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Current Situation in the Shipbuilding Industry and
Long Term World Shipbuilding Forecast (SAJ2015)
Hiroshi Iwamoto
The Shipbuilders’ Association of Japan
OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6)
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 2
1. Current Situation in the Shipbuilding Industry
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 3
1-1. History of Shipbuilding Industry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 14
Completions from 1965-2014 (million gt)
Value
Creation
is needed
suffering
situation again
Volume-
Oriented
Oil Crisis
(1973&1979)
Bankruptcy of
Lehman Brothers
(2008)
suffering situation
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 4
1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (1)
1. Human Resources
 As already pointed out, the current shipbuilding activities have
weakened the development of engineering to increase values of
our products from various aspects. While the workforce at the
shipbuilding site can be outsources to a certain extent, the
engineering power needs to grow from inner potentials.
 When the value creation scenario comes into the highlight, further
wider range of engineering capability becomes necessary.
 Inner potentials can only be enhanced through a closer
understanding of the company objectives and the management
need to be more transparent towards the younger generations.
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 5
2. Adaptability to New Marine Technology
As a result of more value creation thinking there seems to be,
although still limited, the ambitious attempts to apply new technology.
This has particularly been so in Japan on the LNG burning engine
related technologies, propulsion systems and energy saving devices,
emission controls, IT related systems.
Combining various technologies for environmental advantage as well
as energy saving is becoming a popular idea, which involves,
hardware and software.
While success stories are needed to create a more powerful
move in the industry, we also need to remember that against one
successful results, there could well be a few if not many efforts wasted
and more thoughts may be needed to improve efficiency.
1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (2)
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 6
1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (3)
3. Regulatory Development
This is a great concern where more stringent regulations for safety
and environmental protection are introduced every now and then.
Adaptability to those regulations will be a key issue for all shipyards and
it will very much depend on how the regulations are
implementation friendly.
Some regulations have been set in a rush to achieve results, and
there might be political importance in doing so, but if new technology is
involved in the rule making process, this needs to be done carefully in
order to prevent any undesired or unintended consequences
arising from lack of careful impact analysis. Once the rules are in
force, it will not be easy to take corrective actions.
Shipbuilders will have a large role to play in providing impact analysis.
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 7
2. Long Term World Shipbuilding Forecast (SAJ2015)
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 8
2-1. Introduction of SAJ Forecast
 has periodically been done since 1960’s, to support long-term
business strategy making of SAJ’s member companies.
 is based on both forecasts of future seaborne trade development
and future replacement.
➢ So, speculation orders, and short-term volatility of shipping
freight and shipbuilding price are NOT taken into account.
SAJ Forecast…
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 9
Newbuilding Requirement
by Ship Type Derived from…
Seaborne Trade
Based on various factors such as…
• GDP Growth
• Energy Consumption
• Population Increase
• Crude Steel Production/Consumption
Newbuilding Requirement
by Ship Type Derived from…
Replacement
Newbuilding Requirement
2-2. Rough Sketch of SAJ Forecast Methodology
SAJ’s Demolition Model
Ship Type (example) Age
Oil Tankers (200k+)
Bulk Carriers (100k+)
Containerships
25
24
28
50% of vessels assumed to be scrapped at
above age
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 10
2-3. Assumption of GDP Growth in SAJ2015
Based on economic outlooks of various organisations such as IMF, IEA and
EIA
GDP Growth Forecast (%)
2013-35 2013-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35
OECD 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9
Non-OECD 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.2
World 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 11
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
(mil. ton)
Crude & Product 5 Major Bulk Minor bulk Other Dry Gas (LNG, LPG etc.) SAJ2014
9,963
11,617
14,671
16,296
13,084
Forecast
(million ton)
Growth Rate between 2014-2035 2035 Share
Total Cargo 2.2%pa 16,296 100%
LPG/LNG 3.0%pa 697 4%
Container Cargo 3.6%pa 5,853 36%
Minor Bulk 2.4%pa 1,954 12%
Major Bulk 1.2%pa 4,013 25%
Oil 1.3%pa 3,780 23%
2-4. Seaborne Trade Forecast in SAJ2015
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 12
2-5. Replacement demand in SAJ2015
(age)
30-40*
Assumption of Average Scrap Age by Ship Type in SAJ2015
*depends on Shipsize or Shiptype
50% of vessels assumed to be scrapped at above ages and create replacement
demand.
