Think again!
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The cognitive biases and fallacies that trick us into believing our plans are accurate and achievable, that people are the only barriers to a plans success and that keep us tied to our plans long after they are proved to be hopelessly wrong.
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Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
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Think again!
- 1. Paul Bowler Head of Delivery @spbowler @RadicalCo 31st January, 2013
- 2. Think again! How our decision-making processes get us into trouble
- 3. The Project
- 4. The Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target
- 5. Intention
- 6. The kickoff
- 7. Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
- 8. Iteration 1 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual
- 9. Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 10. Iteration 2 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 11. Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 12. Iteration 3 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 13. Iteration 4 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 15. The NEW Plan 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 16. Iteration 5 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 17. Iterations 6-12 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 18. What were they thinking? 0 10 20 30 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Velocity Iteration Target Actual Original
- 19. Hindsight bias
- 21. Planning fallacy
- 24. Selection bias
- 25. Confirmation Bias
- 27. Precision bias
- 28. Estimation anti-patterns • Ask an expert • Ask him (or her) face-to-face • Know the answer you want in advance • Confuse precision with accuracy • If the answer doesn’t match your figure then ask somebody else
- 29. Why was the plan accepted?
- 30. Framing effect
- 33. Survivor bias
- 34. Optimism bias
- 35. Bandwagon effect
- 37. Outcome bias
- 39. "When I'm wrong it's through circumstances beyond my control.When you're wrong it's through incompetence."
- 41. Optimism vs Blame (Hypothesis) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism Blame
- 42. Why wasn’t the project stopped?
- 45. Optimism 0 20 40 60 80 100 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Aggregateas% Iteration Optimism
- 46. Information bias
- 47. ...and many more
- 48. Where do these biases come from?
- 50. Extended Concentration 0 20 40 60 80 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Concentrationas% Elapsed Time (mins) Concentration
- 51. System1 System 2
- 53. Antidotes?
- 54. “Vigilance, persistence and a healthy dose of skepticism!” Sheena Iyengar
- 55. When unsure, think again. When certain, definitely think again!
- 56. Thank you. linkedIn: paulbowler twitter: @spbowler email: paul.bowler@radicalcompany.com web: radicalcompany.com