男性、女性或中性 Pijon选择内容 零售价为30-60美元 美味和健康的零食、健康和 美容用品、家庭必需品和有 趣的礼物 每月交付不同 产品的盒子！ 看看大家在说什么！ 5.Subscription Models as Convenient Alternatives (网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案
- 19. 19 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 6.Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店
- 20. 20 6. Ecommerce PurePlays Open Brick-and-Mortar Stores 纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店 • Excluding Amazon, most online pure-plays hit a $1 billion revenue ceiling 除亚马逊之外，大部分纯粹的线上品牌公司都一般在10亿 美元时达到营收上限 • Establishing a brick-and-mortar presence aids in brand building and growing consumer awareness 设立实体店有助于推广品牌和提高消费者认知 • Easier to get VC funding with technology connection in the apparel/retail business model 在服装/零售商业模式中结合高技术更容易获得风险投资 • More in 2015 2015年这一趋势会继续
- 21. 21 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 7.Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域
- 22. 22 7. Online GroceryIs A New Growth Area 线上食品百货是新的增长领域 • Global Grocery Market: $4 Trillion 全球食品杂货市场:4万亿美元 • U.S. Grocery Market: $600B 美国食品杂货市场:6000亿美元 • Percent Online 在线销售比例: 1.2% • Approx. 12% of Internet users have bought grocery items online 大约12%的互联网用户曾经在线购买过食品杂货 • 主要品牌 – Fresh Direct – Google Express – Instacart
- 23. 23 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 8.Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长
- 24. 24 8. Tap &Pay Mobile Is Poised for Dramatic Growth “点击支付”必将实现快速增长 $3,737 $6,815 $10,451 $16,240 $23,472 $34,160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CAGR = 50% 复合年增长率 US Contactless Mobile Payment Market($ Millions) 美国非接触式移动支付市场（百万美元） % of All Mobile Payments 7% 10% 13% 16% 20% 24% Source: Forrester Research, October 2014 在所有移动 支付中所占 的百分率 来源：弗雷斯特研究公司，2014年10月
- 25. 25 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 9.Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加
- 26. 26 9. Retailer TechSpending On the Rise 零售商的技术支出在不断增加 • Capex was approximately 3.6% of sales in 2013 资本支出大约占到2013年销售额的3.6% • We estimate that this increased to 4% in 2014 预计这一比例会在2014年增加到4% • Technology capex: 技术资本支出： – Walmart: 30% of capex in 2013; Spending $1.2-$1.5B on ecommerce in FY2016 (= 9-13% of total) 沃尔玛：2013年占到30%的资本支出；2016财年电子商务支 出为12-15亿美元（占全部支出的9-13%） – Nordstrom: “Technology investments account for more than 30% of our plan, up from roughly 20% historically” 诺德斯特龙：“技术投资占到计划投资的30%以上，超过以 往最高的20%左右” – Home Depot: “Tilting investments towards interconnected retail and technology” 家得宝: “联网零售和技术方面的投资比例在不断增加” 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% JCPenneyNordstrom Target TJ Maxx Kohl's Macy's Walmart Home Depot CVS Sears Capex/Sales Average Capex/Sales for Selected Retailers 所选零售商的资本支出/销售额 Average = 3.6% 平均值 资本支出/销售额 平均值
- 27. 27 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 10.Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台
- 28. 28 10. Social MediaBecomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台 • Internet now ruled by pictures and videos 互联网上现在充斥着图片和视频 • Consistent but slowing growth in social media usage expected worldwide over the next 5 years 未来五年社交网络使用量会出现持续但缓慢的增长 • Most of the growth in Asia 大部分的增长来自亚洲 • Growth in the number of users is decelerating 用户增长率趋缓 • Many social media experiences now on a mobile phone 许多人通过智能手机访问社交网络 1.22 1.47 1.73 1.97 2.18 2.37 2.55 23.7% 20.4% 18.0% 13.4% 10.8% 8.9% 7.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Social Network Users Worldwide (Bil.) 全球社交网络用户 Social Network Users Change % Source: eMarketer, April 2013 Note: Internet users using a social networking site at least once a month 来源：电子营销者，2014年4月 社交网络用户全球 增长率
- 29. 29 10. Social MediaBecomes A New Platform For Marketing 社交媒体成为新的营销平台 移动消息 估测计量
- 30. 30 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 11.Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划
- 31. 31 11. Beacons AugmentCouponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 • What is a beacon? 什么是信标？ • The best solution for improving the in-store retail experience 信标是改善店内购物体验的最佳解决方案
- 32.