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015
0
20
40
60
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Tankers Bulk Carriers Containerships Other Dry Cargo Ships
Gas Carriers (LNGCs & LPGCs) Others SAJ2015 SAJ2014
13
Mill. GT
41.8
52.4
69.9
96.2
29.3
34.0
43.5
57.4
Mill. CGT
Av.Newbuilding Requirement 2014-2035 Share
Total Newbuidings 63.4 Mill.GT 100%
Others(Offshore etc) 6.9 Mill.GT 11%
Gas Carrier 3.9 Mill.GT 6%
ODC Ship 5.2 Mill.GT 8%
Container Ship 17.1 Mill.GT 27%
Bulk Carrier 18.2 Mill.GT 29%
Tanker 12.1 Mill.GT 19%
Av.Newbuilding Requirement 2014-2035 Share
Total Newbuidings 40.2 Mill.CGT 100%
Others(Offshore etc) 10.8 Mill.CGT 27%
Gas Carrier 3.1 Mill.CGT 8%
ODC Ship 4.2 Mill.CGT 10%
Container Ship 9.0 Mill.CGT 22%
Bulk Carrier 8.4 Mill.CGT 21%
Tanker 4.9 Mill.CGT 12%
2-6. SAJ2015 Newbuilding Requirement Forecast (1)
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 14
2-6. SAJ2015 Newbuilding Requirement Forecast (2)
Mill. GT
2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2014-35
Requirement
from Replacement
19.8
(47%)
21.8
(42%)
33.3
(48%)
57.3
(60%)
32.1
(51%)
Requirement
from Seaborne Trade
22.0
(53%)
30.5
(58%)
36.5
(52%)
38.9
(40%)
31.3
(49%)
Total Newbuilding
Requirement
41.8 52.4 69.9 96.2 63.4
TheShipb
Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 15
Thank you for your attention

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Current situation in the shipbuilding industry

  • 1. Current Situation in the Shipbuilding Industry and Long Term World Shipbuilding Forecast (SAJ2015) Hiroshi Iwamoto The Shipbuilders’ Association of Japan OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6) Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015
  • 2. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 2 1. Current Situation in the Shipbuilding Industry
  • 3. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 3 1-1. History of Shipbuilding Industry 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 14 Completions from 1965-2014 (million gt) Value Creation is needed suffering situation again Volume- Oriented Oil Crisis (1973&1979) Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) suffering situation
  • 4. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 4 1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (1) 1. Human Resources  As already pointed out, the current shipbuilding activities have weakened the development of engineering to increase values of our products from various aspects. While the workforce at the shipbuilding site can be outsources to a certain extent, the engineering power needs to grow from inner potentials.  When the value creation scenario comes into the highlight, further wider range of engineering capability becomes necessary.  Inner potentials can only be enhanced through a closer understanding of the company objectives and the management need to be more transparent towards the younger generations.
  • 5. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 5 2. Adaptability to New Marine Technology As a result of more value creation thinking there seems to be, although still limited, the ambitious attempts to apply new technology. This has particularly been so in Japan on the LNG burning engine related technologies, propulsion systems and energy saving devices, emission controls, IT related systems. Combining various technologies for environmental advantage as well as energy saving is becoming a popular idea, which involves, hardware and software. While success stories are needed to create a more powerful move in the industry, we also need to remember that against one successful results, there could well be a few if not many efforts wasted and more thoughts may be needed to improve efficiency. 1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (2)
  • 6. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 6 1-2. Challenges for Value Creation Scenario (3) 3. Regulatory Development This is a great concern where more stringent regulations for safety and environmental protection are introduced every now and then. Adaptability to those regulations will be a key issue for all shipyards and it will very much depend on how the regulations are implementation friendly. Some regulations have been set in a rush to achieve results, and there might be political importance in doing so, but if new technology is involved in the rule making process, this needs to be done carefully in order to prevent any undesired or unintended consequences arising from lack of careful impact analysis. Once the rules are in force, it will not be easy to take corrective actions. Shipbuilders will have a large role to play in providing impact analysis.
  • 7. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 7 2. Long Term World Shipbuilding Forecast (SAJ2015)
  • 8. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 8 2-1. Introduction of SAJ Forecast  has periodically been done since 1960’s, to support long-term business strategy making of SAJ’s member companies.  is based on both forecasts of future seaborne trade development and future replacement. ➢ So, speculation orders, and short-term volatility of shipping freight and shipbuilding price are NOT taken into account. SAJ Forecast…
  • 9. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 9 Newbuilding Requirement by Ship Type Derived from… Seaborne Trade Based on various factors such as… • GDP Growth • Energy Consumption • Population Increase • Crude Steel Production/Consumption Newbuilding Requirement by Ship Type Derived from… Replacement Newbuilding Requirement 2-2. Rough Sketch of SAJ Forecast Methodology SAJ’s Demolition Model Ship Type (example) Age Oil Tankers (200k+) Bulk Carriers (100k+) Containerships 25 24 28 50% of vessels assumed to be scrapped at above age
  • 10. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 10 2-3. Assumption of GDP Growth in SAJ2015 Based on economic outlooks of various organisations such as IMF, IEA and EIA GDP Growth Forecast (%) 2013-35 2013-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 OECD 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 Non-OECD 5.0 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.2 World 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3
  • 11. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 11 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 (mil. ton) Crude & Product 5 Major Bulk Minor bulk Other Dry Gas (LNG, LPG etc.) SAJ2014 9,963 11,617 14,671 16,296 13,084 Forecast (million ton) Growth Rate between 2014-2035 2035 Share Total Cargo 2.2%pa 16,296 100% LPG/LNG 3.0%pa 697 4% Container Cargo 3.6%pa 5,853 36% Minor Bulk 2.4%pa 1,954 12% Major Bulk 1.2%pa 4,013 25% Oil 1.3%pa 3,780 23% 2-4. Seaborne Trade Forecast in SAJ2015
  • 12. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 12 2-5. Replacement demand in SAJ2015 (age) 30-40* Assumption of Average Scrap Age by Ship Type in SAJ2015 *depends on Shipsize or Shiptype 50% of vessels assumed to be scrapped at above ages and create replacement demand.
