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DNV GL © 2013 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2013
BUSINESS AREA MARITIME – BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
June 2015
Disclaimer
Whilst care has been taken in the production of this analysis, no liability can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to
rely on the information contained herein.
DNV GL © 2013
MARKET SUMMARY ………………………..……………………………………
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ………………..……………………………..
CONTAINERSHIPS ……………..…………………………………………………
OIL & PRODUCT TANKERS ………………………………………………
BULK CARRIERS .…………..……………………………………………………….
OFFSHORE ….................…….…………………………………………………
FOCUS ON:
CRUISE VESSELS …….……………….…………………………………………..
MULTI PURPOSE VESSELS ……………………………………...............
3
5
6
12
18
25
33
32
DNV GL © 2013
Market Summary
16 June 20153
are substantially higher and are likely to remain satisfactory at
least until the end of the year. Also product tankers make
reasonable profit and their prospects remain positive. The LPG
players sit with a happy and self-confident smile, but with freight
rates reaching $100.000/day (for VLGC), it comes as no
surprise. Their LNG partners may have not been as lucky,
however big projects which start in the near future give them
confidence that they have played their cards well so far.
In the container segment, a whiff of optimism can be sensed, as
most of the operators have managed to return to profit.
The gloomy side of the table is certainly occupied by the dry bulk
segment. Slower growth of imports (particularly to China),
combined with a substantial oversupply of tonnage have literally
wiped out all of the profits. Uncontrolled contracting has started
to take its toll and it may take several years before this segment
recovers. The offshore players are sweating bullets as well. They
were winning the table for the past few years, but the current
low oil price and reduced E&P investments put them in a very
uncomfortable spot. Add a record high orderbook to the picture
and you can see that playing bluff is not an option either.
So there you have it. The cards are on the table. What you see is
what you get. Current sluggish NB contracting proves beyond
doubt, that we have a strong correction in the market. It doesn’t
mean that we are entering another recession and that everyone
is losing the game. The game, however, has just got a lot more
interesting!
Ever since the last recession, shipping in its strive for recovery
has followed various “fashion” trends. We have seen counter-
cyclical ordering, the growing role of private equity, an increased
interest in energy efficiency or a gradual shift towards the so
called “eco ships”. We have also experienced an unprecedented
development in the offshore industry, led by high oil prices
triggered by the presumption of a shortage of that commodity.
So what is next? Almost six months into the year, if we were to
describe the market in one word, that word would be
“correction”. It’s now time to lay the cards on the table and
prove who has got the strongest hand. So in 2015 we “call all-
in”. On the lucky side of the table we can certainly find oil and
gas tanker owners. Due to cheap oil, crude oil tanker earnings
What you see is what you get
GLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETS
GLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, Jan----MayMayMayMay
423
476
76
91
303
312
101
72
155
169
40
108
Dry Cargo
Tanker
Offshore
Container
Bulker
Other
2014 (Jan-May)
2015 (Jan-May)
DNV GL © 2013
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020201520142013201220112010
Market Summary
16 June 20154
Our latest forecast results show a dramatic reduction of number
of new contracts, in 2015 falling to just a little over 1,800 ships
and MOU (incl. small tonnage). If it comes true, it would be one
of the lowest years in the past 15 years. We expect a small and
gradual recovery end of this year. It is driven mainly on the
presumption that shipyards will be forced to further reduce
prices, thus attracting potential investors.
Looking into specific ship segments, we can clearly see uneven
developments. We remain positive for contracting within the
larger crude oil tankers as well as products tankers (LR1, LR2
possibly LR3). In the gas sector, although already burdened with
large orderbook, we still see a possibility for further contracting.
It is mainly driven by a positive future outlook in this market.
The container operators remain active, however we see a trend
where liner operators target the largest ships (20+k TEU),
whereas the non-operating owners choose from 8-13k TEU
segment, offering a greater flexibility for deployment.
On the other hand, we see substantial difficulties in the dry bulk
sector, where supply/demand balance is widening. Reduced
shipments and relatively strong fleet development sends
shockwaves across the entire sector discouraging further
investment. The situation in the offshore sector isn’t any better.
Reduced investment, low capacity utilisation, combined with a
record high orderbook give very little hope for the recovery any
time soon.
What goes up, must gown down until it bounces back up again!
Shipbuilders are certainly not happy about the recent
developments. The contracting activity is far below their
expectations. During the first 5 months of 2015, only 640
contracts have been signed. It is even below the level we
experienced in 2009, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
Monthly average contracting has fallen to around 127 ships (incl.
MOUs).
Uneven dynamics in the market are well reflected by which ships
are being contracted nowadays. We clearly see a lot less activity
in the dry bulk and offshore segments, whereas ordering of oil,
gas and chemical tankers remains relatively vibrant. The
container segment is also active, mostly, although not
exclusively, within the larger ships.
Downhill slide
GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)
Historical data Forecast
DNV GL © 2013
PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX
120
80
40
750
500
250
201420132012 20152011201020092008
1.500
1.000
500
2014201320122011201020092008 2015
40
20
-20
2015201420132010 2011 2012
40
45
50
55
60
2011 2015201420122010 2013
Business Environment
Oil prices increased 25% in 2015 year-to-date
During the second half of 2014, the US dollar made significant
gains against the Euro and against the Japanese Yen. This trend
continued in the first five months of 2015.
For the Chinese Yuan Renminbi and the South Korean Won, the
situation remained more or less unchanged.
Brent crude oil stood at US$50 per barrel at the start of this
year, and has increased since then by 25% to the current price
of US$63,-.
The 380 cst Rotterdam reached its lowest point in January 2015
with US$250 per tonne, down 55% compared to the high level of
US$ 570 per tonne in January 2014.
OIL / BUNKER STEEL / SCRAP
Bunker
$/tonne
Crude
$/bbl
USD
EXCHANGE RATES
380cst R’dam Crude (Brent)
Index
Avg. Demolition Price VLCC (USD/ldt)
Global Steel Price (USD/t)
%
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
5
USD/KRW
USD/CNYUSD/EUR
USD/JPN
DNV GL © 2013
DNV GL © 2013
Executive Summary| Containerships
Demand for the large container vessels (all vessels above 12,000
TEU) comes from the Asia-Europe trade. Newbuilding demand is
expected to stay relatively high, due to the need from liner
companies to save slot costs. The major alliances are now in
place, and further ordering is expected. Since scrapping is non-
existent for this segment, yearly fleet growth rates are high.
Containerships 8,000-12,000 TEU are more and more deployed
on non-mainlane trades. Once the new Panama Canal has
opened, additional deployment opportunities are expected.
Contracting levels are expected to increase, and also here,
scrapping does not play a role. Yearly fleet growth levels are
expected to remain high.
For containerships 3,000-8,000 TEU, demand is expected to
increase after the opening of the new Panama Canal (for the
wide-beam designs). In addition, trade growth in the smaller
North–South routes, intra Asian and other non-mainlane trades
support future growth. Scrapping activity is expected to keep
fleet growth to minimum levels.
For the smallest containerships below 3,000 TEU, demand
growth in the future is expected to come from the intra-Asian
network of routes and the North–South routes. Although
contracting levels are expected to pick up, scrapping levels are
too high to result in a positive fleet growth in the mid term.
The most recent forecast for the 2015 containership fleet growth
is around 7% (TEU based), compared to a global containerized
trade growth of 5,7%. Fleet capacity expansion is going to take
place predominantly in the segment of the largest
containerships. For next year however, fleet growth is expected
to reach a much lower 5,5%, whereas trade growth is predicted
to increase to 6,4%. Despite some mixed signals about the
strength of the 2015 Asia–Europe trade growth recently, the
longer term growth expectations for containerised cargo are
optimistic.
The ongoing trend of building even larger containerships shows
no sign of slowing down and recently, Maersk Line announced
that it plans to build a further 11 Triple-E class vessels, with an
option for six more.
CONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPS
The trend of mega containership is expected to
continue
7
DNV GL © 2013
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20202018201620142012201020082006200420022000
In its “World Economic Outlook”, the IMF forecast global growth
of 3.5% in 2015 (unchanged from its last update in January) and
3.8% in 2016, slightly stronger than it had previously expected.
Earlier, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) cut its forecasts for
global trade growth this year to 3.3%, down from 4%.
Global containerized trade is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2015,
which would mean a slight increase compared to the 2014
increase of 5.3%. In 2016, trade is expected to grow by 6.4% to
reach 192,5 million TEU at the end of the year.
For 2015, trade on the mainlanes Far East–US and Far East-
Europe is expected to grow by 4.1% and 4.5% respectively and
for the Europe-US trade an increase of 3.0% is foreseen. The
North-South trades and non-mainlane East-West trades are
expected to grow by 6.5%-7.0% in 2015. All in all, stronger than
last years trade growth is expected for the Far East-US and the
North-South trades.
For the Asia-Europe trade, year-to-date volumes (Jan - end of
April 2015) recorded 4.7m teu, representing a 3.4% fall on the
4.9m TEU moved by Asia-Europe carriers during the first four
months of last year, according to Container Trades Statistics
(CTS). However, on a month on month basis, the figures suggest
that normality is returning to the trade following the usual
slowdown post-Chinese New Year.
%
p.a.
150
100
50
0
250
200
6,4%
5,7%
5,0%
5,3%
201520132011200920072005
Other
North-South
Non-Mainlane East-West
Transatlantic (EU-US)
Far East-Europe
Transpacific (FE-US)
mTEU
Containerships | Demand
ChinaUSA EUGlobal
GDP GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
GLOBAL CONTAINERISED TRADE
Healthy trade growth expected, but uncertainty still
exists
8
DNV GL © 2013
100
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
200
300
400
500
20152014201320122011
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
In the first five months of the year, containership newbuilding
contracting amounted to 72 vessel totalling 930,000 TEU. This
year, the focus is clearly on the ordering of very large
containerships. A total of 34 containerships with 18,000 TEU or
more have been ordered so far this year (compared to 13
vessels last year). On the other hand, so far in 2015 there were
no new contracts for containerships between 12,000-16,000 TEU
(last year, there were 34 new orders for this size segment).
For the full year 2015, the volume of new contracts is expected
to reach around 1,9 million TEU with 180 vessels. Focus is on
the liner companies, which are expected to continue ordering the
very largest containerships >16,000 TEU for the rest of the year.
Future levels of newbuilding contracting are based on healthy
containerised trade growth expectations for the years to come
and the continuation of lowering slot costs per transported
container. This could lead to a gradual increase in the yearly
contracting volumes from 1,6 mTEU in 2016 to 2,1 mTEU in
2020.
The total idle containership fleet reached 1,8% or 350,000 TEU
at the start of May 2015. Compared to the start of the year, this
means an increase of more than 100,000 TEU. Although the total
number of vessels in layup did not change significantly, there are
relatively more mid-sized containerships in layup (3,000-7,500
TEU segment) and less smaller vessels (< 3,000 TEU).
mTEU
Containerships | Supply
(EXPECTED) CONTRACTING
Strong focus on large vessel newbuilding contracting
9
<3k TEU
3-8k TEU
8-12k TEU
12K-16K TEU
>16K TEU
<3k TEU
3-7,5k TEU mTEU (right axis)
>7,5k TEU
mTEUVessels
IDLE CONTAINERISHIP FLEET
DNV GL © 2013
For the containership sector, 2015 will be characterized by
another year with high volume deliveries. This is the direct result
from the extraordinary newbuilding contracting level in 2013
totalling 2.0 mTEU.
The largest part of the TEU capacity that will be delivered this
year will come from the 8,000-12,000 TEU size segment,
followed by the largest vessels in the +16,000 TEU segment.
Delivery expectations for 2016 are much lower, coming from the
dip in newbuilding contracting that occurred in 2014 (1,1mTEU).
