1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers Respond To?
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-Commerce
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular
8. Black Friday: Could It Be Dethroned?
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
11. Presidential Election Impact
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015Duff & Phelps
M&A activity in the building products and materials industry was up nearly 20% in 2014 with further consolidation expected in 2015. The consumer confidence index is at a seven-year high and mortgage rates are at a 20-month low, both of which bode well for an increase in the homeownership rate. For more detail on housing trends, public market performance and deal activity, read the report.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
Building Products and Materials Industry Insights - Q1 2015Duff & Phelps
M&A activity in the building products and materials industry was up nearly 20% in 2014 with further consolidation expected in 2015. The consumer confidence index is at a seven-year high and mortgage rates are at a 20-month low, both of which bode well for an increase in the homeownership rate. For more detail on housing trends, public market performance and deal activity, read the report.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
This is Western Union Business Solutions October edition of the global currency outlook, providing you and your business with invaluable market insight and visibility of key risk events.
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Is it time to buy the U.S. in early June?
An oil and materials price bottom is fully in. That is bullish risk. The S&P500 can finish 2016 above 2200, which is a +5%
return. Another big positive: A U.S. 5.0% unemployment rate adds consumer momentum via pending wage pressure. This
builds incomes.
U.S. shares have recovered. Watch for bullish S&P500 breaks of 2,100 in June or later.
Before the Aug. 2015 sell-off, the S&P500 traded at 16.6x forward earnings vs. a 10-year average of 14.1x. The Feb index
traded at 15.2. The June 2016 index trades at 16.7x forward earnings. Bearishly, we trade a bit above valuation levels of
August 2015.
Zacks strategists still call an S&P500 at 2,200 to 2,300 by yearend, given a 15% chance of U.S. recession (including me).
The Australian economic growth continues to follow a steady growth path with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest point since July 2013. Key points affecting the Australian economy include:
• Negative rates overseas encouraging a new wave of inbound capital
• China’s transition to a consumption economy emerges in domestic economic activity with:
• Hotel investment volumes underpinned by a severe supply shortage, increased by 157% since 2013
• National growth results exceed expectations with service led growth crystallising
• Australian major commodity export prices bounce back
It’s been a challenging week for the pound; on Monday Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane spoke yesterday about "Big Data" and its use now and in the future to help shape the Bank's policy decisions.
Asia's major economies, China and Japan, are poised for a year of slowing growth and central bank transitions. Elsewhere in the region, the outlook is more mixed and in most of ASEAN, tepid private demand will keep rate hikes off the table.
Lee McPheters, economics professor and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School, presents at the Arizona State University/JPMorgan Chase Economic Forecast Luncheon on December 5, 2016
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPhetersShay Moser
How will the Trump economy affect Arizona? At the Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon, you'll find out the impact of the new minimum wage law on Arizona job creation, learn where unemployment is lowest around the Valley, and take a look at the industries driving Arizona economic growth at mid-year 2017. Lee McPheters from ASU's W. P. Carey School of Business addresses all the big issues and provides your first look at the local economy in 2018.
Join Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director at Fung Global Retail & Technology, and Planalytics for a review of retail Q3 2016, an overview of the current business environment, and how we expect weather to influence consumers in North America during the upcoming holiday shopping season.
Topics covered on this webinar include:
-A review of the weather conditions and business impacts during retail Q3
-How weather will impact consumers during the 2016 holiday shopping season with a comparison to 2015
-Product categories that are likely to be boosted/hurt by the weather
-Temperature/Precipitation projections for various U.S./Canada regions and the businesses that will benefit from those conditions
This is Western Union Business Solutions October edition of the global currency outlook, providing you and your business with invaluable market insight and visibility of key risk events.
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
This monthly briefing highlights how the world economy is struggling to gain momentum, emerging economies facing policy dilemma in trying to stabilize currencies and the G20 meeting making a call for new measures to lift growth and create jobs.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
E-UPDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a quick review of the economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
Is it time to buy the U.S. in early June?
An oil and materials price bottom is fully in. That is bullish risk. The S&P500 can finish 2016 above 2200, which is a +5%
return. Another big positive: A U.S. 5.0% unemployment rate adds consumer momentum via pending wage pressure. This
builds incomes.
