Are You Thinking What You Think You're Thinking?
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Slides from a presentation given by Liz Calder to a meeting of IIBA UK's North Branch in Skipton on 12 July 2018
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Are You Thinking What You Think You're Thinking?
- 1. Dr Liz Calder Blue Raccoon Limited IIBA UK Skipton – 12 July 2018 Are you thinking what you think you are thinking?
- 2. It happens to the best
- 3. “The Brain is fundamentally a lazy piece of meat” Gregory Berns Z
- 4. So what are Cognitive Biases? Shortcuts the brain takes to be able to get from one end of the day to the other. That don’t come up with the rational best solution.
- 5. Is this it?
- 6. Is this it? Too Much Information We notice things already in memory We find things that match our beliefs Funny or odd things stick out We spot the changes
- 7. Is this it? Too Much Information Not Enough Meaning We find stories and patterns We simplify numbers and probabilities We assume things we like are better We stereotype
- 8. Is this it? Too Much Information Need to Act Fast Not Enough Meaning We continue with things we have started We prefer the thing we see first We do what we feel is important We pick simple solutions
- 9. Is this it? Too Much Information Need to Act Fast What Should We Remember? Not Enough Meaning We store memories by how we experienced them We reduce things to key elements We edit some memories after the fact We generalise
- 10. Everything that the brain sees or hears or touches has multiple interpretations. The one that is ultimately chosen is simply the brain’s best guess at interpreting what flows into it.
- 11. If we’ve been doing it for millennia, how important are they really?
- 12. Remember this story from last year?
- 13. Why do they matter to you as a BA?
- 14. Elicitation and Collaboration Lets talk workshops How do you run your workshops?
- 15. Let me guess, it ends up looking something like this.
- 16. Or this
- 17. Or this
- 18. Or this
- 19. Do you ask people to put down their thoughts individually before sharing ideas? Do you break people up into smaller groups?
- 20. You are probably already familiar with the bandwagon effect Do you ask people to put down their thoughts individually before sharing ideas? Do you break people up into smaller groups?
- 21. Design me your perfect team!
- 22. You will end up with something completely different!
- 23. Requirements Analysis What Cognitive Biases could impact you here?
- 24. Let me tell you about Linda Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She got a 1st in philosophy. As a student she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice. She also participated in anti war demonstrations Is it more likely she is a bank teller, or a feminist bank teller?
- 25. The Conjunction Fallacy 90 % of people get this wrong! What could this mean when you are exploring options with stakeholders? Bank Teller Feminist bank teller
- 26. The Power of Now or Hyperbolic Discounting • One marshmallow now or 2 marshmallows in 20 minutes • £5 now or £10 in a year The Hyperbolic Discounting Effect is why people show a preference for a reward that arrives sooner rather than later.
- 27. Design Definition Cognitive biases can be important when you are writing your business cases.
- 28. Anchoring A pound to a penny , you all use this already if you write business cases. • Option 1 - $1,500,000 • Option 2 - $1,000,000 • Option 3 - $500,000
- 29. Taking it one step further • Option 1 - $1,500,000 • Option 2 - $1,000,000 • Option 3 - $500,000 • Option 1 - $1.5M • Option 2 - $1M • Option 3 - $0.5M
- 30. Losses and gains are not equivalent People want to avoid losing £10 roughly twice as much as they want to gain £10 Loss Aversion Cognitive Bias
- 31. BA Planning Planning and estimating are a key part of any IT project. Often described as a ‘Black Art’………
- 32. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it! We underestimate the time it will take us to do something Average Best Worst No of days
- 33. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it! We underestimate the time it will take us to do something We do this, even when we KNOW how long it has taken us to do this in the past Average Best Worst Actual Average No of days
- 34. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it! We underestimate the time it will take us to do something We do this, even when we KNOW how long it has taken us to do this in the past It only affects estimates of how long it will take us to do something. When we estimate for someone else to do the work we over estimate! Average Best Worst Actual Average No of days
- 35. So what can you do? Half of being smart is knowing what you are dumb about Solomon Short
- 36. Can you avoid them? No, not completely Sadly, there is such a thing as the Bias blind spot. Everyone is less likely to detect bias in themselves than others
- 37. They can be pretty inescapable Most of us know that these are the same size. But the bottom one still looks bigger….. This is the Jastrow Illusion
- 40. What can we learn? Rest Eat Move
- 41. What else?
- 42. What else? Pre- Mortem Before a project starts:- As a team, imagine every problem that could come up • Focus on the show stoppers • Pick the ones that are likely to happen • Agree solutions
- 44. Mix things up!
