The document discusses how humans are poor decision makers due to numerous cognitive biases that cause irrational behavior. It explains that real-world decision making often involves hastily choosing the first option without proper analysis or review, unlike the ideal process of considering alternatives and revisiting choices. Some recommendations are provided on improving decision making through understanding cognitive biases, engaging imagination, probabilistic reasoning, assigning credibility scores to information sources, and promoting diversity.

1. How we got here today!

3. “We're blind to our
blindness.We have very
little idea of how little
we know.We're not
designed to know how
little we know” Daniel Kahneman
Author:Thinking Fast & Slow

4. Just how bad are we
at making decisions?

5. encounter
a choice
analyze
options
choose
a path
revisit if
it doesn’t
workout
Ideal-world decision process

6. Real-world decision process
encounter
a choice
pick the first
or most
convenient
option
choose
that option
no criteria,
no timely
re-evaluation
we get
emotionally a
attached to
the option

7. 188 Cognitive
Biases
Identified

8. How biased are you?

9. 18 Cognitive Biases
Causing Havoc
in Business

10. We’re not rational!

11. We’re not rational!!!

12. We are just a big bag of chemicals
serotonin
dopamine
norepinephrine
anandamide
oxytocin
endorphins
testosterone

13. What’s happening inside our heads?

14. Antagonistic Neural Networks

16. V - Volatile U - Uncertain
C - Complex A - Ambiguous

18. OK… we’re that bad!
What can you do about it?

19. Decision making basics
From “A Decision Architecture White Paper”, Dr. David G Ullman, 2016

20. Decision making basics
From “A Decision Architecture White Paper”, Dr. David G Ullman, 2016
1. Organisation’s Attitude
2. Stakeholders & Ownership
3. Objectives & Criteria Clear
4. Alternative Space
5. Information & Analysis
6. Appropriate Decision Process
7. Risk Consideration
8. Clear when decision is made
9. Record, Review & Reuse
10.Decision Buy-in

21. Understanding Decision Dynamics

22. Imagination is a must!!!
no imagination == no options

23. Engage in probabilistic reasoning &
understand risk tolerance
% probability
of penalty
% probability
of expected
value

24. Factor in believability, assign credibility scores
But don’t forget about bias
96%
50%
20%
Dunning Kruger
Semmelweiss
Effect
Silent
Disagreement

25. Antidote to Antagonistic Nets

26. …Looking To The Future

27. AI-powered Boards?

28. AI-powered Boards?
• Information & Risk Analysis
• Stakeholder Engagement
• Bias Alerts
• Optimal environments Checks
• Reviewing & Recording
• Communicating

29. Ambient Intelligence & the Answer Cloud

30. Flow-hacking

31. Smart, Quantified & Connected

32. Micro-dosing

33. Diversity is key to good decision making

34. Good luck!
The future is murky &
unclear!!!

35. Appendix &
References

36. Wiki - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
CogLode - http://coglode.com/
Thinking Fast & Slow –Daniel Kahneman https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-
Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Hooked - Nir Eyal -
https://read.amazon.com/kp/embed?asin=B00NW01MKM&preview=newtab&linkCode=kpe&ref_
=cm_sw_r_kb_dp_kSj-AbG3WSKA5
Satir - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Satir
Your Brain at Work – David Rock - https://www.amazon.com/Your-Brain-Work-Strategies-
Distraction/dp/0061771295
Danny Kahneman & Sam Harris - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKLE3TmtFhY

37. Jeff Bezos Shareholders Letter - https://www.scribd.com/book/344982413/Amazon-2016-Letter-to-
Shareholders
Decisive – Chip & Dan Heath - https://www.scribd.com/book/344982413/Amazon-2016-Letter-to-
Shareholders
Delegation Boards & Delegation Cards - https://management30.com/practice/delegation-board/
HBR - https://hbr.org/2010/06/the-decision-driven-organization
Choice Architecture - https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron/475/choice.architecture.pdf
WRAP Process - http://heathbrothers.com/ot/wp-
content/uploads/2013/03/The_WRAP_Process_one_pager.pdf
Decision Making White Paper – Dr. David G Ullman - https://eapj.org/wp-
content/uploads/2017/06/Decision-Architecture-Whitepaper-Part-1.pdf
AI in the boardroom:- https://slate.com/technology/2019/03/artificial-intelligence-corporate-
board-algorithm.html