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Drugs of Despair
Business Cycles and Economic Policy
1
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/casetextsp17bpea.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/mortality-and-morbidity-in-the-21st-century/
Drugs of Despair
▪ Drug use from despair or addiction
▪ Recessions → Unemployment and Despair
▪ Unemployment Insurance runs out → Disability /
medications, etc.
▪ Attempt to crack down on pill mills raised price
of prescription opioids → substitutes
▪ Markets will meet demand…
4
6
Classical Economics
▪ Until Now:
▪ Been thinking long run - “Eventually”
▪Prices adjust and markets clear
▪Increases in money → inflation
▪ Short run (couple years):
▪ Can have recessions
▪ Changes in money can have an influence on
output
▪ We need another (new) model!
AD/AS Preview
7
Fidget Spinners
8
Super Bowl Tickets
9
Aggregate Demand
▪ AD curve: the quantity of “ALL” g&s demanded
at any given price level.
▪ AD = C + I + G + NX
▪ Assume G fixed by govt policy.
▪ Slope of AD
▪ must determine how a change in P affects C, I,
and NX.
10
Aggregate Demand
▪ Aggregate Demand = C + I + G + NX
▪ Suppose the price level increases:
▪ Wealth Effect
▪ Real value of money falls
▪ Consumers are poorer, purchase less (C)
▪ Interest Rate Effect
▪ Requires more “dollars”
▪ Less saved → interest rate increases
▪ Less investment (I)
▪ Exchange Rate Effect
▪ Increase in price level, less sold abroad (NX)
▪ Downward sloping
Wealth and I-Rate Effects
12
Shifters of AD
13
C H A P T E R
Moving on to the Aggregate Supply
20
Aggregate Supply
▪ AS curve - total quantity of g&s produced at any
given price level.
▪ Two versions:
▪Long Run
▪Short Run
15
Why the Slope of AS Matters
16
Why the Slope of SRAS Matters
In the short
run, prices
AND output
increase
In the long run, prices
increase (by more than in the
short run) and output is
unchanged (it reverts back to
long-run levels of output
Why LRAS Is Vertical
19
Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift
Three Theories of SR
Aggregate Supply
Three Theories of Aggregate Supply
▪ Decisions based on expectations
▪ Expectations of price, PE
▪ Expectations are incorrect → output deviates
from LRAS
Three Theories of Aggregate Supply
▪ Sticky wages
▪ If P>PE then firms profit until wages catch up
▪Produce more
▪ Sticky Prices
▪ If P>PE then firms slow to adjust see increased
demand
▪Produce more
▪ Misperceptions
▪ Mistake inflation for increase in D
▪Produce more
If P>PE, Produce More
23
Sticky Wages
24
Sticky Prices and Misperceptions
25
26
SRAS and LRAS
▪ Imperfections are temporary, eventually:
▪ sticky wages and prices become flexible
▪ misperceptions are corrected
▪ In the LR,
▪ PE = P
▪ AS curve is vertical
Short Run Aggregate Supply
▪ Shifters of SRAS
▪ Everything that shifts LRAS also shifts SRAS
▪ AND change in expected prices (input prices)
27
Using the Model
Economic Fluctuations
29
Economic Fluctuations
30
Stock Market Crash
31
Stock Market Crash
32
▪ Use AD/AS to analyze the US Economy
▪ Suppose a boom occurs in Canada.
▪ What happens to P? Y?
▪ In Short Run?
▪ In Long Run?
Working with the model
33
Answers
35
John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946
The long run is a misleading guide
to current affairs. In the long run,
we are all dead.
Short Run Policies
▪ Monetary Policy – the setting of the money
supply by policymakers in the central bank
▪ Fiscal Policy – the setting of the level of
government spending and taxation by
policymakers
36
Policy to Increase AD
1. Multiplier Effect
$12
$9
$6
$3
∆Y = $12 + $9 + $6 + $3 +...
39
1. Multiplier Effect
P
Y
AD
SRAS
PE
LRAS
YN
AD2 AD3 AD4
Gov’t
Purchases
Boeing
Employees
purchase gas
Gas station
employees
purchase clothes
…
40
1. Multiplier Effect
▪ 1. Multiplier effect - additional shifts in AD
that result when fiscal policy increases income
and thereby increases consumer spending
41
2. The Crowding-Out Effect
▪ Problem: Money from somewhere!