- 47. What else? Pre- Mortem Mix Things Up Slow Down Get other opinions
- 49. Cognitive biases are most likely to affect you when • You have too much information • You need to act fast • You don’t know what you should remember • There isn’t enough meaning
- 50. Thank you
Editor's Notes
- 1
- Cognitive bias is not about being stupid or not thinking enough. Even judges do it Study done in 2010 when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo. They are intelligent peopl who believe they are making logic based decisions, but the graph seems to show otherwise
- Gregory Burns the author of iconoclast His study of innovative thinking of why some people can think innovatively &other’s can't The brain uses a lot of energy and to be efficient it looks for something familiar when it's faced with new. This is my first time in this building am I worried that the ceiling may fall down no because my brain is using information about modern buildings I don't have the time or energy to assess every building I going to do my brain just take a shortcut on the basis that we’ve never been inone that’s fallen down before
- Cognitive- to do with thinking Bias – tendency to behave and believe one way with out evidence. You may have heard people talk of ‘Lizard Brain’ and ‘Monkey Brain’ Or of Kahneman’s Type 1 & type 2 brains. Basically the current model for our brains is that we have a part of our brain, that responds really quickly, focussed on survival and quick actions without having to weigh up all the options. This is the type 1 or lizard brain The other part of our brain is slower and more logical and makes factual decisions. In business analysis we want to favour logical based decisions over survival based ones.
- Here is the cognitive bias codex. If you are interetsted then I suggest that you look this up on line. But I know that this is impossible to read on s screen so here is the summary
- There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas. You can be tripped up in many ways.
- There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas. You can be tripped up in many ways.
- There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas. You can be tripped up in many ways.
- There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas. You can be tripped up in many ways.
- We notice what matters to us I had a friend who used to work in a paper goods factory and….. My Dad worked in the restaurant business and…. Everyone else is oblivious to that What are you oblivious to that matters?
- These have enabled our survival, surely we can live with them.
- So how important are they? The computers in the hospitals were running Windows XP. They hadn’t been upgraded, because, like they still work and nothing has happened so far…. If that isn’t an example of the optismisn bias in action then I don’t know what is!
- From the BABOK All these knowledge areas contain tasks that require you to work with stakeholders Stakeholders are people You are a person Cognitive biases affect people They can impact everything you do
- They are a common method for strategy development, business needsand planning
- When I scan through the phots on my phone it is full of pictures of post its Different colours, different shapes sharpie pens. Still post its
- We know that there are limitations to workshops You are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect. Bandwagon Bandwagon effect Shutting up the big mouths Allowing more ideas to come out
- You are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect. BYou are already trying to mitgate the bandwagon effect. Bandwagon Bandwagon effect Shutting up the big mouths Allowing more ideas to come out
- Sticking with the Status quo
- Have you heard of the Lego serious play method? There was a session on it last year, which I missed. You will et something completely different Give them a different tool and
- Is it more likely she is a bank teller, or a feminist bank teller.
- 90% of people get this wrong. The more you know, the more likely you thin k it is = The conjunction fallacy Even when the inormation is not relevant What does that mean when you are exploring new options with your stakeholders?\ What happens if there is someone who knows a lot about something? Conjunction/ Ambiguity This also shows itslef as the ambiguity effect, where missing information makes the probability seem unknown.
- The power of now! Why we do bad things Bird in the hand Requirements will be very now focussed. If you want to know about the long term, you will have to dig for it. Strategies require a long term view. This why we are so bad at modifying our diet to lose weight. Also, it is my theory this is why it is so hard to get people to sign off requirements specs (for those of you that still do them…) hyperbolic discounting has been observed in rats, pigeons, and monkeys
- Story about Christian and Anchoring bias. We all use it already. Look at the order! Making numbers look smaller increases their appeal A favourite of advertisers Story about Ghandi 30 80 (78)
- Story about Christian and Anchoring bias. Making numbers look smaller increases their appearl I really couldn’t see how it would work, but somehow it did….
- University Events team Trip to the countryside, clubs, crafts, sports, big name bands Ticketing system We express solutions in terms of their benefits Benefits, efficient, e-tickets instead of paper, getting people in quickly, easy refunds, no cash 2 options – SaaS and own build. Hung up on’loss’ from SaaS Rephrased both in terms of least loss.
- Projects run to time – rigt? We estimate, get the estimates right and it all work smoothly. No. Projects overrun. We build whole structures for dealing with overruns. But why? Surely we learn. No we don’t……
- In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted.[9]
- This is the Planning Fallacy In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted.[9]
- I was hit by the optimism bias writing this presentation. You may ntice that the slides in the conference pack are not the same as I am showing you now. I thought I’d get it competed by the deadline,, and I didn’t ….
- Pot calling the kettle black
- So o the understadning your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do? We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more. 40-45 Minutes
- Study done in 2010 Israeli judge parole hearings when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
- Study done in 2010 Israeli judge parole hearings when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo. So o the understadning your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do? We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more.
- Everything from heard of rampaging elephants Elephant in the room that no-one talks about Who have a check list – you don’t have to act fast.
- Try something different, don’t let people fall into patterns of behaviour as their brains swithch off. Stretch yourself and them Game storming is great
- Cognitive baises kick in when you need to act fast. Do you need to act fast? Can you sleep on it. Can you go for a walk round the office to grab a coffee.
- Saying something out loud slows you down, having to explain something to other people makes you think it through. They may have more meaning from you, or spot your biases.
- We have looked at examples of how CB’s can affect you at all stages of your process and what you can do about it. From making sure that you don’t just keep banging on at something and take proper breaks, to trying new techniques in workshops to get people to think diferently and stir up the status quo. It’s a fascinating area, and I’m no expert, but incresed understanding helps me understnd why people do what they do sometimes.