- 33. 33 11. Beacons AugmentCouponing and Loyalty Programs 信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 • 2016 is expected to be the Year of The Beacon 预计2016年将成为信标年 • US installed base expands rapidly, but consumer response is key to further penetration 美国信标安装量在快速增加,不过顾客反应是进一步 渗透的关键 $4.1 $44.4 2015 2016 Beacon-Influenced In-Store Retail Sales ($ Billion) 信标影响的店内零售销售额 (10亿美元) Source: Bi Intelligence, Feb. 9, 2015
- 34. 34 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 12.Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验
- 35. 35 12. Micro-locations ImproveIn-store Experience 微型定位提高店内体验 They know where you are! 通过信标可以获知你的位置！
- 36.
- 37. 37 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 13.Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为
- 38. 38 13. Gamification StimulatesNew Customer Behaviors 游戏化刺激新的消费行为 • Gamification is the use of elements from computer and video games in real-world or other activities 游戏化是指在真实世界或其他活动中使用计 算机和视频游戏元素 • These elements stimulate our psychological needs for desire, incentive, challenge, achievement and rewards, feedback, and mastery 这些元素模拟我们的各种心理需求： 渴望、刺激、挑战、成就感等等
- 39. 39 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 14.Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式
- 40. 40 14. Uberfication EnbodysThe Sharing Economy Model Uber实现分享经济模式 • Uber is the most visible player (and driver) of the “sharing economy” Uber是“分享经济”最著名的参与者 和推动者) • Changing consumer mindsets will challenge retailers 改变消费者的思维观念会对零售商提出新挑战 • Opportunities for retailers: How much is convenience worth? 零售商的机遇：便捷性到底有多少价值？
- 41. 41 零售商业模式 Retail Business Models 15.Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
- 42. 42 15. Cybersecurity DemandsSmarter Investment 网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资 • Retailers need to spend smarter, not necessarily more on cybersecurity 在网络安全方面，零售商需要作出更加明智 的支出，但是支出量不一定会增加 • Holistic, enterprise-wide cyber-risk detection and prevention are critical first steps 首先应当实施覆盖整个企业的整体性网络风 险监测和预防措施 • Human error has played a major role in the recent cyber-attacks 在最近的网络攻击中，人为错误占主要因素
- 43. 43 1. Everything isSmart 2. Mobile Apps Bury The Browser In Shopping 3. Click & Collect Blurring Lines Between Online And Offline Channels 4. Webrooming Beats Showrooming 5. Subscription Models As Convenient Alternatives 6. Pure Plays Open Brick-and-mortar Stores 7. Online Grocery Is A New Growth Area 8. Tap & Pay Mobile Is Poised For Dramatic Growth 9. Retailer Tech Spending On The Rise 10. Social Media Becomes A New Platform For Marketing 11. Beacons Augment Couponing And Loyalty Programs 12. Micro-locations Improve In-store Experience 13. Gamification Stimulates New Customer Behaviors 14. Uberfication Enbodies The Sharing Economy Model 15. Cybersecurity Demands Smarter Investment RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势
- 44. 44 RETAIL & TECHNOLOGYTRENDS 15大零售高科技趋势 1.全面智能化 2.移动应用购物远超浏览器购物 3.网上点击购买/店内提货模式模糊了线上和线下销售渠道 4.网络展厅击败线下展厅的现象 5.(网络)订期购买模式成为便捷的替代方案 6.纯粹的线上品牌公司都开设了实体店 7.线上食品百货是新的增长领域 8.“点击支付”必将实现快速增长 9.零售商的技术支出在不断增加 10.社交媒体成为新的营销平台 11.信标有助于零售商发放优惠券和实施积分计划 12.微型定位提高店内体验 13.游戏化刺激新的消费行为 14.Uber实现分享经济模式 15.网络安全要求零售商更有策略的投资
- 45. 45 韋葆蘭 香港馮氏集團利豐研究中心執行董事及全球零售科技研究主管 Deborah Weinswig Executive Director– Head Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre 謝謝 THANK YOU