This will result in a slower fleet growth in 2016, compared to
other years. Yearly deliveries are expected to average 1,6mTEU
in the 2017-2020 period. However, the highest impact on the
demand/supply balance is the fact that deliveries from the
largest vessels (+16,000 TEU) will increase their share in the
total deliveries, increasing the delivery volume more than
proportional, due to their size.
The containership fleet still is relatively young, at least the larger
size segments. As a result, scrapping expectations for the 2015-
2020 period are expected to be around 275,000 TEU per year
and apply to the two smallest size segments of the fleet only.
Fleet growth (in TEU capacity) for the 2015-2020 period is
expected to be around +6% per year with an exception for this
year. Due to strong deliveries and relatively low scrappings, the
containership fleet is expected to expand by +7% in 2015.
mTEU
mTEU
Containerships | Supply
EXPECTED DELIVERIES & REMOVALS
FLEET DEVELOPMENT
+6% yearly fleet growth expected for 2015-2020
10
2,0
0,0
0,5
1,5
1,0
-0,5
2011 20122010 20152013 2014 20192018 202020172016
12K-16K TEU
<3k TEU8-12k TEU>16K TEU
3-8k TEU
5
0
10
20
15
25
201320122011 2016 201820172014 2015 2019 20202010
12K-16K TEU
8-12k TEU
3-8k TEU
>16K TEU <3k TEU
DNV GL © 2013
Containerships | Prices & Chartering
200
150
100
50
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Containership freight rates started to drop quite suddenly in the
second quarter of 2015 on all of the benchmark SCFI trades (the
average drop for the four routes is -35%). This occurred after
the latest round of general rate increases proposed by liner
companies were not accepted by the market.
On the contrary, timecharter rates for containerships have
increased across all size ranges in the Jan-May 2015 period. The
containership timecharter rate index increased 30% in the first
five months of this year.
Possible explanations for the diverse direction of rates must be
found in a slowdown in parts of the cascading process and a
contraction in the charter market fleet.
mUSD .000 USD
per day
Newbuilding prices for container vessels remained unchanged so
far in 2015. Considering the newbuilding contracting volume, this
comes as no surprise. And as long as the orders keep on coming
this year, there will probably not be much price movement.
Current newbuilding prices range between $31 million for a
2,600-2,900 TEU vessel and $154 million for a 18,500-19,000
TEU vessel, of course heavily dependant on the vessel
specifications. The latest newbuilding vessels by Maersk for
instance are priced at around $160m per vessel, more than
others of similar capacity ordered in recent months. Some of the
features of the new ships include higher lashing bridges and
strengthened hatch covers to allow taller container stacks.
0
2
4
5
3
6
7
1
20132010 2011 2012 20152014
SCFI Shanghai-WC America Freight Rate $/FEU
SCFI Shanghai-Med Freight Rate $/TEU
SCFI Shanghai-Europe Freight Rate $/TEU
SCFI Shanghai-US EC Freight Rate $/FEU
4,800 TEU (Wide Beam)
2,500 teu Geared
18,5K-19K TEU
13K-14K TEU
6,600-6,800 teu
8,500-9,100 TEU
NEWBUILDING PRICES FREIGHT RATES (Shanghai Shipping Exchange)
Containership spot rates take a dive. Timecharter
rates go up and newbuilding prices still unchanged.
11
DNV GL © 2013
DNV GL © 2013
Executive Summary| Oil & Products Tankers
(particularly in the MR segment) may start to put pressure on
the rates. Nevertheless, we still believe in good performance at
least until the end of 2015.
Despite strong fundamentals supporting the market, there are
also several factors which need to be addressed. First of all, the
robust growth of shipments is triggered by low oil prices, which
results in stockpiling as well as, it supports refinery margins,
encouraging higher throughput. Those are not the drivers
coming from increased oil consumption, but simply from taking
an advantage of the current market environment.
Secondly, as we expect a substantial number of deliveries for
2016 and 2017, strong rates are going to gradually come under
pressure. As there is only limited potential for scrapping (or
conversions), both crude oil and products fleet growth will
accelerate, thus substantially increasing the supply of tonnage.
A rapid increase of refinery capacity in the Middle East, India and
China is another interesting factor. Since there are more
products generated in that regions, it is reasonable to suspect
that it will lead to reduced exports of crude oil and increased
exports of products. As volumes are likely to grow, the long-
range products tankers are the obvious “suspects” to benefit
from that change.
There are more factors to take into account, such as political
unrest in Libya and the relaxing of Iranian sanctions. It is hard to
predict their outcome, but they will play an important role too.
While the entire merchant shipping benefits from the reduced
fuel expenses, crude oil tankers seem to have hit the jackpot!
Besides the savings made on bunkers, they have also been
blessed with a substantial growth of demand for tonnage. Cheap
oil has triggered off an intensive stockpiling (particularly in Asia),
which resulted in an increased number of fixtures for the crude
tankers. As a result the freight rates have gone up substantially.
Average 1 year TC rates are at least twice as high as they were a
year ago. A strong spot market keeps oil tankers busy and
owners are reluctant to offer their ships for storage. Relatively
low deliveries of new tonnage in 2015 will most likely keep
earnings high for another year.
Products tankers continue to perform well, however a large
orderbook and subsequently growing number of deliveries.
Full steam ahead!
OIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERS
13
DNV GL “Everbright”
delivered 2010,
156 717 DWT, 274.50m Loa
DNV GL © 2013
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
2014201220102008 2009 2011 2013 2015
After the latest meeting, OPEC announced they would maintain
their current crude oil production, leaving the production target
of 30mbd unchanged. In fact, during the past 3 months
production was over 31mbd. As we face a possible lift of Iranian
sanctions, the situation may get even more interesting. Iran
claims that it is able to almost immediately add another 0.5mbd
of production, should the sanctions are lifted. In addition, yet
another 0.5mbd will be added within the next 6 months, as Iran
is willing to restore all its previous export patterns. Add another
38mb of oil currently stored on tankers and we are likely to see a
lot more oil in the international markets by the end of the year.
The sudden increase of available oil will not directly translate into
much more robust demand for tonnage, however we still expect
a good growth in demand in 2015. For crude oil tankers it is
forecast to reach 2.3% (DWT terms), whereas for products
tankers it will increase up to 4.2% y-o-y.
There are visible changes of trade patterns. The US shale
production forces the traditional US suppliers to find new
markets. Latin America started to export larger volumes to Asia.
West-African oil goes to Europe and Asia rather than to the US.
There is also a new trade from the US back to coastal Canada
(due to free trade agreement). Despite Canadian oil being sold to
the US, Canada’s demand for this commodity is generated
mainly in the coastal areas, thus seaborne crude is preferred.
Million
bpd
mDWT
Solid tonnage demand growth
Oil & Products Tankers | Demand
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND
TANKER DEMAND DEVELOPMENT
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
20162014201220102008
y-o-y change in %
mio bpd
y-o-y change product in %y-o-y change crude in %
Product tanker demandCrude tanker demand
14
DNV GL © 2013
Driven by the strong fundamentals, contracting of oil tankers
remains vibrant. As newbuilding prices are still low, investors are
keen to take on new projects. As many as 64 crude and 38
product tankers have been placed in the shipyards during the
first 5 months. In addition, it is worth mentioning, that there
have been at least 14 newbuilding contract conversions, from
capesize bulkers into LR1 and LR2 tankers and there are likely
more to come in the second half of the year.
According to the DNVGL forecast, another 47 crude and 120
products and chemical/oil tankers are to be contracted towards
the end of the year. The total expected volume in 2015 (incl.
conversions) is expected to reach around 280 contracts
(32mDWT). Looking beyond 2015, our expectations for the
sector remain positive, however in 2016 the total number of
contracts is expected to be below this years result (264). It is
mainly due to lower expectations in the MR tanker contracting,
triggered by already a large orderbook in this segment. We
remain positive for the larger ships (LR1, LR2 and possibly LR3)
as the volumes of cargo are expected to grow robustly. Based on
that fact, we expect increased competition of larger vessels
against typically used MR tankers in some trades.
In the crude sector we expect similar number of contracts for
VLCC, whereas in the Suezmax sector, due to recent extensive
contracting we forecast a significant slowdown in 2016.
mDWT
mDWT
Contracting – looking into the crystal ball
Oil & Products Tankers | Supply
EXPECTED DELIVERIES & REMOVALS
(EXPECTED) CONTRACTING
0
30
40
20
10
20142013201220112010 202020192015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil Tankers Product/Chemical Tankers
-20
30
10
-10
20
40
60
0
50
202020192010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil Tankers Product/Chemical Tankers
15
DNV GL © 2013
15
11
15
1717
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax Handysize
300
100
200
0
700
600
500
400
20202019201820162015 201720142013201220112010
If we look at the demand/supply ratio, it seems like most of the
oil tanker segments are well balanced. On the crude side, the
demand for tonnage is a notch ahead of the expected fleet
growth, providing an extra boost for freight rates. When we look
beyond the current year, we must not underappreciate coming
deliveries, which in 2016 will be much higher than in 2014 and
2015. This will certainly bring a cooling effect to the earnings.
On the product side, the balance is slightly worse although yet
not alarming. The fleet is going to grow 1% faster than demand
for tonnage. As already mentioned before, we are particularly
worried about 245 vessels strong MR orderbook. Many of those
ships were contracted on a speculative basis and thus may
struggle to find employment once being delivered. In addition,
on the longer hauls, LR1 tankers will gradually try to squeeze
their smaller brothers out of business, by providing better
economies of scale.
The oil tanker orderbook contains 841 ships corresponding to
75.6 mDWT. It represents 8% and 14% of the existing fleet
respectively. The current fleet consists of 11,026 ships, which
have an accumulated tonnage of 526.9 mDWT.
In 2015, the crude fleet is expected to grow by 1.1% (vs.
demand of 2.3%) whereas the products tanker fleet will grow by
5.6% (vs demand of 4.2%).
mDWT
Oil & Products Tankers | Supply
FLEET DEVELOPMENT
Order book versus fleet [in %]
Product/Chemical TankersCrude Oil Tankers
Fleet in balance
16
DNV GL © 2013
Oil & Products Tankers | Prices & Chartering
Over the past 3 months, oil tankers earnings remained high,
averaging around $33,600/day. It is a little less than in the
beginning of the year, but still very satisfactory indeed.
Due to a general fall in the contracting activity, newbuilding
prices started to deteriorate, which creates an additional
incentive for further investment. VLCC costs around 95.5 mUSD,
Suezmax 64.5 mUSD, whereas Aframax 53.0 mUSD (55.0 mUSD
for a LR2). Second hand prices have remained pretty much
unchanged. The 5yo/NB price ratio hoovers around 84%-88%.
Demolition activity is limited to the small product/chemical
tankers only. In the larger sector there were only a hand-full of
vessels sold for scrapping in the year to date.
000.USD
Per day
Million
USD
TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING & SECOND HAND PRICES
000.USD
per day
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS
Good earnings, falling NB prices and no demolition
40
30
20
10
50
60
70
2012 2013 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2014
Handy
Panamax
Afra
Suez
VLCC
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
20122011201020092008 201520142013
5yrs
Handy
5yrs
Aframax
5yrs
VLCC
20
60
40
120
80
100
2010 20132012 201420112008 20152009
VLCC AfraSuez
17
DNV GL © 2013
DNV GL © 2013
Executive Summary| Bulk Carriers
19
China’s coal imports fell 42% y-o-y in 1Q2015 and imports
appear to be heavily undermined this year by China shifting
away its focus from polluting, coal-fired power plants to
renewables and cleaner sources of energy.
Meanwhile, Chinese iron ore imports are still expected to expand
firmly by around 6% despite weak domestic steel demand.
Expansion of low-cost Australian supply should displace some
domestic Chinese production volumes in the current low price
environment and boost the seaborne trade.
