DEVELOPING DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL FOR FMCG PRODUCT
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This document discusses two major areas of focus: demand forecasting and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). It notes that demand forecasting involves estimating consumer purchases, while FMCG are packaged consumable goods like toiletries and packaged food that people buy regularly. Accurate demand forecasting at the stock keeping unit (SKU) level is important for efficient operations and good customer service. The document then outlines forecasting techniques and errors, as well as the need to model adjustments to software-generated forecasts. It proposes developing a demand forecasting model for non-homogenous products and a comprehensive FMCG forecasting framework using Bayesian approaches to obtain flexible, robust and optimal estimates and forecasts.
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Professors Neena Sondhi and Afsha Dokadia wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The authors do not intend
to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The authors may have disguised certain names and other
identifying information to protect confidentiality.
This publication may not be transmitted, photocopied, digitized, or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means without the
permission of the copyright holder. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights
organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Ivey Business School, Western
University, London, Ontario, Canada, N6G 0N1; (t) 519.661.3208; (e) cases@ivey.ca; www.iveycases.com.
Copyright © 2016, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation Version: 2016-06-29
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Professors Neena Sondhi and Afsha Dokadia wrote this case solely to provide material for class discussion. The authors do not intend
to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a managerial situation. The authors may have disguised certain names and other
identifying information to protect confidentiality.
This publication may not be transmitted, photocopied, digitized, or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means without the
permission of the copyright holder. Reproduction of this material is not covered under authorization by any reproduction rights
organization. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, contact Ivey Publishing, Ivey Business School, Western
University, London, Ontario, Canada, N6G 0N1; (t) 519.661.3208; (e) cases@ivey.ca; www.iveycases.com.
Copyright © 2016, Richard Ivey School of Business Foundation Version: 2016-06-29
In 2015, Anil Pathak was appointed the new chairman of Australian Foods Private Limited (Cookie Man).
The Cookie Man brand was originally franchised in 2000 to Australian Foods India Private Limited (AFI),
a joint venture between Cookie Man and Paracor Capital Advisors (Paracor), an Indian private equity firm.
The bakery chain began its journey in Chennai, Tamil Nadu and now operated 70 outlets in 25 Indian cities.
Wish you a very happy new year and please convey the same to the students in your respective sections.
I am attaching my copy of the case study on 'Cookie Man' which is scheduled for the forthcoming class
on Retailing in your respective sections. Group No. 1-6 have to prepare presentations and students of
Group 7-12 have to come prepared for discussions after reading the case.
Th questions to be answered are as follows:
1. How is the biscuit market in India in 2015? What are the key advantages and disadvantages for Cookie
Man (CM) due to the market situation?
2. What are the key elements of CM marketing strategy? What are the strengths and weaknesses of their
business model?
3. How well ahs the CM brand performed? Justify.
4 Pathak is considering different growth engines for CM brand. Examine pros and cons of each. What
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Shopper's Stop - Case Study Cracked (Marks 8/10)
Hello Students,
Pls make corrections as this was not my final PPT and also add Net Generation Para of the case study which is not in Ppt.
Kindly leave a comment if you download.
Best Luck!!
Rgds,
Tushar
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The ~$600 Bn grocery industry in India is undergoing
a similar disruption enabled by eGrocery platforms,
that have done a tremendous job in transforming how
people shop for their groceries. While these platforms
have solved for a number of consumer needs ranging
from improved access to higher convenience, the largest
challenge still faced by an average Indian is around
affordability and eGrocery platforms have the potential to
effectively resolve this aspect.
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Second appointment with the LUISS MBA Part-Time students, to talk about Fast Moving Consumer Goods Industry, one of the most dynamic and biggest in the world: an enormous global market made up of very famous brands that we use every day, distribute everywhere in the world. A safety bet, even in recession times, such these last years, because the demand for this kind of brands doesn’t fall...!
A world where also career is fast: where you immediately start to think bigger and better, to manage a big amount of money, to cover heavy responsibility and work on big project. that can influence the consumer’s habits and choice.
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The document discusses distribution channels for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in India. It defines distribution channels and FMCG goods. It then discusses the growth of the FMCG market in India in the 1990s and 2000s, the importance of strong distribution channels for FMCG companies, and different structures for distribution in rural and urban areas, including the use of cooperatives and mandi towns for rural distribution. It also covers modern distribution channels and evaluates different phases of distribution models used by companies.