U.S. shares have recovered. Watch for bullish S&P500 breaks of 2,100 in June or later.
Before the Aug. 2015 sell-off, the S&P500 traded at 16.6x forward earnings vs. a 10-year average of 14.1x. The Feb index
traded at 15.2. The June 2016 index trades at 16.7x forward earnings. Bearishly, we trade a bit above valuation levels of
August 2015.
Zacks strategists still call an S&P500 at 2,200 to 2,300 by yearend, given a 15% chance of U.S. recession (including me).
The Australian economic growth continues to follow a steady growth path with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest point since July 2013. Key points affecting the Australian economy include:
• Negative rates overseas encouraging a new wave of inbound capital
• China’s transition to a consumption economy emerges in domestic economic activity with:
• Hotel investment volumes underpinned by a severe supply shortage, increased by 157% since 2013
• National growth results exceed expectations with service led growth crystallising
• Australian major commodity export prices bounce back
It’s been a challenging week for the pound; on Monday Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane spoke yesterday about "Big Data" and its use now and in the future to help shape the Bank's policy decisions.
Asia's major economies, China and Japan, are poised for a year of slowing growth and central bank transitions. Elsewhere in the region, the outlook is more mixed and in most of ASEAN, tepid private demand will keep rate hikes off the table.
Lee McPheters, economics professor and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School, presents at the Arizona State University/JPMorgan Chase Economic Forecast Luncheon on December 5, 2016
2017 Annual Economic Outlook - Lee McPhetersShay Moser
How will the Trump economy affect Arizona? At the Annual Economic Outlook Luncheon, you'll find out the impact of the new minimum wage law on Arizona job creation, learn where unemployment is lowest around the Valley, and take a look at the industries driving Arizona economic growth at mid-year 2017. Lee McPheters from ASU's W. P. Carey School of Business addresses all the big issues and provides your first look at the local economy in 2018.
Join Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director at Fung Global Retail & Technology, and Planalytics for a review of retail Q3 2016, an overview of the current business environment, and how we expect weather to influence consumers in North America during the upcoming holiday shopping season.
Topics covered on this webinar include:
-A review of the weather conditions and business impacts during retail Q3
-How weather will impact consumers during the 2016 holiday shopping season with a comparison to 2015
-Product categories that are likely to be boosted/hurt by the weather
-Temperature/Precipitation projections for various U.S./Canada regions and the businesses that will benefit from those conditions
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - December 2018Jon Weaver
After reaching new highs in October, sale prices for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco dropped in November. The median price for homes fell 9.8% from October, while the average price dropped 13.7%. Year-over-year, the median sales price for homes was up 12.7% and the average price gained 23%. Home sales fell 14% from October, and they were off 46% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are down 14.6%.
The Asia Pacific Capital Markets report provides an in-depth look at the performance of the region’s property markets, examining the economic backdrop, key occupier markets, investment performance and trends affecting the geographies across the region.
2016 Market Outlook Presentation by REALTOR.com's Jonathan SmokeJessKern
Start your 2016 with a look at what to expect in the residential and commercial real estate markets at our annual Market Outlook. Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist with REALTOR.com, share his predictions for our industry’s top emerging trends and opportunities.
Global bond yields are at historical lows which mean global bond prices have rallied across developed markets while S&P 500 is close to its historical high. This by itself is a dichotomy as bond prices and equity prices are not expected to rally together at the same point. Either of the two has to be true.
•Bond prices and yields are inversely related therefore, bond prices rally when yields and interest rates are expected to be low. Interest rates are expected to be low because growth prospects are low. This would entail the central banks to cut rates and because the demand for credits will be low due to the low growth prospects, the yields are expected to be low which explains the rally in bond prices. Considering this, the rally in the equity markets is not possible as there is no expectation for growth. This is the dichotomy that the global world is at particularly in the developed markets. In the light of the current scenario, either of the two has to give in i.e. either bond prices correct leading to normalcy in yields or equity markets give in.
Explore the latest economic trends in our region
Get the latest on economic trends at the local, state and national level from Professor of Banking and Economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association, Harry Davis, PhD.
What is your assessment of our local economy?