On the supply side, we have seen a record number of
demolitions so far in 2015, particularly in the capesize segment
where over 50 ships (not all officially reported) have been
scrapped. The average demolition age has fallen and if this trend
continues, many more recently built vessels are likely to face a
similar fate. However, deliveries are expected to reach 60M DWT
in 2015 and 43M DWT in 2016 which will continue to put
pressure on the supply side.
The recent slowdown in Chinese demand has lowered down
market’s expectations, demonstrated by the conversion of some
dry bulk vessels to tankers in a desperate attempt by owners to
return to profitability. It is estimated that in 2015 ytd, as many
as 15 newbuilding orders for capesize bulk carriers were changed
into tanker orders. Growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade is
likely to slow in 2015 following estimated expansion of 4% in
2014. Currently, dry bulk trade is expected to increase by 2,4%
which is below expectation at the beginning of the year.
The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s
economic slowdown in 1Q2015 and together with the oversupply
of ships across all sectors; earnings have been pushed to
historical low levels.
Capesize average spot earnings (2010-built) reached a seven
year low of 4,444 USD/day in March which is below typical
operating cost level. Panamax earnings (2010-built) reached
6,856 USD/day while handymax (52K DWT) earnings averaged
around 6,000 USD/day. Overall, average bulk carrier earnings in
1Q2015 represented the lowest quarterly average since 4Q2001
and by May 2015, freight rates had shown no sign of
improvement.
During 1Q2015, the Chinese economy grew 7% y-o-y, which is
the slowest pace of growth since 2009. China's dry bulk imports
have taken a dramatic dive and the trend looks set to continue.
BULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERS
DNV GL bulk carrier “Ajax”
delivered 2006. 77,328 DWT. 225m loa
Eco-Conscious China keeps the market down
DNV GL © 201320
Iron ore spot prices fell 59% y-o-y in April to hit a ten year low
of less than 47 USD/T; far away from the 190 USD/T recorded in
2011. The two major Australian miners have targeted an
additional combined increase in production for 2015 of around
70m tonnes and the continued flow of iron ore should keep spot
prices depressed. China took measures in April to support the
domestic iron ore mining industry amidst falling prices, by
cutting power costs and halving the rate of resource tax iron ore
miners pay. This could eventually have a negative impact on the
trade. Exports to China from several countries are likely to ease
as smaller miners scale down production.
Therefore the latest projection for Chinese iron ore imports has
been revised down to an increase of 6% y-o-y totaling 971m
tonnes, which represent a much slower growth than the 15%
registered in 2014.
Chinese seaborne coal imports dropped 49% y-o-y in 1Q2015.
While Chinese coal powered generation fell 4% y-o-y during the
first quarter, hydro-electric generation increased 17% y-o-y in
the same period. Restrictions on coal quality will become stricter
mid-2015, as the government continues to attempt to reduce
urban air pollution. Global seaborne coal trade is expected to
decline to around 940m tonnes in 2015 despite strong projected
growth in Indian coal imports. Rising power demand, low coal
prices and issues surrounding domestic coal output is expected
to continue driving Indian demand.
Million
tonnes
Million
tonnes
Bulk Carriers | Demand
CHINESE SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS
CHINESE SEABORNE IRON ORE IMPORTS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
300
600
900
1.200
0
2013201220112010
%shares
2015 f.2014
% Others (RHS)
% Brazil (RHS)
% Australia (RHS)
Others
Brazil
Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
300
200
100
0
400
%shares
2015 f.20142013201220112010
Others
Australia
Indonesia
% Others
% Australia (RHS)
% Indonesia (RHS)
China’s economy moving away from industrial growth is
drawing the last air out of the dry bulk market
DNV GL © 201321
Recent high rates of scrapping and very low contracting are
providing some release on the supply side at the moment.
According to IHS Fairplay, during the first four months of 2015,
168 bulkers with a total of around 10.8 mDWT have been sold
for demolition. Other sources report up to 225 ships scrapped
with capesizes carrying the lions share with more than 50
demolitions but figures are not yet confirmed. Younger tonnage
is being demolished and the average age at which bulker vessels
were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time
this century.
Only 89 orders have been placed in 2015 ytd. 27 handysizes, 21
ultramaxes and 18 kamsarmaxes have been contracted,
representing 75% of the bulkers ordered. Only few capesizes
have been contracted (4 orders) which is not really a surprise in
a market where earnings are below operating cost, but a timely
relief to investors with ships on the orderbook. Around 350
bulkers are forecast to be ordered this year, down from 765 last
year. 6.1 mDWT (240 ships) has been delivered so far. In the
handymax sector, most of the deliveries were ultramax bulkers
with 21 ships delivered. 27 handysizes, 18 kamsarmaxes, 4
VLBC as well as 4 capesizes also entered the fleet in 2015 ytd.
Deliveries are expected to reach 60 mDWT in 2015 (compared to
47.7 mDWT last year) and 43 mDWT in 2016 which will continue
to put pressure on the supply side.
mDWT
mDWT
Bulk Carriers | Supply
(EXPECTED) DELIVERIES & REMOVALS
(EXPECTED) CONTRACTING
-40
120
80
40
0
201820152012 20142013 2017201620112010 20202019
120
100
80
20
40
60
0
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
Capesize Handymax
VLBC HandysizePanamax
VLBC* > 210.000 dwt Capesize 100-210.000 dwt Panamax 65-100.000 dwt Handymax 40-65.000 dwt Handysize 10-40.000 dwt
*contains Ore Carriers (avg 250.000 dwt)
Orders plunge and rise in scrapping gives hope to dry
bulk misery
Handymax
Panamax
Capesize
HandysizeVLBC
DNV GL © 201322
As of 1st of May 2015, the dry bulk fleet comprises 11,370 ships
(758 mDWT). Handysizes (2999 ships) and supramaxes (1946
ships) represent the biggest sectors in numerical terms. Firm
demolition volumes during the first months of 2015 has meant
that the capsize fleet at the start of May was steady compared to
the start of the year. The sluggish growth in the handysize fleet
(+2,4% in 2015 ytd) is partly due to the drop in deliveries. While
the handysize fleet remains one of the oldest sector on average
in the bulk carrier fleet (with 23,3% of handysize vessels aged
20 years and above, compared to 9,2% of handymaxes),
handysize demolition volumes have not picked up as strongly as
in the larger vessel sectors.
The current orderbook of bulk carriers stands today at 1,643
ships (136.6 mDWT), 200 fewer ships than at the beginning of
2015. 492 ultramaxes, 363 handysizes and 299 kamsarmaxes
are currently on order which represent 70% of the total dry bulk
orderbook in numerical terms.
At the end of 2014, the bulk carrier orderbook represented
20,7% of the existing fleet in DWT terms. In 2015 ytd, the ratio
is down to 18% which is releasing some pressure on the supply
side and a step forward to the road of recovery. The orderbook is
still casting a shadow over subdued demand but recent
developments on the supply side are at least providing some
hope for a more balanced market.
mDWT
Bulk Carriers | Supply/Demand
FLEET DEVELOPMENT
YEAR-ON-YEAR FLEET CHANGES IN % (DWT)
800
600
400
200
201220112010 20202019201820172016201520142013
Handysize
Handymax
Panamax
Capesize
VLBC
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202012
HandymaxVLBC
Capesize Handysize
Panamax
Some positive developments are taking shape on the
supply side
VLBC* > 210.000 dwt Capesize 100-210.000 dwt Panamax 65-100.000 dwt Handymax 40-65.000 dwt Handysize 10-40.000 dwt
*contains Ore Carriers (avg 250.000 dwt)
DNV GL © 2013
Bulk Carriers | Prices & Chartering
23
shipyards have started to retreat.
Capesize newbuilding price is now down to 50M USD compared
to 54M USD four month ago. Resale value and 5 year old prices
started to fall as well, reaching 47M USD and 33M USD
respectively in May. In secondhand sales, activity continues to
gain ground, with a lot of interest gathering around fairly modern
and resale capesizes. In general though there are still a number
of owners that seem to be finding it difficult to cope with the new
price reality being made every day. And although price drops
have slowed in May compared to what was being witnessed at
the beginning of the year, there still seems to be room for
further discounts. 5 year old capsizes are now priced at 34M USD
and 5 year old panamaxes at 17M USD.
.000 USD
per day
Million
USD
Spot capesize rates averaged 3,000 USD/day in March and went
as low as 2,625 USD/day on the 27th of March. This is almost
half of the rates seen at the end of 2014. The Panamax spot
rates started the year at 5,718 USD/day, went below 4,000
USD/day in March but are now up to 4,438 USD/day. Anaemic
demand growth is here to stay, especially as the trade
development in coal and iron ore into China is expected to
decline further. Hence, no noticeable recovery in freight rates
should be expected this year. We may see some improvement in
earnings through 2016 but this is unlikely to be sufficient for
reaching breakeven.
With banks reluctant to finance dry bulk newbuildings, in the
back of the market’s worst performances in decades and ship
owners finding it hard to justify such moves, prices offered from
ONE YEAR TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING & SECOND HAND PRICES
60
100
80
0
40
20
120
2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152008 20102009
Handymax
Handysize
Capesize
Panamax
0
100
80
60
120
40
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520082007
Capesize
Handymax (61K)5 yrs Cape
Panamax
5 yrs P’max
61K Resale Prices
Dry bulk freight rates at abysmal levels and
newbuilding prices started to fall
DNV GL © 201324
Benefiting from China’s leading role in the shipbuilding industry
and the ordering boom in the mid-2000, Chinese designers have
come into the spotlight and are now indispensable partners to
Chinese shipbuilders. If we look at the current orderbook of bulk
carriers in China by design (data coverage of around 83%),
foreign designs account for only 20,6% in May 2015.
Chinese “state-owned” designers are dominating the dry bulk
orderbook in China, accounting for around 56% of orders and are
adopted by both state-owned and private yards. They provide a
wide range of designs, though most orders are in the handymax
sector, where SDARI provides the ‘Dolphin 64’ ultramax and in
the panamax sector with SDARI ‘KMAX 82’ kamsarmax design.
SDARI alone, accounts for 50,5% of all orders, across 38 yards.
Chinese “yards affiliated” designers, which are linked to
particular yards, have the tendency to focus more on the bigger
sectors, with the larger yards more likely to take orders for the
bigger units. Around 49,2% of bulkers currently on order and
linked to Chinese yards designers are capesizes and 30% are
VLBC. Shanghai Waigaoqiao, which has the largest capesize
orderbook globally, has adopted its own design. As Chinese
yards build their brands they tend to improve their design
capabilities by setting up their own designs. Yangzijiang Group
has acquired designer CS Marine, while AVIC group has bought
foreign designer Deltamarin.
Bulk Carriers | Designs in China
DRY BULK ORDERBOOK IN CHINA BY DESIGNER
ORDBOOK AT CHINESE STATE OWNED DESIGNER
A look at the dry bulk orderbook in China by designer
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Number
Unknown 171
Chinese private 9
Chinese yard affiliated 63
Foreign 210
Chinese state owned 567
VLBCCapesizePanamaxHandymaxHandysize
91,7%
CSDC (36 orders at 4 yards)
SDARI (520 orders at 38 yards)
6,3%
1,9%
MARIC (11 orders at 2 yards)
DNV GL © 2013
DNV GL © 2013
Executive Summary| Offshore
26
than a thousand rig years back in 2012 FY.
The number of scheduled deliveries for 2015 is as high as 880
vessels. It is 150 more than a record high number in 2010. Due
to weaker market, it is expected that slippage and cancellations
will be extraordinary. Most of the units under construction do not
have fixed contract, consequently going straight to lay-up.
Increased scrapping will play a major role in the fleet growth
reduction. As much as 32 floaters have already been announced
for scrapping this year.
A weak rig market combined with fewer rig movements has
really started to affect the OSV fleet. Lay-ups and reduced rates
have been announced in all regions. As many as 48 OSVs are
already laid up at the NCS.
