Change is coming to transportation – Advisian’s Zoltan Maklary explains why doing nothing will not be an option.

1. Doing nothing is
not an option
Zoltan Maklary
November 2016

2. Changes in the way we view, adopt
and use mobility are an opportunity
to improve our cities, their liveability
and our economy; it will help us to
meet the challenges of population
growth, urbanisation and sustainability

3. The past and present

4. Historically speaking…

5. Cars that provide point-
to-point travel at an
individual level.
Rail that provides mass
transit between key
destinations.
Light rail and buses
that service the
journeys in between.
When we think of transport challenges, we generally think in terms
of modes instead of journeys (e.g. very fast rail, light rail, bus rapid
transit etc.)
Modes in the traditional transport hierarchy

6. With regard to our expenditure
and planning, we tend to focus
more on the physical asset
(e.g. roads, rail, terminals) and
adding more capacity to these.

7. This is unsustainable.
We need to start
thinking differently…

8. We need to move from
thinking about vehicles
and modes to end-to-end
journeys for people
and business.

9. This need is being driven
by population growth,
urbanisation, and shifts
in people’s expectations.

10. But our legislation and
regulations are based on
the past, and changes can
take years to implement.

11. The Uber response was
reactive, disaggregated
and slow despite Australia
being a late adopter.

12. Funding for public infrastructure is
stretched and at breaking point, with
no easy and obvious alternatives.

13. How do we fund our
transport infrastructure?
How do we manage
congestion?
And so, we have 2 burning
questions…
1
2

14. The future of mobility

15. Ridesharing
Autonomous vehicles
Mobility as a service
…are just the
beginning
Advisian / 15

16. Transportation will no longer be
about modes and car ownership –
point-to-point, seamless mobility
that can be changed to suit people’s
needs will become the future.

17. The Internet of Things will connect
in real time:
• Devices
• Infrastructure
• People
• Government
• Business
Connectivity will increase
Internet of
Things

18. Autonomous
vehicles will…
represent a further step-change
in reduced car ownership, while
preserving independence and
relieving the load on fixed
public transport.
Advisian / 18

19. But to capture the benefits
of AVs our infrastructure
must evolve…

20. Line markings
Lane size/structure
Bridges
Tunnels
Intersection design
Lane merging
Lighting
Signage
Our traditional transport
infrastructure includes:
Advisian / 20

21. Future transport infrastructure
will need to be Smart
2017
Vehicle to
Vehicle
2018
Vehicle to
Device
2018
Vehicle to
Pedestrian
2018
Vehicle to
Home
2018
Vehicle to
Grid
2018
Vehicle to
Infrastructure
To be truly effective and capture the benefits autonomous
vehicles – connectivity is essential. This requires an on going
investment into upgrading and adding new infrastructure,
introducing more complexity.
Evolution of technology from vehicle to ‘anything’

22. The driverless car – complexity?
The eco system of the driverless car is full of considerations,
but equally rich with opportunity
- Cost
- Network effects and after-market
- Driver education
- Technology
- Consumer pull
Network density and after-market -
Legislation -
Infrastructure investment -
Consumer acceptance -
Geopolitical factors -
Self-driving operation considerations

23. Autonomous evolution or revolution
What else will go autonomous?
Taxis Shuttles Trains Trucks Ships Planes
We are moving from a past where ‘autonomous’ meant tightly controlled,
highly regulated and high-cost infrastructure, to one that is unconstrained,
ever changing, open, and driven by the community and industry.

24. What and when they will come online
– no one really knows
The Past
Driver Only1
Today
Assisted
2020-2025
Highly automated
2017-2020
Partially Automated
2026-2030
Fully automated
2
3
4
5
From now till 2040+ we are in transition - arguably a mixed fleet will exist for decades

25. Why do we need
to change?

26. Advisian / 26
Population growth
and urbanisation

27. Advisian / 27
Safety (remove the human)

28. Advisian / 28
Economics –
productivity benefits
from automation

29. Accessibility and rapid
development of technology

30. Shrinking sources
of government
revenue from fuel
excise, etc.

31. Advisian / 31
Sustainability

32. How do we change?

33. React Provide
guidance
Lead the
transition
To date most governments - if not all - have followed option 1,
some option 2, and very few option 3

34. Driving the change

35. Education InfrastructureLegislation
and
Regulation
futurenow

36. Inform the public
Get them comfortable
Sell the benefits
Identify the risks and how they
will be eliminated
Education

37. Key areas to address:
• Roads rules governing vehicle
control
• Trials
• Vehicle safety and standards
• Data and cybersecurity
• Market driven technology and
innovation
• Harmonisation across States
Legislation and
Regulation

38. A planned proactive and communicated strategy is needed
Industry self
regulation
Codes of practice National guidelines Legislative solution
Governments
oversee deployment
and safety assurance
Increasing level of government control
Differing levels of government control in autonomous vehicle deployment (source: NTC)

39. How will governments maintain and
improve transportation?
Is the option of adopting road user
charging for AVs the step-change
opportunity?
AVs will impact both existing and new
infrastructure
Infrastructure

40. And now?

41. We need to get involved
and lead the transition!
PLAY VIDEO