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Distribution Channel In FMCG
This document discusses distribution channels in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry in India. It begins with defining FMCG as short shelf-life, low margin, and high volume consumer packaged goods like cold drinks, soap, and processed food. It then notes that the Indian FMCG market is expected to reach $12.5 billion by 2015 and $20.6 billion by 2020, driven by urban consumers and food, personal care, and fabric care products. The document goes on to define distribution channels as the path products flow through, and explains that FMCG companies rely on strong distribution to cover large markets of daily necessities with perishable items requiring high sales volumes for profitability. It identifies three main distribution channels -
A Roadmap To World Class Forecasting Accuracy
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FMCG industry
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and ITC Ltd are two major players in India's FMCG sector. While HUL is a pure-play FMCG company with a wide portfolio of household and personal care brands, ITC has a larger reliance on its tobacco business. However, ITC is diversifying into non-tobacco FMCG segments like food and personal care. Both companies follow different strategies - HUL focuses on overall low costs and quality, while ITC leverages its large distribution network and rural procurement model. Their future growth will depend on new product launches and investments in brand building.
FMCG Sector of INDIA
The document discusses India's fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. It notes that the FMCG sector contributes around 3% to India's GDP and provides 3 million jobs. The market is over Rs. 85,000 crores and includes household care, personal care, and food and beverages. It also profiles the top 3 FMCG companies in India - Hindustan Unilever Ltd., ITC Ltd., and Dabur India Ltd. The FMCG sector is expected to maintain robust growth, reaching a size of Rs. 620,000 crores by 2020. Rural India represents a major untapped market potential as rural consumers account for around 55% of total FMCG sales.
FMCG
The document discusses the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector in India. It notes that FMCG is the fourth largest sector in India with a current market size of $13 billion expected to grow to $33 billion by 2015. FMCG products are characterized as frequently purchased, low cost items that are replaced within a year. The major segments of FMCG are household care, personal care, and food and beverages. Major players in the Indian FMCG market include ITC Limited, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, and Dabur India. The evolution and growth of the Indian FMCG market from 1950 to the present is also summarized.
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demand forecasting techniques
Demand forecasting estimates future demand for a product over a period of time. Engro Foods uses a combination of qualitative, causal, and opinion poll methods for sales and demand forecasting. The qualitative method uses historical data and management judgment. The causal method links demand to economic and pricing factors. The opinion poll method collects insights from sales experts. Engro Foods could improve forecasts by also using trend and smoothing techniques.
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- 1. BY Gagan
- 2. Two major focusing areas DEMAND FORECASTING the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. FMCG Packaged consumable goods People buy at regular interval Ex., Toiletries Soaps and detergents Cosmetics Pharmaceuticals Further, the packaged food products and drinks are also sold under the FMCG, since these mobile phones, MP3 players, external hard drives.
- 3. Importance of Demand Forecasting at SKU level efficient operations & high levels of customer service Underestimation Poor service Additional ordering expenses Overestimation Dead stock Losses of investments
- 4. FMCG Indian FMCG Sector is expected to reach USD 33.4 billion by the year 2015. Development by the Indian government. Increase in the disposable income. Uncertainty in demand
- 7. The Need of Modelling of Adjustments 61.2 % of users make regular managerial adjustments to software generated forecasts Experts examine the model-based forecast st,i and can adjust it in the light of their domain knowledge. The final forecast becomes ft,i=st,i + at,i where at,i - size of adjustment, Judgmentally adjusted forecasts are Highly subjective Biased and inefficient Statistical modelling of adjustments is needed to Improve the quality of the final forecasts by optimally handling the available information Obtain objective interval forecasts
- 8. The Proposed Developments The study aim: Development of a demand forecasting model for products following non-homogeneous demand pattern Development of a comprehensive framework for demand forecasting of FMCG products. The proposed developments are based on Bayesian approach, which allows to use more flexible and robust modes obtain exact interval forecasts find optimal estimations according to a specified loss function
- 9. Research Methodology Application of Quantitative techniques for development of forecasting model.
- 10. THANK YOU…..