Wouter Koopman - SHELL

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LNG Outlook
Eurasian Natural Gas Infrastructure - 3rd Annual Conference
Wouter Koopman
Manager European Gas Affairs
1

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Definitions &
cautionary note
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of
Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions.
Discovered and prospective resources: Our use of the term “discovered and prospective resources” are consistent with SPE 2P + 2C + 2U definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
Underlying operating cost is defined as operating cost less identified items. A reconciliation can be found in the quarterly results announcement.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this release “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used
for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to
those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this release refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint
control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as
“associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-
party interest.
This release contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact
are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions
and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-
looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs,
estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’,
‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of
factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this release,
including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves
estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,
and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and
regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the
risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;
and (m) changes in trading conditions. There can be no assurance that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this
release are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These
risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this release and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
release, February 20, 2017. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new
information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this
release.
With respect to operating costs synergies indicated, such savings and efficiencies in procurement spend include economies of scale, specification standardisation and operating efficiencies across
operating, capital and raw material cost areas.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this release that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S.
Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
45% 18% 15% 13% 2% 7%
4
Global energy demand growth by fuel (bcm)
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2016 data
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
45%
26%
22% 7%
Global gas demand growth by sector (bcm)
GLOBAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH BY REGION (BCM)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
39%
25%
15%
21%
Global gas demand growth by region (bcm)
Gas playing a prominent role in meeting growing energy demand

5. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
Gas provides competitive, flexible, cleaner energy
Average Time Required To Come Online, Minutes
Supporting renewable generation growth
Capital Cost Of Power Plants KW/yr
Gas plants are cheaper to build & operate
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
Biomass CC Geothermal Offshore
Wind
Dual
Nuclear
Solar
Thermal
Photovoltaic Coal Single
Unit
Hydro Onshore
Wind
CCGT
lb/MWh gross
Addressing local air quality concerns
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
SO2 NOx PM2.5
5
Negligible
emissions from
gas
Coal Emissions, Supercritical Pulverized Coal Boiler Natural Gas CCGTOvernight Capital Cost ($/kW) Fixed Operation & Maintenance Cost ($/kW-yr) RHS
Time to synchronise with grid Time to reach full load
Negligible
emissions from
gas
300
15
85
80
22
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Coal
Gas CCGT
Gas Large OCGT
Source: IEA, NETL 2015-Cost & Performance baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, NETL; Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas, DECC
Life-cycle GHG Emissions: kg CO2e/MWh,100-year Global Warming Potential
518
1,133
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Average Natural Gas Fleet, baseload Coal Average Fleet, baseload
Facilitating climate change objectives
54% lower than coal
emissions

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Policymakers increasingly choose gas
6
Leaders’ Communique pledged to ‘enhance collaboration on solutions that promote natural gas’ as ‘a less emission-
intensive fossil fuel’
170+ members agreed sulphur limit in shipping fuel of 0.5% from 2020
LNG as a fuel contains virtually zero sulphur vs. 3.5% specification for global marine fuel today
13th Five Year Plan targets 45 bcm of incremental gas consumption by 2020. China has suspended more than 100
coal-fired plants either approved or under construction
“We have given priority to move towards a gas based economy. Effort must be made to increase
natural gas production while also creating import infrastructure to meet the growing domestic demand.’’
Prime Minister Modi
France and Canada announced plans to phase out coal fired generation by 2023 and 2030 respectively. They join
Austria, Belgium, Britain, Denmark and Portugal in pledging to close coal fired generation by the end of the next
decade
EU Liquefied Natural Gas Strategy acknowledged critical role of gas in support of energy security, increasing
competitiveness and greenhouse gas emissions targets

7. Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
PM 2.5
Gas to Coal
ratio
Emission reduction policies drive increased gas demand
7
UK: Lower CO2 emissions Beijing: Improving air quality
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
MtCO2eTWh
UK Power Dynamics
£18/t CO2e floor
kicked in
Action Plan for
Air Pollution
Prevention
Beijing
Olympic
Games
Closure
of coal
boilers
Germany: Static CO2 emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
MtCO2eTWh
German Power Dynamics
Power CO2 Emissions
WHO PM 2.5
guidance
Coal generation PM 2.5 Gas vs. coal consumption ratioPower CO2 Emissions Coal generation
Gas generation Gas generation
Source: Aurora Energy Research; Embassy of the USA – Beijing, China; National Bureau of Statistics of China

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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annualized capacity additions
Share online
MTPA
Capacity additions
One-third of new LNG supply growth already online
LNG volume set to expand 50% from 2014 to 2020
8
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS (LNG Waterborne Trade, Liquefaction Projects Database) and
Wood Mackenzie Q4 2016 data
265
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
MTPA
Delivered volume
Note: only includes projects online by 2016 or currently under construction

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-5
0
5
10
15
20
Total exports Australia US Rest of World
Growth in LNG demand absorbed increase in supply
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS data, delivered volumes
Net exports: 2016 YoY Net imports: 2016 YoY
Million tonnes
9
Million tonnes
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Total imports Rest of World Northwest Europe

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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
A-rated B-rated Non-investment grade
Trend to shorter and smaller contracts with emerging buyers
10
Average contract length, years Average contract volume, MTPA LNG buyer credit ratings
Investment grade
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
4
8
12
16
20
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS (Energy LNG Sales Contracts
Database), Moody’s and Fitch data

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New FIDs required to meet demand growth after 2020
LNG supply/demand gap
11
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LNG supply in operation LNG supply under construction Demand forecasts
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
MTPA
Overview of LNG FIDs
MTPA
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2016, IHS, Poten, Gas Strategies and PFC.

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Changing drivers of LNG demand growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LNG imports by role in meeting gas demand (MTPA)
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2016 data
* Denotes new or emerging LNG importing countries
Gas supply solely
dependent on LNG
 Japan
 Korea
 Taiwan
 Puerto Rico
 Dominican
Republic
 Jamaica*
 Panama*
Balances LNG supply  Northwest Europe
Bunker fuel
LNG demand driver
 Atlantic
Countries/regions
 Middle East  Pacific
LNG complements
domestic and pipeline
supply
 Southern Cone
 Eastern Europe
 Southern Europe
 North America
 China
 Singapore
 Morocco*
 Jordan*
 Israel
 India
 Thailand
 Indonesia
 Malaysia
 Pakistan*
LNG replaces
declining domestic
production into
existing demand
 Egypt*
 Kuwait
 UAE
 Colombia*
 Bangladesh*
 Bahrain*
 Philippines*
 Vietnam*
12

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LNG to take larger share of European gas demand
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
LNG
Russia pipe
Other pipe
Algeria
Norway pipe
Indigenous production
2035 demand forecast range:
540-575 bcm
13
European gas supply (bcm)
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2016, IHS, and Eurogas data

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Potential demand upside from transport sector
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Heavy duty and marine transport LNG industry LNG for transport -
Forecast range
Heavy duty Marine
14
MTPA equivalent, 2025
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and IHS
 LNG contributes virtually zero
sulphur emissions and has reduced
particulates and NOx emissions,
compared to heavy fuel oil.
 LNG can help reduce the well-to-
wheel emissions compared to
conventional fuels.

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Summary
 Strong growth in LNG supply in 2016, one-third of new supply online
 LNG demand growth from China, India and new entrants absorbed supply growth in 2016
 Continued LNG supply growth to 2020
 Global demand for gas is expected to increase by 2% a year between 2015 and 2030; LNG
is set to rise at twice that rate at 4 to 5%
 Future LNG demand growth will be driven by: policy, floating storage regasification units,
replacing declining domestic gas production, small scale LNG and transport
 LNG and Russian gas imports required to balance European gas demand
 New investments required to meet growing LNG demand after 2020
 LNG trade is changing to meet the evolving needs of buyers, including shorter-term and lower-
volume contracts
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