Offshore contracting has nearly gone into a grinding stop. So far
there have been only 109 offshore contracts signed. The MOU
segment has been hit the hardest. The OSVs sector, despite
lower activity has so far performed better than expected.
Todays market is quite challenging, but still seems to be
manageable. Most units are on long term contracts and
seasonable maintenance makes contractors fairly busy. As
contracts end and new initiatives are put on hold, it is expected
to be even more depressing times ahead.
The offshore market continues to struggle as demand for rigs
and OSVs has collapsed and oversupply rises. The industry does
what it can to adopt to the new environment, with the help of
severe cost cuts and lay-ups.
Most figures are on a sharp decline. Some units have
experienced the day-rates being cut by 50%. Utilization rates
have been weakening since the beginning of 2014. The average
rate for drilling units stands at 82%. That’s down from 91% in
just 12 months and even lower than after the financial crises.
Fixing activity has also fallen. Just 135 rig years have been
contracted ytd. (Rig year: number of units ordered multiplied by
the individual length of the contract). Quite a drop from more
It will get worse before it gets better…
OFFSHOREOFFSHOREOFFSHOREOFFSHORE
The PSV NAO Protector
(former Blue Protector).
Delivered from Ulsteinvik in 2013.
Owned by NAO.
Classed by DNV GL.
DNV GL © 2013
Crude oil price has stabilized around $65/bbl. A solid increase
since the 2015 lowest level of $45,13 bbl (Jan 13th).
Global oil supply remains at a steep 3,2 mbd y-o-y. Reaching as
much as 95,7 mbd. It is mostly driven by a very high production
from the OPEC countries (31,21 mbd).
Global demand is projected at 1,1 mbd for 2015, reaching 93,6
mbd. Cold winter and steadily improving global economic growth
have been the main drivers.
Global offshore E&P are declining. Rystad Energy, a fast growing
consultancy company, expects that expenditures will continue to
fall until 2018.
Floaters utilization factor remains weak. Ultra-deep water
utilization rates have decreased to 88%. The jack ups have
declined to 85% for the large units and 75% for the small ones.
Fixing activity continues to be slow. There has been only 9
floaters and 22 jack-ups fixtures signed year to date, mostly
short term contracts. There has been a small boost during the
past weeks as contracts are renegotiated and extended. Three
contracts are also up for bidding in Norway with a value of up to
5 billion NOKs (Johan Sverdrup, Maria and Viper-Kobra). On the
other hand, termination of contracts are a hot issue. Petrobras
has as an example just terminated all five Schahin rigs, Pemex
has terminated several contracts as well. Low fixing activity and
many terminations making the total demand for rigs weak.
%
Rig years
Less rigs at work
Offshore | Demand
DRILLING UTILIZATION
GLOBAL FIXING ACTIVITY
800
200
600
400
1.000
20132011 20152005 2007 2009
Jack-upFloater
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
201020092008 20152014201320122011
Jack-Up <300ft MDU average
Jack-Up >300ftFloaters
27
DNV GL © 2013
Number of scheduled deliveries in 2015 remains record high. As
many as 880 vessels and units are up for delivery. Most likely
around 30% will not be delivered this year. Weak market is to be
blamed, however slippage and cancellations will bring some
“relief”. The first agreements between owners and yards for
postponed deliveries have been signed. Many more are
expected to come through.
For the first time in history, removals have started to accelerate
in the drilling segment. At the end of May 2015 as many as 32
floaters have been announced for scrapping.
Offshore contracting is expected to be low for in the coming
years. Weak demand, large orderbook and high level of
uncertainty will have a strong cool-down effect on the new
building market. Owners have more focus on cost-cutting than
expanding their fleets. During 2015 just three MOUs have been
contracted (only one drilling unit). The OSV fleet has performed
quite well, bearing the market situation. Globally, 106 vessels
have been contracted ytd. PSVs and AHTs have the largest share
with 39 and 38 contracts each.
The contracting is expected to gain momentum in the coming
years as market players start to position for the next up-cycle as
well as for the necessary replacement of the older tonnage.
Nevertheless, the oil price will dictate the future level of activity.
No. of
vessels
No. of
vessels
Record high level of slippage and cancellations
Offshore | Supply
(EXPECTED) DELIVERIES & REMOVALS
(EXPECTED) CONTRACTING
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
OSVMOU
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
700
600
500
400
201820172016201520142013201220112010 2019 2020
OSVMOU
28
DNV GL © 2013
The MOU fleet comprises of 1800 units. Drilling segment
represents the major part, with a fleet of around 900. Scrapping
and slippage will slow down the fleet growth for the MOUs. The
short term growth is expected to be around 4% after which it
drops to less than 3% per year.
The drilling fleet is old, despite high level of deliveries in the
recent years. As many as 416 units are more then 30 years old
(70 more than 40 years old), thus potential for scrapping is high.
As the investment for a renewal of MOUs is quite significant
scrapping becomes more and more an option nowadays.
Number of drilling units without an employment rises. Since
January the total number of unemployed units have increased
from 262 to 298.
The OSV fleet consists of 9600 vessels and growing by 4% per
annum. AHTS and PSVs are the two largest segments with 3000
and 4000 vessels respectively.
Activity level is soft in all regions. GoM deep-water activity has
decreased to 51 active drilling units (down from 54). Vessel
freight rates have decreased as well. In Africa, the oil major
Total drives most of the very few tenders in the region. North
Sea Area has seen falling rates as well. The over supply is not
going to change anytime soon, as the demand is still very
limited. Only the SEA region sees some improvement as
tendering has picked up slightly.
No. of
vessels
X 1.000
vessels
Fleet development reduced by scrapping, slippage and
cancellations
Offshore | Supply
MOU - FLEET DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE SUPPORT VESSELS – FLEET DEVELOPMENT
2.500
2.000
3.000
1.000
1.500
0
500
20162011 20182014 2015
2,3%
2,1%
2013
2,7%
2020
4,3%
2019
4,1%
2012 20172010
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
201720162015 2020201920182013201220112010 2014
Platform Supply vesselsOSV - OtherAHTS
Well Intervention
Accommodation
Construction/ Maintenance
Production/ Storage
Drilling
29
DNV GL © 2013
Offshore | Prices & Chartering
Newbuilding prices seem to be unaffected so far. OSVs have
started to see a small decline. The orderbook for yards and
equipment manufacturer is still high, but this will not continue
for much longer.
Second hand prices have been hit much harder. Especially the
old drilling units. A 6th generation floaters second hand price has
dropped by 30% since 2012, 3rd generation has dropped with as
much as 70% in the same period!
The story is a bit different for old production units. Some years
ago operators were mainly building new, modern and purpose
built floating production units. Today they are often requesting
older and more cheaper solutions.
.000USD
Per day
Million
USD
Charter rates continue to fall. It’s a buyers market. Very few new
fixtures are being announced and many of the ongoing charters
are up for renegotiations. Some of the drilling contracts signed
this year have seen up to 50% of the discount:
- For the drillship Metro 1 a contract was signed in May 2013 for
18 months at 676,000USD a day. Just recently for the same unit
a contract was signed for 20 weeks at the rate of 285,000 USD a
day.
- Ocean Rig Olympia was signed for 580.000 USD a day in 2012.
The same unit has now signed an 8 month contract in Angola for
380,0000 only.
TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING PRICES
Charter rates on decline; contracts renegotiated
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20152014201320122011201020092008
900
800
700
600
200
100
0
20152014201320122011201020092008
PSV
AHTS
Drillship
Semi-sub
Jack-Up
PSV 4,000 dwt
AHTS 240t BP
FloaterSE Asia UDW
Floater Sth America UDW
FloaterGoM UDW
30
DNV GL © 2013
FOCUS ON CRUISE SHIPS AND MULTI PURPOSE VESSELS
DNV GL © 2013
By 2022, the worldwide cruise industry is expected to have a
capacity to carry more than 30 million passengers, compared to
22 million this year. While this growth rate appears to be very
high, the industry grew by about the same percentage over the
past seven years from 2008 to 2015.
The growth of the (now) mature markets of North America and
Europe has slowed down naturally and the cruise lines are
looking towards the Asia-Pacific for future growth. There is a
special focus on China, which has to generate 5.0 million
passengers yearly by 2022 to fill the fleet, according to the
Cruise Industry News Annual Report 2015-2016.
Travel operators in China are increasingly targeting elderly and
retiring citizens, a fast-growing and important segment of the
country’s expanding domestic tourism market.
CRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELS
Focus on | Cruise vessels
China’s population of residents age 60 and above already
amounts to more than 200 million, and is expected to account
for a third of the population by 2050. China’s cruise ship industry
is expected to expand to 4.5 million passengers a year by 2020,
making it the world’s largest cruise market after the USA.
So far in 2015, only one cruise ship newbuilding project was
signed. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (USA) and Meyer Werft
agreed to build a fourth Quantum-class ship for delivery in spring
2019. For the full year 2015, a total of 14 new contracts are
expected.
One of them could be Virgin Cruises. According to Italian
sources, they are closing in on an agreement with Italian
shipbuilder Fincantieri to build two large cruise ships. The Italian
yard is in competition with Meyer Werft in Papenburg, Germany
for the order of two large 170,000 GT vessels.
For the 2015-2020 period, yearly contracting levels are expected
to reach around 15 vessels per year. As a result of the upturn in
newbuilding contracting during the last two years, deliveries are
predicted to peak to 2.1mGT in 2018, compared to an average
yearly delivery volume of 1.0mGT in the 2015-2017 period.
The worldwide fleet is expected to grow from an average of 3.0%
per year in the 2011-2014 period to yearly 6% for the 2015-
2020 period (based on GT), as a result of the trend towards
cruise vessel upsizing.
Strong future fleet growth to keep up with expected
passenger growth
32
DNV GL classed “Pearl Mist” (2015), owned by Pearl Seas Cruises, sails
on The Great Lakes, Panama Canal, Costa Rica and the Boston area.
DNV GL © 2013
MULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELS
Focus on | Multi Purpose Vessels
MPV operators that were relying on cargoes coming from the
energy sector still suffer as well, because a lot of projects in the
oil & gas sector were put on hold.
The first positive sign for the MPV sector comes from the
projection that tonnage demand is expected to increase 5% per
year for the 2015-2019 period (with a bit lower growth for this
and next year, and after that expected to pick up to 5% per
year). Secondly, the MPV fleet is not expected to show any
significant growth for the 2015-2020 period (based on DWT-
capacity). This is the result of a longer period with relatively low
newbuilding contracting and constant vessel scrapping activity.
For the 2015-2020 period, newbuilding contracting levels are
expected to average 2.1mDWT per year. For the current year
and next year, somewhat lower levels are expected. Since the
fleet demolition rate is foreseen around the same level
(2.1mDWT per year), fleet growth will be marginal.
Regarding the outlook for MPVs, it is the global economic
development as well as the state of the containership- and dry
bulk sectors that determine the demand for MPVs. Global
economic activity triggers infrastructural projects and with these
projects, the demand to transport the materials arises. Besides
infrastructural projects, MPVs also hope to benefit from further
expansion projects in the wind energy sector.
Almost half way into the year 2015, there are first positive signs
from market players about the outlook for multi purpose vessels.
It is no longer expected that 2015 will bring “the turnaround” for
the sector, but compared to the last couple of years the situation
is somewhat better.
At the same time, vessel earnings are still below levels that are
sustainable for the future. For that reason, there are more and
more initiatives where owners form alliances, or start to
cooperate in another form.
What has been unchanged, is that MPVs still experience strong
competition from container vessels and smaller bulk carriers for
breakbulk cargoes. With the markets down in both the dry bulk
market and the container vessel segment, MPVs are hit from
both sides.