Speaker: Harry Davis, PhD
Dr. Harry M. Davis is the Professor of Banking (1980) and Economist (1981) for the North Carolina Bankers Association. He is professor of Finance and past Chair of the Department of Finance, Banking, and Insurance at Appalachian State University (1981-1998).
As the North Carolina Bankers Association Economist, Dr. Davis puts together quarterly economic forecasts that are carried by various news outlets. Dr. Davis is frequently interviewed throughout the year by newspapers, television, and radio stations for stories on the economy and banking. Dr. Davis is a frequent speaker at state, regional and national banking conventions on economic and banking issues.
This year, we are excited to welcome members of the Carolinas Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives (CACCE) to the Briefing as our special guests.
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce was chosen to host the CACCE 2016 Annual Management Conference. Over 100 Chamber executives will be in attendance at the breakfast briefing to get the latest on economic forecasts.
Economic Outlook Briefing with Dr. Harry DavisChela Tu
Explore the latest economic trends in our region
Get the latest on economic trends at the local, state and national level from Professor of Banking and Economist for the North Carolina Bankers Association, Harry Davis, PhD.
What is your assessment of our local economy? Click here to take the Economic Conditions Survey. Results will be shared at the Briefing.
Speaker: Harry Davis, PhD
Dr. Harry M. Davis is the Professor of Banking (1980) and Economist (1981) for the North Carolina Bankers Association. He is professor of Finance and past Chair of the Department of Finance, Banking, and Insurance at Appalachian State University (1981-1998).
As the North Carolina Bankers Association Economist, Dr. Davis puts together quarterly economic forecasts that are carried by various news outlets. Dr. Davis is frequently interviewed throughout the year by newspapers, television, and radio stations for stories on the economy and banking. Dr. Davis is a frequent speaker at state, regional and national banking conventions on economic and banking issues.
This year, we are excited to welcome members of the Carolinas Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives (CACCE) to the Briefing as our special guests.
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce was chosen to host the CACCE 2016 Annual Management Conference. Over 100 Chamber executives will be in attendance at the breakfast briefing to get the latest on economic forecasts.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - April 2019Jon Weaver
The real estate market in San Francisco is beginning to heat up for three reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two, mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant millionaires.
Zillow Sued Over Zestimates - June/July Real Estate ReportAMSI, San Francisco
The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - January 2019Jon Weaver
Year-over-year, the median sales price for homes was up 18.1% and the average price gained 16.8%. That’s the fourteenth month in a row prices have been higher than the year before. Home sales fell 27.6% from November, and they were off 39.4% year-over-year. For the year, home sales were down 15.5%.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - March 2019Jon Weaver
2019 is slated to produce a long list of multibillion-dollar IPOs from San Francisco Bay Area heavyweights like Lyft, Uber, Palantir, Pinterest, Airbnb, Slack, Postmates, and Instacart. The result will be a massive and sudden injection of liquid cash into a region already infamous for having the nation’s priciest real estate, according to Patrick Howell O'Neill, writing for Gizmodo.
One of the projections in his article is the IPOs will produce 211 techie buyers to purchase property above $10 million, while thousands more are expected to buy above $1 million.
Overview – Retail Sales Looking Brighter for Back-to-School
2Q Update – Earnings Scorecards; Consumer Discretionary Leads Growth
July Same-Stores Sales Somewhat Mixed
Back-to-School Drives July Traffic to Best Month of Calendar Year
Back-to-School Outlook; Solid Forecast, Room for Upside
Category Spend; School Supplies and Clothing Highest Growth
Finding Dollars in New Places
Where Consumers Plan to Shop – Discount Stores & Online
Shopping and Advertising Starting Earlier
Fashion Trends
Calendar Impact
2016 Second Half Predictions
Macro Outlook
ICSC—Texas New Techies: A Retail Startup Pitch CompetitionDeborah Weinswig
- A startup pitch competition is a session where entrepreneurs with innovative business ideas can boost awareness of their products and ideas and convince potential investors to invest in their company.
- Each company will have five minutes to present, followed by a 75-second Q&A session today.
