How technology is changing the face of the downstream sector.

1. www.advisian.com
Jamie Silk | March 2018
Our uncertain energy future
How technology is changing the face of downstream

2. • A convergence of technologies
• Technologies impacting the real world
• Converging technologies: The X-Factor
• Delivering value for consumers
Overview
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 2

3. A convergence of technologies

4. The fourth industrial age
Computers
People
Automation
Physical
Automation
New Assets
Mental
Augmentation
The Internet
of Things
(IOT)
Distributed
LedgerTechnolo
gy
(DLT)

5. = Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning,
robotic process automation, augmented and virtual
reality (AR & VR)
Driving:
• Automated analysis and execution with
codified knowledge and rich data
• Simple delivery and use of knowledge
with voice AI and AR
• Cognitive jobs being redefined
Mental Augmentation
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 5

6. Dramatic impacts happening now
6
$8-10bn
Investment in AI
(2016, McKinsey)
60%
Of artificial
intelligence is
machine learning,
mostly supervised.
Before intelligence
can exist, learning
must take place
$60bn
Investment in
AR by 2020
95%
Reduction in new
ship inspection
times with AR
(US Navy)
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian

7. = Drones, robotics, autonomous vehicles,
energy storage, electric vehicles
Driving:
• Flexible, autonomous and
distributed resources
Enabled by:
• Dynamic edge processing
• Autonomous data collection
and execution
Physical Automation
7 Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian

8. Dramatic impacts happening now
8
40%
Of all
computing
could happen at
the edge in the
next couple of
years (IDC)
$36
/MWh LCOE PV
+ storage
(Colarado)
indicating
potential
$2.5bn
Annual payment
by Australian
networks to
consumers to
use DERs in
2050 (ENA/ CSIRO)
Autonomous
drones and
intelligent data
processing has
taken off. Watch
for swarm robots!
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian

9. = Low cost sensors, connected and
dynamically responsive devices;
Low power, low cost
communications
Enabling:
• Mental augmentation (data)
• Physical automation
• Edge processing
Internet of things
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian9

10. Scaling now
10
35%
Of energy and
utilities sector
using IOT, 20%
growth
(Vodafone IOT
Barometer)
84%
Of energy and
utilities adopters
increased IOT
use in 2017
(Vodafone IOT
Barometer)
8.4
Billions of
connected
devices, 30%
growth (Gartner)
31
Connected
devices in an
average
Australian home
by 2021
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian

11. = aka Blockchain: an immutable, permanent, trusted
ledger of “transactions or events”; authorised to be
accessible to anyone over time
Creates opportunity for:
• Massive shift in collaborative working
• Eliminating high cost “trust” intermediaries
• New services and automation through smart
contracts
• Value is (currently) in enabling a new business
model (as high costs and latency)
Distributed Ledger Technology
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 11

12. Great focus and potential but how long to take off?
12
2nd
Is blockchain’s
ranking as a
search on
Gartner (Feb 17)
6
Minutes taken
for centrality to
raise US$80m in
its January ICO
X
Explosion of use
cases
$3.1trn
Business value
add from
blockchain
(Gartner, 2030)
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian

13. Technologies impacting
the real world

14. Technology opportunities will change:
• Assets. How they’re
owned and managed.
• Operations. Networks,
distributed resources,
how work is executed.
• Consumers. What they
do, want (services), will
pay for?

15. • Predictive and collaborative
lifecycle management with
rich data shared across asset
owners, operators and
manufacturers
• Flexible, fast to deploy assets
• Drives efficient optimised
asset service and renewals
Asset Management
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Low Cost
Sensors
Mental
Augmentation
IIOT/ Big Data
Energy
Storage
AI/ Machine
Learning
DLT
(Blockchain)

16. Real-time operating and asset data to test
failure hypothesis with a machine learning
platform
Asset failure analysis
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian16
Algorithm and recommended
asset/operational measures to
advise control room

17. Flexible Resources
World’s biggest battery
built in <100 days
• 60% bigger than the
previous one
• 129 MWh of capacity
17

18. • Automated, predictive field
interventions facilitated by
augmented reality
• Dynamic network operations
with real time ratings and
integrated Distributed Energy
Resources (DERs)
• Sweeping back office tasks
through automation
Network Operations
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 18
Low Costs
Sensors
IIOT/ Edge
Processing
Physical
Automation
(i.e. drones)
Augmented
Reality
AI/ Machine
Learning Robotic
Process
Automation

19. • Smart meter data triggering loop automation
(FLISR)
• Energy storage, industrial/commercial and
residential demand response (DERs) reducing
network constraints
• Connecting FLISR to DERs with localised grid
management
Automation in action
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Grid edge data processing of
3 billion data points daily

20. Drones used for:
• Fugitive gas emissions
• Pre/post storm AR visualisation
Enhancing physical automation
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Drone streams to data centre
where AI-enabled algorithm runs
4 million calcs/sec

21. AI determines conspiring factor
for acute risk; alerts field
supervision
Enhancing field safety
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 21

22. • Intelligently serve cost,
comfort and social needs
• Engage dynamic customers
and their connected assets
• Cut cost to serve, whilst
delivering new value to
consumers
For the consumer we can:
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 22
Robotic
Process
Automation
IIOT/ Edge
Processing
AI/Machine
Learning
DLT
(Blockchain)
Energy
Storage, PV
& EV
Physical
Automation

23. • “Alexa please have the house just cosy, cut some
carbon, and grab me some rush hour rewards”.
• Peer-to-peer and transactive grid enhancing
consumer value and engagement in NZ
• EV management and V2G pilots
• Energy communities and microgrids
Consumer in action
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 23
Solar
Buddies™

24. Converging technologies:
The X-Factor

25. Multiple technologies = compounding benefits
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Drone
inspection
Machine
Learning -
Exceptions
AI –
Patterns,
Defects
Auto generate
work orders,
schedule
resource
AR
enhances
field
operations
Blockchain
executes
multi-party
fulfilment

26. Optimising DERS across microgrids, network and markets
Connecting across domains compounds opportunity
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 26
Optimising a single
process chain adds
immediate value
Bringing in
external data can
enhance your
opportunity
We can reach out
beyond our own
resources
Optimising DERS
across microgrids,
network and
markets
Increasingly that
will tap in to other
industries
Smart cities are a
natural extension
of this

27. Security is the top consideration when choosing IOT devices
Connectivity may bring risks
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
Source: Vodafone IOT Barometer 2017
75%
Security/
privacy
74%
Network
coverage
65%
Data
throughout
62%
Fixed/per
connection
costs
58%
Battery life
57%
Transmission
delay
56%
Prices of
devices
27

28. Delivering value for consumers

29. • Automating intelligent networks
• Automating and enhancing field operations
• Using big data to optimise assets
• Enhancing automated, collaborative working
• New services intelligently helping consumers
• Cutting cost to serve with automated processing
What will drive efficiency
and enhance service?
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian 29

30. Whilst once more reshaping the grid
Our uncertain Energy Future | Advisian
Whilst once more reshaping the grid
The Sharing
Economy
The Internet
of Energy
Big Data and
Analytics
Consumer
Energy Assets
• 1910-55: Engineering and
changing consumer needs drove
connecting the distributed
generation to a national grid
• 1990s: Data processing and
economic change enabled
market reforms
• Today: Industry 4.0 and changing
consumer needs are driving the
Transactive Grid
30

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