  • 13. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 0 20 40 60 80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Tankers Bulk Carriers Containerships Other Dry Cargo Ships Gas Carriers (LNGCs & LPGCs) Others SAJ2015 SAJ2014 13 Mill. GT 41.8 52.4 69.9 96.2 29.3 34.0 43.5 57.4 Mill. CGT Av.Newbuilding Requirement 2014-2035 Share Total Newbuidings 63.4 Mill.GT 100% Others(Offshore etc) 6.9 Mill.GT 11% Gas Carrier 3.9 Mill.GT 6% ODC Ship 5.2 Mill.GT 8% Container Ship 17.1 Mill.GT 27% Bulk Carrier 18.2 Mill.GT 29% Tanker 12.1 Mill.GT 19% Av.Newbuilding Requirement 2014-2035 Share Total Newbuidings 40.2 Mill.CGT 100% Others(Offshore etc) 10.8 Mill.CGT 27% Gas Carrier 3.1 Mill.CGT 8% ODC Ship 4.2 Mill.CGT 10% Container Ship 9.0 Mill.CGT 22% Bulk Carrier 8.4 Mill.CGT 21% Tanker 4.9 Mill.CGT 12% 2-6. SAJ2015 Newbuilding Requirement Forecast (1)
  • 14. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 14 2-6. SAJ2015 Newbuilding Requirement Forecast (2) Mill. GT 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2014-35 Requirement from Replacement 19.8 (47%) 21.8 (42%) 33.3 (48%) 57.3 (60%) 32.1 (51%) Requirement from Seaborne Trade 22.0 (53%) 30.5 (58%) 36.5 (52%) 38.9 (40%) 31.3 (49%) Total Newbuilding Requirement 41.8 52.4 69.9 96.2 63.4
  • 15. TheShipb Workshop on Supply and Demand in the Shipbuilding Industry, 9 November 2015 15 Thank you for your attention

Editor's Notes

  1. SAJ予測の紹介 ・SAJ予測は、1960年代から、会員会社の長期的経営戦略決定の支援のために行われている。 ・将来の「海上荷動き」と将来の「解撤」を基に作成される。よって、投機的需要や短期的なマーケット(海運や造船)の変動は考慮に入れていない。
  2. SAJ予測の予測手法の概略 ・海上荷動き予測は、GDP成長、エネルギー消費等を基に予測される。 ・解撤予測は、SAJの解撤モデルによって計算される。スクラップカーブを仮定し、将来の解撤量を予測する。表は、各船種における船腹の50%が解撤される船齢。 (例:200k+dwtのタンカーの場合、25才で50%が解撤される)
  3. SAJ2015におけるGDP成長の想定 ・2013年から2035年までの世界のGDP成長率を3.7%と想定。 ・この想定は、IMF、IEA、EIAなどの見通しを参考に作成した。
  4. SAJ2015における海上荷動き予測 ・海上荷動き量は、2014年の約100億トンから、約20年後の2035年には約163億トンにまで増加する。年平均成長率は2.2%。 ・LPG/LNGのガスやコンテナ荷動きが3%以上、一方で石油やメジャーバルクの荷動きが1.2-1.3%で成長する見込み。
  5. SAJ2015における船種別平均解撤年齢の前提 ・たとえば、タンカーなら船型にもよるが、25-30才で50%のタンカー船腹が解撤され、その解撤分が代替需要となる。
  6. SAJ2015建造需要量予測(船種別) ・GTベースで、2014-2020年までの建造需要は4,200万GTと低め。 ・それ以降は徐々に増加し、2030-2035年には9,600万GTに達する。 ・CGTベースでも傾向は同じ。海洋を含む、その他はCGTベースだとシェアが大きい。GT→CGTへの換算係数が他の船種より高いから。 【SAJ2014からの主な修正点】 ①タンカー、バルカーの上方修正(減速航行を勘案し輸送効率を下げる→それぞれの建造需要増加) ②海洋を主とするその他の下方修正(昨今の原油安を背景に、海洋関連の需要を下げる) 合計(GTベース):①>②ゆえ、昨年より需要量が増加。 合計(CGTベース):①=②。CGTへの換算係数の高い「その他」の下方修正が、①の上方修正分を吸収し、昨年と大差ない需要量に。
  7. SAJ2015建造需要量予測(海上荷動きと解撤からの需要) ・2030年までは海上荷動きからの需要が多い。 ・2030年以降は解撤需要の割合が60%を超える。2010年前後に竣工した大量の船舶が解撤期を迎えるから。