US 2016 Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for HolidayDeborah Weinswig
1. Holiday Homestretch: Performance to Date Bodes Well for Holiday
2. Holiday Shopping Season Lengthened
3. Some Retailers Shut their Doors on Thanksgiving
4. Thanksgiving/Black Friday Store Traffic Declined Modestly, but Showed Improvement over Recent Years
5. Black Friday Online Sales Hit Record, Mobile Drove Growth
6. Comments from Retailers on Black Friday Results
7. Cyber Monday Set Online Sales Record
8. Amazon Won Cyber Weekend Again
9. Thanksgiving Weekend: E-Commerce’s Share of Holiday Spending Increased
10. Cyber Monday Becomes Cyber Week
11. Sales by Region: Thanksgiving Day Through Cyber Monday
12. With the Bulk of Major Shopping Days Still Ahead, Expect a Last-Minute Rush of Holiday Shoppers
13. Post–Black Friday Drop-Off in Traffic Seen in Last Few Weeks Is Normal
14. Online Traffic Remained Strong in Early December Despite Expected Post–Black Friday Drop-Off
15. Holiday Promotions Generally Consistent with Last Year, Not as Deep as Black Friday’s
16. Retailers Should Take a Holistic View of Consumers to Be Successful
17. Holiday Themes: Fashion Trends
18. Positive Holiday Calendar
19. Favorable Macro Backdrop
US 2016 Holiday Wrap-Up: Successful Season Driven by a Late-December SurgeDeborah Weinswig
1. Holiday Wrap-Up: Season Was a Success, Driven by a Last-Minute Surge of Shoppers
2. Consumers Were Willing to Wait for the Best Deals, Which Resulted in a Last-Minute Rush in Sales
3. Favorable Holiday Calendar; Day Before Christmas Was a Saturday
4. Cold Weather Caused an Uptick in Outerwear Sales
5. Holiday Online Sales Growth Outpaced In-Store Sales Growth
6. Retailers Managed Online/Offline Balance Better than in Years Past
7. Amazon Won with Its “Best Ever” Holiday Season
8. In-Store Traffic Increased When Online Delivery Window Closed
9. Not Everybody Won—Department Store Sales Growth Was Less Robust and Apparel Struggled amid Discounting
10. This Season’s Best-Sellers: Tech-Related Products
11. Traffic Momentum Continued After Christmas
12. National Returns Day, January 5, Expected to Draw 1.3 Million Package Returns
13. Brick-and-Mortar Stores See Returns as an Opportunity to Drive Sales
14. Favorable Macro Backdrop
The Future Customer and Opportunities for Startups
Q3 2016 Recap & US 2016 Holiday Preview
1. Q3 2016 RECAP & HOLIDAY PREVIEW
WEBCAST
Evan Gold
Executive Vice President
Global Services
Deborah Weinswig
Managing Director
Head of Global Retail & Technology
3. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
US 2016 HOLIDAY
PREVIEW
3
DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR
FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
November 9, 2016
4. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
Agenda
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday
2016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday
Growth
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
5. E-Commerce: What Do Consumers
Respond To?
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up
Slightly; Clear Shift Toward E-
Commerce
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will
Remain Popular
4
8. Black Friday: Could It Be
Dethroned?
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More
Early-Bird Online Shoppers in the US
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
11. Presidential Election Impact
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s
Hot Toys for 2016
5. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
Indicator Period 2016 2015
YoY %
Change
Impact on
Consumption
Gas Price (USD per Gallon) Nov $2.23 $2.24 (0.4)% +
Unemployment Rate Oct 4.9% 5.0% (0.1)% +
Average Hourly Earnings Oct $25.92 $25.21 2.8% +
Real Disposable Income
($Bil.)