Demand for MPVs expected to increase, but still weak
market conditions
33
DNV GL classed, “AAL Newcastle” (2014), 32,000 dwt
DNV GL © 2013
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
The Trend Report is published by the Sales & Market Intelligence department.
Contact persons for the respective chapters are:
Market summary, Oil & Product Tankers Jakub Walenkiewicz
Containerships, MPVs, Cruise vessels Jeffrey van der Gugten
Bulk Carriers Pierre Pochard
Offshore (Oil & Gas) Viktor Sinding-Larsen
Philipp Westphal
Head of Sales & Market Intelligence
Business Development / Business Support
Email: philipp.westphal@dnvgl.com
Telephone: +49 40 36149 6197

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DNV GL Trend Report - June 2015

  • 1. DNV GL © 2013 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2013 BUSINESS AREA MARITIME – BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT June 2015 Disclaimer Whilst care has been taken in the production of this analysis, no liability can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.
  • 2. DNV GL © 2013 MARKET SUMMARY ………………………..…………………………………… BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT ………………..…………………………….. CONTAINERSHIPS ……………..………………………………………………… OIL & PRODUCT TANKERS ……………………………………………… BULK CARRIERS .…………..………………………………………………………. OFFSHORE ….................…….………………………………………………… FOCUS ON: CRUISE VESSELS …….……………….………………………………………….. MULTI PURPOSE VESSELS ……………………………………............... 3 5 6 12 18 25 33 32
  • 3. DNV GL © 2013 Market Summary 16 June 20153 are substantially higher and are likely to remain satisfactory at least until the end of the year. Also product tankers make reasonable profit and their prospects remain positive. The LPG players sit with a happy and self-confident smile, but with freight rates reaching $100.000/day (for VLGC), it comes as no surprise. Their LNG partners may have not been as lucky, however big projects which start in the near future give them confidence that they have played their cards well so far. In the container segment, a whiff of optimism can be sensed, as most of the operators have managed to return to profit. The gloomy side of the table is certainly occupied by the dry bulk segment. Slower growth of imports (particularly to China), combined with a substantial oversupply of tonnage have literally wiped out all of the profits. Uncontrolled contracting has started to take its toll and it may take several years before this segment recovers. The offshore players are sweating bullets as well. They were winning the table for the past few years, but the current low oil price and reduced E&P investments put them in a very uncomfortable spot. Add a record high orderbook to the picture and you can see that playing bluff is not an option either. So there you have it. The cards are on the table. What you see is what you get. Current sluggish NB contracting proves beyond doubt, that we have a strong correction in the market. It doesn’t mean that we are entering another recession and that everyone is losing the game. The game, however, has just got a lot more interesting! Ever since the last recession, shipping in its strive for recovery has followed various “fashion” trends. We have seen counter- cyclical ordering, the growing role of private equity, an increased interest in energy efficiency or a gradual shift towards the so called “eco ships”. We have also experienced an unprecedented development in the offshore industry, led by high oil prices triggered by the presumption of a shortage of that commodity. So what is next? Almost six months into the year, if we were to describe the market in one word, that word would be “correction”. It’s now time to lay the cards on the table and prove who has got the strongest hand. So in 2015 we “call all- in”. On the lucky side of the table we can certainly find oil and gas tanker owners. Due to cheap oil, crude oil tanker earnings What you see is what you get GLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETSGLOBAL SHIPPING MARKETS GLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, JanGLOBAL CONTRACTING 2014 vs 2015, Jan----MayMayMayMay 423 476 76 91 303 312 101 72 155 169 40 108 Dry Cargo Tanker Offshore Container Bulker Other 2014 (Jan-May) 2015 (Jan-May)
  • 4. DNV GL © 2013 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020201520142013201220112010 Market Summary 16 June 20154 Our latest forecast results show a dramatic reduction of number of new contracts, in 2015 falling to just a little over 1,800 ships and MOU (incl. small tonnage). If it comes true, it would be one of the lowest years in the past 15 years. We expect a small and gradual recovery end of this year. It is driven mainly on the presumption that shipyards will be forced to further reduce prices, thus attracting potential investors. Looking into specific ship segments, we can clearly see uneven developments. We remain positive for contracting within the larger crude oil tankers as well as products tankers (LR1, LR2 possibly LR3). In the gas sector, although already burdened with large orderbook, we still see a possibility for further contracting. It is mainly driven by a positive future outlook in this market. The container operators remain active, however we see a trend where liner operators target the largest ships (20+k TEU), whereas the non-operating owners choose from 8-13k TEU segment, offering a greater flexibility for deployment. On the other hand, we see substantial difficulties in the dry bulk sector, where supply/demand balance is widening. Reduced shipments and relatively strong fleet development sends shockwaves across the entire sector discouraging further investment. The situation in the offshore sector isn’t any better. Reduced investment, low capacity utilisation, combined with a record high orderbook give very little hope for the recovery any time soon. What goes up, must gown down until it bounces back up again! Shipbuilders are certainly not happy about the recent developments. The contracting activity is far below their expectations. During the first 5 months of 2015, only 640 contracts have been signed. It is even below the level we experienced in 2009, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Monthly average contracting has fallen to around 127 ships (incl. MOUs). Uneven dynamics in the market are well reflected by which ships are being contracted nowadays. We clearly see a lot less activity in the dry bulk and offshore segments, whereas ordering of oil, gas and chemical tankers remains relatively vibrant. The container segment is also active, mostly, although not exclusively, within the larger ships. Downhill slide GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels)GLOBAL CONTRACTING FORECAST (vessels) Historical data Forecast
  • 5. DNV GL © 2013 PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 120 80 40 750 500 250 201420132012 20152011201020092008 1.500 1.000 500 2014201320122011201020092008 2015 40 20 -20 2015201420132010 2011 2012 40 45 50 55 60 2011 2015201420122010 2013 Business Environment Oil prices increased 25% in 2015 year-to-date During the second half of 2014, the US dollar made significant gains against the Euro and against the Japanese Yen. This trend continued in the first five months of 2015. For the Chinese Yuan Renminbi and the South Korean Won, the situation remained more or less unchanged. Brent crude oil stood at US$50 per barrel at the start of this year, and has increased since then by 25% to the current price of US$63,-. The 380 cst Rotterdam reached its lowest point in January 2015 with US$250 per tonne, down 55% compared to the high level of US$ 570 per tonne in January 2014. OIL / BUNKER STEEL / SCRAP Bunker $/tonne Crude $/bbl USD EXCHANGE RATES 380cst R’dam Crude (Brent) Index Avg. Demolition Price VLCC (USD/ldt) Global Steel Price (USD/t) % China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index 5 USD/KRW USD/CNYUSD/EUR USD/JPN
  • 6. DNV GL © 2013
  • 7. DNV GL © 2013 Executive Summary| Containerships Demand for the large container vessels (all vessels above 12,000 TEU) comes from the Asia-Europe trade. Newbuilding demand is expected to stay relatively high, due to the need from liner companies to save slot costs. The major alliances are now in place, and further ordering is expected. Since scrapping is non- existent for this segment, yearly fleet growth rates are high. Containerships 8,000-12,000 TEU are more and more deployed on non-mainlane trades. Once the new Panama Canal has opened, additional deployment opportunities are expected. Contracting levels are expected to increase, and also here, scrapping does not play a role. Yearly fleet growth levels are expected to remain high. For containerships 3,000-8,000 TEU, demand is expected to increase after the opening of the new Panama Canal (for the wide-beam designs). In addition, trade growth in the smaller North–South routes, intra Asian and other non-mainlane trades support future growth. Scrapping activity is expected to keep fleet growth to minimum levels. For the smallest containerships below 3,000 TEU, demand growth in the future is expected to come from the intra-Asian network of routes and the North–South routes. Although contracting levels are expected to pick up, scrapping levels are too high to result in a positive fleet growth in the mid term. The most recent forecast for the 2015 containership fleet growth is around 7% (TEU based), compared to a global containerized trade growth of 5,7%. Fleet capacity expansion is going to take place predominantly in the segment of the largest containerships. For next year however, fleet growth is expected to reach a much lower 5,5%, whereas trade growth is predicted to increase to 6,4%. Despite some mixed signals about the strength of the 2015 Asia–Europe trade growth recently, the longer term growth expectations for containerised cargo are optimistic. The ongoing trend of building even larger containerships shows no sign of slowing down and recently, Maersk Line announced that it plans to build a further 11 Triple-E class vessels, with an option for six more. CONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPSCONTAINERSHIPS The trend of mega containership is expected to continue 7
  • 8. DNV GL © 2013 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20202018201620142012201020082006200420022000 In its “World Economic Outlook”, the IMF forecast global growth of 3.5% in 2015 (unchanged from its last update in January) and 3.8% in 2016, slightly stronger than it had previously expected. Earlier, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) cut its forecasts for global trade growth this year to 3.3%, down from 4%. Global containerized trade is expected to grow by 5.7% in 2015, which would mean a slight increase compared to the 2014 increase of 5.3%. In 2016, trade is expected to grow by 6.4% to reach 192,5 million TEU at the end of the year. For 2015, trade on the mainlanes Far East–US and Far East- Europe is expected to grow by 4.1% and 4.5% respectively and for the Europe-US trade an increase of 3.0% is foreseen. The North-South trades and non-mainlane East-West trades are expected to grow by 6.5%-7.0% in 2015. All in all, stronger than last years trade growth is expected for the Far East-US and the North-South trades. For the Asia-Europe trade, year-to-date volumes (Jan - end of April 2015) recorded 4.7m teu, representing a 3.4% fall on the 4.9m TEU moved by Asia-Europe carriers during the first four months of last year, according to Container Trades Statistics (CTS). However, on a month on month basis, the figures suggest that normality is returning to the trade following the usual slowdown post-Chinese New Year. % p.a. 150 100 50 0 250 200 6,4% 5,7% 5,0% 5,3% 201520132011200920072005 Other North-South Non-Mainlane East-West Transatlantic (EU-US) Far East-Europe Transpacific (FE-US) mTEU Containerships | Demand ChinaUSA EUGlobal GDP GROWTH EXPECTATIONS GLOBAL CONTAINERISED TRADE Healthy trade growth expected, but uncertainty still exists 8
  • 9. DNV GL © 2013 100 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 200 300 400 500 20152014201320122011 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 In the first five months of the year, containership newbuilding contracting amounted to 72 vessel totalling 930,000 TEU. This year, the focus is clearly on the ordering of very large containerships. A total of 34 containerships with 18,000 TEU or more have been ordered so far this year (compared to 13 vessels last year). On the other hand, so far in 2015 there were no new contracts for containerships between 12,000-16,000 TEU (last year, there were 34 new orders for this size segment). For the full year 2015, the volume of new contracts is expected to reach around 1,9 million TEU with 180 vessels. Focus is on the liner companies, which are expected to continue ordering the very largest containerships >16,000 TEU for the rest of the year. Future levels of newbuilding contracting are based on healthy containerised trade growth expectations for the years to come and the continuation of lowering slot costs per transported container. This could lead to a gradual increase in the yearly contracting volumes from 1,6 mTEU in 2016 to 2,1 mTEU in 2020. The total idle containership fleet reached 1,8% or 350,000 TEU at the start of May 2015. Compared to the start of the year, this means an increase of more than 100,000 TEU. Although the total number of vessels in layup did not change significantly, there are relatively more mid-sized containerships in layup (3,000-7,500 TEU segment) and less smaller vessels (< 3,000 TEU). mTEU Containerships | Supply (EXPECTED) CONTRACTING Strong focus on large vessel newbuilding contracting 9 <3k TEU 3-8k TEU 8-12k TEU 12K-16K TEU >16K TEU <3k TEU 3-7,5k TEU mTEU (right axis) >7,5k TEU mTEUVessels IDLE CONTAINERISHIP FLEET