▪ Crowding-Out Effect
▪ Works in the opposite direction of multiplier
▪ A fiscal expansion:
→ reduces savings
→ raises interest rates,
→ reduces investment
→ reduces the net increase in agg. demand
42
2. Crowding Out
P
Y
AD AD2 AD3 AD4AD5
Net Effect
AD → AD5
= multiplier
= crowding out
43
Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand
▪ To increase AD, the Fed:
▪ Buys bonds, increasing the money supply
▪ Lowering interest rates
▪ Which increases investment, I
▪ To reduce AD, the Fed:
▪ Sells bonds, decreasing the money supply
▪ Increasing interest rates
▪ Which reduces investment, I
▪ Monetary policy acts with a lag, ~6 months
For each of the events below,
- determine the short-run effects on output
- determine how the Fed and/or Federal
Government should react
A. A recession takes hold in Europe
B. A stock market boom increases household
wealth.
Stabilization Policy
44
Stabilization Policy
45
Stabilization Policy
46
47
The Case for Active Stabilization Policy
▪ Keynes: “Animal spirits” cause waves of
pessimism and optimism, shifting AD
▪ Other factors:
▪ booms and recessions abroad
▪ stock market booms and crashes
▪ Fluctuations are destabilizing → Policymakers
should do something
48
The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy
▪ Long lags means policies hit too late
▪ Fiscal policy requires “an act of congress”
▪ Monetary policy may take 6 months to affect
output
▪ Active Stabilization Policy messes up price
signals businesses and consumers rely on.
▪ Policymakers should focus on long-run goals like
economic growth and low inflation.
49
Automatic Stabilizers
▪ Automatic stabilizers:
changes in fiscal policy that stimulate
agg demand without policymakers having to take
any deliberate action
▪ Tax System – taxes fall automatically as
incomes fall
▪ Gov’t spending – public assistance increases as
more people apply, stimulating economy
50
Automatic Stabilizers: Examples
▪ The tax system
▪ In recession, taxes fall automatically,
which stimulates agg demand.
▪ Govt spending
▪ In recession, more people apply for public
assistance (welfare, unemployment insurance).
▪ Govt spending on these programs automatically
rises, which stimulates agg demand.
Keynes vs. Hayek
51
52

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Drugs of despair

  • 1. Drugs of Despair Business Cycles and Economic Policy 1
  • 3.
  • 4. Drugs of Despair ▪ Drug use from despair or addiction ▪ Recessions → Unemployment and Despair ▪ Unemployment Insurance runs out → Disability / medications, etc. ▪ Attempt to crack down on pill mills raised price of prescription opioids → substitutes ▪ Markets will meet demand… 4
  • 5.
  • 6. 6 Classical Economics ▪ Until Now: ▪ Been thinking long run - “Eventually” ▪Prices adjust and markets clear ▪Increases in money → inflation ▪ Short run (couple years): ▪ Can have recessions ▪ Changes in money can have an influence on output ▪ We need another (new) model!
  • 10. Aggregate Demand ▪ AD curve: the quantity of “ALL” g&s demanded at any given price level. ▪ AD = C + I + G + NX ▪ Assume G fixed by govt policy. ▪ Slope of AD ▪ must determine how a change in P affects C, I, and NX. 10
  • 11. Aggregate Demand ▪ Aggregate Demand = C + I + G + NX ▪ Suppose the price level increases: ▪ Wealth Effect ▪ Real value of money falls ▪ Consumers are poorer, purchase less (C) ▪ Interest Rate Effect ▪ Requires more “dollars” ▪ Less saved → interest rate increases ▪ Less investment (I) ▪ Exchange Rate Effect ▪ Increase in price level, less sold abroad (NX) ▪ Downward sloping
  • 12. Wealth and I-Rate Effects 12
  • 14. C H A P T E R Moving on to the Aggregate Supply 20
  • 15. Aggregate Supply ▪ AS curve - total quantity of g&s produced at any given price level. ▪ Two versions: ▪Long Run ▪Short Run 15
  • 16. Why the Slope of AS Matters 16
  • 17. Why the Slope of SRAS Matters In the short run, prices AND output increase In the long run, prices increase (by more than in the short run) and output is unchanged (it reverts back to long-run levels of output
  • 18. Why LRAS Is Vertical
  • 19. 19 Why the LRAS Curve Might Shift
