“The Colorado River: Behind The Headlines: Views From The Field” by Loic Fauchon at the 2023 Water for Food Global Conference. A recording of the presentation can be found on the conference playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSBeKOIXsg3JNyPowwJj6NDSpx4vlnCYj.
The Colorado River: Behind The Headlines: Views From The Field – Plenary III – 2023 Water for Food Global Conference.pptx
1. The Colorado River:
BEHIND THE HEADLINES: VIEWS FROM THE FIELD
Daugherty Global Water for Food Institute Gobal Conference
Lincoln, Nebraska
May 8, 2023
2. Not just California’s
Impact of loss of snowpack severe to
system dependent upon imported
water
3. Context
Western “mega-drought”
Colorado River23 year drought
Reservoirs near deadpool &
power generation at risk
Climate Change as gamechanger
Bye Bye Snowpack
”Weather Whiplash”
Too little and too much
4. Kind of a big deal
Wyoming
Utah
Colorado
New Mexico
______________
Arizona
Nevada
California
_______________
10 or 30* Tribes
_______________
Mexico 40 million people*
6. This is California on Climate Change…and
rest of Rocky Mountain States too
Source: NASA
7. Ditto Rockies
Not so picturesque but just as
dramatic in real life
This year’s snowpackapalooza in CA
more dramatic than in Rockies, but
nonetheless welcome and glorious
But only buys a relative nanosecond
of time to change our consumption
8. Some elements to bear
in mind
At tail end of 23 year drought, now punctuated by a snowpack
refresh
Geophysical record shows far longer droughts; climate change
exacerbates in a bad way
Drought not ”over.” Would take a parade of these years to refill;
estimates are it never will
Lowest levels in reservoirs since they were constructed
Very different physical settings & perspectives among the
states, tribes, and nations.
River governed by “law of the river” including Supreme Court
cases and a variety of agreements
Have been interim agreements that have delayed this day
Politics are hard—so this one worthy of Dune, 3 dimensional
chessboards, or whatever metaphors you favor
9. Where we are now
Federal government (BOR/DOI) has signaled in a series
of steps that they will take action in the absence of a
seven state agreement.
Modeling runs supplied by six states and California end
of January.
$4 billion from Inflation Reduction Act set aside to help
in process of allocation.
Temporary cutbacks (done)
Longer term cutbacks (to come)
Ecosystem restoration (Salton Sea) ($250 million)
April Draft DEIS with alternatives
July/August Bureau decision re allocations
Potential alternative agreement/Litigation
12. Key things to watch for
Will Federal government hold the line?
What will they fund with the rest of the $4billion IRA and $4billion more?
Did they aim too low at 2.83 maf?
Can they broker a deal?
Leadership: can individuals in various positions rise to the occasion?
Can we get to interim agreement now so that we can talk 2026?
Even without federal “cover,” will leaders emerge?
Media coverage has largely missed the “boat”
What’s happening behind closed doors is key; media can’t get to that so far
Will we see more exploration of the equities?
What are the options for 2026? Have to be dramatic.
How do we mitigate agricultural community impacts?
How do we bring Tribes into their rightful roles
Can we develop a healthy ag-urban-tribal series of agreements? With env too?
13. The opportunity:
Tools:
Conservation and efficiency of all kinds
Lawns and leaks
Agricultural production shifts in scale and type
Water Recycling
Stormwater capture
Desal in appropriate circumstances
Sustainable Groundwater Management
And… Nature-based solutions!
Relationships:
Ag/Urban/Tribal/Env—it could happen
Not: icebergs, pipelines from Great Lakes & Mississippi, or massive desal from Mexico….yet.
Editor's Notes
Good afternoon. Delighted to be here with all of you.
Famous Mike Dettinger chart from USGS. Would love to see the China version
Hard to read—but the darker it is, the more variation, unpredictability year to year
This is defining characteristic statewide.
And, it does show a bit of the west.
Mega drought: 1200 years or whatever you pick. It is a whammy.
Colorado River—40 million dependent
23 year drought
Lake Mead and Lake Powell lower than anytime since filled in middle of last century
7 States, 10 or 30 tribes depending on how you count it
2 countries
Sierras in CA—East and West: in and out of drought for decade. Mine 2012 or 13 to 2017. Then drought of record; just had another that was worse and we may still be in, though recordbreaker snowpack. Can explain why.
Exacerbated by years of GW overdraft to tune of 2-3 MAF a year.
Climate change as gamechanger
Most importat slide I have. It’s our future we need to be thinking about rather than the past as roadmap.
This is our future under climate change—WATER IS BLEEDING EDGE OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION;
Now to be clear—we’re not talking mega water, but we are talking big improvements in water quality and in supply, and more importantly in the timing of supply.
Data growing; still in progress—but I’ll give you exaples shortly of water agencies stepping up to invest in upper watershed management and ecological restoration to take out excess trees (that yup drink water but it is more complicated than that). More important is to take out the overgrowth of fuel that leads to massive conflagrations that send toxics and sediment into streams, reservoirs and communities. Meadow restoration, allows water to slow and spread and sink into the ground, creating natural firebreaks, but also slowing the flow of water that moves underground and returns to streamflow later—replacing some part of the timing benefit we get from the snow pack we are going to lose. For the reasons I explained earlier, that timing aspect is crucial.