  • 10. DNV GL © 2013 For the containership sector, 2015 will be characterized by another year with high volume deliveries. This is the direct result from the extraordinary newbuilding contracting level in 2013 totalling 2.0 mTEU. The largest part of the TEU capacity that will be delivered this year will come from the 8,000-12,000 TEU size segment, followed by the largest vessels in the +16,000 TEU segment. Delivery expectations for 2016 are much lower, coming from the dip in newbuilding contracting that occurred in 2014 (1,1mTEU). This will result in a slower fleet growth in 2016, compared to other years. Yearly deliveries are expected to average 1,6mTEU in the 2017-2020 period. However, the highest impact on the demand/supply balance is the fact that deliveries from the largest vessels (+16,000 TEU) will increase their share in the total deliveries, increasing the delivery volume more than proportional, due to their size. The containership fleet still is relatively young, at least the larger size segments. As a result, scrapping expectations for the 2015- 2020 period are expected to be around 275,000 TEU per year and apply to the two smallest size segments of the fleet only. Fleet growth (in TEU capacity) for the 2015-2020 period is expected to be around +6% per year with an exception for this year. Due to strong deliveries and relatively low scrappings, the containership fleet is expected to expand by +7% in 2015. mTEU mTEU Containerships | Supply EXPECTED DELIVERIES & REMOVALS FLEET DEVELOPMENT +6% yearly fleet growth expected for 2015-2020 10 2,0 0,0 0,5 1,5 1,0 -0,5 2011 20122010 20152013 2014 20192018 202020172016 12K-16K TEU <3k TEU8-12k TEU>16K TEU 3-8k TEU 5 0 10 20 15 25 201320122011 2016 201820172014 2015 2019 20202010 12K-16K TEU 8-12k TEU 3-8k TEU >16K TEU <3k TEU
  • 11. DNV GL © 2013 Containerships | Prices & Chartering 200 150 100 50 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Containership freight rates started to drop quite suddenly in the second quarter of 2015 on all of the benchmark SCFI trades (the average drop for the four routes is -35%). This occurred after the latest round of general rate increases proposed by liner companies were not accepted by the market. On the contrary, timecharter rates for containerships have increased across all size ranges in the Jan-May 2015 period. The containership timecharter rate index increased 30% in the first five months of this year. Possible explanations for the diverse direction of rates must be found in a slowdown in parts of the cascading process and a contraction in the charter market fleet. mUSD .000 USD per day Newbuilding prices for container vessels remained unchanged so far in 2015. Considering the newbuilding contracting volume, this comes as no surprise. And as long as the orders keep on coming this year, there will probably not be much price movement. Current newbuilding prices range between $31 million for a 2,600-2,900 TEU vessel and $154 million for a 18,500-19,000 TEU vessel, of course heavily dependant on the vessel specifications. The latest newbuilding vessels by Maersk for instance are priced at around $160m per vessel, more than others of similar capacity ordered in recent months. Some of the features of the new ships include higher lashing bridges and strengthened hatch covers to allow taller container stacks. 0 2 4 5 3 6 7 1 20132010 2011 2012 20152014 SCFI Shanghai-WC America Freight Rate $/FEU SCFI Shanghai-Med Freight Rate $/TEU SCFI Shanghai-Europe Freight Rate $/TEU SCFI Shanghai-US EC Freight Rate $/FEU 4,800 TEU (Wide Beam) 2,500 teu Geared 18,5K-19K TEU 13K-14K TEU 6,600-6,800 teu 8,500-9,100 TEU NEWBUILDING PRICES FREIGHT RATES (Shanghai Shipping Exchange) Containership spot rates take a dive. Timecharter rates go up and newbuilding prices still unchanged. 11
  • 12. DNV GL © 2013
  • 13. DNV GL © 2013 Executive Summary| Oil & Products Tankers (particularly in the MR segment) may start to put pressure on the rates. Nevertheless, we still believe in good performance at least until the end of 2015. Despite strong fundamentals supporting the market, there are also several factors which need to be addressed. First of all, the robust growth of shipments is triggered by low oil prices, which results in stockpiling as well as, it supports refinery margins, encouraging higher throughput. Those are not the drivers coming from increased oil consumption, but simply from taking an advantage of the current market environment. Secondly, as we expect a substantial number of deliveries for 2016 and 2017, strong rates are going to gradually come under pressure. As there is only limited potential for scrapping (or conversions), both crude oil and products fleet growth will accelerate, thus substantially increasing the supply of tonnage. A rapid increase of refinery capacity in the Middle East, India and China is another interesting factor. Since there are more products generated in that regions, it is reasonable to suspect that it will lead to reduced exports of crude oil and increased exports of products. As volumes are likely to grow, the long- range products tankers are the obvious “suspects” to benefit from that change. There are more factors to take into account, such as political unrest in Libya and the relaxing of Iranian sanctions. It is hard to predict their outcome, but they will play an important role too. While the entire merchant shipping benefits from the reduced fuel expenses, crude oil tankers seem to have hit the jackpot! Besides the savings made on bunkers, they have also been blessed with a substantial growth of demand for tonnage. Cheap oil has triggered off an intensive stockpiling (particularly in Asia), which resulted in an increased number of fixtures for the crude tankers. As a result the freight rates have gone up substantially. Average 1 year TC rates are at least twice as high as they were a year ago. A strong spot market keeps oil tankers busy and owners are reluctant to offer their ships for storage. Relatively low deliveries of new tonnage in 2015 will most likely keep earnings high for another year. Products tankers continue to perform well, however a large orderbook and subsequently growing number of deliveries. Full steam ahead! OIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERSOIL & PRODUCTS TANKERS 13 DNV GL “Everbright” delivered 2010, 156 717 DWT, 274.50m Loa
  • 14. DNV GL © 2013 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 2014201220102008 2009 2011 2013 2015 After the latest meeting, OPEC announced they would maintain their current crude oil production, leaving the production target of 30mbd unchanged. In fact, during the past 3 months production was over 31mbd. As we face a possible lift of Iranian sanctions, the situation may get even more interesting. Iran claims that it is able to almost immediately add another 0.5mbd of production, should the sanctions are lifted. In addition, yet another 0.5mbd will be added within the next 6 months, as Iran is willing to restore all its previous export patterns. Add another 38mb of oil currently stored on tankers and we are likely to see a lot more oil in the international markets by the end of the year. The sudden increase of available oil will not directly translate into much more robust demand for tonnage, however we still expect a good growth in demand in 2015. For crude oil tankers it is forecast to reach 2.3% (DWT terms), whereas for products tankers it will increase up to 4.2% y-o-y. There are visible changes of trade patterns. The US shale production forces the traditional US suppliers to find new markets. Latin America started to export larger volumes to Asia. West-African oil goes to Europe and Asia rather than to the US. There is also a new trade from the US back to coastal Canada (due to free trade agreement). Despite Canadian oil being sold to the US, Canada’s demand for this commodity is generated mainly in the coastal areas, thus seaborne crude is preferred. Million bpd mDWT Solid tonnage demand growth Oil & Products Tankers | Demand GLOBAL OIL DEMAND TANKER DEMAND DEVELOPMENT 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 20162014201220102008 y-o-y change in % mio bpd y-o-y change product in %y-o-y change crude in % Product tanker demandCrude tanker demand 14
  • 15. DNV GL © 2013 Driven by the strong fundamentals, contracting of oil tankers remains vibrant. As newbuilding prices are still low, investors are keen to take on new projects. As many as 64 crude and 38 product tankers have been placed in the shipyards during the first 5 months. In addition, it is worth mentioning, that there have been at least 14 newbuilding contract conversions, from capesize bulkers into LR1 and LR2 tankers and there are likely more to come in the second half of the year. According to the DNVGL forecast, another 47 crude and 120 products and chemical/oil tankers are to be contracted towards the end of the year. The total expected volume in 2015 (incl. conversions) is expected to reach around 280 contracts (32mDWT). Looking beyond 2015, our expectations for the sector remain positive, however in 2016 the total number of contracts is expected to be below this years result (264). It is mainly due to lower expectations in the MR tanker contracting, triggered by already a large orderbook in this segment. We remain positive for the larger ships (LR1, LR2 and possibly LR3) as the volumes of cargo are expected to grow robustly. Based on that fact, we expect increased competition of larger vessels against typically used MR tankers in some trades. In the crude sector we expect similar number of contracts for VLCC, whereas in the Suezmax sector, due to recent extensive contracting we forecast a significant slowdown in 2016. mDWT mDWT Contracting – looking into the crystal ball Oil & Products Tankers | Supply EXPECTED DELIVERIES & REMOVALS (EXPECTED) CONTRACTING 0 30 40 20 10 20142013201220112010 202020192015 2016 2017 2018 Crude Oil Tankers Product/Chemical Tankers -20 30 10 -10 20 40 60 0 50 202020192010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Crude Oil Tankers Product/Chemical Tankers 15
  • 16. DNV GL © 2013 15 11 15 1717 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax Handysize 300 100 200 0 700 600 500 400 20202019201820162015 201720142013201220112010 If we look at the demand/supply ratio, it seems like most of the oil tanker segments are well balanced. On the crude side, the demand for tonnage is a notch ahead of the expected fleet growth, providing an extra boost for freight rates. When we look beyond the current year, we must not underappreciate coming deliveries, which in 2016 will be much higher than in 2014 and 2015. This will certainly bring a cooling effect to the earnings. On the product side, the balance is slightly worse although yet not alarming. The fleet is going to grow 1% faster than demand for tonnage. As already mentioned before, we are particularly worried about 245 vessels strong MR orderbook. Many of those ships were contracted on a speculative basis and thus may struggle to find employment once being delivered. In addition, on the longer hauls, LR1 tankers will gradually try to squeeze their smaller brothers out of business, by providing better economies of scale. The oil tanker orderbook contains 841 ships corresponding to 75.6 mDWT. It represents 8% and 14% of the existing fleet respectively. The current fleet consists of 11,026 ships, which have an accumulated tonnage of 526.9 mDWT. In 2015, the crude fleet is expected to grow by 1.1% (vs. demand of 2.3%) whereas the products tanker fleet will grow by 5.6% (vs demand of 4.2%). mDWT Oil & Products Tankers | Supply FLEET DEVELOPMENT Order book versus fleet [in %] Product/Chemical TankersCrude Oil Tankers Fleet in balance 16
  • 17. DNV GL © 2013 Oil & Products Tankers | Prices & Chartering Over the past 3 months, oil tankers earnings remained high, averaging around $33,600/day. It is a little less than in the beginning of the year, but still very satisfactory indeed. Due to a general fall in the contracting activity, newbuilding prices started to deteriorate, which creates an additional incentive for further investment. VLCC costs around 95.5 mUSD, Suezmax 64.5 mUSD, whereas Aframax 53.0 mUSD (55.0 mUSD for a LR2). Second hand prices have remained pretty much unchanged. The 5yo/NB price ratio hoovers around 84%-88%. Demolition activity is limited to the small product/chemical tankers only. In the larger sector there were only a hand-full of vessels sold for scrapping in the year to date. 000.USD Per day Million USD TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING & SECOND HAND PRICES 000.USD per day CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS Good earnings, falling NB prices and no demolition 40 30 20 10 50 60 70 2012 2013 20152008 2009 2010 2011 2014 Handy Panamax Afra Suez VLCC 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 20122011201020092008 201520142013 5yrs Handy 5yrs Aframax 5yrs VLCC 20 60 40 120 80 100 2010 20132012 201420112008 20152009 VLCC AfraSuez 17
  • 18. DNV GL © 2013
