Uncertainty and your brain
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Conference presentation. What cognitive biases affect the way we think about risk? How does an Agile approach help to manage risk and what tactical practices can you apply?
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This document provides an overview of risk management for startups. It discusses the high failure rates of businesses, with poor risk management being a leading cause. It defines risk and outlines various types of risks that startups may face, including market, competitive, technology, operational, financial, legal and more. The document explains risk identification, assessment and mitigation, and provides a framework for prioritizing risks based on likelihood and consequences. It emphasizes the importance of identifying and addressing "killer" risks that could threaten the viability of the business. Finally, the document presents a pragmatic approach to developing a risk management plan.
How Four Statistical Rules Forecast Who Wins a Competitive Bid
Can Bayesian statistics really determine in advance if the bid you are offering will be the winner or just another loser? And, if the metrics forecast a loss, can the same algorithm tell you what to change in order to win instead?
Competitive bidding is where big money sales opportunities are won or lost, and there are four (4) rules that can help you turn a losing situation into a winning sale.
These four rules help you better understand what the customer wants, examine what competitors might do in response and how to beat them, while helping you to offer the best bid, optimized for yours and your prospective customer’s intended outcome. Statistical metrics evaluate your probability of success against the competition and help you more objectively determine how to win. But how can you get at the foundational issues that will determine who will win?
Learning objectives:
Learn the Four Rules that help you understand what will actually determine the customer’s decision.
Visualize your bid head-to-head against the competition and employ objective metrics to determine if you will win.
Identify weaknesses in your offer that must be improved for your bid to beat the competition.
Bill Zangwill is a Professor, Emeritus, from the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. He has authored four published books, one of which was selected by the Library Journal as “One of the Best Business Books of the Year,” and had over 50 papers in academic journals. In addition, he has had three articles published in the Wall Street Journal. His consulting engagements include top firms such as IBM, AT&T, Motorola, many smaller firms and the US government. He has also taught at the University of Illinois and the University of California, Berkeley. He is considered one of the most innovative thinkers in his field.
Bill will present 30 minutes on how the four rules can help you turn a losing situation into a winning sale and will be joined by webinar moderator Arik Johnson, Founder & Chairman at Aurora WDC.
Decision ninja Patrice Blanchard
Bias and heuristics are great ways of saving energy by avoiding to think too much when it is necessary to take a decision. It is important to be aware of them to avoid taking systematically the wrong decision.
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Enterprise risk management (ERM) uses a holistic approach to identify, assess, and manage risks across an organization. Data science can enhance ERM by providing comprehensive data management, predictive risk analytics through techniques like modeling loss distributions, and real-time risk reporting dashboards. While ERM traditionally relied on closed-form solutions and historical data, modern approaches use data analytics like machine learning models to better predict outliers and risks with limited data.
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This document discusses identifying and addressing risks in a business startup. It notes that the problem, solution, team, impact and customers are all uncertain at the startup phase. While uncertainty is not the same as risk, risk is a cousin of uncertainty. The document outlines how uncertainty decreases and risk decreases as a startup progresses through stages from idea to growth. It recommends addressing customer uncertainty/risk first since that is typically the biggest risk. The document advocates using a structured approach like the Business Model Canvas to zoom in on customer risk and reduce the unknowns in that area through experiments and learning.
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This document provides a summary of a presentation on persuasive e-commerce. It discusses how online conversion rates are typically much lower than offline rates due to a lack of certain in-person factors. It then covers cognitive biases and how the unconscious mind works, noting most decisions are made unconsciously. Finally, it outlines different persuasion techniques like social proof, scarcity, and removing friction that can be applied to e-commerce to increase online conversions. The presentation concludes with a discussion of how personalized, automated persuasion may be used in the future to target individual customers.
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The modified version of the Innovation Culture talk trimmed down to one hour for the Stanford chapter of ASES (Asia-Pacific Student Entrepreneurship Society).
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The document discusses improving decision making through behavioral change and human factors. It notes that people ultimately make the difference and achieving more through collaboration. While most training does not change behavior, blending psychology and management can support sustainable behavioral change. Common errors in thinking and reasons for rule violations are outlined. Risk perception factors and a framework for personal and business risk management are also provided. Overall, the document emphasizes that the best decisions involve learning from others through social interactions and ensuring diverse sources of independent ideas.
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Overview
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Uncertainty and your brain
- 1. UNCERTAINTY AND YOUR BRAIN Handling risk in an agile environment TAC conference 2019
- 2. Wayne Hetherington Agile Coach at agile42 Vivian Xu Scrum Master / IT Project Manager at BMO Presenters
- 3. 1 2 3 Open a browser on any laptop, tablet or smartphone Go to http://etc.ch/eBWh Answer the three questions Live Poll Quiz: Busting Brain Myths https://directpoll.com/r?XDbzPBd3ixYqg8uaeBAdQQpzmHAcSh5kAjPp0e7gE Uncertainty and Your Brain
- 4. Thinking Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman Predictably Irrational Dan Ariely Introduction
- 5. Bias Confirmation Bias Heuristic Availability Heuristic Fallacy Conjunction Fallacy Illusion Illusion of Transparency Paradox Cobb’s Paradox Basic Cognitive Terms
- 6. Risk Management Identify Threat, failure, loss, exposure Assess Risk-exposure factor = (% probability of loss) * (size of loss in weeks) Manage Accept, Avoid, Control, Transfer, Monitor
- 7. Ultimatum Game Rules of the Game • Pick a partner. One will be the “Proposer” The other will be the “Responder” • The Proposer will be granted $10 of play money. • The Proposer will have to share the money with the Responder. Decide how much money to offer the Responder. Make the offer. • The Responder can either accept or reject the proposal. If the offer is accepted, you both keep the money. If the offer is rejected, nobody keeps any money.
- 9. Risk Biases Endowment Effect Peltzman Effect Sunk Cost Fallacy Which do you think is a better improvement? • Increase 60% to 65% • Increase 0% to 5% • Increase 95% to 100% Certainty Effect Possibility Effect
- 10. Prospect Theory Four Fold Pattern High Probability (Certainty Effect) Low Probability (Possibility Effect) Gains Losses 95% Chance to WIN $10000 Fear of disappointment (accept a settlement) Risk Averse 95% Chance to LOSE $10000 Hope to avoid loss (take the risky operation) Risk Seeking 5% Chance to WIN $10000 Hope of a large gain (buy a lottery ticket) Risk Seeking 5% Chance to LOSE $10000 Hope to avoid loss (buy insurance) Risk Averse
- 11. Knowledge gained in the first 25% of the product 38.75% more knowledge gained during the product Cone of Uncertainty [Craig Gmyrek https://dzone.com/articles/uncertainty-knowledge-and-scrum-sprints]
- 13. How to Handle Risk
- 14. Tactical Approaches to Risk Six Thinking Hats http://www.debonogroup.com/six_thinking_hats.php TRIZ Liberating Structures http://www.liberatingstructures.com/6-making-space-with-triz/ Pessimist Day What it is What it is not High level (epic) Too detailed (story) Quick and lightweight A risk log Awareness Solutions Critical Negative Schedule 1 day as part of high-level planning where program teams can collaborate with the risk department. Break into groups to consider up coming high level features with a Black-hat approach.
- 15. Please leave us your feedback!