Sep 12,694.1 12,427.6 2.1% +
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
20-City Composite Home
Price SA Index
Aug 188.2 179.0 5.1% +
University of Michigan Index
of Consumer Sentiment
Oct 87.2 90.0 (3.1)% –
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics/US Energy Information Administration/US Bureau of Economic Analysis/S&P Dow Jones/University of Michigan
5
6. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop
• Gas prices were down 0.4% year over year in the 1st week of November
• Consumer confidence stood at 87.2 in October, down 3.1% year over year
• The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, 0.1% lower than in October
2015
• Private sector wages rose by 2.8% year over year in October
• Real disposable income grew 0.1% month over month in September, after
remaining virtually unchanged in the prior month
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
• Inflation/deflation
– Apparel prices are below the average inflationary level
– Food prices fell by 0.1% month over month and by 1.7% year over year in September
6
Source: US Energy Information Administration/International Monetary Fund/Rhodium Group
7. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumers Slightly More
Optimistic as Gas Prices Level Off
• Gas prices were $2.33 per gallon in September, down more than 5% from a
year ago
• Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate
Nov 7 2016,
$2.23
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Nov 14 May 15 Nov 15 May 16 Nov 16
Retail Gasoline Prices (USD per Gal.)
7
Source: US Energy Information Administration
8. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Sentiment
Slides in October
• The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 87.2 in
October, down 3.1% year over year and 4.4% month over month.
• Consumer sentiment slid in October due to a temporary bout of uncertainty
caused by the election and less favorable prospects for the national
economy, with half of all consumers anticipating an economic downturn
sometime in the next five years.
87.2
30
50
70
90
110
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
8
Through September 30, 2016
Source: University of Michigan
9. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: The Labor Market Stands Firm
• The US unemployment rate was 4.9% in October, edging down from 5.0% in
September.
– Job gains were seen in professional and technical services, financial activities
and healthcare.
• Average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose by 2.8% year over
year to $25.92 in October.
4.9%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
US Unemployment Rate
2.8%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY % Change)
9
Through September 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
10. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Consumer Savings Rate Falls as
Disposable Income Increases
• Real disposable income was flat month over month in September, but up 2.1%
year over year. The figure stayed flat for the second consecutive month.
• The US personal savings rate remains below levels seen at the start of 2016,
reaching 5.7% in September, suggesting that many consumers are in a good
place and have money to spend
Real Disposable Income (Left Axis) and Personal Savings (Right Axis)
10
Through August 30, 2016; seasonally adjusted
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
12,694.1
797.8
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
11,000.0
11,500.0
12,000.0
12,500.0
13,000.0
Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
Real Disposable Income Personal Savings
11. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: Home Price Gains Continue in
August
• The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index
increased by 5.1% in August
• Home prices continued to rise moderately, supported by low mortgage rates
and a shortage of supply
– The number of homes for sale has fallen by almost 7% from a year ago in August
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price SA Index
188.2
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug 16
11
Source: S&P Dow Jones
12. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Consumer Prices Rose
Steadily in September
• The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.1%
month over month in September and was up 1.7% from September 2015
• Consumer prices have been driven higher by oil price rebound and rising
housing prices
12
PCE Deflator (YoY % Change)
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.2
1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
Headline Core
13. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
1. Favorable Macro Backdrop: US Retail Sales Point to Confident
Consumers
• US retail sales excluding autos posted solid growth in September, up 0.5% from
August and up 2.7% from the year-ago period
– Nonstore retailers’ sales rose by 10.6% year over year
– Restaurant and bars’ sales rose by 6.1% year over year
– Department stores declined 6.4%, continuing the recent trend of underperformance
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
12 13 14 15 16