  • 19. DNV GL © 2013 Executive Summary| Bulk Carriers 19 China’s coal imports fell 42% y-o-y in 1Q2015 and imports appear to be heavily undermined this year by China shifting away its focus from polluting, coal-fired power plants to renewables and cleaner sources of energy. Meanwhile, Chinese iron ore imports are still expected to expand firmly by around 6% despite weak domestic steel demand. Expansion of low-cost Australian supply should displace some domestic Chinese production volumes in the current low price environment and boost the seaborne trade. On the supply side, we have seen a record number of demolitions so far in 2015, particularly in the capesize segment where over 50 ships (not all officially reported) have been scrapped. The average demolition age has fallen and if this trend continues, many more recently built vessels are likely to face a similar fate. However, deliveries are expected to reach 60M DWT in 2015 and 43M DWT in 2016 which will continue to put pressure on the supply side. The recent slowdown in Chinese demand has lowered down market’s expectations, demonstrated by the conversion of some dry bulk vessels to tankers in a desperate attempt by owners to return to profitability. It is estimated that in 2015 ytd, as many as 15 newbuilding orders for capesize bulk carriers were changed into tanker orders. Growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade is likely to slow in 2015 following estimated expansion of 4% in 2014. Currently, dry bulk trade is expected to increase by 2,4% which is below expectation at the beginning of the year. The dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s economic slowdown in 1Q2015 and together with the oversupply of ships across all sectors; earnings have been pushed to historical low levels. Capesize average spot earnings (2010-built) reached a seven year low of 4,444 USD/day in March which is below typical operating cost level. Panamax earnings (2010-built) reached 6,856 USD/day while handymax (52K DWT) earnings averaged around 6,000 USD/day. Overall, average bulk carrier earnings in 1Q2015 represented the lowest quarterly average since 4Q2001 and by May 2015, freight rates had shown no sign of improvement. During 1Q2015, the Chinese economy grew 7% y-o-y, which is the slowest pace of growth since 2009. China's dry bulk imports have taken a dramatic dive and the trend looks set to continue. BULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERSBULK CARRIERS DNV GL bulk carrier “Ajax” delivered 2006. 77,328 DWT. 225m loa Eco-Conscious China keeps the market down
  • 20. DNV GL © 201320 Iron ore spot prices fell 59% y-o-y in April to hit a ten year low of less than 47 USD/T; far away from the 190 USD/T recorded in 2011. The two major Australian miners have targeted an additional combined increase in production for 2015 of around 70m tonnes and the continued flow of iron ore should keep spot prices depressed. China took measures in April to support the domestic iron ore mining industry amidst falling prices, by cutting power costs and halving the rate of resource tax iron ore miners pay. This could eventually have a negative impact on the trade. Exports to China from several countries are likely to ease as smaller miners scale down production. Therefore the latest projection for Chinese iron ore imports has been revised down to an increase of 6% y-o-y totaling 971m tonnes, which represent a much slower growth than the 15% registered in 2014. Chinese seaborne coal imports dropped 49% y-o-y in 1Q2015. While Chinese coal powered generation fell 4% y-o-y during the first quarter, hydro-electric generation increased 17% y-o-y in the same period. Restrictions on coal quality will become stricter mid-2015, as the government continues to attempt to reduce urban air pollution. Global seaborne coal trade is expected to decline to around 940m tonnes in 2015 despite strong projected growth in Indian coal imports. Rising power demand, low coal prices and issues surrounding domestic coal output is expected to continue driving Indian demand. Million tonnes Million tonnes Bulk Carriers | Demand CHINESE SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS CHINESE SEABORNE IRON ORE IMPORTS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 300 600 900 1.200 0 2013201220112010 %shares 2015 f.2014 % Others (RHS) % Brazil (RHS) % Australia (RHS) Others Brazil Australia 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 300 200 100 0 400 %shares 2015 f.20142013201220112010 Others Australia Indonesia % Others % Australia (RHS) % Indonesia (RHS) China’s economy moving away from industrial growth is drawing the last air out of the dry bulk market
  • 21. DNV GL © 201321 Recent high rates of scrapping and very low contracting are providing some release on the supply side at the moment. According to IHS Fairplay, during the first four months of 2015, 168 bulkers with a total of around 10.8 mDWT have been sold for demolition. Other sources report up to 225 ships scrapped with capesizes carrying the lions share with more than 50 demolitions but figures are not yet confirmed. Younger tonnage is being demolished and the average age at which bulker vessels were scrapped has thus fallen to below 25 years for the first time this century. Only 89 orders have been placed in 2015 ytd. 27 handysizes, 21 ultramaxes and 18 kamsarmaxes have been contracted, representing 75% of the bulkers ordered. Only few capesizes have been contracted (4 orders) which is not really a surprise in a market where earnings are below operating cost, but a timely relief to investors with ships on the orderbook. Around 350 bulkers are forecast to be ordered this year, down from 765 last year. 6.1 mDWT (240 ships) has been delivered so far. In the handymax sector, most of the deliveries were ultramax bulkers with 21 ships delivered. 27 handysizes, 18 kamsarmaxes, 4 VLBC as well as 4 capesizes also entered the fleet in 2015 ytd. Deliveries are expected to reach 60 mDWT in 2015 (compared to 47.7 mDWT last year) and 43 mDWT in 2016 which will continue to put pressure on the supply side. mDWT mDWT Bulk Carriers | Supply (EXPECTED) DELIVERIES & REMOVALS (EXPECTED) CONTRACTING -40 120 80 40 0 201820152012 20142013 2017201620112010 20202019 120 100 80 20 40 60 0 20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 Capesize Handymax VLBC HandysizePanamax VLBC* > 210.000 dwt Capesize 100-210.000 dwt Panamax 65-100.000 dwt Handymax 40-65.000 dwt Handysize 10-40.000 dwt *contains Ore Carriers (avg 250.000 dwt) Orders plunge and rise in scrapping gives hope to dry bulk misery Handymax Panamax Capesize HandysizeVLBC
  • 22. DNV GL © 201322 As of 1st of May 2015, the dry bulk fleet comprises 11,370 ships (758 mDWT). Handysizes (2999 ships) and supramaxes (1946 ships) represent the biggest sectors in numerical terms. Firm demolition volumes during the first months of 2015 has meant that the capsize fleet at the start of May was steady compared to the start of the year. The sluggish growth in the handysize fleet (+2,4% in 2015 ytd) is partly due to the drop in deliveries. While the handysize fleet remains one of the oldest sector on average in the bulk carrier fleet (with 23,3% of handysize vessels aged 20 years and above, compared to 9,2% of handymaxes), handysize demolition volumes have not picked up as strongly as in the larger vessel sectors. The current orderbook of bulk carriers stands today at 1,643 ships (136.6 mDWT), 200 fewer ships than at the beginning of 2015. 492 ultramaxes, 363 handysizes and 299 kamsarmaxes are currently on order which represent 70% of the total dry bulk orderbook in numerical terms. At the end of 2014, the bulk carrier orderbook represented 20,7% of the existing fleet in DWT terms. In 2015 ytd, the ratio is down to 18% which is releasing some pressure on the supply side and a step forward to the road of recovery. The orderbook is still casting a shadow over subdued demand but recent developments on the supply side are at least providing some hope for a more balanced market. mDWT Bulk Carriers | Supply/Demand FLEET DEVELOPMENT YEAR-ON-YEAR FLEET CHANGES IN % (DWT) 800 600 400 200 201220112010 20202019201820172016201520142013 Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize VLBC -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202012 HandymaxVLBC Capesize Handysize Panamax Some positive developments are taking shape on the supply side VLBC* > 210.000 dwt Capesize 100-210.000 dwt Panamax 65-100.000 dwt Handymax 40-65.000 dwt Handysize 10-40.000 dwt *contains Ore Carriers (avg 250.000 dwt)
  • 23. DNV GL © 2013 Bulk Carriers | Prices & Chartering 23 shipyards have started to retreat. Capesize newbuilding price is now down to 50M USD compared to 54M USD four month ago. Resale value and 5 year old prices started to fall as well, reaching 47M USD and 33M USD respectively in May. In secondhand sales, activity continues to gain ground, with a lot of interest gathering around fairly modern and resale capesizes. In general though there are still a number of owners that seem to be finding it difficult to cope with the new price reality being made every day. And although price drops have slowed in May compared to what was being witnessed at the beginning of the year, there still seems to be room for further discounts. 5 year old capsizes are now priced at 34M USD and 5 year old panamaxes at 17M USD. .000 USD per day Million USD Spot capesize rates averaged 3,000 USD/day in March and went as low as 2,625 USD/day on the 27th of March. This is almost half of the rates seen at the end of 2014. The Panamax spot rates started the year at 5,718 USD/day, went below 4,000 USD/day in March but are now up to 4,438 USD/day. Anaemic demand growth is here to stay, especially as the trade development in coal and iron ore into China is expected to decline further. Hence, no noticeable recovery in freight rates should be expected this year. We may see some improvement in earnings through 2016 but this is unlikely to be sufficient for reaching breakeven. With banks reluctant to finance dry bulk newbuildings, in the back of the market’s worst performances in decades and ship owners finding it hard to justify such moves, prices offered from ONE YEAR TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING & SECOND HAND PRICES 60 100 80 0 40 20 120 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152008 20102009 Handymax Handysize Capesize Panamax 0 100 80 60 120 40 20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201520082007 Capesize Handymax (61K)5 yrs Cape Panamax 5 yrs P’max 61K Resale Prices Dry bulk freight rates at abysmal levels and newbuilding prices started to fall
  • 24. DNV GL © 201324 Benefiting from China’s leading role in the shipbuilding industry and the ordering boom in the mid-2000, Chinese designers have come into the spotlight and are now indispensable partners to Chinese shipbuilders. If we look at the current orderbook of bulk carriers in China by design (data coverage of around 83%), foreign designs account for only 20,6% in May 2015. Chinese “state-owned” designers are dominating the dry bulk orderbook in China, accounting for around 56% of orders and are adopted by both state-owned and private yards. They provide a wide range of designs, though most orders are in the handymax sector, where SDARI provides the ‘Dolphin 64’ ultramax and in the panamax sector with SDARI ‘KMAX 82’ kamsarmax design. SDARI alone, accounts for 50,5% of all orders, across 38 yards. Chinese “yards affiliated” designers, which are linked to particular yards, have the tendency to focus more on the bigger sectors, with the larger yards more likely to take orders for the bigger units. Around 49,2% of bulkers currently on order and linked to Chinese yards designers are capesizes and 30% are VLBC. Shanghai Waigaoqiao, which has the largest capesize orderbook globally, has adopted its own design. As Chinese yards build their brands they tend to improve their design capabilities by setting up their own designs. Yangzijiang Group has acquired designer CS Marine, while AVIC group has bought foreign designer Deltamarin. Bulk Carriers | Designs in China DRY BULK ORDERBOOK IN CHINA BY DESIGNER ORDBOOK AT CHINESE STATE OWNED DESIGNER A look at the dry bulk orderbook in China by designer 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Number Unknown 171 Chinese private 9 Chinese yard affiliated 63 Foreign 210 Chinese state owned 567 VLBCCapesizePanamaxHandymaxHandysize 91,7% CSDC (36 orders at 4 yards) SDARI (520 orders at 38 yards) 6,3% 1,9% MARIC (11 orders at 2 yards)
  • 25. DNV GL © 2013
  • 26. DNV GL © 2013 Executive Summary| Offshore 26 than a thousand rig years back in 2012 FY. The number of scheduled deliveries for 2015 is as high as 880 vessels. It is 150 more than a record high number in 2010. Due to weaker market, it is expected that slippage and cancellations will be extraordinary. Most of the units under construction do not have fixed contract, consequently going straight to lay-up. Increased scrapping will play a major role in the fleet growth reduction. As much as 32 floaters have already been announced for scrapping this year. A weak rig market combined with fewer rig movements has really started to affect the OSV fleet. Lay-ups and reduced rates have been announced in all regions. As many as 48 OSVs are already laid up at the NCS. Offshore contracting has nearly gone into a grinding stop. So far there have been only 109 offshore contracts signed. The MOU segment has been hit the hardest. The OSVs sector, despite lower activity has so far performed better than expected. Todays market is quite challenging, but still seems to be manageable. Most units are on long term contracts and seasonable maintenance makes contractors fairly busy. As contracts end and new initiatives are put on hold, it is expected to be even more depressing times ahead. The offshore market continues to struggle as demand for rigs and OSVs has collapsed and oversupply rises. The industry does what it can to adopt to the new environment, with the help of severe cost cuts and lay-ups. Most figures are on a sharp decline. Some units have experienced the day-rates being cut by 50%. Utilization rates have been weakening since the beginning of 2014. The average rate for drilling units stands at 82%. That’s down from 91% in just 12 months and even lower than after the financial crises. Fixing activity has also fallen. Just 135 rig years have been contracted ytd. (Rig year: number of units ordered multiplied by the individual length of the contract). Quite a drop from more It will get worse before it gets better… OFFSHOREOFFSHOREOFFSHOREOFFSHORE The PSV NAO Protector (former Blue Protector). Delivered from Ulsteinvik in 2013. Owned by NAO. Classed by DNV GL.