  • 20. Three Theories of SR Aggregate Supply
  • 21. Three Theories of Aggregate Supply ▪ Decisions based on expectations ▪ Expectations of price, PE ▪ Expectations are incorrect → output deviates from LRAS
  • 22. Three Theories of Aggregate Supply ▪ Sticky wages ▪ If P>PE then firms profit until wages catch up ▪Produce more ▪ Sticky Prices ▪ If P>PE then firms slow to adjust see increased demand ▪Produce more ▪ Misperceptions ▪ Mistake inflation for increase in D ▪Produce more
  • 23. If P>PE, Produce More 23
  • 25. Sticky Prices and Misperceptions 25
  • 26. 26 SRAS and LRAS ▪ Imperfections are temporary, eventually: ▪ sticky wages and prices become flexible ▪ misperceptions are corrected ▪ In the LR, ▪ PE = P ▪ AS curve is vertical
  • 27. Short Run Aggregate Supply ▪ Shifters of SRAS ▪ Everything that shifts LRAS also shifts SRAS ▪ AND change in expected prices (input prices) 27
  • 28. Using the Model Economic Fluctuations
  • 30. 30
  • 33. ▪ Use AD/AS to analyze the US Economy ▪ Suppose a boom occurs in Canada. ▪ What happens to P? Y? ▪ In Short Run? ▪ In Long Run? Working with the model 33
  • 35. 35 John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946 The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run, we are all dead.
  • 36. Short Run Policies ▪ Monetary Policy – the setting of the money supply by policymakers in the central bank ▪ Fiscal Policy – the setting of the level of government spending and taxation by policymakers 36
  • 38. 1. Multiplier Effect $12 $9 $6 $3 ∆Y = $12 + $9 + $6 + $3 +...
  • 39. 39 1. Multiplier Effect P Y AD SRAS PE LRAS YN AD2 AD3 AD4 Gov’t Purchases Boeing Employees purchase gas Gas station employees purchase clothes …
  • 40. 40 1. Multiplier Effect ▪ 1. Multiplier effect - additional shifts in AD that result when fiscal policy increases income and thereby increases consumer spending
  • 41. 41 2. The Crowding-Out Effect ▪ Problem: Money from somewhere! ▪ Crowding-Out Effect ▪ Works in the opposite direction of multiplier ▪ A fiscal expansion: → reduces savings → raises interest rates, → reduces investment → reduces the net increase in agg. demand
  • 42. 42 2. Crowding Out P Y AD AD2 AD3 AD4AD5 Net Effect AD → AD5 = multiplier = crowding out
  • 43. 43 Monetary Policy and Aggregate Demand ▪ To increase AD, the Fed: ▪ Buys bonds, increasing the money supply ▪ Lowering interest rates ▪ Which increases investment, I ▪ To reduce AD, the Fed: ▪ Sells bonds, decreasing the money supply ▪ Increasing interest rates ▪ Which reduces investment, I ▪ Monetary policy acts with a lag, ~6 months
  • 44. For each of the events below, - determine the short-run effects on output - determine how the Fed and/or Federal Government should react A. A recession takes hold in Europe B. A stock market boom increases household wealth. Stabilization Policy 44
  • 47. 47 The Case for Active Stabilization Policy ▪ Keynes: “Animal spirits” cause waves of pessimism and optimism, shifting AD ▪ Other factors: ▪ booms and recessions abroad ▪ stock market booms and crashes ▪ Fluctuations are destabilizing → Policymakers should do something
  • 48. 48 The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy ▪ Long lags means policies hit too late ▪ Fiscal policy requires “an act of congress” ▪ Monetary policy may take 6 months to affect output ▪ Active Stabilization Policy messes up price signals businesses and consumers rely on. ▪ Policymakers should focus on long-run goals like economic growth and low inflation.
  • 49. 49 Automatic Stabilizers ▪ Automatic stabilizers: changes in fiscal policy that stimulate agg demand without policymakers having to take any deliberate action ▪ Tax System – taxes fall automatically as incomes fall ▪ Gov’t spending – public assistance increases as more people apply, stimulating economy
  • 50. 50 Automatic Stabilizers: Examples ▪ The tax system ▪ In recession, taxes fall automatically, which stimulates agg demand. ▪ Govt spending ▪ In recession, more people apply for public assistance (welfare, unemployment insurance). ▪ Govt spending on these programs automatically rises, which stimulates agg demand.
  • 52. 52