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
13
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Jan 2012–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Monthly Retail Sales ex Autos
Oct 2015–Sep 2016 (YoY % Change)
Source: US Census Bureau
2.7%
2.7%
14. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
2. Overview: Optimistic About Holiday 2016
We are optimistic about the prospects for holiday sales this year and believe
there could be upside to projections
• We estimate that holiday sales from November through December will grow by
3% to 4% versus 3.2% last year and an average increase of 2.5% over the last
10 years
• The NRF is projecting holiday sales growth of 3.6%. On average, industry groups
are forecasting growth of roughly 3.7% for the period
• Positive factors include a favorable macro backdrop, calendar and weather
forecast
14
16. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
3. E-Commerce Driving Holiday Growth
• Online sales were up 15.8% in the second quarter, and accounted for 8.1% of
total retail sales
• We expect online sales to increase by 7% to 10% over the holiday season
($91.6B), and to make up 10.7% of total holiday sales
– One in three shoppers (35%) made more than half their holiday purchases online in
2015
15.3%
15.5%
17.4%
15.7%
16.4%
18.2%
17.4%
16.0% 15.5%
15.8% 15.8%
14.2%
14.8%
14.2%
15.2%
15.1%
15.5%
15.8%
US Retail E-Commerce Sales Growth, YoY % Change (1Q12–2Q16)
29%
30%
34%
31%
33%
36%
39% 40%
44%
46%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent of US Holiday Shopping Done Online (2006–2015)
16
Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Census Bureau
Seasonally adjusted
Source: NRF
17. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
4. A Very Mobile Holiday Season
• Mobile commerce was up 59% YoY to $5 billion during the 2015 holiday season
(comScore)
– The majority of search is now mobile: 56% of searches that resulted in a click-through to
a top retail site were conducted on a smartphone or tablet during the holiday season
• Spending via mobile devices is expected to increase by 45.2%, to hit $20 billion in
2016 (CTA)
– Smartphone m-commerce growth will exceed tablets’ growth for the first time in 2016
17
Source: Signal
51.7%
40.8% 34.0% 28.7% 24.6% 21.6%
46.6% 58.0% 65.0% 70.5% 74.8% 77.9%
1.70% 1.30% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50%
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Tablet Smartphone Other
$206.5 $267.3 $335.8$80.9 $115.9 $156.4
US Retail M-Commerce Sales: Total (USD Bil.) and Share, by
Device (%)
18. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
5. E-Commerce: What Will We See from Retailers?
• Retailers are offering a variety of online and in-
store ordering and delivery options
– 60% of retailers will provide both free
shipping and free returns (NRF)
– Buy online, pick up in store / Buy online,
return in store
• Save on shipping costs
• Add-on purchases
• The most profitable online promotions last holiday
season
– Online-only sales, limited-time offers and
free shipping (NRF)
18
Source: NRF, Holiday Survey
19. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
6. Holiday Hiring Projected to Be Up Slightly; Clear Shift
Toward E-Commerce
• Retail sector seasonal hiring:
640,000–690,000 versus 675,300 last
year
– Transportation, warehouse and
entertainment sectors will see
increases
• JCPenney plans 33.3% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 2,000 employees to focus on fulfilling
online orders
• Amazon plans 20.1% increase in
seasonal workforce
– 120,000 seasonal jobs for customer
fulfillment and customer service
Number of Seasonal Hires
2015 2016
YoY %
Change
UPS 95,000 95,000 0%
Macy’s 85,000 83,000 (2.4)%
Home Depot 80,000 80,000 0%
Amazon 100,000 120,000 20%
Target 70,000 77,500 10.7%
Kohl’s 79,160 69,000 (12.8)%
FedEx 55,000 50,000 (9.1)%
JCPenney 30,000 40,000 33.3%
Lowe’s 40,000 46,000 15%
Bon-Ton 13,000 13,000 0%
TOTAL 647,160 673,500 4%
19
Source: Company reports
20. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
7. Thanksgiving Day Shopping Will Remain Popular
• The trend to open early on ‘Gray Thursday’ will continue this
year, but at a slower rate than recent years
– 49% of retailers plan to open on Thanksgiving, up 1% from last
year
– 59% of Shopping visits will be on mobile
• Earlier online promotions to stay competitive
– Walmart and Target made majority Black Friday deals available
online the morning of Thanksgiving last year
• Retailers staying home for Thanksgiving to align with
corporate values
– Costco, Home Depot, REI, Office Depot, Mall of America, CBL &
Associates, T.J. Maxx
20
22. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: Retailers Open on Thanksgiving Last Year
22
23. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: REI With 2nd #OptOutside Campaign
• Generous employee benefit and external display of the brand’s
principles
– Encouraging consumers to spend time outdoors
– Younger consumers are more inclined to support a
company that illustrates social impact with specific actions
• With #OptOutside, REI will ask people to share what they are