  • 27. DNV GL © 2013 Crude oil price has stabilized around $65/bbl. A solid increase since the 2015 lowest level of $45,13 bbl (Jan 13th). Global oil supply remains at a steep 3,2 mbd y-o-y. Reaching as much as 95,7 mbd. It is mostly driven by a very high production from the OPEC countries (31,21 mbd). Global demand is projected at 1,1 mbd for 2015, reaching 93,6 mbd. Cold winter and steadily improving global economic growth have been the main drivers. Global offshore E&P are declining. Rystad Energy, a fast growing consultancy company, expects that expenditures will continue to fall until 2018. Floaters utilization factor remains weak. Ultra-deep water utilization rates have decreased to 88%. The jack ups have declined to 85% for the large units and 75% for the small ones. Fixing activity continues to be slow. There has been only 9 floaters and 22 jack-ups fixtures signed year to date, mostly short term contracts. There has been a small boost during the past weeks as contracts are renegotiated and extended. Three contracts are also up for bidding in Norway with a value of up to 5 billion NOKs (Johan Sverdrup, Maria and Viper-Kobra). On the other hand, termination of contracts are a hot issue. Petrobras has as an example just terminated all five Schahin rigs, Pemex has terminated several contracts as well. Low fixing activity and many terminations making the total demand for rigs weak. % Rig years Less rigs at work Offshore | Demand DRILLING UTILIZATION GLOBAL FIXING ACTIVITY 800 200 600 400 1.000 20132011 20152005 2007 2009 Jack-upFloater 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 201020092008 20152014201320122011 Jack-Up <300ft MDU average Jack-Up >300ftFloaters 27
  • 28. DNV GL © 2013 Number of scheduled deliveries in 2015 remains record high. As many as 880 vessels and units are up for delivery. Most likely around 30% will not be delivered this year. Weak market is to be blamed, however slippage and cancellations will bring some “relief”. The first agreements between owners and yards for postponed deliveries have been signed. Many more are expected to come through. For the first time in history, removals have started to accelerate in the drilling segment. At the end of May 2015 as many as 32 floaters have been announced for scrapping. Offshore contracting is expected to be low for in the coming years. Weak demand, large orderbook and high level of uncertainty will have a strong cool-down effect on the new building market. Owners have more focus on cost-cutting than expanding their fleets. During 2015 just three MOUs have been contracted (only one drilling unit). The OSV fleet has performed quite well, bearing the market situation. Globally, 106 vessels have been contracted ytd. PSVs and AHTs have the largest share with 39 and 38 contracts each. The contracting is expected to gain momentum in the coming years as market players start to position for the next up-cycle as well as for the necessary replacement of the older tonnage. Nevertheless, the oil price will dictate the future level of activity. No. of vessels No. of vessels Record high level of slippage and cancellations Offshore | Supply (EXPECTED) DELIVERIES & REMOVALS (EXPECTED) CONTRACTING 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 20202019201820172016201520142013201220112010 OSVMOU 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 700 600 500 400 201820172016201520142013201220112010 2019 2020 OSVMOU 28
  • 29. DNV GL © 2013 The MOU fleet comprises of 1800 units. Drilling segment represents the major part, with a fleet of around 900. Scrapping and slippage will slow down the fleet growth for the MOUs. The short term growth is expected to be around 4% after which it drops to less than 3% per year. The drilling fleet is old, despite high level of deliveries in the recent years. As many as 416 units are more then 30 years old (70 more than 40 years old), thus potential for scrapping is high. As the investment for a renewal of MOUs is quite significant scrapping becomes more and more an option nowadays. Number of drilling units without an employment rises. Since January the total number of unemployed units have increased from 262 to 298. The OSV fleet consists of 9600 vessels and growing by 4% per annum. AHTS and PSVs are the two largest segments with 3000 and 4000 vessels respectively. Activity level is soft in all regions. GoM deep-water activity has decreased to 51 active drilling units (down from 54). Vessel freight rates have decreased as well. In Africa, the oil major Total drives most of the very few tenders in the region. North Sea Area has seen falling rates as well. The over supply is not going to change anytime soon, as the demand is still very limited. Only the SEA region sees some improvement as tendering has picked up slightly. No. of vessels X 1.000 vessels Fleet development reduced by scrapping, slippage and cancellations Offshore | Supply MOU - FLEET DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE SUPPORT VESSELS – FLEET DEVELOPMENT 2.500 2.000 3.000 1.000 1.500 0 500 20162011 20182014 2015 2,3% 2,1% 2013 2,7% 2020 4,3% 2019 4,1% 2012 20172010 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 201720162015 2020201920182013201220112010 2014 Platform Supply vesselsOSV - OtherAHTS Well Intervention Accommodation Construction/ Maintenance Production/ Storage Drilling 29
  • 30. DNV GL © 2013 Offshore | Prices & Chartering Newbuilding prices seem to be unaffected so far. OSVs have started to see a small decline. The orderbook for yards and equipment manufacturer is still high, but this will not continue for much longer. Second hand prices have been hit much harder. Especially the old drilling units. A 6th generation floaters second hand price has dropped by 30% since 2012, 3rd generation has dropped with as much as 70% in the same period! The story is a bit different for old production units. Some years ago operators were mainly building new, modern and purpose built floating production units. Today they are often requesting older and more cheaper solutions. .000USD Per day Million USD Charter rates continue to fall. It’s a buyers market. Very few new fixtures are being announced and many of the ongoing charters are up for renegotiations. Some of the drilling contracts signed this year have seen up to 50% of the discount: - For the drillship Metro 1 a contract was signed in May 2013 for 18 months at 676,000USD a day. Just recently for the same unit a contract was signed for 20 weeks at the rate of 285,000 USD a day. - Ocean Rig Olympia was signed for 580.000 USD a day in 2012. The same unit has now signed an 8 month contract in Angola for 380,0000 only. TIME CHARTER RATES NEWBUILDING PRICES Charter rates on decline; contracts renegotiated 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 20152014201320122011201020092008 900 800 700 600 200 100 0 20152014201320122011201020092008 PSV AHTS Drillship Semi-sub Jack-Up PSV 4,000 dwt AHTS 240t BP FloaterSE Asia UDW Floater Sth America UDW FloaterGoM UDW 30
  • 31. DNV GL © 2013 FOCUS ON CRUISE SHIPS AND MULTI PURPOSE VESSELS
  • 32. DNV GL © 2013 By 2022, the worldwide cruise industry is expected to have a capacity to carry more than 30 million passengers, compared to 22 million this year. While this growth rate appears to be very high, the industry grew by about the same percentage over the past seven years from 2008 to 2015. The growth of the (now) mature markets of North America and Europe has slowed down naturally and the cruise lines are looking towards the Asia-Pacific for future growth. There is a special focus on China, which has to generate 5.0 million passengers yearly by 2022 to fill the fleet, according to the Cruise Industry News Annual Report 2015-2016. Travel operators in China are increasingly targeting elderly and retiring citizens, a fast-growing and important segment of the country’s expanding domestic tourism market. CRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELSCRUISE VESSELS Focus on | Cruise vessels China’s population of residents age 60 and above already amounts to more than 200 million, and is expected to account for a third of the population by 2050. China’s cruise ship industry is expected to expand to 4.5 million passengers a year by 2020, making it the world’s largest cruise market after the USA. So far in 2015, only one cruise ship newbuilding project was signed. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (USA) and Meyer Werft agreed to build a fourth Quantum-class ship for delivery in spring 2019. For the full year 2015, a total of 14 new contracts are expected. One of them could be Virgin Cruises. According to Italian sources, they are closing in on an agreement with Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri to build two large cruise ships. The Italian yard is in competition with Meyer Werft in Papenburg, Germany for the order of two large 170,000 GT vessels. For the 2015-2020 period, yearly contracting levels are expected to reach around 15 vessels per year. As a result of the upturn in newbuilding contracting during the last two years, deliveries are predicted to peak to 2.1mGT in 2018, compared to an average yearly delivery volume of 1.0mGT in the 2015-2017 period. The worldwide fleet is expected to grow from an average of 3.0% per year in the 2011-2014 period to yearly 6% for the 2015- 2020 period (based on GT), as a result of the trend towards cruise vessel upsizing. Strong future fleet growth to keep up with expected passenger growth 32 DNV GL classed “Pearl Mist” (2015), owned by Pearl Seas Cruises, sails on The Great Lakes, Panama Canal, Costa Rica and the Boston area.
  • 33. DNV GL © 2013 MULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELSMULTI PURPOSE VESSELS Focus on | Multi Purpose Vessels MPV operators that were relying on cargoes coming from the energy sector still suffer as well, because a lot of projects in the oil & gas sector were put on hold. The first positive sign for the MPV sector comes from the projection that tonnage demand is expected to increase 5% per year for the 2015-2019 period (with a bit lower growth for this and next year, and after that expected to pick up to 5% per year). Secondly, the MPV fleet is not expected to show any significant growth for the 2015-2020 period (based on DWT- capacity). This is the result of a longer period with relatively low newbuilding contracting and constant vessel scrapping activity. For the 2015-2020 period, newbuilding contracting levels are expected to average 2.1mDWT per year. For the current year and next year, somewhat lower levels are expected. Since the fleet demolition rate is foreseen around the same level (2.1mDWT per year), fleet growth will be marginal. Regarding the outlook for MPVs, it is the global economic development as well as the state of the containership- and dry bulk sectors that determine the demand for MPVs. Global economic activity triggers infrastructural projects and with these projects, the demand to transport the materials arises. Besides infrastructural projects, MPVs also hope to benefit from further expansion projects in the wind energy sector. Almost half way into the year 2015, there are first positive signs from market players about the outlook for multi purpose vessels. It is no longer expected that 2015 will bring “the turnaround” for the sector, but compared to the last couple of years the situation is somewhat better. At the same time, vessel earnings are still below levels that are sustainable for the future. For that reason, there are more and more initiatives where owners form alliances, or start to cooperate in another form. What has been unchanged, is that MPVs still experience strong competition from container vessels and smaller bulk carriers for breakbulk cargoes. With the markets down in both the dry bulk market and the container vessel segment, MPVs are hit from both sides. Demand for MPVs expected to increase, but still weak market conditions 33 DNV GL classed, “AAL Newcastle” (2014), 32,000 dwt
  • 34. DNV GL © 2013 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com The Trend Report is published by the Sales & Market Intelligence department. Contact persons for the respective chapters are: Market summary, Oil & Product Tankers Jakub Walenkiewicz Containerships, MPVs, Cruise vessels Jeffrey van der Gugten Bulk Carriers Pierre Pochard Offshore (Oil & Gas) Viktor Sinding-Larsen Philipp Westphal Head of Sales & Market Intelligence Business Development / Business Support Email: philipp.westphal@dnvgl.com Telephone: +49 40 36149 6197