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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Transport	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec...
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Transport	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
 ...
The	
  Funding	
  Challenge	
  
In	
  austere	
  financial	
  4mes	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  significant	
  challenge	
  for	
 ...
Transport	
  and	
  Society	
  
Transport	
  systems	
  need	
  to	
  contribute	
  to	
  suppor4ng	
  and	
  improving	
 ...
Increased	
  Proximity	
  
The	
  increase	
  in	
  physical	
  and	
  virtual	
  proximity	
  due	
  to	
  urbanisa4on	
 ...
Need	
  for	
  Change	
  
Technological	
  advances	
  and	
  fiscal	
  and	
  	
  
regulatory	
  measures	
  are	
  needed...
Driving	
  Economic	
  Growth	
  
Transport	
  infrastructure	
  investment	
  creates	
  employment	
  and	
  	
  
econom...
Different	
  Pathways	
  
The	
  developed	
  world	
  focus	
  will	
  be	
  on	
  growth	
  in	
  electric	
  and	
  hybr...
Future	
  OpCons	
  
Society	
  has	
  two	
  op4ons	
  rela4ng	
  to	
  mee4ng	
  demand	
  growth	
  –	
  	
  
‘predict	...
TransformaCon	
  Ahead	
  
The	
  move	
  into	
  the	
  motor	
  age	
  was,	
  over	
  a	
  period	
  of	
  decades,	
  ...
Triple-­‐Access	
  SoluCons	
  
Focus	
  should	
  be	
  upon	
  developing	
  a	
  balanced	
  triple-­‐access	
  system	...
Future	
  Proofing	
  
Greater	
  a^en4on	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  given	
  to	
  how	
  infrastructure	
  	
  
can	
  be	
 ...
Simplified	
  Last	
  Mile	
  Delivery	
  
Seamless,	
  integrated	
  and	
  shared	
  last-­‐mile	
  delivery	
  will	
  r...
Lessons	
  From	
  Large	
  CiCes	
  	
  
Smaller	
  ci4es	
  and	
  towns	
  will	
  increasingly	
  adopt	
  approaches	...
Changing	
  Travel	
  MoCvaCons	
  
Demographic	
  shias	
  and	
  technology	
  developments	
  influence	
  when	
  and	
...
In-­‐Built	
  Flexibility	
  
Recognising	
  that	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  perfect	
  transport	
  solu4on,	
  	
  
policy	...
Access	
  Unleashed	
  	
  
A	
  shia	
  of	
  focus	
  from	
  access	
  to	
  one	
  of	
  mobility	
  is	
  underpinned...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future of transport Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by Professor Glenn Lyons, UWE, Bristol

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The initial perspective on the Future of Transport kicked off the Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the initial view and is updated as we progress the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

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Future of transport Insights from Discussions Building on an Initial Perspective by Professor Glenn Lyons, UWE, Bristol

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Transport      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Prof.  Glenn  Lyons  |  Professor  of  Transport  and  Society  |  UWE  
  2. 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Transport  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.   Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  3. 3. The  Funding  Challenge   In  austere  financial  4mes  there  is  a  significant  challenge  for   governments  being  able  to  fund  the  maintenance  of  the  exis4ng     transport  system  and  investment  in  new  infrastructure.  
  4. 4. Transport  and  Society   Transport  systems  need  to  contribute  to  suppor4ng  and  improving     society  rather  than  only  serving  it  and  risking  unintended,     unan4cipated  and  unwelcome  consequences.  
  5. 5. Increased  Proximity   The  increase  in  physical  and  virtual  proximity  due  to  urbanisa4on     and  digital  connec4vity  is  transforming  society  and  the  car  is     becoming  a  background  func4onal  technology.  
  6. 6. Need  for  Change   Technological  advances  and  fiscal  and     regulatory  measures  are  needed  to  address  adverse     impacts  of  the  transport  system  and  its  use.    
  7. 7. Driving  Economic  Growth   Transport  infrastructure  investment  creates  employment  and     economic  flows  and  holds  the  promise  of  enabling  more     movement  and  in  turn  more  economic  ac4vity.  
  8. 8. Different  Pathways   The  developed  world  focus  will  be  on  growth  in  electric  and  hybrid-­‐fuel   vehicles  and  self-­‐driving  vehicles.  For  countries  with  less  advanced  transport   systems,  manufacturers  are  likely  to  deploy  established  technologies.  
  9. 9. Future  OpCons   Society  has  two  op4ons  rela4ng  to  mee4ng  demand  growth  –     ‘predict  and  provide’  (responding  to  expected  demand)  and     ‘decide  and  provide’  (shape  change  in  the  face  of  uncertain  future  needs).  
  10. 10. TransformaCon  Ahead   The  move  into  the  motor  age  was,  over  a  period  of  decades,     transforma4ve  for  society  and  for  transport.     Further  transforma4on  is  all  but  inevitable.  
  11. 11. Triple-­‐Access  SoluCons   Focus  should  be  upon  developing  a  balanced  triple-­‐access  system     of  transport,  physical  proximity  and  digital  connec4vity  system  that     may  transcend  the  tradi4onal  remits  of  government  departments.    
  12. 12. Future  Proofing   Greater  a^en4on  needs  to  be  given  to  how  infrastructure     can  be  ‘future  proofed’  and  made  ready  to     accommodate  the  needs  of  a  changing  society.  
  13. 13. Simplified  Last  Mile  Delivery   Seamless,  integrated  and  shared  last-­‐mile  delivery  will  replace     inefficient  compe44on  and  duplica4on  of  goods  distribu4on:  Efficiency  in   moving  things  will  be  as  important  as  efficiency  in  moving  people.  
  14. 14. Lessons  From  Large  CiCes     Smaller  ci4es  and  towns  will  increasingly  adopt  approaches  that     have  worked  in  larger  ci4es:  Mul4-­‐modal,  integrated  transport     op4ons  will  be  adapted  and  op4mised  for  midi  ci4es.        
  15. 15. Changing  Travel  MoCvaCons   Demographic  shias  and  technology  developments  influence  when  and  why     we  need  to  travel.  Mo4va4ons  for  work  and  leisure  mobility  blur  and  dynamic   pricing  and  the  sharing  economy  deliver  greater  efficiency  in  the  system.    
  16. 16. In-­‐Built  Flexibility   Recognising  that  there  is  no  perfect  transport  solu4on,     policy  makers  increasingly  bet  on  longer  term  op4ons  with  built-­‐in     adaptability  for  changing  technologies  and  infrastructure  use.  
  17. 17. Access  Unleashed     A  shia  of  focus  from  access  to  one  of  mobility  is  underpinned  by  both  an   increase  in  online  interac4on  and  a  decrease  in  personal  transport.  This  shia  in   focus  leads  to  more  technology-­‐enabled  business  model  innova4ons.  
  18. 18. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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