The document presents a case study on NBC's decision in 2009-2010 to move Jay Leno's Tonight Show to primetime and have Conan O'Brien take over as host of Tonight Show. It discusses the background of Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien. It then provides an overview of NBC's criteria for evaluating the decision, the decision-making conditions they faced, and comments from NBC executive Jeff Gaspin supporting the change. Finally, it analyzes how the decision could have been improved by using different decision-making approaches like rationality, bounded rationality, intuition, and evidence-based management.

1. Presentation on Case Application
A Curtain Fall
Presented By
Even Jasim Alam (09-14710-3)
Rahman Inzamamur (13-23124-1)
Sobhan Rahman (13-23633-1)
Hossain Md. Rakib (12-20281-1)
Hasan Riyad (13-23875-1)

2. Jay Leno
•
Veteran Comedian ,Writer and
Television host
•
Hosted NBC's The Tonight Show from
1992 to 2009.
•
In September, 2009 he was given to
host a primetime comedy show
named The Jay Leno Show
•
He was returned to The Tonight Show
in March,2010

3. Conan O’ Brien
•
Television host, writer, voice
actor
•
Started to host The Tonight
Show from September 2009
•
In January 2010 was asked
to leave The Tonight Show
with $40m agreement

4. Overview

Criteria evaluated by NBC. Appropriateness

Structured or Unstructured

Decision making condition

Jeff Gasping comment , Decision making Style

The decision’s improvement by
- Rationality
- Bounded rationality
- Intuition
- Evidence-based management.

5. Traditionally in weeknight primetime a sixty minutes scripted TV show is
broadcasted which is very expensive to produce.

6. A traditional comedy show is cheaper to produce than regular
scripted show

7. Both Leno and Conan experienced big
rating fall

8. Different types of viewer survey could be done
before implementing the decision

9. Structured Decision
A repetitive decision that can be
handled by a routine approach
Used when problem
- involve clear goal
- familiar
- easily defined
Unstructured Decision

Unique and non recurring.

Generate unique responses.
Used when problem
- new or unusual
- information is ambiguous or
incomplete.
- require custom-made solutions

10. A Radical Experiment
Broadcasting comedy show in prime time week night is
never done before.

11. Decision Making Condition

Certainty
A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision
because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.

Risk


A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood
(probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular
alternatives.
Uncertainty

Limited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for
alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to
rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”.

12. The NBC managers knew only that , the decision would save
money but didn’t able to estimate the viewer’s response
which makes condition uncertain

13. Jeff Gaspin’s Statement
Chairman of the television
entertainment of NBC universal
said about the decision “I don’t
think it’s wrong to take chances. .
. . Sometimes they work.
Sometimes they don’t.”

14. Linear Thinking
characterized by a person’s preference for using external data and
facts and processing this information through rational, logical
thinking to guide decisions and actions

15. Nonlinear Thinking
Characterized by a preference for internal sources of information
(feelings and intuition) and processing this information with internal
insights, feelings, and hunches to guide decisions and actions

16. Nonlinear Thinker
Mr. Gaspin appears to have a non-linear thinking style.
Due to the lack of existing information, Mr. Gaspin decided
to take a chance and use his own feelings and intuition to
guide his actions. Someone with a linear style would have
requested more information and probably tested the
concept more thoroughly before committing the network
to a final decision.

17. Rationality

In a rational decision making process, a business manager will often employ a series of
analytical steps to review relevant facts, observations and possible outcomes before
choosing a particular course of action.

The network executives would have followed a series of logical steps to help them reach
the decision about prime-time format. This would have included a thorough evaluation of
the decision criteria, criteria weights, possible alternatives, and evaluation of those
alternative’s outcomes

18. Bounded Rationality

Rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the
cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time
they have to make a decision

The decision would have been made based on a limited set of
criteria and alternatives

19. Intuition

Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment

A number of factors would have been considered including past experience,
manager feelings, manager’s skills, subconscious mental process, and managerial
values.

20. Evidence Based Management

The systematic use of the best available evidence to improve
management practice

The managers would have relied on available information on the
success of similar formats.