doing on Black Friday via social media
23
24. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
8. Black Friday: No Longer the Biggest
Shopping Holiday of the Season
• Black Friday’s significance has
waned in recent years
– Promotional activity has increased
year-round
• Consumers looking for bargains and
spreading out their spending
– Almost half of shoppers will begin
shopping by November 1
• Friday, December 23, is set to be the
biggest shopping day of the season
– That Friday is the day before
Chanukah begins and two days
before Christmas
2016: Top 5 Expected Biggest
Shopping Days (Sales)
2016: Top 5 Expected Busiest
Shopping Days (Shopper Visits)
1. Friday, December 23 1. Saturday, December 17
2. Saturday, December 17 2. Black Friday, November 25
3. Black Friday, November 25 3. Friday, December 23
4. Thursday, December 22 4. Saturday, December 10
5. Wednesday, December 21 5. Monday, December 26
24
Source: RetailNext
25. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
9. Singles’ Day Will Capture More Early-Bird Online
Shoppers in the US
• Singles’ Day (Nov. 11) is China’s equivalent
to Cyber Monday. In 2015, e-commerce
giant Alibaba saw $14.3 billion in
transactions, up 60% from 2014
– Sales in the US reached $1.4 billion in 2015, up
14% from 2014 (Adobe)
– 180 US retailers had exclusive offerings
• Globalization is a top priority
– Expanding international brand offerings
– Katy Perry is a global ambassador
• We expect $20 billion in sales this year, a
40% year-over-year increase
– US sales expected to hit $2.5 billion
25
26. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
• There are two extra days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year:
31 days compared with 29 last year
26
Election Day
Singles’ Day
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
Cyber Monday
Giving Tuesday
Green Monday
Chanukah
(Sundown–Sundown,
Dec 24–Jan 1)
Super Saturday
Christmas
27. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
• Super Saturday falls on December 24, one day before Christmas and the day
Chanukah begins. Shoppers are likely to make last-minute gift purchases in
stores rather than online on Super Saturday.
• Shoppers will also take advantage of Free Shipping Day on December 16,
which guarantees delivery by Christmas Eve
27
10. More Favorable Holiday Calendar
28. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
11. Presidential Election Impact: Could Keep the Lid on
Spending Early in the Season
• Political ads driving up the cost of
advertising
– Political advertising spend is up 20% since the
last election, and digital spend is up 700%
– Expect delays in holiday promotions
• Retail store foot traffic and sales are
likely to be negatively impacted in the
weeks leading up to Election Day
– Shoppers are preoccupied with the election
– With uncertainty abounding, consumers tend
to put shopping trips on hold
• Postelection bounce back as shoppers
release pent-up demand after
November 8
– We expect November sales to be as strong
as last year
28
29. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
12. Holiday Shopping Themes
• Gift cards continue to be an attractive option
– Millennials are sensitive to cybersecurity issues
and identity fraud; they look for safer digital
payment methods
– Two-thirds of shoppers (63%) purchased at least
one gift card last year, up 2% from the previous
year (NRF)
• Travel and entertainment
– Almost half of overall holiday spending (42%)
will accrue to travel and entertainment
– Millennials preference for gifts that entail
experience driving growth
• Subscription services as gifts
– 1,450% growth in visits to those websites;
popular gifts include Birchbox and Dollar Shave
Club subscriptions
29
30. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
13. Holiday Fashion Trends
Standout fashion trends for the 2016 holiday
season
• Athleisure is changing shape
– A more refined, multifunctional look
• 70s style and athleisure trend in shoes
– Birkenstocks, Nike Jordan, Chaco
• Accessories
– Backpacks, smart jewelry and watches
• Denim and jeans strengthen, leggings trend
wanes
30
Source: Forever 21
Source: Instagram, @Forever 21
31. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
14. Hot Holiday Tech Giftables
• Tech items will remain popular
– 68% of consumers will buy electronics this
holiday season (CTA)
– Those gifting electronics plan to spend
3.1% more on them than last year
• Personal assistants
– Amazon Echo
– Google Assistant
• Virtual reality
– Sony PlayStation VR
– Google Cardboard
• Wearables
– Apple Watch Series 2
– Fitbit Charge 2
31
32. DEBORAH WEINSWIG
MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY
DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016
15. Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Hot Toys for 2016
• US toy sales grew by 6.7% in 2015 to
$19.4 billion (NPD Group)
• Toys that stimulate the mind
– Fisher-Price’s Think & Learn Code-a-pillar
– Cozmo, a robot with artificial
intelligence
• Movie releases to drive sales
– Trolls (November 4)
– Moana (November 23)
– Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
(December 16)
32