“Intensification of Brazilian Agriculture: reconciling protection of the Amazon forest with agricultural production” by Dr. Alencar Zanon at the 2023 Water for Food Global Conference. A recording of the presentation can be found on the conference playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSBeKOIXsg3JNyPowwJj6NDSpx4vlnCYj.

1. Intensification of Brazilian Agriculture:
reconciling protection of the Amazon forest
with agricultural production
Dr Alencar Zanon
Professor of Agronomy
Federal University of Santa Maria, Brazil

2. • Brazil: major producer and exporter of soybean, maize and
beef (42.5 million ha planted with soybean)
Context
• Agricultural production has progressively shifted from the
historical area in the south to the Cerrado
• Soybean production drove deforestation during the late
1990s and early 2000s.
• 2005–2015 was marked by a tangible progress in reducing
deforestation rates -> Amazon basin still has 330 million ha
• The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine
• Sharp increase in crop commodity prices
• Desire of governments to quickly recover from negative
economic impact

4. • Investigate recent trends (post 2007) in soybean yield
and expansion
• Estimate soybean-maize extra production potential
through intensification on existing cropland area
• Assess environmental and production outcomes for
different scenarios of intensification
Objectives

5. Recent trends in soybean area and yield
Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)
Soybean area has expanded at 1.4 Million
ha per year during the recent 2007–2019
period
The increase of soybean expansion in the
Amazon accounted for one third of the
land converted for soybean production in
Brazil between 2015 and 2019
Yield improvement has been slower in the
Cerrado and the Amazon than in other
regions
Increase in agricultural output has largely
resulted from cropland expansion rather
than an increase in cropland productivity.

6. Large yield gaps for soybean (and maize too)
Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)
Pie charts showing average yield (green) and exploitable yield
gaps* (yellow) across the four main producing regions in
Brazil (Pampa, Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia)
* Exploitable yield gap defined as the different between average yield and 80% of yield potential
1. Soybean high water limited yield potential (5.4 t ha-1)
2. Stable yield (inter-annual CV= 4%)
3. Large yield gap (53% of Yw)
4. Large area (17 million ha)
If farmers reaching 80% of the Yw in the Cerrado:
Soybean:
Yield increase: +1.7 t ha-1
Production increase: 30 million tons
Maize:
Yield increase: +3.2 t ha-1
Production increase: +54 million tons
Equivalent to 9.4 million new hectares of land

7. Source: Global Yield Gap Atlas (www.yieldgap.org)
0
20
40
60
80
100
USA Argentina Brazil
Average
yield
(%
of
potential)
* Water-limited yield potential estimated using crop simulation models and local weather, soil, and crop calendars.
Potential = 4.8 t ha-1
Gap ≈ 22%
Potential = 5.4 t ha-1
Gap ≈ 45%
Potential = 3.9 t ha-1
Gap ≈ 32%
Yield gaps in Brazil in context

8. Scenario assessment
Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)
Business-as-usual (BAU): scenario in which historical yield improvement and
land-use change patterns persist during the next 15 years
Intensification (INT)
• acceleration of rates on yield improvement for soybean and maize
• further adoption of second-crop maize on existing soybean area wherever the
climate makes double-cropping possible
• a parallel intensification of pasture-based livestock systems so that part of
current pastureland and grassland is freed up for soybean production.
No cropland expansion (NCE) a scenario in which historical yield improvement
continues over the next 15 years, but there is NO cropland expansion

9. Scenarios of soybean production
1) Business-as-usual (BAU)
• Sharp increase in production but massive
land conversion (36 to 59 million ha)
2) No cropland expansion (NCE)
• 40% lower soybean and second-crop maize
production compared with BAU scenario,
3) Intensification (INT)
• Soybean production increases to 162 Million t
by 2035, mitigating the opportunity cost
associated with the NCS scenario.
Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)

10. Marín et al. (Nature Sustainability, 2022)
Environmental outcomes
1) Business-as-usual (BAU)
• 5.7 million ha of forests and savannah into
soybean cultivation and an associated 1,955
MtCO2e released due to land conversion
2) No cropland expansion (NCE)
• avoids deforestation and reduces global
warming potential, but incurs into a huge
opportunity cost in terms of economic output
(US$447 billion over the 15-year study period)
3) Intensification (INT)
• achieves an aggregated gross income from
soybean and second-crop maize that
represents 85% of that in the BAU scenario
• the total global warming potential decreases
by 58% in the INT versus the BAU scenario
• a reasonable balance between increasing
agricultural output and reducing the negative
environmental impact

11. IMPACT IN RESEARCH, EXTENSION AND TEACHING

12. New project:
5+10: intensifying soybean-maize systems
in the Brazilian Cerrado

13. Goal: foster a sustainable intensification of the soybean-
maize production systems in the Brazilian Cerrado

14. Project description
Adapted from Andrade et al., Agricultural System, 2022

15. New ‘Corn Belt’ in Brazil: triple cropping with irrigation

16. • Assessment for Brazil shows that intensification can help achieve a reasonable
balance between crop production and protection of fragile ecosystems.
Conclusions
• Acceleration of crop yield gains, coupled with parallel intensification of the
livestock sector, would enable Brazil to increase current soybean production
by 36% by 2035 without deforestation and with a notable reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions compared with following present trends.
• Intensification can complement other approaches to protect fragile
ecosystems, such as certification programs and forest moratoriums
• Without an emphasis on intensifying crop production within the existing
agricultural area, coupled with strong institutions and policies that prevent
deforestation in frontier agricultural areas, it would be difficult to protect the
last bastions of forests and biodiversity on the planet while being sensitive
to the economic aspirations of countries to develop

17. Thank you! Muito obrigado!